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  • 地理科学
      2012年, 第32卷, 第12期 刊出日期:2012-12-20 上一期    下一期
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    中国沿海大都市出口加工区生命周期研究——以上海金桥出口加工区为例
    程进,曾刚,张云伟
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1417-1423.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1417
    摘要   HTML   PDF (424KB)

    以产品生命周期理论和企业生命周期理论等为基础,对上海市金桥出口加工区生命周期演化进行了分析。出口加工区生命周期的分析应结合不同时期产品结构和企业结构的表现特征,根据产品结构和企业结构的演变特征,金桥出口加工区的生命周期历经了加工导向期、制造导向期和创新导向期3个时期。金桥出口加工区生命周期演化的本质是产品的更新换代和企业动态的集聚与消亡过程,是两大类因素共同作用的结果:生产成本上升、投资门槛增高等内部投资环境产生的推力因素;国际直接投资向高科技化和服务化转变、中西部出口加工区竞争力增强、本地开发区的产业联动等外部投资环境产生的拉力因素。反映出金桥出口加工区生命周期是投资主导型的演化过程。


    Export processing zones are special areas established by developing countries or regions to promote economic development by providing favorable measures and barrier-free environment to attract foreign investment and develop export-oriented industries. With the regional economic development, the internal and external development environment of the export processing zone has changed, and the function and nature of the export processing zones have an unceasing evolution and change, and thus to explore the life cycle evolution law of the export processing zones has very important significance. This paper builds an analysis framework of life cycle evolution and industrial evolution of export processing zones based on Product life cycle theory and the corporate life cycle theory, and then analyzes the evolution characteristics and mechanisms of Jinqiao Export Processing Zone life-cycle in Shanghai, which located in the eastern coastal areas of China. The results show that, according to the evolution characteristics of the product structures and enterprise structures, the life cycle of the Jinqiao Export Processing Zone can be divided into three stages: processing-oriented stage, manufacturing-oriented stage and innovation-oriented stage, the increasing proportion of new products and agglomeration of MNCs headquarters and R&D institutions can be observed in the evolution of life cycle. The nature of Jinqiao Export Processing Zone life cycle is the continuous transition of the land-use types and the continuing upgrading of the industrial value chain, and this is the result of the two types factors: The first is push factors which are generated by the internal investment environment, such as the increasing of production costs and the investment threshold; The second is pull factors which are generated by the external investment environment, such as the international industrial transfer has changed to high-tech and services, enhancing competitiveness of Export Processing Zones in the Midwest China and industrial associated-action between local development zones. These all reflect that the evolution of Jinqiao Export Processing Zone life cycle is an investment-driven process, this is different with the market-driven evolution process of life cycle of the export processing zones which are close to the markets of developed countries in the world.

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    中国各省域建设用地开发空间均衡度评价研究
    陈逸,黄贤金,陈志刚,马其芳,张琳
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1424-1429.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1424
    摘要   HTML   PDF (800KB)

    依据空间均衡原理,分析了建设用地开发空间均衡的意义,采用2008年中国各省土地和社会经济数据(不包括港、澳、台地区),构建了建设用地开发均衡度指数,对各省建设用地空间配置合理性进行了评价,结果表明:① 31个省份中,共计23个省份处于均衡状态,占74.2%。但均衡程度各不相同,良性均衡程度以上的共计15个省份,仅占全国土地总面积的34.3%;而处于失衡状态的省份虽然仅有8个,却占全国土地总面积的47.7%,且均衡度大多小于0.3,属于严重失衡。②开发强度和供给能力的对比分析表明,全国有8个省份处于过度开发状态,17个省份开发不足。③建设用地空间配置不仅应考虑到各地经济建设的需要,更应重视开发强度与供给能力之间的协调,尤其应结合中国区域发展政策,将建设用地指标向中西部地区倾斜。


    Based on the principle of spatial equilibrium and analysis of the significance of construction land for spatial balance, the equilibrium index was built to assess the degree of equilibrium in the regional construction land development with the provincial land and socio-economic data of China. Results showed that: 1)Among the 31 provinces in China(exclude Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao), a total of 23 provinces were in the equilibrium state, accounting for 74.2% with huge regional differences between each other. A total of 15 provinces were of high quality equilibrium state, accounting for only 34.3% of the total land area of ??the country. But a total of 8 provinces were in a serious imbalance state, accounting for 47.7% of the total land area of the country. Furthermore their equilibrium degree indices were less than 0.3 which meant serious imbalance. 2) The analysis of construction land exploitation intensity index and construction land supply capacity index showed that 8 provinces of all were over exploited and 17 provinces were developed inadequately. 3) The construction land space allocation should not only take into account the needs of the local economic, more attention should be paid to the coordination between the construction land development exploitation and supply capacity. Particularly in the context of China's regional development policies, the construction land quota should be used more in some areas of the western and central China.

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    中原城市群多中心网络式空间发展模式研究
    史雅娟,朱永彬,冯德显,王发曾,熊文
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1430-1438.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1430
    摘要   HTML   PDF (535KB)

    通过实证中原城市群不同空间的集聚-碎化程度、经济集聚力和交通网络对城市群空间发展的影响,剖析长期以来中原城市群空间发展的特征,提出了中原城市群多中心网络式空间发展的模式。研究结果显示,中原城市群基本处于持续均质发展状态,其发展符合中心地理论K值原则;核心增长极弱核牵引,节点城市发展程度差异不大,节点在区域以发达道路交通交织成网,中原城市群多中心网络式空间发展模式成为一种必然。


