黄建毅
, 苏飞
Huang Jianyi, Su Fei
中图分类号: X43
文献标识码: A
文章编号: 1000-0690（2017）08-1211-07
通讯作者:
收稿日期: 2017-03-16
修回日期: 2017-05-10
网络出版日期: 2017-08-15
版权声明: 2017 《地理科学》编辑部 本文是开放获取期刊文献，在以下情况下可以自由使用：学术研究、学术交流、科研教学等，但不允许用于商业目的.
基金资助:
作者简介:
作者简介：黄建毅(1984-),男,河南许昌人,博士,讲师,主要从事城市灾害脆弱性研究。E-mail: jianyi@buu.edu.cn
展开
摘要
对城市灾害社会脆弱性研究的热点问题及趋向进行了深入的梳理和总结。研究发现,现阶段社会脆弱性研究已经成为城市灾害脆弱性的重要研究范式,但学者们在城市灾害社会脆弱性综合维度的界定、脆弱性评估方法构建、社会脆弱性与灾害种类相关性判读以及研究尺度选取等方面存在明显的争议。对这些争议进行了深入探讨,并对未来城市灾害社会脆弱性研究进行了展望,以期为中国城市防灾减灾工作提供科学参考。
关键词：
Abstract
With the rapid urbanization development, China is facing the realistic demand of urban disaster prevention and mitigation presently. Strengthening the research on the urban social vulnerability to disaster and promoting the sound and safety development of urban has an important academic and practical significance. Based on the domestic and foreign research of urban social vulnerability to disaster, this article tries to make a deep review and summary, which focuses on some hot issues on urban social vulnerability to disasters. The study finds that: Presently, the social vulnerability has become an important research paradigm for urban vulnerability to disaster. However, scholars have obvious controversy on definition of the comprehensive dimension of social vulnerability to urban disaster, construction of vulnerability assessment method, interpretation of the relationship between social vulnerability and natural hazards, and the selection of the study scale etc. This article attempts to make an in-depth discussion on these disputes, and puts forward future research direction for the urban social vulnerability to disaster research, which will provide some scientific basis for the future work of urban disaster prevention and mitigation of China.
Keywords：
21世纪以来,随着中国城市化进程的快速推进,城市活动的高度聚集和空间失衡问题日益突出,已对城市可持续发展构成了严重威胁[1]。据相关资料统计,中国每年因灾害和公共安全等突发性事件造成的死亡人数超过20万人,受灾人数达到1.5~3.5亿人,经济损失超过6 500亿元,约占国内生产总值的3%~6%[2]。纵观这些伤亡与损失,主要集中于城市区域,这与中国城镇化过程中过于追求空间扩张和发展速度,而导致城市灾害脆弱性水平上升有着密切关系[3];同时受城市系统自身的复杂性和高强度人工环境特征的影响,不仅会导致灾害的潜在因子产生,也会对灾害事件的消极影响具有明显的强化和扩散效应。在新型城镇化战略背景下,“安全宜居”的城市生活构建,成为未来中国城镇化的重要发展方向,城市的防灾与减灾不可忽视[4]。然而就城市灾害的本质而言,无论是自然灾害,还是社会事件,其发生概率与动力学规律都很难预测和控制,唯一可控的要素就是应对灾害的脆弱性[5],城市灾害社会脆弱性研究为城市可持续发展及其宜居生活的构建提供了新的研究视角。
20世纪80年代以来,脆弱性研究逐步发展为全球环境变化和可持续性科学研究的热点领域,随着相关概念、评价方法和分析框架的不断完善,脆弱性研究逐渐建立了一个基础性科学知识体系,并且凭借在人地相互作用程度、机理和过程分析中的独特优势,逐渐发展为可持续性科学的重要研究范式之一[6,7]。城市是人类文明和财富最重要的载体,然而城市活动的高度聚集和空间失控已成为城市安全的隐患,当面临突发事件扰动时,城市表现出明显的脆弱性特征,受传统灾害风险学派的影响,学者们在城市灾害自然脆弱性研究方面取得了丰硕成果[8,9]。但由于学科背景与研究视角不同,学者们对城市灾害社会脆弱性的内涵界定、影响因素识别、评估方法等问题仍未达成共识[10~12]。本文在国内外相关文献进行梳理基础上,尝试对城市灾害社会脆弱性研究热点问题进行深入探讨,以期为深化城市灾害社会脆弱性研究,促进城市实现永续发展提供科学参考。
20世纪末,愈来愈多的学者和国际社会开始关注这样一个问题：人类社会在灾害面前是否变得更加易损或脆弱?脆弱性逐渐成为灾害风险研究的一个重要主题。灾害脆弱性的研究源于对早期致灾因子决定论的反思与批判[13]。就20世纪而言,虽然极端自然灾害爆发的频率并没有显著增加,但全球因灾造成的人员伤亡和物质财产损失却显著增加,这是传统的灾害研究范式所不能解释的。实际上,学术界对于灾害脆弱性研究可以划分两种研究范式,即自然脆弱性和社会脆弱性[10]。具体来讲,自然脆弱性研究强调灾害对系统产生伤害的程度,不考虑人类的主动应对能力,着重分析人类社会在灾害发生区域的暴露情况[14]。而社会脆弱性研究主要侧重于个人（群体）、组织及社会暴露于不利事件或灾害冲击下潜在的抵抗力或恢复能力,从本质上讲,社会脆弱性强调系统内部固有或隐性的脆弱属性特征,在遭受灾害胁迫时,会以灾情或者损失的形式进行显化。在灾害因子难以控制而人为因素可调节的现实背景下,越来越多的学者开始从注重自然环境恶化产生的脆弱性,向注重人类活动对脆弱性影响的方向转变[15]（表1）。
表1 社会脆弱性与自然脆弱性的比较
Table 1 Comparison of social vulnerability and physical vulnerability
| 脆弱性类别 | 评估方式 | 决定因素 |
|---|---|---|
| 自然脆弱性 | 一种特定类型灾害的发生频率与强度的函数 | 灾害本身、灾害的强度与灾害发生时暴露在灾害影响区的人口决定其脆弱性水平,是被动型的暴露受灾评估方式 |
| 社会脆弱性 | 可以决定灾害事件强度或者结果的所有因素 | 人类社会系统固有的特征能决定自然灾害的结果,因此自然环境的变项及暴露的尺度与人类社会自身的特质是评估的决定因子,考虑到人类社会主动应灾能力 |
灾害社会脆弱性研究,将人们防灾减灾的视线从单纯的致灾因子研究和工程防御措施,转移到人类对自然灾害的行为响应,指出可以通过调整人类行为而减少灾害影响和损失,为城市综合减灾提供了新的方向,社会脆弱性研究也开始成为城市灾害脆弱性研究热点[16~18]。事实上,城市灾害脆弱性不仅来源于自然环境系统,在城市高强度的人类活动影响下,人为致灾问题尤为突出,中国日益频发的城市内涝就是很好的例证[19]。对于单纯的自然致灾因子,虽然人们可以通过一些措施进行干预,但调控的能力有限,且具体的措施还是要依靠人类自身调节而进行。因此对于城市灾害研究,有必要把眼光集中于社会过程,即自然灾害的社会属性,降低城市的社会脆弱性水平,才是提高城市防灾抗灾能力的重要途径,从而实现有灾无害的目标。
随着灾害社会脆弱性研究的日益深入,社会脆弱性关注焦点也发生了改变。最初的城市灾害社会脆弱性研究,多源于人类学和社会生态学研究领域,关注社会的脆弱群体,包括：低收入群体,老人和小孩,残障群体,多子女家庭,以及少数民族等。具体指标选取方面,通常选取社会群体的主要生理与社会经济特征（年龄、性别、民族、健康状况、收入、出生率、社会地位和工作性质等）来进行相关统计描述,强调社会脆弱性在一定程度上是社会不平等的产物[20,21],着重分析哪些社会因素形成或者影响各类人群灾害敏感性以及他们的反应能力。由于这些群体在发生灾难时更容易受到伤害,通过对各类脆弱群体的分析,为相关政府部门提供参考,以便更合理地分配资源,有针对性地采取措施降低社会脆弱性,从而受到广大学者和政府管理部门的采用和推广。
由于城市内部具有系统性和复杂性特征,过去那种仅仅关注脆弱群体属性特征的研究思路,已经不能满足当前城市灾害社会脆弱性研究的现实需要[22]。城市灾害社会脆弱性除了与人群的生理、社会经济属性特征有关,也与人们所处的建成环境有着密切关系[23,24],如社会网络、城市公共服务设施水平、建筑结构类型、人口密度、政府组织管理等（图1）。这些因素也会对其应对灾害脆弱性,尤其是灾害恢复能力有着重要影响,并且在空间上存在着显著的差异性。因此从城市空间综合维度出发,综合考虑城市社会经济、建筑性质、公共设施可达性、政策制度等城市环境因素特点,开展综合维度下城市灾害社会脆弱性研究,已得到广大学者们的共识[25,26]。
