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CN 22-1124/P
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  • 地理科学
      2011年, 第31卷, 第1期 刊出日期:2011-01-20 上一期    下一期
    选择: 合并摘要 显示图片
    论文
    城市化与经济发展水平关系的三种模型及其动力学分析
    陈彦光
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 1-6.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.1
    摘要   PDF (780KB)
    目前已知有2种函数可以用作描述城市化水平与经济发展水平关系的数学模型,即对数函数、幂指数函数。基于Logistic函数发展了第三种模型。这3种函数分别刻画单对数关系、双对数关系和分对数关系。3种数学模型各有不同的建模条件和适用范围,反映的动力学特征也不一样。第一种模型背后的动态演化控制变量是人均产值,第二种模型隐含的控制变量是城市化水平与人均产值的比值,第三种模型暗示的控制变量是城市化水平。第一和第二两种模型反映的变化是先快后慢,第三种模型反映的变化则是两头慢中间快。在实际应用中,可以通过一个区域表现的模型结构揭示系统演化的动力学机制,借助模型参数的变化规律判断系统的演化方向。
    Three functions can be employed to model the relations between the level of urbanization and that of economic development. The first is a logarithmic function, the second is the power function, and the third is the logistic function. The logistic model of the relationships between urbanization and economic development levels is equivalent in mathematics to the exponential model of the relationships between urban-rural ratio (URR) and per capita products such as GDP and GNP. The exponential model is a logit model since URR is defined as the ratio of the urban to the rural population. The logarithmic model suggests that economic variables are control variables of urbanization associated with economic development, the logistic model indicates urban variables are control variables of evolution of regional systems, and the power-law model implies that the ratio of urban variables to economic variables control the system development.The basic dynamical equations of the three models are derived, and the results showed physical properties of the three kinds of systems. The similarities and differences between the different kinds of dynamics are revealed by drawing a comparison between the three models. Among these models, the logistic function presented in this work is applied to the 31 administrative areas of China including provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government. The examples based on the data from 2000 to 2008 illustrated how to estimate the parameters of the models for the aims of scientific explanation and prediction. In practice, the models can be used to judge whether or not urbanization keeps in step with economic development in a region.
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    清代顺、康、雍、乾时期文字狱的地域分异研究
    朱竑, 安宁
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 7-14.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.7
    摘要   PDF (1662KB)
    文化和思想的专制统治在中国乃至世界历史上都是一种常见的专制统治手段。文字狱作为其典型产物,具有重大的学术研究价值。研究选取具有代表意义的清代顺治、康熙、雍正、乾隆时期(1644~1795年)发生的文字狱作为分析样本,力图从区域差异的角度进行探讨。研究发现区域人文、经济、政治等因素对文字狱的地域分异影响具有决定性作用,人文环境决定了文人群体必然直接影响到文字狱的分布,而经济环境则通过影响教育水平和社会环境从而间接影响了文字狱的分布,政治事件、统治者性格、统治方式、政治地位等政治因素对文字狱的地域分异的影响则充满了偶然性。随着时间的推移文字狱分布呈现出由"离散型"分布向集中度较高的"背弓型"分布演变的规律,这是人文、经济、政治等历史地理要素对文字狱地域分异综合影响的反映。研究弥补了历史学、社会学等其它学科研究方法的局限性,试图从地理学的视角探索中国古代文化专制的规律,不仅具有历史文化地理方面填补空白的价值,同时对现今自由文化之发展也具有警示意义。
    Despotic government on culture and ideological matters was shared among all types of dictatorships around the world. As one typical product of this philosophy of governance, Literary Inquisition deserves special attention within cultural geography scholarship. This research tries to approach the issue of Literary Inquisition from the perspective of regional differentiation, with solid empirical evidence from Shun-Kang-Yong-Qian period of the Qing Dynasty. The research finds that regional cultural backgrounds, local economic conditions and politics were the key determinants that gave rise to the regional differentiation of Literary Inquisition cases, specifically, these determinants included the concentration of literati, educational status of population, social environment, political events, personalities of the governors, ways of governing and political status. Generally, this study tried to cast light on the cultural autocratic governing in ancient China from the geographic perspective which was largely ignored by historians and sociologists. It is an valuable endeavor for its attempt in contributing to a deepened understanding of the issue of Literal Inquisition, and it also provides an enlightening lesson for the construction of a liberal cultural realm at present time.
