Driving Forces of Jinta Oasis Changes Based on Participatory Rural Appraisal and Principal Component Analysis
Xie Yuchu,, Zhang Ying, Qian Dawen, Gong Jie,, Xie Yaowen, Chang Genying
Abstract

As a unique geographical landscape of arid area, oasis was the main space of human activity in arid area, and its change was the most direct reflection of environmental change. Recently, spatiotemporal change of oasis and its driving forces was one of the hot issues of oasis study. Jinta oasis, a typical artificial and agricultural oasis in the lower reaches of Beida River Basin in arid China, had experienced drastic change in the past 50 years, was selected as a case to study the spatiotemporal change and its driving forces. Based on Keyhole satellite photograph, KATE-200, Landsat MSS, TM and ETM images in 1963-2010, as well as field interviews and governmental socioeconomic statistics data, this study investigated and discussed the driving forces of Jinta oasis change during 1963-2010 by combining with participatory rural appraisal and principal component analysis. The results showed that oasis area and scale expanded gradually, and the area achieved its maximum with 539.47 km2 in 2010. Oasis changes had been resulted from the interaction of natural environmental changes and human activities. Human driving factors include population, policy, economic development, the progress of agricultural science and technology, environmental awareness, while the natural environment change was been represented by climatic factors (such as rainfall, air temperature) and runoff. In our study, the first and second main components of driving forces were population growth, water resources development and utilization, technical renovation, economic development and policy, the thirds was annual temperature, suggesting that human driving force played a dominant role. In addition, the main human driving forces behind oasis changes were varied in different historical periods. In 1963-1980, the dominant driving force was population growth and policy, whereas the dominant driving forces in 1980-1990 were the changes in agricultural production ways (such as household contract responsibility system) and population growth. In the period of 1990-2000, all sorts of driving forces interacted and associated mutually. Since 2002, economic benefit and water utilization were the dominant factors.

Keyword: oasis change; participatory rural appraisal; principal component analysis; driving mechanism; Jinta Oasis;

1 研究区概况

2 研究方法与数据
2.1 数据来源与处理

2.2 绿洲变化过程分析

$ΔU$ = $U b - U a$ （1）

$x ̅ = ( U b U a T - 1 ) × 100 %$ （2）

2.3 绿洲变化驱动力分析

2.3.1 参与式调查评估法

2.3.2 主成分分析法

$F = a 1 X 1 + a 2 X 2 + ... + a p X p$ （3）

3 结果与分析
3.1 金塔绿洲变化过程分析

 Figure Option 图1 1963~2010年金塔绿洲面积变化量及净变化速度(注：图1b中字母 ABCDEFGHMNOP 代表不同的研究时段,即：A:1963~1968年,B:1968~1973年,C:1973~1977年,D:1977~1981年,E:1981~1986年,F:1986~1990年,G:1990~1993年,H:1993~1996年,M:1996~1999年,N:1999~2002年,O:2002~2006年,P:2006~2010年。) Fig.1 The area and area change rate of Jinta Oasis in 1963-2010

3.2 金塔绿洲变化驱动力分析

3.2.1 气候因素

 Figure Option 图2 1963~2010 年间金塔绿洲年均气温和降水变化情况 Fig.2 The mean annual temperature and precipitation in Jinta Oasis in 1963-2010

3.2.2 人口因素

 Figure Option 图3 1963~2010年金塔绿洲人口变化 Fig.3 Change of population in Jinta Oasis in 1963-2010

3.2.3 水资源开发利用与科技进步

 Figure Option 图4 1963~2010年金塔绿洲农机总动力和化肥施用量变化情况 Fig.4 Changes of chemical fertilizer consumptions and agricultural mechanization in Jinta Oasis

3.2.4 社会经济发展

3.2.5 政策因素

 Figure Option 图5 1963~2010年间影响金塔绿洲变化的主要社会政策 Fig.5 China′s major policy forces for or against Jinta Oasis change

