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CN 22-1124/P
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  • 地理科学
      2011年, 第31卷, 第9期 刊出日期:1997-09-20 上一期    下一期
    选择: 合并摘要 显示图片
    论文
    中国城市群形成发育的新格局及新趋向
    方创琳
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1025-1034.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1025
    摘要   PDF (1141KB)
    通过对中国城市群识别标准与现状格局的基本判断,提出了城市群形成发育的现状格局是由15个达到发育标准的城市群和8个未达到发育标准的城市群组成的"15+8"的空间格局,分析了中国城市群形成发育中呈现出的高密度集聚、高速度成长、高强度运转的"三高"特点,认为中国城市群形成发育中存在"四低"问题(发育程度低,投入产出效率低,紧凑度低,资源环境保障程度低)、"四争"问题(不顾条件盲目跟风争相纳入国家战略、争建国家试验区,不顾红线争相扩权强势、引发大规模的变相圈地造城运动,不顾深度合作争相重复建设、出现徒有虚名的高度一体化,不顾资源环境承载力争相提出高目标、滋生区域剥夺行为)、"四过"问题(过多的政府主导与行政干预、过高的发展前景估计、过密的集聚负效应和过大的发展差距)和"五缺失"问题(缺失统一的城市群识别标准、缺失规范的统计数据、缺失明确的归口管理机关、缺失公认的规划编制办法与执业制度、缺失权威的城市群规划法律地位);进而提出了中国城市群的总体发展战略与建设目标,认为未来中国城市群将形成由23大城市群、6大城市群集聚区和"π"字型城市群连绵带组成的国家城市群空间结构体系。最后提出了城市群建设的政策保障机制与对策建议。建议组建国家级城市群协调发展管理委员会和地方级城市群协调发展管理委员会,建立城市群公共财政机制和公共财政储备制度;修订《城乡规划法》或出台《区域规划法》,增补城市群规划的内容,制定城市群合作公约,出台《城市群规划编制审批办法》和《城市群规划实施管理条例》,建立城市群规划执业制度;出台城市群规划技术导则,引导城市群科学规划,加强城市群资源环境保障能力和可持续发展能力建设;依托快速国土轴,加快建设国家高速公路的7918网和以四纵四横为干线的国家高速铁路网,完善城市群快速交通系统;规范统计标准数据,编制并出版中国城市群统计年鉴。
    Based on the basic judgment of identification standards and spatial structure of urban agglomerations in China, this paper considered that "15+8" spatial structure system comprised of 15 compliance and 8 non-compliance of urban agglomerations was the present structure of formation and development of urban agglomerations in China. The main conclusions were as follows. Firstly, analyzing the "three high" characteristic comprised of high-density cluster, high-speed growth, high-intensity operation of urban agglomerations in China, this paper put forward: 1) "Four Low" problems containing low development degree, low input-output efficiency, low compact degree, low resources and environmental protection degree, 2) "Four Competition" problems comprised of blindly competing for national strategies regardless of own condition to strive for national pilot area, expanding their power regardless of the red line to trigger a large-scale land to construct cities, leading to the so-called high degree of integration with competing for construction repeatedly regardless of cooperation, breeding area deprivation with drawing up high goals careless for the resources and environmental capacity; 3) "Four-off" problems containing excessive intervention of government and administration, high estimated of the development prospects, dense negative effect of the clustering size, large development gap and 4) "Five Missing" problems comprised of lack of unified identification standard of urban agglomerations, lack of standardized statistical data, lack of centralized management with specific authorities, lack of accepted planning approach and implementation institution, lack of planning legal status of urban agglomerations. Secondly, this paper brought forward the overall development strategy and construction goals of urban agglomerations in China and thought that it would form national urban agglomerations spatial structure system comprised of 23 urban agglomerations, 6 urban agglomerations gathering area and "π" shaped urban agglomerations continuous band. Finally, some policy support mechanism and countermeasures suggestions for the construction of urban agglomerations in China were put forward: 1) to formate a national-level and local-level coordinated development management committee of urban agglomerations, public finance mechanisms and public financial reserve system for urban agglomerations, 2) to revise Town and Country Planning Act or to introduce Regional Planning Act which will add the content of urban agglomerations planning and draft treaty for cooperation of urban agglomerations, 3) to introduce Urban Agglomerations Planning Approval Approach and Urban Agglomerations Planning Implementation Management Ordinance and to build urban agglomerations planning implementation institution, 4) to introduce technical guide to guide scientific planning for urban agglomerations and to strengthen resources and environmental protection capacity and sustainable development capacity of urban agglomerations, 5) relying on the rapid land-axis and speeding up to construct the 7 918 national highway network and "four vertical and four horizontal" high-speed railway network for improving rapid transit system of urban agglomerations, and 6) to specify standards of statistical data and compile and publish Statistical Yearbook of Urban Agglomerations in China.
