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CN 22-1124/P
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  • 地理科学
      2010年, 第30卷, 第5期 刊出日期:2010-09-20 上一期    下一期
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    论文
    基于城市化质量的中国城市化发展速度判定分析
    王德利, 方创琳, 杨青山, 李飞
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 643-650.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.643
    摘要   PDF (948KB)
    通过探析城市化发展质量的内涵,建立包括城市基础实力、城市化发展协调度、城市化发展可持续水平3个维度的31个指标体系及城市化发展质量评价模型、城市化发展"质"、"量"协调性测度模型,利用联合国法修正改革开放以来中国的城市化发展速度,根据1978~2008年相关统计数据及2008年各省最新统计数据,基于对城市化质量的测度,判定改革开放以来中国城市化发展速度及2008年省际城市化发展速度的适度性。研究结果表明,1978~2008年,中国城市化发展质量指数逐渐增大,城市化发展速度与质量的协调性渐好,城市化发展速度略显滞后;省际城市化发展质量指数差异明显,从东部、中部、西部依次降低,城市化发展类型可分为质量过度滞后型、质量滞后型、协调型、速度滞后型及速度过度滞后型5种类型;人口城市化水平并不能反映城市化发展质量的真实水平,城市规模与城市化质量亦不存在对应关系;中国城市化质量各个领域发展均衡性明显不足,城市基础实力是当前城市化发展质量提升的主要动力,省域城市化发展质量较高及"质"、"量"协调性较好的地区仍存在许多不足。
    After illuminating the connotation of urbanization quality, this paper constructed an index system comprised with 31 indicators, from three aspects including strength of urban infrastructure, coordination degree of urbanization and sustainable level of urbanization. On this basis, models of urbanization quality evaluation and coordination evaluation between urbanization "quality" and "quantity" were established. Using United Nations method, this paper amended the urbanization rate of China(excluding Hongkong, Macao and Taiwan) since the Reform and Opening Up, and then judged China's urbanization rate and moderation of inter-provincial urbanization speed of 2008 based on statistical data of 1978~2008 and latest statistics of each province in 2008. The results show that: ① Mass index of Chinese urbanization increased gradually from 1978 to 2008, and the coordination between urbanization speed and quality was getting better. But the speed of urbanization was slightly lagging behind. ② In 2008,China's inter-provincial urbanization indices were significant different,turning lower from the eastern, central to western. Urbanization in China can be divided into five types: serious quality lag- type, quality lag- type,coordination- type,speed lag-type,and serious speed lag-type. ③ Population can't reflect the real level of urbanization quality. And corresponding relationship between city scale and quality of urbanization didn't exist, which means it's not correct that larger city was better in quality. ④ Balance of Chinese urbanization quality in each aspect was obviously insufficient. Urban foundation strength was the main driving force of improving urban quality currently. Assuredly, there were still many insufficiencies in those areas where provided with high quality of urbanization development or better coordination between speed and quality.
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    中国风电减排CO2的成本测算及其时空分异
    李红强, 王礼茂
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 651-659.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.651
    摘要   PDF (490KB)
    以风电并网利用为主的风能资源快速开发和利用已产生了显著的能源替代、CO2减排和推动地区经济发展等良性效应,开展中国风电减排CO2成本测算及其时空分异的探究对于准确认识风能在能源系统中地位、明确风电发展方向和制定应对气候变化对策具有重要作用。在明确风电电价测算方法和构建风电减排CO2成本测算模型的基础上,通过对当前中国典型风电项目技术经济数据的收集和分析以及通过学习曲线模型分析,测算了不同风能等级区、不同省份不同时期的中国风电减排CO2成本。结果表明,在当前水平下,中国在风能极丰富区、丰富区、较丰富区、一般区、贫乏区风电减排CO2的成本分别为120元/t、182元/t、243元/t、367元/t、737元/t;不同省份减排成本差异很大,最高值和最低值分别为783元/t和39元/t,且呈现出沿海省份减排成本低于内陆省份,减排成本空间分布与风能资源存在一定错位的现象。在2008~2050年期间,中国风电减排CO2成本呈持续下降趋势,预计在2020年风电开始具备与常规火电竞争的能力。
    Taking wind power integration as mainstream development style, China has played an important role in substituting fossil energy, reducing CO2 emission and promoting regional economy through rapid wind resource exploration and utilization in recent years. Aiming at having a better understanding of wind power status in energy system, classifying future direction of wind power and establishing countermeasures against climate change, it is crucial to calculate the cost of CO2 emission reduction by wind power and study its temporal and spatial differentiation in China. First, this paper presented the calculation method of wind power price and then established the calculation model of CO2 emission reduction cost by wind power. Second, the CO2 emission reduction costs in different wind resource grading areas, different provinces were measured by conducting the above model and using preliminary collected and analyzed technical and economic data of wind power project. Third, CO2 emission reduction costs in 2008~2050 were also studied by forecasting wind power installation capacity and initial investment, which were predicted by using learning curve model. The result showed that the costs of CO2 emission reduction by wind power in extremely abundant region, abundant region, relatively abundant region, general region and deficient region equaled to 120 Yuan/t, 182 Yuan/t, 243 Yuan/t, 367 Yuan/t and 737 Yuan/t, respectively. The costs varied drastically in different provinces. The highest cost is 783 Yuan/t, while the lowest is 39 Yuan/t. Since coastal provinces have richer wind resources and lower costs, the spatial distribution of CO2 emission reduction costs does not fit wind resource very well. The cost will gradually decreased during 2008~2050 and China’s wind power will be attractive against conventional thermal power in 2020 according to our prediction.
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    城市群空间范围的综合界定方法研究——以长株潭城市群为例
    陈群元, 宋玉祥
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 660-666.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.660
    摘要   PDF (693KB)
    以城市综合实力代替城市人口或城市经济总量,结合主成分分析法,对传统的引力模型进行改进,得出了基于引力模型的长株潭城市群空间范围界定,并对引力模型本身的局限性进行了分析。针对城市群系统的本质特征是内部存在密切的生产要素流,进一步得出了基于要素流分析法的长株潭城市群空间范围界定。最后,综合这两种界定方法,得出了理论上的长株潭城市群空间范围,并与政府划定的长株潭城市群空间范围进行对比,发现政府划定的城市群空间范围要大于理论计算的城市群空间范围。考虑到城市群的地域邻近性特征,以及政府对城市群发展的推动作用,对长株潭城市群中远期的空间范围进行了预测。
    Dividing the boundary of urban agglomerations is not only a theory problem, but also a practice problem in the course of planning and construction of urban agglomerations. In this paper, firstly, the improved gravity model by combining the method of main composition analysis and the comprehensive strength of cities is used to primarily divide the boundary of Chang-zhu-tan urban agglomeration. The end and the limitations of using gravity model to divide the boundary of urban agglomerations are analyzed and discussed, too. some errors between the theory end and the real status are easily caused because of the limitations of gravity model itself, for example, the location of gravity breaking point is easily disturbed by the city administrative area shapes, etc. So, some else methods must be used to rectify the boundary of Chang-zhu-tan urban agglomerations. Taken into account production elements flow are the most base feature of urban agglomerations system, the analyses of production elements flow between the different cities are used as the method to further divide the boundary of Chang-zhu-tan urban agglomeration, including the information flows and the passengers flows about the different cities in Hunan Province are fully analyzed. Finally, the current boundary of Chang-zhu-tan urban agglomeration is divided by synthesizing the two methods, and the neighborhood feature of urban agglomerations and the acting force of governments to urban agglomerations also are thought over to predict the future boundary of Chang-zhu-tan urban agglomeration.