20世纪60年代中后期,在受自然灾害影响后,调整了生产过程的管理与劳作机制,并开展农业学大寨等运动,以及通过平整条田、修渠筑堤、推广先进农业生产技术,促使耕地面积得到了一定的增加,农业产值明显提高。至20世纪70 年代中期,随着河西走廊成为国家商品粮生产基地,金塔绿洲作为河西走廊粮棉重要产区,其耕地面积快速增长,绿洲规模逐渐扩大。1979 年国家开始实施“三北防护林政策”以及鸳鸯池水库和解放村水库等水利工程的巩固和建设,逐渐形成了“田--路-渠”相配套的农业灌溉体系和生态防护林体系,为金塔绿洲良好发展提供了有利条件。20世纪80年代先后实行的家庭联产责任制、扶贫政策和“两西”移民政策,不仅极大地调动了农民生产的积极性,而且引起了开荒热潮,如在金塔绿洲东部边缘建成了羊井子湾移民乡。期间金塔绿洲面积迅速扩张,并达到了一个小高峰。进入 20 世纪 90 年代,大规模移民迁入逐渐减缓,受计划生育政策和农村劳动力向城市转移的影响,人口数量变化趋向平稳。同时,中游嘉峪关市和酒泉市的建设需水量不断增加,致使下游来水量下降,加上当时风沙灾害严重且频发,导致下游金塔绿洲部分耕地因缺水而撂荒,绿洲呈现退缩现象。20世纪90年代后期,电机井技术的推广与利用使得农业灌溉用水不再单纯依赖于河水,且金塔绿洲农业逐渐形成规模化发展（即蔬菜瓜果制种和棉花产业的兴起）,以及农业税免除、良地补贴、农机补贴等三农政策大大调动了农民的种地积极性,间接促进了绿洲面积的增长。为了保护生态环境,避免绿洲的过度开垦。2008年金塔绿洲开始实行“三禁”政策,即禁止移民、禁止打井、禁止开荒,有利于现有绿洲的维持和可持续性。

4 讨论

5 结论

1963~2010年间,金塔绿洲面积波动变化,但总体呈现增长的趋势,绿洲规模不断扩大,绿洲扩张速度远大于退缩速度。影响绿洲变化的驱动力包括自然因素和人文因素。通过实地调查访谈和筛选研究区16个驱动因子并进行主成分分析得出,在短时期内自然因素相对稳定,气候变化是绿洲变化的背景因素;人文因素的作用相对明显,也是影响金塔绿洲变化的主要成分因子,包括有人口增长（含移民）、水资源开发利用程度、科学技术、社会经济及其市场因素、政策等。但在不同历史社会背景下,绿洲变化主导因素不同。在整个研究期间,水资源开发与利用是金塔绿洲变化的首要条件,人口增长和追求经济利益是直接动因,并与科技进步、经济发展以及政策相互交织影响着绿洲变化。参与式调查与计量统计分析方法相辅相成,能更清晰地解释绿洲变化的驱动机制。由于绿洲本身对各驱动因子存在一定的自适应和反馈作用以及尺度效应,因此,配合实地调查访谈并引入因果检验的计量统计方法还有待进一步研究。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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Abstract

Land-use/cover change of oases in the arid region of Xinjiang plays a significant role in the stability and economic development of the region. The oasis landscape change and its driving forces for a selected research area (150 Regiment in Shihezi District, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region) from 1982 to 1995 were studied using landscape ecological analysis methods. Land-use maps at the scale 1:25,000 of the study area were used for landscape dynamics analysis. Eight types of land-use (patch type) were identified: cropland, vegetable land, orchard, forested land, residential land, abandoned cultivated land, wasted grassland, and sand land. The following results were obtained: (1) landscape matrix was changed from cropland (1982) to wasted grassland (1995); (2) areas of wasted grassland, forested land, and residential land had been increased while other types decreased, among which sand land, cultivated land, and abandoned cultivated land declined dramatically; (3) transition probabilities of vegetable land, abandoned cultivated land, orchard, and sand land patches were over 40%, while wasted grassland and cropland were about 20%. All of above changes are different in different sub-regions of the research area. And the changes have had positive impacts on water resource utilization, oasis microclimate, and the internal environment of the oasis because of the increase of waste grassland and decrease of sand land. The stability of the oasis environment was increased to a great extent due to these positive influences of landscape change.

