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  • 地理科学
      2012年, 第32卷, 第7期 刊出日期:2012-07-20 上一期    下一期
    选择: 合并摘要 显示图片
    基于扎根理论的节事场所依赖维度探索性研究——以2011西安世界园艺博览会为例
    戴光全,梁春鼎
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 777-783.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.777
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (419KB)

    场所依赖(place attachment)探讨的是个人对充满意义的特定场所产生的某种认知或感情的联系。作为一项探索性研究,以2011西安世界园艺博览会为案例,采用质性研究方法,通过参与观察和深度访谈等手段获取研究资料,运用扎根理论深入分析游客的活动特征和情感态度,研究游客的节事场所依赖特征。在此基础上挖掘和提炼节事场所依赖的维度,最终构建一个由个体、社会、场所和节事4个维度构成的节事场所依赖PSPE概念模型,为节事场所依赖的定量研究打下基础。


    Place attachment is a hot topic in place study which is defined as an individual’s cognitive or emotional connection to a particular setting or milieu, which attracts a great concern of researchers in the field of human geography, urban sociology, community science, environmental psychology, and behavioral science. However, place attachment study is seldom related to event venue. A literature review shows that most researchers treated event as an attribute of event host community to study the place attachment between people and host community, but paid little attention to event venue itself. As an inductive research approach, grounded theory is appropriate for situations where no pre-existing theory exists, which indicates its usefulness for the exploratory study on place attachment in event venue. The primary purpose of this study is to document the meanings event-goers attach to a specific event venue. If those meanings are known, managers can more effectively plan for the management of venue deemed to be special by their constituents. As an exploratory research, the International Horticultural Exposition, 2011, Xi'an (Expo 2011 Xi'an, China) is taken as a case, and first-hand data are collected from observation and interviews. The task of observation and interviews is to find out what factors in venue significantly affect the cognition and emotion of event-goers. Interviewees were asked to respond to a series of instructions regarding the venue of Expo 2011 Xi'an, China. The instructions are as follows: 1) describing in a few sentences what the venue is like—for example, what the venue looks, sounds, smells, or feels like, important features presented, and so on; 2) describing the thoughts, feelings, memories, and associations that come to mind when they think about this venue; 3) why this venue is important or special to them. To ensure diversity in types of event-goers in levels of experience, a systematic sampling strategy is employed. On-site sampling is divided into six days (four week days and two weekend days) from June 5 through July 20, 2011. A total of 21 respondents provid key messages for theory construction. Then the attribute of event venue attachment is analyzed from aspects of behaviors, attitudes and emotions of event-goers. The dimensions of place attachment in event venue based on grounded theory are refined and summarized through three analytic procedures: open coding, axial coding, and selective coding. In open coding, the article extracts 68 native concepts in conceptual stage and forms 16 categories after categorization. The atudy establishes relationships among categories and forms four main categories in axial coding: person, society, place, and event (PSPE). Finally, a PSPE conceptual model of place attachment in event venue is contructed after selective coding. Person and society belong to human dimension. The perception object of people is a combination constituted by event and host community. Local factors and distinctiveness of event are integrated in the event venue. The article takes event dimension apart from place dimension, and further subdivides human dimension into person and society, which makes subjectivity and dominant nature of place attachment in event venue more clear and accurate.

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    基于伯特兰德均衡和智猪博弈的寡头景区竞合策略研究
    罗浩,陈浩,曹靖
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 784-789.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.784
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (543KB)

    近些年来,旅游地之间的竞争与合作一直是旅游研究的热点问题。从博弈论的角度切入,通过建立伯特兰德模型,分析在寡头垄断环境下景区的竞争策略,确定均衡条件下的最优门票价格;通过引入“智猪博弈”模型,以旅游基础设施投资为例,分析了几种不同情况下景区间的合作关系,提出在景区实力较悬殊的情况下,小景区存在通过搭便车增加自身游客量的方法;而在其他几种情况中,景区间可能分摊投资费用或者都不愿投资;最后,通过对阿坝和皖南两个案例的讨论,初步验证了提出的理论观点。


    Competition and cooperation of tourism destinations have been widely discussed for both academics and tourism practitioners. This article aims to examine the competition and cooperation relationship of oligopoly scenic areas from a game theory perspective. In particular, Bertrand model is firstly employed to analyze the competitive strategy of scenic areas under oligopoly environment, and the optimal ticket price under equilibrium is further identified. Secondly, boxed pigs game model is introduced to examine the cooperation of scenic areas for infrastructure investment under different scenarios. The results indicate that under the scenario that significant difference exists in the competitive power of scenic areas, the scenic areas with less competitive power are capable of increasing their tourist arrivals by free riding, whereas for other scenarios, all scenic areas involved either prefer to share the investment cost together or be not willing to invest at all. Finally, the theoretical conclusions are verified by the analysis on the two cases of Ngawa and the Southern Anhui in China. Here the Game theory is introduced to market behavior analysis of tourist attraction. Based on Bertrand equilibrium and boxed pigs game model, this artcile discusses the competition and cooperation of scenic areas under different scenarios. The results indicates that when the competitive powers among scenic areas are significantly different, then in the short term, the best competitive strategy for the scenic areas with less competitive power is to follow the prices established by the scenic areas with greater competitive powers. In the long term, tourist areas with less competitive power could improve themselves by promoting their brands, emphasizing the product difference, and being a free rider regarding with investing in infrastructure construction and promoting in potential tourist source markets. As for two scenic areas with similar competitive powers, they could enhance their competitive advantages by cooperation on branding and marketing the tourism destination as a whole, constructing internal transportation network together, and sharing human resources, information and other resources. This article analyzes the competition and cooperation under the assumption of complete market economy environment. Therefore, each scenic area is treated as an independent rational economic man and the impact of government is not considered. However in China, the governments play important roles in tourism market. For example, they are often the owners and managers of some scenic areas; they act as the supervisors and regulators of price competition in the tourism market; and they are largely involved in the cooperation amongst scenic areas, promotion of tourism destination and investment of tourism infrastructure. In the future, the impact of government on the cooperation and competition relationship between scenic areas could be further examined. Moreover, this study analyzes the competition and cooperation for the duopoly market structure. In the future other market structures should be also considered.

