Geography is a subject of "exploring the laws of nature, declaring the human essence", with characteristics of comprehensiveness and interactiveness. Since the 1980s, Geography plays an important role in global environmental change research programs. Theories, methods and techniques of Geography have become the basis for solving the problems of the sustainable development of human society is facing. Originated in the global environment change research, and combined with the social science research, The " Future Earth" research plan represents the direction of the development of Geography in the new period. In contemporary, Geography research methods have shift from survey, observation, and records, drawings and other traditional research methods to the modern scientific methods such as spatial statistics, earth observation, GIS, indoor and outdoor simulation and modeling, decision-making system, etc., and are gradually tend to comprehensive and quantitative. As the problems that Geography is facing are more complex and more comprehensive, the Geography research issues become more comprehensive and diverse, and attract more extensive subjects to participate in. In more and more field, the angle of Geography are considered. The discipline boundary that concepts and tools belonging to is blurring. In the new era, the geography, is heading for geographical science. China is an ideal geography test sites of studying the problem of the sustainable development of human society. The future development of Chinese Geography needs to deepen the comprehensive and integrated understanding of the complex man-land system, and strengthen the research of global problems. To achieve the goal of geographical science and social service value, the internationalization level of Chinese geographical science needs to be promoted, and the ability of using advanced technology to parse geographical phenomenon needs to be improved.
Industrial agglomeration is the most prominent geographical feature of economic activity. But the discussion on the marine industrial agglomeration is still in its infancy. This article focuses on the interprovincial scale, which is a relative macro study in comparison with the most research in agglomeration. From the perspective of marine economic geography and based on the related viewpoints of system theory, the article analyzes the spatial structure gradation of regional marine industrial agglomeration of China, and observes the relationship of all the components at the same time. It turns out that the interprovincial scale research should be considered as playing the role of “nexus”. Then it has measured the agglomeration degree of marine industries in 11 coastal provinces(Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan excluding ) by employing location quotient, using the original data mainly from Marine Statistical Yearbook of China, and also has described the agglomeration evolution characteristics during 1996-2012. It can be discovered that the agglomeration has experienced three stages in the past sixteen years: the differentiation of agglomeration degree appeared in the first stage of 1996-2000, and increased gradually during the second stage of 2001-2005, and in the recent seven years: 2006-2012, especially during 2009-2012, was very remarkable. As a result, one half of the coastal areas in China, Tianjin, Shanghai, Fujian, Hainan, Shandong and Guangdong, have been growing up into agglomeration areas. Moreover, compared with other agglomeration areas, the former four areas have been showing the higher location quotient value and the tendency of agglomeration enhancing. Studies have indicated that the formation and development of agglomeration will further promote the development of the industries and the economics, which has been demonstrated by the researchers related at home and abroad. However, in the meanwhile, the unfavorable factors will accumulate simultaneously, especially those which will cause vicious consequences to the environment. Consequently, according to the literatures, a model has been made to study quantitively the coupling coordination degree of two systems in Tianjin, Shanghai, Fujian and Hainan: the marine industrial system and the marine resources and region environment system (a compound system). The study has indicated that in 2001-2012, the coupling coordination degree of the compound system in the four agglomeration areas has been rising constantly and showing an upward tendency. According to the grade of coupling coordination degree, the compound systems of the four areas are all in the condition of incoordination before 2006 and in the condition of coordination after 2006. At present, all of the compound systems of the four agglomeration areas are being in the stage of medium coordination.
The vulnerability of human-environmental system is the key for geographical research. Social-ecological system （SES）and its resilience research provide a new idea and an integrated theoretical framework for Human-environmental analysis. In the latest decade, the objects of vulnerability study gradually transform from the ecological system to the Socio-ecological Systems, that is, the human-environmental coupled systems. As Social-ecological systems have multiple-scale panarchy and multiple differing stakeholders are involved, the traditional methodology for assessing vulnerability of Socio-ecological Systems could not explain the uncertainty about the very system. In this article, Zhonglianhuan Town in Yuzhong County of Gansu Province was taken as the study area, a field survey about contextual interview with multiple differing stakeholders which include the farmers, local managers and academic researchers were conducted, the acceptability of different people toward different scenarios could be measured as an indicator of their fragility. Then, the vulnerability of rural Social-ecological system was analyzed. The two key drivers of the rural SES were climatic drought and government policy by using scenario analysis, whose interactions decided the future of local SES. Then, with the cross-impact analysis, three scenarios ( S1, S2 and S3) were filtered which is most likely to happen in the future. Based on the scenario analysis, the acceptability of stakeholders toward the three different scenarios was measured combining with social-ecological matrix, and then the vulnerability in the three diffident scenarios was judged. The result indicates that, In scenario 1, Drought was alleviated and there were policy support, the vulnerability of farmers and local managers is low; in scenario 2 (Drought was alleviated but there was no policy support)and 3(there was policy support but Drought occurred most frequently), the acceptability of farmers and local managers was negative-going and the vulnerability degree was high. Worsening drought determined the future of the study area, however, the policy support make up the negative impact to some extent. some policy suggestions were proposed for the development through analyzing the vulnerability of ,the local social-ecological systems. At last, the research on the vulnerability of human-environmental system combining social factors with ecological factors was reviewed.