    Currently, the polycentric development pattern of urban agglomeration has developed as a trend in the global urbanization. On the basis of reviewing Chinese and foreign polycentric development patterns, the article estimated the degree of agglomeration-fragmentation and the economic concentration force for Zhongyuan urban agglomeration in various scales of regional space, and then analyzed the effect of transport network on the spatial development of Zhongyuan urban agglomeration. Moreover, this article scrutinized the long-term development characteristics and problems that have existed in Zhongyuan urban agglomeration. Therefore, the traditional monopole mode confined the development of Zhongyuan urban agglomeration. Then, based on the empirical analysis of these studies, the polycentric network development pattern for Zhongyuan urban agglomeration is proposed. Our research showed that, 1) The Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration is consistent with the typical development pattern of the plain-type Urban Agglomeration, which demonstrates a continuously homogeneous developing trend among all the city regions. Its development is in accordance with K-value principles of the central place theory. These phenomenon noticed in the past development testified that the Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration has long been in the development path of homogeneous and decentralized evolution for quite a while; 2) Zhengzhou city, as the growth pole of the Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration is weakly leading the growth of other regions, and has phased out from the concentration stage to the concentration-diffusion stage, but hasn′t yet entered into the stage of intense concentration, and therefore it need to further strengthen the concentration force of economic development to improve the radiation force and scale of the whole range of Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration; 3)The node cities in Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration are homogeneously developing in a relatively independent way; the disparities between each city are relatively small in the degree of economic development. The downtowns of each node city almost simultaneously entered into the same stage of concentration-diffusion, but the node cities are still in the stage of intense agglomeration; 4) Zhongyuan urban agglomeration should implement the polycentric development pattern under the strategic framework of the Central Plains Economic zone, which take Zhengzhou as the major pivot, other node cities as the minor pivot, and the transport pathway as the network. Each node cities, as the pivot in the regional network should develop independently and collaboratively, be specialized and functionally complementary; 5) The node cities in Zhongyuan city agglomeration are connected with advanced transport network, and have sculptured the polycentric framework of development, which provide the necessary condition and lied the foundation for the consistent polycentric network-style development of spatial pattern. In brief, the research conducted above prove the inevitable trend of the polycentric spatial pattern of development for the Zhongyuan city agglomeration. With the empirical methodology, the above-mentioned polycentric development patterns of agglomerations development model is specific with the characteristics of Zhongyuan urban agglomeration, which distinct from the Western European countries′ patterns.

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    外商群集投资的区位决定因素:基于验证性因子分析的研究
    王庆喜,徐维祥,朱恒福
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1439-1443.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1439
    摘要   HTML   PDF (365KB)

    外商群集投资(FCI)为存在产业关联的外资集聚。在前人文献基础上,从区位条件、成本驱动、企业集聚和产业关联四个维度提出了一个考察FCI区位选择因素的包含13个测量项目的测量体系,利用来自江苏昆山、吴江、浙江平湖等FCI特征明显地区的106家外资企业的实地调查数据,采用验证性因子方法确证了这一测量体系的内在结构。这为后续研究从FCI区位决定因素的体系和维度上提供了经验证据和逻辑指引。


    FDI (foreign direct investment) location selection is an important subject in international economics and transnational business field. Following the seminal work of Dunning (1973), many researchers have been persisting in contributing to it. Such type of study is advanced along with related theoretical progress and changing circumstances of international economy, and has been far from ended yet. Today, FDI has evolved differently from its original form. One of its development trends is growing into foreign clustering investment (FCI) introduced in this article, which is agglomeration of foreign direct investment through industrial linkages. In comparison with traditional FDI, FCI has two distinctive characteristics, i.e., firm agglomeration and industrial linkages. This means that they may be different in location selection. With respect to FCI location determinants, extant literature has some shortcomings. For instance, little literature has listed location-specific attributes completely and identified their dimensions explicitly; most of literature has depended on second and aggregate data collecting at regional or industrial level. The aim of this study is to investigate latent dimensions of location-specific attributes and factors influencing location decision of foreign clustering investment, so it can be expected to make up for the defects of previous research to a certain extent. Under a review of extant literature, this study proposes that there are four dimensions constituting FCI determinants system, i.e., location conditions, inputs cost, firm agglomeration, and industrial linkages. Then this study put forward a 13-item measurement scale to capture the four dimensions. Through a survey of 106 foreign firms coming from three counties of Kunshan, Wujiang and Pinghu in Yangtze River delta, the confirmatory factor analysis confirms FCI determinant dimensions proposed above. The empirical results indicate that, in addition to traditionally location-specific and cost-driven factors, firm agglomeration and industry linkage should also be taken into consideration of location determinants of FCI. The implication of this study is that future studies should incorporate such dimensions as firm agglomeration and industry linkage into location determinants of FCI-type foreign direct investment, and then they can get relatively correct and complete results.

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    江苏区域文化资本差异及其对区域经济发展的影响
    孟召宜,渠爱雪,仇方道
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1444-1451.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1444
    摘要   HTML   PDF (469KB)

    基于企业家精神的文化资本测度,以私有产权企业就业人数、专利授权量为创业创新精神的代理变量,从县域、省域2个层面分析1990~2010年江苏区域文化资本差异及其对区域经济发展的影响。研究发现: ① 区域文化资本具有动态变化性,呈现不断提升趋势;② 文化资本区域差异明显,呈现西北低东南高的空间格局特征;③ 文化资本对经济发展有着积极的影响,其影响在省域层面强于县域层面,文化资本的经济效应表现出层次性;④ 包含“地方政府企业家精神”的创业精神对经济增长影响尤为明显,江苏经济发展的文化根植具有鲜明的地方性。