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    基于多智能体的城市人口分布模型
    康停军,张新长,赵元,王海鹰,张维
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 790-797.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.790
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (890KB)

    人口是城市发展中最为活跃的因素,快速增长的人口给城市安全、经济和生态环境带来了深远的影响,获取不同尺度的高精度人口空间分布信息对于城市安全管理、提高资源环境的综合管理能力具有非常重要的意义。针对常用的城市人口空间分布模拟方法存在的不足,构建了基于多智能体的城市人口分布模型,模型由影响要素、智能体、决策规则等组成。在两个不同尺度区域进行了模型应用实验,并以重力模型进行了对比分析。实验结果表明,与重力模型相比,此模型所模拟的结果具有更高的精度,且接近于实际的人口空间分布,为城市人口分布模拟提供了新的思路。


    The acquisition of detailed population distribution has become an important research topic in the fields of geography and its relative disciplines. Urban population distribution is of significance in the correlation analysis among economies, environment protection, resources utilization and urban planning. In recent years, grid transformation of population data based on GIS and RS technologies has become the focus of population spatial distribution. Many transformation models (digital population model, kernel estimate model, gravity model, etc.) and high resolution RS images (ETM image, land use data and aerophotogrammetry image, etc.) are used. The existing researches mainly use the top-down models. The applications of them are limited since there are too many parameters to determine or too complex to execute. Urban population distribution is a typical bottom-up macroscopic phenomenon caused by individual migration at the microscopic level. Multi-agent technology provides a new solution for such problems. It has been widely used in the field of land-use simulation, land-use planning and residential segregation. This article analyzes the importance of spatial distribution of urban population data. To overcome the disadvantages of traditional methods, a framework based on multi-agent system and GIS is proposed to model the spatial distribution of urban population data. This framework consists of external environment controller, housing infrastructure, multi-agent and rule. Impact factors, such as traffic accessibility, education, environment and living facility have been chosen and quantified by GIS. In the framework, each agent represents a family. Within the consideration of economic conditions and school-age children, agents are divided into six categories. The impact factor weights in each category are determined by AHP. Residential land has been rasterized into regular residential cell in initial condition; each residential cell has the same amount of agents. Whether an agent migrates or not depends on the residential pressure, and the probability of leaving its current location increases monotonically with the residential pressure. Under the residential pressure of socio-economy, every agent decides whether to leave the residential location or not. If an agent decides to leave, it must select the optimal location to migrate according to the constraints such as incomes and perception of the environment. If the target location has been full of agents, the migrating agent must consult with every agent living in the target location. Exponential function is introduced to represent the probability of successful consultation, which depends on the utilities in target location of two consulting agents. The population distribution is formed by means of decision-making, consulting and migration of agents. The proposed model is applied to simulating the population distribution of two districts in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China. Compared with the gravity model, the model proposed in this article achieves higher accuracy and is closer to the actual distribution pattern. In a conclusion, the simulation model based on multi-agent technology can provide a new method of modeling urban population distribution.

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    高速公路对区域发展影响的评价体系研究——以山东省为例
    刘瑞超,丁四保,王成新,孙京姐
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 798-806.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.798
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1265KB)

    作为现代社会的重要交通设施,高速公路缩短了区域间的时空距离,迅速成为区域交通运输网络的动脉,极大地改变了人们的生产、生活方式。为充分研究高速公路对区域发展影响的态势与差异性,构建了“指标遴选–权重确定与修正–评价运算”的评价体系流程,从经济社会环境角度建立指标体系,设计DAEF评价模型。为检验评价体系的科学性与实用性,将这一体系应用于山东省实证研究。经实证检验:① 所设计的指标体系与评价方法能够准确反映高速公路对区域发展影响的态势。高速公路对山东省区域经济、社会发展呈正向影响、对区域环境变化呈现负向影响,影响力逐渐增强;各种指标对高速公路反应灵敏度随时间推移呈现一定规律:区域经济发展速度灵敏度波动下降,而区域产业结构、区域经济效益在稳步上升;区域现代化进程灵敏度最高,区域外向联系次之,区域教育医疗卫生最低;高速公路环境负外部性增强。② 评价体系能够准确反映高速公路对区域经济、社会影响的空间差异。高速公路对山东省现状区的影响强于潜在区,影响力在各区具有自东向西递减的趋势,在中部又有北侧高于南侧的现象,即对“山东半岛蓝色经济区”、“济南都市圈”部分影响最大,“黄河三角洲高效生态经济区”部分次之,“鲁南经济带”部分最低,分指标评价结果差异性明显。但高速公路对区域环境影响差异评价不够理想,认为高速公路环境外部性的货币化将是评价体系改进的重点所在。


    As an important transportation facility of modern society, the expressway shortens the regional space-time distance and satisfies people's desire for speed and efficiency. It has changed the mode of production and people's lifestyle immensely and quickly becomes the artery of regional transportation network and important bridge of regional logistics. In order to give a comprehensive study of the influence situation and difference of expressway on regional development, the research designs the "indices selection-weight determination and modification-evaluation calculation" assessment process of the expressway's influence on the regional development. From economic, social and environmental perspective, it establishes index system, and structures DAEF model based on Delphi method, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Entropy method and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Approach (FCE). This assessment system is applied to the empirical study of Shandong Province in order to examine its scientificalness and practicability. The assessment system can reflect the situation of expressway's influence on the regional development accurately. The expressway has more and more important influence on the development of Shandong Province; it has a positive effect on regional economy and social development, on the contrary, has a negative effect on regional environmental change. The system also can reflect the variation of sensitivity of various index for expressway's responses. The assessment system can reflect spatial difference of expressway on the regional economy and society accurately. The expressway has a stronger influence on current area of Shandong Province than its potential one. The expressway economy and social influence in each area has a decreasing trend from east to west. There is a phenomenon that the north is more strongly influenced than the south in the middle part, namely, the influence of the expressway on the "Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Region" and "Metropolitan circle of Jinan" is the strongest, the influence on the "Huanghe River Delta Effective Eco-Economic Region” takes the second and the "Lu-Nan Economic Belt" is the least. The expressway's environmental influence on two areas is roughly equal, even sometimes the influence on current area is weaker than that of potential area. The demonstration has been examined. The assessment system can reflect the situation of expressway's influence on the regional development and spatial difference of expressway on the regional economy and society accurately. But the assessment of regional environment influence is not ideal enough. The direct performance is that the classification effect of influence degree is not obvious. The reason is the monetization of expressway's environment externality is difficult to realize. The demonstration data is calculated out based on the statistics which uses administrative units as the basic calculation units, rather than the single calculation of each expressway's O-D volume. The monetization of expressway's environment externality will be the improved emphasis and basis of the assessment system.