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    区域空间结构模式的发生学解释——区域双核结构模式理论地位的判别
    陆玉麒, 董平
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1035-1042.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1035
    摘要   PDF (831KB)
    从发生学角度试图证明,区域空间结构模型由区位论、双核论、海港论3大理论所组成,分别基于内生型、过渡型、外源型的区域发展背景。具体而言,均质平原是上述3个理论共同的假设条件,其实也是所有区域空间结构模型提炼的必要条件,但充分条件则各不相同。区域发展过程的不同,衍生出不同的区域空间结构形态及相应的区域空间结构模型。由此,至少从发生学角度而言,这3个理论模型构成了区域空间结构模型的基本理论体系框架。区域双核结构模式的理论地位也得以科学地确立。
    From the angle of genology, it is confirmed that the model of regional spatial structure is composed of location theory, dual-nuclei theory and harbor theory which are put forward respectively based on the endogenetic regional development background, transitionary regional development background and exogenous regional development background. Particularly, the three spatial structure theories are put forward on the common assumption that the topography in a region is homogeneous plain, which is also a necessary condition of all regional spatial structure models, but the sufficient condition is different for different models. Because of the different regional development process, different spatial structure patterns are formed and the corresponding regional spatial structure models are put forward. Location theory was abstracted based on the endogenetic regional development process and was drived by endogenesis force. The typical regional cases in Germany in Europe are elected to prove the authentic of the model which brought out a shape of perfect hexagon spatial structure system. Harbor theory was abstracted based on exogenous regional development process in America and its colonies in Africa, which is drived by exogenous force. And the dual-nuclei theory was abstracted based on the transitionary regional development process in China which was drived by balanced endogenesis and exogenous forces. The dual-nuclei is composed of regional central place and the harbor city, such as Jinan-Qingdao, Beijing-Tianjin,Hefei-Wuhu and Chengdu-Chongqing and so on. From the angle of genology, the basic theoretical framework system of spatial structure models is constituted by the three theoretical models. And the theoretical status of dual-nuclei structure model is scientifically established in academic circles. The scholars in America had great style of preciseness, during the process of probing the central place system in America, who found that the perfect hexagon spatial structure system model disagreed with the fact of regional spatial structure in America, and the harbor spatial structure model in North America was abstracted based on the reality of regional development process. Accordingly, during the studying on the regional spatial structure system in China, not only the whole regional characteristics should be analyzed, but also the characteristics in every individual region should be analyzed deeply and comprehensively.
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    转型期中国科研机构融入国际学术知识网络的动力机制研究
    HENNEMANN Stefan, 汪涛
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1043-1049.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1043
    摘要   PDF (860KB)
    中国科学技术体制现在正处于非常重要的转型期。在过去的十多年里,不仅高校进行了合并和重组,一些公共研究机构也进行了全面调整以应对国家未来发展的需求。不仅如此,国家政策和全球化的趋势还要求中国科学研究体系融入到全球科研体系中。通过对1998~2004年的国际科学刊物中有中国参与发表的合作论文数据进行分析,探索哪些科研机构在直接或间接吸收国外相关研究组织研究成果中发挥重要作用。结果表明,中国科研机构不同科研组织与国外高校间的知识联系存在着相当稳定的等级序列,精英高校的影响力远远大于公共研究机构,而且随着时间的推移,精英高校在本地和全球科研机构间起着越来越重要的中介作用。虽然北京处于中国知识网络中的核心地位,但这种空间上的核心边缘差异表现出逐步缩小的趋势。精英高校的主动融合效应和全球知识系统的涓滴效应共同推进了中国学术知识网络的演化。
    The Chinese science and technology system is currently going through a period of considerable transition. Within a period of just 10 years, not only was the university system consolidated and upgraded, but the public research organizations also found themselves completely restructured in order to meet the future requirements of their country, namely the production of new knowledge. The tendency of globalization also requires the integration of the Chinese academic system into the global research system. This article aims to answer the question as to which group of universities and research organizations is most relevant for the absorbing of knowledge directly and indirectly from foreign research-related organizations. For this purpose, the international scientific publications from 1998 to 2004 with Chinese involvement were analyzed. A network constructed from the co-publication data functions as an aid to understanding the paths of knowledge exchanged between foreign and Chinese players in the scientific field. The analysis presented in this article has shown that Chinese academic knowledge network becomes larger and denser over time, showing properties of scale-free network topologies. The probability of having a 211-university in a path between any two nodes in the network doubled from 1998 to 2004. Chinese elite universities have a strong and increasingly dominant position connecting China to the global knowledge system than public research organizations. The decreasing influence of public research organizations in the knowledge network can be seen as a remarkable shift from the pre-reform period in the university and science sector. All universities apart from the 211-project universities are comparatively detached from the knowledge creation process, and this marginal position is becoming more pronounced. Furthermore, although Beijing is still as the core of the knowledge network in China, but the disparity of core-periphery shows a narrowing trend. The evolution of China's academic knowledge network should be due to the active integration effects of the elite universities and the trickle-down effect of global knowledge systems. Clearly, the integration of the Chinese system into the global scene is following a unique path, but there is still a lot to learn for other large developing economies such as India, Brazil, and Russia. Top-down political programs that foster the introduction of elements of competition produce strong guidelines for the concentration on key development sectors, suggesting the pooling of resources into these selected sectors, while comprehensive innovative talent initiatives can be used to propel these economies into a relevant position in the global science arena.
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    广州重大交通设施建设与空间结构演化研究
    林琳, 卢道典
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1050-1055.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1050
    摘要   PDF (429KB)
    1949年以来广州实施重大交通设施项目,带动城市空间结构形态发生较大变化,主要可分为3个阶段:① 新中国成立至改革开放的30 a间着重实施了以城市道路和桥梁为主体的交通设施项目,使广州形成了沿珠江前航道"带状分散组团状"的空间结构形态;② 改革开放后的20 a间,广州重点实施了快速路和高速公路为主体的交通设施项目,使城市空间沿珠江前航道向东和白云山西侧向北拓展,空间结构形态呈现"L形三大组团状";③ 2000年后的10 a间,番禺、花都"撤市设区"使广州市区范围大大拓展,新白云国际机场、广州铁路客运南站(高铁车站)、南沙深水港、地铁等重大交通设施和轨道交通设施项目在更大范围内进行合理布局和建设,促使了广州"多中心、网络状"空间结构的形成。
    Major transportation facilities projects implemented since 1949 have brought about significant changes in Guangzhou's urban spatial structure and urban form. There are three stages of changes. During the first 30 a after the founding of the People's Republic of China, the government has paid much attention to the construction of the major urban roads and bridges, forming a spatial structure of "stripes of dispersed groups" along the Zhujiang River in Guangzhou. After two decades of reform and openning-up, many efforts have been made to construct urban expressways, resulting in urban expansion along the Zhujiang River and the Baiyun Mountain. The spatial structure of Guangzhou thus changed into an "L" shape comprised of three major groups. During the first decade of the 21st century, Panyu County and Huadu County were merged into Guangzhou metropolis. A series of transportation facilities, such as Baiyun International Airport, South Railway Station of Guangzhou, Nansha Deep-water Port, MTR system lines, were deployed and constructed in the expanded Guangzhou metropolitan area, forming a "multi-center, multi-axis network" spatial structure. During the process, the construction of major transportation facilities has projected significant influences on Guangzhou's urban spatial structure. The road traffic framework first guided urban development into stripes shape, the rapid traffic system then adjusted the urban spatial structure into "L" shape; and large-scale facilities and track transportation facilities fundamentally altered the existing structure into a "multi-center, multi-axis network" in accordance to the spatial organization of the rapid expanding metropolitan area. The emphases of transportation facilities construction varied in different stage of urban developmen. 1) In the growing period of the city, the emphases of transport facilities construction were palced on the infrastructures, such as major urban roads and bridges. 2) During the rapid urban development period, the emphases of transportation facility constructions were rapid traffic system. And 3) in the stable development period, the emphases of transportation facilities are to foster a new growing pole and development axis through constructing regional large-scale facilities and track transportation facilities. By that, the major transportation facility construction and urban spatial structure development form a reciprocal relationship and an effective feedback loop.