    Based on the measurement of entrepreneurship-based culture capital, with employments in private ownership enterprises and patents granted as proxy variables for entrepreneurial spirit and innovative spirit, culture capital and its influence on the development of regional economy are analyzed on county-level and provincial-level in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2010. The results of the study are showed as follows: 1) The regional cultural capital is dynamic. The measurement of cultural capital indicates that, with the optimization of macro environment and the active innovation of cultural subjects, the entrepreneurial spirit and innovative spirit have been continuously enhanced and have gradually shaped the humanistic spirit of Jiangsu with entrepreneurship and innovation as its core, leading to the continuous escalation of the cultural capital in the province. 2) Cultural capital shows regional differences. Jiangsu can be divided into three cultural regions, such as Wu cultural region in the south, Chuhan cultural region in the north and Jianghuai cultural region in the middle. Owing to the difference of cultural genes in different regions and cultural inheritance, the cultural capital on the county level in Jiangsu shows great regional differences with spatial characteristics of stronger cultural capital in the south than in the north. 3) Cultural capital has economic effects. On the county level, a medium-level correlation can be found, on the provincial level, a strong and positive correlation can be found between the employment in private ownership enterprise, patents granted and the 4 variables of GDP, GDP per capita, social investment in fixed assets and regional employment; also the OLS regression on regional GDP and the employment in private ownership enterprise are extremely significant. This indicates that the cultural capital with innovative spirit and entrepreneurial spirit as its core performs an important role on increasing resident income, promoting employment and boosting economic development, moreover, cultural capital exerts different influences at different levels on economy. And 4) cultural embeddedness has the characteristics of distinct locality. The local government entrepreneurship is an important component of entrepreneurial spirit of Jiangsu. In this study, the measurement of the local government entrepreneurship in Jiangsu culture has been realized by private ownership containing mixed ownership. When the private ownership includes mixed ownership, there is a higher correlation between the employment in private ownership enterprises and economic growth and other control variables of economic growth, the OLS regression coefficient is also obviously increased. This shows that the influence of entrepreneurial spirit on economy is particularly enhanced when local government entrepreneurship is concerned and the cultural embeddedness of economic development in Jiangsu shows distinct local traits.

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    黄淮海平原农区农户空心村整治意愿及影响因素实证研究
    王介勇,刘彦随,陈玉福
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1452-1458.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1452
    摘要   HTML   PDF (465KB)

    开展空心村整治是中国现代化建设中破解土地供需矛盾,推进新农村建设,促进城乡协调发展的重大战略。空心村整治必须以农户的广泛参与为基础,农户意愿是决定空心村整治成败的根本因素。以山东省禹城市为案例区,基于高分辨率航空影像和农户抽样调查数据,定量分析了空心村整治的农户意愿及其影响因素。抽样调查显示:27.1%农户无条件赞成空心村整治,59.9%农户表示依政府补偿而定,7.1%农户不赞成,5.9%持无所谓态度。农户空心村整治意愿影响因素的Logistic回归分析表明,农户意愿选择与户主的年龄、家庭子女情况、家庭收入构成、房屋建设年限、房屋建设面积、居住区位、承包耕地面积及村庄空废宅基地比例显著相关。农户的家庭特征是农户意愿选择考虑最多的因素;除农户户主年龄之外,户主自身的其他特征对意愿选择影响不显著;空心化程度越严重的村庄,农户赞成整治的可能性越大,而其他村庄环境因素影响不显著。传统农区空心村整治,应建立区域土地统筹配置机制,显化传统农区农村土地价值,减轻空心村整治给农户带来的经济负担;完善农户家庭利益保障机制,最大限度保护农户合法利益,消除农户的后顾之忧;制定空心村整治中长期规划,充分尊重农户意愿,分片区有序推进空心村整治。


    The land consolidation of hollowing village is a grand strategy during the process of rapid urbanization in China. It might contribute to balance the land supply and demand, promote new countryside building and enhance coordinated development between urban and rural areas. Participation of peasant households is the basement of land consolidation of hollowing village. The willingness of peasant households is the most fundamental reason why land consolidation succeeds or fails. In this study, Yucheng County of Shandong Province was taken as an example of traditional agricultural regions in this research. Based on aerial images and sampling survey data to peasant households, the willingness of households and its caused factors were analyzed. 27.1% of total households agreed land consolidation unconditionally, 59.9% of them depended on the compensation from governments, 7.1% of them didn’t agree and 5.9% of them with no attitude. The agreement probability of households had significant correlation with the age of the host, the characteristic of children, structure of household income, time of housing construction, area of housing land, residential location, area of contract farmland, and vacant housing land proportion. It was the structure of household and their existing benefits that the peasant made decision depend on. The characteristic of the host had no significant correlation with probability of households except their age variable. There was higher probability agreement responded to higher vacant housing land proportion. There were three important suggestion to develop land consolidation of hollowing village: (1) The mechanism of land-displaced between rural and urban should established, it can improve rural land values in traditional agricultural regions; (2) the system to safeguard household property should be established to protect peasants’ existing benefits; (3) to develop a mid-term and long-term plans for land consolidation of hollowing village, and formulate developmental stratagem for different regional depopulation process.

