苏飞
, 应蓉蓉
Su Fei, Ying Rongrong
中图分类号: K903
文献标识码: A
文章编号: 1000-0690（2016）07-1073-08
收稿日期: 2016-01-22
修回日期: 2016-03-21
网络出版日期: 2016-07-20
版权声明: 2016 《地理科学》编辑部 本文是开放获取期刊文献，在以下情况下可以自由使用：学术研究、学术交流、科研教学等，但不允许用于商业目的.
基金资助:
作者简介:
作者简介：苏飞（1982-）,男,安徽颍上人,博士,副教授,主要从事城市与区域发展研究。E-mail:suf910@163.com
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摘要
以Web of science核心数据库中1991~2015年间收录主题为“livelihood vulnerability”的文献为基础,应用可视化分析软件CiteSpace Ⅲ,采取关键词共现分析、文献共被引分析、突现词分析等方法对生计脆弱性研究现状进行可视化分析。研究发现：① 生计脆弱性研究文献呈现逐年上升趋势,主要分布在生态、环境和管理等学科领域;美、英、澳、加、德5国及东英格兰大学、哥本哈根大学、麦吉尔大学、利兹大学、萨塞克斯大学等研究机构具有较强的研究实力。② Ellis F、Smit B、Adger W N、Kelly P M、Davies S和Turner B L等学者及其代表作是生计脆弱性研究的知识基础。③ 饥荒、社会生态系统、生计策略、贫困、减贫等是生计脆弱性的研究热点与前沿领域。
关键词：
Abstract
Livelihood vulnerability has become a hotspot research of global environment change and it is also one of the important research paradigms of sustainability science. Firstly, according to the web of science database in 1991-2015 which included the literature of livelihood vulnerability, the article analyzed the livelihood vulnerability’s distribution status, in terms of time, area, organization etc,by using statistics and visualization. The results show that the quantity of the international livelihood vulnerability research documents are on arising trend, mostly specializing in the subject of ecology, environment, resources and management or other related topics. Five countries (i.e. the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, and Germany) and research institutions of University of East Anglia, University of Copenhagen, McGill University, University of Leeds, and University of Sussex show great research strengths of livelihood vulnerability. Secondly, applying the information visualization software CiteSpace Ⅲ, this article drew the document co-citation network of livelihood vulnerability, and discussed the knowledge base and core authors. Scholars like Ellis F, Smit B, Adger W N, Kelly P M, Davies Sand Turner B L etc. and their representative works laid a solid foundation in the establishment of the theoretical elementary knowledge and other related researches. Finally, based on the keywords and burst phrases analysis of co-word and word frequency, this article drew the evolution network of livelihood vulnerability research hotspot, and explored the frontier proposition research of famine, political economics, social-ecological system, livelihood strategies, poverty reduction and so on. Because of researcher's different situation and various research motives, the research hotspots of livelihood vulnerability are mainly concentrated in the following four categories:1) Residents in ecologically fragile areas are currently being much more dependent on the natural environment and natural resources than before, climate change and agriculture research has therefore become the hotspot in livelihood vulnerability research. 