图1 德怀尔的多维度社会脆弱性评估模式
Fig.1 The social vulnerability multidimensional assessment model of Dwyer
城市灾害社会脆弱性强调导致受灾的原因,不仅是由自然因素造成的实质损害,人类社会系统自身的结构或功能缺陷也会严重影响灾害受损的程度,因此对于城市灾害社会脆弱性,学者们有灾害相关性与灾害独立性两种看法[27]。部分学者认为尽管社会脆弱性不是灾害发生的应变量,但是某些区域内特定的社会特质将会使其社会群体在面对某一特定的灾害类型时更加脆弱,如住房结构及质量在地震灾害社会脆弱性研究中具有较高的重要性,而对于干旱灾害的发生就具有较低重要性,故强调针对不同灾害类型开展城市社会脆弱性研究,如地震、洪灾、飓风、海啸等灾害[28,29]。无可置疑,上述研究思路有目的明确、方法简单的特点,但也存在以下局限性：首先,扰动源方面,受灾害链影响,灾害事件极少会单独发生并会诱发其他灾害形式[30,31],该现象在城市这个特别复杂的人工环境中尤为突出,研究所设计的针对单灾种扰动因素的评估,不可避免地隐含着复合扰动因素的影响。其次,由于城市不可能面临单一的灾害类型,在进行城市多灾种社会脆弱性耦合评估方面,对于分灾种社会脆弱性评估结果,如何进行有效的归并和融合是一个非常棘手的问题[32~34]。
在此背景下,有学者开始尝试提出了城市灾害独立性的社会脆弱性评估模式,即从灾害社会脆弱性内涵出发,强调社会脆弱性是源于人类社会自身的某些特质,尽管社会脆弱性不是灾害发生的应变量,但是某些特定社会特质将会使社会群体在面对任何灾害时更加脆弱。具体来讲,虽然某些因素在面临不同灾害时对社会脆弱性的影响程度不同,但社会脆弱性是关于人类社会应对灾害的整体性评估,社会系统各因素是相互关联和影响的,且主要的社会脆弱性特质是不受灾害类型变化影响,如贫穷、年龄、民族、健康状况、收入等因素。鉴于城市面临着多重灾害扰动的特点及城市系统复杂灾害链的考虑,不过分强调城市具体灾害类型,城市灾害脆弱性应该是人类社会应对城市灾害事件的整体性评估[35],基于灾害独立性观点的城市灾害脆弱性研究逐步得到学者们的认可和应用。
目前灾害社会脆弱性评估研究仍处于探索阶段,缺乏统一的模式。Cutter提出的社会脆弱性指数（Social vulnerability index,SoVI）方法,可有效揭示区域的社会脆弱性的时空格局,并能够适用于不同地理环境与时空尺度[36],具有思路方法简洁的特点,得到了学者们的广泛应用。然而该方法通过对社会脆弱性因素的逐层深化与抽象,以唯一的脆弱性值来反映地区社会脆弱性水平,在评估方法和结果应用方面存在一定弊端：首先,多指标社会脆弱性因素的合成方法与指标权重设定存在着较多争议[37,38];其次,由于社会脆弱性是多维度、多层次的模型体系,表现形式应各有不同[8]。社会脆弱性指数能够给人们以直观的印象,找到最为脆弱的单元或者人群,但其脆弱性的多维信息被忽略了,使得地区差异化的脆弱性关键因素没有得到充分体现[39],不利于规划或者管理者的决策制定,需要新的评估思路与研究方法进行补充。简单举例,同样是社会脆弱性较高的地区,甲地区可能由于地区经济水平较低造成的,而乙地区或许是建筑结构水平较低导致的,然而根据一维化的社会脆弱性评估值,政府及相关决策者不能做出最快或者有效的判断。
就城市自身而言,城市活动与空间发展具有显著的非均衡性,导致城市社会脆弱性具有异质性特征。从空间异质性视角,构建新的评估方法对城市社会脆弱性空间分异格局进行识别,能够为城市相关规划决策提供更有针对性的科学参考。空间异质性(Spatial heterogeneity）是一种普遍存在的自然、社会或文化现象,已在景观生态学中得到了广泛应用[40]。从本质上来讲,空间异质性强调系统或系统属性在空间上的复杂性和变异性[41],由于城市活动与空间发展具有显著的非均衡性,在斑块化地域景观格局、城市功能分区及社会空间分异等因素的影响下,城市灾害社会脆弱性作为一个多维度、多层次的系统属性特征,具有脆弱性要素组成的复杂性及不同地域空间脆弱性要素组合形式多样性的特质,从而在城市空间内存在差异化的社会脆弱性特质[42],表现出明显的空间异质性特征[43]。简单举例,城市内的生态脆弱地域,由于城市盲目扩张,对生态脆弱地区的侵占而导致的脆弱性特质,在脆弱性机理和特征上,就与城市核心区域高密度人口集聚而诱发的脆弱性存在明显差别,而传统一维化定量评估方式,有可能将两者归为一类高脆弱地区,其脆弱性特质没能得到充分体现（图2）。立足于空间异质性研究视角,采用定量分析与定性解析相结合的方法,将不同地区社会脆弱性的多维信息或异质性特征展示在地图上,借鉴地方灾害模型,结合城市灾害影响范围,对不同地域单元社会脆弱性特质及主要脆弱性过程机理进行解析[44],将有助于相关规划人员,有针对性地引导城市内的人类活动方式、强度与空间布局,实现城市社会脆弱性水平的降低。
图2 空间异质性评估与传统社会脆弱性评估的对比
Fig.2 Comparison of the spatial heterogeneity and traditional social vulnerability assessment
尺度是地理学研究的重要议题,城市灾害的社会脆弱性具有明显的空间尺度依赖性特征[45]。城市灾害社会脆弱性在不同空间尺度上,具有不同的表现形式或特征,如在宏观尺度上,国民经济的运行状况会有较大影响,而在较小空间尺度,人类社会的人口特征、城市公共服务资源的配给状况及社会公平性因素的影响会比较显著;另外,城市灾害社会脆弱性的空间分布特征,也会随着空间尺度的变化而改变,宏观尺度层面,较为分散的格局,在小尺度范围内可能会呈现明显的集聚态势。就目前而言,由于数据获取和方法的局限性,以及传统的“自上而下”灾害风险管理制度的影响,现已开展的城市灾害社会脆弱性研究,较多是对城市或区域尺度层面进行的整体评价[46],重在强调区域整体社会发展水平状态的一个测度。
开展城市和区域尺度的脆弱性研究,有利于从宏观上把握国家和区域的脆弱性态势,从而有利于从宏观战略层面对城市或区域防灾救灾资源和设施布局提供参考。然而宏观尺度的脆弱性研究,不能反映其内部小尺度范围内（或连续空间）的社会脆弱性的变化[47],难以为精准的防灾、减灾及灾后恢复重建供有效信息,随着人们对“自下而上”灾害管理模式的关注,着眼于地方尺度,开展城市内部的微观尺度的社会脆弱性评估成为城市的灾害风险分析和管理的关键环节[11]。鉴于城市或区域内部不同地区的社会脆弱性空间分异的本底特征,并考虑到目前城市精细化管理的现实需要,亟需开展街道或者社区等小尺度层面的城市灾害脆弱性研究,从而更有助于加深人们对城市的灾害风险分析和关键要素及过程的理解。
鉴于中国城市面临严峻的防灾减灾现实需求,以及城市脆弱性作为城市灾害频发主要内因的学术共识,本文对目前城市灾害社会脆弱性研究的热点问题进行了梳理和总结。城市灾害脆弱性研究自20世纪70年代至今已取得长足进展,研究领域逐步拓宽,研究方法呈现多样化趋势。总体而言,相对于传统的“风险-暴露”的城市灾害自然脆弱性研究模式,从城市内部结构特征出发,剖析自身的社会脆弱性因素,更能适应当前城市灾害脆弱性研究的现实需要。另外考虑到城市多重灾害的扰动特征、城市社会脆弱性多维属性特征及现有定量评估手段的局限性,立足于空间异质性研究视角,将脆弱性研究理论融入城市地理研究中,并以微观尺度为研究视角,采用定量分析与定性解析相结合的研究方法,开展城市内部的灾害社会脆弱性空间分异特征研究,探究多重灾害扰动情景下城市社会脆弱性热点地区及其主要影响因素,提出差异化城市社会脆弱性调控策略,应成为未来城市灾害脆弱性研究的一个重要方向和议题,从而为城市灾害风险管理及可持续发展提供科学参考。
城市灾害社会脆弱性研究,一直是城市灾害风险管理研究的重点和难点,如何科学测度城市灾害社会脆弱性,如何应对与调控城市灾害脆弱性,也是学者们一直苦苦思索并试图回答的问题。然而由于城市系统的复杂性及脆弱性概念的多元性,城市灾害社会脆弱性研究是一项复杂的系统工程,相关学者从不同研究视角出发,做了大量深入的研究工作,本文只是对当前城市灾害社会脆弱性研究中的部分争议和热点问题进行了讨论,不可避免还有许多未涉及到的研究内容,会在今后的研究中进一步补充和完善。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
| [1] |
中国快速城市化过程中的资源环境保障问题与对策建议 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-3045.2009.05.002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
中国的城市化决定着中国的未来和世界城市化进程,而中国的资源环境保障程度又直接影响着中国城市化的速度与质量.研究表明,过去30年我国城市化进程相对于世界平均状况而言,速度快但水平低.未来20年我国将有超过60%的人口居住在城市,快速城市化进程将带来日益严峻的资源环境保障问题和资源环境剥夺问题.针对这些问题,建议立足资源环境承载能力,从国家安全角度建设资源节约型与环境友好型城市;推行适速适度的城市化发展模式,不断提高城镇化发展质量;在国家"十二五"规划及中长期规划中应淡化城市化增长指标,突出资源环境约束指标;逐步消减快速城市化进程中诱发的资源环境剥夺行为,推进和谐城市化;建立中国城市化的资源环境保障转移机制,推进安全城市化;采用多维指标的领导干部政绩考核机制,以科学的评价机制促进科学的城市化.