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Based on integration of Keyhole satellite photographs, KATE-200 photographs, Landsat MSS, TM and ETM+ images, we evaluated and analyzed the status, trend and spatial pattern change of Jinta oasis and the characteristics of landscape pattern change by a set of mathematical models and combined this information with landscape metrics and community surveys. During the period of 1963a-2010a, Jinta oasis expanded gradually with an area increase of 219.15 km, and the conversion between oasis and desert was frequent with a state of 鈥渋mbalance-balance-extreme imbalance conditions鈥. Moreover, most of the changes took place in the ecotone between oasis and desert and the interior of oasis due to the reclamation of abandoned land, such as Yangjingziwan and Xiba townships. Furthermore, the area, size and spatial distribution of oasis were influenced by human activities and resulted in fundamental changes of oasis landscape pattern. The fractal characteristics, dispersion degree and fragmentation of Jinta oasis decreased and the oasis landscape tended to be simple and uniform. Oasis change trajectories and its landscape pattern were mainly influenced by water resource utilization, policies (especially land policies), demographic factors, technological advancements, as well as regional economic development. We found that time series analysis of multi-source remote sensing images and the application of an oasis change model provided a useful approach to monitor oasis change over a long-term period in arid area. It is recommended that the government and farmers should pay more attention to the fragility of the natural system and the government should enhance the leading role of environmental considerations in the development process of oasis change, particularly with respect to the utilization of the limited water and land resources in arid China.      [本文引用:7] [5] 陈隆亨. 荒漠绿洲的形成条件和过程[J].干旱区资源与环境,1995,9(3):49-57. 绿洲分为天然绿洲和人工绿洲两 大类型；绿洲的形成条件以水为基本、地形为制约、土壤为载体、植被为体现；天然绿洲的形成过程有沼泽化过程和草甸化过程，人工绿洲的形成过程有建立人工植 被过程，培养优质高效农业过程及发展工业和城镇建设过程；绿洲的建设措施有：（１）巩固现有绿洲，保护山区水资源，内陆河流域上、中、下游合理分配用水， 防治土壤次生盐渍化，防止土地风蚀沙化，（２）扩大和发展绿洲，根据现有水资源潜力扩大绿洲面积，外调水源发展新绿洲，加强绿洲工业和城镇建设。 [本文引用:1] [Chen Longheng.Formation conditions and processes of desert oases. 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Abstract

Land change is often studied with Markov models to develop a probability transition matrix. The existing methods dependent on such matrixes cannot effectively characterize some important aspects associated with land change such as status, direction, trend and regional variations. This study presents mathematical models to quantify these elements, defining unbalanced, quasi-balanced and balanced status, one- and two-way transitions and the rising or falling trends. Using these models and remote-sensing imageries, the landscape was studied for a case area, the oasis of Sangong River in Xinjiang, Northwest China where typical arid conditions prevail. Land expansion and contraction among various land types and for the entire oasis were analyzed for the periods of 1978–1987, 1978–1998 and 1987–1998. The changes were closely related to a strong economic growth after the land-reform campaign and adoption of the market economy in China in the 1980s to early 1990s, a process not strictly Markovian that requires stationarity and randomness. Information on land-change status and trend is important for a better understanding of the underlying driving processes but also for land-use planning and decision-making.

