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  • 地理科学
      2015年, 第35卷, 第10期 刊出日期:2015-10-20 上一期    下一期
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    中速增长:中国经济的可持续发展
    陆大道
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1207-1219.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1207
    摘要   HTML   PDF (1591KB)

    中国实现了国民经济的长期高速增长,但已面临着突出的结构性难题。针对这一问题,不循以投资、消费和出口论证未来经济增长速度的传统路径,而对支持经济增长的资源(能源)、环境(承载力)及建立在资源环境基础上的城镇化和发展模式等支撑系统能力进行了分析。在这些分析基础上,进行了综合集成研究并得出结论:中国经济将较快地进入中速增长。中速经济增长,将为建设经济强国和实现中国和谐社会提供重要的机遇和空间。


    China’s national economy has experienced a long period of rapid growth, but prominent structural problems have already appeared. Instead of following the traditional research approach of investigating the speed of future economic growth through investment, consumption and export, this article analyzes the capacities of systems which support economic growth, including resource (energy), environment (bearing capacity) and the urbanization and development patterns on the basis of resources and environment. It includes seven aspects:It points out that the long period of high-speed-but-low-efficiency economic growth has led to the structural problems at the current stage. It analyzes the serious situation of China’s environmental pollution. It argues that excessive consumption of natural resources may bring about severe national security issues. It indicates that urbanization is the most important supporting factor of the high-speed economic development of our country.It holds that the development patterns of “world factory” of low-end products and relying on investment which have been practiced for a long period of time are important concepts and supports of the high-speed economic development of China. It also argues that China has taken full advantage of backwardness which has limits in fact. Finally, based on practice and international experience, it analyzes the relationships between the speed of economic growth and employment, the influence of the country, and economic transformation briefly. Based on these analyses, a meta-synthetic research is conducted and the following conclusions are arrived at: China’s economic development will enter a stage of moderate-speed growth rather quickly. The economic growth of a moderate speed will create significant opportunities and spaces for building economic superpower and achieving a harmonious society in China.

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    中国航空联系的网络结构与区域差异
    王海江,苗长虹
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1220-1229.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1220
    摘要   HTML   PDF (13672KB)

    区域空间联系是不同客体之间基于空间法则下的相互作用现象,航空联系是诸多空间联系的一种。依据中国国内航班运营信息数据,运用基于O-D联系网络的GIS空间分析法,通过在大尺度数据空间内刻画每一条运营航线,深入解析全国通航中心城市间(不含港澳台)航空联系的网络结构,并与按重力模型计算的空间联系进行对比,分运距区段绘制中国城市空间相互作用联系与航空联系网络结构图谱,深入揭示航空联系的空间相互作用本质。进而分析东、中、西部及东北4区域间航空联系的网络结构差异,揭示中国航空联系的网络结构及区域结构特征。研究发现,城市航空联系网络与人口、经济之间的空间相互作用高度吻合,大城市集聚特征显著,空间分布较不平衡。依据进出港航班数量,可将通航中心城市划分为全国性、区域性、省域及地方性中心4个等级,其中北京、上海、广州为全国性中心。城市航空联系主要集中在600~2 000 km空间距离范围内,总体上服从空间距离衰减规律。全国航空客流的区域分布极不平衡,东部航空运输地位极其突出,西部相对较强,中部与东北相对较弱。


    Regional spatial links is based on the interactivity phenomenon between different objects space, the aviation links is one kinds of space relationship. According to the national domestic flights information data(data of Hongkong, Macau and Tiwan excluding), using GIS spatial analysis method base on O-D network, by means of carve every aviation links within the large dimension data space, this article analyses the network structures of the aviation links between national center cities which open to air traffic, compares with special links in the abstract, and display airline network structure and its spatial atlases by different transport distance in China. Research shows, aviation network distribution highly coincide with population and economic space in China, large city agglomeration characteristics is significantly, the whole spatial distribution is not balanced. Based on the flights data, central cities can be divided into 4 grades as national, regional, provincial and local center, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou as the national center. The study also found, national airlines mainly concentrated in the 600-2 000 km space distance range, and the aviation links network with the spatial links shows strong correlation during this range, indicates China’s domestic flights suitable travel during this spatial distance range, aviation links on the whole subject to spatial distance attenuating tendency. The regional distribution of the air passenger flows is extremely out-off-balance, the eastern air transport status is extremely prominent, the west is relatively strong, the central and northeast relatively weak. Air passenger flows interflows mainly concentrate on the eastern coastal to western, central and northeast regional, and extremely less between western, central and northeast regional.

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    基于交通信息流的江苏省流空间网络结构研究
    叶磊,段学军,欧向军
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1230-1237.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1230
    摘要   HTML   PDF (2211KB)

    基于江苏省13个地级市之间的公路、普速列车、高铁(CRH)与信息网络数据,从流空间视角对江苏省空间结构特征及其发展趋势进行综合分析与判断。结果表明:① 公路和普速铁路网络所展现的区域空间结构较为无序且影响范围有限,高铁网络则在大幅度拓展城市有效联系范围的同时凸显了发达地区的重要地位,而信息网络所反映的空间结构更加完整、有序与协调,代表了未来江苏省城市联系网络的发展方向;② 在高铁与信息网络的冲击下,流空间视角下的江苏省省域空间结构研究显出了一些区别于传统认知的新特征与变化趋势,如跳跃性的与非相邻地区产生主要联系、“等级+网络”的变化趋势等;③ 基于交通信息流的江苏省流空间结构呈现出明显的“中心-外围”格局,区域联系线密度由“沪宁线”向“沿海线”逐级递减,空间结构指数的计算结果也基本支持这一论断;④ 以高铁与信息为代表的新要素流对江苏省省域空间格局网络化的效率与公平产生了积极与消极两种影响,前者体现在改善区际可达性促进区域发展,后者体现在核心城市的“虹吸效应”。