This article focuses on the newly emerging online consumption practices, which is suggested to be a kind of social space, and is established on the underlying social relations. Based on the theory of the production of spaces, especially used the concepts of triad spaces, namely the spatial practice, the representation of space, and the representational spaces, taking cases of 10 designer women costumes stores on Taobao, which is the largest C2C e-commerce platform in China, with the method of text analysis and in-depth interviews, this article explored traits and the triad processes of production of online stores. Conclusions are as below: 1) It is necessary to judge whether online spaces share the similar social qualities with physical spaces, before applying existing spatial theories and approaches on the exploring of online spaces. Based on briefre views of philosophy concepts of online spaces and the social spaces theories, online spaces, for instance, online stores, are deemed as social spaces decided by certain social relations. 2) The conceptual triad in production of spaces is proved to be a worthy frame of exploring the online consumption spaces, which are emerging as highly overlapping, complex and social relevant spaces.The practice of online consumption spaces supports, as well as is decided by the consumption relationship. Consumption relations, which are contained in online consuming spaces,should be deemed as multi-subject and multi-scale networks. Online store sfurther help derivingmany other social relations beyond consumption,which makes online stores very places for sharing experiences and daily lives among customers and store keepers, and arousing people’sfeelings of traditional everyday lives, and sense of belonging to communities. Representations of online consuming spaces,which are mainly achieved by operating with codes, signs and symbols, are co-productions of techniques, structural powers of society, creative ideas and resistances of everyday lives. The mutual process of coding and decoding reveals the dominated up-down construction and the bottom-up powers of deciphering, such ason the stores’ style forming and branding. The perform ativity of models and scenes presenting on online stores often acts as an effective strategy to arouse consumers’ identity. The representational spaces of online consuming spaces are expressions of contradictions and imbalances of the society, the obedience and resistanceto mainstream social culture, which accumulates as powers to promote the development and redevelopment of online consuming spaces. 3) The underlying structures of the production of online consuming spaces are composed of multiple dialectical relations and complex interactionsin context of certain society. The mainly triad processes of production of online consuming spaces can be concluded as the consumption relationship, the symbolic manipulation, and the cultural expression, respectively corresponding to the spatial practice, representations of space, and representational spaces, which expresses and interacts with the social structure, real worlds of everyday lives and symbol systems.
Marine disaster is a big obstacle to the social and economic development in coastal areas. China is one of the countries seriously affected by marine disasters. In the marine disaster control, loss evaluation is the core content of disaster grade division and risk prevention of marine disasters, and is also the key to study the relationship between marine disasters and economic.Theoretically, the marine disaster will disrupt the normal order of production, reduce economic efficiency, and affect the marine economy. But from a dynamic point of view, investment and consumption caused by marine disasters may also make the marine disasters have positive effects on the development of marine economy.Inaddition, the development of marine economy will increase the marine disaster losses. Therefore, the question that whether there is a correlation between the marine disaster losses and marine economic growth, is it positive or negative, is worth in-depth study. With the ocean development and exploitation in depth and breadth, marine disasters have become an important factor affecting the sustainable and healthy development of our marine economy. Evaluates the loss of marine disasters in the coastal areas of China from 1989 to 2011 by constructing the marine disaster loss index, and then analyzes the dynamic relationship between economic growth in coastal areas and marine disaster losses with Granger causality test and VAR model. The empirical analysis shows thatcoastal economic growth rate and the marine disaster losses show synergistic fluctuation trend; marine disaster brings direct economic losses to the development of the coastal area, but is not the main factor; yet the economic growth in coastal areas Granger causes the marine disaster losses, and has a durability effect. There are two main reasons: first, economic growth increased coastal economic density, the disaster bearing bodies are more susceptible to marine disasters; second, over exploitation and utilization of marine resources will damage the ecological environment of the sea, the frequent occurrence of red tide disaster is a good example.The "Eighteen report" clearly pointed out the macro goal that "improve the marine resources development ability, develop the marine economy, protect the marine ecological environment, and resolutely safeguard the national marine rights and interests", in view of this, improving the marine disaster emergency management ability and at the same time scientific development the marine economy is the correct selections of coastal areas for reducing the marine disaster loss.
