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ISSN 1000-0690
CN 22-1124/P
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  • 地理科学
      2011年, 第31卷, 第11期 刊出日期:1997-11-20 上一期    下一期
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    论文
    中国全新世暖期降水格局的集成重建
    方修琦, 刘翠华, 侯光良
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1287-1292.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1287
    摘要   PDF (783KB)
    根据国内外公开发表的各类文献,搜集整理中国全新世暖期6.5~5.5 ka B.P.的定量古降水记录,采用空间集成重建方法对原始记录进行重复记录归并和空间集成分析,获得271个地点的有效降水记录,据此重建中国全新世暖期的降水格局。结果表明:全新世暖期,中国年降水量普遍高出现代50~300 mm;降水绝对增幅以长江中下游地区最大,增加250~300 mm,向南北递减,东南沿海约增加100 mm,至西北地区只增加约50 mm;相对增幅从东南沿海向西北内陆递增,东南沿海仅高出现代的15%~25%,西北及青藏高原地区可高出现代1倍左右。
    Based on numbers of published papers, 357 items quantitatively reconstructed precipitation were collected in the Holocene Megathermal (6.5-5.5 ka B. P.) at 285 sites in China. Spatial synthesis method is assigned to assess reliability of the reconstructed results in order to weed out the unreasonable data and to reduce the uncertainty. After the spatial synthesis analysis,271 items available precipitation records have been gotten to reconstructed the annual precipitation of China in the Holocene Megathermal. The results show that, in the Holocene Megathermal,annual precipitation was higher than today by about 50-300 mm. The increase of precipitation had significant regional differences. The maximum increase was 250-300 mm in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The increase was about 100 mm in the southeast coastal area, about 100-150mm in North China, and about 50 mm in the most northwest of China. The relative increase was about 15%-25% higher than today in southeast coastal area, but it was about double than today in Xinjiang and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.
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    社会性网络服务社区中人际节点空间分布特征及地缘因素分析
    路紫, 王文婷
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1292-1300.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1292
    摘要   PDF (1030KB)
    以开心网15个大学群为案例,应用信息熵和度分布两种方法,研究了社会性网络服务社区中人际节点空间分布特征及其地缘因素的影响。人际节点是以"好友"关系建立的链接来表达的,研究数据包括通过"成员"体现的好友和通过"话题"体现的好友2个层次,以便可以将虚拟的可能关系变为虚拟现实的确定关系。研究结果如下:①各大学群中好友空间分布信息熵值均较低,即空间分布不均匀,具有显著的集中性,这种非均匀性与城市经济规模有关。②多数大学群中好友空间分布符合度分布模型,随距离的增加而衰减,并具有明显的本地集中特征。③大学群中好友空间分布的本地集中性体现出地缘因素的作用,信息时代地缘因素依然影响着人际节点空间关系的存在形式。
    From the geographical perspective,this study aims to explore the spatial distribution characteristics of interpersonal nodes in social networking services community.In order to study the the spatial distribution characteristics of interpersonal nodes and geographical factors in the social networking services community,15 university groups in Kaixin Net are choosen as samples.Two methods of comentropy and degree distribution are used in this study,and the curve model of information flow distance decay of the university groups in Kaixin Net can be evaluated by using Origin.The study findings are: 1) The evenness degree of friends’spatial distribution in university groups of kaixin can be reflected by the size of comentropy value.The lower the comentropy value of spatial distribution of interpersonal nodes is,the more concentrated of the relationship of interpersonal nodes.The comentropy values of friends’spatial distribution in university groups are lower,and the spatial distribution presents two basic characteristics: on the whole,the distribution of friends is not even with significant concentration.The unevenness distribution of friends has a negative correlation with the city economic scale.The economic scale in Shanghai is the highest,and the comentropy value is the lowest.It suggests that the evenness degree of the friends’spatial distribution in this university groups is the lowest,and concentration degree is the highest.This relates to the gravity of economic scale towords people and information flow. 2) The friends spatial distribution in most university groups is fit with the degree distribution-exponential distribution model.Chi2/DoF value in each university group is far less than the critical value of 2,and t values are all bigger than critical value.The R2 of most university groups are more than 0.9.All of these show an obviously degree distribution-exponential distribution.The distribution of the number of friends presents a decay with distance.The higher of the decay coefficient,the stronger distance sensitivity of the distribution of the number of friends is.The friends of the university groups are centralized distribution in the local,and have significant local concentration characteristics.3) In the real world,the establishment of interpersonal node relationship is largely influenced by geopolitical factors.But with the emergence of virtual communities,the interpersonal relationships based on distance constraints have been breakthrough by instant access platform of social network. It will create new human spatial relationships.The local concentration characteristics of friends’spatial distribution in the university groups are related to the geographical factors.The human virtual activity still has historical heredity,and the local concentration characteristic can be explained by geographical factors.Based on geographical factors,the closer of the people,the stronger trust is in them,and easier to establish a relationship. The network users are tend to connect with the people close to them,so the interpersonal node relationship of university group in Kaixin Net presents the local concentration characteristic.In the information age,spatial relationship of interpersonal nodes is still influenced by geographical factors.The restriction of space and the non-restriction of space-time and communication are coexisting in social networking service community.
