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  • 地理科学
      2012年, 第32卷, 第1期 刊出日期:2012-01-20 上一期    下一期
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    一篇具有前瞻性和透视力的国家咨询报告
    张平宇,佟连军
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 1-1.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.1
    摘要   HTML   PDF (247KB)

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    关于避免中国交通建设过度超前的建议
    陆大道*
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 2-10.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.2
    摘要   HTML   PDF (722KB)

    这里发表的是经过2009~2010年间大量调查研究和分析写成的咨询报告全文(原文)。“报告”于2010年9月由有关部门上报到国家。“报告”对近年来交通建设成就和交通运输业发展已经达到的水平进行了概括性评价,集中而系统地揭示了近年来全国范围内交通运输建设中出现的过度扩张、重复建设、能力浪费、不合理竞争以及各种运输方式之间的不协调等严重问题,认为交通发展应该逐步进入以优化结构、加强综合运输建设和管理以及发展广大基层区域的交通设施为主的新阶段。由于“报告”是在近年来交通建设特别是“高铁”建设大跃进的高潮中上报的,当时所受到的压力可想而知。


    Since the reform and opening-up, especially the 21th century, China has achieved the great progress on the transport construction. However, since the end of 20th century, especially in recent years, several problems on the transport construction became worse. Based on the investigation and discussion in 2009-2010, we complete the consulting report The Proposition to Avoid the Redundancy and Inappropriate Construction of Chinas Transport Infrastructures. The report is submitted to the Chinese central government on in September, 2010. In this report we assess the progress of China′s transport construction and developing level of the transport industry. It shows that China had constructed one integrated transport system whose ability, structure and spatial distribution can ensure the rapid development of China′s socio-economy. And we reveal the existing serious problems on the transport construction in recent years on the whole China, such as over expansion, over-duplicated construction, unreasonable competition, etc. Now, several transport modes had produced the excessive capacities. Those problems resulted mainly from that the transport planning could not consider completely the China′s national conditions, and its developing stage, tendency. Then, we propose that China′s transport construction should step gradually one new stage to optimize the transport structure, construct the integrated transport system, and develop the transport infrastructures in the backward regions. The construction scale of express way, seaport, and express railway should be studied and verified more scientifically and comprehensively. Furthermore, we should strengthen the comprehensive study of transport industry in the long term. When the report is submit to the government it is in the upsurge of transport construction especially express railway, we are confronted the enormous pressure. To read the authentic report for the reader, we make no revision on this report.

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    城市化水平增长曲线的类型、分段和研究方法
    陈彦光
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 12-17.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.12
    摘要   HTML   PDF (410KB)

    城市化水平增长曲线可以分为S形和J形2大类别,其变化特征、动力学背景及研究方法也不尽相同。城市化曲线研究可以分为唯象分析和唯理分析2大途径,唯理研究包括城—乡人口异速生长、城—乡人口替代以及城乡人口迁移和转换3种路径,目前这些方法主要用于S形曲线研究,对J形曲线的探索不够深入。S形曲线是一种奇对称曲线,其模型导数却是一条偶对称曲线,根据这些特征可以将城市化的S曲线分为3或4个阶段。发展中城市化过程通常不能有效拟合S形曲线,却表现出J形曲线的特征。但是,J形曲线及其函数的导数曲线均不对称,其动力学根源和阶段划分方法暂时尚不明朗。中国未来的城市化曲线研究似乎应该将重点放在J形曲线方面,揭示J形曲线更有助于人们从理论上理解中国的城市化动力学。


    The curves on the change of level of urbanization over time are called urbanization curves, which are in fact models of the progress of urbanization based on empirical evidences from developed countries and developing countries. There are two types of urbanization curves. One is S-shaped curve, and the other, J-shaped curve. The S-curve can be modeled with the logistic function, while the J-curve cannot be described by the logistic function. The former is applicable to the developed countries, whereas the latter is applicable to the developing countries. So far, there have been more studies on the S-shaped curve. However, fewer studies have been devoted to the J-shaped curve of urbanization. Consequently, we know little about the general principle on the J-shaped curve and its underlying rationale, which remain to be further explored in the future. In this paper, various studies on urbanization curves are systemized to form a framework of models on the level of urbanization. The logistic curve was once divided into three stages by Northam (1979): initial stage, acceleration stage, and terminal stage. However, the Northam's proposal is just a phenomenological theory with several defects: first, the definition of 'acceleration stage' is not correct; second, there are no theoretical basis and critical scale for the divisions. It can be proved that the logistic process falls into four phases. Taking half of urbanization level capacity as a tipping point, the logistic curve is divided into two stages: acceleration stage (urban majority) and deceleration stage (urban minority). The tipping point can be determined by two methods of elementary mathematics. Then the two stages are respectively divided into two sub-stages by means of the exponential law of urban-rural ratio with a parameter as characteristic length. Now, urbanization process can be divided into four stages: initial stage, acceleration stage, deceleration stage, and terminal stage. Also it can be divided into three stages: initial stage, celerity stage (including acceleration stage and deceleration stage), and terminal stage. Two methods are always applied to the research of urbanization curves and the related urbanization dynamics. One is phenomenological analysis, and the other, theoreticalogical analysis, which consists of three approaches: urban-rural allometric growth, urban-rural population replacement, and urban-rural population interaction dynamics. Urban-rural allometric growth analysis is a kind of scaling analysis. Urban-rural population replacement suggests a new dynamical analysis. Urban-rural interaction comprises linear dynamics and nonlinear dynamics. The linear dynamics is based on the well-known Keyfitz-Rogers model, whereas the nonlinear dynamical analysis can be employed to interpret the similarities and differences between the S-shaped and J-shaped curves. China’s urbanization process can be described with the J-shaped curve rather than the S-shaped curve. The studies on the urbanization curves will be significant for understanding the dynamical mechanism and essence of Chinese urbanization.

