张延吉
, 秦波
Zhang Yanji, Qin Bo
中图分类号: TU984
文献标识码: A
文章编号: 1000-0690(2017)09-1318-08
收稿日期: 2016-12-29
修回日期: 2017-03-8
网络出版日期: 2017-11-20
版权声明: 2017 《地理科学》编辑部 本文是开放获取期刊文献，在以下情况下可以自由使用：学术研究、学术交流、科研教学等，但不允许用于商业目的.
基金资助:
作者简介:
作者简介：张延吉（1989-）,男,上海人,讲师,博士,主要从事城市地理学研究。E-mail：chairman7up@126.com
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摘要
利用CGSS、POI、道路网等数据,通过多层线性模型分析中国城市建成环境对居住安全感的影响。总体来看,混合型、密路网、紧凑型的建成环境对个体的居住安全感具有显著的负向影响。而“街道眼”的保护机制并非是自动产生的,唯有在社区凝聚力较高、人口构成较为同质的社会环境下,传统城市空间形态才能起到增进居住安全感的作用。因此,不应把当前“窄马路、密路网、开放型”的规划转型仅仅视为一项空间设计工作,而须与社区发展相结合,以使“街道眼”的功效得以充分发挥。
关键词：
Abstract
In the discipline of criminal geography, there always exists opposite theoretical views of the impact of urban built-up environment on sense of residential security. James Jocabs proposed the concept of ‘street eyes’ and appreciated its surveillance role in enhancing the sense of security, while the defensible space theory proposed by Newman regarded large flow of human traffic as public safety risk. This conflicting theoretical explanation incurred hesitation and confusion between aggregated design approach and segregated design approach. The different empirical findings and planning ideas stemmed from significant divergent built environment and social environment in various regions throughout the world. Owing to the existing research only carried out in European and American cities, it needs to be reexamined which theory has more explanatory power in Chinese context. Via Chinese General Social Survey data in the year of 2010, point of interest and road network data, this article analyzed the influence of urban built environment and its interaction role with social environment on sense of residential security in 278 Chinese urban communities through hierarchical linear modeling for the first time. This research demonstrated that mixed-used land measured by entropy index of POI functional types, compact road network measured by road density or proportion of secondary and slip road area, and high utilizing density measured by population density or POI density had a significant negative effect on sense of residential security overall. On the contrary, when built environment was relatively sparse, and had single land use and large block size, people would have a higher sense of security. It should be noted that the impact of urban built environment on sense of security is not invariable, and the ‘street eyes’ would not spontaneously play their defending roles until the community had strong cohesion, abundant social capital or homogenously composed. With the increase of community cohesion and population homogeneity, the positive role of "narrow road, dense network and open block" would gradually play on minimizing the resident’s sense of fear. However, according to the critical value in model, compact, permeable and diverse space still had negative effect on sense of security in most case communities in 2010. In other words, the theory of defense space is more applicable to most of sample communities in our country, and the function of street eyes is only played in a small number of sample communities with strong social cohesion and demographic homogeneity. To sum up, we should gradually and conditionally promote the planning work of "narrow road, dense network and open block", understand residents’ concerns about the sense of security, and avoid adopting a one-size-fits-all approach. Simultaneously, planners should combine the guiding ideology of urban design and the process of community development together in order to reach street eyes’ full potential and construct safe communities.
Keywords：
2016年2月,《关于进一步加强城市规划建设管理工作的若干意见》发布,明确指出要树立“窄马路、密路网”的城市道路布局理念,并逐步改变部分城市以大型地块和封闭小区为主的空间格局。该《意见》一经公布,便因安全议题备受公众关注。
不仅政策实践会遇到争议,犯罪空间理论也存在对立观点。Jacobs提出的“街道眼”概念认为,较高密度、混合利用、紧凑布局的建成环境为人群间的彼此保护创造了条件,有助降低犯罪率和提高安全感;蔓延、单一的城市空间则会成为孕育犯罪的温床[1]。针对美国、澳大利亚等地的研究证实,功能混合、小尺度街区以及可达性良好的人流密集社区普遍拥有较高的居住安全感[2~5]。与之相对,Newman的“防卫空间”理论认为“街道眼”的作用被夸大了。他指出,恰恰是人流密集场所为犯罪者提供了适宜作案的环境,进而降低了居住安全感[6]。如部分基于西方城市的研究发现,相较于传统的密路网社区,具有独立住宅、终端式道路网的远郊社区给居民带来了更高的安全感[7];在土地用途单一、连通性较差、缺乏开敞空间的社区中,居民也拥有更好的居住安全感[8];而社区商业点和公园空地的数量越多,居民主观感知到的安全风险会愈加强烈,这与高密度人群往往预示着更高的犯罪风险和不确定性有关[9,10]。
犯罪空间理论和实证发现的分歧源于各地的建成环境和社会环境存在巨大差异[11],需要在中国情境下重新加以审视。从现有国内研究来看,针对犯罪地理[12]和犯罪防控[13]的探讨日益增多,但客观的犯罪行为并不等同于主观的安全感[11,14],城市建成环境对居住安全感的影响仍处于基本空白的研究状态。这使得相关空间政策缺乏足够的本土理论作为依据,规划设计理念也不得不在分离性与整合性方法间游离。
为此,本研究利用中国综合社会调查（CGSS）数据、以及全国空间兴趣点（POI）、道路网等地理数据,定量分析城市建成环境对居住安全感的影响,以辨析两类犯罪空间理论在中国的适用性,并为“高密度、混合型、密路网”的空间政策转向提供建议。具体而言,旨在厘清两个相关的研究问题：第一,怎样的建成环境特征能对居住安全感的提升起到显著的促进作用?城市功能的混合性、街区尺度的宜人性、经济社会活动的紧凑性、公共设施的可达性是否对居住安全感具有显著的正向影响?第二,经典理论中的“街道眼”能否充分发挥降低居住不安全感的功效?这一自然监控机制的发生是否还需要一定的社会环境作为前提条件?