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    基于复杂网络理论的中美原油进口空间格局演进比较
    王肇钧, 程淑佳, 于国政
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 667-672.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.667
    摘要   PDF (340KB)
    依据中美原油进口源地数据,运用网络分析法,比较了中美原油进口贸易空间结构的演化轨迹与特征。研究表明,相同的认知活动使两国的原油进口策略取向变得一致。1993年后,美中原油进口来源国数量有着几乎相同的增长趋势;但美国原油进口权重基本趋于平稳,中国原油进口权重基本处于上升通道中,同时中美贸易联系不仅存在强度上的差异,分区域的强度次序也存在重大差异;美国原油进口空间格局的权重熵经历了由高到低的演变,权重熵的比较揭示出1993年之后中国原油进口系统有序性要低于美国。以上结果表明追求多元化不应以均质化为目标,不同的主体要依据各自所面临的客观环境选择适合自己的区域合作伙伴,才能更好的落实多元化进口策略,切实解决可能面临的石油供给危机。
    With the yearly increase of crude oil import of China, the safety issues of import have become more prominent. The strategy of diversification of import channels has been considered the primary solution to overcoming safety issues. However, the adoption of diversification strategy premises a thorough analysis and understanding of the importing strategy of other countries in advance. This paper employed the complex network method and evaluated the degree, weight, and entropy of China versus United States in the network of crude oil import and revealed the evolving mechanism of the degree, weight, and standard entropy. Analysis of a regional comparison was also carried out to highlight the difference of crude oil sources between China and United States. Conclusions were drawn as follows. First,identical cognition causes consistent policy making. Diversifying strategy has been a common option to both China and United States. Since 1993, the patterns of crude oil import of both China and United States have demonstrated similar tendency of change in the quantity of trade partners. Second,since 1993, China and United States have been quite distinct in the weighted pattern of trading business. The weight of crude oil import network of United States is generally stable, while that of China presents a trend of rapid growth. In the mean time, the weight of United States is remarkably more than that of China. Furthermore, in the aspect of sub-region's weight, the crude oil import of United States is more dependent on relatively safer countries in North America, e.g. Canada and Mexico, rather than unrest Middle East.Third,The weighted entropy of the crude oil import network of United States experienced a transition from large to small, while China generally maintained a larger value. Comparison of these two entropy parameters from China and United States indicates that the level of maintaining orderliness in the crude oil import network is much higher in United States than that in China. In addition it reminds that diversification does not necessarily mean homogenization. The distribution of a country's trading partnership depends on its individual and specific trading environment, which is virtually the essential to carry out the strategy of diversification.
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    城市路网中基于空间分析的典型行车路线研究——以杭州市为例
    董红召, 周敏, 陈宁, 郭明飞
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 673-678.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.673
    摘要   PDF (809KB)
    城市交通中,交通管理部门需要动态掌握群体性的出行规律,其获取方法亟待解决。为此,基于交通流的空间分析,提出了一种能够描述群体性动态出行规律的典型行车路线理论。在对交通流进行空间数据挖掘和动态OD("O"起始点,"D"目的地)分析的基础上,通过行车路线中热点路口的生成、备选路线的追踪获取以及可选路线的模糊聚类分析,从而获得能够表征群体性动态出行规律的城市交通典型行车路线。最后,以杭州市交通路网为例,开发了典型行车路线智能获取系统并进行了实验验证,结果表明,典型行车路线理论及其算法能够较真实地描述城市路网中群体性的动态出行规律,为交通部门的交通控制与诱导、公交路线规划等提供了决策参考。
    It is significant for the urban traffic administration to obtain the dynamic travel regularity of colony vehicles with the same or similar route. Unfortunately, there is no such an efficient method yet. To solve the issue,considering the traffic route linked by nodes including tiny traffic zones and traffic intersections, the typical colony route theory based on Spatial Analysis is proposed to describe the travel regularity of colony vehicles. Furthermore an algorithm to acquire the typical colony route is researched based on dynamic Origin-Destination (OD) analysis. Firstly, by means of the statistic of spatial traffic flow parameters collected by GPS or shooting-identifying device deployed at the road intersections, the hot traffic spots can be hunted. Accordingly, the candidate routes can be traced by calculating the occupancy proportion of the routes concerning these hot traffic spots. Secondly, resorting to fuzzy clustering of traffic intersections during the analyzing course of the similar candidate routes, the tiny zone nodes and the colony-route set can be obtained. At last, the typical colony route containing traffic intersections and tiny traffic zones can be generated by sorting the colony-route set. Finally, based on the proposed typical colony route theory coupled with the algorithms, the software is developed to hunt for typical colony route automatically. Take the experimental traffic grid in Hangzhou City as an example, two typical colony routes is successfully acquired. According to the result of manual static OD investigating and manual statistical surveying, both typical colony routes are in accordance with the real travel regularity. Comparing with the previous manual methods, the proposed solution does not only demonstrate better performance in efficiency but also be able to reflect the dynamic route regularity of vehicle colony travel just in good time at urban district. The research could facilitate the urban traffic administration to adopt proper countermeasure to eliminate traffic jam and traffic trip pressure. Referring to the dynamic travel regularity of colony vehicles, the urban traffic administration could publish the traffic navigation message concerning the whole typical colony route at the route’s key intersection, and improve the deployment of the bus station or the route plan of urban public bus.