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    企业迁移的动因识别——基于内容分析法的研究
    杨菊萍, 贾生华
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 15-21.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.15
    摘要   PDF (901KB)
    通过对2000~2009年中国重要报纸全文数据库中涉及的116次企业迁移的相关报道的内容分析,着重识别了促使中国企业迁移的各种动因以及不同动因的相对重要性。结果表明,首先,政策动因、经济动因、战略动因和情感动因是中国企业迁移的四大类动因,涉及环境管理、业务调整等15个具体动因;其次,四大类动因中政策动因显得更为重要,其次是战略动因和经济动因,情感动因的重要性十分有限;再次,不同动因对迁移年份、迁移主体和迁移范围不同的企业而言的重要性存在显著差异,具体来说,近年来政策动因的重要性逐渐增强且超越了战略与经济动因,同时政策动因还是企业整体迁移和区域内迁移的最重要动因,而对部分迁移和跨区域迁移而言最重要的则是经济动因。
    Based on Content Analysis of 116 firm relocations which are reported in China Core Newspapers Full-text Database between 2000 and 2009, the reasons for firm relocation in China and the importance for each of them were analyzed. Some results were founded. First, there were four types of reasons for firm relocation, executive, economic, strategic and sentimental motivations, which included 15 specific driving forces, such as environment regulatory and business adjustment etc.. Second, executive motivation showed to be the most important one among these reasons, and then were strategic and economic ones, and sentimental motivation was the least important one. Third, the difference of importance among reasons for relocation of different years, different subjects and different scopes were significant. Specifically, the importance of executive motivation was more and more increasing in resent years and superior to strategic and economic ones. At the same time, the most important reason for firm integral relocation and relocation within one region was executive motivation, and the most important one for partial relocation and relocation between different regions was economic ones.
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    城市社区生活空间结构之解构及其质量重构
    王立, 王兴中
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 22-28.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.22
    摘要   PDF (1172KB)
    以人本主义地理学的行为研究方法为指导,从提高城市社区居民生活空间质量的角度入手,运用城市社会地理学城市社会生活空间质量观的理念解构了城市社区生活空间的架构要素及其社区生活空间的人本缺失问题。指出了城市社区生活空间体系结构的基本涵义、特征与构成要素。从空间体系角度分析,城市社区生活空间构成要素为城市资源、社区(空间-区位-社会)类型、社区资源;从社区社会空间体系角度来讲,社会公平、空间公正、文化平等、价值尊重为其构成因素。衡量城市社区生活空间结构的效益为其生活空间质量,因此,解决城市社区生活空间失衡的重点在于提高城市社区生活空间质量水平及结构效益,并在此基础上,提出了城市社区生活空间质量重构机制及路径。
    With the rapid development of cities and urbanization, the spatial structure of community life was short of the humanistic demands on different social strata in the city, what’s more, it became more and more conflicts and inequality. There were several points concerning the negative phenomena. First,in the process of social transformation, most cities had emerged Voice Missing in grass root and Centrifuge of the political-living space; Second,the differentiation of social class systems and sub-cultural groups, the discrimination and loss of living place,have become irresistible trend of history in city development. Third,in the academic study of urban space gradually turned to the field of urban social life, especially, the research on the justice structure of urban living space as well as humanistic demands on the various classes in city. For this phenomenon, the paper presented the framework of living space in urban communities from a new perspective. On that basis, the basic elements of overall architecture of the city was that it followed by city resources, community systems, community resources from the perspective of space systems and its components included social justice, space justice, cultural equality, respect for the value from point of the community of social space system. Therefore, that can be concluded that the quality of the living space in urban communities closely related to the two series of six factors , they are urban resources, community resources, community systems and social equity, spatial justice, respect for the value of different classes in city. The path on reconstruction of quality of urban community living space must be given sufficient attention to these factors.
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    休息日与工作日居民购物时空间决策因素及差异比较
    马静, 柴彦威
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 29-35.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.29
    摘要   PDF (1017KB)
    居民购物时空间决策及其影响机制的研究往往将时间与空间分裂开来单独进行考虑,忽略时间与空间自身的内在联系。利用2007年北京市居民活动日志调查获取的第一手数据,通过构建影响居民购物时空间决策的9个选项,利用多项Logit模型,探讨北京市居民购物行为的时空间决策因素,并对休息日与工作日之间的差异进行比较。结果表明,休息日居民购物时空间决策属于单因素主导影响模式,购物持续时间的影响最为显著;工作日居民购物时空间决策属于多因素综合影响模式,是否多目的购物和巡回次数的影响显著提升。说明工作日由于受到工作等生存性活动的影响,购物等非生存性活动的时空间选择受到较大制约。
    Since the 1980s, more researches have been carried out to study the spatio-temporal choices of individuals' shopping behavior, which is one of the most important topics in behavioural geography. However, these researches only considered shopping spatial choice or temporal choice separately, while ignoring their relationship or interaction. This paper puts forword a research framework which studies the shopping spatial choice and temporal choice at the same time. First of all, according to the shopping distance it defines spatial choice as three options, such as near, middle or far. Similarly, according to the shopping time it also defines temporal choice as three options, like morning, afternoon or evening. Then, multiplying the spatial choice and temporal choice it will get nine spatio-temporal options of individuals' shopping behavior. Based on an activity-travel daily survey conducted in Beijing in 2007, this paper takes multinomial logit model to analyze the influencing factors of spatio-temporal choice of individuals'shopping behavior, while it also explores their differences between weekday and weekend. The model results show that, first,the shopping spatio-temporal choice on weekend is dominantly influenced by very few factors significantly. That is to say, among some factors which influence shopping spatio-temporal choice significantly, the shopping duration is the most dominated factor. And with the increase of shopping duration, the probability of shopping in a shorter distance decreases. On the contrary, the probability that residents go shopping far away from their home increases.The main reason may be that on weekend residents are free of work to some extent, thus, they can select the shopping time and destination more freely. Besides, they tend to go shopping in a long distance and in the daytime. Second,the shopping spatio-temporal choice on weeday, however, can be concluded to a more complicated pattern. On weekday, many factors influence shopping spatio-temporal choice significantly, which indicate that individuals' shopping behavior is restricted a lot. And shopping spatio-temporal choices are apparently different between various groups and neighborhoods. In addition, with the comparison of that on weekend, it can be found that the influence of shopping duration is not that significant on weekday, on the contrary, the influences of shopping purpose and tour numbers become very significant. It is mainly because that on weekday people are constrained by some survival activities, such as work or study. Therefore, people can not choose shopping time and destination as freely as on weekend, and they tend to go shopping in a short distance and in a short time.
