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  • 地理科学
      2015年, 第35卷, 第1期 刊出日期:2015-01-20 上一期    下一期
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    全国资源环境承载能力监测预警(2014版)学术思路与总体技术流程
    樊杰,王亚飞,汤青,周侃
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 1-10.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.1
    摘要   HTML   PDF (549KB)

    建立资源环境承载能力监测预警机制,是全面深化改革的一项创新性工作。从资源环境承载能力的科学内涵出发,以区域可持续发展为指向,探究资源、环境等构成的承载体——自然基础同承载对象——人类生产生活活动之间形成的“压力-状态-响应”过程,提出资源环境承载能力预警是从资源环境约束上限或人口经济合理规模等关键阈值开展的超载预警,以及从自然基础条件变化或资源利用和环境影响变化态势开展的过程预警的学术思路。在探讨承载能力预警指标体系选取原则的基础上,构建陆域和海域差异化的预警指标体系和总体技术流程。采用土地资源压力、水资源利用强度、环境胁迫程度、植被盖度变化作为基础指标进行地域全覆盖评价;针对城市化地区、农业地区、牧业地区、生态地区,分别选择灰霾污染程度、耕地面积增减状况、草蓄平衡指数、生态环境质量变化状态作为专项指标,确定各类专项指标的关键阈值并进行分类评价;最后进行复合,形成在鲜明主体功能定位指向下的差别化评价方法、取得具有一致性表达的评价结果,并开展资源利用效率和环境污染压力两方面的过程评价,以辅助反映中国资源环境承载能力和可持续发展能力预警状态,为提出限制性措施建议和完善监测预警机制提供科学依据。


    It is an innovative work of comprehensive deepening reforms of China to establish the mechanism of monitoring and early-warning of carrying capacity. Based on the scientific connotation of the carrying capacity of national resources and environment and oriented to regional sustainable development, this article explores the “pressure-state-response” process of the interaction between the carrying body: the natural foundation (which consists of resources, environment, ecology and disasters) with the carrying object: the human production and life activities, and presents the academic thought that the early-warning of the national resources and environment carrying capacity is an overload early-warning according to the cap of the constraints of resources and environment or the population and economic rational scales or other key thresholds, and also presents a process early-warning in terms of the changes of the natural basic conditions or the tendencies of the impact of resource utilization and environmental changes. According to the exploration on the principles of early-warning carrying capacity, this article constructs the differential indicator system and the overall technical process of early-warning of marine and terrestrial resources and environment carrying capacity. Land resources stress index, water resources use intensity index, environmental stress strength index and vegetation coverage change range index are chosen as basic indicators to conduct an overall regional evaluation, and different specific indicators, such as the pollution level of dust-haze, the increase and decrease of arable land, equilibrium index of grass and livestock and the variation of eco-environmental quality, are chosen to conduct the specific evaluation respectively for the urbanized areas, major grain producing areas, pastoral and semi-pastoral areas and ecological function areas, and then the key thresholds of these indicators are determined to conduct classifying evaluation. Finally, this article integrates all the evaluations and puts forward an evaluation method which shows the differentials in terms of major function oriented zone and evaluation results of consistent expression, and then carries out the process evaluation using two indexes of resource utilization efficiency and environment pollution pressure to reflect auxiliary the early-warning state of China's resources and environment carrying capacity and sustainable development abilities, thus providing a scientific basis for the proposed recommendations for restrictive measures and the improvement of monitoring and early-warning mechanisms.

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    信息时代的地理学与人文地理学创新
    甄峰,秦萧,席广亮
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 11-18.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.11
    摘要   HTML   PDF (443KB)

    在分析信息技术与地理学相关研究的基础上,重点讨论了中国人文地理学的发展与创新问题,包括基于大数据应用的方法革新、流动空间分析的框架、人地关系理论体系与应用研究等内容。未来中国人文地理学的发展,一方面要打破传统的学科框架,积极吸纳相关学科理论、方法和技术方面的创新成果,构建信息时代人文地理学理论与方法体系;另一方面,要立足中国国情与特色,紧扣国家战略,增强人文地理解决问题的能力,加强面向问题的综合应用研究。


    The impacts of information and telecommunication technology (ICT) on geographic progress and the innovation of theories and methods in geography are very popular research topics for geography and other related disciplines in the past 30 years. With wide application of next-generation information technology, geography will face with many opportunities in the future. There is more important academic value and practical significance to discuss theoretical system innovation of geography, especially human geography. Based on analysis of related studies of ICT and geography, this article pays more attention to discuss the development and innovation of Chinese human geography including methodological innovation based application of big data, analysis framework of space of flows, Man-land relationship with theory system and application, etc. As to the development of Chinese human geography in the future, on the one hand, it needs to break up framework of traditional discipline to foster a new theoretical and methodological system of human geography in the information era with integrating innovation works of other related disciplines including theories, methods and technology. On the other hand, some steps also should be done to enhance ability to solve problems for human geography and comprehensive application according to Chinese characteristics and national strategies.