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    丽江旅游气候舒适度与年内客流量变化相关性分析
    曹伟宏,何元庆,李宗省,王淑新,王春凤,常丽
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1459-1464.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1459
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    利用丽江1954~2009年的气候资料,对丽江旅游气候舒适度进行了评价,划分出其等级和旅游适宜期年内分布;结合2006~2010年丽江海外旅游、国内旅游的客流量月指数,在对气候舒适度及特殊影响因素赋值的基础上,采用OLS方法建立线性回归方程。结果显示:气候舒适度与旅游地年内客流量变化有密切关系。海外客流量年内变化分2个时段,在10月~次年4月干季,受气候舒适度影响极其显著,此外还受新年、圣诞假期的影响,海外客流量月指数气候弹性系数为1.31%;在5~9月雨季则呈现较均匀分布状态,平均月指数为8.33%。国内游客客流量变化全年主要受气候舒适度影响,同时还受7、8月暑假及“十一”黄金周影响,客流量月指数气候弹性系数为0.56%。


    Climate comfortable degree is an important factor that influences the tourist destinations. It directly affects yearly variation of tourist traffic. This article, using climate data in the past 54 years (1954-2009), makes a comment on the tourist climate comfort in Lijiang and divides grades of fitness and periodic distribution. Combining monthly visitors index of overseas tourists and domestic tourists in Lijiang in the past five years , based on numerical value of climate comfortable degree and fictitious factors, OLS method was adopt to establish the correlation of monthly visitors index and related climate comfortable degree and fictitious factors. The result shows that: 1) Yearly variation of overseas tourists is divided into two periods during the year. It is mainly affected by climate comfort degree in the dry season from October to April of the next year, and also affected by the New Year holiday. Monthly index of climatic coefficient of elasticity is 1.31%. It is more evenly distributed in the rainy season from May to September. The average monthly index of overseas tourism is 8.33%. 2) For domestic tourism, yearly variation of tourists is primarily affected by climate comfort degree during the year. Summer vacation in July and August, National Day “Golden Week” have effect also. The correlation of yearly variation of tourists and climate comfort degree is significantly. Monthly index of climatic coefficient of elasticity is 0.56%. This study provides scientific basis for the forecast of yearly variation of tourist traffic, and the development of tourism in Lijiang.

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    基于GIS的关中地区农业生产自然灾害风险综合评价研究
    周寅康,金晓斌,王千,杜心栋
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1465-1472.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1465
    摘要   HTML   PDF (674KB)

    旱灾、洪灾等自然灾害对农业生产有重要影响,通过分析关中地区主要自然灾害类型,选择各类型灾害的主要影响因素,建立评价模型,对关中地区农业生产中可能遭受的自然灾害风险进行综合分析评价,结果表明:关中地区农业生产自然灾害综合风险总体较高,高、中、低级别风险区分别占研究区面积的28.2%、46.6%和25.2%,其中高风险区主要分布在凤县、太白县、麟游县以及陇县的北部地区,中风险区主要分布在台塬边缘区和低山地区,低风险区主要分布在关中盆地地区,从具体灾害类型上看,高风险区域主要面临地质灾害和水土流失的威胁,中风险区域主要灾害是水土流失和生态环境恶化,低风险区域则是干旱和洪涝灾害。


    China is one of the few countries severely affected by natural hazards. Since 1990s, the economic losses caused by natural disasters have been an obvious upward trend. According to the statistics, the farmland area which affected by various natural disasters each year reaches to 34 × 106hm2, natural disasters caused great economic losses which take up 3%~6% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Guanzhong region locates in the Loess Plateau and belongs to the arid and semiarid area, Because of the vulnerable ecological environment and complex topography of the region, soil erosion, debris flow and other disasters happened frequently. Meanwhile, drought, flood and other natural disasters have great impact on the agricultural production. Therefore, assessment, especially comprehensive assessment of natural disaster for agricultural production is very significant. The main influence factors of each disaster were selected based on the analysis of the type and character of natural disaster in the present paper. Furthermore, comprehensive assessment model is developed to analyze and evaluate the natural disaster risk which the agricultural production of Guanzhong region may suffer. The results show that agricultural production natural disaster risk in Guanzhong region is generally high. The corresponding area of different risk grade for higher-grade, medium-grade and lower-grade is 28.2%, 46.6%and 25.2% , respectively. The higher-grade risk area is mainly located in Fengxian County, Taibai Country, Linyou County and the northern part of Longxian Country, medium-grade risk area is mainly distributed in the tableland edge of the area and low mountain areas, while lower-grade risk area is mainly distributed in the Guanzhong basin. The main type of disaster in higher-grade risk area is geological disaster and water and soil erosion, the main type of disaster in medium-grade risk area is water and soil erosion and ecological environment, while the main type of disaster in lower-grade risk area is drought and flood.

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    南京大学土地利用碳排放研究进展
    赵荣钦,陈志刚,黄贤金,钟太洋,揣小伟,赖力,张墨逸
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1473-1480.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1473
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    土地利用是低碳经济和碳排放研究的重要切入点,也是进行碳排放调控的重要工具之一。开展土地利用碳排放研究,有助于从土地利用规划、产业结构调控及国土开发与整治等领域全面引导经济社会的低碳发展。2007年以来,南京大学在国内地理学界较早开展了土地利用碳排放研究,研究进程主要包括两个阶段:区域不同尺度碳排放核算及驱动机制研究、土地利用及其变化的碳排放效应及优化调控研究。经过文献梳理与分析,从区域碳排放核算、因素分析及减排潜力研究、土地利用及其变化的碳排放效应研究、区域土地利用及产业空间的碳足迹分析、面向低碳目标的土地利用结构优化研究、城市系统碳循环及其土地调控研究等方面对南京大学土地利用碳排放的主要研究方向进行了总结和评述;结合南京大学学科发展优势,提出了土地利用碳排放研究的发展趋势,主要包括:典型产业区碳排放研究、城市改造和环境设计与碳排放的关系研究、城市功能区碳排放研究、低碳土地利用规划的编制与应用、区域碳排放的土地调控机制与方法体系研究等。