As a vital performance of international network division’s development in depth, the dialectical influence of transnational R&D investment is based on the innovative independent development of the host country. According to the provincial panel simultaneous data in 2009-2012, the article studies the influence of transnational R&D investment to China. The results show that based on the current level of self-development of innovation, the foreign R&D has an obvious promoting effect on China’s independent innovation, and China will achieve the goal of obtaining a higher place in international division during the adjustment period of international R&D division of labor. However, differing from the overall impact of foreign R&D investment, the relations between China's eastern, central and western provinces and foreign R&D investment are different. Among them, based on the current innovative independent development, only provinces in the eastern China have reached the regional conditions that multinational companies can establish its global R&D network. The majority of the midwest provinces and regions are restricted by the weak basis of innovative independent development, cannot achieve the goal of obtaining a higher place in international division and accelerating the development of innovative independent through the positive interaction with multinational R&D investment. On the policy implications, it indicates that the actual influence of foreign R&D will change with different indigenous innovation foundation in host place. To realize the dialectical understanding of foreign R&D, the foundation of innovation and independent development of the host country must be taken into account.
This article discusses the comprehensive quality of ancient villages in different urbanization areas, and the conclusions are significant on balance urbanization and ancient villages’ protections. The study samples 82 ancient villages in Huangshan City, and constructs indicators for comprehensive quality of ancient villages. Three urbanization areas, urban, suburban, and rural, are distinguished, and their spatial differentiation of comprehensive quality characteristics are studied along urban and rural. The results indicate comprehensive quality of ancient villages in suburban is highest (3.69), and it is high in urban (3.66) but very low in rural (3.19). The disparity between urban and rural areas is significant, and the comprehensive quality of ancient villages in urban and suburban is obvious higher than which in urban. The quality of economic development is obvious higher in urban than other areas, and the quality of residential facilities is significant higher in urban and suburban. However, the quality of history culture is relative higher in suburban, and we do not find any significant pattern according to the quality of ecological capacity. We also present the improvement suggestions in different urbanization area based on the spatial differentiation of comprehensive quality for ancient villages.
以城镇化过程持续加速而耕地流失及粮食供需形势日趋严峻的太湖流域为研究区,结合遥感、土壤、气象及农业统计数据,借助AEZ模型和GIS开展1985~2010年土地利用变化对耕地生产力的影响分析及评价。结果表明：① 流域耕地生产力水平较高,高产耕地分布广泛;② 近30 a来就地城镇化和工业化发展导致流域建设用地快速扩张,耕地数量锐减;③ 由于减少的多为城市周边及交通沿线水土条件优越的优质耕地,新增的则多是来源于土地复垦或整理的低产耕地,“高产耕地锐减-低产耕地缓增”导致流域耕地生产力水平下降,且在不同发展阶段下降格局不同;④ 高产田锐减导致流域粮食大幅减产,不同县域由于经济发展水平和耕地利用条件不同,粮食减幅呈现显著空间差异。
With gradual population increase and rapid economic development,the change of land use patterns continued to accelerate and the cropland resources were fast dwindling in Taihu Lake Basin.As a result,these changes significantly impact arableland productivity and regional food security. This article attempts to carry out factor analyses and assessments of the effect of land use change on cultivated land productivity in Taihu Lake Basin.It has been done by grid processin and spatially superposed operating through combining climate data derived from spatial interpolation,digitized soil data,remote sensing data derived from multi-source inversion,and agricultural statistics data.In addition,this study employed AEZ model simulation and GIS technology.The main results can be obtained as follows: 1) The grading results of cultivated land productivity show that the level of productivity of arable land is high and high-quality arable land is widely distributed; 2) The local industrialization and urbanization lead to the rapid expansion of construction land and the significant decline of cultivated land in 1985-2010; 3) The change of cultivated land is characteristized by the feature that “a sharp drop in high-yield cultivated land and a slow increasing in low-yield cultivated land”.Since those reduced cultivated land that along cities and traffic always have high quality after long-term cultivation,whereas those new cultivated land that generated from land reclamation always have low soil quality.Thus it lead to the decline in the level of overall productivity of cultivated land and the decline pattern is different in the two different stages of 1985-2000 and 2000-2010; 4) The food production reducing of Taihu Lake Basin can be mainly contributed by the decrease of cultivated land with high quality. Besides, the reduction of food production is different varies in different counties owing to different economic development levels and various condition of cultivated land use.