    This article focuses on the differences of regional development and the changes of spatial structure resulted in the introduction of some new factors. Based on the data of road efficient, ordinary train, CRH and information network of 13 cities in Jiangsu Province, we analyses characteristics of provincial spatial structure and judge the development trend from the viewpoint of space of flows. The results are as follows: 1) The road and ordinary train network shows a relative disordered spatial structure and its impact scope is also limited. The CRH network highlights the important position of the developed areas and expands the effective range of the city along the Beijing Shanghai High-speed Rail greatly. The information network reflects a more complete, orderly and coordinated spatial structure, which also represent the future of the comprehensive linkage network in Jiangsu Province. 2) Under the impact of CRH and information network, the factors which dominates the regional spatial structure is not the space of places but the space of flows. So some new features and trends which are different from the traditional ones are found, such as connecting with non-adjacent cities and the tendency of “hierarchy+network”. 3) Different from the traditional judgments of spatial structure in Jiangsu Province, this paper which is based on the comprehensive linkage network of traffic and information flow presents the obvious pattern of "core-periphery". The regional connection density declines from HuNing line to the coastal line and the calculation of SSI also supports this assertion. 4) The new element flows generate positive and negative influence to the efficiency and justice of changes of the spatial pattern in Jiangsu province. The former reflects in the improvement of regional accessibility and promotes the development of regional economy and the latter reflects in the huge "siphon effect” in the core cities. But with the improvement of regional comprehensive connecting network and the strengthening of radiation in Shanghai-Nanjing axis, the cities in Middle-Jiangsu and North-Jiangsu will function more as the central cities and transfer stations on the other hand, which can also help the Yangtze River Delta to step into the era of network and polycentricity.

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    中国商品贸易结构不均衡性对地缘经济格局的影响
    孟德友,马颖忆,王晗,柯文前
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1238-1246.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1238
    摘要   HTML   PDF (1950KB)

    从国家对外经济联系中不同产业和产品结构的进出口贸易视角,考察中国(① 由于数据限制,本文研究区域为中国大陆地区,不包括港澳台地区。)地缘经济格局特征与影响。研究表明,中国商品贸易的总体态势是资源产品进口对富含能源国家的高依赖及工业制成品净出口对国际市场的强需求的不均衡特征;空间上则表现出国别、地区和方式较为单一且相对稳定,这可能会导致中国地缘经济与其他国家关联强度有一定的倾向性。集成资源产品进口和工业制成品进出口多指标显示,以工业制成品进出口为主的外向经济是影响中国当前地缘经济格局最主要的因素,而资源产品进口则次于工业制成品的作用,且石油和铁矿的作用高于天然气;在空间上形成了以重点经济发达国家与其外围周边国家为重点面域,联合重点能源国家为扩展的“面-点”地缘经济格局,中国进出口贸易地区大致形成了由近及远的多圈层结构,且关联度较低的国家镶嵌其中而表现出破碎化的特征。这一格局昭示未来一段时间中国地缘局势总体稳定,但受诸多不可控因素的影响,积极开辟和寻求多元化的地缘经济空间是有效应对对外经济联系突发事件的重要途径。


    Under the background of the geo-economic era, the economic cooperation and competition among countries will be the main melody of international relations. Based on the perspective of country’s foreign economic relations in different kinds of import and export trade of the industrial product structure, China’s geo-economic characteristics and the influence are probed in the article. The overall situation of China's industrial products import and export trade is that the country's high import dependence on those countries which are rich in energy resources products and the uneven characteristics of the strong demand of the international market. While in the spatial pattern, a single and relatively stable situation has been showed in country, region, and approach, which may lead China to be a certain bias with other countries on the geo-economics. The index integrated with import of resources products and import and export of manufactured goods reveals that the uppermost factor affecting China's current geo-economic pattern is the export-oriented economy that dominated by import and export of manufactured goods. While the role of import of resources products is inferior to that of manufactured goods, and the effect of oil and iron ore is higher than that of natural gas. In spatial distribution, "area point" geo-economic spatial pattern has been formed by developed countries and its peripheral neighboring countries as well as countries rich in energy resources. China has generally formed a multi-circle hierarchy pattern from the near to the distant. Countries with low correlation lie in them and show a fragmented feature. This pattern indicates that China's geo-political situation is generally stable for some time to come, while in consideration of the accumulation and evolution of many uncontrollable factors, actively exploring and seeking diversified geo-economic space is one of the effective ways to deal with foreign economic contact emergency.

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    湖泊型国家级风景名胜区的旅游效率特征、类型划分及其提升路径
    虞虎,陆林,李亚娟
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1247-1255.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1247
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    通过分析中国国家级湖泊风景名胜区的发展趋势和旅游效率,探讨湖泊风景名胜区的旅游效率总体特征、空间格局及类型,提出发展措施和建议。研究表明:① 湖泊风景名胜区的数量和旅游收益呈增长趋势,湖泊旅游资源开发已由著名的湖泊转向一般性湖泊,单体湖泊开发增多,湖泊旅游产品多元化。② 湖泊风景名胜区的旅游效率偏低,处于规模收益递增阶段的景区较多;分解效率中,规模效率较高,纯技术效率较低;纯技术效率对综合效率的解释能力强于规模效率,相关系数达到0.72,是导致综合效率偏低的主要因素。③ 根据效率得分将38个湖泊风景名胜区划分为技术进步提升型、资源配置能力提升型、规模投入提升型和综合提升型,提出了不同效率类型景区的提升路径。


    As one of the important tourism products, lake tourism develops rapidly. However, lake tourism research significantly lags behind its practice. This article analyzes the development trend and tourism efficiency of natural-level lake scenic area in China, and reveals the efficiency characteristics and spatial distribution characteristics. Based on which we divide it into four types, and finally puts forward the development measures and suggestions. The results show that: 1) the number and tourism income of natural-level lake scenic area are growing, lake tourism resource development has transferred from famous lake to general lakes. Tourism product types are diversified, while regional differences are fairly obvious. 2) The tourism efficiencies of natural-level lake scenic area are relatively low, the majority are still in the process of increasing returns of scales. Through decompositions of overall efficiency, the results show that the scale efficiencies are higher while pure technical efficiencies are lower. The interpretation ability of the pure technical efficiency on the overall efficiency ability is stronger than the scale efficiency, whose correlation coefficient is 0.722, is the major reason for the low overall efficiency. 3) We divide these 38 natural-level lake scenic area into four types according to the efficiency characteristics. The formation with higher efficiency is correlated with development period of lake resources, tourism capital investment and location conditions. The fourteen lake scenic spots have two of the following four characteristics at least. First of all, they are famous in the whole country or the whole region. As the high quality tourism resources, lakes can be developed to tourism products with large market competitiveness with higher output. Secondly, due to the early development period, traffic facilities and service facilities of the lake scenic spots are perfect, the experience and technology of product maintenance and marketing are more mature, also, the lake scenic spots are liable to contact with the neighboring scenic spots to form regional tourism routes. Thirdly, the moderate lake area is help to development, and the centralized production factors could enhance the level of construction operations. Last but not at least, the high economic development level of the cities which the 14 lake scenic spots rely on, the mature tourism market of these cities, the close distance between lake scenic spots and the central downtowns, as well as the good development of other types of tourism products nearby, make lake tourism products have the opportunity to merge with other types of tourism product to better development.