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    建立中国自由贸易区的政治地理学理论基础及模式选择
    孟广文
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 19-29.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.19
    摘要   HTML   PDF (458KB)

    依据分级主权管理和政策空间分异理论分析中国分级主权管理和政策空间分异的现状,阐述中国建立自由贸易区的理论基础,提出中国建立自由贸易区的结构和区位模式,并分析论证天津自由贸易区和自由港城的规划与建设模式和路径。从理论层面,中国本来实施的就是分级主权管理政策,而事实上也存在分级主权管理的各类型特区,因此,无论是从理论上还是在实践上,建立“境内关外”型自由贸易区只不过是中国分级主权管理政策在经济领域内的新发展和新探索。中国贸易型自由经济区应包括保税区、边境贸易区、自由贸易区、自由港、自由市或自由城。应以“珠三角”、“长三角”和“环渤海地区”为重点,逐渐向边境口岸和内部节点地区扩展,分阶段有选择的建立自由贸易区,以促进区域经济中心和世界城市的形成与发展。环渤海区域选择天津保税港区为基础建立自由贸易区具有综合竞争优势。


    The Special Zone is the economic, political and military zone with special objectives inside or outside a country, or cross border area by sharing economic incentives and administrative privileges. As the basis for political and military zones, Chinese economic special zones, specially Chinese trade-based free economic zone, such as bonded zone, bonded logistic zone and bonded port zone, not only responds to changes in the global economic and trade patterns, deepen the reform and opening up, and promote the economic restructuring, but also faces the theoretical predicament of the further development and transformation. Moreover, few studies focus on the model selection and theoretical basis on the establishment of free trade zones in China. Therefore, based on graduated sovereignty theory and policy geographical differentiation, this paper analyzes the current situation of graduated sovereignty and policy spatial division of China, and formulates the theoretical foundation, the types and spatial model of China’s establishing free trade zone with the development model and path of free trade zone and free port city in Tianjin. The study suggests that China has already been implementing the hierarchical management policy based on graduated sovereignty theory, and in fact, there are various types of graduated sovereignty. Therefore, the establishment of free trade zone with enclave customs territory is just new development and exploration of China's grating sovereignty in the economic field both theoretically and practically. The model of Chinese trade-based free economic zone shall include bonded warehouse zones, cross-border trade zone, free trade zones, free trade port zone, free ports, and free city. For promoting the formation and development of world city, free trade zones should be established step by step by focusing on "Zhujiang River Delta", "Changjiang River Delta" and "Bohai Bay Rim" and gradually extended to border crossing and nodes on the mainland area. Tianjin Dongjiang Free Trade Zone should be a competitive location choice in Bohai Bay Rim. Thus, this study will not only enrich the theories, and but also will be benefit for model selection of the establishment of free trade zones in China.

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    中国主要城市间的创新联系研究
    吕拉昌,梁政骥,黄茹
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 30-37.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.30
    摘要   HTML   PDF (698KB)

    对国内外城市创新联系综述及理论分析的基础上,通过一组测度指标,界定了城市外向创新联系规模,采用引力模型,测度了中国主要城市间的创新联系强度及格局。研究表明:中国主要城市创新联系格局基本为东强西弱,东部地区城市创新联系格局显现出以上海、南京、杭州为顶角,以北京、天津,以广州、深圳为2个底角的创新联系“金三角”。城市创新联系在空间上呈现明显的等级性:北京、上海、广州、深圳、天津、重庆等与中国的许多城市有广泛的创新联系,具有全国创新影响力;南京、杭州、武汉、郑州、济南、青岛、大连、西安等成为地区性的城市创新联系节点,具有区域性的创新影响力。在创新联系较强的东部沿海主要的经济圈,珠江三角洲经济圈城市间创新联系最强,但外向辐射力有限;长江三角洲经济圈内部创新联系较强,并与环渤海经济圈有较强的创新联系, 环渤海经济圈内部北京、天津、唐山具有较强的创新联系,外向辐射以长江三角洲的城市为主。对中国创新联系格局规律的揭示,更进一步强化了中国创新城市体系中城市的作用,并为规划与建立中国创新都市圈提供依据。


