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  • 地理科学
      2012年, 第32卷, 第3期 刊出日期:2012-03-20 上一期    下一期
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    中国城市群形成发育的政策影响过程与实施效果评价
    方创琳
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 257-264.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.257
    摘要   PDF (422KB)

    中国城市群是中国未来经济发展格局中最具活力和潜力的核心地区,城市群的真正形成与发育始于20世纪80年代的改革开放初期,历经80年代的发育萌芽阶段、90年代快速成长阶段和21世纪前10 a的持续发展阶段,共三大阶段。城市群形成发育带有强烈的政府主导性,主要是国家及地方宏观调控政策和区域发展政策发挥作用的结果,体现在国家宏观调控政策的导向性和重点区域发展政策的倾向性两大方面。具体表现为,“六五”计划提出地区域协作和经济区政策开启了中国城市群建设的序幕,“七五”计划提出地三级经济区网络政策搭建了中国城市群建设的初步框架“八五”计划提出地横向联合与城乡统筹政策注入了中国城市群建设的一体化内容“九五”计划提出地区域协调发展政策推动了中国中西部地区城市群的形成发育“十五”计划实施地城镇化战略指明了中国城市群建设的基本方向“十一五”规划首次把城市群作为推进城镇化的主体空间形态,奠定了中国城市群建设的空间格局。与此同时,针对处在不同地区、不同类型和不同发育程度的城市群,国家相继因地制宜地实施了无数项差异化扶持政策,这些政策有力地推动着中国城市群朝着健康稳定的方向持续发展。


    Urban agglomerations are the most dynamic and potential core areas for the future economic development of China. As the key and optimal development zones of major function oriented zoning in China, urban agglomerations play the roles of strategic support points, growth poles and core nodes in national productivity layout. To begin with, the formation and development of Chinese urban agglomerations indeed dates back to the initial stage of China′s reform and opening-up in the 1980s. It has gone through three stages, namely the embryonic development stage in the 1980s, the rapid growth stage in the 1990s and the sustained development stage in the 2010s. Moreover, there are distinct government-led characteristics for the formation and development of Chinese urban agglomerations, mainly resulted from national and local macro-regulation policies and regional development policies. They involve in both the guidance of national macro-regulation policies and the propensity of key regions′ development policies. Specifically, the related supportive policies and their implementation impact on the formation and development of Chinese urban agglomerations from the 6th Five-Year Plan to the 11th Five-Year Plan can be concluded as follows. Firstly, the policy about regional cooperation and economic zone in the 6th Five-Year Plan is to be the start the construction of Chinese urban agglomerations. Secondly, the policy about three levels of economic zone network in the 7th Five-Year Plan builds the preliminary framework for the construction of Chinese urban agglomerations. Thirdly, the policy about horizontal alliance and balancing urban and rural development in the 8th Five-Year Plan puts forward the integration outlook to the construction of Chinese urban agglomerations. Fourthly, the policy to promote balanced development among regions in the 9th Five-Year Plan drives the formation and development of urban agglomerations in the central and western regions of China. Fifthly, the urbanization strategy in the 10th Five-Year Plan points out the overall direction for the construction of Chinese urban agglomerations. Finally, the policy, which first time emphasizes urban agglomerations to be a primary pattern to accelerate urbanization in the 11th Five-Year Plan, establishes the spatial layout for the construction of Chinese urban agglomerations. In addition, in view of the urban agglomerations in different regions, different spatial patterns and different development degree, national government successively implements at least 22 supported policies with the principle of adaptation to local conditions. The policies actively guide Chinese urban agglomerations to ensure their sound and steady development.

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    中国气溶胶分布的地理学和气候学特征
    郑小波,罗宇翔,赵天良,陈娟,康为民
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 265-272.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.265
    摘要   HTML   PDF (878KB)

    中国人口地理分界线——胡焕庸线根据人口、地理,气候和经济等特点把中国(不包括港、澳、台地区)分为东、西两部分。用2000~2010年MODIS大气气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)资料,分析气溶胶分布的地理学和气候学特征后发现,胡焕庸线还可被视为中国气溶胶地理学的分界线,在其两侧气溶胶的性质和浓度都有明显差别。在人口稠密和海拔较低的东部,由人类活动产生的气溶胶为主,年平均AOD约为0.45;在西部,自然过程释放的气溶胶主导的AOD约为0.25。近10 a来东部AOD的年际间变化呈现增加趋势,西部AOD出现微弱减少的趋势。东部人为气溶胶年际间变化受亚洲季风影响。西部自然气溶胶年际间变化主要受沙漠地区沙尘气溶胶排放源的影响,沙尘天气过程主要控制其气溶胶的释放。


    The demarcation line of China’s population geography, the Aihui-Tengchong Line or the internationally known “Hu Line” divides China into the east and west parts, based on differences in China's population, geography, climate and economy, all of which are closely associated with the aerosols over China. By using the aerosol optical depth (AOD) data of MODIS during 2000 to 2010, the geographical and climatological distributions of aerosols over China are presented, and the ‘Hu Line” is found also to describe a geographic division of aerosols over China. On the east of “Hu Line” with high population densities in the low-elevation China, the monthly AOD varies from the peak (>0.5) during March and June to the low of around 0.3 in November and December with an annual mean of about 0.45, mostly contributed by anthropogenic aerosols from the human activities. On the west of “Hu Line” with a sparse population in the high elevation regions, the AOD is dominated by the naturally emitted aerosols with an annual mean of 0.25 changing between the high (about 3.0) in the period of April to July and the low (<0.2) from October to January. The positive and negative trends in annual AOD in 2000-2010 are respectively found in the regions on the east and west of “Hu Line”. Asian monsoon has a notable impact on the interannual variability of aerosols over the east region by modulating the atmospheric transport and precipitation washout. Taking example of the AOD anomalies in July 2002 and 2003 for a weak and strong year of south Asian summer monsoon, compared to the 10-year mean value, the AOD values in a weak summer monsoon year (2002) were (0.3-0.6) higher and (0.2-0.4) lower respectively in south and north of Huaihe River. In a strong summer monsoon year (2003), the opposite AOD pattern to the weak summer monsoon year 2002 was distributed over the east region with negative (positive) AOD anomalies in south (north) of Huaihe River. The interannual aerosol variations in the west of “Hu Line” are strongly influenced by dust emission sources in the deserts. The dust weather processes control the natural dust emissions. The maximal AOD of 3.0 in the west China could be brought by the frequent dust storm events from April to July.