本文使用的数据来源于中国人民大学数据调查中心组织的2010年中国社会综合调查。该项目采取分层3阶段概率抽样方式,对内地31个省、自治区、直辖市的480个居（村）委会开展入户调查①（ ① 有关CGSS的信息可参见http://www.chinagss.org/。）（不包括港澳台地区）。在剔除村委会和存在缺失变量的样本后,共获得278个社区中的2 165个样本。
为测量社区的建成环境特征,爬取2012年1月某地图网站中的全国POI数据和路网底图（含道路等级、宽度等信息）。经空间校准,以278个社区居委会的所在地为圆心,以1 km为半径,获得缓冲区内的POI和路网,并将近100万个POI按功能归入31类用地性质②（ ② 参考城市建设用地分类标准（GB50137-2011）,依据POI的小类或名称,将其归入行政办公（A1）、文化设施（A2）、教育科研（A3）、体育（A4）、医疗卫生（A5）、社会福利（A6）、文物古迹或宗教（A7、A9）、外事（A8）、零售商业（B11）、批发（B12）、餐饮（B13）、旅馆（B14）、金融保险（B21）、艺术传媒（B22）、其他商务设施（B29）、娱乐康体（B3）、加油加气（B41）、其他公用设施（B49）、其它服务设施（B9）、公园（G1）、广场（G3）、一类住宅（R11）、二三类住宅（R21、R31）、服务设施（R12、R22、R32）、城市道路（S1）、轨道交通（S2）、综合交通枢纽（S3）、公共交通设施（S41）、社会停车场（S42）、工业（M）、物流仓储（W）等31类用地性质。）。
1.2.1 被解释变量
本研究的被解释变量为居住安全感,根据被调查者在多大程度上认同“居住的地方很安全”,分别将“完全同意”“同意”“既不同意也不反对”“不同意”“完全不同意”赋值为5、4、3、2、1。得分越高,反映居住安全感越好。
1.2.2 解释变量1：建成环境特征
建成环境、社会环境和个体特征是影响居住安全感的三大因素[11]。本文重点关注城市建成环境的影响,并探究建成环境与社会环境的交互作用。
Cervero等曾提出评价建成环境的3D维度[15],包括密度、多样性和设计。尔后,Ewing等增加了设施可达性和到公共交通距离两个维度[16]。
由于到公交距离与城市密度存在高度共线性,本文去除公交因素,以4D维度量化建成环境特征（表1）。其中,以搜索范围内POI所属用地类型的信息熵（EI）反映城市功能的多样性[17],若功能混合度越高,EI值就越大;以搜索范围内的道路网密度、次干道及支路占道路面积比重、道路平均宽度评价街区尺度的宜人性[17,18];以社区所在街道乡镇的常住人口密度、以及搜索范围内的POI密度反映各要素的紧凑性[17];考虑到主观感知的设施分布比客观设施数量对安全感具有更敏感的影响[7],引入个体评价的社区内部体育锻炼、买菜和文化娱乐等公共设施的可达性[4,9]。
表1 解释变量说明
Table 1 Independent variables’ description
| 概念维度 | 变量名 | 测量方式 |
|---|---|---|
| 建成环境特征 | ||
| 功能的多样性 | POI类型的熵指数 | EI=∑Si×ln(1/Si),其中Si为搜索范围内i类POI占总POI的比重 |
| 设计的宜人性 | 道路网密度 | 相同搜索面积内的道路总长度 |
| 次干道及支路占道路面积比重 | 搜索范围内次干道及支路面积与道路总面积之比 | |
| 道路平均宽度 | 搜索范围内所有道路宽度的均值 | |
| 要素的紧凑性 | 常住人口密度 | 社区所在街道乡镇的常住人口密度,数据来源于《中国2010年人口普查分乡、镇、街道资料》[24] |
| POI密度 | 相同搜索面积内的POI数量 | |
| 设施的可达性 | 社区内体锻场所的可达性 | 非常充足（=5 ）~ 非常不充足（=1） 同上 同上 |
| 社区内买菜场所的可达性 | ||
| 社区内文娱场所的可达性 | ||
| 社会环境特征 | 社区凝聚力 | 将关注公物、借用工具、邻里关心、邻里互助四方面的5点测量值取社区均值,由5至1,社区凝聚力逐步递减 |
| 外来人口比重 | 社区所在街道乡镇的外来人口占常住人口比重,数据来源同常住人口密度 | |
| 政府管制强度 | 搜索范围内区县及以上级别政府及公安局、派出所等相关POI占总POI的比重 | |
| 个体特征因素 | 性别 | 男=1,女=0 |
| 年龄 | 岁 | |
| 身心健康状况 | 健康=1;不健康=0 | |
| 户口类型 | 非农户口=1,农业户口=0 | |
| 经济收入水平 | 远高于城市平均=5 ~ 远低于城市平均=1 | |
| 对他人的信任感 | 非常信任=5 ~ 非常不信任=1 |
1.2.3 解释变量2：社会环境特征
社会环境也对居住安全感具有重要作用。社会解组理论曾指出,随着社区凝聚力的减弱和人口异质性的增加,传统社区中非正式的社会控制功能会被削弱,社会失序和分裂现象将加剧犯罪行为[19,20]和不安全感[21,22]。
为此,本文以“会阻止破坏社区公物现象”“能方便从邻居处借到工具”“邻里之间互相关心” “邻里之间互相帮助”等4方面的认同程度构建评价社区凝聚力的李克特5点量表③（③ 在测量时,根据被调查者是否认同这4方面表述符合实际情况进行评价,分别将“完全同意”“同意”“既不同意也不反对”“不同意”“完全不同意”赋值为5、4、3、2、1。）。上述4题的Cronbach α系数为0.823,说明信度水平较好。由于外来人口大多与暂住地缺乏共同价值观,被认为对社区的安全感起着负面影响[23],本文还以外来人口占常住人口比重体现社会结构的异质性[19]。
此外,鉴于政府管制是维持社会控制力的重要手段,本研究以搜索范围内中央、省级、地市级、区县级政府以及公安局、派出所相关的POI数量占总POI的比重反映管制强度。
1.2.4 解释变量3：个体特征因素
孩子、老年人、妇女和低收入家庭居民的安全最易受到威胁[21],身心健康状况[14]、社会资本[7]、外来人口、以及是否拥有房屋产权也会对个体安全感产生显著影响[9,11]。因此,本文将相关个体特征作为控制变量。
分析数据涉及微观个体和宏观社区两个层面,而针对嵌套数据结构,OLS回归难以满足残差独立、随机等假设,将导致无效有偏估计[25]。因此,研究采用多层线性模型（Hierarchical Linear Modeling）,形式如下：
微观个体层面：
宏观社区层面：
式中,
出于稳健考虑,对利用POI和道路网获得的宏观层面变量采用500 m和1 km两种搜索口径。同时将解释变量的标准分数（Z值）纳入模型,以反映其相对影响大小。