    Inter-urban linkage is traditional research field of urban geography. With the increasing importance of innovation in city, inter-urban linkage of innovation has aroused the interesting of numerous sholars, some of which have examined the field through direct surveyed approach by co-author published papers or co-author patents granted, however, this approach is limited because it lacks data of the inter-urban and the rusults of survey may not present the comprensive inter-urban innovation situation of the cities. Therefore, we employ a indrect approach , using revised gravity model to map the pattern of inter-urban innovation linkage of Chinese major cities. China takes constructing the innovation country as the core strategy, and urban innovation as the core contents of national innovation system, so urban innovation linkage is an important part of China’s national innovation system. However, a number of issues, such as the current sitation of urban innovaiton linkage, and the pattern and laws of inter urban innovation have rarely been studied. This article will try to study the inter urban innovation linkage among major Chinese cities so as to find innovation source cities and innovation nodes cities in urban innovation system and the general pattern of the inter urban innovation, to promote the complementary and optimization of urban innovation function and to plan the circle of China urban innovation. Based on the review of the literatures of innovation linkage and theoretical analysis, through establishing a set of measureement of index, this article defines ourward innovation linkage of scale and measures innovation linkage and innovation pattern among Chinese major cities. The research shows: 1) the general pattern of urban innovation linkage in East China is stronger and that in West China is weak, and a "Golden Triangle innovation linkage" pattern has formed in the coastal area of China, which takes Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou as the vertex, while Beijing-Tianjin and Guangzhou-Shenzhen as two points. 2) the city innovation linkage presents obvious hierarchy, the cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Chongqing have national innovation influence with extensive innovative linkage with the other cities in China, while cities, such as Nanjing, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Jinan, Qingdao, Dalian and Xi'an have regional innovation influence. 3) in terms of the East Coastal main economic circle in China, the Zhujiang River Delta economic circle has the strongest internal innovation linkage, but less outward innovation radiation; the Changjiang River Delta economic circle has very strong internal innovation linkage with strong external innovation linkage with the cities of Huan Bohai economic circle, while the cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan have very strong innovation linkage, and with strong outward radiation to the Changjiang River Delta economic circle. This article examines the general innovation linkage pattern among Chinese major cities considering two important elements of distance among cites and scale of urban innovation, but some elements, such institution and policies which may influence the innovation linkage have not been examined, it will be put consideration in future studies.

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    中国产业能耗的区域差异与区域联系
    李方一,刘卫东,公丕萍
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 38-46.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.38
    摘要   HTML   PDF (533KB)

    选取能源指标刻画中国区域能耗特征,揭示产业能耗的区域差异,并将30个省市、自治区划分为都市消费型、重型出口型、轻型出口型、能源基地型、中等能耗型和低能耗型6种能源利用类型。通过评估2007年各类型区域之间的隐含能源转移量,明确区域在隐含能源流中的位置,揭示产业能耗的区域联系。基于区域间投入产出分析与地域分工理论,分析中国产业能耗区域差异和区域联系现象的形成机制,可归因于区域产业分工与产业链分工,以及由此产生的最终产品与中间产品贸易,其中,区域参与产业链分工格局与区域间隐含能源流动格局基本匹配。最后为不同类型区域提出政策建议。


    Targets on energy conservation and emission reduction have been an important binding force of regional development in the last few years, along with a series of strategies and policies implemented by central government of China. It is significant to reveal regional differences and inter-regional linkage of industrial energy consumption in respect to proposing guidelines for energy conservation and emission reduction on both national and regional scales. In this study, regional differences in energy intensity in China’s 30 provinces were analyzed. And in combination with the embodied energy indicators, all of the provinces were classified into six types according to their energy consumption and development patterns, namely urban-consumer, heavy-export-oriented, light-export-oriented, energy-base, medium-energy-intensity and low-energy-intensity. Then, inter-regional linkage of energy consumption was clarified in respect to the spatial pattern of embodied energy flow in China. According to the theory of regional division of labor, the regional differences and inter-regional linkage of industrial energy consumption could be explained from two aspects. One is the inter-industrial division, and the other is industrial chain division of all regions and the resulted intermediate products trade. Specifically, the low-energy-intensity regions are specialized in producing raw materials and primary products with low energy intensity, while the heavy-export-oriented and energy-base regions are specialized in producing intermediate products with high energy intensity. Urban-consumer and light-export-oriented regions are specialized in producing final products. To be more important, the pattern of embodied energy flow in China is related to that of industrial chain division to a large degree. At last, based on the results, suggestions for the development strategies and policies of the six types of regions are given as follows: 1) for the low-energy-intensity and energy-base regions that are still in the early or middle stage of industrialization, the central government should increase financial transfer to improve infrastructure and promote technological transformation in traditional industries, and the target may be slightly lower than the national average level; 2) for heavy-export-oriented and medium-energy-intensity regions, the energy intensity target can be realized through upgrading of manufacturing industry and enhancement of proportion of tertiary industry, and the target should be higher than the national average level; 3) for urban-consumer and light-export-oriented regions that are in the late industrialization or post-industrial stage, energy saving lies on increasing the importance of high-energy products and industrial transfer, which means increasing imported embodied energy. For the country as a whole, more efforts should be made to change China’s exportation-oriented development strategies, and the position in the international trade of embodied energy, through controlling of the exportation and importation.