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    煤炭资源型城市产业结构锁定的形成、演化及机理研究——以淮北市为例
    杨显明,焦华富
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1256-1264.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1256
    摘要   HTML   PDF (645KB)

    运用偏离-份额分析法跟踪研究了淮北市工业结构演替过程,结果表明:淮北市产业结构锁定效应显著。在中兴期及以前时期,工业结构长期锁定在煤炭采掘、电力、纺织与服装加工、农副食品加工4个主要行业;进入衰退转型期后,以精细化工、建材加工、机械制造、金属冶炼与加工等为代表的接续替代行业兴起,工业结构逐步解锁。通过对淮北市工业结构相似性系数、工业行业集中系数、产出锁定系数、就业锁定系数演化的分析,认为煤炭资源型城市产业结构锁定形成与演化会经历产业导入期、弱锁定期、中度锁定期、强锁定期、解锁期5个阶段,且各阶段的产业结构特征相异。最后,从资源因素、社会因素、技术因素、市场因素、产业政策因素以及观念因素6个方面分析了煤炭资源型城市产业结构锁定形成和演化的机理。


    The industry structure locking-in is a common economic phenomenon, which is also not conducive to the resource-based cities’ sustainable development obviously. Huaibei is a typical coal resource-based city, which being have development foundations. The resource-based industry occupies an important proportion in the national economy, and the industrial structure locking-in is serious in long development terms. This paper makes the tracking study on the succession process of the industrial structure by shift-share analysis method for Huaibei. The research reveals some truth for us. Before the period of prosperity, the industrial structure had been locked in the coal mining industry, the electricity industry, the textile and clothing processing industry, and the agricultural product processing industry. During the recession period, the alternative industry, such as the industry of fine chemicals, the building material processing industry, the machinery manufacturing industry, the metal smelting industry and the metal product industry, developed gradually. In the transition development period, the locked industry deblocked step by step. For the difference, which between the industrial structure similarity coefficient, the Industrial concentration coefficient, the output locking-in coefficient, and the employment locking-in coefficient in different stages, were notable. The formation and evolution Process of the coal resource-based cities' industry locking-in includes five stages, that are the industrial introduction period, the minor locking in period, the medium locking in period, the serious locking in period, and the deblocking period. Each of these factors, including the resource endowment, the social, the technical, the market, the industrial policy and the people’s idea, had influence on the coal resource-based cities' industry locking-in. The alternative industries, which selected and cultivated in the transition development period, should be based on the existing industrial base.

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    基于居民个体的城市虚-实空间关联指标研究——以南京市为例
    翟青,甄峰,陈映雪
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1265-1271.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1265
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    信息技术对城市空间结构的影响一直是地理学关注的话题。随着信息技术的革新及其在社会生活中的普及应用,地理学者开始将研究视角从空间转向网络用户。引入信息科学领域的“地理关联”概念,通过南京居民问卷调查获得973个样本数据,采用结构方程模型分析,尝试从微观个体角度探索基于居民个体的虚-实空间的关联指标。结果发现:居民信息化程度、居民信息化认知、居民信息化习惯、居民流动性是微观层面虚-实空间关联的主要指标;居民流动性是空间关联最重要的衡量指标,其次是居民信息化认知、居民信息化习惯、居民信息化程度;工作地是最能展示网络空间与实体空间紧密关联的场所类型。


    With the continuous penetration of information and communication technology (ICT) in today’s society as well as its progressive development, research into the urban spatial structure influenced by ICT has attracted the attention of geographers. As ICT is integrated into the various aspects of the life and profession of individuals, each person has become an important medium for exploring the relationship between physical and network spaces. Consequently, research focus has shifted from such spaces to Internet users. Geographical space research is influenced by the rapid changes in social phenomena. Thus, new data, methods, and ideas are needed to further explore the relationship between network and physical spaces at the micro level.This article introduces the novel notion of “geography relevance” from the field of information science to the space research on information geography. We determine the level of cyberspace activity of urban residents from the micro-perspective of individuals and explore the index of space relevance between network and physical spaces. The aim is to highlight the role and position of the level of resident information and mobility in space research. With the city of Nanjing as an example, we conduct an urban resident survey using a questionnaire and obtain 973 samples for the database. Three indicators, namely, residence, workplace, and mobility network activities are adopted to measure the relevance between physical and network spaces. An index of resident information is constructed from two aspects: information level of urban residents and mobility. The index mainly includes the willingness of residents to share information, the degree of information sharing, residents’ information cognition, the residents’ habit of information sharing, the devices used for information sharing, information dissemination and acquisition, and mobility. The conclusions are as following . First, the index of space relevance between network and physical spaces at the micro level includes the degree of information sharing, residents’ information cognition, residents’ habit of information sharing, and mobility (p< 0.05). Second, mobility is the most important metric in space relevance, followed by residents’ information cognition, residents’ habit of information sharing, and the degree of information sharing. Third, the workplace is the most typical setting that demonstrates the close link between network and physical spaces. and enriches the perceived function of physical spaces.