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    空间依赖、空间异质与京津冀都市地区经济收敛
    董冠鹏, 郭腾云, 马静
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 679-685.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.679
    摘要   PDF (1172KB)
    基于探索性空间数据分析技术(ESDA)划分出京津冀都市地区的中心区域和外围区域,并在传统经济收敛模型基础上,运用空间俱乐部收敛模型和局部空间回归模型对京津冀都市地区经济收敛情况进行研究。结果表明,首先,京津冀都市地区已形成了以北京、天津和唐山为核心的中心区域和以张家口市、保定市为核心的环绕京津的外围区域,京津冀都市地区整体上存在微弱的经济收敛。其次,京津冀都市地区中心地区由于经济发展水平较高,空间外溢效应较大,加之中心地区接受知识、技术扩散的能力较强,存在经济收敛,并且收敛速度较快,而外围区域则不存在经济收敛。再次,中心地区和外围地区内部存在经济收敛系数结构的不稳定性。
    The aim of this paper is to illustrate that spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity do matter in the estimation of the β-convergence process on a sample of 140 county-level regions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region(BTHMR) over the 2001-2007 period. As of the problem of spatial autocorrelation, spatial econometric tools such as spatial error model and spatial lag model were used. Concerning spatial heterogeneity, two methods are adopted, one of which is the spatial error spatial regimes model was estimated, the other is the GWR (geographically weighted regression) model estimated with Bayesian methods due to spatial heteroskedasticity and spatial outliers. Two spatial regimes, interpreted as spatial convergence clubs or core-periphery spatial pattern, are defined using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis. Based on these techniques, several conclusions are draw as follows:① The estimation of Getis-Ord statistics shows that there has evolved a distinct core-periphery spatial structure. The core areas include Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan mainly, while the periphery areas include mainly Zhangjiakou and Baoding, which are surrounding Beijing and Tianjin. ② The estimation of appropriate spatial regimes spatial error model shows that indeed the convergence process is different across the two regimes. As a matter of fact, there is no such a convergence process for the periphery regions, which surround Beijing and Tianjin; however, the core regions have a statistically significant β-convergence, and the speed of convergence associated with this estimation is 5.3% (the half-life is 13.2 years), far above 2% usually found in the convergence literature. The reason is that the spatial spillover effect among core areas is very large, and they are more similar in economic structure and have more proficient labors, better industrial infrastructure, making them easier to absorb the knowledge and technology spillovers.③ There also exists spatial structure instability inside the two spatial regimes on the β coefficient indicated by the GWR models estimated by Bayesian methods. Specifically, some of the core areas such as most counties of Beijing do not show β-convergence due to the special political status of Beijing, while most counties of Zhangjiakou have a statistical significant β-convergence. On one hand, the findings of the spatial regimes spatial error model are not contradictory with the results of the GWR model. The GWR model is designed to investigate the absolute spatial heterogeneity while the spatial regimes spatial error model is designed to explore the relative spatial heterogeneity which is on the assumption that areas in the same spatial regime are homogenous. On the other hand, the results of the GWR model is almost the same as the findings of the spatial regimes spatial error model indicating the findings from the spatial regimes spatial error model are robust. ④ With the appropriate spatial regimes spatial error model, this paper simulates the spatial spillover effect in BTHMR through random positive shocks to Tangshan in the core area and Quyang county of Baoding in the periphery area. The results show that there is a clear spatial pattern of the magnitude of spatial spillover effect which conforms to the law of geographical attenuation.
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    能源足迹改进方法及其在区域能源利用效益分析评价中的应用
    方恺, 董德明, 沈万斌
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 686-692.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.686
    摘要   PDF (415KB)
    在分析和总结能源足迹传统方法及其研究进展的基础上,从系统论和物质流分析的角度,通过净初级生产力将能源足迹与生物生产性土地变化相结合,提出了能源足迹改进方法,并据此构建了能源利用效益综合评价框架。以吉林省为例,分析和评价了1999~2008年的能源足迹和能源利用效益。结果显示,吉林省人均能源足迹从0.249 hm2/人增至0.524 hm2/人,且与人均GDP在年均增速上显著相关(R2=0.7574,p<0.05);能源足迹构成中,比例最高的煤炭足迹从68.40%增至74.99%,而石油、电力和天然气足迹均有不同程度下降;同期能源足迹强度从0.387 hm2/万元降至0.221 hm2/万元,能源足迹弹性系数从0.059增至0.558,并呈近似周期性波动,能源足迹压强从0.348增至0.759。结果表明,过去10a来吉林省能源利用效益有所提高,但生态环境压力也在增大。今后较长一段时期内,吉林省能源足迹增长将逐渐放缓甚至下降,能源利用效益会有较大幅度提升。
    Based on the analysis and summary of traditional energy ecological footprint (EEF) method and its research progress home and abroad, a modified EEF method is proposed by combining EEF with the change of biological productive lands from a standpoint of system theory and material flow analysis, and hereby an assessment framework of energy utilization benefit (EUB) is constructed. Taking Jilin Province as an example, this paper analyzes and evaluates the EEF and EUB respectively. The results show that from 1999 to 2008, EEF per capita has increased from 0.249 hm2 to 0.524 hm2, being a significant correlation with GDP per capita in average annual growth rate (R2=0.7574, p<0.05). Among the components of EEF, the percentage of coal footprint has increased from 68.40% to 74.99%, while the percentages of footprints of oil, electricity and natural gas all decreases at different degree. Meanwhile, the intensity of EEF has decreased from 0.387?10-4 hm2/yuan to 0.221?10-4 hm2/yuan, the elastic coefficient of EEF which has increased from 0.059 to 0.558 shows an periodic fluctuation basically, and the pressure of EEF has increased from 0.348 to 0.759. It is indicated that with the improvement of energy utilization benefit in Jilin in the past 10 years, the pressure of eco-environment has been getting increasingly bigger. However, in the following several years, it is likely that the growth rate of EEF will gradually reach a low and even falling standard, and the energy utilization benefit will largely promote in a relatively long period.
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    居民对2010年广州亚运会影响的感知变化研究——基于事件举办前视角
    罗秋菊
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 693-701.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.693
    摘要   PDF (432KB)
    现有大多数研究是从"反馈问题(reactive)"的视角出发研究事件活动发生之后的影响结果。将研究重心转向大型事件发生之前的规划和管理阶段,以积极的"未雨绸缪(proactive)"视角审视大型事件重要的利益相关者——居民的感知变化具有重要意义。在广州亚运会举办前,先后相隔5.5个月对居民进行调研,研究显示,随着举办时间的推近,居民对大型事件的影响感知也随之发生变化。主要的变化表现一是居民对大型事件关注度增加,居民作为东道主的自我存在感有增强之势;二是居民对大型事件的感知由无形影响逐渐转化为有形影响;三是居民对大型事件的社会成本的感知越来越强烈,对经济成本和社会公共利益的感知减弱,同时对社区利益的感知有逐渐增强之势;四是居民对事件的态度越来越理性,对负面影响的关注有增强之趋势。
    Current researches have studied the influence of an event from a "reactive" perspective after the occurrence of an event. This research shifts the focus to the planning and management phases of large-scale events from a "proactive" perspective and studies how residents, important stakeholders of large-scale events, change their perceptions. The researcher conducted this study over one year before the Guangzhou Asian Games, investigated residents' perceptions successively separated by five and a half month and studied the changes of residents' perceptions towards large-scale sports events. Main conclusions are as follows: ①As the time draws nearer, residents pay more attention to the large-scale event, realize their role of host, and their sense of existing increases; ②As the time draws nearer, residents' perceptions towards the large-scale event turn from tangible effect to intangible effect; ③As the time draws nearer, residents' perceptions towards social cost of the large-scale event becomes stronger, but their perceptions towards economic cost and social benefits becomes weaker, meanwhile, their perceptions towards community benefits gradually grows stronger; ④As the time draws nearer, residents' attitudes towards the event are becoming more and more rational.