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    城市空间变迁背景下的地方感知与身份认同研究——以广州小洲村为例
    朱竑,钱俊希,吕旭萍
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 18-24.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.18
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    身份认同是文化和社会研究中一个重要的概念,是指个人在特定的社会文化语境中逐步确定自己在这一社会文化秩序中的个体角色,从而形成完整的自我认知与自我定义。而地方认同则是对某个地方作为社会角色自我感知的一部分的认知,通过地方的意义来形成对个人或社会群体文化与身份的认同。以地方与身份认同作为主要的研究维度,将广州独特的“艺术村”小洲村作为研究对象,探讨城市空间演变背景下,本地村民与艺术家这两类具有不同文化倾向的社会群体基于地方的身份认同,探索艺术家与村民之间在认同上的冲突、断裂与融合。研究剖析了小洲村艺术家及原村民在社区演变的过程中文化身份认同和地方认同形成与变迁的情况,并分析其认同构建的原因和特征。研究的结果显示,小洲村的本地村民与艺术家的地方认同感在本质上看还处在一个消极的割裂与断层的状态,两个社会群体对于地方意义的感知与认同还需要未来进一步的互动与融合。


    The research on identity is very important within cultural and social studies. Identity represents the roles that individuals or social groups play within a social and cultural structure. It is connected with self-recognition and self-definition. On the other hand, place identity means that the meanings of place are taken as part of self-definition. Through place identity, individuals or social groups understand themselves through the constructive nature of place as a reference. In this paper, place and identity are exploited as the main axes around which this discussion is embarked. Taking Guangzhou's "Artist Village"—Xiaozhou Village as an example, the evolution of identities of both the local villagers and the newcomer artists is to be understanded, under the context of Guangzhou′s urban spatial transformation. In particular, the coexistence, juxtaposition, collision and even conflict between the two groups′ place-based identities are interested in. The research results suggest that there is an apparent status of fragmentation between the place identities of the two social groups. There is no sound proof in support of any progressive sense of place in either group′s place imagination, in which sense it can be believed that there will still be a long process before the two social groups are fully integrated in, regard of the construction of their place-based identities.

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    乡村劳动力迁移的“双拉力”模型及其就地城镇化效应——基于中国东南沿海三个地区的实证研究
    祁新华,朱宇,周燕萍
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 25-30.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.25
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    针对中国东南沿海部分地区未通过大规模人口迁移而实现转型的就地城镇化现象,选择3个就地城镇化发达地区,在问卷调查数据的支撑下,构建了“乡村拉力—城市拉力”(“双拉力”)概念模型,探讨乡村劳动力迁移行为、迁移意愿及其城镇化效应。结果显示,居民迁移行为不太频繁,且多数为就地就近的近距离迁移;同时迁移意愿不够强烈,并且倾向于近距离的中小城镇。在“双拉力”模型分析框架内,乡村拉力主要表现为就业机会、收入水平(预期收入)、社会保障与乡土情节,城市拉力包括就业机会与收入水平、居住环境、子女教育等,乡村拉力作用强度远大于城市拉力。在这个来源于乡村的动力机制的作用下,当地居民出于个人比较利益最大化的考虑更倾向于选择就地转型,由此导致了与西方传统城市化模式迥异的就地城镇化现象。进一步论证了就地城镇化产生与发展的本地性与客观必然性,深化了对就地城镇化现象微观机制的认识。


    Based on cases studies in three coastal areas of Southeast China, this paper proposes a "Double-Pull" conceptual model to examine the migration intention and behaviour of the rural labor force and their urbanization effects in the areas characterized by well developed in situ urbanization and little out-migration, using data from a questionnaire survey. The results show that migration frequency of the respondents was low, and short-distance moves were the dominant form of their mobility. At the same time, they demonstrated low migration intention, and for those who did indicate such intention, they tended to choose nearby middle- and small-towns as the destination. Under the framework of "Double Pull" Conceptual Model, the above migration intention and behaviou were the result of the balance of both the rural and the urban pull forces. The "rural pull forces" included employment opportunities, income, social insurance and the sentimental attachment to hometowns; while the "urban pull forces" included employ opportunities, income, residential environments, children′s education, etc.; and the former was much stronger than the latter. In order to achieve maximum benefits, local people tended to choose rural-urban transformation rather than out-migration, and this led to the phenomenon of in situ urbanization, which is different from the conventional urbanization patterns in the past of developed countries. The paper confirms local nature of the endogenous nature of the emergence and development of in situ urbanization and its inevitability, and contributes to a deeper understanding on the micro mechanism of in situ urbanization.