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    农村居民点功能演变的微尺度分析——山东省沂水县核桃园村的实证
    张佰林,张凤荣,周建,曲衍波
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1272-1279.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1272
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    从微尺度考察农村居民点演变为解决当前农村发展中出现的问题提供了重要视角。构建农村居民点功能演变的分析框架,采用参与式农村评估(PRA)、GIS与遥感影像相结合方法,以山东省沂水县核桃园村为例进行实证。结果表明,农业生产功能一直是农村居民点生产功能的主导,但不同阶段有不同的内容。农业生计主导阶段(1949~1977年),农户以种植业为主要生计来源,利用庭院及房前屋后种植蔬菜;生计多样化阶段(1978~1999年),农户生计策略演变为种植、养殖和外出务工相结合,农户在宅基地内修建猪圈养猪,在庭院内散养家禽;生计非农转化阶段(2000~2012年),农户以种植和外出务工相结合为生计策略,将庭院硬化用来晾晒粮食、猪圈改造为储物间存放粮食和农机具。农村居民点用地一直以宅基地为主导,缺乏非农生产用地;随着生计成果的逐渐丰富,农户对农村居民点生活功能追求不断强化,表现在对住宅建筑材料的优化、居住空间的扩展及旧住宅的翻新。农村居民点内部土地利用结构及其功能承载状况是与农户生计需求相适应的,农村居民点整理应充分尊重这一客观事实。


    The research of the evolution of rural settlement function plays an important role in solving the problems of rural development. With the rapid development of social economy, functions of rural settlement have tended to variety. However, there are few studies of evaluation of rural settlement functions and its driving factors. Based on the remote sensing and GIS technology, this article takes Hetaoyuan village in Yimeng Mountains as an example, and explore an analysis frame work of the evolution of rural settlement functions to study the evolution of rural s ettlement functions through farmers’ livelihoods and inner structure of rural settlements with participatory rural appraisal (PRA). In this study, three functions (daily life function, agricultural productive function and non-agricultural productive function ) are recognized according to actual conditions in Hetaoyuan village. The data employed in this article was collected by household investigation and authoritative interview in 2013. The results are shown as follows. 1) According to the phase characteristics of farmers’ livelihood strategies, the evolution of rural settlement functions in Hetaoyuan village can be divided into three phases, agricultural production-oriented phase (I, 1949-1977), phase of diverse livelihood activities (II, 1978-1999), non-agricultural productive transformed phase (III, 2000-2012). 2) As time goes, livelihood strategies of rural households transformed from farming to farming, livestock breeding and cross-regional non-agricultural employment, and then turned to farming and cross-regional non-agricultural employment. Agricultural production is consistently dominant production function of rural settlement. Courtyard of rural households is used for vegetable planting in phase I, and livestock breeding in phase II, and grain drying and storage in phase III. Overall, there was a lack of land for non-agricultural production in rural settlement. 3) With the achievements of livelihoods, to pursue daily life function of rural settlement is increasing. It can be reflected from the optimized of residential building materials, the extension of daily life space and the renovation of old houses. 4) Currently, farming and cross-regional non-agricultural employment are the main livelihood strategies of rural households. Courtyard of rural households is used for grain drying, and storage room is used to store grain and agricultural implements. That is, agricultural production and life function of rural settlement are very compatible. It is scientific and reasonable to implement rural residential consolidation by considering the multi-function and structure of rural settlements. 5) The idle houses in Hetaoyuan village are caused by young labor force’s seasonal flow between urban and rural areas, and daily life function of these houses exit. Owing to lacking incremental indicators of homesteads, the idled and abandoned homesteads have potentialities in daily life function of rural settlements, which can be the sources of rural reconstruction.

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    中国城镇房价收入比时空演变的多尺度分析
    刘海猛,石培基,潘竟虎,曹智,谢作轮
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1280-1287.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1280
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    从全国、省级、市级多个尺度,运用空间自相关和变异系数等方法对中国1999~2012年城镇房价收入比的时空演变特征和分异规律进行了系统分析。结果表明:① 中国城镇房价收入比的时空格局演变特征表现出明显的空间尺度效应,国家尺度呈波动上升趋势,省级尺度先上升后分异,大中城市不断升高,且在2007~2011年省、市级尺度下存在较显著的空间自相关,表明近年来中国房地产市场的空间邻近联动性明显增强;② 房价收入弹性分析表明2003~2012年全国大约70%的大中城市居民的收入涨幅赶不上房价涨幅,部分城市泡沫存在的可能性较大,居民住房支付能力不断下降;③ 全国和东部地区省份间的空间差异2003年之前为缩小趋势,之后逐渐增大,中西部省份间差异较小且基本处于缩小态势,市级房价收入比的差异要明显高于省级尺度的差异且呈上升趋势,空间差异的变化存在尺度效应和分区效应。


    The real estate industry of China has developed high-speed since 1998, when the welfare housing distribution was cancelled and the housing was commercialized completely. Especially since 2003, China's per capita GDP went over $1 000, the economy transformed into the take-off stage, and the commercial housing price rose into a fast lane. The housing problem is becoming prominent increasingly. For Chinese residents, owning a house has become an important part of Chinese Dream. Housing price to income ratio (PIR) is a commonly used indicator on the housing problem study. First of all, this article summarized and extended the connotation of PIR from the perspective of social, economic, and humanistic care. PIR is the measurer of housing affordability, the indicator of bubbles in the real estate market, and one of the important measurement indexes for measuring subjective well-being of citizens. In view of the lack of space and scale in the current research, the significance of studying PIR from the perspective of geography was put forward. On this basis, using ESDA and coefficient variation, the space-time evolution characteristics and distribution rules of China's urban PIR from 1999-2012 were analyzed from multi-scale (nation, province and city) systematically. Major conclusions can be drawn as follows: 1) The space-time evolution characteristics of China's urban PIR presented scale effect clearly. National scale showed fluctuations in the rising, provincial scale changed from rise to variance, and city scale rose like a flying geese. Besides this, PIR existed an obvious spatial autocorrelation under the provincial and city scale from 2007-2011, which indicated the co-movement of adjacent real estate market space enhanced significantly in China in recent years. 2) There were about 70% of the citizens living in big and medium-sized cities, whose revenue growth could not catch up with the housing price growth. Some of the cities were more likely to generate bubbles. With the housing affordability declining, the well-being of citizens also decreased gradually. 3) The spatial difference of PIR between provinces in the east and whole of China reduced before 2003, and increased after that. The difference between provinces in the central and western region shrank consecutively. The difference under city scale was larger than that of provincial scale dramatically. This change indicated the existence of scale effect and zoning effect. In brief, the conclusion revealed the regional difference and scale effect of PIR in China, which eliminated the common misunderstanding and could provide regional policy orientation and theoretical basis.