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    长江三角洲地区城市空间扩展研究
    王磊, 段学军
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 702-709.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.702
    摘要   PDF (650KB)
    城市化是建设用地扩展的主要驱动因素,分析建设用地时空演化格局已成为学者研究城市化过程的重要视角。采用空间自相关等方法,测度了1985年以来长江三角洲地区城市空间扩展的集聚特征并分析其演变过程;并结合格网建设用地密度频率的变化特点,将空间划分为不同的景观梯度地带,以此研究城市空间在不同地带中的扩展特点。研究结果表明,长三角城市空间扩展聚集程度先降后升,城市化区域融合趋势明显,并在城市空间扩展中表现出以上海、南京和苏州等为代表的3种模式,反应了长三角内部不同的经济发展特点。此外,在不同景观梯度下,长三角城市空间扩展表现出典型的阶段性特征。2000年以前在各个景观梯度下城市空间扩展差异较小,表现为较强的拓展性扩展;2000年以后,在城市核心区扩展强度加强,表现为填充式扩展加快。同时,城乡过渡区面积增加迅速,表明随着城市空间扩展的加速,长江三角洲地区城市土地不集约利用现象已较为突出。
    The Yangtze River Delta is one of the most developed areas in China. Since the Reform and Open up, this area has experienced dramatic changes in urbanization. In the process of urbanization and industrialization, a large number of agricultural land has transferred to built-up areas for industrial and urban development in Yangtze River Delta, especially in the outskirt of the large cities and the county-level cities which experienced rapid economic and population growth. The construction land was interpreted from the Landsat TM satellite images and acquired in 4 periods of 1985, 1995, 2000 and 2007, which was used as a major index to study the spatio-temporal characters of expansion on urbanization area. By the GIS and RS based study, it was found that the urban spatial sprawl agglomeration (Global Moran’s I) decreased at first from the year 1985 to 2000, then it began to rise. This fluctuation had a strong link to the political and economic development in Yangtze River Delta and China. After detecting the global sprawl agglomeration, many local "hot spots" of urban spatial sprawl were also found as the time went by. From the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, the main path of that "hot spots" transferred was studied and three models of urban area sprawl in the 16 cities of Yangtze River Delta are found. They are Shanghai model, which represents the multi-central urban area sprawl. Nanjing mode, which represents the strong single-core urban area sprawl, and Suzhou model, which represents the multi-core (in different scale) urban area sprawl. On the other hand, after statistics the density of construction land in every grid and their proportion changes along the urbanization gradient, the threshold was established to divide the core urban area, urban-rural fringe and rural area in Yangtze River Delta, computing the expansion strength of construction land in every gradient. With those methods, some phenomenon is also found that, before the year of 2000 agricultural land was increasingly turned into urban-rural fringe because of the land was not used sufficiently and little difference of expansion strength among construction land in the three areas. After 2000, the difference is significant, construction land sprawl more active as the urbanization gradient increased.
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    国家名义之下的旅游资源垄断与产权困境——以从化温泉风景区为例
    李鹏, 保继刚
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 710-716.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.710
    摘要   PDF (388KB)
    旅游资源的公共物品问题在地理学制度转向的背景下受到西方学者的广泛关注,旅游资源的国家所有制及其近30 a经历的市场化改革使得中国的旅游资源问题别具特色。以温泉资源为例,借助对从化温泉风景区这一典型案例地的深度剖析,采用深度访谈、文献分析和实地考察等定性研究方法探讨国家所有的旅游资源在开发过程中屡遭破坏的原因。研究结果表明,温泉资源的开采权分配格局形成于计划经济时代,在市场化改革进程中资源的产权依旧被多家半官方企业所垄断,各家企业在追求个人利益最大化的过程中,使当地的温泉资源变成了国家名义之下的公地,并因此导致了温泉资源过度开采的后果。地方政府在这种旅游资源管控格局中丧失了指导地方发展的主动权,并成为舆论与上级责难的对象,但当其试图走出这一产权不清导致的困境时受制于至上而下的行政体制而举步维艰。
    The study of tourist resources as public goods has been a topic that draws wide attention in Geography in western world. Along with the market reform over 30 years, the management of state-owned resources in China has manifested itself some unique characteristics. The reform of mineral resources management is reshaping the hot spring destinations in mainland China. In the last two decades, a number of studies have examined the ambiguous property rights of tourism resources. Few lights, however, are shed on the implication of resource reform upon hot spring destination in China. Taking Conghua hot spring resort as an example, this paper mainly targets on the analysis of geographical features as well as the underlying operating mechanism of state-owned resources. By adopting qualitative approach which includes field survey and semi-structured interviews, the main findings of the paper are as follows. First, it is found that the spread of hot spring tourist facilities is based on the over-use of the hot spring resource. Such abuse of hot spring resources has already resulted in geothermal resource shrinking. The low-efficient development of the hot spring resources in Conghua is due to the low price made by informal oligopoly and extra profit that can be gained from hot spring tourism. If the exploitation rights of hot spring resources were controlled by multiple semi-public enterprises, the local hot spring resources would become 'the Commons'. In pursuit of the maximization of personal benefit, the over-exploitation of state-owned resources is inevitable. Under such condition, the local government loses the control of the development of resources and has been put into the dilemma. On the one hand, it has been criticized by its upper supervision government. On the other, when local government endeavors to clarify the property rights and implement unified management, this innovation is constrained by the top-down administrative system.
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    图们江地区区域承载力动态变化研究
    吕弼顺, 程火生, 朱卫红
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 717-722.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.717
    摘要   PDF (302KB)
    利用区域承载力计算方法,建立了图们江地区区域承载力的评价指标体系,依据2000~2008年的统计资料,对图们江地区的区域承载力进行了横向和纵向分析,并建立预测模型对图们江地区的区域承载力进行动态预测。结果表明,图们江地区在2000~2008年并没有出现超载,区域承载力比吉林省和全国的平均水平低,区内8个县市的区域承载力存在较大的差距,预测认为2020年以后图们江地区将出现超载。这些结果表明图们江地区的发展存在潜在的不可持续发展的因素。
    Tumen River Area, an eastern triangle-border area of Jilin Province adjacent to Russia and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, is abundant in natural resources and has locational advantages in its development, where is an economically and politically sensitive area to China who hopes an peace development. As China's government has decided to develop this area as a part of strategic development for Northeast China, a sound and stable development would become especially important domestically. Based on the previous studies, this study focused on the issue of the sustainable development in this area, useing calculation method of regional carrying capacity and setting up an evaluation indicator system of regional capacity in this area. In terms of vertical and horizontal analysis according to statistical data from 2000 to 2008, a new predictive model has been set up for understanding the regional carrying capacity of this area, especially for the prediction of further dynamic variation of this area. The results showed that the regiona carryingl capacity of Tumen River Area in the period of 2000-2008 has not been overloaded, lower than the other areas of Jilin Province and the average of the whole country. Meanwhile, there are relatively large differences in regional carrying capacity within 8 cities and counties of this area, and it is predictable that the regional carrying capacity of this area would overload after 2020. This would be the important influencing factor for potential unsustainable development of this area.
