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CN 22-1124/P
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  • 地理科学
      2013年, 第33卷, 第7期 刊出日期:2013-07-20 上一期    下一期
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    中国极化区发展及功能评估研究
    段学军,虞孝感,Nipper Josef,张维阳,于露
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 769-778.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.769
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1257KB)

    通过中国极化区发展及功能模式分析方法探讨,构建识别极化区功能的指标体系,采用极化区发展分析及功能评估方法,对中国已经批准建设的、具有极化区发展潜力的16个规划发展区进行了发展状况分析及功能定量评估,并提出发挥重要竞争力和影响力、承担重要引领带动功能、具有重要门户和枢纽地位、支撑落后地区快速发展等4类适合中国区域发展现状的极化区发展功能模式。


    Economic Polarized Area has priority development functions and goals in the planning due to its special value in regional development and important strategic role in the national economy. In the era of economic globalization, more cooperation and competition among countries, Economic Polarized Area plays an important role in competing with other regions or countries in the world. In this article, the method of analyzing the development status and function mode of Economic Polarized Area is proposed and the indicator system to identify the function is founded. With three goals of improving the urbanization level, coordinating the development among regions and enhancing international competitiveness, multiple regional planning with national strategic significance and international competitiveness has been approved. In this article, the development status and functions of 16 Economic Polarized Areas approved are analyzed and evaluated through the way of analysis and functional evaluation. Based on the analysis and evaluation, several development function modes of Economic Polarized Area which are fitting with the development status of China are put forward.

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    长江三角洲地区城市全球化进程的时空差异分析——基于两省一市的实证研究
    王聪,曹有挥,姚士谋,刘可文,王丽
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 779-788.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.779
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (785KB)

    以长江三角洲地区(包括江苏、浙江和上海全部的25个地级以上城市)为研究对象,从经济联系、人员流动、信息交流、政府合作4个方面评估了长三角地区全球化进程的时空差异以及不同城市之间的依赖性和空间自相关特征,并对不同指标的变化进行了深入探讨。研究表明:受2001年加入世贸组织和2010年上海成功举办世博会的积极影响,以及2003年全国非典和2008年金融危机的消极影响,该区域全球化程度表现出了不同阶段性的特征。从时间序列来看,2000~2009年,长三角地区全球化发展表现为加速上升、稳步上升和相对平稳的发展过程,但不同指标表现出各自不同的特征。从空间格局来看,长三角地区的全球化程度从比较集中逐渐向较为合理的均衡方向发展,后进区域提升较快,全球化影响下的城市体系更趋合理。从作用机制分析,市场和行政因素共同推动着城市的全球化进程。


    Globalization is not a one-way and homogeneous process, but the state of multi-dimension and the co-exist development in integration and fragmentation. Along with the global flow of capital, the global expansion of multinational corporations and the formation of world production network, globalization has become an important driving force to promote and shape the development of urban areas. However, the current study of urban regions more focuses on the function and nature of large cities, less mentions the spatio-temporal intra-regional transformation of globalization process, in the meantime, indicators involved in the study mainly concentrate in more urban economic function and less composite indicators. With the development of the integration of the world economy, urban regions, taking metropolitan area as the core region, is increasingly becoming a basic spatial unit of global competition, the spatio-temporal evolution and spatial disparity of globalization process of the specific space is particularly important. Over the past decades, the globalization development of some cities in China has made rapid development, more and more world urban researchers have become increasingly concerned about the globalization development of cities and regions in China and other developing countries. At the same time, as the country's largest urban agglomerations, the Changjiang River Delta is in a position of the forefront of China's participation in economic globalization, and is more sensitive and directly affected by the impact of external economy. In the light of above studies, regarding the Changjiang River Delta as the research object, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, for a total of 25 prefecture-level cities, the article builds the index system from 4 aspects of economic contact, personnel flow, information communication and government cooperation, considering existing studies on the globalization index, combined with the concept of world cities and global cities, as well as the stage of global development in the Changjiang River Delta. Based on the index system above, the article assesses the spatio-temporal differences and dependence between different cities and spatial autocorrelation characteristics of globalization process of the Changjiang River Delta, and more importantly, spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the different indicators are analyzed in detail. The results show that subject to the positive impact of accession to the WTO in 2001 and Shanghai World Expo held successfully in 2010, the negative impact of SARS in 2003 and the financial crisis in 2008, the globalization of the Changjiang River Delta expresses the characteristics of different stages. From the time series from 2000 to 2009, the performance of the globalization process showed accelerated increasing, steady rising and downward trend, but the different indicators showed different characteristics. From the spatial pattern, the globalization of the Changjiang River Delta gradually tend to be a balanced development of more reasonable from more concentrated state, backward regions develop quickly, and urban system is more reasonable under the influence of globalization. Using analytical methods of ESDA and Getis-Ord Gi*, the findings are that, the globalization process of the inter-county exhibits a strong dependence on the spatial concentration. Meanwhile, it is found that market and administrative jointly promote the process of globalization.