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    20世纪末中国迁移人口空间分布格局 ——基于城市的视角
    王国霞,秦志琴,程丽琳
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 273-281.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.273
    摘要   HTML   PDF (1076KB)

    基于人口普查资料,对20世纪末中国迁移人口在不同行政级别、不同规模城市的分布格局进行分析,并运用探索性空间数据分析技术进一步对地级及以上城市迁移人口的空间分布特征进行研究。结果表明:地级及以上城市在迁移人口流动中占主要地位,其中百万规模级别以上城市在人口迁移中地位尤为显著;县级市间迁移人口规模差异显著,东部地区县级市平均迁移规模要大于西部和中部;省际迁移中城市空间分布大体呈现3个梯状层次;省内迁移中城市空间分布总体表现出极大的相似性,均以各省会城市作为省内迁移人口的第一流入地;不论是省内迁移还是省际迁移,东部沿海地区的珠三角和长三角地区城市群都是迁移人口的高度集聚地。


    China is being at the stage of rapid urbanization. Based on the fifth census data, this paper analyzes the migration structure of China in different administrative and scale cities in the 1990s. The result shows that it is the prefecture cities that plays important role in the Chinese population migration in the 1990s, in which the big cities, especially the mega-cities, take a more significant position. It is also found that there are differences in the migration scale between county-level cities. The average migration scale of county-level city in East China is more than in West and Middle China. For the prefecture and above level cities is more important in the process of China′s urbanization at present and in the future, this article further examines the patial distribution pattern of inner-provincial and inter-provincial migration. It is showed that there are three ladder-like levels for prefecture cities in the spatial distribution pattern of inter-provincial migration: the first level includes the Zhujiang River Delta agglomeration, Changjiang River Delta city group, west bank cities, Beijing-Tianjin-Henan city agglomeration, the core cities of Liaodong Peninsula and a few of provincial capitals in middle-west area. The second level includes most of provincial capitals in middle-west area: Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration and other eastern cities which are close to Beijing-Tianjin-Henan area, Changjiang River and Zhujiang River. The third level includes other provincial cities of middle west area and other cities which are far away from the core cities of three metropolises in the eastern area. Besides, the circle structure is obvious in the southeast coastal area, while the peak structure is more evident in the mid-west area. With regard to the spatial distribution pattern of inner-provincial migration, it shows that there are great similarities among prefecture-level in population spatial distribution pattern. The first gathering cities are each provincial capital cities. The ESDA technology is used to study the spatial distribution features of migration in cities in China. The result shows strong concentration for spatial distribution. The Zhujiang River Delta agglomeration, Changjiang River Delta city group are the main gather cities in both of inner and inter provincial migration. Furthermore, the migration gathering city range in Zhujiang River Delta area is larger than the Changjiang River Delta. On the contrary, the cities with small migration scales are located in agricultural provinces such as Anhui, Henan, and Sichuan, etc .

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    城市群研究述评与展望
    李仙德,宁越敏
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 282-288.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.282
    摘要   PDF (406KB)

    自从法国地理学家戈特曼提出大都市带(Megalopolis)的概念之后,城市群作为一种特殊形态的城市体系,成为城市地理学的核心研究内容。国外学者相继提出半城市化区域、全球城市—区域、多中心巨型城市—区域等概念,其研究都建立在都市区基础之上,强调城市之间以及城乡之间密切的功能联系。中国学者提出了都市连绵区、城市群等概念,并开展了大量研究工作。都市连绵区的界定立足于都市区基础之上,亦与国际上相关的研究接轨。但城市群在国内更为流行,且被写进国家五年发展规划纲要之中。城市群作为中国区域发展空间战略的重心,发挥着区域经济增长极的作用。国内城市群研究却存在着概念含糊、界定模糊等问题。城市群是都市区之间强烈的相互作用形成的,相关研究必须建立在都市区基础之上,才能避免概念以及空间尺度的混淆。中国官方并未有都市区的界定方案。结合第六次人口普查数据,加强对都市区和城市群界定的研究,立足于都市连绵区基础之上,开展跨学科研究,深入分析不同空间尺度城市群集聚与扩散模式,建立起中国城市群研究范式。


    After Gottmann introduced the concept of Megalopolis in 1957, the urban agglomeration, as a special form of the urban system, has been the core content of urban geography. Since the reform and opening up, China's urban spatial organization has presented a new trend. Urban agglomerations are emerging as engines of Chinese economy. The State Council of China has also issued a series of important plans to take the urban agglomerations as national and regional growth poles and main form of urbanization. This article reviews the most important domestic and foreign literature on important concepts including 'Megalopolis', 'Desakota Region', 'Global City-Region', 'Polycentric Mega City-Region', 'Metropolitan Interlocking Region' and 'Urban Agglomeration'. Gottmann argued that megalopolis was the hub and incubator of national development. He pointed out there were six megalopolises around the world. Mcgee, based on the actual development of Asia, put forward different spatial pattern namely dasakota. Scott et al. paid attention to the effect of globalization and localization on city and regional development. They argued that global city-regions were the most important actors of the world. Hall et al. integrated research method of economic geography and urban geography to study the polycentric mega city-region. This study was innovative and enlightening. Zhou Yixing argued that the research on metropolitan interlocking region must be based on definition of metropolitan area. Yao Shimou introduced the concept of urban agglomeration systematicly. It is also the most popular spatial concept in China. Chinese scholars have done a lot of work on urban agglomerations, while the concept of urban agglomeration is not clearly defined. Because of confusion on definition, spatial scale of urban agglomeration is uncertain. So it is hard to establish the research paradigm of urban agglomeration in China. Regional and national planning on urban agglomeration is also impacted by this fuzzy concept. It is also necessary for State Council to launch work on definite metropolitan area and urban agglomeration in order to guideline regional and national economic development more effectively. We should follow scientific tradition of the project on Chinese Metropolitan Interlocking Regions, and use the latest sixth census data to clearly define urban agglomeration based on metropolitan area so as to strengthen urban agglomeration research in China. It is also reqired to integrate research method of economic geography and urban geography and carry out an interdisciplinary research. It is also important to study aggregation and diffusion laws of urban agglomeration from different spatial scale, establishing the research paradigm.

