SO₂是中国主要污染物总量控制指标之一。分析SO₂排放变化和影响因素对今后SO₂及其他污染物减排具有借鉴意义。在分析近10 a来尤其是"十一五"期间中国SO₂减排趋势的基础上,通过构建对数平均权重模型和减排潜力模型分析SO₂减排的影响因素和减排潜力,并对"十二五"SO₂排放进行情景分析。结果表明:SO₂排放量呈先上升后下降的变化趋势,"十一五"减排目标顺利实现;2005~2009年,中国工业SO₂排放量平均每年减少65×10⁴ t,其中,经济增长平均每年促进SO₂排放量增长315×10⁴ t,技术进步则平均每年使SO₂排放量减少344×10⁴ t,行业结构因素平均每年减少SO₂排放量36×10⁴ t;中国SO₂排放强度存在着绝对趋同和条件趋同,在条件趋同下,2009年中国各地区SO₂减排空间为738×10⁴ t,相当于当年SO₂排放量的1/3;"十二五"期间,若工业SO₂减排目标为8%~10%,则其去除率在2015年末需达到74%~80%,减排形势将依然严峻。

SO₂ is one of total quality control of pollutions. It provides the theory and realistic reference meaning for pollutions reduction to investigate the changing trend and influential factors of SO₂. The SO₂ emission data are from China Environment Statistical Yearbook and the emission trend and reduction trend of SO₂ are showed firstly in the paper. Then, Logarithmic mean weight divisia method model and reduction model are applied to analyzing the influential factors effects and SO₂ reduction. The main results could be summarized as follows: 1) The industrial emission of SO₂ kept rising from 2000 to 2006 and descended in recent four years. Changes in the three regions of China were similar to national trend. However, the proportion of western region in whole emission increased in the past ten years. 2) The SO₂ reduction goal in "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" had been achieved. The industrial SO₂ made a greater contribution for reduction. Reduction volume in east region was the most. From the view of technique, it was the main method to increase SO₂ removal rate. 3) The average growth of industrial SO₂ was-65?10⁴ t. The scale of economic development, the industry structure and emission intensity had different contributions to the change, which were 315?10⁴ t,-344?10⁴ t,-36?10⁴ t,respectively. 4) Conditional convergence and absolute convergence obviously exit for the SO₂ emission intensity among provinces in China. The SO₂ reduction potential of different regions in conditional convergence would be 738?10⁴ t (equivalent to 1/3 of SO₂ emission in 2009). 5) If the reduction goal was 8%-10%, the industrial SO₂ removal rate must reach 74%-80%. The reduction situation would be severe. It was of vital importance in SO₂ reduction to promote the change in the pattern of economic growth.