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    世界遗产视野下的矿业遗产研究
    戴湘毅,阙维民
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 31-38.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.31
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    对世界遗产名录中矿业遗产的考察是认识该遗产类型、了解国际动向的有效途径。对ICOMOS颁布的《世界遗产中工业和技术遗产项目》名单进行分析,结合世界遗产委员会的项目评语,确定了24项世界矿业遗产。对这些项目研究表明:在登录标准上,世界矿业遗产主要通过文化遗产第ii项、第iii项和第iv项标准入选;在隶属区域上,欧洲北美地区拥有16项,拉丁美洲及加勒比地区拥有7项,亚太地区拥有1项,非洲地区和阿拉伯地区目前尚未拥有;在时间分布上,世界矿业遗产的时间跨度较大,单个项目的延续时间较长,主要表现了16~20世纪期间矿业发展取得的成就;在属性特征上,金属矿业遗产项目占据优势,矿业城镇和相关建筑是项目的主要形式。研究还揭示出,世界矿业遗产在价值评价中体现了以欧洲为中心的遗产话语,即认为只有在历史上与欧洲存在联系、体现欧洲艺术和建筑风格、在欧洲重要历史时期和事件上起到重要作用的矿业遗产才具有“突出的普遍价值”。在“全球战略”的背景下,研究认为中国矿业遗产具有当前世界矿业遗产项目所没有的特点,并探讨了在这种背景下的应对策略。


    Analyzing mining heritages on the World Heritage List is an effective way to learn this type of heritage and understand the international trends in heritage conservation. This study extracts 24 mining heritages by analyzing "Industrial and technical heritage in the World Heritage List" issued by ICOMOS and brief description of heritage sites announced by World Heritage Committee. Results of the analysis indicate: 1) Most of mining heritages are inscribed into the World Heritage List according to the Cultural Criteria ii, iii and iv; 2) The imbalance on spatial distribution of mining heritages is more serious than that on World Heritage List in the whole. Europe and North America have 16 items; Latin America and Caribbean have 7 items; Asia-Pacific has 1 item; Africa and Arab States has not yet got mining heritage on the World Heritage List; 3) Mining heritages on the World Heritage List have been selected from a long time span and most properties have long production history. These mining heritages mainly reflect the information and history of mining between 16th century A D to 20th century A D, and mining heritages formed before 9th century A D are ignored; 4) Heritages related with metal mining have occupied the majority of mining heritages on the World Heritage List and mining heritage towns and architectures are the main form of these mining heritages. These results reveal that the Euro-centric heritage discourse is prevalent in the process of valuing mining heritages when they are submitted for inclusion in the World Heritage List, which has led to the imbalance of mining heritages in the World Heritage List. Those suggests that heritages with outstanding universal significance should be associated with properties having connections with Europe in history, presenting the characteristics of European arts and architecture styles, and illustrating significant stages or (and) events in European history. It has also undervalued the mining heritages in some non-European cultural regions when this Euro-centric heritage discourse is viewed as the advanced experience in the international level and accepted without reservation. Realizing the problem of Euro-centralism in the world heritage affairs, the World Heritage Committee put forward the "Global Strategy" in 1994. In addition, this study points out that China is abundant in its mining heritages from the perspective of officially protected site/entity announced by governments at all levels, but until now China has no mining heritage on the World Heritage List. With the background of the global strategy of world heritage and the diversification of heritage discourse in the international level, this study puts forward some measures for Chinese mining heritages, such as strengthening the theoretic research and building suitable heritage discourses from Chinese actual conditions; conserving mining heritages relying on Chinese officially protected site/entity; launching special mining heritage programs and enhancing public awareness.

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    沟域经济的地域类型识别研究 ——以北京市门头沟区为例
    刘春腊,张义丰,徐美,刘沛林
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 39-46.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.39
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    以村庄为基本单元,结合实地调研和村庄级统计材料,收集门头沟区18条典型沟域的沟域经济发展数据。在对其沟域经济类型区进行研究的基础上,对地域类型进行了划分,并探讨了不同地域类型下的沟域经济空间结构。根据熵权—层次模型,结合实地调研数据、专家意见及村庄级资料,研究得出沟域平均海拔、区位条件等是沟域经济地域类型划分的主导要素。在地域类型上,可将门头沟区沟域经济划分为山前型(平均海拔400 m以下),浅山型(平均海拔600 m以下),近深山型(平均海拔1 000 m以下)和远深山型(平均海拔1 000 m以上)等4种地域类型。在空间结构上,门头沟区4种地域类型的沟域经济各具特征,山前型沟域具有网络式空间结构(山前网络型),浅山型沟域具有点轴式空间结构(浅山点轴型),近深山型沟域具有据点式空间结构(近深山据点型),远深山型沟域具有相对均衡式空间结构(远深山相对均衡型)。


    Geographic types are relative stability region units, which are formed in the certain geographical environment and a long history process, and composed by many special areas or units that have similar features in development conditions, production structure, development characteristics, development direction, and etc. The valley economy, as a new model of mountain development, is playing a more and more important role in gathering and effective linking in the mountainous traffic, villages, population and resources, which meets the requirements of mountainous space optimization development. By now, there are a little of achievements in the study of valley economy′s geographic type. From the perspective of Geography, valley economy′s geographic type identification has a great theory significance and practical value, which can provide some references for mountainous areas′ development. Mentougou, in the west of Beijing, is situated in the transitional mountainous areas of Mongolian plateau and North China plain, the intersection of platform anteclise in Shanxi Provinceand Yanshan fold belt. The mountainous areas occupy 98.5% of the study area, approximately 300 valleys here, thus it can be regarded as the pure mountainous area in Beijing. Mentougou possess the typical characteristics of valley economy development. Taking villages in Mentougou as the basic units, combined with dates from field research and village-level statistics, valley economy materials of 18 typical valleys in Mentougou district are gained. Based on the division of valley economy geographical zone, this paper identified its geographic type, and probed the spatial structure of different valley economy geographic types. According to the identification model, based on entropy weight theory and AHP method, combined with field research dates, expert advices and village-level statistical materials, this study obtained that, valley average elevation is the dominant factor to identificate valley economy geographic type. In geographic type, combined with analysis on the topographic profile, the Mentougou valley economy can be divided into piedmont type (≤400 m), shallow mountain type (≤600 m), appro-alpine type (≤1000 m) and far-alpine type (>1000 m). In spatial structure, the 4 valley economy geographic types have their own features: piedmont type valley possesses a network spatial structure (piedmont network type), shallow mountain type valley possesses a point-axis type spatial structure (shallow mountain point-axis type), appro-alpine type valley possesses a base type spatial structure (appro-alpine base type), and far-alpine type valley possesses a relative balanced type spatial structure (far-alpine relative balanced type).