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    氢氧稳定同位素技术在生态系统水分耗散中的应用研究进展
    张玉翠,孙宏勇,沈彦俊,齐永青
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 289-293.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.289
    摘要   PDF (419KB)

    氢氧稳定同位素作为水的“DNA”,对于研究水分的传输和转化具有重要的意义,而水分耗散是水循环的重要组成部分。简单介绍氢氧稳定同位素在水分耗散研究中应用的主要原理和比较新的一些技术方法,主要对其在森林、草原生态系统和农田生态系统中蒸散发分离,植物水分来源区分、叶片水同位素富集和水分利用效率等方面做较为详细的归纳总结和探讨,最后指出国内此类研究仍然存在的问题和可能的发展方向,以期对未来氢氧稳定同位素技术在水分循环和水分耗散方面的应用研究有借鉴作用。


    Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen play an important role in the research on water transport and exchange. The composition of deuterium (D or 2H) and oxygen 18 (18O) in water is very stable, which would not change with time unless fractionation happens. Therefore, they are good fingerprint of water movement. The fractional process of stable isotope is the key for tracing water cycling and transfer. Fractionation leads to the heavy isotopes enrichment of water evaporation vapor. And isotope composition of plant transpiration vapor is similar to the soil water absorbed by the roots except some halophilous plants. Measurement technologies for the isotope composition are mass-spectrometric method and laser method. Water depletion structure was partitioned by the combination of isotopic method and other method like the eddy covariance system. The plant transpiration accounted for about 6%-90% in different ecosystems or for different growth periods. Isotope compositions of different water sources were compared for the judgment of main root uptake layers. The application of hydrogen, oxygen and carbon isotopes in the leaf water-carbon coupling research revealed that 18O was enriched because of the photosynthesis and transpiration. As the composition of carbon dioxide and water, isotope compositions of 18O, 2H and 13C in leaves could also be used to show the change of water use efficiency which was calculated by the carbon accumulation and water depletion. There still existed some problems in the application of this technique like the upscaling and impact factors analysis while some possible improvements were discussed.

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    辽宁沿海经济带工业环境效率分析
    佟连军,宋亚楠,韩瑞玲,李名升
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 294-300.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.294
    摘要   HTML   PDF (499KB)

    环境效率是生态效率的重要组成部分。基于环境效率对于指导区域经济与环境协调发展的重要意义,以重工业基地辽宁沿海经济带为例作环境效率研究,应用数据包络分析(DEA)和随机前沿分析(SFA)测算辽宁沿海经济带2001~2009年工业环境效率和产出弹性。在此基础上利用Tobit模型构建多元线性回归,分析工业环境效率的关键影响因素。结果表明:2001~2009年辽宁沿海经济带工业环境效率有大幅提高,但与理想状况仍有一定差距。其中大连的工业经济增长主要依靠劳动力推动,对环境成本的依赖正在减小,丹东、营口和葫芦岛3市的工业增长需要牺牲更多的环境成本。重工业化、资本密集化和高新技术化不利于工业环境效率提高,经济发展水平的提高则极大地促进了工业环境效率的提高。所有制结构、生产规模、外商投资和环境管理力度等因素因其作用的两面性,对工业环境效率无有效影响。


    Environmental efficiency is an essential element of eco-efficiency because of its important role in the evaluation of the level of regional green development. Taking the heavy industrial base in Northeast China, Liaoning coastal economic belt, as the study area, this article measures its industrial environmental efficiency and identified factors′ significant function on the transformation of environmental efficiency. In this study, the data envelope analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) are employed in the computation of industrial environmental efficiency of Liaoning costal economic belt over the period of 2001-2009. Then, this study builds a multiple linear regression using Tobit model to identify factors that influence industrial environmental efficiency. The results indicate that, in 2001-2009, Liaoning costal industrial environmental efficiency improved from 0.15 to 0.44, but there was still a gap compared with ideal production status. Industrial environmental efficiencies of the 6 cities in this area were quite different. Panjin had the highest industrial environmental efficiency and Dandong the lowest. Dalian had the best output elasticity as its industrial growth was promoted mostly by the increase of labor force, and had the least reliance upon environmental cost. However, the growth of industrial economy in the cities of Dandong, Yingkou and Huludao still had strong dependence on the increase of environmental cost. There were 4 factors acting on environmental efficiency significantly. They were proportion of heavy industry, capital-labor ratio, proportion of hi-tech industry and citizens′ living standard. The increase of heavy industrial proportion and capitalization reduced industrial environmental efficiency. The development of hi-tech industry also decreased environmental efficiency as it focused on equipment manufacturing and petrochemical industry which produce large amount of waste. Progress of citizens′ living standard increased environmental efficiency for citizens not only demanded more industrial products but also requested better surviving environment. Other factors like ownership, production scale, foreign investment, environmental management did not have significant function. The environmental efficiency did not decrease or increase with the reduction of proportion of nation-owned enterprises or large enterprises. The fast augmentation of foreign investment did not pull up environmental efficiency as expected. As the management of environmental quality did not perform continually, it is not useful in the increase of environmental efficiency. In the future industrial development, in order to raise environmental efficiency, Liaoning coastal economic belt should impair the share of heavy industry, develop the hi-tech industry scientifically without causing more severe environmental problems, introduce foreign investment more prudently without bringing in more pollution and strengthen environmental control.

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    高铁站区产业空间分布及集聚特征——以沪宁城际高铁南京站为例
    王丽,曹有挥,刘可文,王聪
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 301-307.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.301
    摘要   HTML   PDF (857KB)

    分析沪宁城铁南京站乘客的出行距离特性,初步确定高铁站区圈层范围为3 000 m。以南京站周边3 000 m范围内6 145个企业的地址、行业隶属、成立时间等为研究数据,运用空间分析方法,探讨高铁站区产业的分布与空间集聚特征。 ① 从总体看,高铁站区产业的空间分布具有明显的圈层结构,以车站为中心,以500 m为缓冲半径,在1 500~2 000 m范围企业密度最大,2 000 m以外企业密度陡然降低。② 各行业空间集聚趋势类似,随着距离增大集聚程度降低。但空间尺度上存在差异,交通运输业和房地产业集聚现象更为明显,交通指向性显著;批发和零售业集聚峰值相对最大,在大范围上有分散分布的趋势。③ 各行业空间分异特征显著,整体呈现“东低西高”,空间分异特征大致存在以下三种模式,即“小分散、大集聚”、 “大分散、大集聚”、“大分散、小集聚”。


    The questionnaires are surveyed including the passengers’ travel destination, traffic mode choice and the travel distance, etc., in the Nanjing Station of Shanghai-Nanjing Intercity high-speed railway. Collecting the address, industry category, set-up time of 6 145 companies surrounding station within 3 000 m as the study samples, using spatial analysis methods, this article analyzes the distribution of industries and spatial clusters by high-speed railway station. The resluts are as follows. 1) Generally speaking, industry location has obvious circle structure around high-speed station. The company density shows a circle structure with the Nanjing Station as the center and 500 m as the buffer radius. The company density ascends to the top at 1 500-2 000 m, and has break in the point of 2 000 m far from the Nanjing Station. The wholesale and retail industry has the largest number, business service industry in second, science and technology service industry in third. Comparing industry proportion in each circle, we come to the conclution that business service industry, accommodation and catering industry increase gradually at 0-1 500 m, reduce significantly at 2 000 m, which confirms the high-speed railway passengers on business service industry and accommodation and catering industry needs a 1 500 m-radius concentration. 2) The trend of spatial industrial concentration is similar, decreasing with the distance. Owing to the different spatial scales, the location of wholesale and retail industry has most options; transportation industry and real estate industry tend to have a significant traffic location. The accommodation and catering industry, computer service industry, science and technology service industry as well as the resident service industry show homogeneous distribution based on the cluster distribution. 3) There is a significant difference in the spatial distribution of the industry, featured by “higher in the west and lower in the east”. The spatial distribution patterns are generally identified in three modes of concentration. The transportation industry and real estate industry have a "small scatter, large cluster" mode, that is, the spatial distribution of companies show relative concentration and form a single hotspot. The resident service industry, wholesale and retail industry as well as accommodation and catering industry present a “large scatter, large cluster” mode. Business service industry, science and technology service industry and computer service industry have a “large scatter, small cluster” mode. The results above confirm the Ripley' s K function analysis.