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    中国工业经济转型过程中能源消费与碳排放时空特征研究
    王强, 伍世代, 李婷婷
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 36-41.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.36
    摘要   PDF (1137KB)
    就近30 a来中国工业经济转型过程中能源消费与碳排放的关联变化进行了分析,结果表明,工业部门能源消费的持续增长是中国能源消费总量增长与碳排放量增长的主要驱动因子;工业碳排放总量增长快速,但工业碳排放密集度持续降低;工业部门中制造业碳排放量最大,平均约占工业部门碳排放总量的60%,降低传统制造业能源消费、提高能源利用效率是推动节能减排政策实施和地方行动响应的关键环节;地区工业能源高消费地区集中分布于中国环渤海地区,能源较高消费地区主要集中于中国中部地区和东部经济发达地区,能源中等消费地区主要集中于中国西部地区,而能源低消费地区集中于西部经济落后地区;中国区域工业碳排放总量除受到本地工业能源消费量的直接影响外,还受到各地能源消费结构的影响,值得注意的是,较高碳排放地区空间布局趋于"孤岛"分布格局,低碳排放地区的数量也逐渐增加。
    The correlation changes between energy consumption and carbon emissions in the process of Chinese industrial economy transformation within the recent thirty years were analyzed in the paper. The results indicate that the growth of energy consumption and the rapid growth of carbon emissions have been affected predominantly by the energy consumption in industry production. In contrast with fast growth of industrial carbon emission, the carbon intensity has declined steadily. Among all the industrial sectors, the manufacturing has been the largest emitter of carbon emissions, which makes up 60% of the total emissions. Thus, reducing the traditional manufacturing's energy consumption and improving energy efficiency are the key links in the process of promoting the implementation of energy conservation and pollution reduction policy and the response of local government. The regions of high energy consumption are concentrated in the provinces around Bohai area; the regions of relatively high energy consumption are mainly located in central and eastern provinces of China; the regions of moderate energy consumption are largely centered in western provinces; the regions of low energy consumption are located in undeveloped provinces. The industrial carbon emission is affected not only by the regional industry consumption directly, but also by the energy consumption structure to some extent. Special attention should be paid to the fact that the areas of relatively high carbon emissions gradually formed "island" distribution pattern and the number of areas with low carbon emissions is going up.
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    中国互联网用户增长的省际差异及其收敛性分析
    汪明峰, 邱娟
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 42-48.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.42
    摘要   PDF (1270KB)
    进入21世纪以来,中国的互联网事业得到了飞速发展;但同时互联网发展的区域差异仍表现得十分明显。采用σ-收敛、β-收敛和俱乐部收敛3种分析方法,对1997~2008年期间中国(港澳台地区除外)互联网用户增长的收敛性进行了探析,并对影响互联网普及率的关键因素进行了条件β-收敛的检验。结果发现,中国互联网用户增长的省际差异变动存在着较为明显的σ-收敛和β-收敛。控制人均GDP、城镇化水平、基础设施水平、受教育程度、对外开放度、地理位置等变量后,地区间存在条件β-收敛。东、中、西三大区域存在着较为显著的俱乐部收敛趋势,收敛速度则表现为东部慢于中部,中部慢于西部。
    Since the late 1990s, Internet has maintained a dramatic growth in China. However, it is noticeable that disparities among regions in regard to Internet development are very distinguishing. This paper conducts research to explore from 1997 to 2008, how the process in regard to the growth convergence of Internet users among China's provincial areas ( Hong Kong, Maucao and Taiwan excluding) transformed, that is based on three measures, i.e., sigma convergence, beta convergence and club convergence. Moreover, the research adopts conditional beta convergence to examine the key factors which might have the influence on the utility of Internet among regions. The study suggests that during this period, distinct sigma and beta convergence exist in the growth of Internet users among China's provincial areas. By properly introducing an array of control variables, such as per capita GDP and the level of development in aspects of urbanization, infrastructure, education, openness, and geographical location, It's find out that the growth is less rapid in areas where the Internet has broadly been adopt, if in other less developing areas, vice versa. The result as well shows such growth can be categorized as conditional beta convergence. Furthermore, there is clear evidence of club convergence among the three regions of China. Each region demonstrates their capability to stable the convergence internally with the different speed. The growth in eastern regions is the least rapid while in western regions, the growth is the fastest.