选取陇东地区近50 a平均逐月降水和气温数据,采用Mann-Kendall方法、反距离加权插值（IDW）、功率谱分析、标准化降水蒸散发指数（SPEI）等方法分析了陇东地区近50 a来干旱变化的时空特征。研究显示：近50 a来陇东地区干旱化趋势非常明显,特别是20世纪90年代以来干旱趋势显著。持续干旱事件次数增多,持续干旱累积时间增长,以春夏连旱、伏秋连旱的次数增多为显著特征。发生干旱的周期在不同的时间尺度上表现不一致,随着时间尺度的增长,干旱出现的周期也在变长。干旱发生频率不断加快,尤其是在20世纪90年代以来,极端干旱事件的频率显著上升。近50 a来干旱频率较高的区域在环县西北部和六盘山以西静宁等地,干旱高频区逐步向中南部和东部转移。通过与其他方法对比分析和历史资料比对,证明SPEI在陇东地区有较好的适用性。
The eastern region of Gansu Province, typical Loess Plateau was located in the eastern part of Northwest China. The ecological environment in eastern region of Gansu was fragile. Eastern region of Gansu heavily depended on agriculture and regularly suffered from droughts. The characteristics of drought in eastern region of Gansu were studied based on monthly precipitation and temperature data of 15 meteorological stations by means of different scales of Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,combined with GIS spatial analysis techniques and mathematical statistical methods. The evolution of the spatial and temporal change of drought were quantitatively analyzed by SPEI has been illuminated. The SPEI that was based on a monthly climate water balance (precipitate on minus potential evapotranspiration) was calculated at different time scales. The balances were then converted to standardized units to allow spatial and temporal comparisons. For this purpose the data was fit to a three-parameter log-logistic distribution. Calculation of the index follows a similar approach to that for the standardized precipitation index (SPI) which was a widely accepted drought index due to its multi-scalar characteristic and simplicity of calculation. However, the SPI was based on precipitation only, newly developed SPEI combines the sensitivity of the PDSI to the changes in ET with the simplicity of calculation,but also has the robustness of the multitemporal nature of the SPI. The average temperature and precipitation from 1960 to 2010 in the eastern region of Gansu to each meteorological station were used to calculate the SPEI. The results showed that: over past 50 years, the times of persistent drought events and cumulative duration of persistent droughts has increased, especially spring to summer droughts and summer to fall droughts have significantly increased in eastern region of Gansu. Since 1990s, the duration of drought event has become long. However, it was not obvious in 1980s. It wasn’t inconsistent in drought cycles at different time scales. With the longer time scales, drought cycles were longer appear. Frequency of droughts had been increasing, particularly frequency of extreme drought events increased obviously since 1990s. Over the past 50 years, the higher frequency of droughts were in the northwest of the Huan county and Jingning county that was located in west of Liupan Mountain. On decadal variability, droughts occurred in the high frequency region had transferred to the south-central and eastern study area. Through comparative analysis and historical information confirmed, we suggested that SPEI had good applicability in eastern region of Gansu. In this article, the trends, persistent drought events, the cycles and frequency of drought in eastern region of Gansu was studied based on the SPEI in recent 50 years. The drought trend of eastern region of Gansu was located in the eastern part of Northwest China was obvious compared with general characteristics of drought trend in other regions of the country in recent 50 years. By preliminary analysis, we have come to drought trend in the eastern region of Gansu in recent 50 years was mainly due to obviously increasing in temperature and reduction in precipitation.Although the precipitation and evapotranspiration factors were considered by SPEI, but the drought also was affected by factors of wind, topography, vegetation, and atmospheric circulation. The index didn’t adequately explain the mechanism of drought occurred. In the future, we should study the drought mechanism in-depth and discuss adaptation strategies to droughts in the eastern region of Gansu.