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    地方生产网络空间结构演化过程与机制研究 ——以潮汕纺织服装行业为例
    马海涛,刘志高
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 308-313.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.308
    摘要   HTML   PDF (492KB)

    采用社会调查法,借助社会网络分析软件,运用演化经济地理学核心概念,对中国潮汕地区的纺织服装生产网络进行了案例研究。结果表明:① 改革开放后,潮汕地方生产网络内部空间结构不断演变,从多点集聚向多个孤立集群网络演进,再向跨集群地方网络发展;② 网络演化本质上是企业关系的变化,企业间关系是在外部环境作用下企业根据自身能力做出的战略选择,地理临近与路径依赖使潮汕集群网络结构得以保持(即“遗传”),企业创新需求作用下的路径创新推动了集群间联系的发展(即“变异”);③ 生产网络演化机理的研究还应加强对路径创新与地方产业升级的研究。


    Economic geographers have recently attempted to develop relational and evolutionary economic geographies. Production networks and network evolution are both popular in economic geographies. Local production network is a valuable tool by which we can have a better understanding of the global-local interaction. Now the research on local production networks is moving from relatively static analysis to historical and dynamic process study. But there is little writing about the evolution of local production network in the context of China. This article tries to full this gap and takes textile and apparel industry in Chaoshan Region as a case to explore the processes and dynamics of production networks in the context of China’s transition to market-oriented economy. Here social interview is employed as a research method, based on the Ucinet software data. The result indicates that the internal structure of production networks in Chaoshan’s textile and apparel industry has changed from the geographical concentration of enterprises to multi-clusters networks and then to cross-clusters production networks. This change can be well explained by the basic concepts of Evolutionary Economic Geography such as selection, retention, variation and path dependence and path creation. Network evolution is in nature relational evolution between enterprises which were influenced by external environments and different development phases. Some mechanisms including geographical proximity of spin-offs, aggregation economy of enterprise in related industries and relational dependence together make the whole local production network be relatively stable structure of the internal network, which can be called “retention”. However, market and institutional innovation and path destruction induce structural change, leading to the gradual formation of cross-clusters production networks, which can be called “variation”. Finally, this article strongly argues that the evolutionary thinking is helpful in explaining the evolution of local production networks and the evolutionary study of local production networks would offer insightful suggestions for policy-makers. Interaction of cross-border production networks and institutional innovation would be the important research topics of network evolution in the near future.

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    郑汴都市区一次能源消费的碳排放变化及机理
    张丽君,秦耀辰,张金萍,张艳
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 314-321.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.314
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    城市发展面临着向低碳生态转型的挑战,探析城市一次能源消费的碳排放变化及机理是郑汴都市区低碳生态化研究的基点。采用LMDI分析法对2000~2009年间郑汴都市区化石能源碳排放变化、2004~2007年间一次能源碳排放与主要农作物碳吸收变化机理进行研究,构建低碳发展判别函数进一步辨析郑汴都市区产业低碳发展的类型与方向。结果发现:郑汴都市区的碳排放量逐年增加,但两市的增长速度与方式有所不同;碳排放量是在经济发展水平与人口规模、能源强度与能源结构、种植结构、播种面积及产出强度等7个因子相互作用下变化的,经济发展水平的提高是促进碳排放增加的显著因素,能源强度、播种面积和产出强度的增加是抑制碳排放的显著因素;郑汴都市区的产业错位发展有利于消减碳排放总量,但多种产业的产能和结构亟待提高与调整。郑汴城市复合生态系统之间的低碳耦合发展路径、各子系统之间的相互作用机理是应继续深入的方向。


    Responses to the challenge of global warming include research into scope for adoption of low-carbon approaches to resource use. Urban development is faced the transition to a low carbon eco-city, and evolution mechanisms of urban primary energy-related carbon emissions are the premise and foundation for Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area′s low carbon eco-city research. The paper estimates carbon emissions and its influencing factors in different periods by carbon emission model and LMDI method. The various influencing factors include population size, economic development level, planting structure, crop yields, crop sown area, energy intensity, energy structure and so on. Especially, evolution mechanisms of fossil fuel-related carbon emissions from 2000 to 2009, primary energy-related carbon emissions and major crops carbon sequestration from 2004 to 2007 are explored using LMDI analysis. In addition, the low-carbon development identification function is constructed to choose the further leading industry. The conclusions can be drawn as follows. 1) Carbon emissions gradually increase per year in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area during the study period, with great difference in amount, speed and structure. Specifically, primary energy-related carbon emissions have a great increase while major crops' carbon sequestrations increase slowly. Coal-related carbon emissions play an important role in total emissions, and biomass energy-related carbon emissions can not be ignored compared with natural gas and crude oil. Fossil fuel-related carbon emissions and primary energy-related carbon emissions of Zhengzhou are higher than that of Kaifeng, while major crops carbon sequestrations of Kaifeng are higher than that of Zhengzhou. 2) Carbon emissions change with the interaction of factors such as economic development level, energy intensity, energy structure, population size, planting structure, crop yields, crop sown area. Economic growth is the most significant effect to promote an increase in carbon emissions. Energy intensity improvement effectively promotes a decrease in carbon emissions. And crop sown area expansion and crop yields increase are significant effect in carbon sequestration with some difference in Zhengzhou and Kaifeng. Because of the data and methods selected in this article, effects of energy structure and planting structure are not very significant. 3) The industry′s complementary development is contributed to reduce carbon emissions in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area, but a variety of industries′ capacity and structure needs improving and adjusting. The improvement of energy utilization technology in new industries, the upgrading and adjustment of traditional industries, the update of urban functions has brought new opportunities for low-carbon development in Zheng-Bian metropolitan area. 4) Low-carbon urban complex ecosystem is an open complex giant system, and mechanisms on carbon emissions of energy-material- information flow are the direction for further study. It is of significant importance to comprehensively analysis the interactive mechanism among different factors, such as population growth and technological progress, economic development and industrial restructuring, energy intensity and land use change. The ultimate goal is to regulate Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area into a low-carbon eco-city by exploring the carbon emission discipline in built-up areas, expansion areas, and carbon footprint area in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng complex ecosystem.