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    1990年以来中国大陆海岸线稳定性研究
    张云,张建丽,李雪铭,景昕蒂,杨俊
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1288-1295.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1288
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    海岸线变迁是一个动态的演变过程,它是自然与人类共同作用的结果。基于1990年、2000年、2007年和2012年4个时期的资源卫星、Landsat系列卫星的遥感影像,采用色差Canny算子计算方法提取岸线数据,计算近22 a来中国大陆海岸线向海推进或向陆后退的空间位置变化量及年均变化速度,研究中国大陆海岸线空间位置与稳定性的演变规律,得出以下结论:① 中国海岸线空间位置变化以向海推进为主;② 中国海岸线多为相对稳定海岸线,其次为强烈岸进岸线,稳定性岸线全国均有分布,而强烈岸进岸线多分布于江苏和辽宁两省;③ 自1990年以来,中国大陆岸线的稳定性指数逐渐降低,22 a下降了1.1,以长江入海口为分界,南方沿海城市岸线稳定性指数高于北方。


    Coastline is not only identified the coastal shoreline land and water boundaries but also contains a wealth of environmental information. Coastline change is a dynamic process of evolution, whose changes directly affected intertidal mudflat resources and coastal environment, also cloud cause a variety of changes in the coastal zone resources and ecological processes. These changes can impact on coastal human survival and development.In this study,referencing the economy, marine legal system and the development process of management of sea areas of the ocean, Remote sensing images from Landsat and HJ satellite, of which 12 images from Landsat TM in 1990 and 2007, Landsat ETM+ in 2000 and HJ-1A HJ in 2012 were chosen. Color Canny operator automatic extraction technology was used to extract four periods of continental coastline, then the average Depth degree’s calculating model was built to get the AveD- AveD+ and SY of continental coastline in China. Then the rules of spatial variation characteristics and the stability were obtained nearly 22 years. 1) The promoting seaward distance is the major the variation of spatial distances of continental coastline in China; 2) The stable and strongly forward coastline are the major components of continental coastline in China, and thestable coastline is all over coastal provinces ,then the strongly recessing distributed mainly in the Jiangsu and Liaoning provinces. 3) Over the past 22 years, the stability of continental coastline were declining and its index fell by 1.1. The stability indexes of continental coastline the dividing line is in the Changjiang River estuary, southern coastline are generally higher than the northern coastal cities. It's found that the reason of the changes of shoreline position is the interaction of natural factors and human factors. Their affection are not the same.Natural factors are the main factors affecting the landward retreat of the coastline, such as seawater erosion, sea level rise and land subsidence. Storm surges and other marine disasters also caused shoreline landward retreat. Human use of the sea is a major factor in advancing to the sea coast.Reclamation farming, port construction, land filling, accelerated shoreline seaward. In addition to the extreme marine disasters, the impact of natural factors is mostly continuous and slow, but impact of human activities is quick and direct.

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    植物地理学教材更新刍议
    付旭东,张桂宾
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1294-1298.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1294
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    近20 a来,植物地理学研究已从描述走向解释和分析,并在不同水平不同时空尺度上全面地探究植物的分布格局、形成过程和机制。然而,国内现行的植物地理学教材仍然沿袭20世纪60~70年代的结构体系,内容陈旧、时效性差,明显滞后于学科的发展。因此,在分析植物地理学教材现状的基础上提出建议:① 在现行教科书的结构和内容上增加全球变化对植物分布格局的影响和植物地理学的实践应用2个版块;② 删减教科书中常见的植物学、生态学知识以及植物区系和植被专著的内容;③ 在绪论中补充近20 a来该学科的主要进展和发展趋势,主要理论和研究方法,国内外刊登该学科研究的重要学术期刊简介,在每章末尾增加一个建议阅读书目和文献;④ 用彩色照片更新教科书中的黑白图片;⑤ 制作质量精良的教学课件和光盘;⑥ 编写与教科书相互呼应的实习教材,补充和更新植物地理学的研究方法,如植物谱系地理学研究方法、植物群落取样设计与野外监测技术、数据处理与分析、植被遥感与植被制图等。


    In recent twenty years, the study of plant geography has gained essential achievement in its theory and methodology, tended to synthetically interpret and analyze plant’s distribution pattern mode, formative process and mechanism from different levels at different temporal and spatial scales. However, current plant geography textbooks published in China still followed the outdated structure framework and content proposed during the period of 1960 to 1970. This status lagged obviously behind new development of the discipline. Therefore, some detailed suggestions are proposed to adjust, delete, update and supplement structure and content of current plant geography textbook as following. 1) The effect of global change on plant distribution pattern and practical applications in plant geography should be added into current textbook’s structure framework and content. 2) Some common knowledge and content in botanical and ecological textbook or in flora and vegetation monographs of the world and China are should be deleted or reduced. 3) Main advancement and future trend on plant geography, major theory and methodology, an introduction to international important academic journals should be supplemented into introduction part, some classical monographs and literatures should be attached to the end of each chapter. 4) All old black and white figures and photos should be replaced and updated with current colorful pictures. 5) High-quality multimedia teaching courseware, videos and CD should be made elaborately as a part of textbook. 6) New methodology are should be supplemented and updated into experimental materials and fieldwork guides of plant geography, such as plant phylogeography, plant community sampling and field monitoring techniques, data processing and analysis, remote sensing of vegetation, and vegetation mapping.