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    东北地区市域城市人口空间结构与劳动生产率关系研究
    杨青山, 杜雪, 张鹏, 赵怡春
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1301-1306.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1301
    摘要   PDF (331KB)
    以东北地区36个地级行政单元为样本,利用2000年中国第五次人口普查数据,采用Meijers等给出的区域城市人口中心度和分散度指标对各市域城市人口空间结构进行测度,同时借鉴Cobb-Douglas生产函数,推导出基于OLS算法的实证回归模型,选取中心度、分散度和首位城市人口规模等指标与劳动生产率进行实证分析。结果表明:① 首位城市人口规模越大,劳动生产率越高;② 中心度对劳动生产率的作用不明显;③ 分散度对劳动生产率有负的影响,并受到市域人口规模和市域尺度的影响。
    The spatial structure and efficiency is one part of the core content of Economic Geography. In recent years, based on the context of rapid development of metropolitan areas, some western scholars have been attempting to explore the relationship between spatial structure and labor productivity from the perspective of population aggregation effectiveness in metropolitan district. It is believed that the concentration can improve labor productivity. The paper measures the urban population spatial structure of administrative region of cities in the Northeast China by selecting 36 prefecture-level cities of Northeast China as samples, using data of the fifth national population census in 2000 and adopting the indicators of urban population polycentricity and decentrality which are offered by Meijers et al. In addition, the paper also has a derivation of demonstration regression model on the basis of OLS and Cobb-Douglas production function, and then takes a demonstration study on labor productivity and indicators such as polycentricity, decentrality and population scale of primate city. The objectives of this paper are generalized as: 1) to analyze the relationship between regional spatial structure and labor productivity; 2) to explore whether there is a similar relationship between structure and efficiency by comparing western researches conducted at the level of metropolitan areas with prefecture-level cities of Northeast China. The present study will undoubtedly provide a valuable theoretical basis for the prevalent regional urban systems planning in China. The main conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) The population scale of primate city has a positive correlation with labor productivity. In other words, larger population scale of primate city shows a higher labor productivity; 2) Polycentricity does not show higher labor productivity. There is no significant effect, no matter the spatial organization is single-center or multi-center, on labor productivity and also has not displayed the characteristics of scale dependence and space dependence; 3) Decentrality has an adverse impact on labor productivity, which is affected by population scale and area scale of administrative region of cities. More decentrality shows a lower labor productivity, and the population scale and area scale of administrative region of cities have a direct impact on the lower level of labor productivity when the decentrality is constant. Correspondingly, the spatial structure tending to concentration can lead to a higher labor productivity.
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    东北三省区域经济增长的趋同性研究
    谷国锋, 解瑯卓
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1307-1312.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1307
    摘要   PDF (886KB)
    新古典经济增长理论的趋同假说一直是经济学界探讨的热点问题。运用罗伯特·J·巴罗和萨拉-伊-马丁的经典趋同检验模型,选取1990~2009年的经济数据,分析探讨了东北三省以及其36个城市是否存在趋同现象。结果表明:①东北三省经济增长的σ趋同与趋异交替出现。②1990~2009年间东北三省并不存在长期绝对β趋同;在引入固定资产投资率、人口迁移率和地区虚拟变量等控制变量后的回归结果表明,在1990~2009年间东北三省存在着条件β趋同,但是由于条件β趋同意味着各个经济体是向着各自的稳态收敛,而每个经济体的稳态位置又有所差异,从长期来看各经济体间的不平等现象会仍然存在,经济差异也不会很快消失。
    The empirical research on economic growth has always been a critical issue for economists.The convergence hypothesis of the neoclassical economic growth theory states that there is a negative correlation between GDP growth rate and ratio of initial capital labor.Thus the poor regions tend to grow faster than the rich ones.This empirical observation has been a very debatable economic issue among the economists.Some economists have come to the conclusion that there are both convergence and divergence according to empirical study conducted in various regions.First,this paper states and interprets the concept about σ-convergence,absolute β-convergence,conditional β-convergence and the interaction among of them.Second,through Barro and Sala-I-Martin convergence inspection model,this paper seeks to find whether the convergence forecasted by the neoclassical growth theory really exists across three provinces(Liaoning Province,Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province) and their 36 cities in Northeast China,based on the data of the provinces from 1990 to 2009.The following conclusions are observed: 1) The σ-convergence existed in the periods of 1993-1996 and 1999-2004 with the divergence in the periods of 1990-1993,1996-1999 and 2004-2009 by turns.2) The absolute β-convergence did not exist in the period of 1990-2009,but the conditional β-convergence was proved to exist from 1990 to 2009 after introducing the rate of fixed asset investment,the net migration rate of population and the region virtual variable.The conditional β-convergence means that economic growth converges towards the steady state.It follows then that the economic disparities do not disappear rapidly across economic regions even though the conditional β-convergence exists.