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    福建省综合交通可达性格局及其与制造业空间分布的关系分析
    陈松林,陈进栋,韦素琼
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 807-815.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.807
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1141KB)

    以福建省为研究区域,县(市)为研究单元,采用加权平均旅行时间指标,分析公路(区内与区外联系)、铁路、港口、航空等交通方式及区域综合交通网络的可达性空间格局,探讨各交通网络空间分布的均衡性。选取制造业中的28个行业,从资源集约度角度将其分为资源密集型制造业、劳动密集型制造业、资本密集型制造业,利用平均集中率测量产业集聚度。引入要素禀赋条件、外部性、规模经济、制度政策4个方面13个变量对福建制造业空间分布影响因素进行回归分析。结果表明:福建省路网可达性由沿海中部向四周降低,其中公路区内可达性呈明显的圈层结构,区外可达性为“井”字形分布,铁路、港口和机场形成以福州、厦门—泉州为可达性高值区的马鞍状格局,综合交通网络可达性呈带状分布。不同类型的制造业在空间分布格局上呈现不同的特征,制造业平均集中率高值区呈环状分布,而制造业集中率低值区呈点状分布,与交通可达性的“凹陷区”重合。可达性与制造业空间集聚呈现很强的相关性,并且与不同类型制造业空间集聚相关程度有所差异,与资源密集型制造业空间集聚相关性相对较低。此外,农业丰裕度、自然资源禀赋、知识溢出效应、相对企业规模等其他变量对制造业空间分布也有显著影响。


    Focusing on Fujian Province with counties and cities as the basic research units, the study uses weighted average travel time as an indicator to analyze the accessibility patterns of highways within Fujian Province and those between Fujian and other provinces, as well as those of railways, ports and civil aviations respectively. Then, with the result of these patterns, the accessibility patterns of integrated transportation are elaborated. Finally, the proportionality of transportation space distribution is discussed. Basing on classification method of resources intensive, the selected 28 kinds of manufacturing industries can be classified into resources-intensive manufacturing, labor-intensive manufacturing and capital-intensive manufacturing. Then by Average Concentration Rate, industry centralization is calculated. Selecting 13 variables in the aspects of endowment factors, external economies, scale economies and policies to do regression analysis of influencing factors on the spatial distribution of manufacturing. The results indicate that: the accessibility of integrated transportation in Fujian Province decreases from the central coastal area to the periphery with the accessibility of highways within Fujian Province presenting an obvious circle structure, and the accessibility of highways between Fujian and other provinces taking the shape of "﹟", while railways, ports, and airports form a saddle-shaped pattern of high accessibility around Fuzhou-Xiamen-Quanzhou area. The integrated transportation net shows a zonal distribution. The different types of manufacturing present the different characteristics in spatial distribution: the high value area of manufacturing average concentration rate show an annular distribution and the low value area is distributed dottedly, which coincide with the "sag area" of transportation accessibility. There are strong positive correlations between transportation accessibility and manufacturing industries agglomeration, but the correlation degree is different in various types of manufacturing. For example, transportation accessibility has a low correlative rate with the resources-intensive manufacturing. In addition, the determinative factors of manufacturing industries agglomeration in Fujian Province also include agriculture abundance, natural resources endowments, knowledge spillovers and relative enterprise scale .

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    区域物质流通虚拟网络研究——以金沙江流域中段为例
    夏既胜,何文通,李虹霖
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 816-821.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.816
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (605KB)

    受各种地理环境要素的制约,地形复杂区域产品、能源、生产工具等物质的流通阻力较大,建立基于阻力最小的物质流通网,对于区域发展具有重要意义。以GIS软件为分析平台,选择地形复杂的金沙江流域中段为研究对象,选取地形、地貌、植被覆盖、土地利用类型等为物质流通阻力评价指标,采用专家打分及灰色关联等评价方法,建立区域内阻力最小的物质流通虚拟网络。在该网络的基础上,分析区域内各城市的物质流通性,探讨出建立地形复杂地区最佳物质流通虚拟网络的方法。物质流通虚拟网络可为区域内道路、管道、电网的最佳线路选址提供科学依据;城市间物质流通性分析结果可为区域规划提供参考。


    This article focuses on the establishment of virtual network for regional material circulation. Constrained by a variety of geographical environment factors, circulation of materials in the region with complex terrain is not so easy, which include goods, energy, and production tools. Thus, it is of great importance for regional development to establish a material circulation network with the smallest resistance. Virtual network for regional material circulation utilizes the shortest path analysis function of Geographic Information System (GIS) to generate, display and simulate the path network for regional material circulation with the smallest resistance under the influences of various geographic environment factors. In this study, GIS software is utilized as the analysis platform, Jinsha River basin (middle section) with complex terrain is taken as the case study object, factors such as geomorphology, topography, vegetation coverage, and land use types are selected as the indexes to evaluate the resistance of material circulation. And expert evaluation and grey correlation analysis are employed as the evaluation methods to establish the virtual network for regional material circulation with smallest resistance in the region. In addition, the material circulation among the various cities in the region is further analyzed based on this network. Studies and discussions are conducted to find out the method for establishing the optimum virtual network for material circulation in the region with complex terrain. As a result, the virtual network for material circulation can be provided as a scientific basis for the optimum route selection of roads, pipelines, and power grids in the region, and the analysis result of material circulation among cities can be provided as a reference for regional planning.