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    江苏省污染密集型产业空间转移及影响因素
    仇方道,蒋涛,张纯敏,单勇兵
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 789-796.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.789
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (493KB)

    污染密集型产业空间转移规律及其动力机制研究正在成为区域可持续发展研究的热点领域之一。利用2000~2010年江苏省13个省辖市的统计数据,运用空间分析及面板数据分析模型,探讨该省污染密集型产业空间转移特征及作用机制。结果发现:江苏省依然是国际污染密集型产业的承接地,其污染密集型产业分布呈现以苏锡常地区为核心向外围逐渐下降的“核心-边缘”型空间格局,并显示出“扩散-集聚-扩散”的空间演化趋势,苏北地区正在成为苏南地区的“污染避难所”;发展阶段和实际利用外资是江苏省承接污染密集型产业的主要因素,实际利用外资是实现污染密集型产业向江苏转移的主要形式;技术创新、产业结构是驱动污染密集型产业由苏南、苏中向苏北转移的主要因素;政府调控是影响污染密集型产业转移的主要手段。因此,应通过加大产业结构转型升级和技术创新力度、改善政府调控、加强环境监管等措施促进污染密集型产业布局优化。


    The spatial relocation of pollution-intensive industries and its associated mechanism are becoming increasingly hot in regional sustainable development. Using a statistical panel data, the characteristics of spatial relocation of pollution-intensive industries in Jiangsu are explored, and further, the mechanism of it is discussed, based on the spatial analysis and statistical modeling. Three important findings are gotten. First, the pollution-intensive industries demonstrated a downward trend in the industrial system of Jiangsu Province in the last 10 years. Spatially, the pollution-intensive industries gradually moved from Jiangsu’s core areas. More specifically, the growth rate of pollution-intensive industries originally followed a pattern of South Jiangsu>Middle Jiangsu>North Jiangsu, however, in the most recent years, this pattern has changed to North Jiangsu>Middle Jiangsu>South Jiangsu. The proportion of pollution-intensive industry in South Jiangsu increased in early years but then decreased. In middle Jiangsu and North Jiangsu, it increased slowly in early years but recently accelerated. Second, before 2005, the concentration ratio of pollution-intensive in most cities along the Changjiang River increased, however, that of the cities of North Jiangsu decreased. After 2005, Jiangsu Province adopted a policy of accelerating the development of North Jiangsu, and many pollution-intensive industries were relocated from South Jiangsu to North Jiangsu. These pollution-intensive industries include Textile Industry, Paper Making and Paper Product, Oil Processing, Coking and Nuclear Fuel Processing, Raw Chemical Materials and Chemical Products, Chemical Fiber Manufacturing, Nonmetal Mineral Products and Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals. Spatially, the pollution-intensive industry demonstrated a pattern of decentralization, then centralization, and most recently returned to decentralization. Finally, Jiangsu Province undertakes the international pollution-intensive industries, while North Jiangsu is the "Pollution Haven" for pollution-intensive industries in South Jiangsu. Because North Jiangsu was at a preliminary industrialization stage, it became an undertaking area to attract foreign capital and to promote pollution-intensive industries. Technological innovation and the industrial structure policy are the other driving forces for the relocation of pollution-intensive industries from South Jiangsu to Middle Jiangsu, and then North Jiangsu. Government regulation affected the pollution-intensive industries as a primary mean of industrial relocation. In summary, industry upgrading, technological innovation, and improved government regulation which more focuses on environmental control, environmental monitoring, but other related measures are the primary means to optimize the spatial layout of pollution-intensive industries.

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    旅游地国内客源市场空间结构的高铁效应
    汪德根
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 797-805.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.797
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (648KB)

    高铁“时空压缩”效应对游客出游空间产生明显作用,进而影响到旅游地客源市场空间结构。以京沪高铁线的济南和泰山以及武广高铁线的武汉和衡山为例,从旅游地吸引空间范围、旅游地空间使用曲线、旅游地对客源地空间吸引力等3方面,实证研究高铁对旅游地国内客源市场空间结构影响。研究结果表明:① 高铁开通提高了旅游地的客源市场半径,辐射范围更广;② 高铁开通使近程客源市场份额明显下降,但750~1 000 km空间范围的客源市场增长明显,旅游地60%的客源市场空间范围有显著向外拓展的趋势;③ 高铁对旅游地客源市场吸引力提高具有显著促进作用,且距旅游地空间距离越大,客源市场空间吸引力变化越显著。


    Transportation infrastructure is an indispensable prerequisite for developing tourism resources and constructing resorts, every new breakthrough in traffic technology allows the tourists to travel at a faster speed to a remoter destination. High speed rail (HSR) is a significant symbol of the worldwide “transportation revolution”, producing the remarkable effect of “space compression”. The “space compression” effect of HSR plays a significant role on the tourists’ travel space, thereby affecting the spatial structure of tourist source markets. On the basis of the case, Jinan, Taishan on Beijing-Shanghai HSR, and Wuhan, Hengshan on Wuhan-Guangzhou High speed rail, this article proves the impacts on the spatial structure of domestic source market by HSR from the point of attraction of spatial extent, spatial use curves of resorts, and spatial attractiveness of destination to source region, and concludes the new regularities of the tourist behaviors and spatial distribution of tourists in the age of HSR, laying the “cornerstone” for further study on the HSR’s impacts on the spatial pattern of regional tourism. The results show that: 1) the attractiveness radius of Jinan, Taishan, Wuhan, and Hengshan’s tourist market has been extended after the open of HSR. Therefore the number of source markets which may make large impacts on destination has increased, in particular, the number of major source markets that more significantly impact on the destinations, and the market share by remarkable margin. 2) The share of short-range source market has decreased obviously, while the medium, specifically the distance between 750 and 1 000 km, and long-range source market share have increased to different degrees. The 60% spatial extent of tourist markets have shown a trend of a significant expansion. 3) The “space compression” effect of HSR has improved the growth of attractiveness to tourist market, and the more remote of the distance, the more remarkable of the changes. The variability of attractiveness values and tourist demand have shown a significant correlation relationship. The change rate of spatial attractiveness value of destinations to tourist source and the change of tourist market demand are remarkably correlative, i.e. the more change of attractiveness, the more change of tourist market demand. It can also be seen that the effect of space compression produced by HSR exerts a significant accelerating function in the improvement of the attractiveness of destinations to tourist source markets, correspondingly promoting the significant growth of tourist market demand.