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    国外高速铁路对旅游影响研究及启示
    汪德根,陈田,李立,章鋆
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 322-328.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.322
    摘要   HTML   PDF (419KB)

    交通是旅游系统的重要组成部分,是旅游发展不可或缺的先决条件,每一次交通运输方式的革命性突破都深刻地影响着旅游发展。作为当今世界“交通革命”重要推动力-高速铁路已在全世界普遍发展起来。在对所能获得的国外有关高铁旅游研究的代表性成果进行分析的基础上,从高铁对其他旅游交通系统、旅行方式、旅行时间、区域旅游收益、目的地旅游要素结构、目的地旅游空间结构的影响等方面进行了深入系统地分析。结果表明,国外对高铁旅游研究的关注度高,研究领域广,注重定量分析和实证研究,为中国高铁旅游研究提供了非常有价值的借鉴和范式。加强高铁旅游的理论和实证研究,有利于更客观地预测和评价高铁对旅游的影响,为高铁网络化时代旅游可持续发展提供科学依据。


    Transportation is one of the essential elements in tourism system and the precondition of tourism development. Therefore, a revolutionary mode of transport will have a profound impact on tourism. The high-speed railway (HSR), as the impetus of transportation innovation, has been expanded thought out the world. Based on the analysis on all the useful English documents, this article analyzes the impacts of HSR on other transport modes, travel modes, traveling time, regional tourism revenue, structure of tourism elements in destination and special tourism structure in destination. The conclusions can be arrived that: 1) the overseas researches attaching great importance to the tourism impact of HSR, and relevant researches are rich. 2) The overseas researches involve extensive fields, such as the impacts of HSR to other transport modes, travel modes, traveling time, and regional tourism revenue, structure of tourism elements in destination and special tourism structure in destination. 3) The overseas researches use quantitative and empirical analysis to study the impact of HSR to traveling time and travel modes. Based on the spatial region structure theory and system theory, such as “core-edge” theory, the overseas researches analyze the impact of HSR to special tourism structure by mode construction and mathematical statistics. The domestic researches about HSR are comparatively rare and narrow in China. They mostly focusd on the descriptive study but not quantitative research, and stay on the assumption level. So the empirical research is relatively less. Therefore, the overseas researches on HSR provide a valuable reference and paradigm for us. To strengthen the theoretical and practical research about the high-speed railway tourism can help predict and assess the tourism impacts of high-speed railway objectively, which affords the scientific foundation for the tourism sustainable development in the era of high-speed railway network.

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    社区参与对旅游地居民社区归属感的中介效应━━以浙江安吉为例
    杜宗斌,苏勤,姜辽
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 329-335.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.329
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    通过文献分析,引入旅游感知﹑旅游获益两个变量,构建旅游地社区参与—社区归属感结构模型,探讨社区参与对社区归属感的中介效应与传导机制。以浙江安吉为例,运用极大似然法进行参数估计,研究发现:① 旅游感知和旅游获益是社区参与影响社区归属感的两个中介变量,都显著引起社区参与对社区归属感的部分中介效应。② 旅游感知和旅游获益单独作为中介变量介入社区参与对社区归属感的影响时,旅游获益所起的部分中介作用显著大于旅游感知;二者同时介入时,旅游感知所起的部分中介作用显著大于旅游获益,共同引致的部分中介作用达到最大。③ 社区参与对社区归属感的影响机制存在两条途径,一条是直接影响路径,另一条是以旅游感知、旅游获益为中介变量的间接影响路径,间接路径稍低于直接路径。④ 提高旅游感知不仅要重视提高旅游地居民文化程度,还要考虑旅游地发展阶段的现实情况;改善旅游获益应尽可能满足旅游地社区居民的经济发展需要。


    While community is one of central research issues in the field of recreation geography, community involvement is essential premise of sustainable tourism development, and sense of community has been important for the existence and healthy development of tourism community. Properly understanding driving mechanism of community involvement influence on the sense of community is favorable to provide alternative measures in achieving the goal of residents' active support for tourism development in China. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) approach and introducing the two key variables of perceived tourism impacts and personal benefit from tourism, the article builds the conceptual model of community involvement-the sense of community (CI-SC), aiming at exploring the mediate effects of community involvement influence on the sense of community and their transmission mechanism. To test the conceptual model of CI-SC, an empirical survey was performed in several tourism destinations in Anji County in Zhejiang Province by use of stratified sample method. A total of 558 valid questionnaires were obtained. Employing AMOS 7.0, the conceptual model of CI-SC fitted better with the data collected. Furthermore, all the five path coefficients of the conceptual models are proved to be statistically significant at p<0.05 or p<0.001. To be specific, the results indicated that: 1) Perceived tourism impacts and personal benefit from tourism were two mediate variables of community involvement influence on the sense of community, and such of the mediate variables brought significantly partial mediate effects. 2) When perceived tourism impacts or personal benefit from tourism is alone mediate variables between community involvement and sense of community, the partial mediate effect caused by personal benefit from tourism is significantly higher than perceived tourism impacts. When they are simultaneously mediate variables, the partial mediate effect caused by perceived tourism impacts is significantly higher than personal benefit from tourism, and the partial mediate effects caused by them is the maximum. 3) Two paths existed in impact mechanism between community involvement and sense of community, one is direct while the other is indirect mediated by perceived tourism impacts and personal benefit from tourism, and the indirect is slightly lower than the direct. 4) Increase of perceived tourism impacts is not only the importance of improvement the educational level of local residents, but also considerating the situation with the stage of tourism destination development; To improve personal benefit from tourism should meet tourism community residents' desire for economic development aspects as much as possible

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    中国东北东部边境地区旅游业发展研究
    徐淑梅,李圆慧,王亚丰
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 336-341.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.336
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    近年来,随着东北三省几大经济区(带)的战略地位上升,以及一批重大基础设施的相继开建,使得东北地区经济呈现出快速发展之势。同时东北区域一体化进程明显地加快,东北亚地区国际环境的改善以及合作需求的增强,为东北东部边境地区旅游业发展提供了巨大动力。在具体分析了东北东部边境地区旅游资源优势、旅游业发展现状及存在问题的基础上,对区域旅游业发展提出具体建议,特色旅游产品开发主要集中于对边境旅游、自然生态旅游、冰雪旅游、文化旅游等产品的开发,并在此基础上构建“五区–四轴”的旅游空间布局及区域战略合作关系。


