Scientia Geographica Sinica  2015 , 35 (12): 1622-1630

Orginal Article

干旱区内陆河流域农户对水资源紧缺的感知及适应 ——以石羊河中下游为例

赵雪雁1, 薛冰2

1.西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730070
2.中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,辽宁 沈阳 110016

Farmers’ Perception of Water Resource Shortage and Adaption in Continental River Basin of Arid Zone:A Case of the Middle-lower Reaches of the Shiyang River

ZHAO Xue-yan1, XUE Bing2

1.College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou,Gansu 730070, China
2. Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, Liaoning 110016, China

中图分类号:  X144

文献标识码:  A

文章编号:  1000-0690(2015)12-1622-09

收稿日期: 2014-12-31

修回日期:  2015-09-12

网络出版日期:  2015-01-20

版权声明:  2015 《地理科学》编辑部 本文是开放获取期刊文献,在以下情况下可以自由使用:学术研究、学术交流、科研教学等,但不允许用于商业目的.

基金资助:  国家自然科学基金项目(41361106、4147116)、教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NECT-11-0910)、甘肃省高校基本科研业务费项目资助

作者简介:

作者简介:赵雪雁(1971-),女,甘肃武都人,教授,主要从事生态经济研究。E-mail:zhaoxy@nwnu.edu.cn

展开

摘要

内陆河流域水资源极为紧缺,理解农户对水资源紧缺的感知及适应策略选择倾向对于制定科学的水资源管理政策至关重要。以石羊河中下游为研究区,基于农户调查数据,分析了农户对水资源紧缺的感知及适应策略,并利用经济计量模型分析了农户的水资源紧缺性感知对其适应策略选择的影响。结果发现: 农户感知到的水资源紧缺可能性、严重性、适应功效及适应成本均较高,但感知到的自我效能处于中等水平; 水资源紧缺风险感知与适应功效感知、适应成本感知呈显著正相关,其与自我效能感知虽呈负相关,但并不显著; 农户的适应策略多样化指数达2.80,水资源紧缺严重性感知、适应功效感知、适应成本感知及自我效能感知与适应策略多样化指数呈显著正相关;随着风险感知与适应功效感知的增强,农户首选收缩型策略的概率增大,但随着自我效能感知的增强,农户首选收缩型策略的概率降低。最后,提出了增强农户适应能力的对策建议及未来需进一步关注的问题。

关键词: 石羊河中下游 ; 农户 ; 水资源紧缺 ; 感知 ; 适应

Abstract

In recent years, the farmer’s perception of environment change and their adaption strategies has been the research focus of the adaptation domain. Water resource shortage is the most serious environmental problem in the continental river basin of arid zone, it is badly in need of looking for the effective adaptation strategies in order to reduce the adverse impact of water resource shortage. Understanding the farmers’ perception of water resource shortage and adaption strategy selection is very important to determine the proper adaptation strategy and make scientific water resource management policy. Selecting the middle-lower reaches of the Shiyang River as the study case and through stratified random sampling survey, participatory rural appraisal and investigation of plots, 367 household are investigated and sampled. Based on the investigation data and the MPPACC (a socio - cognitive model of private proactive adaptation to climate change ) analysis framework which Grothmann and Patt provided, we analyze the farmers’ perception of water resource shortage and their adaption strategies, and analyze the impact of the farmers’ water resource shortage perception on theirs adaption strategies by multiple linear regression model and binary logistic model. The results show: 1)These perception index are relatively high which include the farmer’s water resource shortage possibility perception, severity perception ,adaption effect and adaption cost perception, the index of these perception is 4.65, 4.69, 4.19 and 4.38,respectively. However, the perception of self-efficacy is middle level and its index is 3.02; 2) The relationship between the farmers’ water resource shortage risk perception and the adaption effect perception , the adaption cost perception are significant positive correlation, but the relationship between the risk perception and the adaption cost perception is insignificant negative correlation; 3)The diversification index of the farmers’ adaption strategy is 2.80, and the relationship between the diversification index of adaption strategy and the farmers’ severity perception ,adaption effect perception, adaption cost perception and self-efficacy perception are significant positive correlation;4) These perceptions which include risk perception, adaption effect perception and self- self-efficacy perception significantly influence the type of first adaption strategy. With the index of risk perception and adaption effect perception strengthening, the probability of prefer choice of contract adaption strategy will increase. However, with the index of self-efficacy perception strengthening, the probability of prefer choice of contract adaption strategy will decrease. Finally, we present the measures and proposals about promoting the farmers’ adaption ability and some potential improvements in some further researches.

Keywords: the middle-lower reaches of the Shiyang River ; farmers ; water resource shortage ; perception ; adaption

0

PDF (467KB) 元数据 多维度评价 相关文章 收藏文章

本文引用格式 导出 EndNote Ris Bibtex

赵雪雁, 薛冰. 干旱区内陆河流域农户对水资源紧缺的感知及适应 ——以石羊河中下游为例[J]. , 2015, 35(12): 1622-1630 https://doi.org/

ZHAO Xue-yan, XUE Bing. Farmers’ Perception of Water Resource Shortage and Adaption in Continental River Basin of Arid Zone:A Case of the Middle-lower Reaches of the Shiyang River[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015, 35(12): 1622-1630 https://doi.org/

人类如何适应环境变化已成为全社会普遍关注的话题,全球变化的四大科学计划——世界气候研究计划(WCRP)、国际全球环境变化人文因素计划(IHDP)、国际地圈生物圈计划(IGBP)和国际生物多样性计划(DIVERSITAS)都将科学地适应未来环境变化作为人类社会保持可持续发展的重要准则[1],探索有效的适应对策与适应模式已成为环境变化适应性研究的前沿领域和核心内容[2]。然而,对环境变化的适应并不是一个纯粹理性的技术过程,而是一个有价值取向并嵌入在一定社会背景中的高度主观过程,其中,环境变化感知作为人们适应环境变化冲击的关键因素,不仅影响着人们的环保意向及应对策略的选择倾向,更影响着有关适应计划的执行效果。近年来,公众感知作为理解人文适应行动的基础日益受到关注[3,4],它为探明人类对环境变化的适应机制与适应过程提供了一个新视角。