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    交通发展对区域旅游空间结构的影响研究——以皖南旅游区为例
    杨仲元,卢松
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 806-814.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.806
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (631KB)

    基于交通优势度模型,选取2001年、2005年以及2009年等3个时间截点,运用交通优势度等分析方法研究皖南旅游区交通优势格局的空间变化特征,并在此基础上探讨交通改善对皖南旅游区空间结构的变化影响。结果发现皖南旅游区交通优势水平逐渐提高,交通发展重心逐渐向南转移,交通格局由“单极”逐渐向“双极”形态转变;在交通水平提升的基础上,旅游地空间格局逐渐优化,景区间通达时间逐渐缩短,客源市场结构也相应改变。


    In recent years, the tourism industry has developed nationwide at a rapid speed. Many cities gradually focused on the economic growth of tertiary industry, which is leaded primarily by the tourism industry, particularly in the wake of continuous traffic perfection. The bottlenecks of tourism development has got different penetrations in each place, the scope of spatial tourist activities has been enlarged, tourist cooperation among districts has been enhanced and the future prospect of tourism development will be broadened. Based on the Transportation superiority degree model, this article selects three time series for comparing, which are 2001, 2005 and 2009, and analyzes the spatial variation characteristics of regional transportation structure, then discusses the impact of transportation on the regional tourism spatial structure variation. Finally, the conclusions are summarized as following: on one hand, regional transportation superiority level have been improved gradually, transportation centers transfer to the south gradually, and the spatial structure transforms from "single pole" to "twin poles"; on the other hand, tourist destination structure has been gradually optimized on the basis of transportation improvements, in addition, traffic time among the scenic regions has been shortened gradually, and tourist market has been changed in response. All the conclusions are basically in accordance with the realities, which has a centain guiding signifcances to the future transportation planning and tourism development.

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    吉林省农产品加工产业集群布局和发展模式研究
    周涛,刘继生
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 815-823.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.815
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (421KB)

    综合分析吉林省农产品加工产业集群在9个地市州数量分布及产值分布情况,发现农产品加工产业集群在吉林省空间分布上存在不均衡现象:环长春区域的产业集群数量多且产值高,发展相对较好。比较分析吉林省农产品加工产业集群发展模式,发现目前吉林省农产品加工产业集群发展模式有多种类型,各类型各有其优势和劣势,提出集群组织形式上创新发展模式,即依据实际情况加强既代表公司企业利益的行业协会也代表农户利益的合作社在公司与农户之间的协调和组织作用,以求最大程度地规避市场带来的不确定因素,保证农户和公司双方的共同利益。


    Based on the introduction of survey and position of agricultural products industry cluster in Jilin Province, and the conversational analysis of both the distribution of agricultural products processing industry cluster and the sales income of agricultural products processing industry in eight cities and one prefecture, it is concluded that agricultural products processing industry clusters present an unbalanced distribution, and there is a preponderance of industry clusters in the area surrounding Changchun with high output value. Based on the introduction and contrast of developmental patterns of agricultural products industry cluster in Jilin Province, it is concluded that there are several developmental patterns of agricultural products processing industry clusters in Jilin Province, each of which has its own advantages and disadvantages. In summary, it is concluded that: 1) the formation of agricultural products processing industry cluster is mainly dependent on the advantaged natural resources in the region, the location of processing industries is determined by the origin of agricultural products, highlighting the characteristics of local resources; 2) agricultural products processing industry clusters present an unbalanced distribution, and there is a preponderance of industry clusters in the area surrounding Changchun with high output value, contrary to other areas, according to the conversational analysis of both the distribution of agricultural products processing industry cluster and the sales income of agricultural products processing industry in eight cities and one prefecture; 3) industry development history, the development foundation, geographical location, the system structure, economic development level, infrastructure and other factors need to be considered to seek realistic developmental patterns of clusters, in accordance with the contrast analysis of the developmental patterns of agricultural products processing industry cluster in Jilin Province now and before.

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    基于游客满意度的客家文化旅游开发研究
    俞万源,冯亚芬,梁锦梅
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 824-830.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.824
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (390KB)

    以客家文化旅游为研究对象,运用游客满意理论,测评客家文化旅游的游客满意度,发现客家文化旅游游客满意度的显著影响因子,探讨基于游客满意度的客家文化旅游开发策略。结果表明,客家文化旅游游客总体满意度没有达到满意水平,不同游客群体满意度存在一定的差异,存在满意度显著影响因子。提出客家文化旅游开发的形象策略、市场策略、产品策略、环境策略、管理策略以提升客家文化旅游的形象价值、产品价值、环境价值和服务价值。


