郭付友, 佟连军, 李平, 张慧敏, 张春丽.
Guo Fuyou, Tong Lianjun, Li Ping, Zhang Huimin, Zhang Chunli.
Environmental Adaptability of Industrial System in the Songhua River Basin of Jilin Province from the Perspective of Efficiency Evolution[J].
Scientia Geographica Sinica,
Environmental Adaptability of Industrial System in the Songhua River Basin of Jilin Province from the Perspective of Efficiency Evolution
Guo Fuyou1,, Tong Lianjun2,, Li Ping2,3, Zhang Huimin2, Zhang Chunli2
1. College of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276800, Shandong, China2. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, Jilin, China3. Academy of Jilin Social Science, Changchun 130033, Jilin, China
National Natural Science Fundation of China (41471110,41771138,41801105), Natural Science Foundation of Shandong (ZR2018BD002), Social Science Planning Research Project of Shandong (18DJJJ14);
Based on the efficiency evolution perspective and the adaptive analysis paradigm, the article adopted a VRS model with input oriented and production capacity variable to analyze the environmental adaptive evolution characteristics and the influencing factors of industrial system in the Songhua River Basin of Jilin Province. The results indicate that: 1) From status pattern analysis, the study area was still in the expansion and growth stage, and there were still many counties have not yet reached the optimal scale stage, so agglomeration was still the mainstream development mode of industry and economic in the future; 2) From temporal evolution analysis, the development of industrial ecology in the Songhua River Basin of Jilin Province was slow, and the industrial scale expansion was the key to the promotion of efficiency. The role of science and technology was not significant; 3) From spatial differentiation analysis, the main cities with high comprehensive efficiency and scale efficiency were constantly gathering in the upstream and midstream areas, while the main cities with pure technical efficiency were distributed in the downstream area, therefore, the improvement of comprehensive efficiency was mainly due to the increase of scale efficiency rather than pure technical efficiency; 4) The factors influencing the environmental adaptability of industrial system of the Songhua River Basin in Jilin Province included location conditions, path dependence effects, economic development levels and scientific technology.
industry system;adaptability;path dependence;the Songhua River;Jilin Province;
Ecological appraisal of industrial structure and design models of circle economy are two important ways to implement regional sustainable development. Based on the judgment of the phases of industrialization and the characteristics of industrial structure of Shandong Province, according to the relationship among economic benefit, environmental capacity and resources support, the paper set up the model of ecological appraisal of industrial structure. And by analyzing the problems of the existing industrial structure, the paper put forward new ways to adjust it and the corresponding countermeasures under the thoughtfulness of circle economy. It has important guidance functions to push the sustainable development of Shandong Province.
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We present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically defined climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability are used to identify key vulnerability indicators. We find that 11 key indicators exhibit a strong relationship with decadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgement data, collected through a focus group exercise. The data are used to provide a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacityne element of vulnerabilitys associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy.
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This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs.
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The UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies provides an elaboration of the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations. This paper presents the concepts and ideas that underpin the chapter Coastal Zones of the UNEP Handbook. Particular emphasis is given to the conceptual framework, which is centered around the concept of vulnerability. Further, the IPCC Common Methodology for Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise is evaluated and compared with the Technical Guidelines. One notable difference between the 2 approaches concerns the use of scenarios. In the Common Methodology scenarios are prescribed, while the Technical Guidelines allow users maximum freedom in selecting and developing scenarios. Finally, the paper discusses 3 levels of increasingly complex assessment in coastal zones. As more experience is acquired, coastal databases improve and better analytical tools and techniques are developed, more comprehensive and integrated assessments will become feasible.
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Neither the costs nor the benefits of adaptation to climate change have been systematically studied so far. This paper discusses the extent to which the vast body of literature on climate change impacts can provide insights into the scope and likely cost of adaptation. The ways in which the impacts literature deals with adaptation can be grouped into four categories: no adaptation, arbitrary adaptation, observed adaptation (analogues), and modeled adaptation (optimization). All four cases are characterized by the simple assumptions made about the mechanisms of adaptation. No or only scant attention is paid to the process of adapting to a new climate. Adaptation analysis has to acknowledge that people will be neither dumb nor brilliant at adapting. They are likely to see the need for change, but may be constrained in their ability to adapt or in their comprehension of the permanence and direction of change.
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Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society1, 2. The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses3 have summarized climate change impacts and adaptive potential as a function of temperature, but have not examined uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the quantitative effectiveness of adaptation. Here we develop a new data set of more than 1,700 published simulations to evaluate yield impacts of climate change and adaptation. Without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 掳C of local warming. Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7鈥15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Yield losses are greater in magnitude for the second half of the century than for the first. Consensus on yield decreases in the second half of the century is stronger in tropical than temperate regions, yet even moderate warming may reduce temperate crop yields in many locations. Although less is known about interannual variability than mean yields, the available data indicate that increases in yield variability are likely.