知晓农户的感知情况与现有的适应行为,对于应对环境变化非常重要。当前,国内外学者已围绕农户的环境变化感知与适应行为开展了大量研究工作[5,6],发现环境变化感知是影响适应的必要因素[7],农户对环境变化的认知水平对其是否采取适应性行为、采取哪种适应行为影响显著[8,9],而且农村社团对资源紧缺的感知可促进农户相互学习与交流,增强对资源的有效管理[10]。但目前,对农户的个人适应决策缺少的定量分析,尤其缺乏环境变化感知对适应决策影响的定量研究[9]

石羊河流域属于典型的资源型缺水地区,在全球气候变化与人类活动的干扰下,上游来水量减少,中下游水资源日渐紧缺。农户作为石羊河流域最主要的经济活动主体以及水资源利用的最直接单元,成为水资源紧缺的最直接承受者,水资源紧缺的不利影响与农户的弱适应能力相结合,加剧了农户的生计脆弱性;与此同时,农户也是水资源变化的最直接感知者,他们对水资源变化的感知和适应也为决策提供了最基础的信息反馈。

了解农户对水资源紧缺的感知及其应对策略选择倾向,对于制定科学的水资源管理政策至关重要。为此,基于农户调查数据,本文分析了石羊河中下游农户对水资源紧缺的感知及其应对策略,辨识了农户的水资源紧缺风险感知与适应感知之间的关系,探讨了农户的水资源紧缺性感知对其适应策略选择的影响,旨在为探明农户对环境变化的适应过程与适应机制提供借鉴,并为内陆河流域制定有效的水资源管理政策提供科学依据。

1 研究区、数据来源与研究方法

1.1 研究区

石羊河流域位于甘肃省河西走廊东端、祁连山北麓,发源于祁连山区冷龙岭冰川。上游祁连山区年降水量300~600 mm,年蒸发量700~1 200 mm,为径流形成区;中游流经走廊平地,形成武威和永昌诸绿洲,降水量150~250 mm,年蒸发量1 300~2 000 mm;下游为民勤绿洲,年降水量不足150 mm,年蒸发量高达2 000~2 600 mm。石羊河流域水资源总量为16.85×108 m3,人均水资源为756 m3,仅为国际公认的缺水紧张警戒线1 700 m3的44.47%,水资源开发利用程度超过170%,远超过全国水资源开发利用率19.50% [11]

受气候变化与人类活动的影响,石羊河上游祁连山区出山径流量减少,中下游水资源日渐紧缺,尤其位于下游的民勤绿洲入境水量大幅度减少,从20世纪50年代的5.81×108 m3降至2008年的1.29×108 m3,水资源供需矛盾日趋尖锐,致使地下水超采严重,地下水位以0.5~1.0 m/a的速度下降,地下水矿化度高达4~6 g/L,天然植被大面积死亡,荒漠化扩展、盐渍化加剧,原本脆弱的生态环境急剧恶化 [12],对食物、水安全、公共健康、自然资源和生物多样性等造成严重威胁,使之成为中国内陆河流域中人口最密集、水资源开发利用程度最高、用水矛盾最突出、生态环境问题最严重的流域之一。

1.2 数据来源

课题组于2014年1月在石羊河流域进行了20余日的野外调查。首先,在县级部门和各乡镇收集了资源环境、社会经济统计资料;然后采用调查问卷、观察法、小型座谈会等参与式农村评估(PRA)工具进行农户调查,以获取研究所需的数据及信息。入户调查中,采取分层随机抽样法选取受访农户,在中游抽取5个乡镇,每个乡镇抽取一个村,每个村调查50户;下游抽取3个乡镇,每个乡镇抽取一个村,每村调查65户,共调查农户445户农户,删除信息不全的问卷,收回有效问卷367份,其中,中游179户、下游188户。受访户的平均家庭规模为4.67人/户,家庭劳动力数量为3.10人/户,人均年收入为7 193.63元。与下游受访户相比,中游受访户的家庭规模相对较大,但劳动力数量相对较小,其家庭规模为4.71人/户,而劳动力数量仅为2.81人/户;下游受访户的劳动力受教育程度高于中游受访户,其中,下游农户中文盲及小学程度的劳动力比重为25.51%,比中游农户低23.9个百分点;而大专以上的劳动力比重达22.36%,比中游农户高18.16个百分点。中游农户的人均年收入高于下游农户,为8 332.84元,相当于下游农户的1.37倍。受访农户数量虽较少,但与统计资料 (① 武威市统计局.武威统计年鉴(2014),2014.)对比发现,样本基本上能反映研究区农户的基本情况,具有一定的代表性(表1)。

表1   石羊河中下游受访户的特征

Table 1   The farmers’ information in the middle-lower reaches of the Shiyang River

农户类型家庭规模(人/户)劳动力数量
(人/户)
劳动力受教育程度(%)人均年收入(元)
文盲小学初中高中大专及以上
中游受访户4.712.816.1843.2334.4611.954.188332.84
下游受访户4.633.384.4121.1026.4625.6722.366103.15
全体受访户4.673.105.1930.8729.9919.6114.347193.63

新窗口打开

基于预调查中对村社干部及农户的访谈,设计了调查问卷。调查内容主要包括:① 农户的基本情况,包括家庭规模、家庭成员的受教育程度及健康状况、家庭收入、拥有的耕地面积、住房及耐用消费品等;② 农户所从事的生计方式,包括家庭劳动力的投入方向、农户的收入来源等;③ 农户对水资源紧缺的感知,包括农户对未来水资源紧缺可能性的感知、水资源紧缺对其生计损害程度的感知、对适应行动减缓负面影响的预期效果感知、对自身适应能力的感知、对适应行动的预期成本感知;④ 农户应对水资源紧缺的具体措施。

1.3 研究方法

1.3.1 农户对水资源紧缺的感知测量

Grothmann and Patt[13]提出的个人主动适应气候变化的社会认知模型(a socio - cognitive Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change,简称MPPACC)把感知作为影响适应行为的关键变量,不仅考察了人们的气候影响感知,而且拓展了对适应能力感知的分析,已在环境变化适应性研究中得到广泛应用[14]。基于MPPACC分析框架,本研究将农户对水资源紧缺的感知分解为风险感知与适应感知,其中,风险感知又分解为严重性感知与可能性感知,适应感知分解为适应功效感知、自我效能感知以及适应成本感知。通过向农户询问相关问题来获取农户的风险感知与适应感知信息(表2)。为了便于检验不同区域农户的水资源紧缺性感知是否存在差异,对各问题的答案进行了赋值;将不同区域农户的各指标赋值加总平均后得到该区域农户的感知度指数。