2) In order to analyze food security vulnerability of different groups and help them improve their ability to deal with those problems, WFP launched the vulnerability analysis and mapping project. The way to improve adaptability, resilience and level of scientific management is always the main target in livelihood vulnerability research. 3) Poverty and risk have being two of the core issues in research course, under developed areas are often poor in resource of health care, and they also exists instability in social and political environment, leading to birth risks faced by the local population greatly increased. 4) Continuous conflict from dry weather and regional impact of fragile conditions both pose a great challenge to the well-being of local dwellings. And Africa continues to be the key areas of livelihood vulnerability research.
Keywords：
脆弱性概念起源于自然灾害研究[1]。由于学科背景及研究对象的差异,人们对脆弱性内涵的界定亦不相同[2~6]。随着全球环境变化和人类活动影响加剧,生计脆弱性研究日益受到重视,其研究不断扩展到自然、经济、社会等领域,研究内容丰富,研究成果不断涌现。国外于20世纪90年代初开始关注生计脆弱性研究。Dilley等[7]以家庭为研究单位,开展对家庭的饥荒与食物安全脆弱性研究。Shah等[8]提出生计脆弱性指数（LVI）测度发展中国家农业和自然资源依赖型地区的脆弱性程度。Bell等[9]以太平洋地区的农村家庭为对象,阐述了多元化的渔业供应量发展能够更有弹性地帮助太平洋地区的农村家庭面对自然灾害、社会和政治不稳定,以及气候变化的不确定性。国内有关生计脆弱性的研究起始于20世纪90年代,开始主要关注生态环境脆弱性。罗承平等[10]首先提出环境敏感和退化趋势是脆弱生态环境单元的特征,并定性分析了中国北方农牧交错地带的环境脆弱性。阎建忠等[11]基于可持续生计分析框架,对青藏高原东部样带农牧民生计脆弱性进行定量评估,并提出了针对性的对策建议。刘进等[12]基于GIS和ANN对农户生计脆弱性进行空间模拟分析。总体而言,目前生计脆弱性研究取得较丰富的研究成果,但对该研究领域进行系统归纳和总结较少,且以传统的统计学和描述分析为主,对生计脆弱性领域的属性和特征研究不足,缺乏对该领域知识演化历程与趋势的可视化分析。因此,本文利用计量分析以及可视化分析软件CiteSpace Ⅲ,厘清生计脆弱性研究的知识基础、发展脉络与合作网络,探究生计脆弱性研究的前沿热点与发展趋势,以期为促进生计脆弱性研究的长足发展并在决策者制定相关政策提供科学参考。
科学知识图谱是以科学知识为计量研究对象,采用引文分析和信息可视化技术,将科学发展规律绘制成二维、三维知识图谱、知识地图等图形[13]。美国德雷塞尔大学（Drexel University）陈超美教授开发了基于 Java 的信息可视化分析软件 CiteSpace。其基本原理是分析信息知识单位（科学文献、科学家、关键词等）的相似性及测度[13]。近年来,以CiteSpace为分析工具,依托文献数据库如中文CSSCI和Web of science（WOS）,科学知识图谱已经被广泛应用于信息科学、安全科学、生态安全、社区规划、旅游研究等诸多领域。
鉴于 WOS 收录期刊具有很高的学术质量和国际通行性,以 WOS核心库为数据源,文献分布时间为1991~2015年,文献语言为英语,以“主题=（Livelihood*）AND主题=（Vulnerability）”为条件,检索国际上生计脆弱性研究的相关文献,检索时间为2016 年 1月 3日。文献信息包括作者、标题、来源出版物、摘要和引用的参考文献。为了保证分析的客观性和准确性,进一步通过文献梳理及数据标准化处理,剔除与研究主题不相关的文献,合并相似字段,最终获得1 031篇生计脆弱性研究文献记录样本。利用Web of science数据库中自带的“创建引文报告”功能得到年度分布情况（图1）。
图1 生计脆弱性研究文献出版数量的时间分布
Fig.1 Distribution of livelihood vulnerability research literature quantity
由图1可知,国际生计脆弱性研究的相关文献不断增长（2015年仅有部分数据）,表明对生计脆弱性研究的重视程度不断上升。从研究的学科分布来看,生计脆弱性研究是多学科共同关注的研究领域,交叉学科相融合的综合集成研究是目前生计脆弱性研究的主流,也是该研究领域进一步深入发展的需要。目前生计脆弱性研究主要集中在环境科学与生态（40.09%）和地理学（5.49%）领域。公共管理（Public administration,5.0%）、规划开发（Planning & development,4.89%）等管理领域也有相关研究成果,但所占比例较小。
在CiteSpace III中,利用Kleinberg的突变检测法来确定前沿中的概念,其基本原理是统计相关领域论文的标题、摘要、关键词和文献记录的标识符中词汇频率,根据这些词的词频增长率来确定哪些是研究前沿的热点词汇[13]。从生计脆弱性研究的突现词（图2）中可以看出饥荒（Famine）一词是持续时间最长的热点词汇,这表明饥荒问题一直是学者们关注的重点。
图2 生计脆弱性研究中的突现词
Fig.2 Burst words appeared in livelihood vulnerability research