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    北京城市中低收入者日常活动时空间特征分析
    张艳, 柴彦威
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1056-1064.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1056
    摘要   PDF (895KB)
    转型期城市空间制度性及结构性变化以及住房、交通等公共服务设施的配置,往往因忽略城市中低收入群体日常活动的时空需求而使其陷入可达性及移动性困境,从而导致城市社会不公平问题。个体日常活动行为的时空特征反映了其对城市空间利用的时空需求,是测度可达性与移动性的基本指标,也是衡量社会排斥、社会剥夺、居住隔离的新维度。采用2007年北京城市居民活动日志调查数据,基于时间地理学对微观个体日常活动的分析框架,借助GIS三维可视化技术,从生活时间分配、工作与非工作活动的时空间分布格局、活动空间测度、移动性等方面,对北京城市中低收入者日常活动的时空间特征进行系统分析。通过城市中低收入者日常活动的时空需求研究,为城市空间优化和时间管理提供参考依据。
    The dramatic institutional and spatial transformation has brought great challenges for the planning and provision of public housing and transportation in terms of social sustainability. In the western cities, the urban disadvantages such as the female, the elderly, the disabled, and the low-income groups have been "entrapped" in certain spatial territory with lower level of accessibility and mobility in their daily life as a result of the urban sprawl, suburbanization of jobs and other public facilities, the institutional housing segregation, as well as the deficiency of the public transit. In China, there have been great social transformation and spatial restructuring driven by the dissolve of Danwei compound, land use separation, industrial suburbanization, and residential relocation during the process of market-oriented transition. As a consequence, individuals, especially the urban middle and low-income groups, would face great challenges of decreasing accessibility and mobility in their daily life which could in turn result in the decline of the life quality. Aiming at discovering the spatio-temporal demand of the urban middle and low-income groups and promoting the social equity in urban policy and planning, this paper explores the spatio-temporal activity pattern of the urban middle and low-income residents in Beijing from the perspectives of the temporal allocation and spatial distribution of both work and non-work activities, observed daily activity space and mobility based on the activity diary survey of 600 households, 1 119 individuals of Beijing in 2007. Aided by the GIS technique and tools, the 3D geovisualization of individual's spatio-temporal path and the spatio-temporal activity density surface are introduced to explore and compare the spatial and temporal pattern of the middle and low-income groups and their counterpart group. It is found that the social transformation and spatial restructuring in urban China has exerted obviously more negative impact on the daily life of urban middle and low-income groups than their other groups. Firstly, the whole daily activity pattern show the trend of "fragmentation" due to the existing of large amount of out-of-home, non-employment activities during the day time. Also, the middle and low-income have relatively shorter work hours than their counterparts in the workday while they have relatively longer work hours than their counterparts in the weekend. Secondly, there is no strong rhythm of their work time, and their work activities relatively dispersed in the large spatial extent. Also, most of their non-work activities are located within the 1-km distance from their home. Thirdly, the middle and low-income group has lower level of mobility than other groups. They have more single purpose trips, and more frequently use the non-motorized mode such as walk and bicycle in their daily life. Besides, they have much smaller observed activity space measured by convex polygon. Finally, it is argued that much more attention should be paid to the accessibility and mobility consequences of provision the public housings for the low-income group.
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    中国二氧化硫减排分析及减排潜力
    李名升, 张建辉, 罗海江, 林兰钰, 李茜, 张殷俊
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1065-1071.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1065
    摘要   PDF (382KB)
    SO2是中国主要污染物总量控制指标之一。分析SO2排放变化和影响因素对今后SO2及其他污染物减排具有借鉴意义。在分析近10 a来尤其是"十一五"期间中国SO2减排趋势的基础上,通过构建对数平均权重模型和减排潜力模型分析SO2减排的影响因素和减排潜力,并对"十二五"SO2排放进行情景分析。结果表明:SO2排放量呈先上升后下降的变化趋势,"十一五"减排目标顺利实现;2005~2009年,中国工业SO2排放量平均每年减少65×104 t,其中,经济增长平均每年促进SO2排放量增长315×104 t,技术进步则平均每年使SO2排放量减少344×104 t,行业结构因素平均每年减少SO2排放量36×104 t;中国SO2排放强度存在着绝对趋同和条件趋同,在条件趋同下,2009年中国各地区SO2减排空间为738×104 t,相当于当年SO2排放量的1/3;"十二五"期间,若工业SO2减排目标为8%~10%,则其去除率在2015年末需达到74%~80%,减排形势将依然严峻。
    SO2 is one of total quality control of pollutions. It provides the theory and realistic reference meaning for pollutions reduction to investigate the changing trend and influential factors of SO2. The SO2 emission data are from China Environment Statistical Yearbook and the emission trend and reduction trend of SO2 are showed firstly in the paper. Then, Logarithmic mean weight divisia method model and reduction model are applied to analyzing the influential factors effects and SO2 reduction. The main results could be summarized as follows: 1) The industrial emission of SO2 kept rising from 2000 to 2006 and descended in recent four years. Changes in the three regions of China were similar to national trend. However, the proportion of western region in whole emission increased in the past ten years. 2) The SO2 reduction goal in "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" had been achieved. The industrial SO2 made a greater contribution for reduction. Reduction volume in east region was the most. From the view of technique, it was the main method to increase SO2 removal rate. 3) The average growth of industrial SO2 was-65?104 t. The scale of economic development, the industry structure and emission intensity had different contributions to the change, which were 315?104 t,-344?104 t,-36?104 t,respectively. 4) Conditional convergence and absolute convergence obviously exit for the SO2 emission intensity among provinces in China. The SO2 reduction potential of different regions in conditional convergence would be 738?104 t (equivalent to 1/3 of SO2 emission in 2009). 5) If the reduction goal was 8%-10%, the industrial SO2 removal rate must reach 74%-80%. The reduction situation would be severe. It was of vital importance in SO2 reduction to promote the change in the pattern of economic growth.