    With the development of major economic zones (belts) in the three provinces becoming a national strategy and the successive construction of many big infrastructures recently, the economy of Northeast China has been rapidly developed, which obviously accelerates the integration process of Northeast China. Moreover, the improving international environment and increasing cooperation demand remarkably motivate the tourism development of the eastern border area in Northeast China. The eastern border area herein is defined as an area of Northeast China which is close to Russia and North Korea, including territorial ranges of Hegang, Jiamusi, Shuangyashan, Qitaihe, Jixi, Mudanjiang, Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, Baishan, Tonghua, Benxi, and Dandong. In terms of geographic location, touring resources and historical cultures, the border area definitely plays a leading role in Chinese regional touring cooperation in the northeastern Asia. Touring in the northeastern Asia presently is becoming globally popular, and tourism development will encounter a new breakthrough in regional cooperation of China. Simultaneously, the border area is a main body of Chinese regional cooperation in the northeastern Asia, which bears the reality and feasibility of all-win researching and developing tourism in the international cooperation. The cooperative activities include developing strategies and market strategies of regional tourism, planning and spreading selected touring lines, coordinating foreign negotiation to develop and exploit characteristic touring programs such as border touring and touring abroad, building regional touring network, and establishing market system and business service platform. In this article, based on the detailed investigation and systematic analysis of successful experience of border tourism in China and overseas, the critical issues on cooperative development of tourism in border area are profoundly discussed, aiming to promote the progress of touring chains in the area and the northeastern Asia. Through detailed study of tourism resources advantages, current situation and issues of tourism development, specific suggestions are proposed to regional tourism development of the eastern border area in Northeast China. The developing keys of characteristic touring products is border touring, natural-ecologic touring, ice and snow touring, and culture touring, based on which, the corresponding tourism spatial layout and regional strategic cooperation of “five regions” (i.e., Jiamusi-Fuyuan, Xingkai Lake, Mudanjiang-Suifenhe, Yanji-Changbai Mountains, and Benxi-Yanji touring areas) and “four axes” (i.e., Heilongjiang River, Wusulijiang River, Tumenjiang River, and Yalujiang River touring axes) are also constructed.

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    粮食增产背景下松花江区水资源承载力分析
    张士锋,孟秀敬
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 342-347.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.342
    摘要   HTML   PDF (405KB)

    松花江区是中国粮食增产计划的重点地区,这势必对该区的水资源开发利用提出挑战。建立研究区水资源承载力的综合评价模型,选取社会经济指标、用水指标、水土资源对人口的承载指标、水资源供需指标和水环境等5类共10项指标组成评价指标体系,采用聚类分析、层次分析和模糊矩阵的方法进行计算。以2007年作为现状年,1999年为参照年份,得到各年份水资源承载力整体均处于安全状态的结论;结合研究区具体情况对水资源承载力的影响因素进行分析,预测粮食增产条件下研究区水资源承载力的变化趋势。


    The Songhua River area was listed as one of the key areas of “China’s Plan for Expansion of Grain Production Capacity”. The grain production will increase 30% in 10 years according to this plan, this means that grain production will reach 6.5x1010kg in 2020. However, this plan will undoubtedly present a challenge to the local water resources development. In order to evaluate the impact of water development in this area, ten indexes, which were selected base on the analysis of relevant indicators including Socio-economic indicator, water use index, bearing capacity index of water and land resources to population, water supply and demand index and water quality indicators, were used to set up the comprehensive evaluation model of Water Resources Bearing Capacity (WRBC) using Cluster Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Matrix. Firstly the AHP analyses of the indicators provide the weight of each indicator. Five clusters are thus classified to these 10 indicators as follows: water demand and supply 0.229 2, water and land capacity 0.225 7, water quality 0.199 3, water use 0.185 8, and social economic index 0.159 9. Secondly modeling analysis is undertaken to the water resource capacity status in different years. The year 1999 was set as reference year while 2007 was set as present situation. The result demonstrated that the water resources bearing capacity in every year was in the safe condition. Furthermore the influencing factors of the WRBC were analyzed in combination with the specific situation of the research area. Thirdly, the variation trends of WRBC under the condition of increasing grain production were also predicted. In the condition of water use index is 0.6 or less and the better water quality control, the WRBC in the year of 2020 will be safe in the rainfall frequency of 50% as well as in 75%. Further analysis shows that another important indicator-social economic indicator-will contribute greatly on the future water safe to the grain expansion plan. This research proves that it is reasonable to implement the plan for the expansion of grain production capacity in the Songhua River area. Also based on this result, we can draw resolutions that there are still grain increment potential in Songhua River area in the view of water capacity itself.

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    基于社区的台风灾害概率风险评估——以上海市杨浦区富禄里居委地区为例
    温家洪,黄蕙,陈珂,叶欣梁,胡恒智,华震阳
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 348-355.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.348
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    基于PGIS方法,以上海市杨浦区富禄里居委地区为案例,开展给定概率下的社区台风风险分析。结果表明,近60 a 影响上海市区的台风中,最大风速大于17.2 m/s的超越概率(AEP)为12 %。在此情景下,共有52幢建筑物(占全部建筑物的15.3 %)有台风大风损失。上海市区最大的一次台风过程雨量达306.5 mm,其超越概率为1.8 %。在该情景下,研究区地面积水最深处达0.61 m,有115幢建筑物(占全部建筑物的33.8 %)有经济损失。在上述情景下,台风大风与过程雨量造成的损失对当地居民尚属可接受风险范围。


    Intense tropic cyclones, one of the major natural hazards prevailing in Shanghai, cause significant social and economic losses almost every year. In this paper, probabilistic community-based risk assessment is carried out, taking Fululi community of Yangpu District, Shanghai, for an example. The annual exceedance probabilities of the maximum wind speed and accumulated rainfall are calculated based on Shanghai tropic cyclone meteorological data in 1949-2008. Combined with the data interpreted from 4 m resolution aerial photograph acquired in 2006, relief altitude difference data measured by leveling, and damage and loss data by tropic cyclones from in situ investigations, questionnaires and interviews in Fululi, the hazards, elements at risk, and risk under specific scenarios are assessed. The result shows: 1) The annual exceedance probability of maximum wind speed 17.2 m/s is 12%. The largest accumulated rainfall during one typhoon process is 306 mm, and its annual exceedance probability is 1.8%. 2) On the scenario of 12% AEP of maximum wind speed, there are 52 (or 15.3%) buildings with losses in Fululi. 34 of the 52 buildings have losses between 0-100 yuan (RMB), 11 buildings have losses between 150- 200 yuan, 4 have loss of 300 yuan, 1 has loss of 500 yuan, and 2 have loss of 600 yuan. 47 of these, covering more than 90%, are residence buildings. There are 7 buildings with strong wind losses larger than 250 yuan, of which 5 belong to old masonry-timber structure and other 2 buildings belong to old brick-masonry structure. 3) On the scenario of accumulated rainfall AEP equal to 1.8%, the deepest inundation depth is 0.61 m in Fululi. There are 115 (or 33.8 %) buildings that have losses by rainstore, and all these buildings are for residence. Of the 115 buildings, 11 have losses between 0-200 RMB yuan; 55 have losses between 200-500 yuan; 31, 500-1 000 yuan; 13, 1000-1500 yuan; and 5, around 2000 yuan. Most of the buildings, covering 77.8 %, with losses larger than 500 yuan are old brick-masonry structure and old masonry-timber structure. According to the investigations, the water depth less than 5 cm causes little damage and loss of the resident properties. When the water depth reaches 15 cm, it will lead to some losses, and if the water depth is larger than 30 cm, it will cause relatively larger losses. Though the strong wind and accumulated rainfall induced losses are not as serious as a big disaster to the residents there, i.e., the risk is acceptable, but it is necessary to make emergency planning to cope with more serious extreme events in future.