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    近30年来苏锡常城市增长形态过程与聚散规律
    刘登娥,陈爽
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 47-54.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.47
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    基于苏锡常地区多时相遥感数据,采用缓冲区分析方法和象限分位分析方法,并结合景观格局指数,定量比较苏州、无锡、常州城市建设用地近30 a来扩展过程,研究城市空间分散-集中的规律性,揭示城市增长空间模式特征。结果表明:1979~2006年间苏锡常城镇用地面积扩展巨大,3市扩展强度指数随圈层半径变化轨迹高度一致,扩展强度峰值约10 a向外推移2 km;苏锡常城镇扩展形态均呈分散-集中交替变化,但研究中未观测到完整周期;城市外部轮廊变化差异明显,以开发区为代表的政府干预行为主导城市扩展方向。苏州城市用地扩展主要集中在东片工业园区和南部城区,无锡城市用地各向扩展相对均衡,常州城市用地扩展主要集中在北部高新技术产业区及城东工业区。


    The authors performed a quantitative study on characteristics of urban expansion in the Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou cities (SWC) by means of quadrant analysis and buffer analysis with Landsat MSS/TM/ETM images acquired in 1979, 1991, 2001and 2006. The results indicated that the spatial pattern of urban growth behaved certain regularity in the last 30 years. Expansion intensity index of the three cities showed a highly coherence with circle radius, and the peak of expansion intensity moved gradually from the inside out with time. Combined with experimental analysis for major growth axis, it is suggested that SWC region might present incomplete filling and axial development. The expansion pattern exhibited an alternating process that the complete cycle of diffusion-aggregate-diffusion was not observed in the whole city in 1976-2006. It was also found that urban expansion intensity index was quite different in different directions at different time. Various development zones which were initiated and located by the government played an important role in driving new urban growth. In Suzhou city, the eastern industrial park and southern districts lead the whole expansion process. In Wuxi, the expansion of all directions was relatively balanced.owing to the private economy development. In contrast, the urban expansion of Changzhou showed a multi-polarization trend which flocked to northern high-tech industrial zones and eastern industrial zones. A number of alternating development axes emerged as a result of the top-to-bottom control on urban development in the city.

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    景德镇陶瓷作坊的文化生态景观研究
    詹嘉
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 55-59.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.55
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    根据自然—经济—文化相互联系及物质与能量转换的关系,通过实地考察景德镇生态资源,考证现存的大型陶瓷作坊,分析相关的历史文献和考古资料,运用手工绘图、测量数据,从文化地理学的角度论证了陶瓷作坊应严格遵循自然规律,因地制宜、因材施艺、资源循环利用;建筑材料、结构功能、生产工序、工艺布局具有科学性、合理性、严谨性。指出景德镇陶瓷工匠创造了采光、通风、温度、湿度宜人的生产环境,陶瓷作坊达到了结构、功能、效率、风格的完美统一,堪称世界人与自然和谐相处的经典之作,揭示作坊景观形成机理。


    This paper analyzes the ceramic workshops in Jingdezhen, Jiangxi, according to the inter-association of nature-economy-culture and the conversion between substance and energy from the angle of cultural geography. After field investigation of ecological environment in Jingdezhen and the large ceramic workshop, this article analyzes the manual mapping, measured data, the relative historical documents and archaeological materials. It points out the fact that the construction of ceramic workshops should follow strictly natural laws: it needs to choose the measures to suit for different conditions, the fabricationent to suit for different materials, and use the resource cyclically. In addition, it needs to study the building materials, the structure and the function, the production processes, the layout of the craft, which all have a basis in science, rationality, and rigor. This paper also points out that the ceramic craftsmen of Jingdezhen created the production environment which had proper lighting, ventilation, temperature and humidity. The construction, function, efficiency and the style of ceramic workshops achieve perfectly unification, which are the classic work of the human and nature getting along with each other harmoniously. All these explain the formation mechanism of the workshop landscape.

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    基于小波分析长株潭核心区土地利用变化尺度特征研究
    傅丽华,谢炳庚,何燕子,仇应山,朱康
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 60-65.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.60
    摘要   HTML   PDF (468KB)

    根据长株潭核心区1989~2008年4期遥感影像数据资料,提取区域土地利用变化数据。以湘江样带为典型研究区,运用小波分析方法对样带内的典型样线进行分析,得到时间及位置变化对土地利用特征尺度值的差异。分析结果表明,长株潭核心区不同部位的特征尺度选择不是唯一的,具有不同的尺度敏感性。长株潭城市建成区土地利用类型最为单一,对于尺度变化最不敏感,适宜采用3 300 m左右的平均粒径为特征分析尺度;城市边缘区土地利用变化的尺度敏感性最强,特征尺度采用1 980 m左右的分析粒径为宜;长株潭生态绿心区域对土地利用变化的尺度敏感性较强,以3 060 m的平均粒径为特征尺度。


    Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan, the key components of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration and the core growth pole of economic development in Hunan province, have been accelerating their economic and social development and their urbanization in recent years. Their high-speed urbanization is the main reason for the significant changes in the land use structures and functions in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan core area. Therefore, research of regional land use change will exert a positive and significant influence on enhancing the harmony among land use, urban environment, economic and social development, and helping satisfy the requirements both the human living and ecological protection. Wavelet analysis, which emerged in the 1990s, is a mathematical tool for multi-scale analysis. It specializes in land use pattern analysis from frequency and scale, linking spatio-temporal pattern with scale and location. This analysis, though widely applied in ecology, has never been adopted in exploring scale characteristics of land use change in urban agglomeration. It must be a significant attempt to adopt wavelet analysis in exploring the scale characteristics of land use change in the core area of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, for its results will help to explain the spatial heterogeneity and scale sensitivity and further, the driving mechanism in regional land use change, and provide an important basis for response analysis of the scale of landscape change. The research is carried on the relationship between time and location and land use change characteristics scale from a wavelet analysis on typical transect line of the belt along the Xiangjiang River as the typical land use region based on the data of land use change extracted from the remote sensing image data in four periods from 1989 to 2008. The result shows that the different degrees of sensitivity of each quarter of the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan core area to scale change determine their selection in land use characteristic scale, which is supported by 1) The quarter around the city centre, which is of a relatively single land use type, is the least sensitive to scale change, thus about 3 300 m parcel analysis being the most appropriate; 2) The urban fringe quarter is the most sensitive to scale change, thus about 2 000 m parcel analysis being the most appropriate; and 3) The green heart of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, the combination quarter of the three cities, is moderately sensitive to scale change, thus about 3 000 m parcel analysis being the most appropriate.

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    近600年来巢湖流域旱涝灾害研究
    贾铁飞,施汶妤,郑辛酉,张卫国,俞立中
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 66-73.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.66
    摘要   HTML   PDF (545KB)

    基于历史文献中的水旱灾害记录,重建巢湖流域1370~1988年旱涝灾害等级序列,并进行连续功率谱分析。结果表明:近600多 a来,巢湖流域涝灾和旱灾发生的频率几乎相当,平均为2.28~2.40 a一遇;但特大涝灾和大涝灾的频率远高于特大旱灾和大旱灾。巢湖流域水旱灾害存在准周期的变化,主要为:2~3、7~10 a,这与长江中下游的洪涝灾害变化步调基本一致。自然气候因素和人类活动对环境演变的影响是今后进一步研究的主要方向。


    Based on listing systematically the historical records of the Chaohu Lake Basin’s drought and flood, and integrating the data of 7 counties (cities) on watershed flood and drought indexes and its grades, a graded series of dryness/wetness during the past 600 years has been rebuilt to calculated the drought and flood frequency. The results of continuous power spectrum analysis reveal the rules and cycles of dryness/wetness change within the Basin. In comparison with the dryness/wetness series of mid-downstream basin of the Changjiang River and the watershed climatic change in temperature, then the impacts on environment change by natural factor and human exploitation can be indicated. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) In past 600 years, the disaster of flood and drought usually occurred within the Chaohu Lake Basin, and its average frequency was once-in-1.88 years. The frequency of flood was nearly equivalent to that of drought, but the frequency of heavy and great flood was higher than that of heavy and great drought. From the time perspective, the frequency of drought was higher than that of flood before the 19th century; flood was more serious than drought in the 19th century. But to the 20th century, this trend reversed. Moreover, it is a remarkable character that the great drought and great flood appeared 2 to 3 years continuously within the Chaohu Lake Basin in this period. 2) The result of continuous power spectrum analysis demonstrates that there were the 2 or 3-year and 7-10-year fluctuations among them within the Chaohu Lake Basin. The period from the 1920s to the 1960s was the worst drought period within the Chaohu Lake Basin over 600 years. In contrast, the period from the 1820s to the 1860s was the most serious flood period. By the dryness/wetness disaster time series’ fitting on the Chaohu Lake Basin and the Changjiang River mid-downstream Basin, it is found that there was an approximate synchronous variation of disaster occurrence between them. It is also proved that the Chaohu Lake Basin is the commendable indicator of dryness/wetness variation within the Changjiang River mid-downstream Basin. With the advent of agriculture, and the large-scale developing of industry, especially during the past 2 hundred years, the number and activity of the human species increase sharply, so that the mankind intervenes more strongly to environment. Some estimate that the impacts on environment of human activity has been the same degree as that of natural evolutionary process, but so far there is no conclusion on which is more important. Precious curve-fitting illustrated that the environmental evolution within the Chaohu Lake Basin is mainly limited by climate change. Although the degree of human intervention is deepening, it is just one inducement to environmental evolution. 3) There is a certain relationship existing between the occurrence of drought/flood and the regional climatic change in temperature. Before the 1830s, drought often happened in the cool periods, while flood often happened in the warm periods. But the relationship had broken down after the 1830s, and it was characterized by flooding and drought coming by turns, which is the direct result caused by deepening human activity. These viewpoints need to be proved by further research work.

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    基于径流分类的流域降雨—径流过程动态神经网络建模
    邵月红,林柄章,刘永和
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 74-80.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.74
    摘要   HTML   PDF (629KB)

    利用聚类分析,将径流序列分为不同类型的子径流序列,对这些子序列建立神经网络模型,采用Elman动态神经网络对沂沭河流域上游临沂子流域日径流量进行预测分析,通过与不加分类的总体神经网络的模拟结果进行对比分析。确定性系数、相关系数、平均相对误差和平均相对均方根误差4个统计指数及流域径流过程线和次洪误差分析结果都表明:Elman动态神经网络能够对日径流量进行较好模拟,但基于径流分类的降雨—径流模型表现出更优良性能,能较大程度提高径流模拟精度。