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    20世纪90年代中国城际铁路流省界效应研究——以旅客和集装箱为例
    张良, 戴特奇
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 49-54.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.49
    摘要   PDF (728KB)
    行政单元对经济活动的边界效应是经济地理学科一直关注的问题,它直接反应了行政主体对经济空间格局的影响。以中国227个城市节点的铁路交通流数据为基础,分析了中国25个省级行政单元的边界对交通联系的影响,发现上世纪90年代中国铁路客货流空间的集中化与分散化力量并存。进一步考察了空间相互作用变化背后可能的驱动因子。在中心城市吸引力扩张的影响下,铁路客流空间发生明显的重组,边界效应普遍削弱;而技术进步和地方政府的竞争使得集装箱货流空间的变化则比较复杂,甚至有约一半省份的边界效应增强了。最后分析了省界效应变化趋势并提出了对区域与城市规划和政策制定的一些建议。
    Administrative border effect is always an interesting topic for economic geography for its importance in economic space shaping. This paper deals with the border effect of 25 provinces of China by using rail traffic flows data between 227 cities from 1991 to 2000. The analysis on transport links reveals that the process of agglomeration and diffusion co-existed in 1990s, and the driven factors of such process are discussed under the context of globalization and China’s urbanization. As the hub cities expanded their effect beyond administrative borders, the space of passenger flows appeared a significant reconstruction and the border effect was weaken obviously during this process. However, the technical progress and competition between different local governments made the space of container flows more complicate, 11 provinces showed an opposite trend of stronger border effect. At last, this paper discussed the future trend of border effect and gave some policy implication according to our analysis.
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    北极航线地缘政治格局的人工鱼群模糊聚类分析
    李振福, 闵德权
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 55-60.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.55
    摘要   PDF (801KB)
    全球变暖导致的北极冰层消退,使北极航线的全线通航预期逐渐缩短,以北极为对象的资源争夺和地缘政治争斗将成为地缘政治研究的新的重要课题。由于北极的地理特殊性和航线权益在北极争夺中的重要性,对于北极地缘政治的研究应更多从北极航线的视角出发。北极航线地缘政治格局的研究有助于中国对于未来的北极及北极航线应得权益的取得。在提出北极航线地缘政治格局概念和研究重要性的基础上,使用人工鱼群聚类方法对北极航线地缘政治格局进行了分析。结果表明,北极航线地缘政治格局聚类为3个类别,分别为以美国为主的27个国家组成的国家集团、以俄罗斯为主的19个国家组成的国家集团和包含英国等其他国家的47个国家组成的国家集团。仿真实验表明,人工鱼群模糊聚类分析对于北极航线地缘政治格局分析是有效的,分析结果能够为中国的北极航线地缘政治战略制定提供借鉴。
    For the melting of Northern Sea ice layer caused by the global warming, the anticipation of the navigation on the whole line of the Arctic Route draws near gradually, and the scrambling for the resource and the struggle about the geopolitical which target on the arctic will become a new important issue for the study of the geopolitics. For the specialist of the arctic geography and the importance of rights and interests of the route in scrambling of the arctic, the study of the arctic geopolitics should be start from the perspective of the arctic route, and the study of the geopolitical framework of Arctic Route would be helpful for the government to scramble for the deserved rights and interests of arctic and arctic route in the future. Based on putting forward the idea of geopolitical framework of Arctic Route and the importance of the research on it, using the method of artificial fish-swarm algorithm ,the framework of Arctic Route was analyzed. And the result indicates that there are 3 classes for the arctic route geopolitics, they are the national group which is formed by 27 nations and the main country is the USA, the national group which is formed by 19 nations and the main country is Russia, and the national group which is formed by other 47 nations includes UK. The simulation experience indicates that the method of artificial fish-warm algorithm is available for the analysis of geopolitical framework of Arctic Route and the result would provide references for the country to make the strategy on the arctic route geopolitics.
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    高速公路对城市群结构演变的影响研究——以山东半岛城市群为例
    王成新, 王格芳, 刘瑞超, 王明苹, 李新华, 姚士谋
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 61-67.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.61
    摘要   PDF (1018KB)
    交通是区域发展的动脉,也是城市群形成演变的基本前提。在中国高速公路从线到网的发展进程中,对城市群空间结构演化产生着日益深刻而长远的影响。以山东半岛城市群为例,定性与定量相结合,从城市群体系结构、空间结构和职能结构3个层面剖析了高速公路对城市群的影响。高速公路促使城市群体系结构不断演化,它促使形成了城市空间扩张的新模式——合并重组;高速公路推动城市群空间布局的合理化,由于有效缩短了各城市间的时间距离,城市群内的相互影响更为深刻;城市流强度大大增强,城市之间的空间引力增大,由此产生的袭夺效应不仅导致了城市之间控制边界的不断变化,而且提升了城市群的空间紧凑度。高速公路同时成为城市群职能结构转化的快速通道,在大城市产业更替、腾笼换业的过程中,依托高速公路这条快速通道,产业资本的选择余地更大、范围更广,各城市间的资金流、物质流、人流联系日益加强,山东半岛城市群逐步融合为一个有机的系统整体。
    Transportation is just like the artery for regional development, it is also the basic fundation for the development of agglomeration. As the modern transportation, highway network in China generates an increasingly profound and long-term effect to the evolution of spatial structure of urban agglomeration. Taking urban agglomeration of Shandong Peninsula as an example, combining of qualitative and quantitative analysis, the impact of highway on urban agglomeration is strudied, including the urban agglomeration architecture, spatial structure and functions of the structure. Highway promotes the evolution of urban agglomeration system structure, and leads to the formation of a new model of urban spatial expansion named the merger and reorganization. By reducing the time distance among various cities, highway also promotes the rationalization of space layout in urban agglomerations which makes the mutual influence in urban agglomeration more profound. Because the intensity of the urban flow is greatly strengthened and the gravitation among cities increases, the space deprive effect aroused by that makes the constant change of the control border among the cities. Lastly, highway is becoming the important factor for the change of functional structure of urban cluster. In period of industrialization, the flow of fund, people and material is becoming increasingly strengthened by the quick channel of highway, and then urban agglomeration of Shandong Peninsula is gradually integrated into an organic system as a whole.