Issues of resources and environment protection in China rapid urbanization process and suggestions on countermeasures. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-3045.2009.05.002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
中国的城市化决定着中国的未来和世界城市化进程,而中国的资源环境保障程度又直接影响着中国城市化的速度与质量.研究表明,过去30年我国城市化进程相对于世界平均状况而言,速度快但水平低.未来20年我国将有超过60%的人口居住在城市,快速城市化进程将带来日益严峻的资源环境保障问题和资源环境剥夺问题.针对这些问题,建议立足资源环境承载能力,从国家安全角度建设资源节约型与环境友好型城市;推行适速适度的城市化发展模式,不断提高城镇化发展质量;在国家"十二五"规划及中长期规划中应淡化城市化增长指标,突出资源环境约束指标;逐步消减快速城市化进程中诱发的资源环境剥夺行为,推进和谐城市化;建立中国城市化的资源环境保障转移机制,推进安全城市化;采用多维指标的领导干部政绩考核机制,以科学的评价机制促进科学的城市化.
|
| [2] |
中国城市化进程中的脆弱性分析 [J].https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1224.2011.00240 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
我国正处于快速城市化时期,人 口和产业向城市加速聚集。从已有的国际经验看,在这一阶段城市快速发展与防灾能力不足的矛盾将日益尖锐,城市脆弱性将日益突出。作为目前世界上灾害最严重 的国家之一,如何最大限度地降低城市脆弱性,切实有效地提高城市防灾减灾能力,推动城市化安全和健康发展,已经成为我国当前所必须面对的重要问题。本文将 借鉴国际经验,以"去脆弱性"为目的,以空间、经济、社会、环境等领域为背景,探讨快速城市化背景下提高我国城市安全的可行途径。
Vulnerability analysis in the process of urbanization in China. https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1224.2011.00240 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
我国正处于快速城市化时期,人 口和产业向城市加速聚集。从已有的国际经验看,在这一阶段城市快速发展与防灾能力不足的矛盾将日益尖锐,城市脆弱性将日益突出。作为目前世界上灾害最严重 的国家之一,如何最大限度地降低城市脆弱性,切实有效地提高城市防灾减灾能力,推动城市化安全和健康发展,已经成为我国当前所必须面对的重要问题。本文将 借鉴国际经验,以"去脆弱性"为目的,以空间、经济、社会、环境等领域为背景,探讨快速城市化背景下提高我国城市安全的可行途径。
|
| [3] |
基于历史暴雨洪涝灾情数据的城市脆弱性定量研究——以北京市为例 [J].https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.05.011 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>基于历史暴雨洪涝灾情数据构建脆弱性曲线,定量研究北京市在不同降雨量下的宏观脆弱性。分析显示,在现有的抗灾能力下,相同降雨量所导致的农作物受灾率值最高,死亡失踪率值最低;随着最大2 d降雨量增大,承灾体的损失率增加明显,当最大2 d降雨量重现周期达到百年一遇时,在现有的社会经济暴露状况下,受灾人口数将达到147.4万人,死亡失踪人数也将有可能达到50人左右,农作物受灾面积有可能达到7万hm<sup>2</sup>,倒塌和损坏房屋将可能达到60万间,直接经济损失可能超过400亿元。北京市的洪涝灾害风险管理力度还有待加强。</p>
An urban vulnerability study based on historical flood data: A case study of Beijing. https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.05.011 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p>基于历史暴雨洪涝灾情数据构建脆弱性曲线,定量研究北京市在不同降雨量下的宏观脆弱性。分析显示,在现有的抗灾能力下,相同降雨量所导致的农作物受灾率值最高,死亡失踪率值最低;随着最大2 d降雨量增大,承灾体的损失率增加明显,当最大2 d降雨量重现周期达到百年一遇时,在现有的社会经济暴露状况下,受灾人口数将达到147.4万人,死亡失踪人数也将有可能达到50人左右,农作物受灾面积有可能达到7万hm<sup>2</sup>,倒塌和损坏房屋将可能达到60万间,直接经济损失可能超过400亿元。北京市的洪涝灾害风险管理力度还有待加强。</p>
|
| [4] |
|
| [5] |
脆弱性——突发事件形成与发展的本质原因 [J].Vulnerability—The intrinsic reason of the emergency disaster. |
| [6] |
Environment and development: Sustainability science [J].https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1059386 URL [本文引用: 1] |
| [7] |
A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science [J].https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231335100 URL [本文引用: 1] |
| [8] |
Vulnerability [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006 URL [本文引用: 2] |
| [9] |
Vulnerability of US cities to environmental hazards [J].https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1279 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
As cities continue to increase in size, population diversity, and complexity their vulnerability to future disasters will increase as well. This paper explores the variability in vulnerability to natural hazards among the 132 urban areas using three indices of vulnerability: social, built environment, and hazard impact. The paper then examines the relative levels of vulnerability compared to federal UASI funding. The paper demonstrates that vulnerability manifests itself as a place-based regional phenomenon, with the most vulnerable cities located in the eastern half of the U.S. The relative importance of the underlying correlates changes from city to city across the United States with social vulnerability assuming greater importance in the South and Southwest, and built environment vulnerability showing regional primacy as the driving indicator among Northeastern and Midwestern cities. Based on this empirical analysis, New Orleans was the most vulnerable urban area in the U.S. yet received only one percent of the preparedness resources awarded by the federal government.
|
| [10] |
自然灾害社会脆弱性研究进展 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2014.02.025 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
在归纳总结国内外相关社会脆弱性研究的基础上,探讨了自然和社会脆弱性研究的区别,概述了社会脆弱性研究的关键问题,并总结了现有社会脆弱性研究不足.研究指出现有社会脆弱性研究在其理论体系、评价方法和权重确定等方面有待完善,特定自然灾害或不利事件影响下综合(自然和社会)脆弱性的动态研究是灾害研究中亟待开展的课题.