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    基于空间模型和CA的城市用地扩展模拟研究——以大庆市为例
    高玉宏, 张丽娟, 李文亮, 刘栋, 陈红
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 723-727.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.723
    摘要   PDF (470KB)
    基于ArcGIS空间分析建模工具,将城市发展适宜性模块、邻域影响模块、约束影响模块、随机影响模块进行集成,实现CA模型的构建,并以大庆市为例对城市建设用地未来发展进行模拟。研究认为:(1) 将GIS空间分析和CA模型集成,模型结构清晰,避免二次程序开发;(2) 根据大庆市特点,考虑资源开发因素对城市发展的影响和人口增长对随机因素的影响;(3) 大庆市2015、2020年城市面积将继续扩展,城市重心将明显向北移动,并具有向东移动的趋势。
    Using the spatial model construction tool in ArcGIS, this paper developed an urban expansion simulation model based on logistic regression and cellular automata (CA). This model consists of four modules, including a suitability module, a neighborhood effect module, a constraint effect module, and a random effect module. This model was applied to Daqing City, Heilongjiang to simulate its urban growth. In particular, this model was developed based on the historical urban land use data, calibrated using the reference map of 2000, and applied to simulating the urban expansion of Daqing City in 2015 and 2020. Analysis of results suggests several conclusions. Firstly, the developed CA urban expansion model using the model builder of ArcGIS has a clear modeling structure. It is easy to implement and avoids the burden of further programming. Secondly, according to the specific characteristics of Daqing, this model successfully examined the impact of petroleum industry on urban development and the influence of population growth on random factors. Finally, modeling results indicate that Daqing City will continue to expand in 2015 and 2020, and the urban center will shift toward north, with an eastward trend.
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    区域主体功能区规划模型、方法和应用研究——以京津地区为例
    张晓瑞, 宗跃光
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 728-734.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.728
    摘要   PDF (397KB)
    通过分析国家"十一五"规划中关于区域主体功能区划分的原则要求,将关键自然资本不能减少的强可持续发展生态阈值理论与区域综合生态价值观相结合,受经典力学定律启发,构建了区域主体功能区规划的"承载力-潜力-压力-阻力"模型,提出了计算区域空间开发所受合力的方法,得到了区域主体功能区的综合划分指数,根据规划空间单元综合划分指数的大小实现4类主体功能区地划分,解决了目前区域主体功能区规划中的开发类和保护类的阈值确定这一技术难点。以京津地区为实证,根据对未来发展决策导向的预期,应用区域主体功能区规划模型和方法实现了京津地区4类主体功能区地划分,获得了良好的应用效果。
    According with the principles of regional major functional zoning proposed by national "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" and inspired by classical laws of mechanics,the paper constructs the planning model of regional major functional zones by combining the ecological threshold theory of strong sustainable development with the regional integrated ecological values. That is the "capacity - potential - pressure - resistance" model. Based on the planning model, the method of the regional spatial development forces suffered was put forward learned from the idea of cost-benefit analysis. By constructing an integrated planning index (IPI), it can solve the technical difficulty which is the threshold determined in development class and protection class in the current major functional zones planning. So, it will achieve a scientific plan of four major functional zones. Finally, the paper puts the model and method into the major functional zones planning in Beijing-Tianjin region. The results are consistent with the objective reality of Beijing-Tianjin region and the effect of application is satisfactory.
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    1998~2008年中国东部沿海植被覆盖变化特征
    侯西勇, 应兰兰, 高猛, 毕晓丽, 路晓, 朱明明
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 735-741.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.735
    摘要   PDF (571KB)
    基于1998~2008年的SPOT-VGT数据,利用CVA、一元线性回归、Hurst指数等方法分析中国东部沿海植被覆盖变化特征及趋势,并编制植被覆盖退化特征图谱。研究表明:植被覆盖总体呈上升趋势,高变化和中变化区比例合计达26.23%;与此同时,退化区也大量分布;植被覆盖变化的自相似性和长程依赖性突出,区域尺度Hurst指数高达0.84,增长趋势可持续,像元尺度Hurst指数普遍较高,但空间格局比较复杂;未来植被覆盖趋于恶化的面积约占10.58%,三大都市圈及部分海岸带区域严重退化并将持续退化,众多中小城市周边中度退化并将持续退化。
    The character and trends of vegetation cover change in China’s eastern coastal areas during 1998-2008 has been studied based on the SPOT-VGT data and MVC method, Change Vector Analysis(CVA), linear regression, Hurst index and Spatial Analysis techniques. And the degradation map of vegetation cover has been mapped on the 1 km2 spatial scale. It showed that: (1) The vegetation cover greatly increased between 1998 and 2008, and prominently, before and after 2003, there were two different temporal stages. (2) The CVA for the 10-year scale showed that areas with mid-high to high degree of vegetation type change amounted to 26.23% of the whole study area, and areas with high degree mainly included the joint part of Shandong Province and Hebei Province, the northwestern part of Jiangsu Province, the Shanghai metropolitan area, the eastern coastal zone of Taiwan island, the mid-part of Hainan island and some parts of Guangdong Province and Guangxi Province. The comparison of CVA for the two 5-year periods showed that the density and extent of vegetation cover change between 1999 and 2003 was much acute than that between 2004 and 2008. (3) Although the improved area of vegetation cover was widely spread, there were areas where vegetation cover had degenerated markedly between 1998 and 2008, such as the three metropolitan areas and the mountainous areas in Zhejiang Province and Fujian Province. (4) There was evident self-similarity and long-range dependence of vegetation cover change, and the Hurst index of the whole study area amounted to 0.8437, which indicated that the increase of the vegetation cover would show distinct sustainability in the future. The Hurst index matrix calculated on the 1 km2 cell scale was high generally, and its spatial patterns were very complex. For example, the areas with low values of Hurst index include the northern part of Jiangsu Province, the mid-western part of Guangxi Province, the southern part of Hebei Province, the northeasterm part of Liaoning Province and the southwestern part of Shandong Province, which indicated that the change directions of vegetation cover would show anti-sustainability. (5) The degradation map of vegetation cover showed that 10.58% of the whole study area would be the key areas that vegetation cover will go on degenerating in the future.