1994~1999年出现的突现词分别是饥荒（Famine）和政治经济学（Political economy）。Bohle等[14]对尼泊尔浅山周边食物缺乏的社区进行入户调查,研究发现除了阶级、种族,家庭结构是重要的影响因素,在山区的广大人群面临营养不良的严重威胁,随着农村人口比例越来越大,生存将会成为永久性危机。Misselhorn[15]对撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲半干旱地区农牧民的贫困问题进行分析,研究发现越来越多的农牧民受到干旱导致的粮食缺乏的影响,除了降雨、资产和劳动力的制约、政策执行力度不足,以及因贫困驱动而不能采取风险规避的生产体系都是重要的影响因素。Muldavin[16]以河南省为研究案例区,对中国改革以后的环境政策和管理实践进行评估,强调政治经济变化、环境政策和管理之间的关系。
2000~2001年出现的突现词分别是减少贫困（Poverty reduction）、生计策略（Livelihood strategy）、贫穷（Poverty）、艾滋病/援助（HIV/Aid）。Eakin[17]运用多尺度、多应激评估模型,阐述了如何面对全球化、自由市场和气候风险的同时构建小农户的生计策略。Masanjala[18]根据可持续生计框架回顾了非洲贫困与艾滋病之间的关系。Bryceson[19]对马拉维农村居民的艾滋病感染率与该国2001~2002年的饥荒影响进行分析,在相关管理性理念的基础上对居民的生存风险进行评估。
2003~2007年出现的突现词分别是南部非洲（Southern Africa）、概念框架（Conceptual framework）、发展政策（Development policy）。Waal等[20]研究南部非洲的饥荒,发现这不同于传统粮食短缺问题,他将粮食危机归因于该地区艾滋病的流行,艾滋病创造了非常脆弱的家庭模式。由于术语“vulnerability”用在许多不同领域,Füssel[21]提出一个普遍适用的概念框架,可以用来解决全球气候变化的风险研究,气候变化的影响和适应评估。Allison等[22]将可持续生计方法（SLA）结合一套框架原则,以提供对政策的制定和发展实践的指导。
2014年出现的突现词是社会生态系统（Social ecological system）。Cullen-Unsworth等[23]从海草角度研究社会生态系统,海草草地被用于粮食创收和支持渔业养殖对当地居民的生产生活带来巨大好处。Orchard等[24]研究越南沿海地区人类活动导致红树林快速退化,进而造成生态系统服务功能损失。
关键词是作者对文献的高度概况也是其研究核心思想的浓缩和提炼,其圆圈的大小表示出现的频率,高频率出现的关键词反映该领域的研究热点。某个词汇与其他词汇的连线越多,则表示这个词汇代表的生计现象越复杂,越被不同研究方向的学者所共同关注,越具有学科交叉性。对生计脆弱性的研究文献进行关键词分析（图3）,在图谱中Vulnerability一词处于中心位置,其频次（Frequency）和中心性（Centrality）均处于前列,其它出现频次和中心性较高的词汇涵盖了生计脆弱性研究的主题、内容、方法等。
由于本研究是以“Vulnerability”和“Livelihood”为主题来进行检索,两者出现的频次分别为500次和216次。除了“Vulnerability”和“Livelihood”这两个词以外,对出现80次以上的关键词进行分类,可以分为以下4类：
1） 生态环境类。这一类主要包括气候变化（Climate change,326次）、农业（Agriculture,81次）。因为全球变暖带来干旱、缺水、海平面上升、洪水泛滥、热浪及气温剧变,这些都会使世界各地的粮食生产受到破坏。亚洲大部分地区及美国的谷物带地区,将会变得干旱。国际稻米研究所的研究显示,若晚间最低气温每上升1℃（1.8℉）,稻米收成便会减少10%。生态脆弱地区的居民过于依赖自然环境和自然资源,所以气候变化和农业研究是生计脆弱性研究的重点之一。
2） 应对能力类。主要包括适应（Adaptation,259次）、恢复力（Resilience,122次）、管理（Management,115次）、适应能力（Adaptive capacity,95次）。为分析不同人群粮食安全脆弱性和帮助他们提高应对的能力,世界粮食计划署（WFP）启动了脆弱性分析与制图项目。White等[25]综合健康、生活资源、妇女与儿童的食物特殊需求等指标,旨在迅速预警和确定需要特殊帮助的人群。准确的脆弱性分析和科学的管理体系,可以帮助目标人群提高适应能力和恢复力。
3） 生计风险类。主要包括贫穷（Poverty,116次）、风险（Risk,82次）。世界银行在《2000/2001年世界发展报告》中从风险与脆弱性的角度来解读贫困,即风险—脆弱性—贫困是认识贫困现象的另一个重要视角。贫穷和风险一直是生计脆弱性研究的核心问题之一。发展落后的贫困地区往往医疗卫生资源缺乏、社会政治不稳定、经济发展落后,当地居民面临的生计风险大大增强。
4） 重点地区类。非洲（Africa,90次）。根据联合国2009年的人类发展报告,人类发展指数排名最低的24个国家中,其中有22个都是非洲国家（159~182位）。非洲成为世界上经济发展水平最低的一个洲,全非洲1 a的贸易总额只占全世界的1/100。干旱的气候和持续不断的冲突以及这种脆弱的状况与干旱、动物疾病、冲突和居民流离失所的区域性影响交织在一起,对非洲地区居民的生计造成了严重的挑战。所以非洲地区仍然会是生计脆弱性研究的重点地区。
由共被引文献共现图谱（图4）可知,重要文献主要集中出现在1999~2012年,这是一段生计脆弱性研究的黄金时期,其中共被引频率最高的文献是Adger的“脆弱性”（Vulnerability）,他系统梳理了脆弱性的研究历程以及面临的挑战[1]。而网络中心性最高的是2000年Ellis的“Rural livelihoods and diversity in developing countries”,Ellis以他多年从事农村扶贫与开发研究的经验提出生计多样性分析框架,在发展中国家耕种已经越来越无法提供足够的生存手段,农村家庭通过养殖、农村贸易、迁移到遥远城市,甚至国外等方式谋生,并提出了推进农村生计多样化的对策与建议[26]。Smit[27]的“Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability”和Adger[28]的“Adaptation to climate change in the developing world”以及Kelly[29]的“Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation”是承前启后的关键性文献,为生计脆弱性研究知识网络发展做出了突出贡献。Smit在文中回顾了在适应能力和脆弱性的背景下,人类社会面对全球变化,尤其是适应气候变化的观念演进。Adger探讨了气候变化背景下风险和脆弱性的性质,并重新审视发展中国家适应以及未来国际行动适应协调的证据。Kelly讨论了气候变化脆弱性的评估方法,并试图澄清脆弱性和适应之间的概念关系。1996年Davies[30]的“Adaptable livelihoods: Coping with food insecurity in the Malian Sahel”是最早的生计脆弱性研究关键文献。Davies在书中介绍了如何用减轻饥荒威胁的方式来预测粮食和生计的不安全。