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    基于图谱特征的中国典型城市空间结构演变分析
    陈菁, 罗家添, 吴端旺
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1313-1321.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1313
    摘要   PDF (584KB)
    基于地学信息图谱的方法论,选取中国典型经济快速发展的城市,对中国典型城市空间结构演变的现状进行分析。结合不同时期城市空间结构的图谱,探索城市化与城市空间结构演变的影响因素。通过对城市空间结构特征的理解和测度来把握城市空间结构的演变,总结在城市化背景下城市空间结构演变的时空规律,为城市未来健康、协调、有序发展提供服务。研究结果表明: ①城市空间结构是城市的自然环境、经济、土地利用和城市交通等各种要素在空间组织分布形式和相互作用的过程。②城市化过程中人口大量向城市转移,对城市空间结构演变的影响总体呈扩增的趋势。③地形、河流港湾、人口和经济发展等是影响城市空间结构主要的因素。④良好的城市交通网络结构是城市得以正常运转的前提,城市经济快速发展离不开高效的交通网络系统;在城市交通的空间结构的扩展特征上显现出多种发展结构,如同心圆带状结构、扇形结构等。⑤ 在地形、水系等自然条件一定的情况下,城市的空间结构是由土地利用与城市交通网络在城市空间地域上相互制约和相互协调形成的。
    Based on the methodology of Geo-info-TUPU, some typical cities with high-level economy development were carefully chosen, and the evolution process of typical Chinese urban spatial structures was analyzed at present day. In compliance with the graph spectral of urban spatial structures in different periods, some influencing factors were explored in the course of urbanization and evolution of urban spatial structures. Meanwhile, the evolution of urban spatial structure was mastered by the comprehensive understanding and measuring the features of urban spatial structure. Furthermore, with the purpose of offering service to the future city development in a healthy, coordinating and orderly way, the spatio-temporal principles of the evolution of urban spatial structure was summed up under the background of urbanization. The results of the study are showed as follows: 1) The formation of urban spatial structures is the process of space distribution forms and interaction among influencing elements such as urban natural environment, urban economic development, urban land utilization and urban transportation structures. 2) Large numbers of population transfering into cities during the process of urbanization exerts the impacts of expansion developing tendency on the evolution of urban spatial structures. 3) The major factors to affect the urban spatial structures are landform elements, river elements, bay elements, population elements and economic development, etc. 4) Well-conditioned urban transportation network is prerequisite for the normal urban operation. Meanwhile, urban economic booming can not go without a high efficient urban transportation network system. In addition, the expansion of urban transportation network structures is characterized by various development structures, like concentric circles ribbon structure, sector structure and so on. And 5) under the definite natural circumstances, such as terrain elements, water system, etc., urban spatial structure is formed by the interaction and coordination between land use and transportation network in the specific urban spatial region.
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    外部成本对区域综合运输成本空间格局的影响——以长江三角洲地区为例
    吴威, 曹有挥, 梁双波
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1322-1328.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1322
    摘要   PDF (1027KB)
    交通运输的外部成本日益成为相关学者与政府关注的热点。立足宏观尺度与区域视角,鉴于交通运输成本仍未包含外部成本的现实和理论层面对于外部成本研究的需求,以长江三角洲地区为实证,在分析外部成本及其空间格局的基础上,对比分析了考虑外部成本与否对区域综合运输成本空间格局的影响。研究发现:①长江三角洲地区外部成本巨大,其空间格局具有明显的极化特征,上海地位突出,中心城市及苏锡常、环杭州湾地区节点外部成本普遍较高,此外大部分节点外部成本较低,差异亦不明显;②考虑外部成本与否对长江三角洲地区综合运输成本的总体格局影响不大,"中心-外围"格局特征没有明显变动,上海综合运输成本优势明显,江苏板块略优于浙江板块;③考虑了外部成本,运输周转量较大的中心城市综合运输成本相对上升,而县级节点则相对下降,从区域整体看,外部成本的引入减少了中心城市之间及其与县级节点之间在综合运输成本上的差距,促进了其区域均衡化。
    The external cost of transportation has become the focus of scholars and governments′attention.In the macroscopic scale and regional perspective,considering the reality that transportation costs still not contain the external costs and the theoretic demand to study on the external costs,taking the Changjiang River Delta as the case,the external costs and its pattern in the Changjiang River Delta are illustrated in this paper,then the effect considering the external costs or not on the spatial pattern of comprehensive transportation costs are elaborated by comparison analysis.The findings show that the external costs in the Changjiang River Delta is huge, and its spatial pattern takes obvious polarization characteristics,the external costs of Shanghai is extremely high than other nodes,and the external costs of central cities,the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area and the area along Hangzhou Bay is generally higher,but the external costs of most nodes in other area is low,the difference among them are not clear.On the whole,the effect on the pattern of comprehensive transportation costs in the Changjiang River Delta is not significantly considering the external cost or not,the"center-periphery"pattern has changed little,comprehensive transportation cost of Shanghai is predominance,Jiangsu region slightly better than Zhejiang region.Because of the relative large transportation turnover,the comprehensive transportation costs of central cities rise relatively considering external costs,however,those county nodes decline relatively. From the perspective of whole region,the disparity of comprehensive transportation costs both among the main cities and between the main cities and the county nodes are narrowed by introducing the external costs,and the equilibrium of comprehensive transportation costs is improved,which will contribute to the development of those regions with higher comprehensive transportation costs.
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    基于空间变差函数的长江三角洲经济发展差异演变研究
    靳诚, 陆玉麒
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1329-1334.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1329
    摘要   PDF (969KB)
    以长江三角洲为例,运用空间变差函数分析了1978年、1988年、1998年和2008年4个时间断面的发展差异演化。研究发现:①长江三角洲经济发展空间关联效应的作用范围在不断地扩大,长江三角洲地区的经济发展受上海的辐射作用不断地增强;②经济发展的空间自组织性越来越强,空间经济分布差异明显;③在全方向上的均质程度越来越低,更多的差异体现在中观、宏观尺度,而微观尺度上空间差异变的越来越不明显;④东南—西北方向差异最大,东西方向的经济发展相对均衡。将长江三角洲发展差异演化因素归结为3个方面:历史基础、经济区位和区域发展政策。历史基础、经济区位是区域经济格局演化的内在因素,而区域发展政策则是区域经济格局演化的外在推力。
    The unbalanced distribution of economic activities is an overwhelming phenomenon in regional economy. Therefore,the analysis on the diversity of regional economy and its cause is meaningful to accelerate the development of the underdeveloped regions and to maintain its competitiveness of the developed areas.With the help of the spatial variogram,and taking the Changjiang River Delta as an example,this paper aims to describe the economic evolvement among country-level cities spatially since 1978,based on four time sections: 1978,1988,1998 and 2008.Furthermore,it is going to discuss the influential factors of the evolvement of the regional economy diversity in the Changjiang River Delta.Through analysis,the paper finds out some spatial evolvement rules of the economy in the Changjiang River Delta.Firstly,the GDP per capita increases obviously, from 17.1 km in 1978 to 131.8 km in 2008.In addition,Shanghai enhances its economic radiation on the Changjiang River Delta constantly.Secondly,the economic development of Changjiang River Delta shows different structural characteristics in different periods.As time goes by,the spatial self-organized characteristics of the economic development has become stronger and stronger,and the distribution diversity of the spatial economy also gets clearer.Thirdly,in the perspective of spatial fractal dimension,the difference is the most obvious between the direction of the southeast and the northwest,while it is quite balanced between the direction of the east and the west.Fourthly,from the figure of Kriging 3D,the evolvement of the development diversity of the regional economy in Changjiang River Delta can be seen obviously.In 1978,the regional economy in Shanghai,Suzhou and Wuxi cities develops better,while the regions in the south develop slowly;in 1988,the economy of Zhejiang Province develops faster,and some high economic points emerges;in 1998,the high economic point regions expand obviously,which mainly distribute around Shanghai,while the northwestern areas develop slowly;in 2008,the high economic points move again to the southern parts,leaving the outlying areas of the Changjiang River Delta into a low ebb of the economic development.To conclude,three factors contribute to the evolvement of the economic development diversity in the Changjiang River Delta: historical conditions, economic location,and the policies of the regional economy development.The former two are the intrinsic factors and the latter one is the extrinsic factor.