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    空间生产视角下的旅游地空间研究范式转型——基于空间涌现性的空间研究新范式
    黄剑锋,陆林
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 47-55.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.47
    摘要   HTML   PDF (471KB)

    面对中国经济、社会转型的实践背景和地理学“文化转向”、社会学“空间转向”的理论背景,空间生产为旅游地空间研究提供了新的重要视角,推动着旅游地空间研究范式的转型。在认识旅游地空间系统性的基础上,界定了空间涌现性的概念,提出了空间生产视角下的旅游地空间研究新范式。这一新范式主要表现在:① 新的空间研究视角,厘清旅游地空间生产研究的理论逻辑和学科理路;② 新的空间观,树立以内涵复杂性、尺度嵌套性、过程非守恒性为核心特征的新的旅游地涌现空间观,实现空间认识从要素到系统、从简单环境系统到过程系统再到复杂耦合系统的转变;③ 新的空间研究路径,更加注重社会空间、微观解构、尺度转换;④ 新的空间研究框架,遵循“过程-格局-机制”的研究路线,建立复杂系统涌现空间研究框架,开展多尺度、多类型旅游地空间生产的系统研究。空间生产视角下的旅游地空间研究范式转型,将有助于拓展旅游地理学研究视角和范式,增强旅游地理学对中国旅游发展实践的响应和指导。


    The new requirement for tourism geography has been proposed based on the practical background of China’s economic and social transformation and the theoretical background of the “cultural turn” in geography and the “spatial turn” in sociology. As the important evolution kernel of human-environment system in tourism destination, the production of space provides an important and new perspective for space research in tourism destination and would promote the paradigm transformation of space in tourism destination. Based on the recognition of systematization of space in tourism destination, the concept of emergence of space was defined, and a new paradigm of space in tourism destination from the perspective of production of space was proposed in this article. This new paradigm would be mainly manifested: 1) A new perspective for space research. The disciplinary context and theoretical logic of the research of production of space in tourism destination would be clarified; 2) A new space view. The new space view of emergence with the core characteristics of connotation complexity, scale nesting and non-conservation would be set up, and the cognition of space would be transformed from element to system and further from the simple environment system to the process system then to the complex coupling system; 3) A new approach of space research. More attention would be given to social space, microscopic dimension and scaling; 4) A new framework of space research. The research framework of emergence of complex space system would be founded based on the research route of “process-pattern-mechanism”, and the production of space in typical destinations with different scales and types would be studied systematically. The paradigm transformation of space in tourism destination from the perspective of production of space would develop the research perspective and paradigm of tourism geography and enhance the response and guidance of tourism geography to China’s tourism development.

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    中国经济空间格局演化与区域产业变迁——基于1952-2010年省区经济份额变动的实证分析
    孙铁山,刘霄泉,李国平
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 56-65.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.56
    摘要   HTML   PDF (676KB)

    从区域经济份额变化出发,分析了1952-2010年中国经济空间格局的演化过程。通过有序样本聚类的方法,将省区经济份额变动划分了8个阶段,并采用偏离-份额法分析了不同阶段驱动省区经济份额上升的产业及其变迁,以及与区域产业结构和竞争优势变化的关系。研究发现,1949年以来中国区域经济布局总体上经历了沿海-内地均衡发展、沿海化非均衡发展以及东、中、西部相对均衡发展的过程,且整体上区域经济份额变动趋于减小。1979年以前,不同区域的经济份额在不同阶段变化差异较大,主要由第一和第二产业驱动。1979年以后,区域经济格局呈现明显的沿海化趋势,但驱动产业在不同阶段有所变化。2001年以来,中国区域经济格局经历了重大调整,经济份额上升的省区明显由东部向中、西部地区转移。东部省区在第二产业上仍具有明显的结构优势,但第二产业竞争优势已由东部向中、西部地区转移。东部的北京、上海、广东在第三产业上呈现更加显著的结构优势,显示出结构升级和服务化的发展态势。


    Through analyzing the changes in economic shares of provinces in China from 1952 to 2010, we studied the evolution of China's spatial economy and regional industrial shift since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Previous studies mostly focused on the development of China’s spatial economy in the post-reform era, while our study used a long time series data set and tried to give the whole picture of the evolution of China’s spatial economy in almost 60 years. We divided the evolution of China's spatial economic pattern into eight phases by using the sequential sample cluster analysis, and then we applied the shift-share analysis to decompose the changes in economic shares of Chinese provinces and analyzed the industry that drove the increase of economic shares of provinces and its shift in different phases, as well as the relationship between the industrial shift and the changes in regional industrial mix and competitive advantages. Our findings showed that since the founding of the People's Republic of China, China's regional economy has experienced the balanced development of the coastal and interior regions, the unbalanced development with priority in the coastal areas, and the relatively balanced development among the eastern, central and western regions in general, at the same time, the average changes in economic shares of provinces tend to decrease over the phases. Before the economic reforms and the opening-up of China, economic shares of different regions in different phases changed dramatically and in different ways, which was mainly driven by the primary and secondary industries. After the economic reforms and the opening-up of China, the regional economy had shifted to the coastal areas evidently with the great increase of economic shares of the eastern and coastal provinces, while the industries that drove the increase of economic shares of coastal regions changed in different phases. Since 2000, China's regional economy has changed a lot, with the shift of regions with the increase of economic shares from the coastal provinces to the central and western provinces. Although the coastal areas still have the relatively high share of secondary industry in their industrial mix, the competitive advantages of secondary industry have shifted from the eastern areas to the central and western areas, which are indicated by the relatively higher growth rate of the secondary industry in the central and western provinces since 2000. Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong in the east have shown more advantages in the tertiary industry with more share of tertiary industry in their industrial mix, which shows the tendency of upgrading and servicisation of regional economy in these areas.