    The Hakka culture tourism means using Hakka region's unique historical background and cultural and natural landscape to satisfy tourist cultural heritage and cultural experience tourism. Since the 21st century, the Hakka culture tourism is booming. But the Hakka culture tourism development needs theoretical guidance extremely. So it is an effective way to enhance the competitiveness of tourist attraction and tourist satisfaction measurement to understand and grasp the service needs of the tourism. In Hakka cultural tourism, as the research object, the theory of satisfaction is used to assess the evaluation of the tourist satisfaction. Studies show that: 1) The overall satisfaction degree of tourists is lower than satisfaction level. 2) There are some differences in the satisfaction between different tourist groups. 3) There are significant influence factors of satisfaction. Otherwise , the Hakka culture tourism has such problems as fuzzy image, narrow market, single product, lack characteristics, less service supervision and so on. Improving the visitors' understanding of Hakka culture, enriching Hakka culture tourism products, enhancing the cultural connotation of tourism products and optimizing the tourism environment are effective ways to enhance the satisfaction of Hakka culture tourism tourists. The article suggests: the Hakka culture tourism development should implement the image strategy, market strategy, product strategy, environment and management strategy to improve the image of the Hakka culture tourism value, the product value, environmental value and service value. Countermeasures include: 1) Strengthening the image theme, strengthening tourism promotion and image propagation, cultivating and promoting Hakka culture tourism brand image can enhance the value of Hakka culture tourism image.2) Developing non-Hakka tourist market, innovating mode of tourism marketing, widening the Hakka culture tourism marketing channels can expand the Hakka culture tourism market.3) Strengthening the characteristics and competitive products consciousness, enriching Hakka culture tourism products, improving the Hakka culture tourism product quality can improve the Hakka culture tourism products and service value.4) Strengthening the construction of infrastructure and ecological environment construction, enhancing the Hakka culture tourism environmental quality can enhance the Hakka culture tourism environment value.5) Strengthening the system construction, standardizing the trade management, establishing long-term mechanism to promote customer satisfaction can improve the Hakka culture tourism service value.

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    基于PSInSAR技术的现代黄河三角洲地面沉降监测与分析
    张金芝,黄海军,刘艳霞,刘勇,马立杰
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 831-836.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.831
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (936KB)

    地面沉降是现代黄河三角洲地区主要的地质灾害之一,利用PSInSAR技术对覆盖现代黄河三角洲部分地区的10景ERS1/2数据进行处理,获得该研究区的地面沉降范围、沉降速率和形变时间序列情况。选取3个地面沉降范围和速率相对较大的区域进行重点分析,同时将监测结果与相应时间段的居民区分布图和油田分布图进行叠加分析,结果表明,地面沉降与石油开采、地表载荷增加具有较强的相关性。利用水准观测数据对获得的监测结果进行精度验证,结果显示PSInSAR监测结果与水准观测数据吻合,中误差达到mm级。


    Currently, with the influence of long term exploitation of oil, gas, groundwater and brine resources, the increase of surface load and the compaction of recent sediments, ground subsidence has become one of the main geological hazards of the modern Yellow River Delta, China. Wetlands are broadly distributed , and most areas are covered by vegetation in this region, which make monitoring more difficultly. This article introduces monitoring of ground subsidence in the modern Yellow River Delta area using PSInSAR technique. To carry out experiment 10 ERS1/2 images during June 1992 and August 1995 were collected, and with Hooper’s PSInSAR algorithm model, more than 80 000 PS points were selected. 3.0 was chosen as the threshold of standard deviation to screen the PS points, and PS points were drop out which were affected by noise. PS points that in Dongying airport were chosen as reference points to correct the results, then the mean subsided velocity map and the deformation quantity in time series were derived.Ground subsidence phenomenon are widely distributed in the modern Yellow River Delta area.The mean subsided velocity is about 4.4 mm/a in most coastal area, mean subsided velocity of Shengli Oil Production Plant and its surrounding areas is 10.1mm/a. In the west city district of Dongying the value is 7.1 mm/a and in the east city district of Dongying the value is 7.4 mm/a. Subsided velocity map, the residential map and oilfield distribution map were overlapped to analyze the relationship between them. The results show that subsided velocity of the modern Yellow River Delta has high correlation with exploitation of oil, the increase of surface load and natural compaction of sediments.The accuracy of PSInSAR technique was verified by traditional Leveling data. Four leveling points were taken near PS points. Although the monitoring time interval and location of Leveling points was not in full accord match with PS points, the monitoring results gotten by PSInSAR technique was consistent with the leveling results. The subsided quantity curve of one leveling points which were 80 m distant from the nearest PS point and monitoring during the same time interval is very similar with the PS point’s subsided quantity curve, and the mean square error between them is 0.88 mm, so the mean square error gotten by PSInSAR technique was within the bounds of millimeter level. The results show that PSInSAR technique based on small data set can be used to monitor ground subsidence either the area is vegetation covered or wetland area, if only it have stable scatters.