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    意大利产业区重组:集团化、创新与国际化
    王周杨, 魏也华
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1335-1341.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1335
    摘要   PDF (863KB)
    近30 a来,意大利产业区成为西方学术界研究的热点与争论焦点。传统的意大利产业区模式主要强调中小企业为主的"弹性专业化"生产系统与本地社区的嵌入性。在全球化与知识经济的宏观背景下,意大利产业区正在经历一系列的以集团化、创新与国际化为主要特征的产业重组过程:产业区的组织结构开始由中小企业为主的"弹性专业化"生产系统向"产业区集团"主导的等级制生产体系转变;创新模式由本地分散化的渐进式创新向大企业研发导向的开放式创新转变,外部知识联系的作用不断增强;企业生产活动的国际化、跨国公司的进入使得产业区相对封闭的本地网络向开放的全球网络转变。其转型和发展理论对中国产业区的发展具有重要启示,未来中国产业区研究应注重3方面:①运用演化的视角研究产业区的动态发展过程;②关注本地网络与全球网络的互动;③强调中观区域视角与微观企业视角的结合。
    Italian industrial districts(IDs) attracted substantial scholarly attention in the past three decades. Based on the recent literature on Italian industrial districts,this paper analyzes the feartures of traditional Italian industrial district model,and the recent restructuring processes of the districts in the context of globalization and knowledge economy.The traditional Italian industrial districts model is characterized by small and medium enterprises(SMEs) production system with flexible specialization and embeddedness in local communities, resembling the Marshallian industrial district(MID).However,with the development of globalization and knowledge economy,Italian industrial districts have been undergoing the process of restructuring,including groupification,innovation and internationalization.Specifically,the organizational structure has been transformed from a small and medium enterprises production system to a hierarchical production system dominated by’district groups’;the innovation model has been transformed from localized incremental innovation to open innovation based on R&D in large firms,as well as the increasing importance of external knowledge linkages; the relatively closed local network has been turned into an open global network with the processes of internationalization of production activities and the entrance of multi-national enterprises(MNEs).Finally,this paper discusses theoretical implications for the research on industrial districts and empirical implications for the development of Chinese industrial districts.It is argued that the future research on industrial districts should pay more attention to the following three areas: 1) the evolutionary processes of the industrial districts; 2) the interaction between local and global networks;3) the integration of meso-level,region-based view with micro-level,firm-based view.
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    复杂网络理论下世界原油贸易空间格局演进研究
    程淑佳, 王肇钧
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1342-1348.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1342
    摘要   PDF (1071KB)
    依据世界原油贸易数据,以复杂网络理论为基础,结合地理学的区域分析方法,勾勒出世界原油贸易空间结构,并比较了区域间节点、出、入度及权重值的差异。利用熵值分析了网络的均质性,并对世界原油贸易空间结构进行了模拟。研究表明:①尽管世界原油贸易空间格局的节点增幅不大,但随时间推移,节点的度与权重值大幅增加,即世界原油贸易范围及效应在逐渐加大;②通过对节点、出、入度及权重值的比较,揭示了不同区域在世界原油贸易空间格局中的职能差异;③结构熵、权重熵的测定与世界原油贸易空间格局的模拟均表明世界原油贸易空间格局网络的有序性,世界原油空间格局是非均质的。多元化不等于均质化,贸易主体要依据各自所面临的客观环境选择适合区域合作伙伴,才能更好的落实多元化进口策略,切实解决可能面临的石油供给危机。
    The crude oil importing countries are nowadays taking advantage of the diversification strategy to shield from the risk of oil import in the strained circumstance of world wide crude oil import.The oil strategy of a country is however highly tied up with other countries with the rapidly intensified affinity in crude oil trade.Therefore,an in-depth understanding and extensive knowledge in the status of external oil trade is justified in the decision-making and executing process of oil strategy.Ignorance of such interactive effects will definitely incur obstruction to the diversification strategy and further detriment to the guarantee of oil importing safety.This paper develops a novel approach to assessing the world’s network of crude oil import and revealing the evolving law of the degree,weight,and standard entropy with the aid of complex network method.Furthermore, a parallel regional comparison is analyzed to highlight the differences between the states and the homogeneity of international crude oil trade networks.A simulation analysis of the spatial structure of world crude oil trade is finally presented.Major conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) Variations in terms of the importing and exporting nodes within the period from 2001 to 2008 are marginal and therefore indicate relatively stable orientations of trading countries;2) An ascending trend in terms of global crude petroleum trade magnitude,together with the more aggressive competition in the crude petroleum trade,is revealed from the perspective of exporting and importing weights.The general pattern indicates that most of the crude petroleum is transported from Middle-east,Africa,Central and South Americ,East Europe as well as Middle Asia to Asia-Pacific,North America,Central Europe and West Europe;3) Heterogeneity to a certain extent is also demonstrated with the spatial structure of global petroleum trade.However,neither the structure entropy nor the weight entropy indicates a random spatial structure of global crude petroleum but an ordered one.Comparison of weight and structure entropy shows that quota is more homogeneous than weight,which can therefore scale the desire of the countries to build more comprehensive relations,despite the fact that resource reserve determines the magnitude of petroleum trade.4) Diversity in terms of magnitude and direction of connection in the network nodes is highlighted by the topology structure of global crude petroleum trade.The Middle East is still the primary supplier who provides most of the petroleum to the majority of the world,while other areas including the former Soviet Union,West Africa,North Africa and North America(Canada and Mexico)mainly provide crude petroleum to specific regions.Non-uniform spatial structure is also displayed by the topology structure of global crude petroleum.In conclusion,diversification does not necessarily mean homogeneity.The resource reserve in each region varies and the economic and political relationships in different regions are also diverse,which consequently justify that diversification of import channels depends on the objective situation and relationship with business partners.