    To explore the influences of human activities on global carbon cycle, anthropogenic carbon emission has become the major concern and a “hot spot” in academic circles. The most important anthropogenic influences on climate are greenhouse gas emissions and land use changes. As the direct embodiments of industrial activities and government policies, the alteration of land use structure will change the pattern, structure of human energy consumptions, and will further change the natural and human carbon emission intensity and affect regional carbon cycle processes and efficiency. So, the impact of human economic and energy activities on regional carbon cycle is largely achieved by changing the land use structure and pattern. Therefore, land use is an important aspect in the research of low-carbon economy and carbon emission, and is also one of the important tools for carbon emission regulation and control. Research on land use carbon emission is helpful to promote the developing of low-carbon economy through land use planning, industrial structure regulation and control and territorial development, renovation and management. Since 2007, depending on the Non-profit Industry Financial Program of Ministry of Land and Resources of China and National Social Science Foundation of China, based on the research background and discipline advantages in Human Geography, researches on land use carbon emission appeared in human geography discipline of Nanjing University, which was quite earlier in China. Research process of land use carbon emission in Nanjing University includes two stages: research on regional carbon emission estimation and its driving mechanism on different scales, and the research on carbon emission effect of land use change and its optimization and regulation and control. According to the literature review on land use carbon emission research of Nanjing University, the main directions and achievements in the past several years was summarized. The main researches are: regional carbon emission estimation, decomposition analysis and carbon emission reduction potential, carbon emission effect of land use change, carbon footprint of regional land use and industrial space, low-carbon land use structure optimization and regulation, carbon cycle of urban system and its regulation through land use control, etc. Generally, researches on land use carbon emission in Nanjing University not only promoted the deepen of land use research in geography, but also provide practical guide for local government to assess carbon emission effect and carry out low-carbon land use structure optimization in land use planning. Finally, with considering the discipline advantages of Human Geography in Nanjing University, the future research trends of land use carbon emission was put forward, such as: carbon circulation and carbon emission of typical industrial districts, relationship between urban renewal of land use space, urban environmental design and carbon emission, carbon emission of different urban functional districts, establishment and application of low-carbon urban planning and land use planning schemes, mechanism and method system of land use regulation and control on regional carbon emission.

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    中国公众对全球气候变化认知与支持减缓气候变化政策研究——基于全球调查数据和与美国比较视角
    常跟应,黄夫朋,李曼,李国敬
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1481-1487.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1481
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    公众对气候变化的认知影响个人和家庭限制温室气体排放、支持减缓气候变化的政策措施等。基于5次全球调查数据和与美国的对比,分析了中国公众对气候变化的认知、减缓气候变化支付意愿和对气候政策的支持。分析表明中国大部分公众听说过气候变化,认为人类活动是气候变化的重要原因,但对气候变化深层原因了解不够;大部分公众认为气候变化对自然灾害的发生、降水和水资源、食物种类等带来了很大不利影响,进而担忧气候变化,认为气候变化问题很严重;大部分公众认为限制温室气体排放是国际社会共同的责任,应该立即采取行动限制温室气体排放,包括改变生活方式、接受较高的能源价格、保护森林、取消政府对私家车的补贴、提高机动车的能效等。最后讨论了进一步需要研究的问题。


    Public opinion on climate change influences greenhouse gas emission of individuals and households and their support of climate policy. Based on five global surveys (Pew Global Attitudes Project Survey 2006, BBC World Service 2007, World Public Opinion 2009, BBC World Service and GlobeScan 2009, and World Bank 2009), this article compared public opinion on climate change and support for climate policy between China and USA. Surveys showed that about four-fifth of Chinese respondents heard about climate change and believed that human activity was a significant cause of climate change, whereas more American respondents heard about climate change and less believed that human activity was a significant cause of climate change. About two-thirds of Chinese respondents thought that climate change has already affected our life, whereas only one-third of American respondents held this view. If no actions are taken to mitigate climate change, more than four-fifths of Chinese respondents believed that future climate change will have significant, negative influences on the likelihood of natural disasters, rainfall and available water resources and the types of food, whereas American respondents had a more positive perception. Chinese respondents had greater worry about climate change than American ones, and 70% of Chinese respondents supported urgent actions to limit emission of greenhouse gases, including change in individual life style and behavior, acceptance of higher energy costs, preserving or expanding forested areas, gradual increase in fuel efficiency of automobiles and gradual reduce of government subsidies that favor private transportation, whereas less American respondents supported such actions. 90% of Chinese respondents thought that the central government should place a high priority on addressing climate change, whereas less than 50% of American respondents held this view, and more than two-thirds of both Chinese and American respondents took the view that both rich and poor countries should take measures to address climate change. Finally, future studies were discussed.

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    基于环境减灾卫星CCD数据与决策树技术的植被分类研究
    刘睿,冯敏,孙九林,廖顺宝,王卷乐
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1488-1495.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1488
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    以内蒙古呼伦贝尔地区为例,基于遥感数据获取区域7种典型植被的NDVI时间序列曲线。在此基础之上,分析曲线趋势及其特征值,研究基于曲线差异的植被分类信息提取方法。同时,以国产环境减灾卫星CCD数据作为主要遥感数据源,提取研究区5月上旬与8月上旬两期NDVI数据及其比值,采用决策树分类方法研究得到区域30 m空间分辨率植被分类结果。经实地验证,一级类型总体分类精度为83.64%,二级类型为70.91%,其中乔木林的分类精度最高,然后是农田与草地,灌丛的分类精度相对最低。结果表明该方法能够快速、准确据提取植被分类信息,为国产环境减灾卫星CCD数据的广泛深入应用提供理论与数据支持。