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    教育公共服务设施可达性评价与规划——以江苏省仪征市高级中学为例
    韩艳红,陆玉麒
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 822-827.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.822
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (444KB)

    学校是公共服务设施的重要组成部分,其空间分布以及可达性的优劣,直接影响到受教育者接受教育的机会和方便程度。把可达性的概念引入到教育公共设施的规划中,利用Mapinfo公司的控件MapX和Borland公司的可视化编程语言Delphi,开发了基于时间最短的路径选择信息系统,生成了学校可达性的等时线图和学校服务范围图,通过该系统可直观地看到区域内任何一点到达学校所花费的最短时间以及通过的路径。以江苏省仪征市的高级中学为例,运用该系统对高级中学的可达性进行了评价,并提出了其规划方案。


    School is one of the important elements in the public service facilities. Its spatial distribution and accessibility will affect the chance and convenience of students to go to school. The accessibility plays an important role in the planning location of schools. On the one hand, we can use it to adjust schools which exist already, on the other hand, we can use it to choose location for new schools. So the article takes the accessibility into account in schools planning. Using MapX and Delphi, the article develops information system, by which the route can be chosen based on the shortest time and the isograms and service converge maps of schools accessibility can be generated. By this way, the time and route of any point in region to go to school can be attained. Based on traffic network, this article evaluates the accessibility of senior high schools in Yizheng City. Some conclusions and suggestions are drawn as follows. The shortest time to go to school is less than 30 min. The most accessible regions are distributed mainly around Zhenzhou Town, Chenji Town and Puxi Town whose accessibilities are less than 10 min. Outward the three towns, the accessibility weakened gradually. The worst accessible regions are distributed in Hexiang Village, Qianke Village and Shuangjian Village of Dayi Town, Lixin Village of Chenji Town, Changshan Village of Qinshan Town, Shuangqiao Village of Puxi Town, Fangqiao Village of Xinji Town, whose accessibilities are between 20 min and 30 min. As for the capacity of senior high schools, the capacities of Nanjing Normal University Affiliated 2nd Senior High School, Jingcheng Senior High School, Chenji Senior High School and Puxi Senior High School have not met present students' demands, but Yizheng Senior High School,Yizheng 2nd Senior High School and Yizheng Industry Senior High School have a surplus capability. At last, the article proposes some planning assumptions, such as combining Yizheng Senior High School and Yizheng 2nd Senior High School, improving the conditions of Chenji Senior High School, increasing investment appropriately to Nanjing Normal University Affiliated 2nd Senior High School, Jingcheng Senior High School and Puxi Senior High School.

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    基于GWR模型的城市住宅地价的时空演变研究——以江苏省为例
    张静,张丽芳,濮励杰,管驰明
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 828-834.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.828
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1154KB)

    江苏省地价总体变化特征分析的基础上,构建城市住宅地价的GWR模型,对1997、2005和2008年3个时间点的江苏省城市住宅地价影响因素的空间变异特征进行了探究,揭示了各因素因子对住宅地价的影响程度和区域差异,丰富和发展了城市地价影响因素时空变化规律的理论研究。研究结果表明:① 距中心城市距离对住宅地价的影响呈负相关,3年回归系数绝对值的平均值逐渐增大且高值分布区域逐渐扩大;② GDP与住宅地价呈正相关,GDP对住宅地价影响最大地区逐渐北移,且高值区域逐渐减小;③ 城镇化率与住宅地价呈正相关,从空间看,沿江地区是苏南、苏中两大经济板块的纽带,对住宅地价影响变大,从时间看,城镇化率对住宅地价的影响逐步减小;④ 对外交通状况对住宅地价贡献为正,南部地区回归系数较高,向北系数逐渐减小,从时间角度看,其影响程度逐步增大;⑤ 从业人口数量对住宅地价的贡献为正,南部地区回归系数较高,向北回归系数绝对值逐渐减小,从业人口数量对苏南影响比苏北大;⑥ 房地产投资总额北部地区回归系数较高,向南系数逐渐减小,苏北房地产投资总额对住宅地价影响高于苏南地区。


    Based on the analysis of general variation characteristics of land price in Jiangsu Province, this article attempts to build a GWR model for residential land price in urban areas designed to study the factors responsible and the spatial variation characteristics in 1997, 2005 and 2008. The study reveals the degrees of the influential factors and regional differences on land prices, and explores the theoretical research of spatio-temporal variation laws of the factors that contribute to urban land price. The results show: 1) the distance from a central city to residential lands produces negative impacts on the land price, and the average of the absolute value of the regression coefficient increases gradually over the three years with a gradual expansion of high value areas; 2) GDP is positively correlated to residential land price, and the regions where GDP has the most powerful influences on residential land price shift gradually to the northern part of Jiangsu Province; and the number of areas with high value reduces gradually; 3) urbanization rate shows a positive correlation with residential land price, in the sense that from spatial perspective. In the areas along Changjiang River which link the central and southern parts of Jiangsu Province, urbanization rate exerts increasing impacts on residential land price, whereas, from temporal perspective, urbanization rate produces decreasing effects on residential land price; 4) outbound traffic condition shows a positive impact on residential land price, and the regression coefficient in the southern part is fairly high but gradually decreases from the south to the north; from temporal perspective, its influence shows an upward trend; 5) the number of employees is positively correlated to residential land price; the regression coefficient in the southern part of Jiangsu Province is fairly high and the absolute value of regression coefficient gradually increases from the south to the north; besides, the number of employees produces more effects on the southern part than on the northern part of Jiangsu Province; 6) the regression coefficient of the total real estate investment in the northern part is fairly high, and it gradually declines from the northern part to the southern part; the total real estate investment is more influential to the residential land price of the northern part than to that of the southern part of Jiangsu Province.