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    基于能力结构关系模型的区域协同创新研究
    范斐,杜德斌,游小珺,盛垒,肖泽磊
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 66-74.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.66
    摘要   HTML   PDF (609KB)

    根据区域协同创新能力结构的内涵,从知识创新能力、技术创新能力、产业创新能力、服务创新能力与创新环境能力5个方面构造了区域协同创新研究的指标体系。利用能力结构关系模型,测度1998-2011年中国省级区域的各项创新能力结构,从时空维度揭示不同区际创新能力结构的均衡与匹配程度,在此基础上,辨析不同省级区域在区际协同创新中获益效果的相对变化趋势及时空关联。结果表明:① 研究期内省级区域的创新能力都呈现上升趋势,但区域整体综合创新能力东、中、西阶梯分布的格局并没有改变,且地带间的综合创新能力差异有逐步扩大的趋势。② 省级区域创新能力结构耦合度网络发展具有显著的空间不平衡性,存在明显的空间分层现象与核心-边缘空间分异格局。③ 区域协同创新获益效果质量不高,区际协同创新获益值及获益比空间差异显著,但区际协同创新空间格局趋于稳定。


    According to the connotation of the structure of regional synergy innovation ability, this article constructed an index system of regional collaborative innovation study from 5 aspects, that is knowledge innovation, technological innovation, industrial innovation, service innovation ability and innovation enviroment ability. Using the relational model of ability structure, this article measured different kinds of innovation ability structure of 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2011, and revealed the balance degree and match degree of inter-regional innovation ability structure from space-time dimension, then on this basis, analyzed relatively change trend and space-time connection of benefits that different provinces received from inter-regional synergy innovation. The results showed that: 1) the provincial innovation capabilities were on the rise during the study period, but the distribution pattern of regional integrated innovation capability had not changed, still showed ladder-like distribution: higher in the east, lower in the west and intermediate in the central part of China, and the gaps between them had gradually expanded. 2) The scale, density and range of coupling network of regional innovation capability structure at provincial scale witnessed rapid progress and improvement, and the distribution of innovation capability kept optimizing. The development of coupling network of regional innovation capability structure on a provincial scale represented great imbalance in space, and there existed an obvious pattern of spatial stratification and core-periphery spatial differentiation. 3) The quality of benefits came from regional synergy innovation was not high, and although the value and ratio of the benefit gained from inter-regional synergy innovation was remarkably different among regions, the spatial pattern of regional synergy innovation was set to be stable. It is obvious that the areas with high regional synthetic innovation capability dominated in the regional synergy innovation during its cooperation with the areas with low regional synthetic innovation capability.

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    城市空间结构对惠州市中心城区交通事故影响的时间差异分析
    柳林,宋广文,周素红,陈建国,郑重,刘凯
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 75-83.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.75
    摘要   HTML   PDF (755KB)

    利用惠州的交通事故数据,结合惠州的土地利用类型及重要设施的分布数据来探讨城市空间结构对交通事故的影响,使用Kernel核心密度法定性探讨交通事故密度的时空变化,把土地类型及重要设施抽象化为点空间要素,建立对数线性回归模型定量讨论城市空间结构对城市交通事故影响的时间差异。分析结果表明,在各个时期惠城区商业用地对交通事故的影响均很显著;工作地和车站对交通事故的影响主要体现在交通流高峰及消散期2个时间段内,但影响程度比商业用地低;在交通流次高峰时,交叉口和工作地的交互作用容易导致事故的高发;城市空间结构通过聚集人流或影响人们的出行等方式对交通事故的发生产生影响。


    Nowadays, traffic accidents are key factors that influence the safety of residents′ travel, and the urban structure, represented by the land use and important facilities in this study, plays a rather essential role in the happening of traffic accidents. Figuring out the impacts of urban structure on traffic accidents can provide references for government policies and residents′ travel. However, the previous researches were rather qualitative or ignored the temporal characteristics of such spatial elements, which also failed to uncover the interacting effect between different spatial elements, and therefore it could not reveal the internal relations between spatial elements and urban traffic accidents. This study uses the Kernel Core Density method to discuss the spatio-temporal variation qualitatively by making use of the data of traffic accidents in Huizhou City. On this basis, it also adopts network-analysis unit to build a logarithm linear regression model to discuss the temporal disparity of spatial facilities’ influencing on urban traffic accidents, with a purpose to further reveal the spatio-temporal relations between traffic accidents and their influencing factors. The study reveals that the layout of commercial facilities has significant impacts on traffic accidents for the whole day. The impacts of workplaces and stations having on traffic accidents mainly show in and after traffic rush hours, but the influence degree is lower than those of commercial facilities. Besides, the interaction between intersections and workplaces more easily leads to the occurring of accidents in the sub-rush hours. Urban structure has impact on the occurrence of traffic accidents by aggregating people or changing the way people travel. The conclusion of this research contributes to enrich the study of the relationship between urban structure and traffic accidents. Moreover, it also can be a reference for other similar studies.