Pmj=1ni=1npmij(1)

式中:pmij为第j个区域第i个农户的第m种感知度赋值,n为第j个区域的农户个数,Pmj为第j个区域农户的第m种感知度指数。

1.3.2 适应策略多样化指数

为了描述农户应对水资源紧缺的策略多样化程度,特引入适应策略多样化指数,即将农户所采取的每种适应策略赋值为1,如某户采取节水技术、种植低耗水作物2种应对策略,则其多样化指数值为2。最后,对不同区域的农户适应策略多样化指数取平均值,则得出该区域农户的水资源紧缺适应策略多样化指数平均值。

1.3.3 水资源紧缺性感知对适应策略选择的影响分析模型

本研究采用二元logistic模型分析农户的水资源紧缺性感知对其适应策略选择的影响,并利用最大似然估计法对其回归参数进行估计。将农户的首选适应策略类型设置为0-1型因变量yi,其中,收缩型策略设定为yi=1,调节型策略设定为yi=0。假定xi是自变量,Piyi事件发生的概率,相应的回归模型如下:

Pi=Exp(β0+β1xi1++βmxim)/(1+Exp(β0+β1xi1++βmxim))(2)

式中:β0为常数,β1,β2,…,βm为回归系数,表示诸因素ximPi的贡献量。

表2   农户对水资源紧缺性感知的测度指标及赋值

Table 2   The measure index and evaluation of the farmer’s perception for water resource shortage

指标测度问题赋值均值标准差
风险感知严重性感知水资源紧缺对生计的损害是否严重?根本不严重为1,不太严重为2;一般为3;较严重为4;非常严重为54.650.58
可能性感知未来水资源紧缺程度加剧的可能性有多大?根本不可能为1;不太可能为2;一般为3;有可能为4;肯定会为54.690.56
适应感知适应效能感知适应行动减轻水资源紧缺负面影响的效果如何?非常低为1;较低为2;一般为3;较强为4;非常强为54.190.85
自我效能感知适应水资源紧缺的能力有多大?非常低为1;较低为2;一般为3;较强为4;非常强为53.021.02
适应成本感知采取适应行动的预期成本有多大?非常低为1;较低为2;一般为3;较高为4;非常高为54.380.67

新窗口打开

2 结果分析

2.1 农户对水资源紧缺的感知

2.1.1 农户对水资源紧缺的风险感知

水资源紧缺已成为石羊河中下游农户面临的最严峻生态问题,农户对未来水资源紧缺的可能性感知比较强烈,有72.25%的受访户认为未来水资源紧缺程度肯定会加剧,可能性感知指数达4.69(表3)。与下游农户相比,中游农户的可能性感知指数相对较高,达4.77,而下游为4.61。其中,中游有78.21%的受访户认为未来水资源紧缺肯定会加剧,而下游仅有67.55%的受访户持此观点。

表3   石羊河中下游农户对水资源紧缺的感知指数

Table 3   The index of farmers’ water resource shortage perception in the middle-lower reaches of the Shiyang River

农户类型水资源紧缺风险感知水资源紧缺适应感知
严重性感知可能性感知适应功效感知自我效能感知适应成本感知
中游受访户4.744.774.243.014.52
下游受访户4.564.614.133.044.26
全体受访户4.654.694.193.024.38

新窗口打开

水资源紧缺加剧了石羊河中下游农户的生计脆弱性,有68.94%的受访户认为水资源紧缺对其生计影响严重,严重性感知指数达4.65(表3)。与下游农户相比,中游农户的严重性感知指数相对较高,达4.74,有78.77%的受访户认为水资源紧缺对其生计影响严重,而下游只有59.57%的受访户持此观点。总体来看,石羊河中、下游农户对水资源紧缺的风险感知均较强,且中游农户的风险感知更强烈。

究其原因在于,农户的水资源紧缺风险感知不仅受信息、社会舆论的影响,更受农户的客观适应能力、过去的风险经验、认知偏见与直观判断等因素的影响。石羊河流域属于典型的资源型缺水区,加之近年来上游出山径流量减少、变幅加剧,致使中下游水资源愈发紧缺,故中、下游农户的水资源紧缺风险感知均比较强烈。同时,随着石羊河流域水量调度方案的实施,中游水资源可利用量有所减少,而下游来水量增加(2012年蔡旗断面总径流达到了3.48×108 m3 (① 民勤县统计局. 民勤县2013年国民经济和社会发展统计资料汇编,2014.),且该水量调度方案在未来仍将执行,故中游农户的水资源紧缺风险感知更强烈。访谈中,大部分中游农户也提出由于给下游调水,他们的水资源可利用量明显比以前减少,水资源紧缺程度加剧;而部分下游农户则反映实施调水方案后,来水量明显增多,水资源紧缺程度有所缓解,生态环境也有所改善。

2.1.2 农户对水资源紧缺的适应感知

石羊河中下游农户感知到的水资源适应功效比较强,有86.65% 的受访户认为采取措施能有效缓解水资源紧缺,适应功效感知指数为4.19(表3)。其中,中游农户的适应功效感知指数高于下游农户,达4.24。其中,中游仅有2.23% 的受访户认为采取措施无法缓解水资源紧缺,而下游持此观点的受访户比重高达9.57%。访谈中,下游农户也反映他们虽采取各种办法来缓解水资源紧缺程度,但效果并不明显。

农户感知到的自我效能处于中等水平,仅有13.35%的受访户认为自身适应能力非常强,自我效能感知指数仅为3.02(表3)。其中,下游农户的自我效能感知指数相对较高,为3.04,有26.06%受访户认为自身适应能力差,而中游该比重高达30.73%。总体来看,石羊河中下游农户对自身适应能力缺乏充分的信心,与其风险感知形成一定反差。

农户感知到的水资源紧缺适应成本比较高,适应成本感知指数达4.38,仅有0.81%的受访户认为适应成本低(表3)。与下游农户相比,中游农户的适应成本感知指数相对较高,为4.52,有56.24%的受访户认为适应水资源紧缺的成本非常高,而下游仅有38.30%的受访户持此观点。访谈中,大部分农户反映适应水资源紧缺所需的成本比较高,自身没有能力负担,且大部分农户指出水资源紧缺问题是由多种因素引起的,单靠农户根本不可能得到有效解决。