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    区域景观破碎化的多尺度空间变异研究——以贵州省乌江流域为例
    高江波, 蔡运龙
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 742-747.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.742
    摘要   PDF (424KB)
    有效揭示景观格局及其空间变异特征是研究景观功能和动态的基础。选择贵州省乌江流域为案例区,基于土地利用分类数据,采用GIS、景观格局分析和地统计学软件,探讨了该区景观破碎化的空间格局、变异特征及其尺度依存性。结果表明:景观破碎化空间变异与研究幅度呈现非常明显的幂率关系,且具有4 590 m的特征尺度。景观破碎化呈现一定的空间分布格局。结构性因素引起的空间变异起主要作用,参数呈现显著的空间自相关,数据序列较复杂。东北-西南方向和东-西方向上的分形维数较大,空间自相关距离较短。
    Effectively revealing landscape pattern and its spatial heterogeneity are basic for researches of landscape function and dynamic. Based on the land use classification data, this paper explored the spatial pattern, spatial heterogeneity and its scale-dependence for effective mesh size using ArcGIS 9.3, FRAGSTATS 3.3 and GS+7.0, with a case study of Wujiang River Basin in Guizhou Province, China. The results show that the relation between spatial heterogeneity of landscape fragmentation and extent exhibits significant power law with a characteristic scale of 4590 m. The regions with lower values of effective mesh size are the northeast mountain-hill area, the west of central hill-basin area and the north of west plateau-mountain area, which possess the similar characteristic of dissected topography; the regions with higher values of effective mesh size are the east of central hill-basin area and the north of west plateau-mountain area with comparatively subdued topography. The structural components such as topography and climate play the main role in the spatial heterogeneity; the data series is complex due to the influences of topography, climate, and human activities, and exhibits significant spatial auto-correlation with range of 33 km. The fractal dimensions are bigger, and the auto-correlation scales are smaller in the directions of northeast-southwest and east-west than the north-south and southeast-northwest directions. Isotropic heterogeneity and anisotropic heterogeneity are in accordance with the physical geographical characteristics. The results can provide a basis for biodiversity conservation, land use management and regional landscape planning and construction.
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    最小数据方法在生态补偿中的应用——以甘南黄河水源补给区为例
    赵雪雁, 董霞
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 748-754.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.748
    摘要   PDF (428KB)
    甘南黄河水源补给区蓄水、补水功能对整个黄河流域水资源调节起了关键作用,亟需建立生态补偿机制保护生态环境。采用最小数据方法模拟出了草地水源涵养服务供给曲线,根据不同的生态恢复目标,确定补偿标准,估算新增水源涵养量。研究结果显示:(1) 通过生态补偿提高甘南黄河水源补给区水源涵养能力是可行的; (2)当合作、夏河、玛曲、碌曲、卓尼、临潭的补偿额分别达1 024.3、999.79、861.74、1 008.54、585.54、983.22元/hm2时,该区退化草地将全部禁牧,将新增水源涵养量2.253×109m3;(3) 草地提供的水源涵养服务和农户经济行为存在空间异质性,因此应建立差别化、动态化补偿标准。
    The Huanghe (Yellow) River Water Supply Area of Gannan lies in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, so it can be considered as the important part of the water tower of China and the protection of its water resources is crucial. The minimum-data approach, which integrates the spatial heterogeneity of the biophysical environment and the economic behavior of farmers, is a transparent and cost effective tool to quantify the effect of financial incentives in the conservation of water resource. Policy relevant information can be generated without the need to conduct expensive field survey and to set up more elaborate economics simulation models. The paper makes use of the precipitation storage model to simulate the additional water conservation from grazing to grazing prohibition, then applies the minimum-data approach to simulate the supply curve of the water conservation of the grassland ecosystem from the spatial distribution of opportunity cost per unit of water conservation. The results show that it is theoretically possible to increase water conservation quantity by implementing the ecological compensation in the Huanghe River Water Supply Area of Gannan, and the initial equilibrium supply of water before farmers are given payments is 5.954?107 m3. When the compensation standard of the Hezuo,Xiahe,Maqu, Luqu, Zhuni and Lintan respectively equal to 1024.3 yuan/ha, 999.79 yuan/ha, 861.74 yuan/ha, 1008.54 yuan/ha, 585.54 yuan/ha and 983.22 yuan/ha, all of the degradation grassland will be prohibited from grazing, the additional water conservation will equals to 2.253?109 m3 in the Huanghe River Water Supply Area of Gannan. That is to say,it would be technically and economically feasible to pay farmers to increase water conservation quality and secure the water tower of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This water supply curve can be used by policy decision makers to assess how much farmers are willing to supply at a given price per unit of water. Integrated with an assessment of how much water is expected, the efficient water and grassland protection policy can be implemented.
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    莱州湾东岸河流的分形特征与流域地貌发育研究
    孙祝友, 杜国云, 朱大奎, 张永战
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 755-759.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.755
    摘要   PDF (346KB)
    莱州湾东岸发育有分形特征典型的小尺度河流,受区域内陆海相互作用影响显著。基于前人对莱州湾东岸的研究以定性描述为主,而缺乏定量分析这一现状,以莱州湾东岸3条典型河流为例,采用分形分析和GIS技术相结合的方法,对区域内流域地貌特征进行了定量分析。结果表明,分形分析同样适用于研究小尺度河流,可很好地揭示区域内陆海相互作用特征及流域地貌所处的发育阶段。基于分形方法所反映的流域地貌特征与数字高程模型所提取的流域地貌信息较吻合,最终结果能较客观地反映出流域地貌的发育特征。
    There are several small-scale rivers with typical fractal features in the eastern coast of Laizhou Bay. The fluvial landform character are deeply influenced by regional land-ocean interaction. Most previous researches on Laizhou Bay focused on the southern coast, mainly including landform descriptions, saltwater intrusion, coastal erosion, sedimentary environment and dynamics and so on. There were few quantitative studies on fluvial landform of the eastern coast. Besides, the fractal features of large-scale rivers have been well-studied, but not the small-scale rivers. In this study, based on the contour data of the eastern coast of Laizhou Bay in 1969 (because there are few anthropic activities at that time), the fluvial landform features are quantitatively analyzed by applying fractal methods, including Overlay Method and Horton’s Law, and GIS technology to three typical small-scale rivers (the Huangshuihe River, the Wanghe River and the Jiehe River) in the region.On the basis of Overlay Method’s results and He’s standard of classification of fluvial landform, the fluvial landform in the eastern coast of Laizhou Bay is on the primary stage, not well-developed; and the river channel fractal dimension data of the Wanghe River is the largest, which demonstrates that its evolution is deeply influenced by historical migration of the river channel. According to Horton’s Law, the fractal dimension data show that the evolution of rivers in the eastern coast of Laizhou Bay are natural and normal, and are influenced by the intensity of tectonic movements and the number of fault zones in this region or adjacent area. The fractal dimension data of the Jiehe River is the smallest, because there are only a few fault zones in its drainage area and it is less influenced by the famous Tancheng-Lujiang Fault Zone. Compared with our field work, the fractal methods can better reveal the fluvial landform features of the eastern coast of Laizhou Bay, and both the fractal dimension data and regional Digital Elevation Model (DEM) information are in accordance with the actual fluvial landform features in the region. The fluvial landform features in the eastern coast of Laizhou Bay are related to sustained marine regression process since the Holocene high sea level and the lowering of erosion base level and response to the land-ocean interaction of coastal zone (LOICZ) in this region.The fractal methods are suitable to apply to small-scale rivers,and the final conclusion will be more accurate and comprehensive if more small-scale rivers in the coastal zone are studied.