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    1月北极涛动异常程度特征及其对北半球同期温度的影响
    jlsbz2008@sina.com,封国林,廉毅
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1299-1305.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1299
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    将1月北极涛动(AO)大气遥相关型的强度分为:正常、异常和极端异常3类典型年进行讨论,发现其同期大气环流及其对北半球温度影响存在显著的异同性:当AO呈异常和极端异常时,均表现为东亚大槽、乌拉尔山、贝加尔湖阻塞高压、阿留申低压的持续、稳定异常,但对应极区涡旋的强度、面积及其向南、向北的扩展等有所差异,与NPO、NAO正、负位相对应,致使冷空气在极地和中、高纬度活动范围不同。极端异常年的影响强度和范围较异常年偏大、偏南,高低空配置使冷空气向北半球中低纬度地区延伸,异常低温可扩展至北太平洋暖池区。


    Based on the analysis of typical Arctic Oscillation (AO) years, this article classifies the January AO strength into normal, abnormal and extreme anomaly categories and investigates the characteristics of the atmospheric circulations associated with these three different AO strength as well as their effects on the North Hemisphere January surface temperature. The results show that the atmospheric circulations associated with these three AO strength and their effects on North hemisphere January surface temperature have significant similarities and differences. When AO is in abnormal or extreme anomaly phases, the similar and typical AO positive and negative phase distribution are observed from the lower troposphere to the tropopause. The atmospheric circulations in 500hPa are shown as the continual and stable east Asia trough, Ural Mountains and Lake Baikal blocking high, and Aleutian low. However, the corresponding intensity, area, southward and northward extension of polar vortex associated with these two AO patterns are different, which caused the different range of cold air activities in the middle and high latitude as well as the polar region. During the extreme anomaly years, the strength and the range of influence of AO are larger and more southward than that in the abnormal AO years, the corresponding configuration of high and low level atmospheric circulations cause the cold air extend to the middle and lower latitude of North Hemisphere, and the abnormally low temperature can extend to the North Pacific warm pool.

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    1980~2013年滇西北地区降雨侵蚀力变化特征
    赵平伟,郭萍
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1306-1311.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1306
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    利用多种统计方法,分析了1980~2013年间滇西北地区中雨、大雨、暴雨和侵蚀性降雨及其对应的日数、产生的降雨侵蚀力时空变化特征、突变时间和未来趋势。结果表明:各量级降雨侵蚀力空间分布差异较大,且表现为随降雨量级的减小而变小;大雨侵蚀力占年降雨侵蚀力的45%,起主导作用;降雨侵蚀力表现出降雨量级越大,集中程度越高的年内分布特征;不同量级降雨产生的降雨侵蚀力、降雨日数和降雨量在时间变化趋势上有增有减,未来表现为持续性;各量级降雨侵蚀力相对趋势在少部地区表现一致,大部地区存在明显差异;各量级降雨侵蚀力在1983年发生显著性突变,2002~2006年后,增长趋势不再明显。


    Using the daily rainfall data collected in 1980-2013 from 22 meteorological sites located across Northwest Yunnan, rainfall erosion force was calculated. According to Daily rainfall, by using those methods like Mann-Kendall trend test, inverse distance weighted method, sequential Mann-Kendall test, inverse distance weighted method and R/S test, etc. We analyzed the rainfall erosivity, moderate rain, heavy rainfall, erosive rainfall, the corresponding number of days of rainfall erosivity, temporal and spatial variation, mutation time and future trends. The result showed that: in terms of the erosivity for the rainfall at each level in Northwest Yunnan, the spatial distribution of the erosivity of heavy rain was basically consistent with the spatial distribution of the erosivity of the annual rainfall, but it was much different for the spatial distribution of the annual precipitation days, the rainfall erosivity of rainstorm and the rainfall erosivity of moderate rain. For the rainfall at each level, the distributional differences of the erosivity were decreased with the smaller rainfall precipitations; 67% of the annual rainfall erosivity was generated from the rainfall erosivity of heavy rain or at a higher level that accounted for 6% of the annual precipitation days; 28% of erosive precipitation days was generated from the rainfall erosivity of heavy rain that accounted for 45% of the annual rainfall erosivity. The precipitation days for the rainfall at each level were arranged as moderate rain>heavy rain>rainstorm while the rainfall erosivity was arranged as heavy rain>moderate rain>rainstorm. The unimodal type distribution was presented with the center in July. More than 85% of the erosivity for the rainfall at each level was taken place in the rainy season (from May to October). At the same time, the higher level the rainfall was, the greater the concentration was; over the past 34 years, the corresponding rainfall erosivity, precipitation days and rainfall precipitations were increased or decreased in the Northwest Yunnan. The erosive rainfall and the annual rainfall erosivity were increased of which the growing scopes were 6.7 mm/10 a and 26.6 MJ·mm/(hm2·h·a)/10 a, respectively. The variation trends of precipitation days, precipitation and rainfall erosivity were sustainable in the future. In the small parts of the Northwest Yunnan, the rainfall erosivity for the rainfall at each level and erosive rainfall were relatively reduced. However, the variation tendency was largely distinguished for most of the parts; the erosivity for the rainfall at each level and the annual rainfall erosivity were drastically changed in 1983 of which its growth point exceeded 0.05 of the borderline at the significance level. After the period from 2002 to 2006, the growth trend was no longer apparent.

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    基于OWA-GIS的巢湖流域洪涝灾害风险评价
    程先富,郝丹丹
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1312-1317.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1312
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    随着全球气候变化和城市化进程加快,洪涝灾害的灾情日益严重。在流域风险识别的基础上,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力4个方面选取评价指标,建立评价指标体系。运用层次分析法确定指标的准则权重,基于有序加权平均法(OWA)计算指标的次序权重;构建OWA-GIS洪涝灾害风险评价模型,对巢湖流域洪涝灾害风险进行评价。研究表明:巢湖流域的东南部洪涝灾害风险较大,特别是庐江、无为、居巢区、和县等地。低风险区主要分布在巢湖流域的西南部、西北部和北部,舒城、肥西、肥东县风险低。随着决策系数的增大,决策者的态度由乐观到悲观,得到的风险值也越来越大。基于OWA-GIS的洪涝灾害风险评价是一种情景分析,评价不同决策态度下的风险状况,可拟定更多的复合情景,预测未来某种自然及经济条件下和不同决策态度下的风险,为区域制定规划和灾害风险管理提供科学依据。


    As the global climate change and accelerating the process of urbanization, flood disaster becomes increasingly serious. Based on risk identification, evaluation index is selected from hazard factors, disaster environment, hazard bearing body and disaster prevention and mitigation. Evaluation index system is established. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the criteria weights, Based on ordered weighted average (OWA) to calculate the order weights. Build OWA-GIS flood risk assessment model to evaluate flood risk in Chaohu Basin. The results show that the high risk is in southeast of Chaohu Basin, especially Lujiang, Wuwei, Juchao district and He county. Low risk areas are mainly distributed in the southwest, northwest and north of Chaohu basin, especially in Shucheng, Feixi and Feidong county. With the increase of the decision coefficient, the decision maker's attitude from optimism to pessimism, risk is also growing. The flood risk assessment based on OWA-GIS is a scenario analysis, evaluating risk status under different decision attitudes. More complex scenarios can be developed to predict the risk under certain natural and economic conditions and different decision attitudes in the future. The study provided scientific basis for planning and disaster risk management.