由模型1可见（表2）,POI所属用地类型的信息熵对居住安全感具有显著的负向影响,随着城市功能的混合度增加,居住安全感将显著下降。模型2引入道路网设计的相关变量,其中道路网密度、次干道及支路占道路面积比重均与居住安全感存在明显的负向关系。即在道路网越是密集、次干道及支路网越是发达的区域,市民的居住安全感反而较低。模型3和模型4进一步显示,较高的常住人口密度和POI密度同样对居住安全感起到了显著的负面作用。
表2 多层线性模型回归结果
Table 2 Regression results of HLM
| （1） | （2） | （3） | （4） | （5） | （6） | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500 m | 1 km | 500 m | 1 km | - | 500 m | 1 km | - | 500 m | 1 km | |
| 宏观层面 | ||||||||||
| POI类型的熵指数 | -0.091*** | -0.082*** | ||||||||
| 道路网密度 | -0.077*** | -0.074*** | ||||||||
| 次干道支路占道路面积比重 | -0.097*** | -0.111*** | ||||||||
| 道路平均宽度 | -0.003 | 0.005 | ||||||||
| 常住人口密度 | -0.080*** | |||||||||
| POI密度 | -0.084** | -0.098*** | ||||||||
| 社区凝聚力 | 0.229*** | 0.228*** | ||||||||
| 外来人口比重 | -0.051* | -0.048* | ||||||||
| 政府机关POI占总POI比重 | 0.078*** | 0.068** | ||||||||
| 微观层面 | ||||||||||
| 性别 | -0.018 | -0.082*** | -0.018 | -0.018 | -0.017 | -0.018 | -0.018 | -0.016 | -0.006 | -0.006 |
| 年龄 | 0.078*** | 0.079*** | 0.079*** | 0.080*** | 0.081*** | 0.080*** | 0.081*** | 0.064*** | 0.031* | 0.031* |
| 身心健康程度 | 0.070*** | 0.070*** | 0.073*** | 0.074*** | 0.071*** | 0.071*** | 0.072*** | 0.053** | 0.055** | 0.056** |
| 户口状况 | -0.077*** | -0.078*** | -0.077*** | -0.072*** | -0.083*** | -0.085*** | -0.084*** | -0.100*** | -0.090*** | -0.090*** |
| 经济收入水平 | 0.065*** | 0.064*** | 0.063*** | 0.063*** | 0.063*** | 0.063*** | 0.064*** | 0.045** | 0.038** | 0.039** |
| 对他人的信任感 | 0.107*** | 0.107*** | 0.104*** | 0.104*** | 0.107*** | 0.108*** | 0.107*** | 0.092*** | 0.067*** | 0.067*** |
| 社区体锻场所的充足程度 | 0.161*** | 0.137*** | 0.137*** | |||||||
| 社区买菜场所的充足程度 | 0.126*** | 0.098*** | 0.097*** | |||||||
| 社区文娱场所的充足程度 | 0.082*** | 0.094*** | 0.095*** | |||||||
| 截距 | 3.678*** | 3.678*** | 3.678*** | 3.679*** | 3.678*** | 3.677*** | 3.677*** | 3.673*** | 3.678*** | 3.677*** |
| 随机效应 | ||||||||||
| 宏观层次方差s2 | 0.123*** | 0.124*** | 0.118*** | 0.112*** | 0.124*** | 0.123*** | 0.120*** | 0.133*** | 0.092*** | 0.093*** |
上述发现初步表明,在城市功能越是多样,街区尺度越是宜人、经济社会活动越是紧凑的传统城市建成环境里,市民的居住安全感反而较差。相反,在用途较为单一、地块尺度较大、人流相对稀疏的建成环境里,市民却普遍具有更高的居住安全感。由此可见,人性化空间中大量陌生人的集聚并没能促使“街道眼”的自然监控机制得到充分发挥。另一些相关证据显示,街头抢劫等犯罪行为也主要发生在土地利用混合度较高、道路通达性良好[26]、以及交通枢纽、商业区等人流密集区域[27],而犯罪行为的发生可能会进一步加剧空间使用者的不确定性和不安全感。
模型5显示,当社区内部的体育锻炼场所、菜市场、文化休闲场所较为充足时,市民的居住安全感会获得显著提升。由于CGSS问卷提及的这些场所系指社区内部的公共设施,吸引的人流大多为社区周边居民。这表明,有利于人流集聚和城市活力的建成环境并不会必然导致安全感的丧失。例如,在社区内部的半熟人圈子中,“街道眼”能够起到提升居住安全感的作用。
上述一正一反的结论暗示,在探讨建成环境对居住安全感的影响时,必须充分考虑社会环境因素;而“街道眼”的自然监控机制能否更好地发挥保护功效,也可能取决于构成“街道眼”的人群凝聚力和异质性状况。
为检验上述假设,本文首先在模型5的基础上,纳入社区凝聚力和外来人口比重,以探究社会环境对居住安全感的影响。
模型6显示,社区凝聚力是所有因素中对居住安全感影响程度最大的解释变量。随着社区凝聚力的增强,居住安全感会得到显著提升。与之相似,外来人口比重对居住安全感具有显著的负面影响。当社区人口构成存在较强异质性,彼此缺乏情感纽带和共同价值观时,社区的居住安全感将相应受到削弱。
考虑到建成环境特征可能会在不同社会环境下对居住安全感产生差异化影响,本文进一步将社区凝聚力和外来人口比重作为调节变量,在模型7至模型11中引入各类建成环境特征与社区凝聚力的交互项,在模型12至模型16中引入各类建成环境特征与外来人口比重的交互项（表3）。
表3 多层线性模型回归结果
Table 3 Regression results of HLM
| （7） | （8） | （9） | （10） | （11） | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500 m | 1 km | 500 m | 1 km | 500 m | 1 km | - | 500 m | 1 km | |||||