The assessment model of environmental health risk was firstly introduced in this article. Considering the uncertainty of some parameters in the model, triangle fuzzy number was used to express interval range of exposure parameters. The interval range of exposure parameters was transformed into interval estimate by choosing acceptable reliability level of risk management. Then the model on health risk of groundwater quality based on triangle fuzzy number was established. By using the above model, interval estimates of the health risk rate from carcinogens and non-carcinogens by drinking water, skin touch and breathing approach could be respectively calculated in the sources of drinking groundwater. Furthermore, taking the 6 sources of drinking groundwater in Panjin as an example, the health risk rates from carcinogens and non-carcinogens by drinking water, skin touch and breathing approach were respectively calculated according to the groundwater quality data of 6 sources of drinking water. The results showed that the risk rates from carcinogens to human health were greatly bigger than risk rates from non-carcinogens, so risk from non-carcinogens wasn’t usually paid attention by people. The health risk rates from all the contaminants by drinking water were greater than the risk rates by breathing and skin touch approach which can be generally neglected. The health risk rates from carcinogens by drinking water had already exceeded the risk attribute values proposed by U.S.EPA and badly endangered the health of the residents. The health risk rates from carcinogens by breathing and skin touch approach were less than the risk attribute values and had little harm to the people. The ranking of risk values from chemical carcinogens was chromium (Ⅵ), Arsenic, Cadmium, and the ranking of risk values from non-carcinogens was Fluoride, Lead, Copper, Manganese, Zinc, Iron, Mercury, Ammonia, Cyanide, Volatile phenol. Among these sources of drinking groundwater in Panjin, the health risk values from all the contaminants in Dawa groundwater source was highest, the risk values in Xingyi and Xingnan groundwater sources were in the middle, and the risk values in Shishan, Gaosheng and Pandong groundwater sources were the least. Lastly, on the basis of above-calculated health risk rates from carcinogens and non-carcinogens in the sources of drinking groundwater in Panjin, we could conclude that some contaminants were primary and the other contaminants were secondary. The priority of remediation would be given to those primary contaminants. All the results of health risk assessment could provide a reference and basis for risk management of contamination and setting down conservancy measures in the sources of drinking groundwater in Panjin.
Two peat profiles respectively form Laobaishan mire (44°06′N, 128°03′E) and Daqiao mire (43°17′N, 128°22′E) from Changbai Mountains in northeast China, were investigated to reconstruct atmospheric deposition since 2120 B.P., and decide whether Pb inventories in minerotrophic mires are mobile. The plant macrofossil types and characteristics of peat samples indicate Laobaishan mire has developed into ombrotrophic bog, and Daqiao mire is still in minerotrophic status. The largest concentration, accumulation rates of Pb in Laobaishan and Daqiao are 22.23-38.46 ug/g and 8.8-16.33 mg/(m2?y) respectively, and are in the same order of magnitude as the other places in the world. A positive correlation between lithogenic Pb and ash content (r=0.799,n=16,p<0.01) in Laobaishan profile indicate lithogenic Pb mainly from rock weathering underlying peat deposits. Atmospheric Pb is dominant in total Pb deposition that suggests cumulative Pb is most from atmospheric deposition. High enrichment factors of Pb in Laobaishan profile occurred in the middle of 16th century, the early of 18th century and 20th century. They are in good agreement with little ice age during the middle of sixteen centuries, volcano eruption happened in Changbai Mountains in 1702 and human activities in the 20th century. Pb content and accumulation rate recorded in Daqiao mires are the most value in the downmost layer. This corresponds with atmospheric soil dust flux very well. Moreover, the Pb enrichment factor is the greatest at the subsurface.
As the only undeveloped fully delta in China, the expanding coastal wetland in the Yellow River Delta plays an important role in maintaining regional and global ecological security. The typical plants resources provided various habitats for other lives, and it also provided a perfect template for wetlands protection and restoration. In order to know vegetation patterns of new-born wetland in the Yellow River Delta wetland well, a field investigation was conducted in the new-born wetland which was formed from1996 to provide data to support protection and management of this wetland. Investigation results showed that communities were zonal distribution from river to sea. Communities in the new-born wetland were composed of lots of herbaceous plants and few woody plants. Herbaceous plants changed from river bank or sea beach to inner upland, while woody plant changed from inner upland to river bank or sea beach. Most plants near the river were not halotolerant, while plants near the sea were mainly halophyte. Species richness and Shannon-Wiener index showed similar trend. Species diversity of community at upland was larger than that near river or sea. Changes of soil salinity showed similar trends with plant structure; therefore, it suggested soil salinity was the most important factor affecting vegetation distribution pattern in the new-born coastal wetland in the Yellow River Delta.