为了进一步明确农户的水资源紧缺性感知之间的关系,采用Pearson相关分析法检验可能性感知、严重性感知、适应功效感知、自我效能感知与适应成本感知之间的关系(表4)。相关矩阵显示:水资源紧缺严重性感知与可能性感知呈显著正相关,相关系数达0.446,表明水资源紧缺对农户生计的影响程度越严重,农户越认为未来水资源紧缺程度有可能加剧,反之亦反。水资源紧缺风险感知与适应功效感知、适应成本感知呈显著正相关,与自我效能感知虽呈负相关,但相关性并不显著。表明农户对水资源紧缺的风险感知越强烈,越认同适应行动在缓解水资源紧缺中所起的作用;同时,农户对水资源紧缺的风险感知越强烈,采取适应行动的预期成本也越高。水资源紧缺适应功效感知、自我效能感知及适应成本感知呈显著正相关。可见,农户对水资源紧缺的风险感知与适应感知并非完全独立的,而是存在着一定的相关性,各种感知交织在一起共同影响着农户的适应行为决策。

表4   水资源紧缺性感知与适应策略多样化指数的相关矩阵

Table 4   The correlation matrix of the farmers’ water resource shortage perception and the diversity index of adaptation strategy in the middle-lower reaches of the Shiyang River

水资源紧缺性感知严重性感知可能性感知适应功效感知自我效能感知适应成本感知
严重性感知1.0000.446***0.122**-0.0270.337***
可能性感知0.446***1.0000.174***0.0370.235***
适应功效感知0.122**0.174***1.0000.266***0.086*
自我效能感知-0.0270.0370.266***1.0000.174***
适应成本感知0.337***0.235***0.086*0.174***1.000
适应策略多样化指数0.057*0.0230.122**0.141***0.124**

注:*在0.1水平(双侧)上显著,**在0.05水平(双侧)上显著;***在0.01水平(双侧)上显著。

新窗口打开

2.2 农户应对水资源紧缺的主要策略

为了更好地解析农户应对水资源紧缺的主要策略,可将其分为3类:扩张型策略,旨在扩大农业投资及生产规模的策略,例如,购进土地或水权、增加灌溉面积等;调节型策略,旨在通过采取不同的水管理实践而适应水资源紧缺,例如,改善灌溉设施及管理制度、 种植节水型作物等;收缩型策略,旨在减少农业投资及生产规模的策略,例如出售土地、减少灌溉面积、出售水权等[15]。调查结果显示,石羊河中下游农户主要采取收缩型策略与调节型策略应对水资源紧缺,其中,所采取的收缩型策略包括关井压田、弃耕;所采取的调节型策略包括利用节水技术、种植低耗水作物、发展特色林果业。

为了有效地应对水资源紧缺,石羊河中下游农户往往同时采取几种应对策略,适应策略多样化指数为2.80。其中,农户选择最多的适应策略为关井压田,其次为采用节水技术,再次为种植低耗水作物,分别有77.66%、72.25%、54.59%的受访户选择了这3种策略。其中,中游农户的适应策略多样化指数仅为2.42,而下游达3.15(表5)。可见,与中游农户相比,下游农户更倾向于采取多种策略应对水资源紧缺。访谈中,下游农户也反映由于水资源极为紧缺,为了满足生产生活需求,只能采取多种措施提高水资源利用效率。

石羊河中下游农户首选的适应策略类型存在差别,中游农户更倾向于首选调节型策略,而下游农户更倾向于首选收缩型策略。其中,中游有53.07%的受访户首选调节型策略,而下游56.38%的受访户首选收缩型策略(表5)。这主要因为,石羊河中、下游农户面临的水资源紧缺程度与水环境质量存在差异,下游因长期超采地下水,致使地下水位下降、水质恶化,加之下游地方政府强制关闭水质较差的取水井,退耕荒漠-绿洲过渡带内肥力差、防护措施不健全的耕地,故下游首选收缩型策略的农户比重较高。进一步分析发现,在调节型策略中,中游首选发展林果业、种植低耗水作物的农户比例相对较高,而下游首选节水技术的农户比例相对较高。可见,中游农户更倾向于采取结构型节水方式应对水资源紧缺,强调从每滴水中获取更多的效益,而下游农户更倾向于采取技术型节水方式应对水资源紧缺,强调对每滴水进行更多的利用[16]

表5   石羊河中下游农户的水资源紧缺适应策略(%)

Table 5   The different type of farmers’ risk strategies in the Shiyang River downstream (%)

适应策略中游下游全体受访户
选择该策略首选该策略选择该策略首选该策略选择该策略首选该策略
关井压田71.5145.8186.1756.9179.0251.50
采用节水技术58.6622.3583.5125.0071.3918.26
发展特色林果业34.4319.5549.479.0443.6014.17
种植低耗水作物44.6912.2963.839.0454.5010.63
弃耕26.26031.93029.160
适应策略多样化指数2.423.152.80

新窗口打开

2.3 农户的水资源紧缺性感知对其响应策略选择的影响

2.3.1 水资源紧缺性感知对适应策略多样化指数的影响

利用Pearson相关分析法检验水资源紧缺性感知与适应策略多样化指数之间的相关性(表4)。结果显示,水资源紧缺严重性感知、适应功效感知、适应成本感知、自我效能感知均与其适应策略多样化指数显著正相关。表明,水资源紧缺严重性感知、适应功效感知、适应成本感知及自我效能感知越强烈,农户采取的适应策略越多样。

研究发现,家庭或个人的资本状况是理解其所拥有的选择机会、采取的生计策略和应对所处环境风险的基础[17,18]。本研究基于笔者[19]及其他学者[20]的相关研究,充分考虑石羊河中下游的生态环境、资源禀赋与农户生计的特殊性设计出了农户的生计资本测量指标及其赋值,并采用极差标准化方法对各指标值进行标准化处理,利用专家咨询法确定了指标权重,运用加权求和法测算出了农户的生计资本指数(表6)。