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    巢湖沉积物粒度特征及其沉积学意义
    徐利强,徐芳,周涛发
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1318-1324.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1318
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    对采自西巢湖湖心的一根长为143 cm的沉积柱进行了粒度分析,重建了粒度组成的演变过程。湖心沉积物主要为粉砂和黏土,粒度参数(平均粒径、标准偏差、偏度、尖度、分维值)分析表明沉积物分选程度较好,均为正偏态,峰态为很窄到非常窄,且具有一定的分形特征。C-M图解和概率累积曲线揭示了较弱的水动力环境,颗粒的搬运方式主要为跃移和悬移,比例分别约为70%和25%~30%。结合因子分析,识别出第一主因子(PC1)对细粒物质含量存在显著影响,其值反映了碎屑物质在湖泊中的搬运距离,PC1因子与平均粒径Mz可作为巢湖湖泊水位的替代性指标。


    Lacustrine sediments are ideal natural archives for studying environmental changes in the past. A sediment core, namely CHX, was collected from the western Chaohu Lake, east of China and its grain-size features at the intervals of 2 cm were investigated in the present study. The changes of grain-size compositions throughout the profile CHX were reconstructed. Grain size parameters, including mean grain-size (Mz), standard deviation (Sd), skewness (Sk) and kurtosis (Ku) were calculated. It is found that those sediments are mainly composed of fine grained silt and clay. Mz, Sd, Sk and Ku and fractal dimension of the sediments suggest that those deposits were well to very well sorted, positive to very positive-skewed, very to extremely leptokurtic and also show evident fractal features. C-M pattern and probability cumulative curve of the sediments from core CHX unveiled an low-energy environment, and revealed that grains move in the major forms of saltation and suspension, which accounts for about 70% and 25%~30%, respectively. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify controlling factors for grain size features of sediments from the Chaohu Lake. From principal component analysis, it is identified that the first principal component (PC1) controls fine-grained clay content in the bulk sediments and further reflects the offshore distance of detritus in the lake. PC1 and mean grain-size Mz are thus robust markers for lake water level and local precipitation. These sediments can be further used to reconstruct regional precipitation history.

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    黄土高原甘肃区降水变化与气候指数关系
    赵一飞,邹欣庆,张勃,张多勇,许鑫王豪
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1325-1332.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1325
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    基于黄土高原甘肃区34个气象站1961~2010年的逐日降水资料,结合线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall法和反距离加权插值等方法,对黄土高原甘肃区降水量时空变化进行分析,利用Morlet小波、交叉小波变换和小波相干谱分析其周期特征及其与太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)、厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)指数相关关系。结果表明:研究区年降水量呈下降趋势,变化倾向率为-15.4 mm/10a,特别是20世纪90年代以来降水量下降趋势明显;就季节变化而言,降水量除冬季呈轻微增加外,其他各季均呈减少趋势,其中以秋季减少最为明显,其次为春、夏季。从空间分布来看,年降水量总体呈减少趋势,其东南地区降水量减少幅度高于西北部。研究区降水量存在2~3 a、4.3~5 a的年际振荡周期特征,呈现了同大尺度气候因子相似的变化特征;降水量与两大气候因子存在着多时间尺度的显著相关性,与PDO和ENSO存在5~5.6 a左右共振周期,位相谱月降水量变化位相比PDO和ENSO提前;低能量区降水量与PDO有3~3.5 a年的显著共振周期且接近同位相变化,与ENSO存在0~3 a和3~6 a呈负位相的共振周期。


    Based on the daily precipitation data of 30 stations in Loess Plateau of Gansu Province from 1961 to 2010, the spatial and temporal changes of precipitation were analyzed by the methods of liner trend, Mann - Kendall method and inverse distance weighted interpolation methods, Mann-Kendall method and IDW. analyzed the cycle characteristics and the relationship between the precipitation and PDO and ENSO by the continuous wavelet transform, cross wavelet and wavelet coherence techniques.Then, based on the above analysis, the future trends of precipitation were forecast by the method of rescaled range analysis. The results indicated that the average annual rainfall decreased by -1.54 mm per year, especially since the 1990s precipitation decrease obviously. In terms of season, In addition to winter precipitation showed a slight increase, the other quarter showed a decreasing trend, which decreased the most in autumn, followed by spring, summer. Spatial distribution, annual precipitation decreased in most areas in the Loess Plateau of Gansu Province, decrease in precipitation in the southeast region above the northwest. Precipitation had 2-3 year, 4.3-5 year oscillation circles, which was similar to the pattern of the two large-climate indices. There were the common patterns of 5-5.6 year oscillation circles between precipitation and PDO, ENSO, phase spectrum month precipitation change compared to the PDO and ENSO in advance. Precipitation had 3-3.5 year significant resonance circles with PDO, and close to the same phase shift, as well as has 0-3 year and 3-6 year showed a negative phase of the resonance cycles with ENSO. The Hurst indices of the precipitation are all bigger than 0.5 for all the stations, the fractal dimensions, meanwhile, are all less than 1.5, which indicate that precipitation would keep the same trend with the past in a period of time in the future.