    A runoff sequence is classified into several sub-runoff sequences with cluster analysis and practical application, and local dynamic neural network for each sub-runoff sequence is performed separately. An Elman recurrent neural network model (ENN) is constructed and applied for the daily runoff forecast in the Linyi sub-catchment of the upper Yishu river basin in this paper. In order to further evaluate the performance of local Elman neural network (LENN), global Elman neural network (GENN) is applied as a comparison at the same time in the study region. Based on analysis indexes such as Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, correlation coefficient, mean relative error and root mean relative square error, the results of daily runoff and flooding processes are attained. It suggested that Elman recurrent neural network model has a high accuracy of forecast on the rainfall-runoff dynamic process and the maximum peak flow and peak occurrence time, whether it is configuration samples or evaluation samples. However, local Elman neural network based on runoff classification is more suitable and efficient to daily runoff forecasting than global Elman neural network, especially during the period of arid season and semi-humid season. The simulation precision of different periods decreases in the order of arid season, semi-humid season and humid season. Elman recurrent neural network model is feasible to effectively simulate the hydrological dynamic characteristic of the daily runoff and to reflect the complex nonlinear runoff regular pattern in the basin as a promising and efficient method. In order to further evaluate superiority of this method, longer series of data, more regions and hydrology model are need to study and analysis because of the highly nonlinear, spatial and temporal heterogeneity and dynamic uncertainty of rainfall-runoff process.

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    关中平原明代霜雪灾害特征及小波分析研究
    赵景波,邢闪,周旗
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 81-86.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.81
    摘要   HTML   PDF (1088KB)

    通过对关中平原明代历史文献资料的搜集和统计分析,研究了该区明代霜雪灾害等级、阶段与灾害发生周期等。结果表明,关中平原明代霜雪灾害可划分为轻度、中度、重度三级,各占总灾害频次的23%,54%,23%。该区明代霜雪灾害可划分为4个阶段,第1阶段(1368~1448年)和第3阶段(1508~1568年)为灾害少发期,第2阶段(1449~1507年)和第4阶段(1569~1644年)为灾害多发生期。小波分析显示,关中平原明代轻度、中度和重度霜雪灾害分别存在11 a、8 a、44 a的周期变化。初步确定关中平原明代1618~1631年发生了1次寒冷气候事件。


    Based on collecting, reorganizing and analyzing the history data about the Guanzhong Plain during the Ming Dynasty, the grade series, stage changes and different grades' periodicity of the frost and snow disaster are studied in this study. The statistical results show that, frost and snow disaster of the Ming Dynasty had 22 times altogether, and occurred averagely one time per 12.6 years. The Guanzhong Plain's frost and snow disaster grade may be divided into mild, moderate and severe disaster in the Ming Dynasty, and their occurrence probabilities are 26%, 52% and 22%. The disaster has been divided into four uneven periods in the Guanzhong Plain. The first period (1368-1448), and the third one (1508-1568) had the fewer disasters in the Guanzhong Plain, and there were the more disasters during the second period (1449-1507), and the fourth one (1569-1644). The frequency of frost and snow disasters was obvious upward in the Guanzhong Plain. Wavelets analysis has the characteristics of multi-resolution analysis and ability of expressing local features of signal in both time and frequency domains, which is a local analysis method. This novel method is suitable for complex natural disaster systematic. The spatial distribution, temporal evolution and multi-scale period of the frost and snow disaster are studied from the year of 1368 to 1644, applying wavelet analysis method and the history data about the Guanzhong Plain during the Ming Dynasty. The result of wavelet analysis shows, the mild, moderate, severe disaster occurrence periodicity is respectively 11, 8 and 44 years. The change of frost and snow disaster in the Guanzhong Plain during the Ming Dynasty is significant. This phenomenon can indicate climate change of the Ming Dynasty. On the basis degree of the frost and snow disaster, mean annual temperature can be reconstructed. There was one cold climatic event in the Guanzhong Plain in Ming Dynasty, occurring between 1618 and 1631, and the temperature was obviously lower than the other time of Ming Dynasty and the modern. There are six disasters in the period, including one-time moderate frost and snow disaster, 5-times severe frost and snow disasters. The frost and snow disaster occurred averagely one time per 2.3 year during the period. The degree and frequency frost and snow disaster is greater than that of the other time of Ming Dynasty. The result can indicate that there is the little ice age of Ming Dynasty. The results mentioned above indicate that the primary cause of the frequency of frost and snow disasters in the Guanzhong Plain was sudden drop of air temperature caused by sustainable snowfall, accumulated snow and cold snap.

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    扎龙湿地水质净化机理分析
    李红艳,章光新,李绪谦,高蕊,邓春暖
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 87-93.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.87
    摘要   HTML   PDF (653KB)

    降解污染和净化水质是湿地的重要功能。利用现场调查和水质监测资料,分析扎龙湿地水化学场特征,研究水质现状、净化机理及其与湿地水化学形成条件之间的关系。结果表明,扎龙湿地对TP、NH4-N、CODcr和悬浮物的净化率达到90%以上,对TN和NO3-N 净化率可达到75%以上。水质净化功能对生态环境的自然修复作用明显,主要的水质净化机理为吸附沉淀作用、植物吸收作用、生物降解作用、反硝化作用,净化能力大小与溶液化学条件的整体特征、湿地的地质背景、水文化学循环和生物作用过程有关。