为了进一步明确农户的水资源紧缺性感知与适应策略多样化程度之间的关系,以农户的适应策略多样化指数为因变量,以农户的水资源紧缺严重性感知、可能性感知、适应功效感知、自我效能感知、适应成本感知为自变量;以农户拥有的生计资本为控制变量,并引入地区虚拟变量(下游:是=1,否=0),采用多元回归模型分析二者之间的关系(表7中的模型1)。

利用最小二乘法拟合农户的水资源紧缺性感知与其适应策略多样化指数的关系,模型1的拟合优度达到0.532,F统计量为9.761,在0.001水平上显著,说明方程拟合较好,上述变量能解释农户适应策略多样化程度的53.2%。

结果显示,农户的水资源严重性感知、自我效能感知、适应功效感知及适应成本感知与适应策略多样化指数均呈显著正相关,说明随着水资源紧缺的严重性感知与适应感知的增强,农户适应策略种类也将显著增加。其中,适应成本感知的系数达0.315,高于严重性感知、适应功效感知及自我效能感知的系数,说明适应成本感知对适应策略多样化程度的影响高于其他感知,适应成本感知越高,农户越倾向于采取多种策略来分担成本。

物质资本与适应策略多样化指数呈显著正相关,而自然资本、金融资本与其呈显著负相关,说明农户拥有的物质资本越多,采取的适应策略种类越多;但拥有的自然资本与金融资本越多,采取的适应策略种类越少。

2.3.2 水资源紧缺性感知对适应策略选择的影响

将农户的首选适应策略与水资源严重性感知、可能性感知、适应功效感知、适应效能感知、适应成本感知、生计资本指数以及地区虚拟变量等引入二项logistic模型分析农户的水资源紧缺性感知对其适应策略选择的影响 (表7中的模型2)。模型2的卡方检验值为54.470,显著性水平为0.000(<0.05),预测准确率为71.40%,Nagelkerke R-Square为0.484,说明上述变量可解释48.4%的农户适应策略选择。

表6   农户的生计资本测量指标、权重及赋值

Table 6   The measure index, value and weight of the farmers’ livelihood capital

指标测量指标及权重指标赋值均值标准差
人力资本家庭整体劳动能力 (0.44)非劳动力为0;半劳动力为0.5;全劳动力为1.03.8790.910
成年劳动力受教育程度 (0.56)文盲为0;小学为0.25;初中为0.5;高中为0.75;大专
及以上为1.0
1.6040.919
自然资本人均耕地面积 (1.0)人均实际耕种面积(hm22.8691.751
物质资本家庭固定资产拥有量(0.65)所拥有固定资产项数占所列选项的比例0.4960.154
住房类型及面积(0.35)混凝土房为1.0,砖瓦/砖木房为0.75,土木房为0.5,
棚圈0.25;5间房及以上为1.0,4间房为0.75,3间房
为0.5,2间为0.25,1间为0
4.7102.440
金融资本人均现金收入 (0.75)人均现金收入(元)7174.033555.84
获得信贷的机会 (0.25)有为1,无为00.8690.338
社会资本领导潜力 (0.20)家庭有村委成员为1,无为00.2100.408
对周围人的信任 (0.25)非常信任为1; 比较信任为0.75; 一般信任为0.5;
不太信任为0.25; 根本不信任为0
0.5580.279
遇到风险能帮助自己的人数 (0.55)10个以上为1;6~10个为0.75;4~6个为0.5;1~3个为
0.25;0个为0
0.3760.215

新窗口打开

表7   农户的水资源紧缺性感知对其适应策略选择的影响

Table 7   The estimated results of water resource shortage perception impacts on the farmers’ adaptation strategies in the middle-lower reaches of the Shiyang River

变量模型1模型2
系数标准差系数Wald值Exp(b)
常数-0.459**0.698-6.581**17.1350.001
严重性感知0.112*0.1120.460*3.2811.584
可能性感知-0.0040.1150.447*3.2721.564
适应功效感知0.167**0.0700.629***16.2601.875
自我效能感知0.002*0.060-0.511***16.3900.600
适应成本感知0.31***0.0930.1560.5911.168
人力资本指数0.8020.3460.2640.1321.302
自然资本指数-0.918**0.375-1.0831.8400.339
物质资本指数1.460***0.428-1.0151.2380.362
金融资本指数-1.602***0.4422.428**6.50811.341
社会资本指数0.4890.321-0.4990.5620.607
是否下游0.695***0.1320.936***10.7642.550
模型检验R20.532预测准确率71.40%Nagelkerke R Square0.484
F统计值9.761***对数似然值453.839Chi-square检验值54.470***

注:*在0.1水平上显著,**在0.05水平上显著;***在0.01水平上显著。

新窗口打开

结果显示,农户的水资源紧缺严重性感知、可能性感知、适应功效感知、自我效能感知、金融资本分别对首选策略类型具有显著影响。其中,自我效能感知对首选策略影响最大,其wald统计量高达16.390;其次为适应功效感知,其wald统计量为16.260;再次为金融资本,其wald统计量为6.508;严重性感知与可能性感知的wald统计量仅分别为3.281、3.272。

严重性感知、可能性感知、适应功效感知、金融资本的回归系数均为正值,说明随着严重性感知、可能性感知、适应功效感知的增强及金融资本的增加,农户首选收缩型策略的概率增大。其中,严重性感知、可能性感知、适应功效感知每增强1个单位,农户首选收缩型策略的概率将增加1.584倍、1.564倍、1.875倍;金融资本每增加1个单位,农户首选收缩型策略的概率将增加6.508倍; 但自我效能感知的系数为负值,其每增加1个单位,农户首选收缩型策略的概率将降低0.6倍。

3 结论与建议

3.1 结论

环境变化感知不仅影响着人们的应对策略选择倾向,更影响着有关适应计划的执行效果,当前急需辨明人们的环境变化感知特征及其对适应策略选择的影响。本文以石羊河中下游为研究区,基于入户调查数据,分析了农户对水资源紧缺的感知及适应,得出以下结论:

1) 石羊河中下游农户的水资源紧缺可能性感知、严重性感知、适应功效感知及适应成本感知均较高,但感知到的自我效能处于中等水平。

2) 石羊河中下游农户的水资源紧缺严重性感知、适应功效感知、适应成本感知及自我效能感知与其适应策略多样化指数呈显著正相关。

3) 中游农户更倾向于首选调节型策略,而下游农户更倾向于首选收缩型策略。其中,随着风险感知与适应功效感知的增强,农户首选收缩型策略的概率增大;但随着自我效能感知的增强,农户首选收缩型策略的概率降低。