研究人员及其团队是一个研究领域蓬勃发展的基础要素,通过文献作者共现图谱可以挖掘联系紧密的学者群。从图5可以看出共现图谱中聚类节点比较多,作者合作网络也有形成,其中规模较大的是以Bene C为核心的合作小组,以及以Brown K、Cinner J E为核心的研究小组,另外凭借Eakin H 和Adger W N 在生计脆弱性研究领域所做出的突出贡献,他们小组的合作网络也十分醒目。Bene C是IDS（Institute of Development Studies）中脆弱性和减贫团队的成员,他的工作主要集中在有关治理与自然资源管理政策的贫困和脆弱性分析。Adger W N从事全球环境变化、脆弱性和适应气候变化、环境的政治经济学、制度和生态经济学、人口和迁移、社会和生态恢复能力、自然灾害等研究。Eakin H是亚利桑那州立大学可持续发展学院的副教授,她的研究主要集中在适应性、粮食系统的可持续性、全球环境变化等领域。
从研究机构合作图谱（图6）可以看出,大部分研究机构都处于孤立的状态,其成规模的合作网络还没有形成。其中组织规模最大的是中国科学院、英国利兹大学、孟加拉国达卡大学、英国萨塞克斯大学,它们之间的联系关系紧密。AdgerW N和KellyPM教授所在的东英格兰大学是图中最显著的节点,其在生计脆弱性方面研究历史悠久,研究成果丰硕,是非常重要的研究力量。其中研究力量排名前10的科研机构为：东英格兰大学、哥本哈根大学、麦吉尔大学、利兹大学、萨塞克斯大学、国际林业研究中心(CIFOR) 、亚利桑那大学、牛津大学、亚利桑那州立大学和金山大学。
从国家和地区共现图谱（图7）可知,生计脆弱性研究的主要力量来自于64个国家和地区,主要分布在欧洲、北美、东亚和南亚等地区。其中,欧洲的国家和地区在生计脆弱性研究领域有着较为密切的合作,形成了以英国、德国为首,包括丹麦、荷兰、意大利、西班牙等国家。美国和加拿大所在的北美地区,也是该领域的核心研究力量之一。研究力量排名前10的国家依次是：美国、英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、德国、南非、印度、中国、丹麦和荷兰。
本研究选自Web of science 核心数据库中收录主题为“livelihood Vulnerability”的文献,借助WOS数据库中自带的文献数据分析功能和CiteSpace 的可视化分析功能,对国外生计脆弱性研究概况及发展脉络进行了统计与可视化分析,得出如下结论：
1） 生计脆弱性研究热点从理论分析转向实践应用。从时间、学科及地域维度看,生计脆弱性研究成果呈现逐年快速增加、学科范围不断拓展和研究实力地域上较为集中的特点。生计脆弱性研究主要分布在生态、环境和管理等学科领域,研究力量来自于多方,主要发达国家有美国、英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、德国等,发展中国家包括南非、中国、印度等。研究人员的联系已经形成几个由核心人物组成的网络,但是研究机构之间还是处于孤立状态。
2） 生计脆弱性研究已经形成了坚实的知识基础、代表性文献及作者群体。在生计脆弱性知识演进的过程中,Ellis F的“Rural livelihoods and diversity in developing countries”等7篇文献是生计脆弱性研究领域的知识基础,Ellis F、Smit B、Adger W N、Kelly P M、Davies S和Turner B L等学者为生计脆弱性理论知识基础的构建奠定了坚实的基础。
3） 通过关键词聚类图谱,发现生计脆弱性研究在饥荒（Famine）、减少贫困（Poverty reduction）、生计策略（Livelihood strategy）、艾滋病/援助（HIV/Aid）、南部非洲（Southern Africa）、概念框架（Conceptual framework）、发展政策（Development policy）、社会生态系统（Social ecological system）等前沿研究领域取得新突破。
4） 通过关键词共现分析,发现生计脆弱性研究主要关注气候变化、农业、适应、恢复力、贫穷、风险、非洲等热点问题。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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<p>在人海关系地域系统的基础上提出了人海经济系统的概念，在此基础上对辽宁沿海地区人海经济系统进行研究。采用熵值系数法进行权重赋值，建立脆弱性与敏感性、恢复性函数关系，并对其进行评价。结果表明① 从脆弱性结果分析来看，1996~2009 年辽宁沿海地区人海经济系统脆弱性逐年降低，并从极强脆弱型发展为弱脆弱型；② 1996~2009 年敏感性指数呈现多个“倒U”型连续波动；③ 1996~2009 年，恢复性指数呈现逐年增长的趋势。海洋产业增加值逐年增加，海洋油气产业发展出现波动性的变化，海洋捕捞产量得到了一定程度的控制，海洋产业结构进行了一定程度上的调整，为加快新兴产业发展起到了重要的作用。</p>
Vulnerability in human-sea economic system of Liaoning coastal area in China. Magsci 摘要
<p>在人海关系地域系统的基础上提出了人海经济系统的概念，在此基础上对辽宁沿海地区人海经济系统进行研究。采用熵值系数法进行权重赋值，建立脆弱性与敏感性、恢复性函数关系，并对其进行评价。结果表明① 从脆弱性结果分析来看，1996~2009 年辽宁沿海地区人海经济系统脆弱性逐年降低，并从极强脆弱型发展为弱脆弱型；② 1996~2009 年敏感性指数呈现多个“倒U”型连续波动；③ 1996~2009 年，恢复性指数呈现逐年增长的趋势。海洋产业增加值逐年增加，海洋油气产业发展出现波动性的变化，海洋捕捞产量得到了一定程度的控制，海洋产业结构进行了一定程度上的调整，为加快新兴产业发展起到了重要的作用。</p>