    Vegetation is critical for researches about global environmental change and regional sustainable development, and remote sensing is an important method for obtaining classification result. However, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series method classification was limited by the coarse spatial resolution, and application of the medium high data such as Landsat TM was limited by the coverage and accessibility of remote sensing data. The Chinese environmental mitigation HJ satellite CCD sensors are capable of large area, all-time monitoring, and have a great advantage in coverage and frequency of repeated observations. A case study of Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia was carried out in this paper. The NDVI time series curve of 7 vegetation types were extracted from both MODIS and HJ CCD data. Then, the curves and eigenvalue were analyzed. The result showed that between the 7 vegetation types, there was significant differences in the value range of early May NDVI, early August NDVI and the ratio of the two NDVI image. The vegetation classification rules were extracted based on these differences. The HJ-CCD was used as the main data sources in this paper. Three images including two NDVI and one ratio were extracted and the decision tree method was applied. Based on the result, 30 m spatial resolution vegetation classification result was carried out. By field verification, the result shows a 83.64% overall accuracy in the level one classification, and 70.91% in the level two classification. The cartographic accuracy of evergreen coniferous forest can achieve 100%, followed by cropland 82.61%, mixed forest 76.19% and desert steppe 75%. The accuracy of shrub is relatively low to 50%. This result proved a fast, simple and accurate method for vegetation classification, and provided the theory and data support for application of the Chinese HJ satellites.

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    区域土地利用方式对农村土地经营权流转的影响——以北京市昌平区为例
    刘同,李红,孙丹峰,姜宛贝,周连第
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1496-1502.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1496
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    以北京市昌平区为例,将农村土地经营权流转分为流转发生及流转后土地非农化发生等两个变化过程。分别采用传统Logistic和Autologistic回归模型分析了流转发生前、后区域土地利用方式对土地流转景观过程的影响。结果显示,城镇用地是推动土地流转发生最为重要的利用方式,但同时城镇用地也加速了流转后的土地由农业利用向非农利用的转变;在尺度上,区域土地利用方式对土地流转发生的影响主要体现在1~5 km的中尺度上,对流转土地非农化发生的影响则体现在0~1 km的小尺度上;相比较传统的Logistic模型,考虑了空间自相关效应的Autologistic模型具有更高的解释精度,因此在对土地流转进行驱动力分析时不能忽视空间自相关的影响。


    Agricultural land use right transfer (LURT) is an important rural land reform in recent years in China. The LURT was affected by many factors, and social-economic factors were usually studied. However, the landscape processes of LURT and the impact of regional land use types on LURT is little understood. According to the effects of LURT on landscape, LURT can be divided into two processes: land use right transfer in rural operating land and non-agricultural occurrence in the transferred land. Based on the two processes, this article defined the transferred type and non-transferred type for the land use right transfer, and non-agricultural type and agricultural type for the non-agricultural occurrence. Changping district of Beijing was took as a case, and the relationships between the regional land use types and LURT landscape processes were established with Logistic and Autologistic models. The results showed that urban and city land is the most important land use type to cause the occurrence of land use right transfer, meanwhile, the type also stimulated the change of agricultural use to non-agricultural use in transferred land. On the scale of historical land uses effects, the influence of these land uses was mainly reflected at the medium scale region (1-5 km) and the small scale region (0-1 km) for the occurrence of land use right transfer and the occurrence of non-agricultural uses in transferred patches respectively. Compared with traditional Logistic model, Autologistic model containing the spatial autocorrelation effects has higher accuracy, thusspatial autocorrelation effects cannot be ignored for the study the driven forces on LURT.

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    青藏高原近40年来气候变化特征及湖泊环境响应
    姜永见,李世杰,沈德福,陈炜,金传芳
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1503-1512.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1503
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    以青藏高原52个气象台站1971~2008年的逐月气温、降水资料为基础,采用因子分析、气候趋势分析、气候突变分析等方法,对高原内部不同区域的气候变化特征进行研究,并讨论了高原湖泊环境对气候变化的响应。结果表明,近40 a来,青藏高原各区域年平均气温整体持续上升,柴达木地区增温尤为显著,年平均气温增长率达0.49℃/10a;1987年和1998年各区域气温普遍由低向高突变,1998年以来增温尤为显著。年可利用降水的变化特征存在区域差异,柴达木地区、藏北南羌塘高原东部地区整体增湿。除藏东地区,青藏高原其它地区气候条件于20世纪末21世纪初由暖干向暖湿转变,受其影响,以青海湖、鄂陵湖、冬给措纳、兹格塘错为代表的高原大型湖泊表现出水位上升、湖水离子浓度减小的特征,反映了气候暖湿条件下湖泊水量的增加。


    Regional climate changes in different regions in the Tibetan Plateau in 1971-2008 are analyzed based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data from 52 meteorological stations. Regional weighted average values of meteorological elements are calculated by factor analysis. Rate of linear tendency and moving t-test are used to indicate the change trends and detect abrupt changes of meteorological elements respectively. Besides, lake environment changes in the Tibetan Plateau are discussed as the responses to the regional climate changes. The results show that the annual mean temperature has continued to rise at the rate of 0.22-0.49℃/10a in all the subregions in the Tibetan Plateau in recent 40 years,the increase of annual mean temperature is particularly significant in the Qaidam region with a warming rate of 0.49 ℃/10a. The annual mean temperature experienced two abrupt changes from low to high in 1987 and 1998 respectively and the latter is more significant than the former. The interannual variations of annual available precipitation show some differences among the subregions in the Tibetan Plateau, an overall trend of humidification is found in the Qaidam region and the east part of south Qiangtang Plateau in the northern Tibet. The variation of lake environment is affected by the climate change in the Tibetan Plateau notably. The increase and decrease of lake water volume are corresponding with humid and dry period of climate. Climatic condition has shifted from warm-dry to warm-humid since the late 20th century or early 21st century in Qinghai, the northern and southern Tibet. In some large lakes such as Qinghai Lake, Eling Lake, Donggi Conag Lake and Zige Tangco Lake in the Tibetan Plateau, water level has risen and water ion concentration has decreased in recent years, which reflects the increase of lake water volume under the warm-humid climatic conditions.