3.2 建议

作为水资源变化的最主要承受者和最直接感知者,农户对水资源紧缺的感知差异及其参与支持的程度影响着石羊河流域水资源管理政策的执行效果。因此,当前应建立水资源信息发布平台,及时、准确地为农户提供水资源信息,并积极宣传水资源相关知识,以便提高农户对水资源紧缺的认知能力,为其采取有效的应对策略创造条件;其次,应积极开展节水技术、经营管理等方面的培训,提高农户的适应能力。应进一步发挥农业补贴的引导和调控作用,对采取有效措施积极应对水资源紧缺的农户进行补贴,同时,应加强对农户适应行为选择的指导,促使农户采取多样化的方式应对水资源紧缺;第三,应加强农户之间、社区之间、区域之间的合作,尤其应积极推进水权交易,以降低水资源紧缺带来的负面影响。

公众感知为探明人类对环境变化的适应机制与适应过程提供了一个新视角,但目前很少就公众感知对其适应决策的影响进行定量分析。虽然本文基于MPPACC框架分析了石羊河中下游农户对水资源紧缺的风险感知与适应感知,并解析了风险感知与适应感知对适应策略选择的影响,但并未深入剖析农户的水资源紧缺风险感知与适应感知的形成机制及其对适应的作用机制。未来需进一步了解影响水资源紧缺性感知的关键因素,分析各要素在水资源紧缺性感知形成中的作用,揭示农户的水资源紧缺性感知形成机制;了解农户的水资源紧缺性感知与其适应策略选择间的关系,探明农户的水资源紧缺性感知对其适应行为选择的作用过程及作用机制。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.


参考文献

[1] Eriksen S.

Sustainable adaptation: Emphasising local and global equity and environmental integrity

[J]. IHDP Update,2009,(2): 40-44.

URL      [本文引用: 1]     

[2] Smit B, Wandel J.

Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability

[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3) :282~292.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs.
[3] Wardekker J A, Petersen A C, et al.

Ethics and public perception of climate change: Exploring the Christian voices in the US public debate

[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2009, 19(4): 512-521.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.07.008      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

Climate change raises many questions with strong moral and ethical dimensions that are important to address in climate-policy formation and international negotiations. Particularly in the United States, the public discussion of these dimensions is strongly influenced by religious groups and leaders. Over the past few years, many religious groups have taken positions on climate change, highlighting its ethical dimensions. This paper aims to explore these ethical dimensions in the US public debate in relation to public support for climate policies. It analyzes in particular the Christian voices in the US public debate on climate change by typifying the various discourses. Three narratives emerge from this analysis: ‘conservational stewardship’ (conserving the ‘garden of God’ as it was created), ‘developmental stewardship’ (turning the wilderness into a garden as it should become) and ‘developmental preservation’ (God's creation is good and changing; progress and preservation should be combined). The different narratives address fundamental ethical questions, dealing with stewardship and social justice, and they provide proxies for public perception of climate change in the US. Policy strategies that pay careful attention to the effects of climate change and climate policy on the poor – in developing nations and the US itself – may find support among the US population. Religious framings of climate change resonate with the electorates of both progressive and conservative politicians and could serve as bridging devices for bipartisan climate-policy initiatives.
[4] Jones L, Boyd E.

Exploring social barriers to adaptation: Insights from Western Nepal

[J]. Global Environmental Change,2011, 21(4):1262-1274.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.06.002      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

As the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change become increasingly apparent, the need for facilitating successful adaptation and enhancing adaptive capacity within the context of sustainable development is clear. With adaptation high on the agenda, the notion of limits and barriers to adaptation has recently received much attention within both academic and policymaking spheres. While emerging literature has been quick to depict limits and barriers in terms of natural, financial, or technologic processes, there is a clear shortfall in acknowledging social barriers to adaptation. It is against such a backdrop that this paper sets out to expose and explore some of the underlying features of social barriers to adaptation, drawing on insights from two case studies in the Western Nepal. This paper exposes the significant role of cognitive, normative and institutional factors in both influencing and prescribing adaptation. It explores how restrictive social environments can limit adaptation actions and influence adaptive capacity at the local level, particularly for the marginalised and socially excluded. The findings suggest a need for greater recognition of the diversity and complexity of social barriers, strategic planning and incorporation at national and local levels, as well as an emphasis on tackling the underlying drivers of vulnerability and social exclusion.
[5] Ole M, Cheikh M, Anette R, et al.

Farmer’s perception of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel

[J]. Environmental Management,2009, 43(5):804-816.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-008-9197-0      Magsci      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

<a name="Abs1"></a>Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.
[6] Gandure S, Walker S, Both J J..

URL      [本文引用: 1]     

[7] Below T B, Mutabazi K D, et al.

Can farmers’ adaptation to climate change be explained by socioeconomic household-level variables?

[J].Global Environmental Change, 2012, 22(1): 223-235.

URL      [本文引用: 1]     

[8] Tucker C M, Eakin H, Castellanos E J.

Perceptions of risk and adaptation: coffee producers, market shocks, and extreme weather in Central America and Mexico

[J]. Global Environmental Change ,2010,20( 1): 23-32.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.07.006      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

This article explores the role of risk perception in adaptation to stress through comparative case studies of coffee farmers鈥 responses to climatic and non-climatic stressors. We hypothesized that farmers associating these changes with high risk would be more likely to make adaptations than those who saw the events as part of normal variation. Nevertheless, we found that farmers who associated events with high risk were not more likely to engage in specific adaptations. Adaptive responses were more clearly associated with access to land than perception of risk, suggesting that adaptation is more a function of exogenous constraints on decision making than perception.
[9] Park S E, Marshall N A, Jakku E, et al.