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<p>基于经济系统脆弱性的内涵,从敏感性和应对能力2个方面建立了旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系,采用熵值法确定各评价指标的权重,运用集对分析法构建了脆弱性评估模型。以群岛旅游城市舟山为例,分析了1995～2010年舟山市旅游型经济系统脆弱性的演变特征及主要影响因素。结果表明:① 舟山市经济系统对不利扰动的敏感性呈下降趋势,区域应对能力波动上升,系统脆弱性整体上呈现不断下降态势;② 敏感性的强弱对舟山经济系统脆弱性的影响居于主导地位;③ 总游客量增长率、旅游外汇收入占旅游总收入比重、地方财政自给率、客源市场集中度等是影响系统脆弱性的关键因子;地方财政自给率低、产业结构不合理及教育投入不足是阻碍区域应对能力提升的主要因素。</p>
Vulnerability assessment of tourism city's economic system based on the set pair analysis: A case study of Zhoushan city. Magsci 摘要
<p>基于经济系统脆弱性的内涵,从敏感性和应对能力2个方面建立了旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系,采用熵值法确定各评价指标的权重,运用集对分析法构建了脆弱性评估模型。以群岛旅游城市舟山为例,分析了1995～2010年舟山市旅游型经济系统脆弱性的演变特征及主要影响因素。结果表明:① 舟山市经济系统对不利扰动的敏感性呈下降趋势,区域应对能力波动上升,系统脆弱性整体上呈现不断下降态势;② 敏感性的强弱对舟山经济系统脆弱性的影响居于主导地位;③ 总游客量增长率、旅游外汇收入占旅游总收入比重、地方财政自给率、客源市场集中度等是影响系统脆弱性的关键因子;地方财政自给率低、产业结构不合理及教育投入不足是阻碍区域应对能力提升的主要因素。</p>
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<p>城市脆弱性是指城市在发展过程中抵抗资源、生态环境、经济、社会发展等内外部自然要素和人为要素干扰的能力。当这种抗干扰能力低于某一临界阈值时，城市即进入脆弱状态。城市脆弱性一般包括资源脆弱性、生态环境脆弱性、经济脆弱性和社会脆弱性四大类型，是上述四种脆弱性的综合体现。大庆市是一座典型的资源型城市，具有明显的脆弱性特征。采用系统分析方法和综合指数评价法，分别对城市各子系统脆弱性和城市综合脆弱性动态演变特征进行研究，分析表明：① 1990~2012 年，大庆市资源脆弱性呈现增加趋势，生态环境脆弱性、经济脆弱性、社会脆弱性均呈现降低趋势；② 1990~2012 年大庆市城市综合脆弱性经历了“快速下降-波动下降-加速下降”3 个变化阶段，目前大庆市处于由中脆弱度向较低脆弱度的过度阶段；③ 伴随石油开采和城市发展，大庆市已经从经济主导型脆弱性转变为资源主导型脆弱性，大庆市已处于城市发展的重要历史时期，亟需加快经济转型和城市转型步伐，转则兴，不转则衰。未来，应持续关注资源型城市，加强资源型城市脆弱性的研究，进一步总结城市脆弱性的发生机理与变化规律，为城市转型和实现可持续发展提供科学依据。</p>
Comprehensive evaluation and dynamic evolution analysis of Daqing’s urban vulnerability. Magsci 摘要
<p>城市脆弱性是指城市在发展过程中抵抗资源、生态环境、经济、社会发展等内外部自然要素和人为要素干扰的能力。当这种抗干扰能力低于某一临界阈值时，城市即进入脆弱状态。城市脆弱性一般包括资源脆弱性、生态环境脆弱性、经济脆弱性和社会脆弱性四大类型，是上述四种脆弱性的综合体现。大庆市是一座典型的资源型城市，具有明显的脆弱性特征。采用系统分析方法和综合指数评价法，分别对城市各子系统脆弱性和城市综合脆弱性动态演变特征进行研究，分析表明：① 1990~2012 年，大庆市资源脆弱性呈现增加趋势，生态环境脆弱性、经济脆弱性、社会脆弱性均呈现降低趋势；② 1990~2012 年大庆市城市综合脆弱性经历了“快速下降-波动下降-加速下降”3 个变化阶段，目前大庆市处于由中脆弱度向较低脆弱度的过度阶段；③ 伴随石油开采和城市发展，大庆市已经从经济主导型脆弱性转变为资源主导型脆弱性，大庆市已处于城市发展的重要历史时期，亟需加快经济转型和城市转型步伐，转则兴，不转则衰。未来，应持续关注资源型城市，加强资源型城市脆弱性的研究，进一步总结城市脆弱性的发生机理与变化规律，为城市转型和实现可持续发展提供科学依据。</p>
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Reviewing composite vulnerability and resilience indexes: A sustainable approach and application [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.02.011 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Vulnerability–resilience indexes fail to grasp all dimensions of sustainability, whereas sustainable development has gained momentum. We fill this gap with a hierarchical multimetric composite index (Net Vulnerability Resilience Index: NVRI ) whose robustness relies on a mathematical algorithm based on graph theory. A worldwide application shows that (i) both vulnerability and resilience are policy-responsive and that (ii) there is no determinism for a country to remain vulnerable or resilient. The NVRI enables us to identify a country’s strengths and weaknesses and determine the policy orientations that should be implemented to achieve sustainability.