| 社区凝聚力 | 0.200*** | 0.186*** | 0.204*** | 0.193*** | 0.216*** | 0.218*** | 0.191*** | 0.196*** | 0.185*** | ||||
| 道路网密度 | -0.056*** | -0.078*** | |||||||||||
| 道路网密度×社区凝聚力 | 0.092*** | 0.108*** | |||||||||||
| 次干道及支路占道路面积比重 | -0.089*** | -0.111*** | |||||||||||
| 次干道及支路比重×社区凝聚力 | 0.025 | 0.022 | |||||||||||
| POI类型的熵指数 | -0.001 | -0.006 | |||||||||||
| POI类型的熵指数×社区凝聚力 | 0.073** | 0.076** | |||||||||||
| 常住人口密度 | -0.077*** | ||||||||||||
| 常住人口密度×社区凝聚力 | 0.079*** | ||||||||||||
| POI密度 | -0.080** | -0.095*** | |||||||||||
| POI密度×社区凝聚力 | 0.090*** | 0.098*** | |||||||||||
| （12） | （13） | （14） | （15） | （16） | |||||||||
| 500 m | 1 km | 500 m | 1 km | 500 m | 1 km | - | 500 m | 1 km | |||||
| 外来人口比重 | -0.081*** | -0.053* | -0.056** | -0.050** | -0.088** | -0.100*** | -0.032 | -0.055** | -0.041 | ||||
| 道路网密度 | -0.099*** | -0.136*** | |||||||||||
| 道路网密度×外来人口比重 | -0.110*** | -0.130*** | |||||||||||
| 次干道及支路占道路面积比重 | -0.091*** | -0.127*** | |||||||||||
| 次干道支路比重×外来人口比重 | -0.024 | -0.025 | |||||||||||
| POI类型的熵指数 | -0.069*** | -0.054** | |||||||||||
| POI类型熵指数×外来人口比重 | -0.097*** | -0.058** | |||||||||||
| 常住人口密度 | -0.079*** | ||||||||||||
| 常住人口密度×外来人口比重 | -0.087** | ||||||||||||
| POI密度 | -0.056* | -0.077** | |||||||||||
| POI密度×外来人口比重 | -0.046* | -0.066** | |||||||||||
结果显示,POI的信息熵、道路网密度、次干道及支路比重、人口密度和POI密度等变量的回归系数仍大多显著为负。值得注意的是,社区凝聚力与上述建成环境变量的交互项均为正值,而外来人口比重与上述建成环境变量的交互项均为负值。尽管部分交互项的回归系数尚不显著,但该发现表明：随着社区凝聚力的降低和外来人口比重的增加,高密度、混合型、密路网的城市空间形态对居住安全感的负面影响会不断加强。反之,在社区凝聚力较强、外来人口比重相对较低的社会环境中,道路网密度、人口密度、POI的信息熵等变量的回归系数将逐步由负向转为正向。换而言之,“街道眼”在传统城市空间形态中的自然监控机制会逐步发挥出积极作用。
例如,当社区凝聚力的标准分数小于0.61（=0.056÷0.092,见模型7）时,社区周边500 m范围内的道路网密度对居住安全感具有显著负向影响;而在社区凝聚力超过样本均值0.61个标准差后,道路网密度对居住安全感的正向影响将逐步显。与之相似,当社区外来人口比重的标准分数大于-0.71（=-0.069÷0.097,见模型14）时,POI类型的熵指数对居住安全感具有显著负向影响;而在外来人口比重低于样本均值0.71个标准差后,混合用地开始发挥出对居住安全感的正面作用。不过,由临界值可知,目前高密度、混合型、密路网的城市建成环境只对少数社区的居住安全感具有正向影响。
综上所述,城市建成环境对居住安全感的影响并非始终是同向的,传统城市空间形态所吸引的密集人流究竟带来了“街道眼”的自然监控机制,还是引发了更多的不确定性和不安全感取决于社会环境状况。只有城市空间的使用者对社区保有凝聚力和认同感,彼此之间具有更多的同质性,愿意关心和参与社区公共事务,那么高密度、混合型、密路网所带来的“街道眼”才能发挥出应有的保护机制。相反,若居民构成的异质性愈强,社区凝聚力较弱,彼此视对方为过客,那么人流集聚不仅不能提高居住安全感,反而会增加居民对潜在安全风险的担忧。
此外,由模型6可见,政府机构及公安机关的POI比重对居住安全感具有显著正向影响。这说明,在建成环境等因素不变的情况下,增强政府的治安管理强度能够为提高居住安全感起到积极作用。
控制变量显示,年龄较长、身心健康状况良好、经济收入水平较高、对他人信任感较强的个体,普遍拥有较高的居住安全感;性别在大部分模型中并不显著。意外的是,非农户口者的居住安全感显著低于持有农业户口的居民,这或与前者对居住安全的要求更高有关。
本文利用中国社会状况调查数据和全国POI、道路网等地理数据,首次定量化地分析了中国城市建成环境对居住安全感的影响。研究表明：从总体来看,高密度、混合型、密路网的传统城市空间形态对居住安全感具有显著的负向影响。换而言之,雅各布斯提出的“街道眼”并没能充分发挥出自然监控功能,进而限制了居住安全感的改善;相反,人流集聚给居民带来了更多的不确定性和不安全感。但需要指出的是,这并不意味着否定高密度、混合型、密路网等传统城市空间形态的重要价值。
本文认为,传统城市建成环境中的密集人流提供了自然监控的机会和可能,但无论是整合性的规划方法（以新城市主义为代表）、还是分离性的规划方法（以封闭小区为代表）都没有指出,“街道眼”的监控机制并不是自动自发实现的,其能否发挥相互照应和彼此保护的作用取决于社会环境的整合程度。研究发现：在拥有较强社区凝聚力、居民构成较为同质的社区,高密度、混合型、密路网所提供的“街道眼”能够起到提高居住安全感的作用,而由半熟人构成的社区公共空间也能显著增加居住安全感。然而,对于凝聚力较低、人口构成较为异质的社区而言,由于存在社会松散和失序现象,越是有利于人群活动和集聚的空间,越会增加空间使用者的不安。从计量结果来看,目前后一类社区在中国占到多数,这也是总体上高密度、混合型、密路网的空间形态对应于较低居住安全感的原因所在。