Informing adaptation responses to climate change through theories of transformation

[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2012,22(1):115-126.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.003      URL      [本文引用: 2]      摘要

Transformative actions are increasingly being required to address changes in climate. As an aid to understanding and supporting informed decision-making regarding transformative change, we draw on theories from both the resilience and vulnerability literature to produce the Adaptation Action Cycles concept and applied framework. The resulting Adaptation Action Cycles provides a novel conceptualisation of incremental and transformative adaptation as a continuous process depicted by two concentric and distinct, yet linked, action learning cycles. Each cycle represents four stages in the decision-making process, which are considered to be undertaken over relatively short timeframes. The concept is translated into an applied framework by adopting a contextual, actor-focused suite of questions at each of the four stages. This approach compliments existing theories of transition and transformation by operationalising assessments at the individual and enterprise level. Empirical validation of the concept was conducted by collaborating with members of the Australian wine industry to assess their decisions and actions taken in response to climate change. The contiguous stages represented in the Adaptation Action Cycles aptly reflected the diverse range of decision-making and action pathways taken in recent years by those interviewed. Results suggest that incremental adaptation decision-making processes have distinct characteristics, compared with those used in transformative adaptation. We provide empirical data to support past propositions suggesting dependent relationships operate between incremental and transformative scales of adaptation.
[10] Kelkar U, Narula K K, Sharma V P, et al.

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and water stress in Uttarakhand State, India

[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2008,18(4): 56-574.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.09.003      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

This paper presents a participatory approach to investigate vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate variability and water stress in the Lakhwar watershed in Uttarakhand State, India. Highly water stressed microwatersheds were identified by modelling surface runoff, soil moisture development, lateral runoff, and groundwater recharge. The modelling results were shared with communities in two villages, and timeline exercises were carried out to allow them to trace past developments that have impacted their lives and livelihoods, and stimulate discussion about future changes and possible adaptation interventions.
[11] 刘昌明,李中锋.

民勤绿洲的生态修复必须强化石羊河全流域水资源综合管理

[J].中国水利,2013,(5):16~18.

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2013.05.008      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

正石羊河流域处于我国外流与内陆流域接壤地带,在国家生态安全中占有重要地位。流域气候干旱少雨,蒸发力旺盛,水资源缺乏,下游的广大盆地仅靠其上游山区小部分地区的降雨和冰雪提供水源。多年平均地表水资源量15.75亿m3,与地表水不重复的地下水资源量1.1亿m3,水资源总量16.85亿m3。亩均水资源272m3,人均756 m3,人均水资源仅为国际公认的缺水紧张警戒线3的44%。随着经济社会的快速发展,石羊河流域成为我国
[12] 张学斌,石培基,罗君,.

基于景观格局的干旱内陆河流域生态风险分析——以石羊河流域为例

[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(3):410~419.

https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.2014.03.005      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

?合理评估流域生态风险,对于优化流域景观格局、建立流域生态风险预警机制、降低流域生态环境风险、维护流域生态功能具有十分重要的意义。文章以干旱内陆河典型流域为研究对象,以三期遥感数据为基础,构建生态风险指数,结合ArcGIS的空间分析功能,对流域生态风险的时空特征进行分析,结果表明:1987—2010年,流域景观发生较大了变化,草地面积减少12.73×104hm2,未利用地面积增加15.59×104hm2;将生态风险划分为5个等级,其中低生态风险区向流域上游不断迁移,面积减少31.89×104hm2,较低生态风险区向上游和中游不断延伸,面积增加29.30×104hm2,高生态风险区向下游不断扩展,面积增加58.69×104hm2;流域生态风险转换方式共有7种,低向高等级转化的总面积为122.56×104hm2,高向低等级转化的总面积为6.12×104hm2,生态风险呈增高趋势。
[13] Grothmann T, Patt A.

Adaptive capacity and human cognition: The process of individual adaptation to climate change

[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2005, 15(3):199-21.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.01.002      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

Adaptation has emerged as an important area of research and assessment among climate change scientists. Most scholarly work has identified resource constraints as being the most significant determinants of adaptation. However, empirical research on adaptation has so far mostly not addressed the importance of measurable and alterable psychological factors in determining adaptation. Drawing from the literature in psychology and behavioural economics, we develop a socio-cognitive Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC). MPPACC separates out the psychological steps to taking action in response to perception, and allows one to see where the most important bottlenecks occur—including risk perception and perceived adaptive capacity, a factor largely neglected in previous climate change research. We then examine two case studies—one from urban Germany and one from rural Zimbabwe—to explore the validity of MPPACC to explaining adaptation. In the German study, we find that MPPACC provides better statistical power than traditional socio-economic models. In the Zimbabwean case study, we find a qualitative match between MPPACC and adaptive behaviour. Finally, we discuss the important implications of our findings both on vulnerability and adaptation assessments, and on efforts to promote adaptation through outside intervention.
[14] Kuruppu N, Liverman,D.

Mental preparation for climate adaptation: The role of cognition and culture in enhancing adaptive capacity of water management in Kiribati

[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2011, 21(2) :657-669.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.12.002      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

In many Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), such as in Kiribati, formal national adaptation programmes are currently being operationalised or are in the pipeline. A key focus is on motivating householders to adapt in anticipation of climate change through pilot community projects. In this paper, we argue that the water sector must pay equal attention to how communities cognitively perceive the process of adaptation if interventions are to be effective. Adopting a cognitive model to gain such insights we conclude that individual's belief in their own abilities to manage water stress play a crucial role in driving intentions to adapt and therefore greater attention needs to be placed on understanding the underling drivers shaping such beliefs.
[15] Wheeler S, Zuo A, Bjornlund H.

Farmers’ climate change beliefs and adaptation strategies for a water scarce future in Australia

[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2013, 23(2):537-547.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.008      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

Climate change is likely to require irrigators in Australia's Murray-Darling Basin to cope with less water, which will require ongoing farm adjustment. Possible incremental adjustment strategies include expansive and accommodating responses, such as irrigators buying land and water, increasing their irrigated area, changing crop mix and adopting efficient infrastructure. Contractive strategies include selling land and water, and decreasing their irrigated area. Using historical surveys we provide a comparison of irrigators鈥 planned and actual strategies over the past fifteen years, thereby offering a strong foundation to support analysing future adaptation strategies. We explore influences associated with farm adjustment strategies, and in particular the role that climate change beliefs play. Farmers convinced that climate change is occurring are more likely to plan accommodating, but not expansive, strategies. The relationship between climate change belief and adopting various adaptive strategies was found to be often endogenous, especially for accommodating strategies. Such results suggest the need for irrigation farming policies to be targeted at improving irrigators鈥 adaptability to manage water variability, and its link with farm future viability.
[16] 徐中民,龙爱华.