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Coming to terms with vulnerability: A critique of the food security definition [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/S0306-9192(00)00046-4 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper seeks to improve the practice of vulnerability assessment for food security purposes by addressing long-standing issues that have hampered the development of both theory and methods. In food security contexts, vulnerability is usually defined in relation to an outcome, such as hunger, food insecurity or famine. This precludes employing the concept for the more specific task of evaluating the susceptibility of a population to explicitly-identified exogenous events or shocks that could lead to these outcomes. This lack of specificity has clouded interpretation of causal factors of food insecurity and famine. Alternatively, in a widely-applied framework for disaster risk assessment, the concept of vulnerability serves the more specific purpose of identifying characteristics of population groups or other elements that make them more or less susceptible to experiencing damage when exposed to particular hazards or shocks. Risks of negative outcomes are created by the combination of hazards and vulnerability, and vulnerability is defined by its relation to hazards rather than directly in relation to the outcomes themselves. The result has been an easier and more transparent translation of concepts into practice. That this latter formulation can also be applied in the food security context is illustrated through an analysis of food security risks in Tanzania. The analysis identifies economic alternatives households can exercise to meet their minimum annual food requirements. Exogenous threats or shocks that can suppress or eliminate particular alternatives exercised by different groups are identified as a means of assessing households' vulnerability and consequently their risks of becoming food insecure, or falling below the minimum threshold.
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Understanding livelihood vulnerability to climate change: Applying the livelihood vulnerability index in Trinidad and Tobago [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2013.04.004 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper develops and tests the application of a Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) for agricultural and natural resource-dependent communities in developing countries. The index is applied in a comparative study of two wetland communities in Trinidad and Tobago, a country that is expected to bear some of the most severe impacts of climate change. Our application of the LVI entailed a series of critical focus group discussions involving local community representatives, government officials and researchers. Researchers collected household data for eight types of assets, which were aggregated into composite LVIs and differential vulnerabilities of the two communities being compared. The results of the analysis suggest that one of the communities, “Nariva”, was more vulnerable than the other, “Caroni”, particularly in relation to socio-demographics, health and water security, natural disaster and climate variability. Caroni on the other hand was more vulnerable in relation to other LVI indicators with the exception of food security. On questions of gender, the study found that female-headed households were marginally more vulnerable than male-headed households. Overall, the study suggests that the livelihood vulnerability index can be broadly applied in comparable settings in small-island developing states and other developing countries. In so doing, it provides a reliable methodology that can be used to assess community vulnerability and design management plans in areas with limited resources and access to reliable data.
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Planning the use of fish for food security in the Pacific [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2008.04.002 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<h2 class="secHeading" id="section_abstract">Abstract</h2><p id="">Fish is a mainstay of food security for Pacific island countries and territories (PICTs). Recent household income and expenditure surveys, and socio-economic surveys, demonstrate that subsistence fishing still provides the great majority of dietary animal protein in the region. Forecasts of the fish required in 2030 to meet recommended per capita fish consumption, or to maintain current consumption, indicate that even well-managed coastal fisheries will only be able to meet the demand in 6 of 22 PICTs. Governments of many PICTs will need to increase local access to tuna, and develop small-pond aquaculture, to provide food security. Diversifying the supply of fish will also make rural households in the Pacific more resilient to natural disasters, social and political instability, and the uncertainty of climate change.</p>
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中国北方农牧交错带生态环境脆弱性及其成因分析 [J].
脆弱生态环境单元的两个特征是：环境敏感性和退化趋势。脆弱生态环境的研究不仅具有理论意义，而且有相当重要的实践价值。北方农牧交错带北起大兴安岭两麓向西南延伸，经内蒙古东南、冀北、晋北、直至陕北、鄂尔多斯高原、该地带的地质地貌、气候、生物等自然条件和人文要素，尤其是土地利用方面，都表现出过渡性和波动性特点。这种过渡性和波动性，在一定程度上决定了人类活动方式的不稳定性，进而导致该区域生态环境经常受到冲击和破坏，而将潜在的自然环境脆弱性转化为现实的破坏。因而农牧交错带生态环境表现出敏感性强、退化趋势明显等脆弱特征。本文在综合分析农牧交错带自然条件的基础上，概括出导致该地带生态环境脆弱的四大因素：一、脆弱的地表物质基础和土体构型；第二、降水时间分配不均，多暴雨，利用率不高，且为害严重；三、干旱多风、侵蚀强烈，恶化了生态条件；四、不合理的人为活动干扰和破坏。
Ecological environment vulnerability and its causes of the Gro-pastoral Zone in Northern China.