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    干旱区稀疏植被覆盖条件下地表土壤水分微波遥感估算
    丁建丽,姚远
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 837-843.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.837
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (534KB)

    当前在干旱区土壤水分研究工作中,开展利用微波遥感技术高精度估算稀疏植被覆盖条件下地表粗糙度参数的研究是一项非常有意义的工作。基于微波遥感数据,结合土壤水分实测资料,以IEM模型为基础,分析雷达后向散射系数与土壤含水量、地表粗糙度参数之间的关系,利用最小二乘法和非线性回归的方法,建立光滑地表条件下的土壤含水量模型。结果表明:模型提取的土壤水分与实测值之间有很好的相关性,决定系数达到0.886,所建立的土壤水分信息提取模型在裸土以及稀疏植被覆盖地区能够得到较好的应用效果。


    Soil moisture information can be extracted by microwave remote sensing technology; however, the problem is how to eliminate the influence of ground surface roughness and vegetation coverage on the backscattering data. Ground surface roughness is the key factor determining the data accuracy in northwest China where the vegetation coverage is small. Thus, evaluating and modeling the surface roughness parameters with a high precision is an important task for the arid land soil moisture study. Using IEM model, the response relationships between the different types of backscattering coefficient and the radar systematic coefficient and soil surface parameters are simulated. Results show that the backscattering coefficient is different from these parameters’ change. Based on these achievements, the best radar parameters which can reflect the soil moisture are put forwarded. The corresponding relationships between the radar backscattering parameters and soil moisture contents, ground surface roughness parameters (such as, mean root height method, persistence length method and combined roughness method) are analyzed, and the experimental model which can reflect the soil moisture of relatively smooth ground surface is developed by using least squares method and non-linear regression method. At last, for a ground truth testing analysis, using the obtained RADAR-SAT2 data, the experimental model is applied in Weigan River and Kuch River delta oasis area. Results show that the data obtained from the experimental model has relatively high corresponding relationship with the soil moisture data collected in situ, and the determination coefficient is up to 0.886, implying the experimental model can be used in relatively wide scale for analyzing and modeling the soil moisture contents of some bare soil surface or the area whose vegetation density is low and vegetation coverage is small.

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    东北冬季气温年际、年代际影响因子的比较
    房一禾,周放,张运福,赵梓淇,沈秋宇,王乙舒,王春学
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 844-850.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.844
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (698KB)

    采用1961~2012年东北三省53站月平均气温资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料。分析东北冬季气温变化特征。利用SVD法得出影响东北冬季气温的主要因子。分别从年际和年代际尺度上,用偏相关法分析了各因子对东北冬季气温独立的影响。结果表明:东北冬季气温以全区一致异常为主,气温显著上升;东北冬季气温主要影响因子是北极涛动、西伯利亚高压和东亚冬季风;年际尺度上,北极涛动和东亚冬季风适合描述东北中、北部的冬季气温。西伯利亚高压与东北南部冬季气温关系密切;年代际尺度上,北极涛动适合描述东北冬季气温。


    Based on the monthly mean temperature data of 53 observational stations in the three provinces of northeast China in 1961-2012 and NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis data of 500 hPa geopotential height, 500 hPa wind velocity field, and sea level pressure filed, the variation characteristics of winter temperature in the northeast China at both interannual and interdecadal time scales were analyzed. By using the Singular Value Decomposition technology, we find three main influential factors of winter temperature in the northeast China. The independent effects of different influential factors on winter temperature in the northeast China were studied by using partial correlation analysis method at both interannual and interdecadal scales. Results show that: Both at inter-annual and interdecadal scales’ variations, the first mode’s spatial vector of EOF analysis on winter temperature in the northeast China show a consistent variation characteristic all over northeast China, and the first mode’s time coefficient exists a significant growing trend. In addition, the Singular Value Decomposition technology’s consequence show that, in the atmospheric shell, the Arctic Oscillation, the Siberian high and the East Asian winter monsoon have close relationship with the winter temperature in the northeast China. So they are the three main influential factors on winter temperature in the northeast China. Partial correlation analysis method’s result tell us that, at interannual scale’s variations, the Arctic Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon have close relationship with the winter temperature in the central part and northern part of northeast China. So the Arctic Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon may be more suitable for describing the winter temperature in central part and northern part of northeast China. The Siberian high may be more suitable for describing the winter temperature in southern part of northeast China. But at interdecadal scale’s variations, the relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and the winter temperature in the northeast China is not intimate. Similarly, the Siberian high is not suitable for describing the winter temperature in the northeast China. It is found that, only the Arctic Oscillation may be more suitable for describing the winter temperature in northeast China.

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    水库调节地区东江流域非一致性水文极值演变特征、成因及影响
    叶长青,陈晓宏,张家鸣,张丽娟,孔兰
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 851-858.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.851
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (632KB)

    选用8种概率分布函数,以极大似然法估计函数参数,采用AIC、BIC和AICc模型选择准则选出最优分布函数,系统分析变化环境下东江龙川和河源2站的极值流量特征,并对年最大流量变化规律及其影响做有益探讨。结果表明:降雨和水库蓄水工程是年最大流量显著下降的主要原因。龙川和河源站年最大流量LN2混尾分布拟合最好,变化环境后洪水频率最优分布线型基本保持一致,但流量变小造成分布参数改变已导致分布线型高水尾部特性变缓,相应设计流量偏小。用水文情势发生变化前估计的洪水重现期不能很好描述变化后洪水频率特征。