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    北京城区城市热岛的多时空尺度变化
    张佳华, 孟倩文, 李欣, YANG Li-min
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1349-1354.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1349
    摘要   PDF (506KB)
    利用气象台站数据分析北京城郊气温和城市热岛(UHI)强度的年变化及风速对北京UHI的影响;同时分析北京5个城市站点UHI在不同季节的日变化特征。结果表明,近44 a来北京市区与郊区的多年平均气温和UHI强度均呈增加的趋势。风速的降低促进北京城区的UHI出现增加趋势。风速对UHI的季节变化影响也很显著。2005年北京UHI日变化呈现了明显的夜间强,午间弱的特征,尤以天安门和公主坟站点的UHI日变化明显;冬季UHI强度比其他季节相应时次的UHI都强,且冬季UHI日变化幅度最大,夏季日变化幅度最小。
    The annual variation of intensity of urban heat island (UHI), the impact of wind speed on UHI, and the diurnal variations of five urban sites in different seasons were studied in the paper by using the meteorological data. The result shows that annual average temperature appears an increasing trend in Beijing urban and suburb areas for the past 44 years. The intensity of UHI also shows an increasing trend. There is a negative correlation between the UHI and synchronous wind speed in Beijing region, and the decrease of wind speed led to the increase of UHI intensity. Results also show that diurnal change of UHI of Beijing is significant in 2005, the UHI is strong at nigh and week in the noon. The strongest UHI appears generally in winter seasons and the amplitude of UHI diurnal variation in winter is the largest, and the smallest in summer.
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    历史时期分布在北京平原上的泉水与湖泊
    邓辉, 罗潇
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1355-1361.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1355
    摘要   PDF (961KB)
    历史时期北京平原上湖泊众多,地表泉数以百计。历史时期由于永定河冲积扇的地下潜水水位较高,在潜水溢出带周围出露数以百计的下降泉,成为平原上众多湖泊的主要水源补给,并满足城市规划、园林设计、运河漕运、游憩休闲的需要。随着现代化城市的迅速发展,永定河冲积扇的地下潜水水位迅速下降,原来分布在潜水溢出带周围的数以百计的下降泉已经全部枯竭,位于其下游许多湖泊也随之干涸消亡,北京平原地表水系被彻底改造,城市生态环境发生巨大变化。
    The origin and development of the old Beijing City is closely related with its local surface water system of the alluvial plain.The surface water within or around the city not only was the part of local ecological system,but also provided the needs for the everyday life in the old city,such as the cannel transportation,the landscape garden design,even the city planning.According to the historical documents,more than one-hundred seepage springs and many small lakes were distributed on the Beijing Plain that was mainly consisted of the Yongding River’s alluvial fans.During the historical time,the underground water table was much higher than today,and a plenty of phreatic water discharged along the hyporheic zone of the toes of alluvial fans as the seepage springs.These seepage springs not only provided the water for the nearby small lakes,but also acted as the sources of rivers that originated on the fans.Based on their locations,the seepage springs can be grouped into two sets.The northern group of springs,which were distributed on the Yongding River’s old fan, included the Wanquan springs,the Diaoyutai springs,the Lianhua springs,and the Baixi springs.The southern group of springs,which were located on the Yongding River’s new fan,included the Caoqiao springs,the Yimuquan springs,and the Tuanpo springs.Generally,the phreatic water table had been fluctuating with the changes of rainfall and underground hydraulic condition,which might cause the changes of the seepage springs.From a long time scale,the seepage springs had been keeping stable,and some of them have existed for over one-thousand years.In the past 100 years,especially in the past 50 years,all the seepage springs once distributed on the alluvial fans vanished,and many lakes that formed upon the Yongding River’s abandoned meanders or ox-bow lakes dried up.This human’s irrational activities led to the rapidly dropping of the water table.Comparing to the historical time,the surface water system of the Beijing Plain has been thoroughly transformed by human.