脆弱生态环境单元的两个特征是：环境敏感性和退化趋势。脆弱生态环境的研究不仅具有理论意义，而且有相当重要的实践价值。北方农牧交错带北起大兴安岭两麓向西南延伸，经内蒙古东南、冀北、晋北、直至陕北、鄂尔多斯高原、该地带的地质地貌、气候、生物等自然条件和人文要素，尤其是土地利用方面，都表现出过渡性和波动性特点。这种过渡性和波动性，在一定程度上决定了人类活动方式的不稳定性，进而导致该区域生态环境经常受到冲击和破坏，而将潜在的自然环境脆弱性转化为现实的破坏。因而农牧交错带生态环境表现出敏感性强、退化趋势明显等脆弱特征。本文在综合分析农牧交错带自然条件的基础上，概括出导致该地带生态环境脆弱的四大因素：一、脆弱的地表物质基础和土体构型；第二、降水时间分配不均，多暴雨，利用率不高，且为害严重；三、干旱多风、侵蚀强烈，恶化了生态条件；四、不合理的人为活动干扰和破坏。
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青藏高原东部样带农牧民生计脆弱性评估 [J].Livelihood vulnerability assessment of farmers and nomads in eastern ecotone of Tibetan Plateau, China. |
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基于GIS和ANN的农户生计脆弱性的空间模拟分析 [J].
基于农户生计脆弱性测定方式的不完善和云贵高原缺乏农户生计脆弱 性研究,选取云南省宜良县为案例区,构建了农户生计脆弱性评价指标体系,包括农户面临的风险、农户生计资本和面对风险的应急能力,并运用GIS与BP神经 网络模拟区域的风险度指数、农户生计资本和应急能力指数的空间分布格局.在此基础上,得到农户生计脆弱性指数,结果表明坝区的生计脆弱性指数为山 区>半山区>坝区,且各自原因不同.可见,运用BP神经网络模拟生计脆弱性简便实用,是一种可行的实践方法.
et al.Spatial simulation using GIS and artificial neural network for household livelihood vulnerability.
基于农户生计脆弱性测定方式的不完善和云贵高原缺乏农户生计脆弱 性研究,选取云南省宜良县为案例区,构建了农户生计脆弱性评价指标体系,包括农户面临的风险、农户生计资本和面对风险的应急能力,并运用GIS与BP神经 网络模拟区域的风险度指数、农户生计资本和应急能力指数的空间分布格局.在此基础上,得到农户生计脆弱性指数,结果表明坝区的生计脆弱性指数为山 区>半山区>坝区,且各自原因不同.可见,运用BP神经网络模拟生计脆弱性简便实用,是一种可行的实践方法.
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Rural livelihoods at risk how Nepalese farmers cope with food insecurity [J].https://doi.org/10.2307/3674097 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Since the early 1990s, Nepal has changed from a net exporter to a net importer of food. Nearly half of Nepal's districts have become deficient in food. The situation is most serious for peripheral mountain regions of the Middle Hills. The paper concentrates on food deficient village communities in fragile mountain tracts of Nepal. It is based on household surveys in six peripheral mountain villages. More than fifty percent of all households are not even self-sufficient in food for six months in a year. The project then focuses on the coping strategies of the mountain farmers which aim at bridging this gap in food supply The analysis reveals highly diverse, complex, and innovative strategies which require high degrees of mobility and activity. There is a general tendency that these strategies are increasingly oriented towards markets. It becomes clear that the growing tendency towards external linkages offers new potentialities, but, at the same time, new risks for the mountain population. The project therefore examines the major determinants which make specific coping strategies more or less successful. In addition to caste and ethnicity, household structures (including work participation patterns, gender composition, age structure, and health status) emerge as most decisive factors. Despite all efforts, the majority of the mountain population, nevertheless, is severely undernourished. For an increasing proportion of the village people, survival has becomes a permanent crisis.
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Droughts and famines: The underlying factors and the causal links among agro-pastoral households in semi-arid Makueni district, Kenya [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.05.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Famines are often linked to drought in semi-arid areas of Sub-Saharan Africa where not only pastoralists, but also increasingly agro-pastoralists are affected. This study addresses the interplay between drought and famine in the rural semi-arid areas of Makueni district, Kenya, by examining whether, and how crop production conditions and agro-pastoral strategies predispose smallholder households to drought-triggered food insecurity. If this hypothesis holds, then approaches to deal with drought and famine have to target factors causing household food insecurity during non-drought periods. Data from a longitudinal survey of 127 households, interviews, workshops, and daily rainfall records (1961鈥2003) were analysed using quantitative and qualitative methods. This integrated approach confirms the above hypothesis and reveals that factors other than rainfall, like asset and labour constraints, inadequate policy enforcement, as well as the poverty-driven inability to adopt risk-averse production systems play a key role. When linking these factors to the high rainfall variability, farmer-relevant definitions and forecasts of drought have to be applied.
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The paradoxes of environmental policy and resource management in reform-era China [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1944-8287.2000.tb00143.x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Thanks to Piers Blaikie for his constructive critiques of a number of drafts of this manuscript. I would also like to thank Joseph Nevins, Alex Clapp, and Patrick Burns for their insightful comments and research assistants Manija Said and Bahram Fazeli for adding depth and detail. Two anonymous referees and the editors of Economic Geography also provided helpful comments. I would also like to thank Jeri Stolk for her superb copy editing, which significantly clarified my prose. Funding for this research was provided by grants from the MacArthur Foundation, the UCLA Academic Senate, and UCLA's International Studies and Overseas Programs. Of course, all shortcomings of the final manuscript are solely the responsibility of the author.