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    社会关系嵌入与产业转移的区位选择——宁波服装业案例研究
    谭文柱
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 835-839.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.835
    摘要   PDF (387KB)

    从企业社会关系网络嵌入的视角,以宁波服装企业和机构为访谈调研对象,追寻众多宁波服装企业早期发展的历史,研究上海与宁波两地基于历史原因形成的社会关系嵌入——“红帮师傅”对上海服装业转移中区位选择的影响。研究发现,上海国有服装企业中宁波籍“红帮师傅”,是理解上海服装企业在向外转移加工业务的过程中为何选择宁波服装企业的关键因素。在宁波服装业的早期发展阶段,“红帮师傅”充当了宁波服装企业与上海服装企业建立业务联系的桥梁,不仅将自己所在服装企业的加工业务介绍给宁波的服装企业,还利用自己的社会网络,将上海其它服装企业引荐给宁波服装企业,使宁波服装企业从上海获得了大量的加工业务。另外,“红帮师傅”还亲自或引荐其它服装技师为宁波的服装企业提供必要的技术指导。对理解非经济因素对产业转移区位选择的影响提供了一个有意义的实证案例,为欠发达地区吸引发达地区的产业转移提供了一种新的思路。


    The industrial transfer theories based on cost difference analysis explain the driving forces and direction of industrial transfer at the macro level, but failed to explain in the geographical location of enterprises in the transfers. In fact, location selection of enterprises in the transfers do not only depend on economic factors such as labor cost, tariff cost, and transportation cost, but also the different social networks of the places where it migrates out and resettles in. From the perspective of the “embeddeness” social network of the enterprises, this article analyzes the role of social network in the transfer of garment industry from Shanghai to Ningbo. It finds out that the “Hong Bang Masters” working in Shanghai garment industry has been a key factor for the transfer of garment industry in Shanghai. In the early development of garment industry in Ningbo, “Hong Bang Masters” was the bridge between Shanghai and Ningbo garment enterprises. They had not only introduced processing business to the Ningbo garment enterprises, but also established networks between Shanghai and Ningbo garment enterprises, thus, helping the Ningbo garment enterprises obtain a large amount of processing businesses. Besides, these “Hong Bang Masters” had provided technical guidance to the Ningbo garment enterprises in person or by introducing other garment technicians.

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    石羊河流域地区城镇空间扩展格局演化
    石培基,王祖静,李巍
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 840-845.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.840
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (623KB)

    基于石羊河流域地区土地利用综合数据,结合多种模型包括间隙度指数、相关分形维数、扩展强度指数、空间关联模型、空间变差函数,从时间和空间尺度上研究石羊河流域地区城镇建设用地扩展过程与格局。结果表明:20多a来,石羊河流域地区城镇用地以市区和县城为中心向周边辐射,同时沿祁连山边缘海拔2 500 m以下石羊大河沿岸和045丹拉高速、312国道轴线集聚,流域零散分布的乡镇用地变化不大。城镇用地以显著的“点-轴”模式扩展,形成内陆地区城市独特的扩展极核和扩张轴线,为石羊河流域各种规划的编制提供参考。


    Urban spatial expansion is an inevitable result of regional development. It is important to find out the expansion mechanism so that we can control the region in harmony. Based on the land use data of Shiyang River Basin, combined with a variety of models including lacunarity index, fractal correlation coefficient, expansion intensity index, spatial association measurements and semivarigram, the investigation of the process and pattern of urban spatial expansion from space and time scales was analyzed in the paper. The results showed a urban spatial expansion in Shiyang River Basin in 20 years. And it concentrated along the Shiyang River , Danla Highway 045 and State Road NO.312. There is a little change of township land. It expanded with "point - axis" mode significantly. That becomes the unique expansion of inland cities. And a reference about Shiyang River Basin of various regional planning was provided in the article.

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    基于情景模拟的天津市滨海新区2020年暴雨内涝风险评估
    胡蓓蓓,周俊,王军,许世远,孟伟庆
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 846-852.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.846
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (725KB)

    基于多灾种复合动态风险评估理论,依据滨海新区2020年人口规划、土地利用规划以及社会经济发展计划,根据地面沉降和海平面上升预测结果设计了最不利、适中和最理想化三种情景;在此基础上,自行开发了基于GIS的洪水淹没区计算模块,模拟计算不同重现期暴雨内涝的淹没范围、淹没深度及淹没损失。结果表明: 2020年,发生1 000 a一遇、200 a一遇和50 a一遇暴雨时,在最不利的情景一下:天津市滨海新区分别将有32.73%,29.34%和26.01%的土地不同程度受淹,受淹人口分别为338万、305万和264万,淹没损失分别达220.89亿元、181.39亿元和139.12亿元。


    Natural disaster is the hotspot question in international society and academy. Coastal cities are important areas and strategic focus of people convergence, national economy and society development. However, natural disasters occur easily and frequently in these areas. Tianjin Binhai New Area (TBNA) lies in the center of the Bohai Rim Region. Following the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone and Pudong New Area, TBNA becomes a new polarization of economic development which drives regional growth. Affected by physical-geographical conditions and human activities, however, TBNA is one of the areas where the loss from natural disasters is huge and fatal in the coastal areas in China. In view of the main causing factor, the numerical model of land subsidence was established. With three groundwater extraction scenarios, the computer program was compiled to predict the land subsidence in the process of dynamic changes of groundwater level. Based on the complex dynamic multi-hazard risk assessment theory, in accordance with population planning, land use planning and socio-economic development plan of TBNA, and according to prediction of land subsidence and sea level rise, three scenarios were designed, that was the most unfavorable, moderate, and the most ideal scenarios. Pearson-Ⅲ distribution method was used to calculate intensity of the different frequency’s maximum rainstorms in 24 hours by rainstorm data of the past 40 years at 14 hydrological stations in TBNA and its nearby regions. Inverse distance weight and Disjunctive Kriging method were respectively employed to interpolate the different frequency’s maximum rainstorms in 24 hours. The calculation model of flood submerged area was therefore established by GIS. The submerged area and depth were calculated by the module of “non-source flood”. On the basis of the loss rate of different submerged depth, the submerged loss was gained. The results showed that, by 2020, under Scenario 1, the submerged area is 32.73%, 29.34% and 26.01%; inundated population accounts for 338×104, 305×104 and 264×104; and the loss of submerged is 220.89×108yuan, 181.39×108yuan and 139.12×108yuan respectively induced by torrential rain with return period of 1 000, 200, and 50 years. Under Scenario 2, the submerged area is 30.70%, 27.47% and 24.23%; inundated population accounts for 318×104, 289×104 and 248×104; and the loss of submerged is 199.68×108yuan, 150.31×108yuan and 126.03×108yuan respectively induced by torrential rain with return period of 1000, 200, and 50 years. Under Scenario 3, the submerged area is 29.06%, 25.83% and 22.58%; inundated population accounts for 300×104, 268×104 and 224×104; and the loss of submerged is 174.48×108yuan, 135.29×108yuan and 111.53×108yuan respectively induced by torrential rain with return period of 1 000, 200, and 50 years.