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    农户生计非农化对耕地流转的影响——以福建省长汀县为例
    王成超, 杨玉盛
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1362-1367.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1362
    摘要   PDF (817KB)
    针对农户生计非农化对耕地流转的影响,采用Logistic回归分析方法,对福建省长汀县358户农户生计非农化对耕地流转的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:①农户生计非农化与耕地流出之间是一种正反馈关系,农户生计非农化有效促进了农户耕地的流出;②生计非农化诱致的农业劳动力缺乏以及较高的务农机会成本是农户耕地流出的直接原因;③生计非农化总体上对耕地流入起到抑制作用,其中,务农机会成本对农户耕地流入起到主导的抑制作用,而地租下降等因素对耕地流入起到促进作用,一定程度上缓解了高务农机会成本对耕地流入的影响。
    Cropland transfer is crucial in dealing with the contradiction between agricultural modernization with rural household contract responsibility system.It may overcome the disadvantages of Chinese traditional system of land equalization and boost the sustainable use of cropland.With the nonfarm process of rural households’livelihood, many migrating households tend to transfer their cropland out.And those rural households with lower migrating labor rate may engage in large-scale agricultural production.Therefore,understanding the impact of rural households’nonfarm employment on cropland transfer is essential to clarify the driving forces of cropland transfer.In the article,the impact of rural households’nonfarm employment on cropland transfer was systematically analyzed in rural and environmentally fragile areas in Changting County of Fujian Province,based on the survey of 358 households in 6 villages.The logistic regressive model was established to examine the impact of rural households’nonfarm employment on cropland transfer.The independent variables of the logistic regressive model included: number of household agricultural labors,average age of household agricultural labors,cropland area per capita,the proportion of income from managing cropland to total household income per year,and proportion of employees at non-agriculture to total labors.The results indicated that rural households’nonfarm employment remarkably promoted the cropland transfer out.The relationship between rural households’nonfarm employment and cropland transfer was a positive feedback relationship.The agricultural labor scarcity and agricultural labor opportunity costs resulted from out-migration and local off-farm employment were the primary cause of the cropland transfer out.Moreover,nonfarm employment as a whole impeded cropland transfer in.In detail,agricultural labor opportunity costs hindered the cropland transfer in,while the decrease of land rent promoted the cropland transfer in to some extent.Finally,conclusions and policy enlightenment were summarized.The conclusions contained three parts.Firstly,the relationship between rural livelihood nonfarm trend and cropland transfer out was a positive feedback other than a simple one-way linear relation.Secondly,agricultural labor scarcity and agricultural labor opportunity costs resulted from rural nonfarm employment was the most important cause of cropland transfer out.In addition,the higher opportunity costs and decreasing cropland rent were key factors of cropland transfer in.Therefore,in order to promote cropland transfer and sustainable management,some measures should be taken such as accelerating rural labor forces transfer into non-agriculture,boosting the cropland centralization and large-scale management, increasing overall support for large-scale agriculture,and optimizing the management of cropland transfer.
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    江苏邳州板材集群演化的文化机理
    孟召宜, 黄泽虎, 李红瑞, 张雪妮
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1368-1375.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1368
    摘要   PDF (1018KB)
    在明晰邳州文化特征和板材产业集群发展历程的基础上,运用访谈和问卷调查方法,从心智模型、社会资本和非正式制度三个层面,分析邳州板材产业集群演化的文化机理。研究表明:文化对集群演化的影响具有立体性,以企业家精神为重要内容的心智模型体现文化的内在能动力量,而社会资本和文化的非正式制度作用体现文化的外在动力;文化对集群的影响具有动态性和阶段性,文化影响的力度与产业集群演化的生命周期具有内在逻辑联系性;由于地域文化二元性和文化与经济演化逻辑的差异性,文化对集群的影响具有复杂性;产业集群既具经济特征,也有文化内涵。产业集群一个的重要功能在于文化的储存记忆和"熔炉"作用,其竞争力在于集群文化的自生能力而内生形成的文化生产力和文化创新力,以及建基与此的文化资本、社会资本、经济资本、技术资本快速流畅的转换。
    Based on the characteristics of culture and the development process of wood sheet industrial cluster in Pizhou City of Jiangsu Province,this paper analyzed cultural mechanism to the evolution of wood sheet industrial cluster in Pizhou from three cultural levels covering mental mode,social capital and informal institution by using the methods of depth interview and questionnaire survey.Results were showed that the cultural influence on cluster was characterized with three-dimension,that was to say,the mental mode was the intrinsic motivation of culture,the social capital and cultural informal institutions were the external powers of culture, and the coordinated development of the three formed a cultural coupling force to affect the cluster evolution. The cultural influence on cluster is dynamic,concretely speaking,the traditional relation network promotes and supports the construction of the cluster production network at the germination stage,with growth of the industrial cluster.The enterprises of the internal cluster are gradually transcending the geopolitical and consanguinity relation network,while the position and the role of the traditional relation network is relatively decreased, the relationship between the strength of cultural influences and the life cycle of industrial cluster evolution is internal logic.The cultural influence on cluster has an endogenous characteristic.The competitiveness of industrial cluster rested on the productivity and creativity of culture and the fast flowing conversion among cultural capital,social capital,and economic capital is endogenously formed on the basis of cultural spontaneity ability.Also by means of external embedding,the expanded reproduction of the capital cycle and its structure upgrade are obtained,i.e.,the cultural effect is the essential point of the cluster competitiveness and vitality.The cultural influence on cluster is also complicated,and the relationship of culture and economy is subtle and paradoxical due to the duality of the regional culture and the differences of evolving logic between culture and economy.The growth of the sheet industrial cluster is affected by the dual positive and negative influence of the culture,and their influence is constantly changing in different stage of the cluster development, which makes the sustainability of the wood sheet industrial cluster economy is full of the cultural challenge. The industrial cluster has a binary features of economy and culture.It has the economic characteristics and social and cultural connotations,an important function of which lies in the store memories and crucible function of culture,at the same time,with cultural influence on the industrial cluster.The cluster evolution is closely linked to the culture development,and they affected each other and developed coordinately.
