荒漠绿洲PRED系统是一个相当脆弱的系统,自然灾害频繁、水分失衡导致的生态风险大。在分析其特征的基础上,建立了衡量可持续发展的指标体系并运用层次分析法得出了这些因子对绿洲PRED系统可持续发展的权值,影响最大的前三位因子是: 人均水资源量、绿洲化面积、人口素质,其权值分别为0.124、0.077、0.062。计算了河西走廊20个县(市、区)的SDI,排在最前面的依次是:肃北蒙古族自治县、嘉峪关市和玉门市、金川区,其SDI分别为0.437、0.406、0.405;排在最后面的依次是:古浪县、民勤县、天祝藏族自治县,其SDI分别为0.150、0.213、 0.217。分析了这种格局产生的原因并提出了相应对策。
The oasis Population, Resource, Environment and Development (PRED) system has the same character as the other regional PRED system, it is a nonlinear complicated huge system, also it is distinctive characteristic by big expanding spatiality, high frequency of natural disaster, and rich in illumination and heat quantity resources , and so on. But it is a very fragility ecosystem. By using the method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP method), the front 3 factors among 25 factors for the sustainable development of oasis PRED system are per capita water resources(weighting value 0.124), area of dedesertification(0.077), education degree of population(0.062). The comprehensive states and potential of society, economy, population, resources and environment of 20 counties(or city, district) in Hexi corridor were calculated and analyzed by the sustainable development index, and expressed by a map visually, the spatial distribution characteristics are described according to the sustainable development index (SDI) and the map. The front 4 counties were Mongolian Autonomous County of Subei (SDI=0.437), Jiayuguan City and Yumen City (SDI=0.406), Jinchuan District (SDI=0.405). Sustainable using of water resource is the basis for the social and economic sustainable development. Per capita water resources quantity of Mongolian Autonomous County of Subei is maximum in 20 counties. At the back 3 counties were Gulang County (SDI=0.150), Minqin County (SDI=0.213), Tibetan Autonomous County of Tianzhu (SDI=0.217). For the sustainable development of oasis, the optimum ratio among agriculture, industry, and the third estate (service trades, tourist trade, information etc.) is very importance, the causes are analyzed and some answers to the question are given.
[1] 毛汉英. 山东省跨世纪可持续发展的综合调控研究[J].地理学报,1998,53(5):413~427.
[2] 廖志杰,刘岳. 中国区域可持续发展水平及其空间分布特征[J]. 地理学报,2000,55(2):139~150.
[3] United Nations. ESCAP Asian Population Studies Series No.1-4. Select Papers of the Fourth Asian and Pacific Population Conference. Bali: Indonesia, 1992. 19-27.
[4] 世界银行. 1992年世界发展报告. 北京:中国财经经济出版社,1992.
[5] 庞丽华. 我国人口问题与可持续发展[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,1997,7(3):71~75.
[6] 申曙光,徐立幼. 从现代工业文明到生态文明[J]. 大自然探索,1995,14(1):31~39.
[7] 潘家华. 持续发展途径的经济学分析[M]. 北京:中国人民大学出版社,1997.
[8] 牛文元. 可持续发展理论的系统解析[M]. 武汉:湖北科技出版社,1998.
[9] 毛汉英. 山东省可持续发展指标体系初步研究[J].地理研究,1996,15(4):16~23.
[10] 秦耀辰,徐铭杰. 区域可持续发展的指标研究[J].地理学报,1998,53(2):149~154.
[11] 叶文虎,仝川. 联合国可持续发展指标体系述评[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,1997,7(3):83~87.
[12] 王海燕. 论世界银行衡量可持续发展的最新指标体系[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,1996,6(1):39~43.
[13] 苏培玺,施来成. 禹城市可持续发展指标体系及其量化研究[J]. 地理科学进展,1997,16(增刊):78~86.
[14] UNDP. Human Development Report. Oxford: Oxford University Press,1990.
[15] 甘肃年鉴编委会(编). 甘肃年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1998.
[16] 李福兴,姚建华(主编). 河西走廊经济发展与环境整治的综合研究[M]. 北京:中国环境科学出版社,1998.17~21.
[17] 王华飞,胡慧萍,金和荣,等. 中国西北地市县概况[M]. 兰州:甘肃人民出版社,1992.
[18] 方创琳. 荒漠绿洲生态系统的运行机制及退化的监控研究[J].生态学杂志,1994,13(5):50~55.
[19] 高华君. 我国绿洲的分布和类型[J]. 干旱区地理,1987,10(4):23~28.
[20] 贾宝全. 绿洲景观若干理论问题的探讨[J]. 干旱区地理,1996,19(3):58~65.
[21] 刘新民,王振先,唐宗泽,等. 荒漠绿洲边缘沙漠化土地整治[J]. 干旱区资源与环境,1987: 1(1),98~105.
[22] 申元村. 绿洲发展面临的挑战、目标及21世纪发展研究展望[J]. 干旱区资源与环境,2000,14(1): 1~11.
[23] 钱颂迪(主编). 运筹学(修订版)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1990.461~466.