中国社会化水资源稀缺评价

[J].地理学报,2004,59(6):982~988.

https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2004.06.022      URL      Magsci      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

水资源稀缺是我国21世纪可持续发展面临的最主要问题之一,水资源稀缺评价足水资源管理中最基础性的工作。在界定水资源管理阶段、引入社会适应性能力概念的基础上,将水资源稀缺评价问题拓展到了社会经济领域,强调社会资源在水资源稀缺评价中的作用。同时根据计算的社会化水资源稀缺评价指数,对2002年我国各省(市)水文水资源稀缺指数和社会化水资源稀缺指数进行了比较分析。结果表明北京、上海、浙江、广东和广西省由于相对高的社会适应性能力,其社会化水资源稀缺程度指数的相对排序得到了改善;河北、河南、贵州、云南省因相对低的社会适应性能力使其社会化水资源稀缺指数排序有所降低。同时探讨了社会适应性能力对水资源稀缺程度的影响,并指出运用社会资源来适应水资源的稀缺也是水资源可持续开发利用的一种途径。
[17] Motsholapheko M R, Kgathi D L, Vanderpost C.

Rural livelihoods and household adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta, Botswana.

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2011, 36(36): 984-995.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.08.004      URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

Adaptation to flooding is now widely adopted as an appropriate policy option since flood mitigation measures largely exceed the capability of most developing countries. In wetlands, such as the Okavango Delta, adaptation is more appropriate as these systems serve as natural flood control mechanisms. The Okavango Delta system is subject to annual variability in flooding with extreme floods resulting in adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. This study therefore seeks to improve the general understanding of rural household livelihood adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta. Specific objectives are: (1) to assess household access to forms of capital necessary for enhanced capacity to adapt, (2) to assess the impacts of extreme flooding on household livelihoods, and (3) to identify and assess household livelihood responses to extreme flooding. The study uses the sustainable livelihood and the socio-ecological frameworks to analyse the livelihood patterns and resilience to extreme flooding. Results from a survey of 623 households in five villages, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and review of literature, indicate that access to natural capital was generally high, but low for financial, physical, human and social capital. Households mainly relied on farm-based livelihood activities, some non-farm activities, limited rural trade and public transfers. In 2004 and 2009, extreme flooding resulted in livelihood disruptions in the study areas. The main impacts included crop damage, household displacement, destruction of household property, livestock drowning and mud-trapping, the destruction of public infrastructure and disruption of services. The main household coping strategies were labour switching to other livelihood activities, temporary relocation to less affected areas, use of canoes for early harvesting or evacuation and government assistance, particularly for the most vulnerable households. Household adaptive strategies included livelihood diversification, long-term mobility and training in non-agricultural skills. The study concludes that household capacity to adapt to extreme flooding in the study villages largely depends on access to natural capital. This is threatened by population growth, land use changes, policy shifts, upstream developments, global economic changes and flood variations due to climate variability and change.
[18] Nelson R, Kokic P, Elliston L, et al.

Structural Adjustment: a vulnerability index for Australian broadacre agriculture

[J]. Australian Commodities, 2005, 12(1):171-179.

URL      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

An indicator of the vulnerability of farm households to structural adjustment has been constructed using ABARE farm surveys data. Mapping the index has identified regions of Australia where farm households are likely to be most vulnerable to external in04uences that may force structural adjustment. The vulnerability index can assist in ensuring that government policies enhance the self reliant resilience of farm households in regions at risk.
[19] 赵雪雁.

生计资本对农牧民生活满意度的影响——以甘南高原为例

[J].地理研究,2011,30(4):687~698.

https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2011040011      URL      Magsci      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

地处青藏高原东缘的甘南高原是 典型的生态环境脆弱区,提高农牧民的生计资本成为该区消除贫困、保护环境、可持续利用自然资源的基础与关键。本文建立了生计资本评估指标,结合实地调查资 料评估了甘南高原纯牧区、半农半牧区和农区农户的生计资本状况,分析了不同区域农户面临的生活压力及需要的帮助,并采用logistic回归模型分析了农 户生计资本对其生活满意度的影响,提出了提高农户生计资本的策略。研究表明:(1)农户生计资本存在空间异质性,纯牧区农户的生计资本总指数最高、农区次 之、半农半牧区最低;(2)面临的稀缺资本不同,农区农户缺乏自然资本和物质资本,半农半牧区农户缺乏物质资本,纯牧区农户缺乏金融资本;(3)农户的生 活满意度不高,面临一系列生活压力,但农户自身对生计风险的响应相对被动、消极,更多依赖国家政策;(4)目前对农户生活满意度影响最大的是物质资本,对 提高农户生活满意度具有重要贡献的是人力资本与社会资本。
[20] 阎建忠,吴莹莹,张镱锂,.

青藏高原东部样带农牧民生计的多样化

[J].地理学报,2009,64(2):221~233.

https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2009.02.009      URL      Magsci      [本文引用: 1]      摘要

随着草地退化和药材资源减少,青藏高原东部农牧民的生计受到了严重影响。农牧民如何利用生计资产实现生计多样化是该区域可持续发展面临的关键问题。实地调查采用PRA法,结合调查结果调整了生计资产评估指标,从样带尺度定量分析了高原东部高山峡谷区、山原区和高原区农牧民的生计资产现状、生计多样化特点和今后的生计策略。结果表明:①生计多样化是农牧民普遍采用的生计策略。高山峡谷区农牧民生计多样化水平较高,从事二三产业较多,普遍寻求发展型生计。而随着海拔升高,农牧民的生计多样化水平降低,从事的生计活动类型减少,发展型生计的比例也降低;②海拔较低的高山峡谷区和山原区,生计资产总值高,而海拔越高的高原区,生计资产总值较低,主要反映在人力资产和自然资产上;③居民所拥有的生计资产与生计多样化水平高度正相关;④农牧民近期仍基于生计资产改善生计策略;⑤高山峡谷区和山原区农牧民寻求发展型生计为高原区牧民提供了很好的借鉴。建议政府围绕生计多样化的制约因素进行投入,以提高牧民的能力,协助高原区牧民建立发展型生计。

/