Research progress on social vulnerability to natural disasters. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2014.02.025 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
在归纳总结国内外相关社会脆弱性研究的基础上,探讨了自然和社会脆弱性研究的区别,概述了社会脆弱性研究的关键问题,并总结了现有社会脆弱性研究不足.研究指出现有社会脆弱性研究在其理论体系、评价方法和权重确定等方面有待完善,特定自然灾害或不利事件影响下综合(自然和社会)脆弱性的动态研究是灾害研究中亟待开展的课题.
|
| [11] |
Measuring social vulnerability to natural hazards in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-015-0769-7 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Social vulnerability in this study represents the differences between the capacity to cope with natural hazards and disaster losses suffered within and between places. The assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step in understanding natural hazard risks and enhancing effective response capabilities. This article presents an initial study of the social vulnerability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (B-T-H) Region in China. The goal is to replicate and test the applicability of the United States Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) method in a Chinese cultural context. Thirty-nine variables adapted from the SoVI were collected in relation to two aspects: socioeconomic vulnerability and built environment vulnerability. Using factor analysis, seven factors were extracted from the variable set: the structure of social development, the level of economic and government financial strength, social justice and poverty, family structure, the intensity of space development, the status of residential housing and transportation, and building structure. Factor scores were summed to get the final SoVI scores and the most and least vulnerable units were identified and mapped. The highest social vulnerability is concentrated in the northwest of the study area. The least socially vulnerable areas are mainly distributed in the Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang core urban peripheral and central city areas of the prefecture-level cities. The results show that this method is a useful tool for revealing places that have a high level of vulnerability, in other words, areas which are more likely to face significant challenges in coping with a large-scale event. These findings could provide a scientific basis for policy making and the implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China.
|
| [12] |
脆弱性的概念及其评价方法 [J].Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability. |
| [13] |
基于DEA模型的中国自然灾害区域脆弱性评价 [J].https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2010070001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
应用数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA)模型对我国自然灾害的区域脆弱性水平进行研究,在区域灾害系统理论的组织框架下,从区域自然灾害危险性、区域承灾体暴露性和区域自然灾害损失度三个方面构建了区域自然灾害系统的DEA投入产出模型,并利用模型得出的区域自然灾害成灾效率对区域自然灾害的脆弱性进行模拟反映,对我国自然灾害脆弱性的区域分异特征进行分析.研究发现:我国自然灾害脆弱性的整体水平较高,地域格局为西部>中部>东部,且脆弱性水平与地区经济水平具有明显的负相关关系,经济发达地区的脆弱性相对较低.
The assessment of regional vulnerability to natural disasters in China based on DEA model. https://doi.org/10.11821/yj2010070001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
应用数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA)模型对我国自然灾害的区域脆弱性水平进行研究,在区域灾害系统理论的组织框架下,从区域自然灾害危险性、区域承灾体暴露性和区域自然灾害损失度三个方面构建了区域自然灾害系统的DEA投入产出模型,并利用模型得出的区域自然灾害成灾效率对区域自然灾害的脆弱性进行模拟反映,对我国自然灾害脆弱性的区域分异特征进行分析.研究发现:我国自然灾害脆弱性的整体水平较高,地域格局为西部>中部>东部,且脆弱性水平与地区经济水平具有明显的负相关关系,经济发达地区的脆弱性相对较低.
|
| [14] |
巨大灾害后的脆弱性:台湾集集地震后中部地区土地利用与覆盖变迁 [J].https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2006.02.013 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p> 自2004年底的南亚大海啸、美国遭受飓风侵袭以来，人类社会如何采取应对措施以降低灾害的冲击成为国际科学界的一个重要议题。台湾在几年前也遭遇巨大的地震灾害，1999年9月21日凌晨，震中发源于台湾中部、芮氏规模7.3级的巨大地震，造成全台湾2 000多人死亡，8 000多人受伤，除了造成直接的经济社会损失外，也造成山区土石松滑、地层松动与山崩，直接改变了地表的覆盖状况。在后续几年台风所带来的强风豪雨下，丰沛的降雨量使原本因地震而松滑的土石大量滑落，造成严重的土石流灾害，河床也因土石泥沙的堆积而被提升，形成严重的洪患。这些自然环境的变化不仅再次改变地表的覆盖，也使重建后的小区面临极大的灾害风险。此次冲击促使当地居民重新思考人地关系之意义，通过重建过程凝聚小区意识，发展有别于过去的土地利用形态。因此为检验当地居民对灾害的暴露程度、敏感性与适应能力，本研究采用近年来在国际环境灾害研究课题备受重视的脆弱性研究途径，并利用野外调查以及遥测与地理信息系统分析呈现地震后的土地覆盖变化。希望通过分析人与环境系统的变化，以及人类社群的社会内部固有特质，归纳出重要机制以发展降低脆弱性的策略。<br /> 研究结果显示，灾害是人与环境耦合系统(coupled system)共同形成的结果，非单一的独立事件，也不是不可避免的；且地方的脆弱性具有演化与多元化的特性，同一地方下不同族群与个体对灾害的脆弱性皆不同，因此灾害研究必须更关注于灾害发生的机制，相关的政策与策略也必须建立在更小的社会与空间单元上。</p>
Vulnerability after a devastating hazard: An interpretation of land use and land cover change in central Taiwan since 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake. https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2006.02.013 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
<p> 自2004年底的南亚大海啸、美国遭受飓风侵袭以来，人类社会如何采取应对措施以降低灾害的冲击成为国际科学界的一个重要议题。台湾在几年前也遭遇巨大的地震灾害，1999年9月21日凌晨，震中发源于台湾中部、芮氏规模7.3级的巨大地震，造成全台湾2 000多人死亡，8 000多人受伤，除了造成直接的经济社会损失外，也造成山区土石松滑、地层松动与山崩，直接改变了地表的覆盖状况。在后续几年台风所带来的强风豪雨下，丰沛的降雨量使原本因地震而松滑的土石大量滑落，造成严重的土石流灾害，河床也因土石泥沙的堆积而被提升，形成严重的洪患。这些自然环境的变化不仅再次改变地表的覆盖，也使重建后的小区面临极大的灾害风险。此次冲击促使当地居民重新思考人地关系之意义，通过重建过程凝聚小区意识，发展有别于过去的土地利用形态。因此为检验当地居民对灾害的暴露程度、敏感性与适应能力，本研究采用近年来在国际环境灾害研究课题备受重视的脆弱性研究途径，并利用野外调查以及遥测与地理信息系统分析呈现地震后的土地覆盖变化。希望通过分析人与环境系统的变化，以及人类社群的社会内部固有特质，归纳出重要机制以发展降低脆弱性的策略。<br /> 研究结果显示，灾害是人与环境耦合系统(coupled system)共同形成的结果，非单一的独立事件，也不是不可避免的；且地方的脆弱性具有演化与多元化的特性，同一地方下不同族群与个体对灾害的脆弱性皆不同，因此灾害研究必须更关注于灾害发生的机制，相关的政策与策略也必须建立在更小的社会与空间单元上。</p>
|
| [15] |
社会脆弱性:灾害社会学研究的新范式 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4608-B.2012.04.003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
社会脆弱性是指社会群体、组织或国家暴露在灾害冲击下潜在的受灾因素、受伤害程度及应对能力的大小。它有三个主要讨论面向，即脆弱性是一种灾前既存的条件、是灾害调适与因应能力、是一个特定地点的灾害程度；有两个基本研究命题，“灾害风险不平等命题”与“社会分化命题”。而将社会脆弱性评估模型具体化为空间整合模型、灾害周期模型、微观与宏观模型及函数关系模型，目的在于能真正确认社会中最脆弱的群体和体现出预测的特质，真正了解灾害中不同群体应对灾害风险能力的差异，真正为防灾与减灾规划提供有针对性建议。然而，毋庸讳言，这一研究范式也存在着“技术决定论”、“结构式减灾”及难以量化等一些局限。
Social vulnerability: A new perspective for the study of sociology of hazards. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-4608-B.2012.04.003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
社会脆弱性是指社会群体、组织或国家暴露在灾害冲击下潜在的受灾因素、受伤害程度及应对能力的大小。它有三个主要讨论面向，即脆弱性是一种灾前既存的条件、是灾害调适与因应能力、是一个特定地点的灾害程度；有两个基本研究命题，“灾害风险不平等命题”与“社会分化命题”。而将社会脆弱性评估模型具体化为空间整合模型、灾害周期模型、微观与宏观模型及函数关系模型，目的在于能真正确认社会中最脆弱的群体和体现出预测的特质，真正了解灾害中不同群体应对灾害风险能力的差异，真正为防灾与减灾规划提供有针对性建议。然而，毋庸讳言，这一研究范式也存在着“技术决定论”、“结构式减灾”及难以量化等一些局限。
|
| [16] |
Social vulnerability to environmental hazards [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6237.8402002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Objective. County-level socioeconomic and demographic data were used to construct an index of social vulnerability to environmental hazards, called the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for the United States based on 1990 data. Methods. Using a factor analytic approach, 42 variables were reduced to 11 independent factors that accounted for about 76 percent of the variance. These factors were placed in an additive model to compute a summary score—the Social Vulnerability Index. Results. There are some distinct spatial patterns in the SoVI, with the most vulnerable counties clustered in metropolitan counties in the east, south Texas, and the Mississippi Delta region. Conclusion. Those factors that contribute to the overall score often are different for each county, underscoring the interactive nature of social vulnerability—some components increase vulnerability; others moderate the effects.