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    城镇化、市民化与城乡收入差距关系的实证研究——基于山东省时间序列数据及面板数据的实证分析
    吴先华
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 68-73.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.68
    摘要   PDF (788KB)
    在区分城镇化与市民化的基础上,通过构建时间序列和面板数据模型,运用格兰杰因果检验、时序序列数据多元回归、面板数据多元回归等多种方法,对城镇化、市民化与城乡收入差距之间的内在关系进行了多重检验。结果显示,城镇化在长期水平上通过影响市民化来缩小城乡收入差距,而在短期水平上则与城乡收入差距呈正向关系,即目前的城镇化发展模式不仅没有缩小城乡收入,相反是在扩大城乡差距,这一结果打破了现有城镇化与城乡收入差距关系的固有认识。而市民化则与城乡收入差距呈长期稳定的负向关系,是缩小城乡收入差距,促进城乡统筹发展的重要途径。因此,应积极转变城镇化的发展模式,将市民化作为统筹城乡发展的根本途径。
    Based on the distinguishment between the connotations of urbanization and citizenization, the article analyzed the relationship among urbanization, citizenization and urban-rural income inequality. Both the time series data and the panel data of Shandong Provience were used to set up models for the analysis. The results of the Granger causality test show that urbanization and urban-rural income inequality interacts as both Granger cause and effect, and the relationship between citizenization and urban-rural income inequality is similar. The regression analysis results based on the time series data show that urbanization and citizenization can reduce the gap between urban and rural incomes, but industrialization and the government finance investment can contribute to the increase the gap. More importantly, the last two contributing factors of the urban and rural income inequality are stronger than the first both factors. However, the analysis based on the panel data shows that there is a positive relationship between urbanization and urban-rural income inequality in the short term. In other words, urbanization can increase the gap between urban and rural incomes in short period. Nevertheless, citizenization can contribute to reduce the gap between urban and rural incomes. The analysis results give a new interpretation of urbanization and urban-rural income inequality. Therefore, an adventurous hypothesis is set forth that urbanization prompts citizenization, which will lead to reducing urban-rural income inequality in the long run. Two interpretations are provided that the hypothesis is logical. First, it’s possible that the urbanization may widen the gap between urban and rural income in statistical perspective, because the strict conditions of the household system make the rural wealthy much easier to become urbanized and counted as urban population than the rural poor. Second, the current urbanization mode in China contributes to widen the urban-rural income inequality, that is, the peasants move to cities seeking for jobs, bust they do not have all the rights that a usual city citizen have due to the household registering system and related institutions. As a result, the peasants in the rural could not achieve economies of scale on the limited arable land. In spite of the peasants moved to the cities could obtain higher income in cities than in the rural, more surplus value that they produced are occupied and shared by the urban people and the foreign investors. Because there is negative relationship between citizenization and urban-rural income inequality, to promote the citizenization of the rural people who live and work in cities will be an appropriate way for reducing the gap between urban-rural incomes and urban and rural overall planning development. At the same time, changing the irrational urbanization development mode needs to be taken into consideration.
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    中国入境旅游者购物消费的省际差异及影响因素——基于面板数据模型的分析
    代姗姗, 唐周媛, 徐红罡
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 74-80.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.74
    摘要   PDF (1136KB)
    采用面板数据模型,对1999~2008年的中国各省区(港澳台除外)经济发展水平、旅游业发展水平、资源丰度、群体参照、口岸等因素对入境游客购物消费的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明,入境游客购物消费水平主要受以旅游住宿业的发达程度为代表的区域内经济及旅游发展水平和上年接待入境游客人数为代表的群体参照的影响,而口岸资源丰度对入境旅游者购物消费水平的影响呈现出两极化态势,资源丰度与入境游客购物消费之间存在空间错位。
    Shopping is a very important factor determining the multiplier effects of the tourism sector. A panel data model is selected to measure the impact of influencing factors on inbound tourists' shopping expenditure in each province of China based on data from 1999 to 2008 (Hongkong, Macau, Taiwan excluding). The influencing factors include economic development level, tourism accommodation development level, resource endowment, word of mouth and the location as border province. The result shows that the primary determinant factors are tourism accommodation development level and word of mouth. The tourism accommodation development level is more important than that of word of mouth. Meanwhile, other two factors' inter-provincial differentiations are discussed. Firstly,the location as border provinces has significant influence. Inbound tourists' shopping expenditure is highly dependent on the characteristics of their adjacent countries, since tourists from their adjacent countries account for a larger portion of their inbound tourists. Secondly, tourism resources do not always a determinant factor to enhance shopping expenditures. Policies are also suggested. The tourism shopping industry can not be developed separately from the regional economic and tourism development context. Due to the significance of the word of mouth, established reputation and appealing image should be maintained and managed to enhance the tourists shopping expenditures. The spatial dislocation of tourism resource indicates that a tourism destination with diversified attractions is more appealing to tourists than the one with homogeneous attractions. For border provinces, to make strategies corresponding to the characteristics of their adjacent countries is an efficient measure.