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    全球气候变化下秦岭南北气温变化特征
    李双双,延军平,万佳
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 853-858.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.853
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (925KB)

    选取秦岭南麓1 000 m划分方案,运用气候倾向率、线性拟合方程、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、小波分析等气候数理统计方法,分析秦岭南北气温变化特征。结果表明:近50 a秦岭南北气候变化具有同步性,增温趋势明显;在气温突变方面,关中地区气温突变(1995年)早于陕南(1998年)。通过近10 a秦岭南北气温时空格局演变分析,认为秦岭地区气温变化符合全球变化规律,其变化是自然因素和人类活动共同作用的结果,在小尺度上人类活动干扰尤为明显(特别体现在快速城市化影响气温上升)。


    Qinling range has been recognized as the geo-ecological boundary between subtropical and warm-temperate zones in the eastern China, which is the advantage of regional area to study global change. This article, based on the meteorological data of the 61 meteorological stations in the northern and southern regions of the Qinling Mountains (1961-2009), selecting the contour 1 000 m in southern piedmont as the ecological boundary line, analyzed the fundamental characteristics, spatio-temporal distribution and reasons of temperature change using methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall mutation test, analysis of wavelets, Kriging interpolation and other Climate diagnosis method. The results show that the average temperature, extreme high and low temperature in the south and north Qinling Mountains were in increase trend, but there was a certain difference in the sharp change time and range. The tilt rate of annual average temperature in the south of Qinling Mountains is the lowest (0.121℃/10 a),then is in the north of Qinling Mountains (0.203℃/10 a),and they all lower than the other regions of China (0.26±0.032℃/10 a). The temperature mutation of the north of Qinling Mountains (1995) occurred earlier than that of the sorth (1998), which was later than the other regions of China (1993). Based the climate characteristics, it was found that the influence of climate change mainly reflects nature and human activities.

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    苏州下垫面格局演变及其局地热环境效应
    祝善友,张桂欣,刘莹
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 859-865.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.859
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (679KB)

    以苏州为研究区域,选择1986年Landsat TM、2006年Landsat ETM+遥感图像为主要数据源,分别提取下垫面类型和地表温度,研究景观格局指数的粒度效应,并在适宜粒度下分析景观格局的演变特征,进而研究其与热环境变化之间的关系。结果表明,研究区20多年来景观破碎化程度、斑块形状复杂程度与景观多样性变大,而聚集程度变低,热场变异指数增大区域的景观格局指数变化更为明显,这说明下垫面格局演变对热环境变化具有一定的影响作用。


    One of the significant environmental consequences of urbanization is the urban heat island (UHI), which is associated with underlying land surface types and land use patterns. Selecting Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data of Suzhou City obtained on 1986 and 2006 separately, the paper used the maximum likelihood classification method to extract underlying surface types based on raw visual and near infrared bands, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) and digital elevation model (DEM) data. Then landscape pattern indices changed with different grain sizes were discussed and its variation characteristics were analyzed within the optimum grain size. Furthermore, land surface temperature (LST) was retrieved from thermal infrared bands by an emissivity-modified model and then it was used to get distribution of thermal field variance indices. Lastly the paper discussed the relationship between changes of landscape pattern indices and variation of thermal environment. Research results show that landscape pattern indices depend on grain size clearly, the most appropriate spatial grain size is from 120 m to 150 m. There is an evident development of the UHI, combined with year 1986, thermal field variance index increase in 2006 as a whole. Fragmentation degree, the shape complexity of the patches and landscape diversity increase while the clustering degree decrease, and furthermore the landscape pattern indices change more clearly in regions where the thermal field variance indices increase, which indicate that change of underlying surface pattern has an effect on local thermal environment.

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    华北地区高温日数的气候特征及变化规律
    施洪波
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 866-871.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.866
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (468KB)

    基于1960~2009年华北地区90个台站逐日最高气温数据,采用趋势分析等方法分析近50 a华北地区高温日数的时空变化特征。结果表明,近50 a华北地区高温日数以海拔高度800 m等值线为界呈现南多北少的分布特点,南部主要呈减少趋势,北部主要呈增加趋势。同时它显现出明显的“多-少-多”年代际变化特征,与1960年代相比,2000年代高温日数在7月稍增加,5和8月有所减少。近50 a华北地区累计高温过程频次呈微弱的减少趋势,南北部高温过程集中的年代和月份也有所不同。


    Based on the daily maximum air temperature data from 90 meteorological stations in the period 1960-2009, the climatic characteristics and the spatio-temporal variation of high temperature days (HTDs) in North China were analyzed by using the statistical methods including trend analysis. The results show that the HTDs are more in the south and less in the north on conditions that 800-meters elevation contour serves the boundary. There exist two high value centers, which is located in the south of Hebei Province and the regions from southwest of Shanxi Province to Zhengzhou and Xuchang of Henan Province respectively. The most annual mean HTDs reach 25.7d, which occurs in Yuncheng of Shanxi Province. The HTDs are mainly on the decrease in the south of North China and on the increase in the north. The most obvious decrease in HTDs occurs in Kaifeng of Henan Province and the linear trend is -2.8d/10a. The most obvious increase in HTDs occurs in Hequ of Shanxi Province and the linear trend is 1.51d/10a. The HTDs in recent 50 years has a distinct decadal evolution of increasing-decreasing-increasing. The high temperature mainly occurs during May to August, especially in June and July. Compared with the HTDs in the 1960s, those in the 2000s are slightly on the increase during July and on the decrease during May and August. The accumulated high temperature process (HTP) is on the detectable decrease, while the moderate HTP is on the detectable increase. As far as the HTP lasting day number more than 5 days is concerned, the number in Beijing is less than Erenhot and the number in Zhengzhou is 3.3 times as many as that in Beijing. There exist some difference in the era and month of HTP between the south and the north .