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    基于STIRPAT模型的中国能源压力分析——基于空间计量经济学模型的视角
    姜磊, 季民河
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1072-1077.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1072
    摘要   PDF (336KB)
    21世纪的中国已成为世界第一大能源消费国,迅猛而粗放的经济发展对能源的需求和依赖倍增,这给能源生产和供给带来巨大压力。由于产业结构和区位的异同,各省的能耗呈现空间异质和空间趋同;部分能耗通过空间效应来解释,可以改正传统能耗模型的估计偏差。采用能源消费总量作为环境压力的衡量指标,以STIRPAT模型为基础,将能源消费的空间效应纳入到STIRPAT模型进行空间计量分析。结果发现,中国省域能源消费在空间上存在依赖性,人口、社会富裕度和第二产业比重与能源消费皆为正相关,随着人口、社会富裕度和第二产业比重的增加,对能源消费的弹性系数逐渐增加。适当地控制人口、社会倡导低碳生活以及节能降耗均能缓解能源压力,同时制定差异化的区域能源消费调控措施也很有必要。
    China is now claimed to be the largest energy consumer among all countries in the world, as it more than ever needs energy to sustain its consecutive two-digit annual GDP growth. The huge demand for energy has had a stronger impact on energy production and supply in the country. The distribution of energy consumption among provinces and cities may conceal significant spatial effects that each location has exerted onto its neighbors. When taken it into account in the analysis, these spatial effects may be used to rectify the estimation bias inherent in the traditional energy consumption model. This paper employed the total energy consumption as an index of environmental impacts to evaluate the spatial effect of energy consumption in China based on the STIRPAT model. The energy consumption data of all regions in China was first examined via the Moran's I index for the existence of spatial dependence. For calculating the index, a contiguity rule was employed to establish the spatial weight matrix for the regions. The exploratory analysis results in a value of 0.194 for Moran's I at the significant level of 0.05, which indicates a tendency of spatial clustering of similar consumption values. This warranted further analyses on a confirmatory nature. Two spatial econometric regression models based on spatial lag (SLM) and spatial error (SEM) respectively were then established to analyze the impact of several relevant factors on energy consumption. Results from these two models were compared on the basis of several statistical tests, and the SEM was selected to fit the data. The goodness of fit of the SEM reached 0.898, a 3% improvement over 0.871 of the adjusted R-squared resulting from the traditional OLS model. The results indicated that the average energy consumption between the years of 2006 and 2008 did present spatial interdependence to some degree among Chinese provinces, and the energy consumption behavior was collectively influenced by the internal factors of the province under investigation and its neighbors. There was a significant positive correlation between energy consumption and population, social affluence, and secondary industry. That is, the elastic coefficient of energy consumption increased gradually as these influential factors increased. A set of governmental countermeasures are necessary: moderate efforts should be made to revise birth control targets, civic investment should be increased to advocate a low-carbon lifestyle in China, and new and energy-saving technologies should be rapidly adopted in the Chinese industrial system. Above all, the strategic planning and policy making for the long-term reduction of energy consumption should consider the spatial interaction mechanism of energy consumption among different jurisdictions in the country.
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    19世纪以来中国朝鲜族人口迁移分布及聚居区形成研究
    张洪岩, 王蕾, 刘德赢
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1078-1083.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1078
    摘要   PDF (693KB)
    基于历史文献和史料,利用地理信息系统技术,对19世纪中期至2000年中国朝鲜族人口数据进行分析,阐述其人口迁移特征及聚居区分布格局。朝鲜族大规模迁移至中国东北始于19世纪后期。1949年以前,朝鲜族主要分布在东北;解放初人口数变化不大,朝鲜战争爆发后东北朝鲜族人口小幅增加,改革开放后朝鲜族逐渐南迁,全国各省均有分布,传统聚居区人数减少。朝鲜族的阶段迁移导致其人口再分布现象及聚居区规模的变化。朝鲜族早期迁移形成北满、南满、东满、东边道和关内五个聚居区;延边朝鲜族自治州成立之初,全国近半数朝鲜族聚居于此,聚居规模较稳定;改革开放后,朝鲜族由传统聚居区逐渐向南迁移,形成以北京、青岛、上海、深圳为中心的新聚居区。探讨朝鲜族的人口迁移规律及聚居区分布格局,为促进朝鲜族人口与社会的协调发展提供借鉴。
    As an ethnic minority, the migration of Chinese Korean nationality has been for a long period. The formation and characteristics of Chinese Korean migration were analyzed based on Chinese Korean population data using GIS from the mid-19th century to the year 2000. The early migration from their native land to the Northeast China through Tumen River and Yalu River with a large-scale started at the late of the 19th century. Before the People’s Republic of China was founded, Chinese Korean nationality mainly distributed in the Northeast China. Just after liberation, population of them changed little, but increased after the Korean War broke out. Since China’s reform and openning-up, another large-scale Chinese Korean migration moved to South China and distributed all over the China, whose population in the early settlements decreased gradually. The migration of Chinese Korean nationality inevitably led to the population redistribution and the changes of settlements’ scale. Five main settlements formed before 1949, referred to as settlements of Nanman, Beiman, Dongman, Dongbiandao and Guannei. Almost half of the Korean Chinese lived in the Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture since it was founded and the settlements kept stable there. After China’s reform and openning-up, some new Chinese Korean nationality settlements were formed with Beijing, Qingdao, Shanghai, Shenzhen as their centers. Migration of the Chinese Korean nationality and the distribution pattern promoted the coordinated development of population and society of minority migration among cities in China.