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    基于系统动力学的中国西南岩溶区的水资源承载力——以贵州省毕节地区为例
    何仁伟, 刘邵权, 刘运伟
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1376-1382.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1376
    摘要   PDF (1136KB)
    对中国西南岩溶区水资源-生态环境-社会经济反馈关系进行分析,选取贵州省毕节地区做为研究对象,建立毕节地区水资源承载力系统动力学模型;通过动态模拟和综合调试,生成5种有效方案:传统发展型方案(方案1)、节水发展型方案(方案2)、开源与环保发展型方案(方案3)、GDP快速增长型方案(方案4)和协调发展型方案(方案5)。综合分析得出方案5是调控优化方案。对方案5对应的SD模型发展趋势做分析,为毕节地区及西南岩溶区水资源可持续利用提供决策依据。
    Based on analysis of the basic feedback structure of water resources-ecological environment-social economy system in Karst Region of Southwest China, taking Bijie region, Guizhou Province as the research area, this paper set up a System Dynamic(SD) model of Bijie region through dynamic simulation and synthetical adjustment. Five available schemes were chosen from various experimental schemes. They are traditional development scheme(Scheme 1), water-saving development scheme (Scheme 2), broaden sources of water resources and environmental protection scheme (Scheme 3),fast economic development-oriented scheme (Scheme 4) and coordinated development-oriented scheme (Scheme 5). Comprehensive evaluation indicates that Scheme 5 is the optimal one, which takes social economic development, ecological environment protection, water-saving and water resources development into account, and brings obvious social economic ecological and water-saving benefits. Therefore, this paper analyzed the corresponding SD model of Scheme 5 and the development trend of Bijie region in the next 12 years, and came to the conclusions that the application of Scheme 5 can effectively promote the coordinated development of water resources, ecological environment and social economy in Bijie region, and improve the carrying capacity of water resources in this area.
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    基于Copula的区域水文干旱频率分析
    周玉良, 袁潇晨, 金菊良, 郦建强, 宋松柏
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1383-1388.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1383
    摘要   PDF (1100KB)
    以径流量为水文干旱指标,通过径流量距平百分率和径流量累积频率两种方法识别水文干旱特征变量,并以适线法确定单个干旱特征变量的分布曲线,在此基础上利用Archimedean Copula函数构建了干旱历时与干旱烈度间的联合分布,并计算干旱重现期。应用研究结果表明:用Copula函数,得以上两种识别法提取的干旱历时和干旱烈度的联合概率分布,其重现期计算结果与区域实际受旱状况相符,其中径流量距平百分率法相对更优、更直观;适线法避免了基于样本数据估计分布函数参数的不合理性,使基于Copula函数的频率分析结果更可靠。
    Considering the runoff as a hydrological drought indicator,this paper describes the identification of hydrological drought characteristic variables via the anomaly and cumulative approaches.Building upon the frequency distribution of each drought characteristic variable from the curve fitting method and taking advantage of the Archimedean Copulas,the joint distribution of drought duration and severity were constructed and accordingly the drought return periods were estimated.The proposed method for drought frequency estimation was applied to Shaoyang,Hunan Province of China.The obtained results show that drought return periods estimated by the Gumbel-Hougaard and Frank Copulas correspond with the actual regional drought circumstances, and drought characteristic variables obtained based on anomaly approach is better comparatively;curve fitting method can avoid the irrationality from estimation of parameters based on data directly,so the results of Copula-based frequency analysis with curve fitting method are more objective and reliable.
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    新疆极端水文事件年际变化及对气候变化的响应
    孙桂丽, 陈亚宁, 李卫红
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1389-1395.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1389
    摘要   PDF (723KB)
    利用1901~2010年极端水文事件资料,采用Mann-kendall统计检验研究其年际、年代际变化及对气候变化的响应,结果表明:年际变化总体为增加趋势,20世纪70年代以来增加显著;各地区由于主导灾害不同,年代际变化不尽相同, 冰雹为主导灾害的地区80年代的发生频次最多,其它地区呈逐年代平稳增加;各类型极端水文事件年际变化也不尽相同,但于近10 a达最大值;极端水文事件增加趋势与气温、降水一致,不同极端水文事件对气候变化因子响应略有不同。
    Based on the data of extreme hydrological events in Xinjiang from 1901 to 2010, the interannual and interdecadal variations and the trend were studied with Mann-kendall abrupt test and Mann-kendall trend test. The results indicated that the frequency of extreme hydrological events exhibited an obvious increasing trend from the 19th to the 21th, significant particularly since 1970s. The changes are different in various areas. The frequency in Tacheng, Kuytun-Shihezi, Bozhou, Hamilton, Turpan, Bazhou, Kashi, Kezhou and Aksu in 1980s is approximate twice compared with that in 1990s. And the frequencies in these areas in 1980s were the highest, which is related to their lead hail hazards. The frequencies in other areas increased steady. The interannual and interdecadal variations are also not so identical, but they get to the maximum during the past 10 year. The trend of extreme hydrological events increases significantly, and is consistent with temperature and precipitation. The responses to the climate change are a little different during various extreme hydrological events.