|
| [17] |
Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in the Yangtze River Delta, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0725-y URL 摘要
China is exposed to a wide range of natural hazards, and disaster losses have escalated over the past decade. Owing to the pressure from natural disasters, along with changes in climate, social conditions, and regional environment, assessment of social vulnerability (SV) to natural hazards has become increasingly urgent for risk management and sustainable development in China. This paper presents a new method for quantifying SV based on the projection pursuit cluster (PPC) model. A reference social vulnerability index (SVI) at the county level was created for the Yangtze River Delta area in China for 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2009. The result of social vulnerability assessment was validated using data of actual losses from natural disasters. The primary findings are as follows: (i) In the study area, the major factors that impact SVI are regional per capita GDP and per capita income. (ii) The study area was more vulnerable in 1995 than in later years. SV of the whole region had decreased over the study period. (iii) Most part of Shanghai and the southeast part of Jiangsu Province had been the least vulnerable within the region. From this least vulnerable zone to the periphery of the region, the situation deteriorated. The highest SVI values in all evaluated years were found in the northern, western, or southern tips of the Yangtze River Delta.
|
| [18] |
Social vulnerability assessment for Norway: A quantitative approach [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2010.550167 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The article presents a method for quantifying social vulnerability to natural hazards in Norwegian municipalities. In the analysis, a large number of variables that each measures a facet of a municipality's susceptibility to a potential hazard are used. Using factor analysis, the information in the variables is reduced to a smaller number of factors and socioeconomic and built environment vulnerability scores for each Norwegian municipality are calculated. The resulting scores in the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index and Built Environment Index are mapped for each municipality. The results show that there are pronounced regional differences: municipalities with high socioeconomic vulnerability cluster in the northern half of Norway and parts of the south-east. The least vulnerable region is south-western Norway. Built environment vulnerability is highest in densely populated areas. By indicating municipalities with a high level of vulnerability, the method presented in this article is a useful tool in identifying regions which are likely to face significant challenges in coping with a large-scale event. The results can be used in, for example, planning mitigation efforts against extreme weather events, which are likely to be more frequent and severe in the future due to climate change.
|
| [19] |
城市面临水灾的脆弱性分析——北京“7.21”暴雨致灾的综合认知 [J].Analysis on the fragileness of urban areas under flood-hazard: A comprehensive argument at the“7.21” flood in Beijing. |
| [20] |
Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs.
|
| [21] |
|
| [22] |
Safe place or ‘catastrophic society’? Perspectives on hazards and disasters in Canada [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0064.2000.tb00716.x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The essay introduces public risk and destructive events in Canada, their conceptual and policy implications. The discussion is developed in four main steps. First, some widely held, if contradictory, perceptions of public security are identified. A relatively high level of personal safety for most Canadians is attributed to large government and private investments. But these have not prevented recurring disasters, nor singular vulnerability for certain groups and parts of the country. Meanwhile, some novel dangers of modern living compromise the safety of all Canadians. The second section examines evidence of losses from a broad range of hazards, and related, risk-averting investments. The national geography of dangers is shown to have been transformed and reorganized by post-World War II developments. Losses, even from natural hazards, are identified with common, nationwide behaviours and infrastructure, especially motorised mobility and consumer products. A fourth section looks at some appropriate conceptual frameworks. Charles Perrow's idea of 'organizational society' is considered, and Ulrich Beck's of 'risk society', including his view that late modern societies shift towards a 'catastrophic' condition. In general, the Canadian scene and these ideas support a human ecological view of modernity, but challenge an agent-specific and extreme event approach that had prevailed in hazards geography. 'Manufactured' vulnerability is a neglected but decisive element. The social space of risks is shown to be recast around changing priorities for, and social justice in, public security and emerging crises of personal safety. Risk aversion turns upon questions of the acceptability of risks, acceptance for and by whom, and how it is achieved. For academic work, this suggests a reexamination of risk knowledge and its 'social construction'. La dissertation aborde le sujet des évènements destructifs et du risque public au Canada, leurs implications conceptuels et de principe. La discussion est développée en quatre étapes principales. Premièrement, certaines perceptions de la sécurité publique tenues par beaucoup, non sans être contradictoires, sont identifiées. Un niveau relativement élevé de sécurité personnelle pour la plupart des canadiens est attribuéà un gouvernement de grande taille et aux investissements privés mais ceux-ci n'ont pas empêché des désastres de se reproduire, ni une vulnérabilité singulière pour certains groupes et certains endroits du pays. Entretemps, de nouveaux dangers de la vie moderne compromettent la sécurité de tous les canadiens. La deuxième section examine la preuve d'une perte à partir d'une gamme étendue de risques et d'investissement risqués et apparentés. II est montré que la géographie nationale des dangers a été transformée et réorganisée par des développements de l'après seconde guerre mondiale. Les pertes, même provenant de risques naturels, sont identifiées avec des comportements et infrastructures en commun et dans tout le pays, spécialement la mobilité motorisée et les produits de consommation. Une quatrième section examine les supports de travail conceptuels appropriés. L'idée de Charles Perrow d'une 'société structurelle' est prise en considération, et celle d'Ulrich Beck d'une 'sociétéà risque' comprenant sa vue que les dernières sociétés modernes s'accélèrent vers une condition 'catastrophique'. En général, le monde canadien et ces idées soutiennent une vue humaine et écologique de la modernité, mais défie un agent spécifique et une approche extrême des évènements qui avait prévalu dans la géographie des risques. La vulnérabilité'fabriquée' est un élément négligé mais décisif. II est démontré que le r00le de l'espace de risques social est redistribué selon des priorités qui changent pour, et la justice sociale dans, la sécurité publique et les crises qui émergent dans la sécurité personnelle. L'aversion des risques révolve autour des questions d'acceptabilité des risques, risques acceptés pour et par qui, et la fa04on dont cela est accompli. En ce qui concerne un travail théorique, cela suggère une réexamination de la connaissance des risques et de sa 'construction sociale'.