当下,中央《意见》所倡导的“窄马路、密路网、开放型”等规划政策初衷是为了更好地促进社会融合、激发城市活力、打通交通循环。为更好实现这些目标,政策制定与执行者需要理解现实状况下居民对居住安全感的担忧,要逐步、有条件地推进这项工作,避免采取一刀切或一哄而上的做法。更为重要的是,需要意识到规划指导理念的转向不仅仅是一项空间设计工作,更应该与社区发展和社区营造相结合,与提高城市管理和公共服务水平相结合。唯有一个彼此信任、充满归属感和凝聚力的社会,才可能将犯罪空间理论中的“街道眼”得以在真实生活里发挥功效,真正使城市让生活更安全、更美好。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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Background Direct relationships between safety concerns and physical activity have been inconsistently patterned in the literature. To tease out these relationships, crime, pedestrian, and traffic safety were examined as moderators of built environment associations with physical activity. Methods Exploratory analyses used two cross-sectional studies of 2068 adults ages 20???65 and 718 seniors ages 66+ with similar designs and measures. The studies were conducted in the Baltimore, Maryland-Washington, DC and Seattle-King County, Washington regions during 2001???2005 (adults) and 2005???2008 (seniors). Participants were recruited from areas selected to sample high- and low- income and walkability. Independent variables perceived crime, traffic, and pedestrian safety were measured using scales from validated instruments. A GIS-based walkability index was calculated for a street-network buffer around each participant???s home address. Outcomes were total physical activity measured using accelerometers and transportation and leisure walking measured with validated self-reports (IPAQ-long). Mixed effects regression models were conducted separately for each sample. Results Of 36 interactions evaluated across both studies, only 5 were significant (p???<???.05). Significant interactions did not consistently support a pattern of highest physical activity when safety was rated high and environments were favorable. There was not consistent evidence that safety concerns reduced the beneficial effects of favorable environments on physical activity. Only pedestrian safety showed evidence of a consistent main effect with physical activity outcomes, possibly because pedestrian safety items (e.g., crosswalks, sidewalks) were not as subjective as those on the crime and traffic safety scales. Conclusions Clear relationships between crime, pedestrian, and traffic safety with physical activity levels remain elusive. The development of more precise safety variables and the use of neighborhood-specific physical activity outcomes may help to elucidate these relationships.
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61Parents' fear of strangers is implicated in children's declining independent mobility.61There is limited awareness of the factors that shape parents' fears about strangers.61We examined the correlates of parents' fear of strangers and perceptions of risk.61Built environments that encouraged ‘eyes on the street’ correlated with lower fear.61More walkable neighbourhoods may help alleviate parents' fears about strangers.