    Environmental pollution degradation and water purification are the major function of wetland. This article analyzes the water field characteristics and researches the water quality by field investigation and water quality monitoring. based on the theory of chemical thermodynamics and systematic analytic method,analyzes the relationship between water purification mechanism of Zhalong Wetland and the formation of water chemistry. The result indicates that the major mechanism of water purification of Zhalong Wetland is adsorption precipitation, plant uptake, biodegradation and denitrification, and the purification ability is highly related to chemical condition of solution, geological characteristics of wetland, chemical cycle and biological effect. And the NH4+ entered in the wetland was removed by the adsorption of clay, which reduced the concentration of TN and NO3- in the center of wetland. The concentration of Ca2+, NH4+ in the peripheral of wetland decreased with the direction of runoff, while the concentration of Na+ increased with the runoff direction. Carbonate balance play an important role in the formation and characteristics of pollutant migration. Stable pH value controlled the existence formation of pollutants and the direction and strength of its migration, and controlled the existence formation, migration and transformation of inorganic phosphorus. The existence formation of phosphorus in the low content of neutral and alkaline water was HPO42- and H2PO4-. The content of organic nitrogen is higher in sewage. The main transformation mechanism is biochemical effect and the reaction product is NH4+. Due to NH4+ is susceptible to be adsorption or absorbed by soil and biology, so it is lower in the water. Zhalong Wetland purified TP, NH4-N, CODcr and suspended matter with the rates higher than 90% and purified TN, NO3-N with the rates higher than 75%. The water purification function restores the natural ecosystem remarkably. The regulation of condition of water environment can extremely improved the ability of the wetland’s water purification, and the power of water environment control.

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    1766~1911年黄河中游汛期水情变化特征研究
    潘威,庄宏忠,李卓仑,叶盛
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 94-100.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.94
    摘要   HTML   PDF (557KB)

    根据1766~1911年万锦滩汛期涨水情况的历史文献记录,重建研究时段内黄河三门峡断面逐年汛期流量R(109m3/a )和汛期开始时间T(侯尺度),其平均水平分别为径流量R=51.06×109m3/a,汛期开始时间T平均情况为7月上旬(7月第2个侯),对应于梅雨结束平均日期。研究时段内,1840 s前流量平,汛期开始时间总体较稳定;1840~1850 s流量普遍偏丰,汛期到来偏晚;1860 s开始流量减少,汛期提前,此阶段持续约40 a左右,是近300 a中黄河中游产流微弱持续最长的1个时期。


    Climate change and regional development under the background of water resource decreased over the Yellow River basin, which is under the monsoon climate control. The runoffs during flood season in the Yellow River is about 60%-70%. Rain-fed agriculture is the most important ecnomy part of China during the past thousands of years, while rainy summer and autumn leads to rivers flood, so in history Chinese government must predominate the flood to avoid the agricultural loss. According to the historical records of water level in the Wanjintan during 1766-1911 A D, the reconstruction of the flood flow (R) of Sanmenxia section sequences, and the start time of 115-year flood. Its multi-year average runoffs are R=51.06×109 m3/yr, and the average flood conditions for the start time T is in the early July. Wavelet shows the a 50-year cycle in the runoff series. The results show that: the runoffs in the middle reaches of the Huanghe River has inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations like 6-8 years, quasi-22 years and 50 years. The determination of the quasi-22 years is link to the changing of Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The solar activity was significant during the 1830s. ENSO event is negative with the changing of natural runoff at the inter-annual scale. There was a low-flow period in the last 4 eras of LIA, and it has been the longest low-flow period since 1766 A D. The summer is the key reason of the changing of flood season beginning time for the unstable rainband moving from the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River to the middle reaches of the Huanghe River. Based on water level of Wanjintan in the middle reach of Yellow River(Sanmenxia, Henan)in the 1766-1911s were recorded the time of rising water. Under the 5-days scale, establishing the beginning time of flood season in Sanmenxia in the study period. The results show that: 1766-1840s is the start time of flood season in the middle reaches of the average level; in 1840-1860s the beginning time of flood season come late; in 1860~1890s the beginning time of flood season advance again. In the study period, the average beginning time of flood season in the middle reaches of Yellow River is in the early July, the end time of rainy in the middle reach of Changjiang River have a good correspondence. However, summer wind rain-band moving is the main driving factors of changing of flood season beginning. The delay of flood season to about one pentad in the middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1870 to 1900 is in accordance with the relative low temperature of the Loess Plateau in summer, while the early flood season of the middle reaches of the Yellow River and Qin River is correspondent with the relative high temperature of summer in the Loess Plateau.

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    基于变点分析法提取地势起伏度——以青藏高原为例
    韩海辉,高婷,易欢,杨敏,阎晓娟,任广利,杨军录
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 101-104.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.101
    摘要   HTML   PDF (543KB)

    以青藏高原区域大尺度SRTM3-DEM为数据源,运用GIS的窗口递增分析法依次计算2×2、3×3、4×4、5×5、…、32×32窗口下的地势起伏度,然后采用均值变点法科学的分析平均地势起伏度的最佳统计面积并进行分级分析,得出实验区最佳分析窗口面积为1.17 km2,地势起伏度可分出八级,其中小起伏山地分布最广。高原边缘的地势起伏度普遍较大主要是由于构造运动与河流朔源侵蚀作用强烈;而高原内部地势较为平缓,冰川、冻土作用下的侵蚀搬运可能对地势起伏的影响更大。


    Choosing scientific method to extract and express relief amplitude has become the critical factor to improve the effectiveness and practicality in relief research. Based on SRTM3-DEM, the relief amplitude with increasing grid window method in the Tibetan Plateau was extracted, and then the best window area by the mean change point method was calculated. The result shows that 1.17km2 could be the best window area, the relief amplitude can be divided into eight classes, and the most widely distributed class is low rolling mountain. The relief amplitude is generally more violent at the edge of the plateau. It is mainly due to the intensive tectonic movement and river headward erosion. While the terrain is relatively flat in hinterland of the plateau, the erosion and removal caused by glaciation and unfreezing may be the greater impact on the relief amplitude.