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    基于改进生态足迹模型的中国31个省级区域生态承载力实证研究
    张可云, 傅帅雄, 张文彬
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1084-1089.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1084
    摘要   PDF (328KB)
    发达地区通过向欠发达地区转移污染型行业,导致污染由发达地区向欠发达地区转移。同样,在资源的开发利用过程中,生态破坏在区域之间也存在着明显的间接转移。一个地区使用了大量的生态资源,但其绝大部分资源都可能是靠输入,在这种情况下,输入资源地区的生态系统受到了很好的保护,而输出资源地区的生态系统却承受了巨大的生态压力。通过实证研究,应用改进生态足迹模型分析比较了2008年中国31个省市区生态承载力,并讨论了区域间生态破坏转移问题,为实现以生态文明为核心价值取向的区域协调发展战略目标提供决策参考。
    During the process of regional industrial transfer and industrial restructuring, the evolution of regional industrial structure sharply contradicts with decreasing of resources and lowing of environmental carrying capacity because of lacking industrial economic and ecological efficiency from the overall view. The pollution was transferred from the developed regions to the developing regions caused by the transfer of polluting industries. Similarly, in the process of development and utilization of resources, conspicuous transfer of ecological destruction exists among regions. A province uses a large number of ecological resources, but most of which are likely to rely on imports, in this case, the ecological system of this province has been protected, but the ecological system of provinces which export the resources are under great ecological stress. Through the empirical studies, this paper analyzed and compared the ecological carrying capacity of 31 provinces of China in 2008, based on the improved ecological footprint model, and discussed the problem of transfer of ecological destruction between regions. The empirical analysis shows that the ecological damage transferred clearly among the regions, the ecological system in the eastern region of China has been well protected, while the pressure of ecological system is increasing in the central and western areas of China where export resources. Therefore, the economic development mode for various areas should be further changed, and the the regional policy made by central government should be further improved.
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    地理学“空间分析导论”课程设置研究
    赵永, 孔云峰
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1090-1096.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1090
    摘要   PDF (407KB)
    空间分析是地理学和其他相关学科的重要研究手段与方法,其重要性日益引起关注。结合1960年代以来空间分析的发展脉络及各时期的典型方法,在对国内外40多所高校、组织与机构的空间分析课程大纲对比研究和教学实践的基础上,提出了“空间分析导论”课程的教学大纲、具体内容和实习软件等问题,最后对空间分析课程设置提出几点建议:① 拟定空间分析课程66学时左右,其中至少12学时左右的上机实习,实习软件可以针对不同的数据类型选用ArcGIS、GeoDa和R。② 在地理学相关专业或其他学科领域的本科高年级开设入门级的空间分析导论课程,之后,根据具体情况在研究生阶段开设比如"地统计学"、"空间模型与建模"等专题课程。③ 为进一步完善国内空间分析课程教材,可考虑选择引进国外相关著作,并筛选、开发相关的教学案例,编写详细的上机实习操作指导。
    In geography and related disciplines, spatial analysis is an important research tool or method, which has attracted increasing attention in geography and many other subjects, such as ecology, public health, environments, crimes, economics, etc. Based on the concepts, contents of spatial analysis, considering the different development stages and characteristics of spatial analysis since the 1960s, this article studies more than 40 colleges, organizations or universities' syllabus of spatial analysis at home and abroad. Together with the teaching practice of spatial analysis, the authors suggest the "Introduction to Spatial Analysis" course syllabus and the related specific contents, such as the detailed contents, the selection of practice software, class hours, etc. Accordingly, some advice on the teaching of spatial analysis in China are taken: 1) The specific syllabus should include: the introduction (including types and characteristics of spatial/attribute data, spatial autocorrelation, modifiable areal unit problem, edge effects, ecological fallacy), analysis based on maps (including overlay analysis, buffer analysis, Voronoi graph, thiessen polygon, network analysis, optimal path analysis, flow analysis and modeling, location-allocation analysis), geometry analysis (including centrography, distance/area measure, etc.), exploratory spatial data analysis (including visualization, scatter plot, stem-leaf plot, histogram, box plot), spatial point pattern analysis (including completely spatial randomness, quadrat analysis, kernel density estimation, nearest neighbor method, G function, F function, K/L function, Monte Carlo simulation, and some related test methods), area objects and spatial autocorrelation (including spatial weight matrix, global statistics, local statistics, joint count statistics, Moran's I, Geary's C and Getis'G/Gi*, local indicators of spatial association), spatial interpolation and geostatistics (including first law of geography, surface modeling, stochastic/determine modeling, inverse distance weighted interpolation, multinomial interpolation, spline interpolation, regionalized variable, semivariogram, ordinary Kriging, simple Kriging, and other Kriging methods), and new approaches, e.g. neural network (NN), evolutionary computation, cellular automata (CA), agent-based modeling (ABM), etc. in spatial analysis. 2) For the practice software, more than one type of software should be used in the class, in which ArcGIS, and free software GeoDa and R are recommend. Some other software about NN, CA, etc. may also be introduced, if time permitting. And 3) the class hours and practice hours are suggested that all the time should be at least 66 h, of which at least 12 h are practice hours with computer.