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    基于GIS的低温冷冻灾害风险区划研究——以安徽省为例
    唐为安,田红,杨元建,卢燕宇,徐光清,温华洋,王胜
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 356-361.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.356
    摘要   HTML   PDF (578KB)

    以安徽省为例,基于自然灾害风险形成原理,利用气象、基础地理信息、农业和社会经济等方面数据,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性以及抗灾能力等4个方面来综合评估安徽省低温冷冻灾害风险程度的地区差异,最终建立综合的灾害风险指数,并将该指数应用于安徽省低温冷冻灾害进行风险区划及结果验证。结果表明,安徽省低温灾害风险评估模型比较客观,较全面地反映出安徽省的低温冷冻灾害风险水平。


    Using the meteorological, geographical, agricultural and socio-economical data, the four indexes, including the danger of disaster-causing factors, the sensitivity of disaster-formative environments, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing body and the capability of disaster prevention, were presented and used to analyze the regional difference of cold disaster in Anhui Province based on the natural disaster risk theory. Furthermore, a comprehensive risk index model of cold disaster was constructed to zone the risk of cold disaster in Anhui Province using the above four disaster risk indexes and GIS. Finally, the zonation results were validated by the historical disaster data. The results showed that the cold disaster risk assessment model of Anhui Province was reasonable and objective, and its assessment results were relatively suitable for the fact of clod disaster risk in Anhui Province. Particularly, the high risk zones of cold disaster were mainly located in the northern areas of Anhui Province and the some mountainous areas, and the low risk of cold disaster zones were mainly located near water and cities areas in Anhui Province. Comparing with the historical disaster data, the zonation of cold disaster results were in accordance with the actual distributions. This work provided convincing evidences to assess, prevent and reduce natural cold disaster.

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    渭-库绿洲地下水对土壤盐渍化和其逆向演替过程的影响
    韩桂红,塔西甫拉提•特依拜,买买提•沙吾提,张飞
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 362-367.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.362
    摘要   HTML   PDF (555KB)

    基于遥感数据,结合地下水位观测资料,本文对渭-库绿洲土壤盐渍化与地下水的关系进行了定量研究,并探讨土壤盐渍化的逆向演替过程。研究表明:渭-库绿洲在地下水埋深2.3~2.7 m区间,盐渍地面积占的比例较高,在地下水埋深2.7~3.4 m区间,盐渍地面积占的比例相对较低;渭-库绿洲部分地方地下水位已低于影响地表盐渍化的水位临界值(4.66 m),地下水矿化度低于3 g/L,研究区整体处于有利于土壤盐渍化逆向演替的环境之中;土壤盐渍化的逆向演替过程具有时空特征,由绿洲上部向下部,内部向外部逐步发生逆向演替。


    Based on remote sensing data, and combined with groundwater level observation data, the study do an quantitative research for the relationship between soil salinization and groundwater , and explore the salinization reversal evolvement of Wei-ku oasis. The results show that: 1) the annual ground water lowered 0.05 meters in the study area, with a downward trend from 1997 to 2001 year; there was obviously declined in ground water from 2002 to 2007 year, the rate was 0.175 meters every year, which was mainly caused by human activity, human land cultivation, a lot of drilling and utilization of groundwater resources, and the rise and fall of groundwater caused soil salinization.2) the middle-mild saline land has declined by 63.1 km2 from 1989 to 2001 year; while the severe saline land has increased by 342.47 km2 ;the total area of salt-affected ??land increased 279.37 km2,the average annual increase of 23.28 km2. From 2001 to 2007 year, the middle- mild saline land has decreased by 155.42 km2;the severe saline land area has increased by 70.80 km2; the total saline area was obviously decreased by 84.62 km2, at an average annual decrease rate of 14.1 km2. 3) the proportion of salinized land area is relatively high when the ground water level is in the range from 2.3 to 2.7 meters, there was a biggish value in 2.4 to 2.5 meters; the proportion is relatively low when the ground water level is in the range from 2.7 to 3.4 meters; 4) Some parts of Wei-ku oasis has already in a reversal evolvement circumstance which is valuable for soil salinization, the ground water table is below threshold(4.66 meters),which would affect the surface salt accumulation, the groundwater mineralization degree is lower than 3 g/L; 5) Salinization reversal evolvement presents temporal and spatial characters ,and gradually occurs from the upper to the lower,and from the inside to the outside of Oasis.

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    基于ASTER GDEM数据喀斯特区域地貌类型划分与分析
    马士彬,安裕伦
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 368-373.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.368
    摘要   HTML   PDF (877KB)

    以30 m分辨率ASTER GDEM数据为基础,通过GIS空间分析和非监督分类的方法进行地貌基本类型的自动划分。研究结果表明:① ASTERGDEM数据能够满足1:10万比例尺下喀斯特区域的地表形态表达; ② 以流域为单位提取地形因子符合地貌发育的基本规律,提取的地形因子能客观的反应地表真实形态; ③ 采用非监督分类法能够有效的实现1:10万比例尺下地貌基本形态的定量化、自动化分类。


    Geomorphology is one of the most important parts which constitute the elements of physical geography. Based on the GDEM of 1:100000 ASTER, the optimum analysis window was verified and topographic factors were extracted in the unit of drainage area. With GIS spatial analysis and unsupervised classification, the general geomorphologic types in Karst Region were auto-classified. The study results indicate: (1) DEM at the scale of 1:100000 can fill the requirements to express the configuration of earth surface on meso-scale. (2) It confirms the basic regulation to select the analysis window and extract topographic factors taking the drainage area as a unit. Topographic factors extracted can reflect the actual configuration of earth surface more impersonally. (3) Multi-spectral image is combined with topographic factors. With the method of ISODATA unsupervised classification, it can implement the quantification of the general geomorphologic types and automatic classification effectively on meso-scale. The precision of the data extracted can meet the demands of computer automatic classification. These experimental results improve the application of ISODATA unsupervised classification in the automatic classification of geomorphology.