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A Review of Urban Spatial Anti-crime Study in China from 1980 to 2000.
从4个方面透视了我国20年来城市犯罪空间防控的研究进展。(1)溯源—学习与批判。国外的犯罪原因传统理论、犯罪新理论和城市犯罪空间理论等,为我国城市犯罪空间防控研究提供了理论素养和反面教训。(2)历程—理念与实践。城市犯罪空间防控研究从介绍国外研究成果并蕴育科学理念,到结合中国国情尝试应用实践,再到初步提出理论体系,经历了一个短暂而并不缓慢的发展历程。(3)凝练—概念与框架。理清了空间防控的概念内涵、理论要点,阐明了空间防控的不可替代性。(4)展望—拓展与深化。我国城镇化的客观需求必将为空间防控研究提供强大的推动力,地理学必将在空间防控研究领域里取得重大而独特的成就。
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78 We explore links between crime, fear of crime, environment and health and wellbeing. 78 Fear of crime may mediate some impacts of environmental factors on wellbeing. 78 The environmental determinants and population-level impacts of crime are less clear. 78 Theory-informed reviews of pathways can be valuable in synthesising complex evidence.
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The built environment is thought to influence travel demand along three principal dimensions —density, diversity, and design. This paper tests this proposition by examining how the ‘3Ds’ affect trip rates and mode choice of residents in the San Francisco Bay Area. Using 1990 travel diary data and land-use records obtained from the U.S. census, regional inventories, and field surveys, models are estimated that relate features of the built environment to variations in vehicle miles traveled per household and mode choice, mainly for non-work trips. Factor analysis is used to linearly combine variables into the density and design dimensions of the built environment. The research finds that density, land-use diversity, and pedestrian-oriented designs generally reduce trip rates and encourage non-auto travel in statistically significant ways, though their influences appear to be fairly marginal. Elasticities between variables and factors that capture the 3Ds and various measures of travel demand are generally in the 0.06 to 0.18 range, expressed in absolute terms. Compact development was found to exert the strongest influence on personal business trips. Within-neighborhood retail shops, on the other hand, were most strongly associated with mode choice for work trips. And while a factor capturing ‘walking quality’ was only moderately related to mode choice for non-work trips, those living in neighborhoods with grid-iron street designs and restricted commercial parking were nonetheless found to average significantly less vehicle miles of travel and rely less on single-occupant vehicles for non-work trips. Overall, this research shows that the elasticities between each dimension of the built environment and travel demand are modest to moderate, though certainly not inconsequential. Thus it supports the contention of new urbanists and others that creating more compact, diverse, and pedestrian-orientated neighborhoods, in combination, can meaningfully influence how Americans travel.