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    未来气候情景下气候变化响应过程研究综述
    成爱芳,冯起,张健恺,李宗省,王岗
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 84-90.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.84
    摘要   PDF (409KB)

    气候变化将会对生态系统、自然资源、极端气候和人类社会产生一定的影响,科学评估未来气候变化响应是应对气候变化的前提。通过对当前研究成果的回顾,建立未来气候情景下气候变化响应研究的系统思路,并总结了研究所涉及的方法。系统论述了应用第5阶段耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)气候模式前进行适用性评价的必要性;分析了当前降尺度方法尤其是统计降尺度的主要方法及进展;归纳了偏差校正过程中普遍使用的方法,最后,综合分析了整个研究过程中的不确定性。研究将为气候变化响应分析提供方法和思路指导。


    Global climate change will have great effects on ecological systems, natural resources, food security, climate extremes, cryosphere and the damage to human social living conditions. Scientific assessment of projected climate change impacts is a vital way for stakeholder and policymaker to adjust strategies at the local scale. Outline of contents and related methods and key issues are discussed for climate change impacts study on RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models by the summary of the current literatures. The article investigates the necessity of applicability evaluation before using the climate models from CMIP5 at the region and summarizes the methods applied to metric whether the model is reasonable to project the climate scenarios in the region. Downscaling methods that can bridge the gap between the coarse spatial resolution of global circulation model (GCM) and high resolution of climate variables are required for impacts evaluation at the local scale. The review introduces the fundamental principles and current main methods for downscaling climate variables, especially for statistical downscaling, and summarizes the latest progresses in this field. The GCM often show significant biases that include systematic model errors caused by imperfect conceptualization, discretization and spatial averaging within the grid cell. So bias correction methods are applied to remedy the biased output of GCM, RCM and downscaled them. We conclude with the commonly using bias correction method and recent development in this field. How to deal with uncertainties from GCM, downscaling method and bias correction is also a challenge for impact study. The article discusses the uncertainties in every step of the whole process. The review will provide the guideline for projection of climate change impacts in the region.

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    基于地貌单元的小区域地质灾害易发性分区方法研究
    唐川,马国超
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 91-98.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.91
    摘要   HTML   PDF (816KB)

    以汶川县城周边区域为研究区,分别以栅格单元与地貌单元作为单位评价单元,以信息量法与逻辑回归法两种评价模型对研究区进行地质灾害易发性评价分区。根据对评价结果的比较分析,在小区域范围内,基于地貌单元的区域易发性分区不仅仅能够更好地体现出区域内局部综合特性,而且评价分区结果与地质灾害实际分布情况更加吻合,分级层次更加明显,数学模型的适用效率很好。由此可见,在小范围区域内,基于地貌单元的地质灾害易发性评价分区具有良好的适用性与可塑性,在大比例尺地质灾害易发性和危险性制图中是一个有益的尝试与启发。


    The assessment of geological disasters mainly includes susceptibility assessment, hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment and risk assessment. The first two just reflect the geological disasters’ nature characteristics and theirs’ dangerous levels, what’s more, the remaining additionally describe geological disasters’ social characteristics and social potential losses on the basis of the first two. Actually, the susceptibility and hazard assessment could trace back to the 1970s, meanwhile, with the rapid development of GIS technology and high precision geotechnical physical model after 1990s, the research about geological disasters’ dangerous levels also step into a rapid development stage. On the whole, susceptibility assessment of geological disasters statically reflect the probability of geological disasters’ occurrence in view of the basic geological environmental conditions (internal control factors). On the other way, hazard assessment of geological disasters additionally takes external factors (time probability etc.) into account and responds the probability of geological disasters’ occurrence. Thus it can be seen that susceptibility assessment is the most fundamental research work in hazard or risk assessment and directly describes geological disasters’ inoculation situation. Nowadays, with the popularization and deepening of regional geological disaster risk assessment and zoning work, in view of small area, especially for small mountainous area or small populated area, the susceptibility assessment to geological disasters becomes increasingly urgent and important. Based on the above situation, this article takes Wenchuan County surrounding area as the study object, taking grid unit and geomorphic unit as evaluation unit, using information value method and logistic regression method to take an analysis on the susceptibility zoning. According to the results of comparative analysis, in a small area, susceptibility zoning with geomorphic unit not only can better reflect the local comprehensive characters, make the evaluation results more close to the actual geological disasters distribution, but could get clear hierarchical level, and more effective for the application of the mathematical model. The conclusions is: in a small area, it will have a good applicability and plasticity for the susceptibility zoning which is based on the geomorphic unit and it is a beneficial attempt and inspiration for the geological disasters susceptibility mapping in the large scale.