根据1960~2013年辽西北地区50个雨量站逐日降水量数据和同期太阳黑子相对数数据,利用Mann-Kendall检验法对辽西北地区近54 a来的降水量变化趋势进行分析,采用Morlet小波分析技术分析了研究区降水量和太阳黑子的变化周期,并计算了相应的小波系数。结果表明：辽西北地区降水量年际变化表现为微弱的下降趋势,突变点在1996~1997年之间,突变前后降水趋势由升转降。太阳黑子与降水距平值的负相关关系显著,且存在5 a的滞后性,对降水周期影响较小,与降水量相关关系复杂。
The solar activity and the precipitation are important factors in the research of drought and flood. Study on the relationship between sunspot and precipitation is very important for the further study of regional drought and flood. Therefore this paper selects the typical characteristics of climate in northwest of Liaoning Province as the study area. This article calculates the 50 rainfall stations of daily precipitation data in 1960-2013 in northwest of Liaoning Province and sunspot data during the same period. Combined with the precipitation anomaly and accumulative anomaly, calculation the sliding of an average values of 3 years, Get the analysis result of changes in precipitation conditions and trends; Using the Mann-Kendall test method to analyze the trend of precipitation in recent 54 years in the northwest region of Liaoning Province, and detecting the mutation years; The wavelet coefficient of precipitation and sunspots in northwest area of Liaoning Province were calculated based on the Morlet wavelet analysis method, and drawing the distribution of wavelet coefficients contour maps and the wavelet variance diagram. According to the changes in the time series of 54 years for different time segmentation, analysis on correlation between them, and detect the significant. The results show that, in recent 54 years precipitation showed a decreasing trend in fluctuation, the mutation occurred in 1996-1997 years. The trend of precipitation change after the abrupt change by rising to decreased, and the trend are relatively stable. Sunspot activity influence on the extreme years precipitation anomaly and showed a significant negative correlation. Compared with the sunspot extremism years, there is a lag of 5 years for precipitation changes, the annual precipitation in northwest of Liaoning Province of the main cycle is not too much influence. In different period of time, correlation between sunspot and precipitation showed a complex performance in northwest of Liaoning Province.
基于1981~2010年陕西地区16个气象站观测日值数据,通过联合国粮农组织 (FAO) 推荐的 Penman-Monteith 公式计算参考作物蒸散量,并以Mann-Kendall突变检验、Sen趋势度以及小波分析潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征,同时利用多元回归分析气候因子对其影响强度。结果表明：① 1981~2010年潜在蒸散量呈上升趋势,增速约为3.1 mm/a,没有通过0.05显著水平检验,呈“弱减-强增-减”变化波动。② 研究区潜在蒸散量存在2 a、5 a、8 a、22 a、32 a左右的震荡周期,震荡能量最大是32 a,其次是22 a。在1992年左右出现一次明显的突变,刚好是震荡能量最大32 a周期上发生波动。③ 纬度跨度大和地形复杂使得陕西地区潜在蒸散量空间差异明显。多年平均潜在蒸散量在166.9~1 367.5 mm之间,其中秦巴山一带潜在蒸散量值偏高,其次是陕北地区,关中平原潜在蒸散量值最低。变化趋势呈南北递减,陕南地区潜在蒸散量呈明显的增加趋势,关中地区呈增加趋势,陕北地区呈减少趋势。④ HURST指数分布沿东西向递减,其中在0.4~0.5之间占整个研究区的77.11%,说明大部分地区未来潜在蒸散量变化将与过去变化呈弱的反相持续性变化。⑤ 潜在蒸散量有明显的季节差异,夏季和春季变化最明显,其次是秋季和冬季,其中夏季贡献占主导,其次是春季,贡献最少的是秋季和冬季。⑥ 平均气温、相对湿度和风速对潜在蒸散量的影响较大,其中平均气温的作用最大且呈正影响,其次是相对湿度的影响,但对潜在蒸散量呈负作用。而日照时数和平均气压对潜在蒸散呈弱的正作用。
The temporal and spatial variations of characteristics of potential evaporation in Shaanxi Province is analyzed by the methods of Mann-Kendall, the trend of Sen, and the wavelet analysis, at the same time, the strength of the impact on climate factors is analyzed by the methods of multiple regression analysis, through the Penman Monteith - the formula to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration recommended by the United Nations food and agriculture organization(FAO), on the basis of 16 weather stations observation log data in 1981-2010. The results show that, potential evaporation presents a increasing trend in 1981-2010, with the growth rate reaching about 3.1 mm/a, and it does not pass significant level inspection of 0.05. Presenting a volatility trend of"Weak reduction-strong increase-decreases", which appears a turning point in the early 1990s and in the late 1990s.There exists an oscillation cycle showing about 2 a, 5 a, 8 a,22 a,32 a in the study area, the biggest shock energy is 32 a, and the