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    基于分区和多元数据的青藏高原温泉区域多年冻土分布研究
    张秀敏,盛煜,赵林,吴吉春,陈继,杜二计,游艳辉
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1513-1520.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1513
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    以野外勘探、室内理论分析与建模为主要研究方法,以数字高程模型(GDEM)和实测数据为基础进行统计分析,发现坡向对多年冻土分布具有重要影响。针对青藏高原温泉区域地形的复杂性,基于分区的方法将研究区分为平原区和山区两个地形区。对于平原区来说,考虑到苦海湖泊对多年冻土的影响,将苦海滩地单独划出并采用专家知识完成冻土制图,其余平原区采用建立的地温模型进行冻土制图;对于山区来说,通过定量化研究坡向对冻土地温的影响建立了基于坡向调整作用下的地温模型,应用此模型完成了山区的冻土分布图。以地温作为冻土类型划分的依据,分析了研究区域冻土的空间分布与特征,结果表明:多年冻土的分布面积为1 681.4 km2,占整个区域的66.7%,其中,过渡型和亚稳定型多年冻土为主要多年冻土类型,两者占整个研究区域的50.8%,其次为不稳定型多年冻土(11.4%),稳定型和极稳定型多年冻土的面积比例相对较小(4.4%和0.2%)。从空间分布格局来看,冻土分布具有明显的垂直分带特征,随着海拔高度的升高,冻土地温逐渐降低,冻土类型依次经历季节冻土-不稳定型多年冻土-过渡型多年冻土-亚稳定型多年冻土-稳定型多年冻土-极稳定型多年冻土的变化。


    The Wenquan area is located in the southeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau. Administratively, it extends across four counties, Xinghai, Maduo, Maqin and Dulan of the Qinghai Province, western China. It is a transitional area from the seasonally frozen soil to permafrost. In order to understand distribution patterns of permafrost in the area, a comprehensive field exploration was carried out, from September to October, in 2009. Based on the methods of field exploration, as well as theoretic analysis and model building in doors and the data of digital elevation model and field, it was found that aspect has important influence on the distribution of permafrost. In this paper, sub-region classification method was proposed to deal with the distribution of permafrost because of the impact of complex terrain. For the plain area, the permafrost distribution map in Kuhai area was completed by the expert knowledge and other areas’ maps which completed by means of annual ground temperature model. For the mountain area, the effects of aspect on the distribution of permafrost were studied quantitatively and a permafrost distribution model was constructed. Taking ground temperatures of permafrost as classification principles, the distribution map of permafrost and the spatial distribution patterns analysis were carried out. The results showed that the area of permafrost was 1 681.4 km2, accounting for 66.7% of the whole area. The transitional and sub-stable permafrost were the major types of permafrost, accounting for 50.8% of the whole area; unstable permafrost was accounted for about 11.4% of the total area, yet the percentage of stable and extreme-stable were smaller relatively, the percentage was 4.4% and 0.2% respectively. From the distribution pattern of permafrost, vertical zoning characteristics were demonstrated in the distribution of permafrost, i.e., the type of frozen ground would be altered with the increase of altitude and the decrease of permafrost ground temperature. A change was that seasonal frozen ground changed into unstable permafrost, then transitional permafrost, then substable permafrost, then stable permafrost, and extremely stable permafrost eventually with the increase of elevation.

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    黄河口滨岸潮滩湿地土壤碳、氮的空间分异特征
    牟晓杰,孙志高,刘兴土
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1521-1529.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1521
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    2009年5月,运用地统计学方法研究了黄河口滨岸潮滩湿地土壤碳、氮的空间分布格局。结果表明,潮滩湿地土壤的TC、TN和C/N含量具有明显的水平变异性,自表层向下均呈显著降低趋势,总体表现为TN>C/N>TC。潮滩湿地土壤不同土层TN和C/N含量的水平分布空间结构明显,分别符合不同的变异函数理论模型,且具有强烈/中等程度的空间相关性,其空间变异性均以向低潮滩延伸且受潮汐涨落影响较大的方向为最大,自然结构因素在引起TN和C/N空间异质性中的贡献占优,随机因素的影响相对较小。潮滩湿地土壤不同土层TN和C/N具有明显的空间分布格局,表层土壤的TN含量向低潮滩延伸方向形成明显斑块低值区,边缘则形成斑块高值区,而不同土层的C/N以及亚表层的TN则与之相反。研究发现,微地貌特征和潮汐微域物理扰动强度是导致空间异质性的重要随机因素,而水盐条件、土壤类型和潮汐物理扰动是重要结构因素。湿地有机质来源以陆源为主,且越靠近海的方向,潮滩湿地土壤中的有机质受陆源的影响越大。


    In May 2009, the spatial distribution patterns of carbon and nitrogen contents in the tidal marsh soil of the Yellow River estuary were studied by geostatistic methods. Results showed that the horizontal variability of TC, TN and C/N in the tidal marsh was significant and decreased with depths, in the order of TN> C/N> TC. The horizontal distribution of TN contents and C/N in different soil layers had significant spatial structure, which accorded with different variogram theoretical model and had a strong or moderate spatial correlation. The maximum spatial variability was observed in the direction extending to the low tidal marsh, which was greatly affected by the ebb and flow of tide. The natural structure factors had significant effects on the spatial variability, while the effects of random factors were relatively low. The spatial distribution patterns of TN contents and C/N in different soil layers were significant, the low TN contents in topsoil was generally observed in the direction extending to the low tidal marsh and the high value appeared on the edge of the study area, while the C/N ratio of the different soil layers and the TN content in subsurface layer were opposite. This study indicated that micro-physiognomy characteristic and tidal micro-domain physical disturbance were two important random factors to induce spatial heterogeneity, while water and salinity statuses, soil types and tide physical disturbance were three important structure factors. The sources of organic matter in the tidal marsh were mainly land-based sources, and the effects of land-based sources on organic matter in the tidal marsh were greater in the direction closer to the sea.