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    青海地区冬季气温年际变化及其成因分析
    王冀,申红艳,张英娟,王振宇
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 99-106.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.99
    摘要   HTML   PDF (835KB)

    利用青海地区38个台站(1961-2010年) 和Ncep再分析资料,分析了青海地区冬季气温年际变化特征及其形成机制。结果表明:青海地区冬季气温主要呈现出南北一致型和东西反相两种分布型。低温年时,中高纬呈“+ - +”波列,垂直方向呈准正压结构。WP与第一模态时间系数的相关最显著,其次是EU和PNA。冬季北大西洋南部地区海温通过激发欧亚波列影响欧亚大气环流;西风漂流区和黑潮区海温均对东亚冬季风有负反馈作用。在中部型El-Niño事件期间,青海地区易受偏西、偏北强冷气流影响,青海地区气温偏低。


    Interannual variation of temperature in winter over Qinghai and its mechanisms are analyzed using data(1961-2010) from 38 stations over the region as well as National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) reanalysis data. It unveiled that there exist two major temperature anomaly patterns in winter over Qinghai: unipole mode from north to south and dipole mode between east and west region. During cold winter a “+-+” wave train lay over mid-high latitude with a quasi-barotropic vertical structure. West Pacific index has the most prominent correlation with time coefficient of prime component 1, secondly, the Euro-Asian index and Pacific-North America index. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the south part of North Atlantic in winter may influence atmosphere circulations over Europe and Asian by setting off a Euro-Asian train. Besides, SSTA in both west wind drift and Kuroshio current region have a negative feedback to the East Asian winter monsoon. Also during an El Nino Modoki episode, moist warm air from low latitude transport northward no farther than East China, which make colder winter in Qinghai on account of strong westerly and boreal airflow.

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    黄土丘陵区地质灾害规模参数幂律相依性研究
    邱海军,曹明明,王雁林,郝俊卿,胡胜,高宇,刘琪
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 107-113.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.107
    摘要   HTML   PDF (442KB)

    对滑坡、崩塌和不稳定斜坡等地质灾害规模参数幂律相依性进行定量研究,拓展了规模参数之间幂律相依性的研究范围。研究结果发现:① 地质灾害规模参数的幂律相依性不仅存在于体积与面积之间,而且存在于面积与长、面积与宽等参数之间;② 幂指数可以作为间接反映区域地质灾害或者不同类型地质灾害的宏观特征表征谱;③ 体积与面积关系式的幂指数分布为不稳定斜坡>滑坡>崩塌;面积与长关系式的幂指数分布为崩塌>滑坡>不稳定斜坡。面积与宽关系式的幂指数的分布为滑坡>崩塌>不稳定斜坡。


    Landslides are significant natural hazards in many areas of the world.they often resulting in both human and material losses.A number of authors have argued that the power law is the symbol of self-organized critical state.Many empirical observations have shown that landslides caused by various triggers,including earthquakes,rainfall and rapid snowmelt,and are influenced by multiple factors,such as local and regional morphological and topography,soil and lithological setting,fractures and bedding planes and moisture content obey power law statistics.In this paper,we first collect information witch include volume,area,length,width,depth in a dababase of landslides,collapses and unstable slope. Based on the geological hazards, such as landslides, collapses and unstable slope, the power-law dependence was quantitative researched, explore the power law relationship between the scale parameter for the first time in domestic, and the research scope of scale parameter between power-law dependence was expanded.The results showed that: 1) Based on the detailed inventory,we model the empirical relationship adopting least square linear fit between area and volume was fitted to the empirical data which were log-transformed. We compare the new relationship to similar relationships in the literature and found that the exponent of power law about volume and area of geological disasters was between 0.88 and 1.95,this indicates that it has a similar trend under the log-log coordinate.The research prove that the power law correlation of geological disasters not only exist between volume and area scale parameters, it exists in the area between parameters such as length,area, and the width. 2) Estimating the volume of landslide,collapse and unstable slope in an area is an even more difficult and chanllenging task thal requires information on the surface and sub-surface geometry of slope.At present,we can adopting the empirical relationships to estimate the volume of landslides. Given landslide, collapse and slope instability parameters such as length, width, through the above a given formula can estimate the area and the volume. It was important to the geological hazard investigation and the understanding of the law; 3) Different power laws of geo-hazards depend on the different local geomorphological,topography and other conditions, the power exponent can also be used as a indirectly reflection of the regional geological disasters or macro features of different types of geological disasters; 4) The power exponent distribution between the volume and area were as follows: unstable slope>collapses>landslide; the area and length were as follows: collapse >landslide>unstable slope; the area and width showed the as follows: landslide>collapse> unstable slope. For the landslides and collapses, the power exponent distribution were as follows:the area and length> the area and width> the volume and area; And for unstable slope, the power exponent distribution were as follows: the volume and area >the area and length> the area and width.5) All these evidences suggested that the phenomenon of geological hazard seems disorderly and unsystematic, while it follows certain laws, which further show the unity and universality of our world. Researching power law has essential significance for us to improve the knowledge of geological disaster.