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    巢湖蓝藻爆发多要素预测模型研究
    方凤满, 金高洁, 高超
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 760-765.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.760
    摘要   PDF (364KB)
    以巢湖湖体为研究区,收集2000~2007年湖体12个监测点月水质监测数据以及相应时段气温、日照时间等气象数据。通过突变判别,选择总磷作为状态变量,高锰酸盐指数和温度、氮磷比和pH、氮磷比和日照时间等为控制变量,构建三对不同控制变量的蓝藻爆发尖点突变模型,经验证3个模型的交叉集方程B=8P3+27Q2均可作为蓝藻是否爆发的判别方程。当B值处于临界值0附近或<0,水生生态系统处于突变状态,需做好蓝藻爆发应急处置预案。模型检验与实际监测数据一致性较好。
    Taking Chaohu Lake as the study area, potassium permanganate index (CODMn), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP),Chlorophyll-a(Chla),pH data in the 12 monitoring points of the lake and the corresponding temperature,radiation, etc. (from 2000 to 2007) from China Meteorological Administration were collected. Through the mutation discrimination, TP was selected as state variables,CODMn and temperature, ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus(N/P) and pH, N/P and radiation were decided as control variable,then three water bloom catastrophe models were constructed by 12 lake monitoring points data. The obtained cross set equation is B=8P3+27Q2, which can be as criterion equation of water bloom outbreak. When valued in critical near zero or less than zero, then the water bloom would appear,aquatic ecosystems in the state of mutations, we should complete water bloom outbreaks of emergency response plan. Model testing and monitoring data consistency is good.
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    长江中游网湖沉积物营养元素变化特征及其影响因素
    史小丽, 秦伯强
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 766-771.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.766
    摘要   PDF (376KB)
    在放射性核素137Cs和210Pb精确计年的基础上,建立了长江中游网湖近代沉积物年代序列。通过对沉积物中TOC、TN、TP、孢粉、重金属元素、粒度等指标的测定,结合相关文献资料,分析了百年来网湖沉积物中营养元素的分布特征,物源变化以及主控因子。结果表明:百年来网湖沉积物中TN和TOC含量显著相关,呈不断上升趋势,存在2个明显的演化阶段,主控因子为流域人类活动强度,气候波动对其有影响,但影响不大。TP的变化与TN和TOC明显不同,波动较大,规律不明显,主要受人类活动强度以及径流侵蚀输移入湖物质变化两大因子控制。
    Sediment cores were collected in November 2007 from Wanghu Lake, a river connecting lake before 1960s, in the middle reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River. Dating sequence of the core was established based on radioisotopes 137Cs and 210Pb. The samples of the core sediments were analyzed for total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), heavy metal, grain-size and pollens. The results show that two stages were recognized according to vertical variation of TOC and TN concentrations. Before 1950, both TOC and TN concentrations were low and stable, reflecting that the TOC and TN of sediment were mainly from the natural of soil nutrient cycling in surrounding. After 1950, the concentrations of TOC and TN were increasing, the maximum appeared in the surface of sediment. The vertical changes of TP was different from TN and TOC, and it was more complex relatively. Before 1920, TP concentrations were low and sable, and in the period 1920-1950, TP concentrations were lower which were probably resulted from the decline of economy and population of the Yangxin County caused by war, Schistosomiasis and frequent floods. From 1950 to 1970, with the hydraulic engineering constructions, the development of industry and agriculture, the concentrations of TP in sediment were notable increased. Since Fuchi floodgate had been finished in 1967, the lake water exchange from the Changjiang (Yangtze) River was blocked, fine soil and particle phosphorus decreased into Wanghu Lake from Changjiang River, and the concentrations of TP in the sediment was declined. The results from Principal Component Analysis show that the concentrations of TOC and TN in sediment were mainly controlled by human activities and the changes of catchment land use, and climate had little impacted on them; the concentrations of TP were drove by two factors of human activities, erosion and transportation of runoff in catchment and the Changjiang River.
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    季节性冻土区不同时期土壤剖面水分空间变异特征研究
    王子龙, 付强, 姜秋香, 李天霄, 王晓巍
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 772-776.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.772
    摘要   PDF (438KB)
    为解决季节性冻土水分在冻融过程中迁移复杂性及空间非均一性的定量化描述困难问题,以季节性冻土区土壤剖面水分为研究对象,运用地统计学的理论与方法对季节性冻土区不同时期土壤剖面水分的空间变异特征进行研究。结果表明,不同时期土壤剖面水分具有良好的空间结构及较强的空间相关性;季节冻融过程削弱土壤剖面水分的空间相关性,并且对土壤含水量具有强烈的空间重分布作用。地统计学理论与方法的应用可为季节性冻土区土壤冻融过程中水分运移机理的研究提供一种新的思路和方法。
    For solving the difficult problems of quantitative description on migration complexity and spatial inhomogeneity of seasonal frozen soil moisture during frozen-thaw process, soil moisture profile of different stages in seasonal frozen soil region was taken as the research object and geostatistics was performed to study its spatial variability. The results indicated that soil profile moisture of different stages had good spatial structure and strong spatial correlation. Seasonal frozen-thaw process weakened the spatial correlation of soil profile moisture and had intense spatial redistribution effects on it. The application of geostatistics can provide a new thought and method for the research on soil moisture migration mechanism during frozen-thaw process in seasonal frozen soil region.