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    河谷地形下兰州市城市热岛效应的时空演变研究
    张建明,王鹏龙,马宁,张超
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1530-1537.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1530
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    基于1999年和2010年的Landsat ETM+和TM影像,以单窗算法反演了兰州市地表温度,研究兰州市最近10 a的城市热岛时空分布以及演变特征。研究结果表明:兰州市城市热岛的空间分布与延展与城市建城区的扩展相一致,热岛范围不断扩大,次中温和中温区大面积减少,相应的次高温和高温区大面积增加,热岛强度明显增强;除了城市下垫面覆盖类型,黄河低温带亦逐渐成为影响城市热岛分布的重要因子。各土地利用类型的平均温度均有所升高,建设用地和未利用地温度最高,对热岛效应贡献最大,是城市热岛的主要贡献因子,绿地和水体能够很好的缓解热岛效应。地表温度和信息指数NDVI、MNDWI、NDBI、NDBaI在兰州市河谷空间格局上显著相关,存在很好的对应关系。


    With the progress of urbanization, Urban Heat Island (UHI) has been becoming a key factor in deteriorating the urban ecological environment. Studying spatial-temporal evolution and its cause of typical area′s UHI and quantitatively evaluating effect from rapid urbanization on urban heat environment will provide theoretical foundation for relieving UHI effect and also have some useful reference value for ecological environment planning of urban planning. Based on LandsatETM+ and TM images of Lanzhou in 1999 and 2010, with the aid of GIS and RS, this article has retrieved the land surface temperature (LST) of Lanzhou City by Qin’s mono-window algorithm, and then analyzed spatial-temporal pattern and evolution characters of UHI in Lanzhou City in this decade, and the results show that: 1) The spatial pattern and stretch of UHI are consistent with distribution of built district in Lanzhou City. With the expansion of built district, UHI area constantly expanded and the area of less medium temperature and medium temperature had a large reduction, accordingly, the area of less high temperature and high temperature had a large increase, and consequently UHI intension obviously enhanced. Also, as building density of urban area has been increasing gradually, besides land use/covers type, low temperature belt caused by the Yellow River has been becoming a key factor in affecting the spatial pattern of UHI, and within a certain distance, it has the trend that LST tends to go down from the Yellow River to both sides. 2) From 1999 to 2010, average LST of each land use/cover type had a increase, and LST of different land use/cover type had obvious difference. LST of urban construction land and unused land was the highest, and they had the largest contribution to UHI effect, that is to say, they are the main contribution factor, on the contrary, green land and waterbody can reduce LST significantly, therefore, rational planning can effectively relieve the UHI effect. 3) This article has achieved 37 profiles from southeast to northwest of basin valley and calculated their land use index values (NDVI、MNDWI、NDBI and NDBaI) and LST, the results show that there existed significant correlation and corresponding relations between LST and the four land use indices.

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    天津市设计暴雨的空间分布特征
    李明财,任雨,熊明明,杨艳娟
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (12): 1538-1544.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.012.1538
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    设计暴雨是区域防洪排涝和城市市政排水的重要基础,是关系到区域安全和城市运行的重要问题。利用天津站和塘沽站完整的分钟降雨量资料以及环城四区和滨海新区其它台站的降雨年最大值资料,推求了各台站的暴雨强度公式,分析了天津市城市化对设计暴雨强度的影响,以及中心城区与滨海新区的空间差异。结果表明:城市化对设计雨量有明显的影响,城区重现期1 a的暴雨强度有降低的趋势,而重现期3 a以上的暴雨强度有所增强,而且城市化效应在不同环城区域存在明显的一致性,环城四区排水设计在重现期1 a及以下时对城市化影响应有所考虑,而3 a以上重现期设计雨量采用中心城区暴雨公式是安全的;滨海新区3个区域各历时不同重现期下的暴雨强度均高于中心城区,尤其是塘沽远远高于中心城区,滨海区域采用全市统一的暴雨公式进行排水系统设计是不安全的,宜采用滨海新区各区县当地的暴雨强度公式。


    Rainstorm, which is of great importance for regional flood control and city municipal drainage, is closely related to the regional security and urban running. In this paper, the rainstorm intensity formulas for every station were deduced using complete rainfall-in-minute data of Tianjin and Tanggu stations and annual maximum rainfall data for other stations. According to the difference in design rainfall volume between the urban area and four districts around urban area, the effect of urbanization on design rainstorm intensity was determined. In addition, the spatial difference of design rainfall between the urban area and Tianjin Binhai New Area was analyzed. The results showed that urbanization effect had apparent influence on design rainfall volume, showing decrease trend in rainstorm intensity of 1 year recurrence period, whereas increasing rainstorm intensity with the recurrence period of 3-10 years. Importantly, the urbanization effect showed a clear consistency in different districts around urban area. This suggests, with the recurrence period of shorter than 1 year, urbanization should be considered in the drainage system design of suburbs. By contrast, it is safe to use the rainstorm intensity formula of the urban area under recurrence period of longer than 3 years. Rainstorm intensity was very higher in three districts, especially Tanggu in Binhai New Area compared with the urban area. This indicates that rainstorm intensity formula for the urban area is unsafe in the design of drainage systems of the Binhai New Area. The local rainstorm intensity formula should be deduced to satisfy the design of drainage systems in the Binhai New Area.

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