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Travel and the Built Environment: A Meta-Analysis [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/01944361003766766 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Operationalizing Jane Jacobs’s Urban Design Theory: Empirical Verification from the Great City of Seoul, Korea [J].https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X14568021 URL [本文引用: 3] |
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Can Built and Social Environmental Factors Encourage Walking among Individuals with Negative Walking Attitudes? [J].https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X11427914 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
We investigate whether the design of the built environment encourages walking above and beyond individuals' attitudes toward walking. With data from a regional travel survey, we use regression analyses to examine differences in neighborhood walking trips among residents with positive and negative attitudes toward walking. The results show that built and social environment factors have a differential impact on walking trips depending on a person's walking attitudes. Therefore, strategies to promote positive walking attitudes should be pursued in tandem with land use policies to encourage neighborhood walking.
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Community Structure and Crime: Testing Social-Disorganization Theory [J].https://doi.org/10.1086/229068 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Shaw and McKay's influential theory of community social disorganization has never been directly tested. To address this, a community-level theory that builds on Shaw and McKay's original model is formulated and tested. The general hypothesis is that low economic status, ethnic heterogeneity, residential mobility, and family disruption lead to community social disorganization, which, in turn, increases crime and delinquency rates. A community's level of social organization is measured in terms of local friendship networks, control of street-corner teenage peer groups, and prevalence of organizational participation. The model is first tested by analyzing data for 238 localities in Great Britain constructed from a 1982 national survey of 10,905 residents. The model is then replicated on an independent national sample of 11,030 residents of 300 British localities in 1984. Results from both surveys support the theory and show that between-community variations in social disorganization transmit much of the effect of community structural characteristics on rates of both criminal victimization and criminal offending.
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Replicating Sampson and Grove’s test of social disorganization theory: revisiting a criminological classic [J].https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427803256077 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
ABSTRACT Using data from the British Crime Survey conducted in 1982, Sampson and Groves provided a convincing test of social disorganization theory. Although macro-level theory was in the midst of a revival when this investigation appeared, no single article did more to polish the previously tarnished image of social disorganization theory than Sampson and Groves's analysis; in fact, this work has become a criminological classic. Subsequent research, however, has not systematically replicated this study. Questions thus remain as to whether Sampson and Groves uncovered enduring empirical realities or idiosyncratic relationships reflecting the time period from which the data were drawn. In this context, the current research seeks to replicate Sampson and Groves's findings with data from the 1994 British Crime Survey. Analyses of similar models with similar measures yield results consistent with social disorganization theory and consistent with the results presented by Sampson and Groves. Our study suggests, therefore, that the findings of the initial classic study were not artifactual but illuminated an underlying empirical pattern that has persisted over time.
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Testing for Individual Factors for the Fear of Crime Using a Multiple Indicator-Multiple Cause Model [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10610-013-9208-4 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
ABSTRACT In the extant literature, very few studies have simultaneously examined the impact of individual attributes, neighbourhood disorder and social cohesion on an individual’s fear of crime. This article addresses the use of multiple-indicator, multiple-cause (MIMIC) analysis for testing different variables related to the fear of crime based on a number of theories. Face-to-face interviews with residents of a high-crime council estate were conducted to examine the crime rate, disorder, cohesion and the fear of crime in the participants’ residential area. The results support the incivilities thesis and the vulnerability hypothesis, while the social disorganisation theory was partially supported. It was concluded that women and the elderly demonstrate higher levels of fear than men and the nonelderly and that crime, disorder and social cohesion have a direct effect on one’s level of fear, as the decreases in neighbourhood cohesion increase the individuals’ levels of fear. In addition, people who have been victimised and those who perceive higher levels of incivility were found to be more fearful of crime. By incorporating the three theories, the final model is able to account for 50 % of the variance in the fear of crime.
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Neighborhood Built Environment, Perceived Danger, and Perceived Social Cohesion [J].https://doi.org/10.1177/0013916513503833 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
We examined whether the prevalence of commercial diversity, heavy traffic, sidewalks, and trees is associated with perceived social cohesion in Los Angeles County neighborhoods, and how concentrated disadvantage and perceived danger shape these relationships. Consistent with theoretical expectations, concentrated disadvantage and danger were associated with lower cohesion. The effects of built characteristics on cohesion were moderated by disadvantage and/or perceived danger. Danger moderated the effect of commercial diversity, sidewalks, and trees, and concentrated disadvantage moderated the coefficients on built variables (excepting trees) such that the magnitude of their effects were stronger in high-disadvantage neighborhoods. We conclude that built characteristics appear to matter more for cohesion in high-disadvantage neighborhoods and also that approaches to promoting cohesion through the built environment should focus on bolstering residents' perceptions of safety.
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Constructing Renters as a Threat to Neighbourhood Safety [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2014.925099 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The physical and social organization of the urban environment plays a central role in the formation of individual perceptions of crime. This paper examines how the presence of rental housing is constructed as a risk to neighbourhood safety by urban homeowners. The presence of the ideology of homeownership fosters a social context in which renters are constructed as disinvested and irresponsible individuals. As a result, renters are perceived to pose both an indirect and direct threat to the safety of a neighbourhood. Data from 23 semi-structured interviews with urban homeowners are used to illustrate this process. The paper concludes by considering how these perceptions adversely affect tenants and perpetuate spatial patterns of inequality.