Misra AK.Climate change impact, mitigation and adaptation strategies for agricultural and water resources, in Ganga Plain (India)[J]. , 2013, 18(5): 673-689.
Agriculture consumes more than two-thirds of global fresh water out of which 90 % is used by developing countries. Freshwater consumption worldwide is expected to rise another 25 %by 2030 due to increase in population from 6.6 billion currently to about 8 billion by 2030 and over 9 billion by 2050. Worldwide climate change and variability are affecting water resources and agricultural production and in India Ganga Plain region is one of them. Hydroclimatic changes are very prominent in all the regions of Ganga Plain. Climate change and variability impacts are further drying the semi-arid areas and may cause serious problem of water and food scarcity for about 250 million people of the area. About 80 million ha out of total 141 million ha net cultivated area of India is rainfed, which contributes approximately 44 % of total food production has been severely affected by climate change. Further changing climatic conditions are causing prominent hydrological variations like change in drainage density, river morphology (tectonic control) & geometry, water quality and precipitation. Majority of the river channels seen today in the Ganga Plain has migrated from their historic positions. Large scale changes in land use and land cover pattern, cropping pattern, drainage pattern and over exploitation of water resources are modifying the hydrological cycle in Ganga basin. The frequency of floods and drought and its intensity has increased manifold. Ganga Plain rivers has changed their course with time and the regional hydrological conditions shows full control over the rates and processes by which environments geomorphically evolve. Approximately 47 % of total irrigated area of the country is located in Ganga Plain, which is severely affected by changing climatic conditions. In long run climate change will affect the quantity and quality of the crops and the crop yield is going to be down. This will increase the already high food inflation in the country. The warmer atmospheric temperatures and drought conditions will increase soil salinization, desertification and drying-up of aquifer, while flooding conditions will escalate soil erosion, soil degradation and sedimentation. The aim of this study is to understand the impact of different hydrological changes due to climatic conditions and come up with easily and economically feasible solutions effective in addressing the problem of water and food scarcity in future.
Banerjee RR.Farmers’ perception of climate change, impact and adaptation strategies: A case study of four villages in the semi-arid regions of India[J]. , 2015, 75(3): 2829-2845.
Climate change poses a major threat to the semi-arid tropics, which is characterized by scanty and uncertain rainfall, infertile soils, poor infrastructure, extreme poverty and rapid population growth. These conditions present serious environmental, economic and social impacts on the agricultural community. In recent years, adaptation to climate change has become a major concern to farmers, researchers and policy makers alike. To enhance policy towards tackling the challenges that climate change poses to farmers, it is important to have knowledge on their perceptions of climate change, potential adaptation measures and factors affecting adaptation. In addition, the extent to which farmers perceptions on climate change coincide with actual climatic data needs to be further examined. This paper, using a qualitative approach, looks into the perceived changes in rainfall and temperature, their impacts and adaptations strategies taken up by farmers in four villages in the states of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. It also analyses the accuracy of these perceptions based on actual available climatic data. The paper also looks into the determinants of adaptive capacity by examining a case of improved water management as an adaptation mechanism.
[GuoFuyou, TongLianjun, Wei Qiang et al. Spatio-temporal difference and influencing factors of environmental adaptability assessment of industrial system in the Songhua River Basin of Jilin Province. , 2016, 71(3): 459-470.]
[LiBo, ShiZhaoyuan, Han Zenglin et al. Spatio-temporal difference and influencing factors of environmental adaptability measurement of human-sea economic system in Bohai Rim region. , 2018, 73(6):1121-1132.]
The paper analyzed the spatial-temporal relationship between revolt and drought-flood, and influence of factors such as population, land tax and policy, in Shandong Province during the middle and late Qing Dynasty (1800-1911AD), in order to understand the regional adaptation to climate change. The results indicated that there was good spatial-temporal relationship between revolt and drought-flood. During 1800 to 1850, the relationship was the best, when climate change was the main factor that arose the revolt as an extreme and drastic response by peasants to the intolerable climate change in feudal society. During the 1850s-1870s, disasters occurred frequently, revolt broke out continually, and society contradiction became intensified. After then, the corresponding relationship between revolt and drought was not as better as before. It may be contributed to that Qing government's policy that abolished the ban of migration to Northeast China in 1861AD, which provided a new way to respond to the climate change for the people in Shandong Province and weakened the impact of climate change on revolt.
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Using the shift-share deviation method we analyze interannual variations of the main pollutants in assess type, competitiveness, and structure characteristics. The results could be summarized as follows:1)emissions changed slightly and annual average growth rate was 0.4%;2)the pollution intensity decreased; and 3)in the four sample cities the main pollutants were SO and the pollutant structures were different. The largest influence was from the agricultural products' processing industry and papermaking industry.
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[GuoFuyou, TongLianjun, Wei Qiang et al. Spatial-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of industrial system eco-efficiency in the Songhua River Basin of Jilin province. , 2016, 35(8):1483-1494.]