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    基于动力反演方法的亚洲季风机制探讨
    李玉霞,林振山,刘会玉
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 114-121.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.114
    摘要   HTML   PDF (569KB)

    为探求董哥洞石笋δ18O值所指示的亚洲季风的驱动机制,用非线性动力反演的方法建立亚洲季风的动力方程。研究发现:董哥洞石笋δ18O值所指示的季风为印度季风,印度季风系统是由南极温度和其他驱动因子共同驱动的复杂非线性动力系统;太阳活动、北极温度和青藏高原温度对印度季风起稳定作用,太阳活动越强烈,稳定作用越弱;北极温度和青藏高原温度越高,稳定作用越弱;印度季风背景值对下一刻印度季风起稳定作用,且强度越大,稳定作用也就越强。


    :The monsoon driving mechanism is a hot spot in the quaternary global change research, where the international academia has been paid close attention. As early as in 1686, Halley has put forward that the heat differences caused by the sun between the marine and terrestrial bring about the monsoon. With the deepening of the research, different driving factors are proposed one after another, such as the solar activity, the mechanical force and thermal effect of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, ENSO, the temperature of the south and north poles, the migration of the intertropical convergence zone, the thermohaline circulation and so on in which the solar activity and the thermohaline circulation are widely accepted. Cave stalagmites oxygen isotope is one of the most important high-resolution alternative indexes of palaeoclimate. Especially in the region strongly affected by the monsoon, the change of the values of stalagmite δ18O is often taken as the index of ancient monsoon intensity. The Asian monsoon is an important part of the global climate system. Usually the Asian monsoon can be divided into East Asia monsoon and Indian monsoon, but the two monsoon regions have no clear boundary. So it is hard to verdict which monsoon the stalagmite collected from this convergence zone represents. Dongge cave is just located in the convergence zone, as is mentioned above,and which monsoon the stalagmite δ18O value of Dongge Cave represents is still controversial. By means of the dynamic inversion analysis of the Asian monsoon, the following results are obtained: 1) The stalagmites δ18O value of Dongge Cave is more likely to represent the Indian monsoon. The Indian monsoon system is a complex nonlinear dynamic system driven by the Antarctic temperature and other factors. 2) The solar activity plays a negative feedback stabilizing role in the Indian monsoon system. The stronger the solar activity is, the weaker the stabilization role it plays will be. The temperature of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the North Greenland plays a negative feedback stabilizing role in the Indian monsoon system. The higher the temperature of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the North Greenland is,the weaker the stabilization role it will be. 3) The Indian monsoon’s strength depends on its strength of the former moment.

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    基于GIS技术的青海湖流域综合整治类型区划分及整治方向
    展秀丽,严平,谭遵泉
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (1): 122-128.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.01.122
    摘要   HTML   PDF (604KB)

    根据青海湖流域自然环境和生态系统特征,以2009年青海湖流域植被分布图为底图,结合DEM高程数据、青海湖流域草场类型图以及青海湖流域行政区划图,综合考虑青海湖流域海拔、植被分布以及社会经济等因素,采用ArcGIS软件对青海湖流域进行3级划分,在分区的基础上提出各类型区生态与环境治理的基本思路与方向,提出各类型区综合治理土地沙漠化、湿地萎缩和草地退化等生态与环境问题的途径与对策。


    On basis of characteristics of physical environment and ecological system in the Qinghai Lake Watershed, and with the vegetation distribution image in 2009 in the Qinghai Lake Watershed as working map, combing with DEM altitude data, grassland type in the Qinghai Lake Watershed, administrative map, we considered synthetically factors of altitude, vegetation distribution and social economy and so on, and did three-level partition on Qinghai Lake Watershed. Based on the partition, we put forward the basic ideas of managing the ecological and environmental problems in every partition, and ways and countermeasures of ecological and environmental problems for comprehensively managing desertification, wetland shrinkage and grassland degradation. Primary partition was divided into three level areas, which were lake plain, hilly area and high mountains; Secondary partition on the basis of the primary partition, divided into grassland, river valley area and sandy area; Three-level partition was mainly to partition the areas around Qinghai Lake, the area of arable land, the grassland, the wetland and the desertification land. In this research, the natural characteristics of each region were described. On the basis of the division we proposed the existing main problems and reasons, and put forward the comprehensive control methods to solve the ecological and environmental problems which were land desertification, grassland degradation and wetland shrinking. The comprehensive control methods were following: 1) We should strengthen the rational allocation water resources of Qinghai lake basin and ecological environment management to solve the problem of the water surface decline of the Qinghai lake; 2) For the shrinking of wetlands, vegetation degradation and other issues, should strengthen vegetation protection and recovery on the banks of the river wetland; 3) For excessive reclamation and lagging irrigation, should return farmland to forest and grass and vegetation restoration should be strengthened; 4) For the problems caused by some poisonous weeds on the grassland area, should grasp the characteristics of the poisonous weeds, avoid the poisonous weeds growing season, or choose non-sensitive livestock grazing; 5) In the sand area, moderate and light desertification area would need to management, should adopt mechanical and biological measures, the potential desertification areas need to be timely prevention, tall sand hill need not control, should keep natural desert landscape.

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