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    横断山区土壤相对湿度时空分异
    朱国锋,蒲焘,何元庆,张涛,杜建括,辛惠娟,牛贺文
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 872-877.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.872
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (694KB)

    以1992~2010年横断山区16个观测站土壤相对湿度资料为基础,通过Kriging插值法分析土壤相对湿度季节分异和空间分异特征。结果表明:横断山区年土壤相对湿度自1992年以来整体呈波动增加趋势,年际变化倾向率为0.51% /a;横断山区土壤相对湿度表现为西南和东北部较高,东南和西北部较低,中部土壤相对湿度增加趋势强于边缘,深层土壤的相对湿度整体大于浅层土壤。春、夏季土壤相对湿度增加趋势比秋、冬季明显。


    Based on soil relative moisture data in ten days from 16 observation stations of Hengduan Mountainous Region in 1992-2010, spatial and temporal changes of soil relative moisture were analyzed in the paper with Kriging interpolation method. The results showed that the soil relative moisture in Hengduan Mountainous Region had been in a increasing tendency since 1992 with the inclination rate of 0.51%/a. The soil relative moisture were high relatively in the southwest and the northeast of Hengduan Mountains whereas low in the southeast and the northwest. The values of soil relative moisture in deep soils were higher than that in shallow soil. As far as the seasonal change, the increasing trend of soil relative moisture in spring and summer were greater than that in autumn and winter.

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    江汉平原12.76 cal. ka B.P.以来环境干湿变化的高分辨率研究
    李枫,吴立,朱诚,孙伟,王晓翠,孟华平,刘辉,齐士峥,龚琪岚,朱光耀,周凤琴,李溯源,欧阳杰
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 878-884.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.878
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (629KB)

    选择位于江汉平原的JZ-2010湖相沉积剖面为研究对象,利用AMS14C测年建立江汉平原12.76 cal. ka B.P.以来环境演变的时间序列。对湖相沉积物中元素Rb和Sr的差异分布、Rb/Sr值、Ti元素含量以及磁化率等多项环境代用指标的综合分析表明:江汉平原12.76 cal. ka B.P.以来环境干湿变化经历了晚冰期由偏干转向偏湿波动、全新世开始湿度增强、全新世中期偏湿到湿润再至干湿波动,全新世晚期至现代偏湿到偏干的过程。磁化率波动与江汉平原新石器时代各文化类型出现或转型相关。江汉平原环境干湿变化体现东亚季风环流影响,驱动机制主要是北半球夏季太阳辐射变化;还受到东北、北、西三面环山而东南面向夏季风倾斜开放的地势影响。


    Six AMS radiocarbon ages combined with the concentration and distribution of element Rb, Sr and Ti, Rb/Sr ratio and magnetic susceptibility are utilized to reconstruct the moisture evolution in the Jianghan Plain during the last 12.76 ka. The multi-proxy integrated indicators of the regional moisture conditions turned from dry to wet after the Late Glacial and progressively became better and reached its optimum period until the mid-Holocene, however, punctuated by several humidity decrease phases. Begin with the severe dry event around 4.42-4.00 cal.kaBP, the environment was dry again in the Jianghan Plain as a whole. It can be inferred that the evolution of moisture condition in the study area was dominated by the East Asian monsoon system which likely be driven by the solar insolation changes on the Northern Hemisphere. As the first time to apply the Rb/Sr ratio and Ti concentration in tracing moisture evolution in a region with typical subtropical humid climate, this study highlights the different effects and consequences of the proxies throughout the paleoenvironment process. Also the regional characteristics of continuously subsided since the Cretaceous period as well as the topography opening down to southeast. What’s more the variations of magnetic susceptibility are well coincided with the transition of Neolithic culture of the Jianghan Plain.

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    岷江上游潜在性泥石流堰塞湖危害及判识
    柳金峰,游勇,陈兴长
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 885-891.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.885
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (698KB)

    汶川地震造成泥石流形成条件的改变,其次生灾害堰塞湖的危害已开始显现。如何对震后潜在性泥石流堰塞湖进行判识,成为迫切需要解决的问题。选取岷江上游映秀至汶川段为研究区,通过分析震后泥石流形成条件的变化、典型泥石流堰塞湖的危害及松散物质储量,选取潜在性泥石流堰塞湖的判识指标,利用模糊物元可拓模型,建立潜在性泥石流堰塞湖的综合判识模式。通过判识,研究区形成泥石流堰塞湖可能性高的一级支沟有17条,主要集中分布在映秀镇至草坡乡段,此段将是今后受堰塞湖危害的高危地段。


    The Wenchuan earthquake caused numerous landslides and collapses that provided abundant loose solid materials for future mobilization as debris flows. The formation conditions for debris flows were changed consequently. Debris flows will be very active for a long time in the affected area. Their secondary disaster, barrier lake, is beginning to appear. Therefore, it is urgent to identify those debris flow gullies which are potential to form barrier lakes following the environmental changes caused by the earthquake. This paper selected the upper Min River from Yinxiu to Wenchuan as study area, analyzed the changed formation conditions of debris flows and the damages of a typical debris flow barrier lake, and interpreted the loose solid materials from TM satellite images and aerial photographs. Then, the identification factors were selected and classified based on the factor independence analysis. At last, the fuzzy matter-element extension theory was used to construct a model to identify potential barrier lakes. The potential future increase in debris flow activity relates directly to the great increase in loose materials. The interpretation results indicated that the area of the landslides and collapses caused by the earthquake is 39.40 km2, accounting for 6.97% of the total study area. Assuming 55% of the landslide and collapse area were their deposition area and the average deposition depth was 10 m, the volume of the loose solid materials can be estimated as 2.13×108m3 which was sufficient for debris flow formation. Based on the factor independence analysis, the volume of the loose solid materials per unit area, the discharge ratio between the debris flow gully and the main river, the slope gradient of debris flow channel, the main river width, and the included angle between the debris flow gully and the main river were determined as identification factors. According to the multi-factor comprehensive identification, among the 55 first-grade gullies, 17 gullies have high probabilities for potential debris flow barrier lakes, 15 have moderate probabilities, and 23 gullies have low probabilities. The most likely debris flow gullies for forming barrier lakes mainly distribute in the middle-to-lower reaches of the study area (Yingxiu Town to Caopo Town), and those with moderate and low probabilities are mainly distributed in the upper reaches of the study area (Caopo Town to Wenchuan County). In addition, among the 17 potential debris flow gullies with high probabilities, 4 gullies already yielded barrier lakes during the 2008-2010 rainy seasons. The remaining debris flow gullies will produce barrier lakes in the future with high probability.