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    基于MODIS与AMSR-E数据的中国6大牧区草原积雪遥感监测研究
    李金亚, 杨秀春, 徐斌, 曹云刚, 覃志豪, 金云翔, 赵莉娜
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1097-1104.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1097
    摘要   PDF (1113KB)
    内蒙古、新疆、西藏、青海、甘肃和四川的草原区这6大牧区是中国重要的畜牧业生产基地,也是雪灾频发的区域,及时、准确地获取6大牧区雪情时空特征对于防灾减灾,指导畜牧业生产有着重要的现实意义。光学遥感与微波遥感各具优缺点,综合运用MODIS和AMSR-E数据构建草原积雪遥感监测模型,以日为监测单元,以旬为多日合成时段,对中国6大牧区在2008年10月上旬至2009年3月下旬间的草原积雪覆盖范围进行监测,并对监测结果进行检验,以此说明MODIS与AMSR-E数据在雪灾监测方面协同监测的可行性,为其他雪盖遥感监测研究提供参考。
    The six main pastoral areas (Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai, Sichuan, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia) are the important production base of animal husbandry in China, and also the frequent snow disaster areas. To obtain snow conditions of these pastoral areas timely and accurately is valuable for disaster prevention and reduction. With higher spatial resolution and stronger interpretation, optical remote sensing is better for snow cover identification, but it is vulnerable to cloudy weather. Microwave remote sensing is not easy affected by cloud, but identification accuracy is not high. In this paper, we integrated the two kinds of data to identify snow covers. The MODIS data (optical) are used in cloud-free areas, while AMSR-E data (microwave) are used in the rest areas. According to the method, each single day is defined as monitoring unit, and every ten days compose the image combining unit. The monitoring area covers the six main pastoral areas of China. The monitoring duration is from October 1st, 2008 to March 31st, 2009. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) The grasslands Northern Xinjiang, eastern Tibet, south-west of Qinghai, central Gansu, northern Sichuan, the Xilin Gol, and Hulunbeier of Inner Mongolia are the areas with frequent snow cover. 2) The monitoring area possesses the smallest snow cover in December 10th to 20th, while it has the biggest snow cover in January 1st to 10th. 3) During the monitoring period, the fluctuation of snow-cover area can be concluded in three types: Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have the single peaks, Tibet and Qinghai have three peaks and three valleys, and Sichuan and Gansu are relatively stable.
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    中国北方地区四季的时空演变特征
    严登华, 耿思敏, 罗先香, 秦天玲
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1105-1110.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1105
    摘要   PDF (836KB)
    利用中国北方地区及周边58个气象站点1960~2009年的逐日气温资料,结合气候趋势系数和GIS平台,以5 d滑动平均温度作为划分依据,对中国北方地区近50 a来四季的开始时间、长度以及积温的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明,北方地区四季演变呈一定的径向、纬向和海陆分布规律,且由于地理隔离,存在不连续的高值或低值中心,但整体上呈现以下特征:春夏起始日期提前,秋季推迟,冬季整体变化不大;多数地区春季、秋季和冬季变短,夏季变长,严冬比例减小;多数地区春季温度降低,夏季、秋季和冬季温度升高,严冬平均温度升高。
    The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of start date, length and accumulated temperatures of the four seasons in Northern China are analyzed based on daily temperature of 1960-2009 from 56 meteorological stations. Seasons are divided by 5 days’ moving average temperatures. Climate tendency coefficients and GIS are used to analyze seasonal variation characteristics. The results show that: springs and summers are coming earlier; autumns are coming later while the start dates of winter have little changes. In most areas, springs, autumns and winters are becoming shorter while summers are longer and the proportion of severe winters reduced. Temperatures in springs are lower while autumns, winters and severe winters are warmer, and summers are much more hot.
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    近20年来沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价
    谭丽荣, 陈珂, 王军, 俞立中
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1111-1117.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1111
    摘要   PDF (585KB)
    采用1990~2009年风暴潮灾害损失数据,选择中国东部沿海地区11个省市为研究对象,借鉴沿海脆弱性指数(Coastal Vulnerability Index,CVI)方法的评估思路,构建风暴潮灾害脆弱性指数SSVI(Storm Surge Vulnerability Index,SSVI),采用加法模型评价中国沿海省区风暴潮灾害的物理脆弱性。结果表明:沿海地区风暴潮脆弱性存在较大年际变化;高和很高脆弱性等级主要分布于东南沿海各省区,低和很低脆弱性等级主要分别于北部沿海各省区,而中等脆弱性等级空间分布则变化较大。
    Firstly, the storm surge disaster vulnerability index (Storm Surge Vulnerability Index, SSVI) is built by learning form the assessment method of Coastal Vulnerability Index (Coastal Vulnerability Index, CVI. Then, physical vulnerability of storm surge is assessed using additive model, according to the storm surge disaster loss data during 1990 to 2009 of eleven provinces in the coastal region, which are Liaoning Province, Hebei Province, Tianjin City, Shandong Province, Jiangsu Province, Shanghai City, Zhejiang Province, Fujian Province, Guangdong Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Hainan Province.The results show that there is a large inter-annual variation of the vulnerability of coastal storm surges; the high and very high level of physical vulnerability are mainly distributed in southeastern coastal provinces, the low and very low level, in northern coastal provinces, respectively, while distribution of the middle level changes greatly.