second is 22 a. In the research period, it appears an obvious mutation in 1992, with the match of the biggest shock energy in 32 a of the cycle fluctuation. The interspace of the potential evaporation in Shaanxi province shows an obvious difference owing to the span latitude and complex topography. The average amount of the potential evaporation is between 166.9-1 367.5 mm for many years, among them, the value of the potential evapotranspiration in Qin Bashan area is the highest,the second is in shanbei region, and the lowest area is in the guanzhong plain. The tendency of the variation shows a descending trend from north to south, the areas where the obvious increase trend of the potential evaporation is in southern shaanxi region, so the guanzhong area and the northern shaanxi region showed a trend of decrease. The HURST index distribution presents a decreasing trend from east to west,which accounted for 77.11% of the entire study area with the index between 0.4-0.5. It shows that there is a weak inverse continuous changing of the potential evapotranspiration in the future and in the past. There is an obvious seasonal difference in the potential evaporation,among them, the change in summer and spring is most obvious,followed by autumn and winter. The dominated rate of contribution is in summer, followed by the spring,and autumn and winter is the least. The average temperature, relative humidity and wind speed have a larger influence on the potential evaporation, the average temperature play the biggest role and the effect is positive, followed by the relative humidity, but the effects on the potential evaporation is negative. Average sunshine time and air pressure play a weak positive role on the potential evaporation.
采用美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）500 hPa高度场逐日再分析资料,基于计算机客观识别方法,统计了1948~2012年5~8月东北冷涡活动过程。结果表明：共计发生东北冷涡过程956次,平均每年5~8月发生约14.7次;东北冷涡活动共4 129 d,5~8月平均分别为14 d、18 d、18 d和14 d,共64 d,占5~8月总天数的52%;5~8月东北冷涡过程以持续3~6 d为主,冷涡活动主要位于121°E~131°E,48°N~53°N区间;5~8月东北冷涡发生频次和活动天数均存在显著增长趋势。7~8月东北冷涡活动异常多年份,贝湖至鄂海阻高与东北冷涡多同时发生,异常少年份,贝湖至鄂海阻高亦不盛行,且阻高先发生冷涡后发生年份占多数。5~6月和7~8月东北冷涡典型特多年高度距平合成场与特少年的主要异常区分布呈反位相,且这种反位相特征在对流层中、高层（200 hPa、500 hPa）均呈近半球尺度的波列分布;5~6月和7~8月东北冷涡活动特少年和特多年差值高度场合成分布相近,均呈现显著的南北向"+、–"波列分布（置信度水平≥99%）,正负波列分别位于西北太平洋区域和鄂霍次克海至白令海区域,该波列对应高度层风场中的相对位置为气旋和反气旋式环流。
Based on the NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data of 500 hPa geopotential height, objective identification method by computer is used to search the Northeast China cold vortex(NECV) activities ongoing process in summer(May to August) from 1948 to 2012 in this study. Results show that the NECV process occured 956 times in total, the average annual occurred about 14.7 times in May-August. And the NECV events of 4 129 days, wherein 14、18、18 and 14 days are occured in May to August, respectively, a total of 64 days 52% of the total number of days. The NECV process main sustained 3-6 days, maintaining position between the 121°E-131°E and 48°N-53°N. Simultaneously, the NECV occurrence frequency and active days significant increases. In July-August, the strong NECV year,Lake Baikal to the Sea of Okhotsk blocking high regularly simultaneoued with the NECV. On the contrary, in the weak NECV year, Lake Baikal to the Sea of Okhotsk blocking high was not prevailed,and in most year the NECV happenned after the blocking high.The Differences in geopotential height anomaly distribution between the strong NECV year and the weak NECV year appear anti-phase distributed, moreover this feature in the middle(500 hPa) and senior(200 hPa) convection showed a nearly hemispherical scale wave train distribution. However their composite differences in geopotential height were similarity , showed a significant meridional "+,-" wave train(exceed 99% confidence level),this wave train was located in the Pacific Northwest region and the Sea of Okhotsk to the Bering Sea region, corresponding to the senior convection cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation.