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    安徽省大雾时空分布特征及其发生的气象条件
    陶寅,王胜,田红,温华洋
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 374-379.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.374
    摘要   HTML   PDF (526KB)

    利用1961~2009年近50 a来安徽省80个台站大雾观测资料,分析安徽省大雾的时、空分布特征及其发生的气象条件。结果表明:多雾区主要位于大别山区和皖南山区。雾日有明显的季节变化和月际分布,秋、冬季雾的范围较大,春、夏季雾的范围较小,其中冬季最大,夏季最小;大部分地区主要为冬季峰值型雾,雾日集中在10月至次年l月;雾大多数开始于23时至次日8时,结束于5~12时(8时为生成、消散最高峰),持续时间多在0~3 h,以1 h以内居多。近50 a安徽省雾日总体上先增后减,但各地变化特征存在差异;潮湿空气、微弱风速和适宜气温利于大雾形成。


    The spatial and temporal characteristics and meteorological conditions for fog formation were analyzed based on the fog data from 80 stations in the period 1971-2005 in Anhui Province. The results show that fogs were concentrated in the Dabie Mountain and the southern Anhui Province. Fog days were of obvious seasonal and inter-monthly variation with wide areas in autumn and winter (maximum), narrow areas in spring and summer (minimum), and most concentrated in October, December and January in most parts of Anhui. Fog usually began at 23:00-08:00 LST and ended at 05:00-12:00 LST (maximum both at 08:00 LST), with duration 1-3 h and maximum 1 h. The yearly variation trend of fog days, different in the spatial distribution, was overall decreasing after increasing in the recent 50 years. Moist air with high relative humidity, weak wind and appropriate temperature benifits the formation of fog.

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    1959~2009年宁夏极端温度阈值变化及其与AO指数相关分析
    薛红喜,孟丹,吴东丽,王连喜,李琪
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 380-385.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.380
    摘要   HTML   PDF (399KB)

    以1959~2009年宁夏10个测站的逐日最高和最低气温资料,运用百分位法定义不同测站的逐年极端高、低温阈值,研究了宁夏近51 a来极端温度的变化特征;通过Mann-Kendall检验得出宁夏各气象站点温度发生突变的年份;并运用Pearson相关系数分析探讨极端温度阈值与AO的相关关系。结果表明: ① 宁夏极端高温、低温阈值均呈极显著上升趋势,但极端低温阈值上升趋势更显著; ② 极端高温阈值北高南低,极端低温阈值南高北低; ③ 宁夏极端低温阈值发生突变的时间集中在20世纪80年代左右,极端高温阈值的突变时间相对较晚;④ 极端高温阈值与夏季AO指数相关性不显著,极端低温阈值与冬季AO指数呈显著正相关性,北极涛动对宁夏冬季低温的影响较大。


    Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data of 1959~2009 at ten meteorological stations in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, and using percentile method defined extreme high and low temperature threshold of different stations year by year, this paper studied nearly 51 years extreme temperature variation features in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, obtained temperature mutated years in the meteorological stations by Mann-Kendall test, and then applied Pearson correlation coefficient to analyze the correlation between the extreme temperature threshold and the AO index. The result showed that: (1) Both extreme high temperature threshold and extreme low temperature threshold in Ningxia showed very significant upward trend. The increase amplitudes were 0.199℃/10a and 0.62℃/10a for the extreme high and low temperature threshold respectively and the upward trend of extreme low temperature threshold was more significant, so the upward of extreme low temperature was the main character and trend of the temperature change in the nearly 51 years in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. (2) Extreme high temperature threshold was high in north and low in south while extreme low temperature threshold was low in north and high in south of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. The difference value between the extreme high temperature and the extreme low temperature showed that the temperature changing range of temperature was high in north and low in south of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. (3) The mutation time of extreme low temperature threshold in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region concentrated in the 1980s or so, and the mutation time of extreme high temperature threshold relatively late. The mutation time of the extreme temperature showed that the global climate change had the more influence on the low temperature. The mutation time of Guyuan was large far later than other regions, and the result meant that the mountains around Guyuan would block the cold and warm atmosphere and reduce the global climate change influence on the extreme temperature. (4) From 1959 to 2009, the annual average values, the summer average values and the winter average values of the AO index had rising trend, and the maximum increase amplitudes of the AO index appeared in the winter. The correlation of extreme high temperature threshold and the summer AO index was not significant in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, and there had significant positive correlation between the extreme low temperature threshold of the north, centre and the whole area of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and the winter AO index. The Arctic Oscillation had little influence on the extreme high temperature while had great impact on winter low temperature in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. The high mountains reduced the influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the south of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region by the block of cold atmosphere, so there had no significant correlation between the extreme low temperature of south of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and the AO index.

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    南疆近60年来洪灾时空变化特征分析
    满苏尔·沙比提,吴美华
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (3): 386-392.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.386
    摘要   HTML   PDF (456KB)

    对南疆洪灾时空变化特征进行深入分析。结果表明:① 南疆洪灾,在20世纪50~70年代发生频次较低,自1980年开始显著上升。洪灾年内主要集中在3~9月,其中7月频次最多为7.8次。春季发生融雪型洪灾,夏季以暴雨洪灾和暴雨融雪型洪灾为主。② 阿克苏和喀什是南疆洪灾频次最多,暴雨洪灾持续时间最长的地区,巴州是暴雨洪灾频次及持续时间增长速度最快的地区。③ 阿克苏和喀什属于重洪灾区、巴州属于中洪灾区、克州与和田属于轻洪灾区。④ 洪灾损失随着工农业生产总值的增长而增加,而且增长速度比经济增长速度快,建议加大防洪投入力度,建设控制性水利工程。


    The spatio-temporal change characteristics of flood disasters in the southern Xinjiang were analyzed using data of the break-down houses, the total area of disaster-suffered farmland, the economic loss and the total amount of death beast in 1949-2008. The situations of flood disaster in each places of the southern Xinjiang were evaluated using grey correlation disaster evaluating model. The results of the study showed that: 1) The frequency and accumulative durations of flood disaster in the southern Xinjiang were obviously increased. The frequency of flood disaster was low within the 1950s and the 1970s, but increased from 1980s. The flood disaster occurred mainly from March to September each year. The frequency of flood disaster in July was most, which was 7.8 times. The second main month for flood disaster was June, which happened 6 times in June. Flood disaster by snow melt happens in spring, while flood disaster by rain storm, snow melt and rainstorm happens in summer, and flood disaster by ice emphraxis happens in winter. 2) The frequency of flood disasters in Aksu and Kashgar were the most, and the duration of flood disaster by rainstorm was the longest. The speed of the increase of flood disaster by rainstorm was fastest. 3) The southern Xinjiang could be divided into strong flood disaster area, moderate flood disaster area and slight flood disaster area, thereinto, Aksu and Kashgar were strong flood disaster areas, Bayinholin was moderate flood disaster area and Kizilsu and Hotan were slight flood disaster areas. 4) The economic loss from flood disaster was gradually increased with the increase of the total value of industrial and agricultural production, and the speed of the increase of economic loss was faster than the economic increase. The paper suggested that the investment for disaster prevention should be increased, and the disaster relief systems should be established so that to strengthen the disaster prevention and control.

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