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The major patterns of land use change were from grassland (major source), woodland, unused land and wetland to cropland, from a great lot of cropland to built-up land, as well as from grassland (occupying 30 %), woodland and wetland to unused land. Land use change underwent a process of obvious change-slow change-obvious change-tremendous change in the period of 1973-2005. The influence of natural factors including elevation, slope, soil types, distance from river course and climate change on land use and land cover change was limited. Population growth, economic development and industry policy were the dominant driving force for land use and land cover change in the mainstream of the Tarim River. The sustainable use of land resources is significant to keep economic development and environmental protection in arid inland river basin.      [本文引用:2] [12] 常跟应,李国敬,颉耀文,等.近60年来民乐县农业绿洲扩张的人文驱动机制[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版, 2013,49(2):221-225. 锛 Abstract: Agricultural oasis in Minle County expanded continuously in the past 60 years, but with fluctuations. Based on field interviews, statistical data, and GIS data, this paper analyzed driving human forces of agricultural oasis expansion in Minle County. It is argued that human factors including population growth, change in agricultural operation system and policies related, and economic benefits played a decisive role in oasis expansion. The dominant driving human factors varied according to socio-economic contexts. During 1949 and 1980, the dominant driving force was population growth, whereas the dominant driving forces during 1981 and 2003 were change in agricultural operation system and population growth. Since 2004, the dominant force was economic benefit. [本文引用:5] [Chang Genying, Li Guojing, Xie Yaowen, et al.Human driving forces behind agricultural oasis expansion in Minle County, Gansu Province in the past 60 years. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 2013, 49(2):221-225.] [13] 田文婷,颉耀文,陈云海.甘肃省高台县绿洲变化的人文驱动力[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2014,50(2): 180-185. 利用1980-2009年的9 期KATE-200,Landsat-5TM影像数据,提取绿洲空间数据,分析了绿洲面积变化趋势,利用统计分析法确定绿洲变化的主要人文驱动力,结合统 计资料、实地访谈调查结果分析绿洲变化驱动力.结果表明:近30年高台县绿洲总体处于扩张趋势,其主要原因是移民导致的人口增加、科技进步以及社会经济发 展,同时政策因素也对绿洲变化有指引性作用,但是在不同时期绿洲扩张的主要驱动力不同.      [本文引用:8] [Tian Wenting, Xie Yaowen, Chen Yunhai.Human driving forces behind oasis changes in Gaotai County, Gansu Province. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 2014,50(2): 180-185.] [14] Wang Yang, Chen Yaning, Ding Jianli, et al. Land-use conversion and its attribution in the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin, China[J]. Quaternary International,2015, 380-381: 216-223. [本文引用:1] [15] 康相武,潘伯荣,周华荣.干旱区廊道景观及其研究之管见[J].干旱区研究,2000,17(3):64-70. 本文阐述了国内外关于廊道景观的研究进展和研究方法,以及干旱区廊道景观在维持生态安全、改善区域生态环境、发展地区经济方面所具有的重要作用,提出了在利用景观生态学方法研究干旱区生态环境问题中,干旱区廊道景观的研究方向. [本文引用:1] [Kang Xiangwu, Pan Borong, Zhou Huarong.Some viewpoints on corridor landscape in arid zone and research on it.Arid Zone Research,2000,17(3):64-70.] [16] 巩杰,谢余初,高彦净,等.1963-2009年金塔绿洲变化对绿洲景观格局的影响[J].生态学报,2015,33(3):603-612. 内陆河流域绿洲与荒漠景观之间的相互作用与影响机制是干旱区景观 地理学的重要内容之一.绿洲时空变化及其对区域景观格局影响的研究,对流域绿洲管理和环境保护具有重要的指导意义和科学价值.以中国西北干旱区内陆河流域 水土资源开发的典型代表区域——金塔绿洲为例,基于5期不同的卫星遥感数据,利用数理统计模型及景观指数等方法开展绿洲变化过程、趋势、空间分布格局和景 观结构特征变化研究.结果表明:(1) 1963-2009年间金塔绿洲主要以扩张为主,绿洲面积增加了167.37 km2,绿洲与荒漠间相互转化剧烈,呈现出非平衡-平衡-极端不平衡的趋势状态.绿洲变化主要体现在西坝乡、羊井子湾乡的绿洲外延扩张和在三合乡-中东- 大庄子乡、金塔镇-中东镇、古城乡等地的绿洲内部填充合并.(2)近46a来金塔绿洲景观的分形特征、离散程度和破碎化程度趋于减小,各景观斑块则趋于简 单和均匀化.(3)绿洲变化在一定程度上影响着绿洲景观格局,导致景观结构趋于均匀化和密集化,绿洲斑块镶嵌体表现出散布-扩张-破碎-融合扩展的变化过 程.      [本文引用:3] [Gong Jie, Xie Yuchu, Gao Yanjing, et al.Spatio-temporal change and its effects on landscape pattern of Jinta Oasis in Arid China from 1963 to 2009[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2015,35(3):603-612.] [17] 赵杰,赵士洞.利用PRA方法研究小尺度区域土地利用变化——以科尔沁沙地尧勒甸子村为例[J].地域研究与开发, 2004,23(1):73-76. 土地利用变化研究可涉及多个时 空尺度,目前正由全球性研究不断转向针对性的区域性研究。典型区域的小尺度研究是其研究的一个重要方面。参与性农村评估(PRA)是一种通过与研究地区居 民进行非正式访谈来对地方的实际情况有所了解的方法。文章借助PRA结合实地测量,以科尔沁沙地东南部尧勒甸子村为例对小尺度区域的土地利用变化进行初步 研究。绘制一系列尧勒甸子村建国以来各个时代的土地利用图,重建和恢复了其50年来的土地利用过程,并运用GIS对其土地利用变化进行了研究。      [本文引用:1] [Zhao Jie, Zhao Shidong.Apply the participatory rural appraisal method to the research of land use change in local scale: A case study of village Yaoledianzi of Korqin sands.Areal Research and Development, 2004,23(1):73-76.] [18] 朱慧,张新焕,焦广辉,等.