基于中国东北地区98个气象站点历史数据和WCRP多模式耦合CMIP3输出的IPCC SRES A1B、A2和B1气候变化情景下的降雨资料,计算3、6、12和24个月尺度上的标准化降水指数(SPI),结合M-K检测、EOF分解和小波分析,研究东北地区干旱的时空变化格局及其对气候变化的响应特征。结果表明：① SPI能较好地检测东北地区干湿变化状况,4个时间尺度上主要的空间模态具相似的分布型,其中12个月尺度SPI显示东北大部分地区在过去50 a干旱程度呈显著加剧、范围有明显扩大的趋势,其中南部和中部辽河流域是干旱严重区;② 干旱时间变化特征具明显的空间差异,南部干旱第一主周期为11 a,北部则为3.5 a;③ 气候变化情景下,2011~2060年的干旱以前30 a趋强,之后趋缓,且干旱高发区存在一定的北移趋势。
In order to capture the spatiotemporal patterns of drought vulnerability and predict its response characteristics to climate change in Northeast China (NEC), observed precipitation data sets of 98 meteorological stations in 1961-2010 and output datasets of the WCRP coupled multi-model (CMIP3) for IPCC SRES A1B, A2 and B1 climate change scenarios during 2011-2060 were engaged to calculate the commonly used Standardized Precipitation Index, which analyzed with the popular methods of Mann-Kendall detection, Empirical Orthogonal Function and Wavelet transformation. The main results can be concluded as following. Historical drought-wetness evolution in NEC could be properly detected by the SPI series, and drought severity in most areas significantly increased during last 50 years especially on the 12-month timescale. While drought conditions in southern part and Liao River basin in NEC are always most serious, the first four EOF loadings on different time steps show a similar distribution pattern with some local differences. The drought spatial coverage took on an obviously increasing trend accompanied with drastic inter-annual and inter-decadal fluctuations, and the dominant period were differently identified for the south (11a) and the north (3.5 a). Under the three climate change scenarios, the period of the early 30 years would share most of the mega droughts during 2011-2060, and the A2 scenario may own more frequently and severe drought events than others; more importantly, the drought core may migrate northward to some extent.
利用1961~2010年吉林省雾日统计资料,对吉林省雾日的时空分布特征、变化趋势进行了详细分析,并分析了雾日变化的原因。结果表明：近50 a来,吉林省年和四季雾日的空间分布均呈东南部地区多、西部地区少的分布特征;雾日季节变化特征表现为8~9月多,10月至次年5月少,西部和中部地区雾日数月季变化呈现双峰型,东南部和东部地区呈现单峰型;雾大多数开始于夜间21时至次日早晨09时,结束于夜间22时至次日午后13时,持续时间多在6 h以下。近50 a来,除了春季雾日没有明显变化外,全省平均及各区域年和四季雾日均呈减少趋势;在2000年前后雾日数发生了一次明显的突变。雾日空间分布与海拔高度有密切关系;雾日趋于减少有人类活动导致的“热岛效应”、“干岛效应”、气溶胶密度加大等原因,也有气候趋于暖干化的自然原因。
By using the data of fog days in the period of 1961-2010 in Jilin Province, the characteristics and changes of spatial and temporal distribution of fog days as well as reasons are analyzed. Results show that the spatial pattern of annual and seasonal fog days presents more in southeastern areas and less in western areas of Jilin Province. The seasonal characteristics appear more during Aug. to Sep., but less during Oct. to May. The inter-monthly variation of fog days in western and middle areas appears bimodal pattern, and that in southeastern and eastern areas appears unimodality. Fog usually begins at 21:00-09:00 LST and ends at 22:00-13:00 LST, with duration 0-6 h. In recent 50 years, the annual and four seasonal fog days of the province's average and all areas exhibited decreasing trends. The fog days appear obvious sudden change in 2000.The spatial distribution of fog days have relations with altitude. The causes of fog days decreasing are that the "heat island effect","dry island effect" and the increase of aerosol, and that the climate becaming warm and dry.