|
| [23] |
Quantifying social vulnerability: A methodology for identifying those at risk to natural hazards [R]. |
| [24] |
A comprehensive assessment of urban vulnerability and its spatial differentiation in China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-016-1260-9 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Urban vulnerability refers to the coping capacity necessary to resist disturbances from various internal or external natural factors and human factors, such as available resources,ecological environmental systems, economic and social development, during an urban development process. A city that has an anti- disturbance capacity below a certain threshold level is considered vulnerable. The concept of urban vulnerability comprehensively reflects urban resource vulnerability, eco- environmental vulnerability, economic vulnerability, and social vulnerability. Research on the assessment and regulatory control of urban vulnerability is of great significance for both urbanization quality improvement and sustainable development in China. In this study, using systematic analyses combined with a comprehensive index assessment method, we selected 10 subindexes involving 36 specific parameters from four aspects(resources, eco- environmental systems, economics, and social development) to construct a comprehensive index system for the assessment of China's urban vulnerability. In addition, the standard values of measurements were established and used to evaluate overall urban vulnerability and its spatial differentiation among cities at the prefecture level and above in China. This study revealed that China's urban vulnerability demonstrates a "gradedifference" based differentiation and overall vulnerability is moderate. The differences in the extent of China's urban vulnerability were divided into five grades: low vulnerability, relatively low vulnerability, moderate vulnerability, relatively high vulnerability, and high vulnerability.Urban vulnerability has a remarkable spatial differentiation of both "gradient distribution" and "clustered distribution", as demonstrated by the facts that cities in eastern China are significantly less vulnerable than those in the central and western regions and the cities with low vulnerability are distributed in the form of agglomeration, which fits the urban agglomerations in China well. The extent of urban vulnerability corresponds to city size, and the bigger the city, the lower its vulnerability. Resource- based cities are more vulnerable than comprehensive cities, and cities with higher functional comprehensiveness have relatively low vulnerability. In addition, a city's economic growth rate does not reflect the extent of its urban vulnerability; in other words, high- speed economic growth does not necessarily indicate low urban vulnerability. The purpose of this study was to address how to scientifically assess overall urban vulnerability and how to effectively cope with and reduce urban vulnerability.This study provides scientific evidence to enrich our understanding of urban vulnerability and sustainable development and to solve problems such as resource exhaustion, eco-environmental disruption, the transformation of economic growth mechanisms, and a series of other social issues that arise during urbanization and industrialization.
|
| [25] |
Conceptualizing urban vulnerability to global climate and environmental change [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2010.12.016 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Research on urban vulnerability has grown considerably in the last several years but is still largely limited and characterized by constraints based on interdisciplinary differences in definition and scope. This review explores how urban vulnerability has been framed in recent climate change and risk research and examines the contributions and limitations each of these approaches can make to research and policy. The existence of different lineages of research on urban vulnerability offers opportunities for understanding the nature and the linkages between the key dimensions and determinants involved, and hope for a synthesis and convergence, yet some daunting challenges persist. There are discrepancies in the focus, definition of key terms, methods and policy implications of each of the knowledge areas. Research on urban vulnerability is faced with a tension between the need to represent differences within and across urban areas given by the context specific nature of the dimensions and factors involved, and the desire to identify determinants and attributes of adaptive capacity and resilience across urban areas. A set of concepts and tools that cut across knowledge areas is needed to improve the understanding of how urban vulnerability is characterized and determined by issues such as thresholds, tipping points, second and third order impacts, and responses.
|
| [26] |
社会脆弱性概念、分析框架与评价方法 [J].https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.11.008 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
社会脆弱性作为脆弱性的维度之一,是脆弱性与可持续性科学研究领域的新兴热点问题.在分析对国内外社会脆弱性研究文献的基础上,从概念内涵、分析框架与评价方法3 方面对社会脆弱性研究进行了评述.目前学者们对社会脆弱性概念有不同的理解,尚未形成统一的概念体系与内涵特征;系统性的社会脆弱性分析框架尚未形成,现有成果多是在脆弱性框架基础上的延伸和拓展,主要从政治经济学视角、社会—生态视角和综合视角开展研究;多元化的评价方法在社会脆弱性的应用研究中仍较少见,已有研究的评价指标体系尚不完善.未来,应进一步拓展社会脆弱性研究内容,促进多学科交叉融合;逐步统一社会脆弱性概念和分析框架,深化社会脆弱性的理论研究;加强社会脆弱性评价方法与指标体系的完善,促进多元化评价方法的应用;加强社会脆弱性减缓与调控对策研究,整合社会脆弱性与适应性框架,为提高社会适应能力与可持续发展提供科学依据.
The concept, analytical framework and assessment method of social vulnerability. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.11.008 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
社会脆弱性作为脆弱性的维度之一,是脆弱性与可持续性科学研究领域的新兴热点问题.在分析对国内外社会脆弱性研究文献的基础上,从概念内涵、分析框架与评价方法3 方面对社会脆弱性研究进行了评述.目前学者们对社会脆弱性概念有不同的理解,尚未形成统一的概念体系与内涵特征;系统性的社会脆弱性分析框架尚未形成,现有成果多是在脆弱性框架基础上的延伸和拓展,主要从政治经济学视角、社会—生态视角和综合视角开展研究;多元化的评价方法在社会脆弱性的应用研究中仍较少见,已有研究的评价指标体系尚不完善.未来,应进一步拓展社会脆弱性研究内容,促进多学科交叉融合;逐步统一社会脆弱性概念和分析框架,深化社会脆弱性的理论研究;加强社会脆弱性评价方法与指标体系的完善,促进多元化评价方法的应用;加强社会脆弱性减缓与调控对策研究,整合社会脆弱性与适应性框架,为提高社会适应能力与可持续发展提供科学依据.
|
| [27] |
Methodology for the assessment and classification of regional vulnerability to natural hazards in China: The application of a DEA model [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0348-5 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper presents a new method for quantifying vulnerability to natural hazards in China. As an important area of vulnerability research, quantitative assessment of vulnerability has raised much focus in academia. Presently, scholars have proposed a variety of methods for quantitative assessment, which usually create an index of overall vulnerability from a suite of indicators, based on the understanding of the cause or mechanism of vulnerability. However, due to the complex nature of vulnerability, this approach caused some arguments on the indicator selection and the weight set for subindices. A data envelopment analysis鈥揵ased model for the assessment of the regional vulnerability to natural disasters is presented here to improve upon the traditional methods, and a new approach for the classification of vulnerability is proposed. The vulnerability to natural hazards in China mainland is illustrated as a case study. The result shows that the overall level of vulnerability to natural hazards in mainland China is high. The geographic pattern shows that vulnerability is highest in western China, followed by diminishing vulnerability in central China, and lowest vulnerability levels in eastern China. There is a negative correlation between the level of vulnerability and the level of regional economic development.
|
| [28] |
Erosion hazard vulnerability of US coastal counties [J].https://doi.org/10.2112/04-0172.1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This article examines the vulnerability of US coastal counties to erosion by combining a socioeconomic vulnerability index with the US Geological Survey's physically based coastal vulnerability index. The end product is a county-based index of overall coastal place vulnerability. The results indicate that place vulnerability along the coast is highly differentiated and influenced by a range of social, economic, and physical indicators. Regionally, Gulf Coast vulner17ability is more of a product of social characteristics rather than physical attributes. The opposite is true of Pacific and Atlantic coastal counties, where physical characteristics are more influential in determining erosion-hazard vulner17ability. It is clear that overall vulnerability of coastal counties cannot be determined without the union of social, economic, built-environment, and physical characteristics. Yet the methods for combining these components are not widely used at present by coastal scientists and policy makers, rendering hazards assessments incomplete and miti17gation plans untenable for many places.