    No "stationarity" existed any longer in the environmental background for the formation of runoff series. Designed by the existing engineering hydrologic analysis method will face the risk of distortion in design frequency caused by the ever-changing environment. We analyzed the statistical properties of hydrologic extreme flow for hydrologic station of Longchuan and Heyuan in Dongjiang river using 8 probability distribution functions. Estimate of parameters was performed using the maximum likelihood technique. Goodness of fit was done based on AIC, BIC and AICc for the optimal linear frequency distribution before and after environment change. And the rules and effects of variability for hydrologic extreme flow was discussed. The research results indicate that the non-stationary annual maximum daily flow series of stations in Dongjiang Basin show a descend trend that caused by rainfall and construction of water conservancy projects. Mixed tail distribution (LN2) at Longchuan and Heyuan stations were found to be the best fitting model. The optimal linear frequency distribution maintain consistency before and after environment change, but the impacts on fitting curve of flood series showed an overall performance as upper tail from "steep" to "gentle". The Changing properties and impacts of parameters to distribution are analyzed by the 30-year moving average method. Flood frequency analyses for Dongjiang river show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 56-year record has ranged from a maximum discharge of 9 189 m3/s to a minimum of 2 305 m3/s at longchuan station; and has ranged from a maximum discharge of 11 125 m3/s to a minimum of 4 072 m3/s at Heyuan station. If the non-stationarity of series is not considered, the traditional method is still used for calculation. At the Longchuan and Heyuan Stations, the design flood magnitude will be overestimated. Compared with non-stationary flood series characteristics, the flood magnitude is smaller and the frequency is lower for the stationary "real" flood series characteristics caused by hydraulic engineering regulation and rainfall. After changes in the hydrological regime, the flood return period estimated before the change is often unable to well describe the flood frequency characteristics after environmental changes.

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    天山山区空中水汽含量及与气候因子的关系
    姚俊强,杨青,胡文峰,赵玲,刘志辉,韩雪云,赵丽,孟现勇
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 859-864.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.859
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (438KB)

    利用建立的天山山区水汽含量与地面水汽压的经验关系式,计算天山山区及周边44站1961~2009年的水汽含量值,分析水汽含量的时空分布及其与气候变化因子的关系。结果表明:天山北麓的河谷平原地带是水汽含量高值区,中天山和东天山是低值区。水汽含量在近50 a内呈增加趋势,夏、秋季增加明显。水汽含量是影响天山山区降水量的最主要的因素之一,水汽对全球变暖和气候变化可能有负反馈作用,而冬季 NAO和AO与水汽相关性最显著。这些研究对于揭示区域水分循环过程和全球变暖背景下的区域响应有重要意义。


    Relation formula was established between water vapor content and ground water vapor pressure, and the water vapor content of the Tianshan Mountains was calculated, the spatial and temporal distribution of the water vapor content characteristics and the relationship with the climate factors change was analyzed (i.e. temperature, precipitation, NAO/AO index). The following conclusion was drawn: the high value of the water vapor content area for Tianshan Mountains mainly distributed in the north Tianshan Plain region and the river valley in Turpan Basin, the water vapor content is in 12-20 mm. The east and middle area of Tianshan Mountains is a minimum part, the value is in 4-8 mm. In the past 50 years, the water vapor content in Tianshan Mountains exhibited an increasing trend with the rate of 0.26 mm per decade. However, the different seasons are different in the rates of water vapor content increase. Specifically, it increased most obviously in summer at a slope of 0.16 mm per decade and in autumn increased trend at a slope of 0.32 per decade. EOF decomposition of water vapor content showed the water vapor content distribution of has two types: consistency change in entire area under the background of regional climate change and the reverse change in north and south slope. It was showed that the regional climate change factors have impact on water vapor content. Specifically, precipitation in Tianshan Mountains was correlated significantly with water vapor content, especially atmospheric moisture and precipitation in summer, water vapor content is one of the factors that affect precipitation. The EOF decomposition of precipitation and water vapor content showed that the first two vector field of similarity high between the distribution of spatial and temporal distribution. Water vapor has negative feedback effect to regional temperature under the global change and climate change, through it is a major cause of greenhouse gas and also a cause of climate change in terms of global change. NAO or AO in winter has relevant relations with water vapor, and winter AO has the most significant correlation to summer water vapor. These works are important for discussing the regional water cycling process and regional response of climate change under the background of global change. The results lay scientific foundation for rational develop and utilize water vapor sources in Tianshan Mountains.

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    黄土高原植被对水热状况的响应研究
    李小燕
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 865-872.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.865
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1016KB)

    利用1999~2010年植被覆盖数据、气温与降水量数据,结合经验正交函数、时滞互相关法与奇异值分解法对黄土高原植被覆盖和水热状况进行研究。结果表明,水热组合状况主成分较多且时间变化规律性差,即水热综合状况比较复杂;植被覆盖特征明显。最大时滞相关反映出黄土高原南部小麦等作物对水热响应最快,其次为林木-温性植物-寒性、盐生、旱生植物-强旱生植物,滞后时间0~30 d。奇异值分解得出黄土高原绝大部分区域植被覆盖与水热变化一致,也存在明显负相关区。


    EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Functions), SVD (Singular Value Decomposition) and lag cross-correlation were applied to analyze temporal and spatial response characteristics of vegetation cover to the variation of hydro-thermal condition, and distinguish the spatial-temporal correlation between vegetation index and climate factors. The results indicated that the hydro-thermal conditions have more principal components and worse regularity as well as minor variance contributes. The variation of hydro-thermal condition depends on monsoon climate, latitude, underlaying surface and so on, which is very complicated and changeable. But there are obvious characters in vegetation cover. The maximum based on lag cross-correlation method shows that the speed of wheat response of southern Loess Plateau to hydro-thermal condition is faster than forest, warm vegetation, cold-halophytic-drought plants and strong drought plants, and the lag-time is about 0-30 days, so more precipitation have stronger impact on vegetation growth than temperature. However, the minimum coefficient reflects that there is significant negative correlation between vegetation cover and double-cropping winter wheat and minor cereals in South Loess Plateau. Singular value decomposition illustrates that vegetation cover is in accordance with hydro-thermal condition in the same area, but there is still obvious negative correlation. Negative correlation is caused by crop-cutting and soil corrosion due to crop rotation system and climate type. It is the best condition for vegetation cover in southeast region of Loess Plateau. More precipitation will be the advantage for vegetation cover, including the hydrological effect of the Yellow River, but when the temperature is higher than one threshold value it won’t be an advantage for vegetation cover in arid and semi-arid region. Higher temperature makes plants grow well where there is sufficient moisture in arid region. The vegetation cover has close relations to hydro-thermal condition in valley plain and basin valley. When there is this additional condition, the vegetation cover increases in hydro-thermal equilibrium region. There is a high level of correlation between vegetation cover and hydro-thermal condition, but more limiting factors. The main limiting factors of temperature on the vegetation cover include land use, vegetation type, cropping system and landform. Loess Plateau is located in droughty inland region, so precipitation directly influences vegetation cover. Plant growth depends importantly on precipitation in desert zone and non-farming areas. In crop field, the correlation between vegetation and precipitation is further complicated by irrigation conditions and so on.