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    基于核密度估计的广佛都市区路网演变分析
    刘锐, 胡伟平, 王红亮, 吴驰, 何劲
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 81-86.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.81
    摘要   PDF (1303KB)
    根据1957年与1982年2个时期的地形图并结合1995年与2008年的遥感卫星影像提取路网专题信息,利用ArcGIS建立广佛都市区路网数据库。采用GIS空间分析中的核密度估计方法并结合各个方位道路密度,分析广佛都市区的路网时空演变。分析表明,近50 a来广佛都市区的路网发展总体是以广州市的越秀区和佛山市的禅城区双核为中心不断向外蔓延,次一级核相继出现并不断扩大发展的过程。空间上,路网的演变也呈现出一定的方向特性,正北,西南和正西方向一直是路网密度较高的地区,但路网发展最快的是西南和正东方向。路网密度内部差异逐年递减, 路网系统发育不断成熟。
    Based on 1:50000 topographic maps of 1957 and 1983, and remote sensing images acquired in 1995 and 2008, the normalized thematic data of road network were extracted. These road network data were stored in database which was built up in ArcGIS. Using kernel density estimation and the road density,the road network spatial-temporal evolution was measured and discussed in the paper. The results show that in the past five decades, the road network development in Guangzhou-Foshan metropolitan area was dramatic, which can be characterized as an evolving pattern from single-core in 1957 to dual-core, and to poly-core in current time, while the road network density core area grew larger and larger. The road density has been in monotonic increasing, while it has a significant spatial balance growth status. From the spatial perspective, the density of road network in the north, southwest, and west dimensions of the study area is higher.
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    吉林省近300年来聚落格局演变
    曾早早, 方修琦, 叶瑜
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 87-94.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.87
    摘要   PDF (1588KB)
    聚落格局演变过程研究对探讨过去土地利用变化中人类与环境之间的关系有着重要的作用。以吉林省为研究区域,利用地名志资料建立吉林省聚落地名数据库,复原了吉林省近300 a来聚落格局的演变历程。结果表明,近300 a以来吉林省的聚落增长在时间上可识别出4个阶段,分别为缓慢增长(1644~1735年)、增长加速(1736~1820年)、高速增长(1821~1949年)和增长放缓(1950~1990年)阶段,在空间上中部平原和丘陵台地地区在各时期都为聚落密度最大的区域,并且呈现出从中部的平原和丘陵台地向西部的平原和东部的山地扩散的过程。影响聚落格局演变的主要因素可能与吉林省的自然地理条件、移民、驻防、以及政府所施行的政策等等相关。
    As one of land use types, settlements, whose growth in new cultivated area can reflect the processes of migration, land cultivation and landscape change driven by human activities, and can be a useful source for studying the relationship between human and environment in the past. Based on the toponymy records, the settlement database of Jilin Province has been established, and temporal and spatial changes of settlements in Jilin Province over the past 300 years have been reconstructed in the paper. The results show that the increase of number of settlements occurred in the past 300 years can be recognized into four phases which were slow growth (1644-1735), accelerated growth (1736-1820), high-speed-growth (1821-1949) and slowdown-growth (1950-1990). The expansion of settlements had a process from central plains and tablelands to the western plains and eastern mountains, and the counties which had largest settlement density in every period had located in the central plains and tablelands. Growth of the settlements may be influenced by natural environmental condition, mitigation, garrison, land policy and some other political behaviors made by the government.
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    长春市区新建住宅价格的空间格局分析
    刘颖, 张平宇, 李静
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 95-101.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.95
    摘要   PDF (1097KB)
    利用GIS技术对长春市住宅价格空间格局进行了研究,发现长春市住宅价格空间格局整体呈现单中心圈层分布,在长春市动植物公园与南湖广场附近分别出现了2个价格极核;住宅价格次高区域位于城市中心,包含了南湖与伊通河部分段;住宅价格变化幅度区域差异明显,东北—西南方向价格降低速度快,东南—西北方向价格降低慢,并且在城市西部和南部出现了局部高价格区域。在此基础上,分析了长春市住宅价格空间格局的驱动因素,发现住宅价格空间格局主要受到居住环境优势、城市发展战略、交通条件、用地布局及购买主体收入水平等几个方面因素的影响。结合研究结果,对长春市房地产开发格局优化提出了几点建议。未来长春市住宅开发的重点区域将集中在南部、西部和东北部。南部和长东北地区适宜进行中高端生态社区的开发,西部新城应以普通住宅与生态社区开发相结合,铁北地区应以低端住宅建设为主。
    Changchun has experienced many changes in housing price compared with other provincial capital cities in China. This paper examined the spatial pattern of housing price and its driving factors in Changchun City by the aid of spatial interpolation method and GIS technology. The results showed that the general spatial pattern of housing price in Changchun shows a series of circle layers with two cores in the centre. One core is located near Changchun Zoological and Botanical Garden and the other is located near the South Lake Square. The second-level circle layer of housing price covers the central areas of the city, including the area near South Lake and parts of the Yitong River. The spatial change rates of housing price in different directions are much different. Housing price declines much faster in the northeast-southwest direction than that in the southeast-northwest direction. Two regional housing price centers are found in the western and southern parts of the city. Several factors influenced the spatial pattern of Changchun City, such as residential environment, urban development strategy, public transportation services, land use and the income level of the main consumers. According to the development strategy of Changchun, the southern, western and northeast parts of the city will experience a rapid development in the near future, which will make the real estate market flourish. Based on the research, several advices are given to optimize the spatial structure of real estate development in Changchun City. The southern area of the city has better infrastructure conditions, thus high level of ecological community is suggested. In the northeastern part, it is much suitable to develop large areas of ecological community by the side of the North Lake Wetland Park; in the western and northern area, a combination of low and middle level housing should be developed after the large areas of slum clearance.