|
| [29] |
Connecting people and place: A new framework for reducing urban vulnerability to extreme heat [J].https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014021 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Climate change is predicted to increase the intensity and negative impacts of urban heat events, prompting the need to develop preparedness and adaptation strategies that reduce societal vulnerability to extreme heat. Analysis of societal vulnerability to extreme heat events requires an interdisciplinary approach that includes information about weather and climate, the natural and built environment, social processes and characteristics, interactions with stakeholders, and an assessment of community vulnerability at a local level. In this letter, we explore the relationships between people and places, in the context of urban heat stress, and present a new research framework for a multi-faceted, top-down and bottom-up analysis of local-level vulnerability to extreme heat. This framework aims to better represent societal vulnerability through the integration of quantitative and qualitative data that go beyond aggregate demographic information. We discuss how different elements of the framework help to focus attention and resources on more targeted health interventions, heat hazard mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.
|
| [30] |
灾害链灾情累积放大研究方法进展 [J].https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.09.007 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
近年来全球范围内频发的重大自然灾害事件,表明一种灾害引发一系列次生灾害的灾害链现象使得灾情通过累积放大效应而大大超过单一灾种灾情,深入研究灾害链灾情累积放大过程是有效防范巨灾风险的前提.首先,本文梳理了国内外研究中不同视角下对灾害链现象的理解,认为灾害链一般性概念中应当包含孕灾环境、致灾因子链、承灾体以及它们在时间和空间上复杂相互作用关系,只有从地理学的综合性角度出发,才能正确而完整的理解灾害链过程灾情累积放大机制.其次,按研究思路的差异,综述了当前研究灾害链灾情累积放大过程的5 类方法,包括经验地学统计方法、概率模型、复杂网络模型、灾害模拟以及多学科理论方法.从描述灾害链要素在时间和空间上复合作用的角度出发,分别讨论了它们在刻画灾害链灾情放大过程中的优势与不足.选取了影响较大、灾害引发关系典型的地震灾害链与台风灾害链,从灾种维度综述上述几种方法在实际应用中的概况及进展.最后,提出综合多种方法发展与完善灾害链灾情累积放大效应过程的动态模拟是灾害链的研究趋势,其中关键在于模拟灾害链系统各要素的时间与空间上的耦合,研究思路从“静态—描述—解释”向“动态—过程—模拟”的转变是理解灾害链、灾害系统复杂性的重要途径.
Review on research methods of disaster loss accumulation and amplification of disaster chains. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.09.007 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
近年来全球范围内频发的重大自然灾害事件,表明一种灾害引发一系列次生灾害的灾害链现象使得灾情通过累积放大效应而大大超过单一灾种灾情,深入研究灾害链灾情累积放大过程是有效防范巨灾风险的前提.首先,本文梳理了国内外研究中不同视角下对灾害链现象的理解,认为灾害链一般性概念中应当包含孕灾环境、致灾因子链、承灾体以及它们在时间和空间上复杂相互作用关系,只有从地理学的综合性角度出发,才能正确而完整的理解灾害链过程灾情累积放大机制.其次,按研究思路的差异,综述了当前研究灾害链灾情累积放大过程的5 类方法,包括经验地学统计方法、概率模型、复杂网络模型、灾害模拟以及多学科理论方法.从描述灾害链要素在时间和空间上复合作用的角度出发,分别讨论了它们在刻画灾害链灾情放大过程中的优势与不足.选取了影响较大、灾害引发关系典型的地震灾害链与台风灾害链,从灾种维度综述上述几种方法在实际应用中的概况及进展.最后,提出综合多种方法发展与完善灾害链灾情累积放大效应过程的动态模拟是灾害链的研究趋势,其中关键在于模拟灾害链系统各要素的时间与空间上的耦合,研究思路从“静态—描述—解释”向“动态—过程—模拟”的转变是理解灾害链、灾害系统复杂性的重要途径.
|
| [31] |
基于复杂网络的台风灾害演化系统风险分析与控制研究 [J].Risk analysis and control for the evolution disaster system of typhoon based on complex network [J]. |
| [32] |
At risk: Natural hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters (Second edition) [M]. |
| [33] |
A methodological approach for the definition of multi-risk maps at regional level: First application [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870903050269 URL 摘要
Technological and natural disasters occurred in Europe during last decades showed an increased vulnerability of our society to different risks. Authorities and civil protection need instruments which allow having a better understanding of the variety of risks over a territory and help them in managing the resources and planning the emergency. However, many difficulties arise in comparing hazards, vulnerabilities and risks among them. The existing risk mapping in European countries often allows a simplified comparison of risks by means of potential damages but does not permit any qualitative assessment of multi‐risk situations. The aim of this project carried out for the Piedmont Region (Italy) is the development of a decision support system based on a multi‐risk approach which can overcome difficulties in the overall risk assessment over a territory. To define multi‐risk maps, a multi‐risk perspective and stakeholder's perceptions were integrated to a classical risk assessment frame. The specific purpose of this work is describing the methodological framework built up at this stage of the project and discussing the first results.
|
| [34] |
An overview to flood vulnerability assessment methods [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-016-0051-x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Vulnerability is the main construct in flood risk management. One of the most significant aims of flood vulnerability assessment is to make a clear association between the theoretical conceptions of flood vulnerability and the daily administrative process. Variety of approaches has been introduced to assess vulnerability therefore selection of more appropriate methodology is vital for authorities. The more accepted assessing methods can be categorized in four groups: curve method, disaster loos data method, computer modeling methods and indicator based methods. The purpose of this study is to review these methods and compare their benefits and drawbacks. The article concluded that the indicator-based approach gives more precise vision of overall flood vulnerability in each area rather than other approaches.
|
| [35] |
Social vulnerability for public safety: A case study of Beijing, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-013-5835-x URL [本文引用: 1] |
| [36] |
Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards [J].https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0710375105 URL PMID: 18268336 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
During the past four decades (1960-2000), the United States experienced major transformations in population size, development patterns, economic conditions, and social characteristics. These social, economic, and built-environment changes altered the American hazardscape in profound ways, with more people living in high-hazard areas than ever before. To improve emergency management, it is important to recognize the variability in the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop place-based emergency plans accordingly. The concept of social vulnerability identifies sensitive populations that may be less likely to respond to, cope with, and recover from a natural disaster. Social vulnerability is complex and dynamic, changing over space and through time. This paper presents empirical evidence on the spatial and temporal patterns in social vulnerability in the United States from 1960 to the present. Using counties as our study unit, we found that those components that consistently increased social vulnerability for all time periods were density (urban), race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. The spatial patterning of social vulnerability, although initially concentrated in certain geographic regions, has become more dispersed over time. The national trend shows a steady reduction in social vulnerability, but there is considerable regional variability, with many counties increasing in social vulnerability during the past five decades.
|
| [37] |
Urban social vulnerability assessment with physical proxies and spatial metrics derived from air- and spaceborne imagery and GIS data [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9264-0 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Risk management in urban planning is of increasing importance to mitigate the growing amount of damage and the increasing number of casualties caused by natural disasters. Risk assessment to support management requires knowledge about present and future hazards, elements at risk and different types of vulnerability. This article deals with the assessment of social vulnerability (SV). In the past this has frequently been neglected due to lack of data and assessment difficulties. Existing approaches for SV assessment, primarily based on community-based methods or on census data, have limited efficiency and transferability. In this article a new method based on contextual analysis of image and GIS data is presented. An approach based on proxy variables that were derived from high-resolution optical and laser scanning data was applied, in combination with elevation information and existing hazard data. Object-oriented image analysis was applied for the definition and estimation of those variables, focusing on SV indicators with physical characteristics. A reference Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) was created from census data available for the study area on a neighbourhood level and tested for parts of Tegucigalpa, Honduras. For the evaluation of the proxy-variables, a stepwise regression model to select the best explanatory variables for changes in the SVI was applied. Eight out of 47 variables explained almost 60% of the variance, whereby the slope position and the proportion of built-up area in a neighbourhood were found to be the most valuable proxies. This work shows that contextual segmentation-based analysis of geospatial data can substantially aid in SV assessment and, when combined with field-based information, leads to optimization in terms of assessment frequency and cost.