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    资源丰裕程度与经济发展关系的探讨——资源诅咒效应国内研究综述
    黄悦,刘继生,张野
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 873-877.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.873
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (364KB)

    从资源诅咒的存在性实证检验,资源诅咒的传导机制以及如何解决资源诅咒现象3个方面对国内文献进行总结。结果表明,国内目前对资源诅咒的研究成果尚未形成系统,并且相关研究主要集中在经济学领域,因此,资源诅咒现象依然有待各位学者,尤其是地理学者从区域的角度不断进行探索。


    Traditional opinion considers that natural resource always contributes to economy development. However, resource curse theory poses that natural resource usually obstructs economy increase; on the contrary, those districts in short of natural resource develop quickly. Since Auty put forward the "Resource Curse" theory, the paradox relationship between resource endowment and economic growth has always been one of hot issues concerned by researchers with different backgrounds. In recent years, domestic researchers have begun to pay attention to the resource curse phenomenon in China. This article is a summarization to the domestic research from 3 aspects: first, the empirical analysis about the existence of resource curse in China; second, the transmission mechanism of resource curse including 2 aspects of single mechanism and composite mechanism; third, the resolution of resource curse. What′s more, this article summarizes the characteristic of the research by Chinese researchers, points out that the research on resource curse in China is still not systematized and there are still some problem need to discuss: the data standard is not unified and the research on transmission mechanism needs to go deeper. On one hand, fixed assets and income of extractive industries are both connected to the GDP and will influence the accuracy of the result, on the other hand, methods chosen to analyze conduction mechanism are not suitable for domestic research. At last, the article figures out that those geographers have unique advantage on the research of resource curse phenomenon. Researchers can switch resource curse proposition to a human geography proposition by analyzing from man-land standpoint and consider economical and non-economical influence of resource. Researchers, especially geographers should devote to studying and researching it from a regional perspective and put forward some practical and effective measures to resolve the resource curse phenomenon in China.

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    雪数据集研究综述
    于灵雪,张树文,卜坤,杨久春,颜凤芹,常丽萍
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 878-883.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.878
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (378KB)

    大范围的雪盖变化是气候变化的指示剂,雪通过其自身的物理性质调节着地气之间的物质与能量循环,还能影响地表径流,调节水文循环,甚至在全球生态系统中发挥着重要的作用,因此建立数据集,实时监测雪盖的变化就变得非常必要。通过阅读大量文献,总结目前应用较为广泛的数据集,主要包括可见光/近红外数据集如NOAA数据集、MODIS数据集,微波数据集如SMMR数据集、AMSR-E数据集,以及多数据源的数据集。分析各种数据集的生成原理和优缺点,对目前雪数据集研究中可能存在的问题进行总结。


    The climate change is indicated by wide changes of snow cover. Through its distinctive physical properties, snow plays an important role in the global ecological system not only by regulating the material and energy cycle between land and atmosphere, but also by influencing surface runoff and the hydrologic cycle. After researching and comparing a lot of literatures, we summarized the frequently used data sets. The NOAA data sets which have the longest time series in visible/near infrared data sets are widely applied in monitoring snow cover over the continents and providing the input to the climate and hydrological numerical simulations. With better spatial resolution(1km or better), MODIS data sets which have great potential in the snow extraction can derive the snow cover through NDSI, a normalized index between band 4 and band 6. Microwave data sets are able to penetrate clouds and to detect the information about snow depth and snow water equivalent easily. Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data sets are the earliest microwave products for snow monitoring, while the coarse spatial resolution of which limits their application. AMSR-E data sets improve the resolution (25 km) and are proven to be in good agreement with the measured values. To solve the problems existing in the single-source data sets, many researchers combine the advantages of different data sources and develop new algorithms to improve the accuracy and quality of the data sets. The synthesized data sets include the integrated datasets from model and observational data, the integration between observed data and remote sensing sensor, the combination between sensors and multi-source data sets. Among the above mentioned data sets, the combination between sensors, such as the combination between the MODIS and the AMSR-E, can enlarge the advantages (good spatial resolution of MODIS and anti-interference of AMSR-E) and overcome the shortcomings (MODIS is easily affected by cloud cover while AMSR-E has bad spatial resolution). After analyzing the theoretical underpinnings, the characteristics of key products, advantages and disadvantages of various data sets, this article concluded some problems existing in the snow datasets research and discussed the current and future directions in their application and development.