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    1880年以来石羊河出山径流量重建与变化特征
    侯迎, 王乃昂, 张学敏, 路俊伟
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1396-1402.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1396
    摘要   PDF (626KB)
    在石羊河上游山区采集流域树木年轮样芯,建立高分辨率宽度年表。分析年表、降水和径流量间的相关关系,在它们间良好相关性基础上,分别利用多元逐步回归和提取主分量再回归方法重建金塔河和西营河历史时期上年9月至当年8月年径流量序列,以逐一剔除和交叉检验验证回归方程的稳定性和可靠性。1880年以来,石羊河年径流量共经历了4个枯水阶段和3个丰水阶段,而枯水年与丰水年出现的概率大致相同,且远低于平水年出现的概率。用多窗谱分析径流量序列周期变化,发现在不同置信水平上,年径流量存在2.58、2.76、3.28、3.53、4.14和22.2 a的周期。
    In the past few years, many serious ecological problems caused by the shortage of water resources, such as discontinuous surface runoff, dried lakes, lowered groundwater level, and deteriorated water quality had emerged in the Shiyang River Basin. But the hydrologic observation data were insufficient to understanding the extremes, and how hydrological variability may be changing in a warming world. Few high-resolution and long researches had been carried out in this region yet. Therefore, it’s necessary to sample tree-ring cores, and five new tree-ring width chronologies were developed in the upper reaches of Shiyang River Basin. To understand the hydrologic response of the radial growth of Picea crassifolia, correlation analyses of tree-ring chronologies with precipitation and runoff were conducted. The results showed that five chronologies were significantly and strongly related to total runoff from September of the previous year to August of the growing year (RSA); five chronologies also had significant and positive relationships with total precipitation from September of the previous year to August of the growing year (PSA); and the correlation coefficients between RSA and PSA were significant and positive. So, precipitation played a role of bridge and tie between tree-rings and runoff. Then, annual runoff series of Jinta River were reconstructed according to a multiple linear regression model, and runoff series of Xiying River were reconstructed utilizing principal components extraction and stepwise regression, and two models were tested by the methods of leave-one-out and cross-verification. There was a notable correlation between the two runoff series of Jinta River and Xiying River, with a correlation coefficient of 0.865, and two series had the same change tendency. So, it can be concluded that annual runoff series of Shiyang River had obvious low-frequency and high-frequency variations, and contained four severe dry periods (during 1880-1892, 1925-1935, 1960-1967, and 1997-2002) and three significant wet periods (occurred in 1894-1923, 1935-1959, and 1967-1986), and the appear frequency of low stream years and high stream years tended to middle . The dominant periods calculated by MTM spectrum analysis were 2.58 a, 2.76 a, 3.28 a, 3.53 a, 4.14 a, and 22.2 a at different significant levels.
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    气候变暖背景下塔里木盆地水资源可持续利用
    李艳, 张鹏飞, 唐晓春
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1403-1408.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1403
    摘要   PDF (470KB)
    根据塔里木盆地水循环的特点,从系统的观点出发定义塔里木盆地水资源可持续利用的定量化概念,建立了水文循环的系统动力学模型。从模型可以看出,径流量主要由降水量、冰雪贮水量决定,而降水量又由内、外循环系数及系统贮水量决定。仿真模拟结果显示:在温度升高的背景下,系统贮水量减少,水资源系统恶化;水资源系统对内、外循环转化率变化非常敏感。因塔里木盆地降水转化率与全国相比很低,具有改善的潜力,考虑盆地独特地形条件及气候系统特征,从概念上分析人工影响塔里木盆地水文循环的可能及途径。
    From the view of systemic theory, based on the water cycle character, the paper puts forward the quantitative concept of water sustainable utilization in Tarim basin, and builds up the System Dynamic (SD) model of water cycle in Tarim basin. From the model the conclusion can be drawn that water resource is decided by the quantity of precipitation and solid water from the mountains and the precipitation is decided by the recycle coefficient and water storage of the system. The computer simulating results show that the water storage decreased and water system degraded with the temperature rising, and the water system is sensitive to the recycle coefficient and that value is very small compares to the mean value of the whole country. Consider the unique topography and characters of climate system of the basin, the ways to impact the water cycle artificially in Tarim basin are proposed.
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    中国陆地生态系统近30年NPP时空变化研究
    陈福军, 沈彦俊, 李倩, 郭英, 徐丽梅
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (11): 1409-1414.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1409
    摘要   PDF (748KB)
    通过陆地生态系统碳循环模型(CASA模型),利用AVHRR的NDVI长期监测数据,逐像元模拟1981~2008年中国陆地生态系统NPP的时空变化,分析其对气候因子的响应关系。结果表明,中国陆地生态系统NPP总量在3.38 ~4.35 Pg C/a之间变化,平均约为3.8 Pg C/a,且研究期间呈上升趋势。在青藏高原、新疆天山地区和东北大小兴安岭、长白山等冷湿区,NPP年总累积量和年均温呈显著正相关,和年降水量呈显著负相关;地处华北的太行山、燕山等山区和内蒙古中部草原区等干燥环境区,NPP与年降水呈正相关关系;青藏高原及新疆地区和华北平原、四川盆地等农业区,NPP与年均温呈正相关关系。
    In this paper, using terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle model (CASA model) to possess the AVHRR NDVI long-term monitoring data, we simulated the spatio-temporal changes of the NPP of terrestrial ecosystems by pixel in China from 1981 to 2008, and analyzed the relationship between NPP and climate factors. The results show that the total NPP of terrestrial ecosystems of China varied between 3.38-4.35 Pg C/a, averaging about 3.8 Pg C/a, and there is a upward trend in 1981-2008. In the cold and wet areas such as Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Tianshan Mountains and the northeastern region of Da and Xiao Hinggan Mountains and Changbai Mountain, the total accumulation NPP and annual average temperature have a significant positive correlation ship, and significantly negatively correlated with the annual precipitation. In the dry conditions, such as Taihang Mountains and Yanshan Mountains, located in the north of China, and the central Inner Mongolia grassland regions, NPP and annual precipitation are positively correlated. In Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Xinjiang and the agricultural regions such as North China Plain, Sichuan Basin, there has a positive correlation between NPP and average annual temperature.
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