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Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: Cases from Central Mexico [J]. |
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The poverty-HIV/AIDS nexus in Africa: A livelihood approach [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2006.10.009 URL PMID: 17126972 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper reviews the nexus between poverty and HIV/AIDS in Africa using a sustainable livelihood framework. Much of the literature on HIV and AIDS has generated an almost universal consensus that the AIDS epidemic is having an immense impact on the economies of hard-hit countries, hurting not only individuals, families and firms, but also significantly slowing economic growth and worsening poverty. International evidence has concentrated on the pathways through which HIV/AIDS undermines livelihoods and raises vulnerability to future collapse of livelihoods. Yet, little attention has been paid to the role that social relations and livelihood strategies can play in bringing about risky social interaction that raises the chance of contracting HIV. Using the sustainable livelihood and social relation approaches, this article demonstrates that although AIDS is not simply a disease of the poor, determinants of the epidemic go far beyond individual volition and that some dimensions of being poor increase risk and vulnerability to HIV.
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Risking death for survival: Peasant responses to hunger and HIV/AIDS in Malawi [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2006.01.007 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Malawi registers the eighth highest HIV/AIDS prevalence in the world. The rural population’s increasing HIV prevalence is analyzed in relation to the impact of the country’s 2001–02 famine. Villagers are assessing survival risks on the basis of perceptions of relative manageability. A sense of powerlessness concerning their vulnerability to HIV/AIDS leads to concentration on the more immediate concern of trying to ensure their day-to-day staple food needs. Changing rural land and labor patterns are militating for more transaction-based rural livelihoods, some involving high-risk sexual encounters, as a means of alleviating hunger.
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New variant famine: AIDS and food crisis in southern Africa [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14548-5 URL PMID: 14568749 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Southern Africa is undergoing a food crisis of surprising scale and novelty. The familiar culprits of drought and mismanagement of national strategies are implicated. However, this crisis is distinct from conventional drought-induced food shortages with respect to those vulnerable to starvation, and the course of impoverishment and recovery. We propose that these new aspects to the food crisis can be attributed largely to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the region. We present evidence that we are facing a new variant famine. We have used frameworks drawn from famine theory to examine the implications. HIV/AIDS has created a new category of highly vulnerable households鈥 namely, those with ill adults or those whose adults have died. The general burden of care in both AIDS-affected and non-AIDS-affected households has reduced the viability of farming livelihoods. The sensitivity of rural communities to external shocks such as drought has increased, and their resilience has declined. The prospects for a sharp decline into severe famine are increased, and possibilities for recovery reduced.
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Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.05.002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Elsevier’s Scopus, the largest abstract and citation database of peer-reviewed literature. Search and access research from the science, technology, medicine, social sciences and arts and humanities fields.
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Putting the principles of the sustainable livelihoods approach into fisheries development policy and practice [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2006.02.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) combines a conceptual framework with a set of operational principles to provide guidance on policy formulation and development practice. The SLA has been widely used in coastal and fisheries development research and has informed the design of development programmes but experience of operationalising it remains largely undocumented. In the Sustainable Fisheries Livelihoods Programme, which involves 25 West African countries, the SLA has helped to align fisheries policy with wider poverty reduction initiatives and to identify means of contributing to poverty reduction that do not directly increase pressure on fully or over-exploited fish resources.
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Seagrass meadows globally as a coupled social-ecological system: Implications for human wellbeing [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2013.06.001 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Seagrass ecosystems are diminishing worldwide and repeated studies confirm a lack of appreciation for the value of these systems. In order to highlight their value we provide the first discussion of seagrass meadows as a coupled social-ecological system on a global scale. We consider the impact of a declining resource on people, including those for whom seagrass meadows are utilised for income generation and a source of food security through fisheries support. Case studies from across the globe are used to demonstrate the intricate relationship between seagrass meadows and people that highlight the multi-functional role of seagrasses in human wellbeing. While each case underscores unique issues, these examples simultaneously reveal social-ecological coupling that transcends cultural and geographical boundaries. We conclude that understanding seagrass meadows as a coupled social-ecological system is crucial in carving pathways for social and ecological resilience in light of current patterns of local to global environmental change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Exploring mangrove social-ecological system dynamics in South-East Asia: Llinking livelihoods, vulnerability and ecosystem services in Vietnam[R]. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 169, |
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Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs.
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Brown K et al. Adaptation to climate change in the developing world [J]. |
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Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation [J].https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005627828199 Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<a name="Abs1"></a>We discuss approaches to the assessment of vulnerability to climatevariability and change andattempt to clarify the relationship between the concepts of vulnerability andadaptation. In searchof a robust, policy-relevant framework, we define vulnerability in terms ofthe capacity ofindividuals and social groups to respond to, that is, to cope with, recoverfrom or adapt to, anyexternal stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. The approach thatwe develop placesthe social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis,focussing on thesocio-economic and institutional constraints that limit the capacity torespond. From thisperspective, the vulnerability or security of any group is determined byresource availability andby the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. Weillustrate theapplication of this approach through the results of field research in coastalVietnam, highlightingshifting patterns of vulnerability to tropical storm impacts at the household-and community-levelin response to the current process of economic renovation and drawingconclusions concerningmeans of supporting the adaptive response to climate stress. Four prioritiesfor action areidentified that would improve the situation of the most exposed members ofmany communities:poverty reduction; risk-spreading through income diversification; respectingcommon propertymanagement rights; and promoting collective security. A sustainable response,we argue, mustalso address the underlying causes of social vulnerability, including theinequitable distributionof resources.
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