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    内蒙古东部牧区极端降雪变化特征及其成因
    李喜仓,王冀,杨晶
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 884-889.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.884
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (811KB)

    利用内蒙古牧区34个地面气象站1961~2010年冬季降雪资料和NCEP再分析资料,采用趋势分析、合成分析等方法探讨内蒙古牧区极端降雪时空变化特征和形成机制,得出如下结论:内蒙古牧区极端降雪量呈自西向东逐渐增多趋势,近20 a变化表明内蒙古东部牧区极端降雪量呈显著增加趋势。500 hPa高度场上呈“(乌拉尔山高压)+(贝加尔湖低槽)-(白令海阻高)+”分布型时,冷空气易传输并堆积至内蒙古东北部牧区,有利于极端降雪发生。内蒙古东部牧区极端降雪发生时的主要水汽来源于北冰洋地区。Rossby波动持续东传有利于乌拉尔山高压、贝加尔湖低压和白令海高压的形成和维持。


    Spatial-temporal characteristics and the formation mechanisms of extreme heavy snow over Inner Mongolia parish were analyzed using techniques of trend analysis and composite analysis, as well as data including NCEP reanalysis data and station snow data in winter over the parish. It was indicated that snowfall over the Inner Mongolia parish appeared to get increased from the west to the east during the past 20 years, with the big value area of snowfall in the mid- east area of Inner Mongolia. During the years of extreme heavy snow in the east parish, there was negative anomaly center in 500hPa height field near Baikal Lake. Code air can be transported to the northeast parish of Inner Mongolia and accumulated when there is a “Ural High(+)-Baikal Trough(-)-Bering Sea Blocking(+)” pattern in 500 hPa height field, which favors the extreme heavy snow. The Arctic areas turned out to be the major moisture sources of heavy snow over east parish of Inner Mongolia. Land-sea thermal difference resulting from Positive SST anomaly of the North Atlantic Ocean becomes Wave-Activity Flux and moves eastward, forming convergence of Wave-Activity Flux and thus leading to the persistence of high press range. Also, the persistence of eastward transmission of Rossby waves was conducive for the formation and persistence of the Ural High, Baikal Trough and Bering Sea Blocking, and the favorable distribution of extreme heavy snow over Euro-Asian Continent.

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    玉龙雪山现代季风温冰川对气候变化的响应
    杜建括,辛惠娟,何元庆,牛贺文,蒲焘,曹伟宏,张涛
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (7): 890-896.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.07.890
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (529KB)

    以玉龙雪山冰川区为研究区,基于野外观测数据及遥感数据,分析玉龙雪山现代季风温冰川的响应过程,探讨冰川变化的主要原因。结果表明:玉龙雪山地区冰川持续退缩明显;近年来白水1号冰川冰裂隙数量增多,规模扩大,冰川退缩速度不断加快;冰川冰体温度升高,从而导致冰川消融加快;2004和2009年在玉龙雪山东坡发生的崩塌事件,是冰川消融加剧,冰体温度上升的直接反应;气候变暖是玉龙雪山冰川退缩的主要原因。


    Sensitive responding to climate change is the most remarkable feature of monsoon temperate glaciers, as the most direct and brightest indicator of climate change it would substantially go forward or backward by a weak change of temperature. This article selects Yulong Mountain as research region, which is the southernmost temperate glacier region at present in China and Eurasian continent. Based on field observation data and remote sensing data, combining previous research results, the response process of Yulong Mountain to climatic change is emphatically analyzed. Additionally, this article especially studies the area, shape, temperature, width, and terminus etc variation of Baishui No.1 glacier, and discusses the main causes of glacial changes. The result was as follows: 1) Glaciers retreat was continuous and obvious in Yulong Mountain. Compared with 19 glaciers with total area of 11.6 km2 in 1957, 6 glaciers had disappeared completely, and only 13 glaciers exist at present, with a total area of 5.30 km2 in 2001 and 4.42 km2 in 2009. The changing rate of glacier area was -1.19% in 1957-2009, which was much faster than that of other typical glacier region in China. 2) Compared with 1982, the quantity of the Baishui No.1glacier crevasses increased and their scales also extend in the context of global climate change, the body of glacier had ruptured on the firn basin. A series of massive crevasses had formed on the glacier surface since 2011. Meanwhile, the ice river/lake had appeared since 2008, glacial ablation was much intense. 3) The glacier terminus elevation displayed rising state overall in 1982-2011, and the rising amplitude had increased since 1999. The retreat speed of Baishui No.1 glacier was 8.8 m/a in 1982-2011, and increased to 13.8 m/a in 1999-2011. 4) The lowest temperature from glacier surface to 8 m depth at the ablation area was -0.8℃ in 1982, and rising to -0.39℃ in 2009. Rising glacier temperature caused melt speed of the ice accelerate and mass balance loss intensifying. 5) The accelerating glacier ablation and rising temperature result in ice body freezing capacity and the stability of periglacial rock mass decreasing obviously, which ultimately leads to the ice/rock collapse happening in the appropriate circumstances, and it is the right examples that two collapse events happened in Yanggongjiang No.5 glacier in March, 2004 and October, 2009. 6) The temperature and precipitation generally showed an increasing trend in 1951-2011 in Lijiang, improving temperature tendency is 0.14℃/10 a, precipitation tendency was 9.0 mm/10 a. But the increasing amount of precipitation cannot counteract mass wastage caused by rising temperature. The glacier retreat of Yulong Mountain mainly ascribed to climate warming.

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