|
| [38] |
Uncertainty analysis for a social vulnerability index [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2012.700616 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Indexes have gained favor over the past decade as a tool to measure social vulnerability to hazards. Numerous index designs have been put forward, yet we still know very little about their reliability. This research investigates the methods of social vulnerability index construction, examining decisions related to indicator selection, scale of analysis, measurement error, data transformation, normalization, and weighting. Each of these stages is imbued with uncertainty due to choices made by the index developer. The study applies Monte Carlobased uncertainty analysis to assess and visualize uncertainty for a hierarchical social vulnerability index. Confidence limits are computed for the index rankings, leading to a finding of a high magnitude of uncertainty. The performance of the index compared to alternative configurations is strong in some places but statistically biased in about a third of the census tracts. The variability of index rankings is also assessed, indicating that index precision decreases with increasing vulnerability. Uncertainty analysis provides a useful, yet largely unapplied stage of index production that highlights places where the model is most reliable. If applied to the creation of social vulnerability indexes, output metrics can be produced with a greater degree of precision, transparency, and credibility.
|
| [39] |
Assessing the vulnerability of social-environmental system from the perspective of hazard, sensitivity, and resilience: A case study of Beijing, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-009-0440-7 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Despite a recent increase in the number of vulnerability analyses there has been relatively little discussion of vulnerability assessment of social–environment system, especially when they face multiple hazards. In this study, we developed an applicable and convenient method to assess vulnerability of social–environment system at a regional scale. Vulnerability is quantified by measuring three critical elements (i.e. hazards, sensitivity, and resilience) through some key variables. The results showed that vulnerability is high in Miaofeng Mountain in Mengtougou District, the hills of Pinggu County and the riparian zones of the lower courses of the Beiyun and Yongding Rivers; but low in the city of Beijing and the southwestern part of the Fangshan District. Areas of very high, high, medium, and low-vulnerability account for 6.19, 25.48, 33.06, and 35.27% of the total area, respectively. The degree of vulnerability decreases in a northwest direction in mountainous areas and declines from watercourses to riparian zones along a lateral direction in the plain. Some adaptive strategies are also proposed.
|
| [40] |
How many principles of urban ecology are there? [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-017-0492-0 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The nature of urban ecology theory is controversial. Issues include whether urban theory is distinct, whether it has principles, and whether those principles differ from those for non-urban systems. R
|
| [41] |
景观生态学的学科前沿与发展战略 [J].https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1000-0933.2003.08.020 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
根据美国景观生态学 2 0 0 1年年会关于景观生态学的关键议题和研究领域特别专题的讨论 ,综合 1 6位国际知名专家所发表的关于深化理论、整合协调和方法改进等方面的意见 ,深入论述了景观生态学的 6项关键议题和 1 0个优先研究领域。包括通过景观镶嵌体的生态流 ,土地利用和土地覆被变化的过程、机制 ,非线性动态和景观复杂性 ,尺度转换方法论的发展 ,景观指标与生态过程 ,人类活动与景观生态 ,景观格局的优化 ,景观保育与可持续性 ,资料获取与准确性评价。并对构建中国景观生态学的理论框架提出了初步的想法 ,即发展以格局——过程关系为中心的生态空间理论 ,以人类活动有序化为中心的景观生态建设理论 ,以发挥景观多重价值为中心的景观规划理论。
Forefronts and future strategies of landscape ecology. https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1000-0933.2003.08.020 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
根据美国景观生态学 2 0 0 1年年会关于景观生态学的关键议题和研究领域特别专题的讨论 ,综合 1 6位国际知名专家所发表的关于深化理论、整合协调和方法改进等方面的意见 ,深入论述了景观生态学的 6项关键议题和 1 0个优先研究领域。包括通过景观镶嵌体的生态流 ,土地利用和土地覆被变化的过程、机制 ,非线性动态和景观复杂性 ,尺度转换方法论的发展 ,景观指标与生态过程 ,人类活动与景观生态 ,景观格局的优化 ,景观保育与可持续性 ,资料获取与准确性评价。并对构建中国景观生态学的理论框架提出了初步的想法 ,即发展以格局——过程关系为中心的生态空间理论 ,以人类活动有序化为中心的景观生态建设理论 ,以发挥景观多重价值为中心的景观规划理论。
|
| [42] |
城市脆弱性研究评述与展望 [J].https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.05.007 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
当前,脆弱性为可持续性科学研究的热点问题,城市脆弱性是努力实现城市可持续发展急需开展的重要研究内容.基于国内外城市脆弱性研究文献资料的回顾,梳理了城市脆弱性概念、研究分类、分析框架、动力机制和评价方法.目前对城市脆弱性尚未形成统一的概念框架,缺乏完善的评价指标体系,对动力机制与调控的研究不足,缺少对城市耦合系统脆弱性的研究.未来,应在现有城市脆弱性研究基础上,建立综合、可行的评价指标体系,构建综合评价模型,并注重典型区域的城市脆弱性评价,为城市可持续发展提供科学依据.
Progress and prospect of urban vulnerability. https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.05.007 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
当前,脆弱性为可持续性科学研究的热点问题,城市脆弱性是努力实现城市可持续发展急需开展的重要研究内容.基于国内外城市脆弱性研究文献资料的回顾,梳理了城市脆弱性概念、研究分类、分析框架、动力机制和评价方法.目前对城市脆弱性尚未形成统一的概念框架,缺乏完善的评价指标体系,对动力机制与调控的研究不足,缺少对城市耦合系统脆弱性的研究.未来,应在现有城市脆弱性研究基础上,建立综合、可行的评价指标体系,构建综合评价模型,并注重典型区域的城市脆弱性评价,为城市可持续发展提供科学依据.
|
| [43] |
Spectroscopy of urban vulnerability [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2012.702485 URL [本文引用: 1] |
| [44] |
Vulnerability to environmental hazards [J].https://doi.org/10.1177/030913259602000407 URL [本文引用: 1] |
| [45] |
Measuring and mapping the flood vulnerability based on land-use patterns: A case study of Beijing, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2375-0 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract In recently years, flood disasters have produced immense economical and ecological damages in worldwide, particularly in the developing cities. The increasing damages contribute to “vulnerability” that illustrates which areas are vulnerable to what and why. Therefore, researching vulnerability is an essential and invaluable tool for helping the policy makers to identify the vulnerable people and hot-spots in advance, and to design and implement effective preparedness strategies. In this paper, using the example of Beijing, we propose a quantitative model for measuring flood vulnerability based on land-use patterns which is one of the key variables affected flood vulnerability. By combining the flood hazard characteristic “inundation depth”, a series of flood vulnerability maps demonstrate differential flood vulnerability of flood-prone areas at regional level with the approach of remote sensing and GIS techniques. These maps detect and show the distribution characteristics of vulnerable hot-spots and reveal challenges that the public faced when living in the flood-prone areas.
|
| [46] |
Assessment of provincial social vulnerability to natural disasters in China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-1003-5 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step to understand natural hazard risks and to enhance effective response capabilities. Although significant achievements have been made in social vulnerability researches, little is know about the comprehensive profile of regional social vulnerability in China. In this study, the social vulnerability to natural hazards was firstly divided into socioeconomic and built environmental vulnerability. Then, using factor analysis, we identified the dominant factors that influence the provincial social vulnerability in China to natural hazards based on the socioeconomic and built environmental variables in 2000 and 2010 and explored the spatial patterns of social vulnerability. The results indicated that the provincial social vulnerability in China showed significant regional differences. The social vulnerability in the southeastern and eastern regions of China was greater than its northern and central parts over the past decade. Economic status, rural (proportion of agricultural population and percentage of workers employed in primary industries), urbanization, and age structure (children) were the dominant driving forces of variations in provincial socioeconomic vulnerability in two studied years, while lifelines and housing age could explain most of changes in built environmental vulnerability in 2000 and 2010. There were no statistically significant correlations between social vulnerability and disaster losses ( p >0.05), indicating the impact of disasters was also related to the intensity of hazards and exposure. Disaster relief funds allocated to each province of China depended more on its disaster severity than the regional integrated social vulnerability over the past decade. These findings would provide a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China.
|
| [47] |
城市经济脆弱性评价研究——以北京海淀区为例 [J].Assessing the economic vulnerability to disasters of cities: A case study of Haidian district in Beijing. |
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