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    环渤海地区县域人均粮食占有量空间格局演化
    刘玉, 刘彦随, 郭丽英
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 102-109.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.102
    摘要   PDF (1347KB)
    应用GIS技术和空间自相关分析方法,分析了1990年以来环渤海地区县域人均粮食占有量的空间演化特征。结果表明,研究区县域人均粮食占有量空间自相关特征明显,高-高聚集和低-低聚集趋势增强;人均粮食增长更多表现出空间分布的随机性,地理集中趋势不明显;县域人均粮食占有量以上升为主,增长类型以总产低、快速增长型为主,粮食生产重心逐步向平原区集中,辽中和鲁西地区的粮食生产功能日益凸显,生态脆弱区和快速城镇化区的人均粮食占有量明显下降。最后,通过空间计量经济模型SLM和SEM的回归分析,探讨了县域人均粮食占有量格局演化的主要驱动力。
    The area along Bohai Rim, including Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Hebei and Shandong, is one of the important grain production bases that guarantee food security in China. With the acceleration of area urbanization in the past 20 years, the grain production and consumption patterns along Bohai Rim have brought about significant changes. Agricultural statistics of the area along Bohai Rim at county-resolution level for the time period of 1990-2008 is collected and the GIS technique as well as other tools such as the Moran's I and the Getis-Ord are introduced to describe the spatial changes of per capita grain possession at county level in this area. The conclusions are as the follows. First, per capita grain possession at county level in the area along Bohai Rim shows a significantly trend of positive spatial correlation and similar areas cluster in space. LISA cluster map demonstrates that counties with higher per capita grain possession gathered in Liaohe plain, the Yellow River floodplain in western Shandong Province and alluvial plain of Haihe river, while the lower per capita grain possession gathered in mountainous-hilly areas, tableland areas and densely populated city area. Second,the spatial framework of per capita grain possession growth is likely to be more stochastic and unstable in the aspect of spatial distribution. Hotspot areas are changing frequently without obvious appearance of geographical concentration. Third, Per capita grain possession in most of the counties shows an upward trend, and lower production but faster growth is the main type. The grain production function has been improved significantly in plains and has been weakened as the implementation of Conversion of Cropland to Forest and Grassland Project in mountainous-hilly areas, and it has been shown a strong downward trend in cities and their surrounding counties as the sharp reduction of cultivated land and the swift growth of regional population. At last, the contributing factors for the variation of per capita grain possession are studied using Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model. The empirical results show that the spatial structure of per capita grain possession is affected positively by the per capita grain possession in 1990, per capita cultivated land, multiple cropping indexes, cropping structure and input of agricultural machine power, while affected negatively by the quantity of agriculture labors and per capita GDP in 2007. The driving force of the evolvement of per capita grain possession framework can be identified through the following aspects: the basis of historical development, the policies on regional development and economic factors. Effective regulation and favorable policies can promote per capita grain possession and guarantee regional grain safety.
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    基于RS和GIS的内蒙古多伦县土地利用变化对生态服务价值的影响
    吴海珍, 阿如旱, 郭田保, 孙紫英
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 110-116.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.110
    摘要   PDF (872KB)
    采用内蒙古多伦县1987年、1995年、2000年和2005年的TM影像,运用GIS方法提取了各年的多伦县土地利用动态变化数据。采用中国陆地生态系统的服务价值测算方法对多伦县土地利用数据进行分析处理,测算了多伦县土地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值变化。结果表明,1987~2005年间多伦县土地利用变化十分剧烈,耕地、林地、城镇用地、水域面积呈增加趋势,草地、未利用地面积呈减少趋势。土地利用类型主要由未利用地和草地向林地、耕地变更,并且草地和未利用地面积持续减少,林地和城镇用地面积呈持续增加趋势;多伦县生态系统服务价值1987~1995年间呈下降趋势,而1995~2005年间呈增加趋势,其生态系统服务价值处于可持续发展状态;耕地、林地和草地生态系统服务价值占多伦县总生态系统服务价值的比例较大,耕地、林地和水域的生态系统服务价值均呈增加趋势,而草地和未利用地生态系统服务价值呈减少趋势;各土地利用类型生态系统服务价值敏感性指数都小于1,表明多伦县生态系统服务价值对服务价值指数缺乏弹性,研究结果可信。
    Based on TM image data in 1987,1995,2000 and 2005 of Duolun County,Inner Mongolia, supported by RS and GIS technology, land use change of Duolun County in each year were extracted. The land use data was studied by using the evaluation method of China terrestrial ecosystem services value, and the change of ecosystem services value caused by the land use change of Duolun County was estimated. The results showed that the area of cultivated land, woodland, urban land use, water area had an increasing tendency while grassland, unused area decreased during 1987 to 2005. The land use types mainly shifted to woodlands, and cultivated land from unused land and grassland. The ecosystem services value of Duolun County had an increasing tendency in a state of sustainable development,it had a decreasing tendency during 1987 to 1995 and increased during 1987 to 1995. Cultivated land, woodland and grassland took the major part of the total ecosystem services value, the change of ecosystem services value of cultivated land, woodland and water area had a tendency of increasing while grassland and unused land declined. The ecosystem services value sensitivity index of each land use type is less than 1, indicates that the ecosystem services value of Duolun County lacks flexibility on its service value index.