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    海南岛东寨港红树林区岩芯地球化学特征及其古地震指示
    张振克, 孟红明, 谢丽, 王秀玲, 张云峰, 余克服
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 777-782.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.777
    摘要   PDF (943KB)
    地震对海岸带地貌与沉积有明显影响,1605年海南岛琼山地震造成东寨港地区发生严重陷落事件。对采自东寨港红树林区258 cm柱状岩芯YBL孔进行了粒度和元素地球化学分析,发现地球化学元素含量在125 cm附近有明显突变,对应于沉积相从陆向海的转变,125 cm以下岩芯沉积物为暗红棕色陆相沉积,125cm以上为灰色-橄榄灰色海相粉砂沉积。推测该沉积相突变是对海南岛东寨港地震陷落事件响应,结合采样点潮位高程推测1605年琼山地震导致东寨港区域沉陷幅度至少为1.6~1.8 m。
    Extreme earthquake in coastal region strongly changed the coastal landform and sedimentary sequences. The serious earthquake in the year of 1605 occurred at Qiongshan in the region around Puqian Bay, north-eastern Hainan Island, which was the most extensive earthquake recoded in the historical documents in South China with the seismic intensity of M7.5. This historical earthquake resulted in the land subsidence and the formation of the Dongzhai Bay. According to the sedimentary characteristics of the YBL Core and the analysis results about the grain seize and elements, the geochemical records of the historical earthquake was presented in this paper. The comprehensive analysis indicated the 1.6-1.8 meters subsidence occurred at the inner part of the Dongzhai Bay. The YBL Core near to Yeboluo Island was drilled to the buried red soils, which is the terrestrial environment before the earthquake subsidence. Rapid changes of the geochemical elements occurred at 125 cm of YBL Core and which indicated the environment changed quickly from terrestrial to marine environment. Further detailed study is needed for the analysis about the chronology,
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    中国东北地区侵蚀产沙尺度效应的空间分异
    闫云霞, 许炯心, 廖建华
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 783-789.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.783
    摘要   PDF (964KB)
    对中国东北地区侵蚀产沙尺度效应的空间变化进行了探讨。基于气候、下垫面的一致性和流域的完整性,对整个研究区域进行了分区研究。结果表明,尺度效应同时受到地形、坡度、土地利用和地表覆盖物质等因素的影响,不同分区因素因素组合不同,其产沙模数随流域面积的变化趋势亦不相同,可以分为三类:(1) 产沙模数随流域面积增大而增大;(2) 产沙模数随流域面积的增大基本保持不变;(3) 产沙模数随流域面积的增大而减小。基于各分区尺度效应,进行了不同标准面积下产沙模数图的校正,并使用空间插值方法,编制不同标准面积下产沙模数图。
    This paper examined the spatial variation of sediment yield in Northeast China, a large area with complex geology, climate, land use history, and extensive sediment monitoring. In order to develop regional sediment yield scale relations, and to then use them to interpolate the spatial pattern of sediment yield, the area was divided into ten sub-regions of first class and fifteen sub-areas of second class. And 200 stations were used to study the scale effects of sediment yield. Three regional trends were identified: (1) a decreasing trend, with sub-regions usually located on the upper reach of river basins, such as Nenjiang sub-region on the upper reach of the Songhuajiang River basin and Xiliaohe sub-region on the upper reach of the Liaohe River basin; (2) a flat trend, with sub-regions such as the Second Songhuajiang River basin and the lower reach of Songhuajiang river basin; (3) an increasing trend, with sub-regions usually locate on the lower reach of river basins, such as lower reach of the Liaohe River basin. Using these developed relations, areally-adjusted sediment yield maps were created over the entire Northeast China with universal Kriging interpolation.
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    巴丹吉林典型高大沙山粒度分布规律研究
    邵天杰, 赵景波, 李恩菊, 董治宝
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 790-795.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.790
    摘要   PDF (536KB)
    选巴丹吉林沙漠典型高大沙山(1 605 m)为研究对象,对沙山沉积物进行系统采样分析。结果表明,巴丹吉林沙漠典型高大沙山(1 605 m)粒度组成中细砂含量最高,中砂次之;粗砂、极细砂和粗粉砂含量均较少,胶粒、粘粒、细粉砂未出现。迎风坡沉积物粒度比背风坡细。迎风坡砂粒大小均匀、分选好,迎风坡沉积物颗粒较背风坡总体要均匀。沙山迎风坡和背风坡沉积物由坡脚至顶部粒径总体变细,砂粒大小趋于均匀,分选变好,偏度和峰态由波动趋于稳定。大沙山迎风坡下部侵蚀作用为主,背风坡中上部以风力堆积为主,下部以重力堆积为主。
    The paper selected the typical mega-dune (1605 m) in Badain Jaran Desert as the object of the study, and analyzed the sediment samples systematically. The results showed that the content of the fine sand was the highest, followed by the medium sand. The contents of the coarse sand, very fine sand and coarse silt were less, and the colloidal particle, clay and fine silt didn’t appear. The particle size of sediment on windward slope was smaller than that on leeward slope. The sand particle on windward slope was even-sized, well-separated. The sediment particle size became smaller, evener, better-separated, and the deviation and kurtosis more stable from the bottom to the top of the slope. The main function was erosion on bottom of windward slope, and the main function was accretion by wind action in middle and upper part and by gravity in bottom of leeward slope.
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    厦门站气温非均一性订正及其变化特征对比分析
    李祥余, 黄少鹏, 叶红, 熊永柱, 陈峰, 汪凯, 潘玲阳
    地理科学. 2010, 30 (5): 796-801.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.796
    摘要   PDF (410KB)
    利用逐步多元线性回归法和差值法相结合对厦门站1954~2007年逐年/月平均、最高和最低气温进行非均一性订正,订正值分别为0.84、0.72和0.65℃。对比分析订正前后气温的年际和季节变化趋势。订正后的气温资料分析结果显示:年均、最高和最低气温都呈快速增温趋势,倾向率依次为0.25、0.33和0.18℃/10 a,即54 a内约分别增温1.4、1.8和1.0℃;春夏秋冬四季平均、最高和最低气温也呈现快速增温趋势,其中以冬季增温最显著;年、季平均最高气温增温率都比最低气温快使得气温日较差以0.15℃/10 a速率增大。
    Xiamen Meteorological Station was relocated in 1981, which resulted in a remarkable shift in its long term mean, maximum, minimum surface air temperature (SAT) time series from 1954 to 2007. The stepwise multiple linear regression and difference method were employed to estimate the inhomogeneity of the SAT, and the annual and monthly mean, maximum, minimum SAT time series were adjusted by integrating the two methods. The annual mean, maximum, minimum SAT corrected values are 0.84℃, 0.72℃ and 0.65℃, respectively. The annual and seasonal trends of the unadjusted and adjusted time series were investigated detailedly by a comparative analysis. The results of adjusted SAT time series showed that the annual mean, maximum, minimum SAT increased rapidly at a rate of 0.25℃/10 yr, 0.33℃/10 yr and 0.18℃/10 yr, and had approximately risen by 1.4℃, 1.8℃ and 1.0℃over the 54 years period, respectively. The seasonal mean, maximum, minimum SAT also showed quite significant warming trends in spring, summer, autumn and winter, and the greatest trends of mean, maximum, minimum SAT occurred in winter. The annual and seasonal maximum temperature increased at a faster rate than the minimum temperature, which resulted in a strong increase in the long-term diurnal temperature range and its increasing rate was 0.15℃/10 yr.
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