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    1961~2008年山东省极端降水事件的变化趋势分析
    姜德娟, 李志, 王昆
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1118-1124.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1118
    摘要   PDF (1376KB)
    利用山东省1961~2008年逐日降水资料,采用百分位值法定义了极端降水事件的阈值,然后统计出极端降水事件的频次、降水量、强度和年最大日降水量,并对其空间分布和时间趋势进行分析。结果表明,山东省极端降水事件阈值的空间分布存在明显的地域差异,总体上以泰山为中心向周边逐渐减小;频次的空间差异较小,基本在18 d/a左右;极端降水量、强度和年最大日降水量的空间特征基本相似,总体呈自东南向西北递减的态势,且高值中心均分布于泰山一带。48 a来,除降水强度,极端降水事件的其他3个指标呈弱减少趋势,并于1965年左右发生了突变现象;相对中西部,胶东半岛的减少趋势更为显著。48 a来,极端降水事件的4个指标均存在明显的年代际特征,而且还存在准11 a的震荡周期,并以1984年为中间轴呈左右对称分布。
    Based on daily precipitation data of 18 meteorological stations over Shandong Province during 1961~2008, the extreme precipitation thresholds were determined for different stations by the centesimal value method, and then, four indices including frequency, annual amount, intensity and annual daily maximum amount of extreme precipitation events were counted and their spatial characteristics and temporary trends were analyzed. The results showed that the extreme precipitation thresholds indicated the remarkable regional difference and gradually decreased from the center of the Taishan Mountain to outside. The frequency of extreme precipitation events was about 18 d/a with a sight regional difference. The spatial characteristics of annual amount, intensity and annual daily maximum amount of extreme precipitation events were similar, i.e., they were all characterized with a decrease from the southeast to northwest of Shandong Province and their high-value centers were located in the Taishan Mountain. For recent 48 years, 4 indices except intensity of extreme precipitation events showed a slight decreasing trend, which was more significant in Jiaodong peninsular, and moreover, the abruption changes in the year of about 1965 occurred for these three indices. However, the intensity of extreme precipitation events showed no obvious trend and no abruption change. Four indices of extreme precipitation events all indicated the remarkable interdecadal variability and furthermore, the qusia-11 year oscillating period existed for these four indices during 1961~2008, which were symmetrically distributed surrounding the middle-axis in the year of 1984.
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    基于信息扩散理论的中国西部地区地震风险评估
    游珍, 封志明, 杨格格, 杨艳昭
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1125-1130.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1125
    摘要   PDF (484KB)
    利用全国地震目录数据库,系统梳理建国以来中国西部地区5.0级以上地震信息;利用信息扩散理论,从年最大震级和各级地震灾害年频次两个方面对西部12省、市、自治区的地震灾害进行风险评估。在此基础上,将风险估计离散值进行曲线拟合,系统评价中国西部地震最为多发5省区的地震风险分布趋势及差异,定量揭示中国西部地区地震风险,为西部地区地震防灾减灾提供技术支持和决策建议。
    Based on the national earthquake catalog database,the paper sorted out more than 5.0Ms earthquake information in western region of China; using information diffusion theory,the paper assessed the seismic risk of western twelve procinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in two aspects of annual earthquake frequency and annual maximum earthquake.On this basis,curved fitting the discrete values of the risk estimate,made a systematic review for the distribution trends and differences of seismic risk in the five provinces of China which are the most earthquake-prone,revealed quantificationally?the seismic risk in western China.Provided technical support and policy recommendations for earthquake prevention and mitigation and policy recommendations in western region of China.
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    渭干河灌区地下水埋深与矿化度时空分布动态
    吐尔逊·艾山, 塔西甫拉提·特依拜, 买买提·阿扎提, 买买提依明·买买提
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1131-1137.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1131
    摘要   PDF (518KB)
    以新疆渭干河灌区为例,利用渭干河灌区38眼监测井的1997~2007年期间地下水埋深和地下水矿化度数据,对渭干河灌区地下水位及地下水矿化度的年际变化、季节变化动态及空间分布特征及其变化原因进行初步的分析。结果表明:11 a期间,研究区春季地下水位最高,研究区地下水位从灌区上部往下部或边缘有明显的上升特征。地下水矿化度的整体趋势为灌区上游的矿化度值较低,灌区下游和边缘地区的矿化度较高。灌区年均地下水位和地下水矿化度总体上有下降趋势。
    Taking Xinjiang Weigan River irrigation district as an example, 38 observation wells’ data from 1997 to 2007 of groundwater depth and groundwater mineralization were used in the paper to analyze annual change of groundwater depth and the groundwater mineralization of Weigan River irrigation district, and their seasonal dynamics and spatial distribution. The results showed that in the 11 years period, the highest groundwater level appeared in spring. The groundwater level rose significantly from the top of irrigation district to the periphery of the oasis. The overall trend of groundwater mineralization is that groundwater mineralization is relatively low in the upper reaches of the irrigation district, and relatively high in the lower edge and downstream of the irrigation district. The annual groundwater depth and groundwater mineralization generally decreased in the irrigation district.