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    大庆市建成区土壤重金属潜在生态危害和健康风险评价
    汤洁, 陈初雨, 李海毅, 张天琴, 肖瑞
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 117-122.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.117
    摘要   PDF (1400KB)
    根据大庆市城市功能区划,以表层土壤为研究对象,通过308个样品的采集、测定、分析,采用Hakanson潜在生态风险危害指数法评价土壤重金属元素的潜在生态危害程度。结果表明,表层土壤重金属污染程度较低,潜在生态危害风险较小,汞(Hg)和镉(Cd)是主要的潜在生态危害元素。汞的生态危害风险相对较大,有11.9%的样品处于较重及以上风险级别,镉的生态危害级别虽然较低,但中等危害级别分布范围较广。分别用致癌风险和非致癌风险模型进行了土壤重金属镉和汞对人体健康的风险评价,两种元素的风险指数均处于安全值范围内,不会对当地居民的健康构成风险。
    Based on urban function zone divisions, 308 surface samples were collected from the urban soils of Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province, China, and determined in laboratory. The potential ecological hazard of heavy metals in the surface soils were assessed by using Hakanson’s potential risk index. The results show that the degrees of heavy metals pollution were lower in the surface soils of the study area, with lower potential ecological risk. As for the main hazard elements, Hg has higher ecological risk, of which 11.9% samples are above the heavy risk level; Cd has lower ecological risk, however, samples with middle risk level are widely distributed. In addition, the assessment results of human health risk show that the cancer and non-cancer hazard indexes of Cd and Hg are both below the threshold values, indicating that the effects of Cd and Hg pollution on human health are light in the urban area of Daqing City.
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    基于格网GIS的关中地区生态安全研究
    薛亮, 任志远
    地理科学. 2011, 31 (1): 123-128.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.123
    摘要   PDF (1001KB)
    选择城市化进程不断加快的陕西关中地区为研究区,依据"压力-状态-响应"模型建立了格网化区域生态安全评价体系,在格网GIS技术的支持下,对评价体系中各指标进行1 km×1 km尺度下的网格化表达,运用基于栅格数据的空间叠加方法实现生态安全模型评价,得到格网化关中地区1990年、2000年和2007年生态安全指数空间数据,在此基础上结合关中地区实际,定性与定量相结合地确定了生态安全评价等级划分阈值。对计算结果进行分析,总结出1990~2007年间关中地区生态安全特点有三,一是总体呈现出生态安全状况逐渐转好态势,但仍处于不安全状态;二是区域内生态安全变化存在明显差异;三是不同年份生态安全影响因素有所差别。研究结果表明,格网GIS用于研究生态安全能更好地反映其内部差异,优于传统研究方法。
    For recent years, there were still some deficiencies in the ecological security research. For example, the spatial scales were not quite reasonably selected and the thresholds of ecological security ranks were determined with the lack of practical significance. And all these maybe decrease the credibility of research results. Therefore, for the current lacks of ecological security research, choosing the Guanzhong region with accelerating the urbanization process as study area which is located in Shaanxi Province, this paper built up the regional ecological security evaluation system on the basis of "pressure-status-response" model and gridding methods. In support of the gridding GIS technology, this paper gave each index in the evaluation system the spatial expression of 1 km?1 km grid scale. Subsequently, using the spatial overlaying technology based on grid data, this paper achieved the modeling evaluation of ecological security and acquired the gridding spatial data of every ecological security indexes for Guanzhong region in the year of 1990, 2000 and 2007. With the software of GIS, the paper carried out the spatial overlay analysis based on raster data and acquired the gridding data of ecological security of Guanzhong region. Combined with the reality of Guanzhong region, and referred to the current situation and circumstances of national forest parks and nature reserves, the paper tried to determine the threshold used to classify the ranks of ecological security by means of qualitative and quantitative methods. The results show that there are three features of ecological security of Guanzhong region. First , the ecological security of Guanzhong region is overall becoming better and better, but it is still unsafe; Second, the ecological security changes have the significant differences within the region. Third, there are different factors of affecting ecological security in different years.
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