基于PRA的新疆三工河流域农户土地利用差异研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012, 26(6):90-95. 采用参与式调查方法（PRA），对新疆三工河流域农户进行实地调查，研究三工河流域农户土地利用现状，对比分析不同条件下农户土地利用差异的形成原因。结果表明：1）低收入农户种植多样性相对较小，中等收入和高收入农户种植多样性较大。非农收入比例越小的农户多选择多元化种植，比例越大越趋向于单一化种植。2）地块规模越大越趋向于单一化种植，地块规模越小越趋向于多元化种植。土地综合质量较差时，农户多选择种植抗旱抗碱的作物；土地综合质量较好时，农户多选择高附加值的经济作物。3）土地体制不同，导致农户土地经营自主权和选择作物种类不同。4）由于种植习惯、土质以及水资源的差别，上中下游种植作物不尽相同，亩均耗水费也有差异。最后讨论了非农收入比例出现理论值之外值的情况以及兵地不同体制对农户十地利用荠异的影响，以期更进一步了解三工河流域的农户土地利用差异及其产生原因。 [本文引用:1] [Zhu Hui, Zhang Xinhuan, Jiao Guanghui, et al.Research on farm household’s choice of land use type over the Sangong River Basin in Xinjiang based on PRA.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012, 26(6):90-95.] [19] 吴美琼,陈秀贵.基于主成分分析法的钦州市耕地面积变化及其驱动力分析[J].地理科学,2014,33(1): 54-59. 以钦州市为例,采用主成分分析 方法,从经济、人口、农业和土地4个方面选取了13个因子,分析其在2001~2010年对耕地面积变化的影响,揭示耕地面积变化的作用机制,从而为制定 合理的耕地保护政策提供依据。研究结果表明:①钦州市耕地面积总体呈逐年下降趋势,年平均减少约460 hm2。②钦州市耕地面积变化的主要因子是经济社会发展、人口增加和农业生产发展,这3者构成了耕地面积变化主要驱动力。③可以从减少建设占用、加强土地 开发利用、加强农业结构调整的引导和管理等3个方面遏制钦州市耕地面积减少的势头。 [本文引用:1] [Wu Meiqiong, Chen Xiugui.Changes in arable land area in Qinzhou city and its driving force based on the principle component analysis.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,33(1):54-59.] [20] Hersperger A M, Gennaio M, Verburg P H, et al.Linking land change with driving forces and actors: four conceptual models[J].Ecology and Society, 2010,15(4):1-17. Nuclear quantum mechanical tunnelling is important in enzyme-catalysed H-transfer reactions. This viewpoint has arisen after a number of experimental studies have described enzymatic reactions with kinetic isotope effects that are significantly larger than the semiclassical limit. Other experimental evidence for tunnelling, and the potential role of promoting vibrations that transiently compress the reaction barrier, is more indirect, being derived from the interpretation of e.g. mutational analyses of enzyme systems and temperature perturbation studies of reaction rates/kinetic isotope effects. Computational simulations have, in some cases, determined exalted kinetic isotope effects and tunnelling contributions, and identified putative promoting vibrations. In this review, we present the available evidence – both experimental and computational – for environmentally-coupled Htunnelling in several enzyme systems, namely aromatic amine dehydrogenase and members of the Old Yellow Enzyme family. We then consider the relative importance of tunnelling contributions to these reactions. We find that the tunnelling contribution to these reactions confers a rate enhancement of 651000-fold. Without tunnelling, a 1000-fold reduction in activity would seriously impair cellular metabolism. We therefore infer that tunnelling is crucial to host organism viability thereby emphasising the general importance of tunnelling in biology.      [本文引用:2] [21] Lambin E F, Turner B L, Geist H J, et al.The causes of land-use and land- cover change: Moving beyond the myths[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2001,11(4):261-269. [本文引用:0] [22] Bürgi M, Hersperger A M, Schneeberger N.Driving forces of landscape change: Current and new directions[J].Landscape Ecology, 2004,19(8):857-868. The concept of driving forces is gaining increasing attention in landscape-change research. We summarize the state of the art of this field and present new conceptual and methodological directions for the study of driving forces of landscape changes. These new directions address four major challenges faced by landscape-change studies, i.e., studying processes and not merely spatial patterns, extrapolating results in space and time, linking data of different qualities, and considering culture as a driver of landscape change. The proposed research directions include: studying landscape change across borders and transects, focusing on persistence as well as change, investigating rates of change, considering attractors of landscape change, targeting correlation and causality, and searching for precursors of landscape change. Based on established knowledge and the new approaches we outline a standard procedure to study driving forces of landscape change. We anticipate that our analytical and systematic approach increases the relevance of studies of landscape change for science as well as for the solution of real world problems.      [本文引用:1]
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