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    汛期洪水弃水与水土流失耦合风险关系分析
    李勋贵, 魏霞
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1138-1143.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1138
    摘要   PDF (501KB)
    暴雨洪水是导致流域水土流失的一个重要因素,水土流失又会引起径流泥沙含量的增加,使汛期洪水弃水量加大,成为汛期洪水灾害发生的重要原因。以泾河流域为例,根据信息熵理论和USLE模型,提出约束信息量因子BI和水土流失耦合风险概念及其计算式,建立汛期洪水弃水系数与水土流失耦合风险等级之间的关系式,结果表明:①泾河张家山站以上流域1986、1995和2000年的水土流失耦合风险等级呈现出递减的趋势,分别为2.544、2.542和2.472;②汛期洪水弃水系数与水土流失耦合风险等级之间存在着显著正相关关系。
    Rainstorm flood is one important factor resulting in soil and water loss of watershed. The soil and water loss can cause the increase of sediment concentration in runoff, which will add more surplus flood in flood season and consequently become an important reason for the occurrence of flood disaster. A factor of binding information (BI) was presented based on the information entropy theory. The BI is able to describe the uncertainty degree (i.e., risk value) hiding in system before events happen. According to the BI values of different controllable-observable objectives (COOs), the changing situations of uncertainty degree that events evolve from a COO to another one can be uncovered. So the BI is convenient to test risk changing of soil and water loss and reflect its evolution trend. In addition, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) has a preferable merit to describe and maintain the details of soil and water loss. Considering these characteristics of the USLE and BI, a notion of risk, coupling risk of soil and water loss, was proposed. The coupling risk is defined as the superposition results multiplied the BI by the factors in USLE. It can not only maintain the details of soil and water loss, but also describe the evolution processes of soil and water loss risk. On the basis of the presented coupling risk, a function relationship between sediment concentration in runoff and coupling risk grade of soil and water loss is established. A maximum rating method is employed to calculate the coefficient of surplus floodwater in flood season based on the independent variable of sediment concentration in runoff. Therefore, the relation between the coefficient of surplus floodwater and the coupling risk grade of soil and water loss is achieved with the intermediate variable of sediment concentration in runoff. A case study related to Jinghe River Basin with representative characteristics of floodwater resources utilization and soil and water loss has been performed. Results demonstrate that: 1) the coupling risk grades of soil and water loss for 1986, 1995 and 2000 at the upper watershed of the controlled section of Zhangjiashan Station are 2.5437, 2.5421 and 2.4722, respectively, which shows a total decrease trend of the coupling risk of soil and water loss in the basin; 2) there is a prominent relationship at the confidence level of 0.01 between sediment concentration in runoff (y) and coupling risk grade of soil and water loss (x) as y=0.0108exp(2.4211x). The square of correlation coefficient R is equal to 0.4037 (R2= 0.4037). The higher the coupling risk grade (x) is, the larger the sediment concentration in runoff (y) is, vice versa; and 3) a prominent function relationship at 0.01 confidence level exists between the coefficient of surplus floodwater in flood season (y) and the coupling risk grade of soil and water loss (x) as y =0.0229exp(0.9937x)R2=0.3878. The bigger the coupling risk (x) is, the larger the coefficient of surplus floodwater (y) is, the larger the amount of surplus floodwater in flood season is, and the greater the flood disaster risk is. The results can provide a reference for analysis on relationship between the risks of watershed soil and water loss and flood disaster.
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    近50年东北地区生态地理界线的代际变化
    杜海波, 吴正方, 李明
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1144-1150.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1144
    摘要   PDF (800KB)
    以吉良(Kira)的热量指数(温暖指数WI和寒冷指数CI)和徐文铎的湿度指数HI为指标,以10 a为尺度定量研究1961~2007年东北地区4条主要生态地理界线变化。在此基础上分析东北地区生态地理界线变化对气候变化的响应。结果表明:东北地区1961 ~ 2007年整体上纬向生态地理界线向高纬(垂直带向上)移动,经向生态地理界线向东移动,但阶段性上表现出波动性移动。东北地区生态地理区域界线从整体上位置、移动速度的变化和阶段性位置、移动速度的变化都很好响应气候变化。它们对水热等生态气候基本要素十分敏感。
    Hydrothermal changes caused by climate change are one of the important causes for eco-system change, whose long-term changes and short-term fluctuations are essential causes of formation, distribution and change of eco-geographical boundaries. In this paper, the changes of the four main eco-geographical boundaries were quantitatively studied based on the heat index (warmth index WI and coldness index CI) firstly developed by Kira and the humidity index HI put forward by Xu Wenduo for each 10 years of Northeast China in 1961–2007. Then their responses to climate change were analyzed in Northeast China. The results indicated that zonal eco-geographical boundaries have been moving to higher latitude (shifting upwards vertical zone) and meridional eco-geographical boundaries have been moving eastward in the whole sequence, but the movements of stages were volatility. The changes of eco-geographical boundaries expressed in distribution and moving speed responded to climate change well, not only in the whole sequence but also in the stages. They are very sensitive to the basic elements of eco-climatic such as hydrothermal, etc., and it may be a new idea to research climate change by the changes of eco-geographical boundaries.
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    渭河流域汉代洪涝灾害研究
    张冲, 赵景波, 张淑源
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1151-1156.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1151
    摘要   PDF (330KB)
    通过对渭河流域汉代(202 a B.P.~220 A.D.)历史资料的搜集和整理,对该区域该时期洪涝灾害等级、洪涝灾害的时间变化及成因进行研究。结果表明,在汉代的423 a中,渭河流域共发生洪涝灾害109次,平均每 3.9 a发生1次。轻度涝灾,中等涝灾,大涝灾和特大涝灾分别占到洪涝灾害总数的44.0%,24.8%,22.9%和 8.3%。渭河流域汉代存在两个洪涝灾害多发期,分别出现在49~10 a B.P.和91~130 A.D.。渭河流域汉代轻度和中度涝灾存在3~4 a的周期,大涝灾存在20 a左右的周期,特大涝灾存在着60~70 a左右的周期。
    Based on the historical data, this paper studied the disaster grade, temporal change and the causes of disasters of Weihe River watershed during the Han Dynasty (202 a B.C.-220 A.D.). The results showed that during the 423 years of the Han Dynasty, the floods happened 109 times in Weihe River, with averagely once every 3.9 years. Mild floods, middle floods, great floods and serious floods respectively accounted for 44.0%, 24.8%, 22.9% and 8.3% in the total numbers of floods. There were two flood-prone periods in Weihe River watershed of the Han Dynasty, i.e. from 49 a B.C. to 10 a B.C. and from 91 A.D. to 130 A.D.. Mild flood and the middle flood disasters happened once 3-4 years in Weihe River watershed during the Han Dynasty, great flood did once about 20 years, and serious flood did once 60-70 years.
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    书评
    《东北地区矿业城市产业生态系统适应性研究》评介
    沈正平
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (9): 1157-1157.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1157
    摘要   PDF (109KB)
    适应(adaptation)一词,不同学科对其有不同解释。就本意来说,地理学家普遍认为"适应"是生物有机体的生存能力提高、并使后代超过其他原种型的表型特征的而做的改变。近年来,适应作为一种新概念,频繁出现于全球环境变化及可持续性科学研究领域,实施适应性战略已成为人类社会生态系统面对不可避免的变化所作出的明智选择。
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