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Hierarchical Linear Models: Applications and Data Analysis Methods (Second Edition) [M]. |
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DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪案件热点时空模式 [J].https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201312011 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
选取H市中心城区DP半岛作为研究区域,以岛上2006-2011年发生的街头抢劫案件(共373起)作为研究对象,将DP半岛内街头抢劫案件的时空分布特征分别从宏观和局部微观两个尺度层面进行系统的分析。首先,对岛上的街头抢劫案件按年、月和小时进行统计分析,总结其在不同时间尺度上的变化规律:2007年开始的严打使案件数量逐年减少,直到2010年才略有回升;春节期间(二月前后)的案件数量明显高于其他月份;晚上22:00-23:00期间是案件高发时段。其次,利用Kernel密度方法对研究区街头抢劫犯罪的宏观空间分布进行整体的辨别,剥离出犯罪热点空间分布,分析热点与道路网和土地利用的关联性,结果表明热点多分布于主干道、通达性高的节点或土地利用混合度高的地方。最后,选出4个最主要的热点从微观尺度进行分析,PAI指数表明这4个热点在时间上是稳定的,从2006年到2011年一直存在。依据"热点时空类型矩阵"的时间分布和空间分布模式,将这4个稳定热点归类到不同微观时空模式,并对每类模式下的街头抢劫犯罪提出有针对性的防控对策,以便优化警力资源的配置、最大限度抑制和减少犯罪的发生。
Zhou Suhong et al.The Spatio-temporal Patterns of Street Robbery in DP Peninsula. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201312011 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
选取H市中心城区DP半岛作为研究区域,以岛上2006-2011年发生的街头抢劫案件(共373起)作为研究对象,将DP半岛内街头抢劫案件的时空分布特征分别从宏观和局部微观两个尺度层面进行系统的分析。首先,对岛上的街头抢劫案件按年、月和小时进行统计分析,总结其在不同时间尺度上的变化规律:2007年开始的严打使案件数量逐年减少,直到2010年才略有回升;春节期间(二月前后)的案件数量明显高于其他月份;晚上22:00-23:00期间是案件高发时段。其次,利用Kernel密度方法对研究区街头抢劫犯罪的宏观空间分布进行整体的辨别,剥离出犯罪热点空间分布,分析热点与道路网和土地利用的关联性,结果表明热点多分布于主干道、通达性高的节点或土地利用混合度高的地方。最后,选出4个最主要的热点从微观尺度进行分析,PAI指数表明这4个热点在时间上是稳定的,从2006年到2011年一直存在。依据"热点时空类型矩阵"的时间分布和空间分布模式,将这4个稳定热点归类到不同微观时空模式,并对每类模式下的街头抢劫犯罪提出有针对性的防控对策,以便优化警力资源的配置、最大限度抑制和减少犯罪的发生。
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| [27] |
长春市财产犯罪的空间分析 [J].
基于长春市公安局提供的警区层面的犯罪数据,分析了长春市2008 年财产犯罪率的空间分布特征。研究发现长春市财产犯罪率呈现出城市中心高而外围低的圈层式空间模式。通过对犯罪高发区域的用地性质和功能的分析发现,长春市主要商业区和主要客运交通枢纽所在警区均具有较高的财产犯罪率。利用空间分析的方法,判定出长春市财产犯罪的热点地区,从统计学意义上验证了犯罪活动的空间集聚性,进而推测这些区域可能存在犯罪扩散和溢出效应。借鉴国外相关理论及实证研究,结合长春市实际情况,通过回归建模分析,探讨了长春市财产犯罪率同人口、社会经济、土地利用等各因子可能存在的相互关系,发现长春市财产犯罪率受到人口密度、就业活跃度、商业区、服务业活跃度、客运枢纽和年轻人口比例的显著影响,在一定程度上支持了日常活动理论的基本观点,但需结合长春市实际情况做具体分析与解释。
Spatial Analysis of Property Crimes in Changchun.
基于长春市公安局提供的警区层面的犯罪数据,分析了长春市2008 年财产犯罪率的空间分布特征。研究发现长春市财产犯罪率呈现出城市中心高而外围低的圈层式空间模式。通过对犯罪高发区域的用地性质和功能的分析发现,长春市主要商业区和主要客运交通枢纽所在警区均具有较高的财产犯罪率。利用空间分析的方法,判定出长春市财产犯罪的热点地区,从统计学意义上验证了犯罪活动的空间集聚性,进而推测这些区域可能存在犯罪扩散和溢出效应。借鉴国外相关理论及实证研究,结合长春市实际情况,通过回归建模分析,探讨了长春市财产犯罪率同人口、社会经济、土地利用等各因子可能存在的相互关系,发现长春市财产犯罪率受到人口密度、就业活跃度、商业区、服务业活跃度、客运枢纽和年轻人口比例的显著影响,在一定程度上支持了日常活动理论的基本观点,但需结合长春市实际情况做具体分析与解释。
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