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    新月形沙丘表面100 cm高度内风沙流输沙量垂直分布函数分段拟合
    韩致文,缑倩倩,杜鹤强,孙家欢
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 892-897.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.892
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (439KB)

    为研究新月形沙丘表面不同层位风沙流输沙量的垂直分布函数,实测了塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地典型新月形沙丘表面100 cm高度内(以1 cm分隔)的输沙量。分段拟合分析表明:新月形沙丘迎风坡脚输沙量垂直分布规律不完全服从指数函数,出现与戈壁风沙流结构特征相似的“象鼻效应”,在0~3 cm区间内输沙量逐渐增大,3 cm以上输沙量随高度呈指数函数衰减;沙丘顶部0~10 cm区间输沙量随高度呈指数函数衰减,10 cm以上呈二次函数衰减;沙丘左翼端输沙量随高度呈幂函数分布,沙丘右翼端0~20 cm内以指数函数衰减,20 cm以上呈三次函数衰减;沙丘背风坡脚风沙流输沙量在0~60 cm和60 cm以上分别呈不同形式的三次函数分布。


    In order to study the vertical distribution function of the sand transport rate of wind-sand flow at different height above the barchan dune surface, the sand transport rates of the isolated barchan dune within 100 cm height with 1 cm division in the interior of the Taklimakan Desert were measured. The piecewise fitting results show that: 1) the vertical distribution pattern of sand transport rate at the windward slope base of the dune did not entirely abide by the exponential function but exhibited an “elephant nose effect” similar to the structural characteristics of the wind-sand flow over the Gobi desert surface. The sand transport rate showed a gradually increased trend in the height of 0-3 cm, but above 3 cm it exhibited an exponential function reduction with the height; 2) The sand transport rate within 0-10 cm above the dune crest exhibited an exponential function reduction with the height ,but above 10 cm it showed a quadratic function reduction; 3) The sand transport rate at the left-wing end of the dune showed a power function distribution with the height, but in 0-20 cm at the right-wing end it showed an exponential function reduction and above 20 cm it showed a cubic function reduction; 4) The sand transport rate of wind-sand flow in 0-60 cm height and above 60 cm over the leeward slope base of the dune exhibited a different forms of cubic function distribution respectively and the sand transport rate showed a parabola-shaped vertical distribution. both the dune shapes and the dynamic character of the wind-sand flow affected the vertical distribution of the sand transport rate of wind-sand flow over the barchan dune surface. Since the windward slope base and surrounding zone were a net erosion zone, sand grains were coarse and sand supply was relatively insufficient, unsaturated wind-sand flow formed and the increase in sand transport rate with height did not entirely show an exponential function reduction. The distribution of sand transport rate at the ends of the two wings of the dune was asymmetric, this is mainly because the asymmetric shapes resulted in different proportional saltating and suspending sand amounts and the difference in wind velocity pulse in the horizontal and vertical directions. The difference in wind velocity at the leeward slope base and the crest of the barchan dune resulted in eddy flow and caused part of sand particles from the dune crest to deposit at the leeward slope, part of sand particles was transported in suspension and the transport rate gradually increased with increasing height, when the height reached a threhold (determined by both the dune height and the dynamic intensity of wind-sand flow) the sand transport rate reached a maximum value, and then it gradually decreased, exhibiting a parabolic distribution.

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    黄河源区多年冻土温度及厚度研究新进展
    罗栋梁,金会军,林琳,何瑞霞,杨思忠,常晓丽
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (7): 898-904.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.898
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (858KB)

    利用新布设的冻土孔及原有冻土资料,分析黄河源区冻土温度和厚度的空间分布。源区实测多年冻土年均地温最低为-1.81℃,冻土最厚74 m,均位于巴颜喀拉山北坡的查拉坪。214国道 (K445-K604段) 沿线多为高温多年冻土 (年均地温> -1℃),但巴山北坡海拔4 520 m、布青山海拔4 300 m以上,年均地温低于-0.5℃。巴山北坡海拔4 610 m、布青山海拔4 420 m以上,年均地温低于-1℃。巴山北坡海拔每升高100 m, 年均地温减少0.47~0.75℃,冻土厚度增加16~25 m;纬度向北增加1°,年均地温减少0.85℃,冻土厚度增加20~30 m。


    Based on data and information from newly set-up and original permafrost boreholes, the permafrost temperature and thickness in the Source Area of the Huanghe River were analyzed. The lowest permafrost temperature at depth of zero annual amplitude (DZZA) (so-called the MAGT) in-situ is -1.81℃, and deepest permafrost is 74 m, both are located on the north slope of the Bayan Har Mountains. Most permafrost along the National Highway No.214 (K445-K604) is warm permafrost (with the MAGT>-1℃). However, with altitude higher than 4 520 m in the north slope of the Bayan Har Mountains, and higher than 4 300 m in the Buqing Mountains, the MAGT is lower than -0.5℃. With altitude higher than 4 610 m in the north slope of the Bayan Har Mountains, and higher than 4 420 m in the Buqing Mountains, the MAGT is lower than -1℃. In the Bayan Har Mountains, the MAGT decreases with altitude at rates of 0.47-0.75℃/100 m, and permafrost thickness increase 16-25 m/100 m. Besides, the MAGT decreases with latitude at rates of 0.85℃ and permafrost thickness increase about 20-30 m per degree.

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