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    近60年来西南地区旱涝变化及极端和持续性特征认识
    杨金虎,张强,王劲松,姚玉璧,尚军林
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1333-1340.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1333
    摘要   HTML   PDF (748KB)

    利用1953~2012年中国西南地区44个气象台站的逐日降水、温度资料,通过降水和潜在蒸发均一化旱涝指数,从旱涝的年代际、年际、季节内变化以及极端和持续性特征等方面进行了分析,结果表明:从旱涝的空间趋势变化来看,西南近60 a来秋季和年变化呈显著的一致变旱趋势,而春、夏、冬3季旱涝变化趋势表现出一定的区域性特征;从旱涝的时间演变来看,在温度与降水双重因子驱动下春、夏、秋、冬均表现为干旱化趋势,相比较秋季的干旱化程度最强,而春季的最弱,夏、冬两季相当,而全年的干旱程度比四季的程度更强;从极端旱涝的多时间尺度来看,在年代际和年际尺度上,极端洪涝发生频次逐渐减少,而极端干旱发生频次逐渐增多,从季节尺度看,春、冬两季极端干旱发生频次较多,而夏季最少,极端洪涝发生频次夏季最多,春季次之,秋季最少。从旱涝的持续性特征来看,持续性干旱事件的持续时间有增长趋势,发生频率有增多趋势,发生强度有增强趋势,并且主要发生在冬春两季,而持续性洪涝事件的持续时间、发生强度没明显变化趋势,发生频率有减少趋势,发生的季节也没明显差异。


    Using 44 stations temperature and precipitation data of day by day in Southwest China in 1953-2012, latency evaporation is calculated by Thornthwaite method, from inter-decadal, inter-annual, inter-seasonal variability, extreme and persistent characteristic of drought and flood analyzed over southwest China in past 60 years by homogenized drought-flood index of precipitation and latency evaporation. The results showed that: From the point of view of space trends to see, it displayed consistent drought trend in autumn and whole year over southwest China in past 60 years, but it displayed regional drought-flood trend feature in spring, summer and winter. Precipitation is main driven factor of drought-flood change in spring and summer, temperature is main driven factor of drought-flood change in winter and whole year, but driven function of precipitation and temperature are all notable in autumn. Therefore it is not objective to analyze drought-flood change only by precipitation, driven function of temperature must be considered. From the point of view of time evolution to see, it displayed drought trend by driven of temperature and precipitation double factor in spring, summer, autumn and winter over southwest China in past 60 years. By comparison, drought degree is strongest in autumn, but it is weakest in spring, and it is quite in spring and winter. However annual drought degree is stronger than that of seasons. From multiple time scales of view of extreme drought-flood to see, on interannual and decadal scales, extreme floods occur frequency gradually decreased, and extreme drought occur frequency gradually increased in past 60 years over southwest China. From inter-seasonal scales of view of extreme drought-flood to see, there is a greater probability of extreme drought in spring and winter, but it is smaller in summer, and there is a greater probability of extreme flood in summer, followed by spring ,but it is smaller in autumn. From month scales of view of extreme drought-flood to see, there is a greater probability of extreme drought on August, followed by February, but it is smaller in June, and there is a greater probability of extreme flood on August, followed by February, but it is smaller in January. Therefore it is most unusual month of drought-flood on August and February. From the point of view of persistent characteristic to see, from trend of persistent drought and flood event to see, duration of persistent drought event gradually lengthen, frequency gradually increased, intensity gradually strengthen, and it occurs mainly in winter and spring, but duration and strength of persistent flood event have not clear trend, frequency gradually decreased, and season of appearance have not significantly difference. In addition by comparing frequency of persistent drought and flood event to south China and southwest China in the past 60 years, nine times is consistent in the time of occurrence of persistent drought, especially it is entirely consistent autumn winter and spring drought in 1998, nine times is not consistent. Seven times is consistent in the time of occurrence of persistent flood, eleven times is not consistent, therefore affect system of persistent drought and flood is not entirely consistent over southwest and south China.

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    吉林省极端严寒事件时空分布特征及评估方法研究
    袭祝香,纪玲玲,高晓荻,张硕
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (10): 1341-1346.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1341
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    利用1951~2013年最低气温资料和灰色关联度、气候倾向率、Gumbel极值分布等方法分析了吉林省严寒的时空分布特征和气候变化规律,给出了严寒过程的等级评估指标和异常气候重现期指标,对2011~2013年的严寒过程进行了评估。结果表明:吉林省严寒主要在冬季出现,在1月中旬前后达到峰值;中南部地区为严寒多发区,其它地区出现较少;吉林省年平均严寒发生次数呈下降的趋势,其中中西部地区呈上升的趋势,东南部地区呈下降的趋势;吉林省严寒次数的阶段性变化明显,1951~1980年呈偏多的阶段,1981~2013年处于偏少阶段;吉林省严寒过程主要出现在1月;利用序位以及等级评估、异常气候重现期评估指标对严寒过程进行评估,可满足快速、及时评估的气象服务的需求。


    The bitter cold, an extreme weather event, is the main climate disaster in the winter in Jinlin Province and has deeply influenced on the production and people’s living. Analysis on spatial-temporal distribution and climate change pattern of the bitter cold , research on evaluation index of the bitter cold and effective pre-assessment before the event are of great significance on improving the emergency response and service capability.In this study, through using some index, such as grey correlation, climatic trend rate and Gumbel extreme value distribution, on the daily lowest temperature of 50 meteorological stations in Jilin Province from 1951 to 2013, the spatial-temporal distribution and climate change pattern of the bitter cold in Jinlin Province were analyzed. Then index on rating bitter cold process and on the return period of abnormal weather were proposed. Finally, the evaluation was conducted on the bitter cold process from 2011 to 2013.The results showed that in Jinlin Province, the bitter cold event mainly occurred in winter and reached a peak in about mid-January. This bitter cold event mostly happened in the central and southern regions and rarely occurred in other regions. The annual occurrence number of the bitter cold in the whole Jinlin Province showed the tendency of decline. However, the number of occurrences in central and western regions was increasing and the number in southeastern areas was decreasing. The occurrence number of the bitter cold in Jinlin Province had significantly periodic changes: the number was on the ‘large’ phase from 1951 to 1980 but it was on the ‘small’ phase from 1981 to 2012. The bitter cold process in Jinlin Province mainly occurred in January. Therefore, the defense against bitter cold should mainly been implemented in January and in the central and southern areas. Although it is in warming period now and the occurrence number of bitter cold is on the ‘small’ phase, bitter cold still abnormally occurred many times in some years. Therefore, attention should always be paid to the defense against the bitter cold. In this study, the methods that using index of orders, rating and the return period of abnormal weather to evaluate the process of the bitter cold are practical and feasible, which can meet the demands of meteorological services for timely and fast assessment.

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