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    基于多方位DEM地形晕渲的黄土地貌正负地形提取
    陈永刚,汤国安,周毅,李发源,宴实江,张磊
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 105-109.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.105
    摘要   HTML   PDF (498KB)

    以陕北绥德县韭园沟流域5 m分辨率DEM数据为基础,在数字地形分析、多元统计和数据挖掘方法的基础上,提出利用多方位DEM地形晕渲、坡度等多元指标,以主成分分析消除多重共线性和约减维数,并以Logistic回归模型提取黄土高原正、负地形的方法。研究结果表明:模型提取精度为82.1%,Kappa统计量为0.629;模型在6个不同流域测试样本上正、负地形的平均精度分别为77.6%,84.9%,加权平均精度为81.3%,模型具有较好的一致性和泛化能力,正、负地形提取效果良好。


    Based on the DEM data of Jiuyuangou wateshed in Suide County, Shaanxi of China, with a spatial resolution of 5 m, employing the digital terrain analysis, multivariate statistics and data mining methods, multiple indexes of multi-azimuth DEM shaded relief and slope are established. The solutions of extraction positive and negative terrain of loess plateau by Principle Components Analysis, and Logistic regression model is proposed. The result indicates that: the extracting model has better consistency and accuracy, of which the accuracy is 82.1% and Kappa statistics is 0.6298. Tested on 6 samples of different valley by this model, the mean accuracy of positive and negative terrain are at 77.6% and 84.9%, and weighed mean accuracy is 81.3%. It is suitable to extract positive and negative terrain of loess plateau by PCA and Logistic regression model.

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    鄱阳湖滨沙岭地区网纹层的顶界年代
    韩志勇,李徐生,陈英勇,弋双文,鹿化煜,杨达源
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 110-115.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.110
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    鄱阳湖滨沙岭地区的沙山由交替出现的砂层与粉砂层构成。对3个剖面的调查发现,该地区发育的网纹大体可分为3种类型,Ⅰ类网纹密集且粗大,为典型的网纹,位于剖面底部,Ⅱ类网纹较稀疏、细,位于Ⅰ类网纹之上,Ⅲ类网纹界线模糊,位于剖面上部。Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类网纹属于成熟的网纹,而Ⅲ类属于不成熟的网纹。对剖面中砂层的光释光测年表明,测量等效剂量时没有出现信号饱和的问题,年剂量也没有受风化作用的影响,因而OSL年龄可以视为砂层的沉积年龄。基于砂层的沉积年龄,我们判断成熟网纹层的沉积时代早于80 ka,不成熟网纹层的沉积时代略晚于71 ka,而早于29 ka。


    Sand hills distributed along shores of the Poyang Lake are composed of alternate eolian sand layers and silt layers. The Shaling sand hill, about 2 km in width and 5 km in length, is located in Liaohua Town of Xingzi County. On its north and west margins, three sections (SS1, SS2 and SS3) were investigated. Vermiculated mottles in this hill can be divided into three types. Vermiculated mottles of type Ⅰ are thick and dense and only occur in the lower part (layer 1) of section SS1. Vermiculated mottles of type Ⅱ are relatively thin and sparsely scattered and occur in the beds (layer 2) above type Ⅰ. Vermiculated mottles of type Ⅲ are indistinctly shaped and occur in the upper part (layer 5) of the section SS1and the upper part (layer 2) of the section SS2. A sand bed (layer 4) separates the vermiculated mottles of type Ⅲ from that of type I and type Ⅱ in section SS1. Vermiculated mottles of type Ⅲ cover a sand bed (layer 1) in section SS2. The section SS3 only comprises one sand bed (layer 1) and develops no vermiculated mottle. Vermiculated mottles of types I and type II are mature vermiculated mottles, whereas type Ⅲ are immature. OSL samples were collected from each sand bed. 125-250 μm quartz grains were separated from sand samples following the sequences of the standard pretreatment. The equivalent dose was measured using the Single Aliquot Regeneration protocol in the Laboratory of Surface Process of Nanjing University. The annual dose was determined by contents of U, Th and K measured using the neutron activation method in China Institute of Atomic Energy. In OSL dating of sand samples, no evidence indicates that the samples show OSL saturation signals and the annual dose of the samples was affected by weathering. So, the OSL ages can be interpreted as the deposition ages. The sand layers of Section SS1 and SS2 were deposited about 80 ka and 71 ka ago respectively and the sand layer of Section SS3 has been accumulated since 29 ka. From these OSL ages, it can be thought that the age of the layers with mature vermiculated mottles is older than 80 ka and the age of the layers with immature vermiculated mottles ranges from 71 ka to 29 ka. The top boundary age of vermiculated beds can be inferred to be 80-29 ka if the layers with immature vermiculated mottles are taken as the vermiculated beds. The top boundary age of vermiculated beds is older than 80 ka if the layers with mature vermiculated mottles are taken as the vermiculated beds. Both inferred top boundary ages are much younger than 400 ka, which was previously reported as the formation age of the vermiculated beds. However, this conclusion is drawn on three OSL ages in Shaling area and should be validated by other studies in the future.

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    基于GIS的4 ka B.P.气候事件前后甘青史前遗址分布分析
    侯光良,许长军,肖景义
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 116-120.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.116
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    甘青地区齐家文化较前期的马家窑分布北界南缩,整体海拔变低,是对4 ka B.P.事件中气候干旱和气温降低的响应。齐家遗址较马家窑分布更为稀疏,遗址最短距离变大,对河流的依赖性降低,这一变化与齐家文化时期畜牧业比重的增加相关。密度分析表明4 ka B.P.前后,马家窑聚落的单核心凝聚模式演变为齐家的多核心模式,极端气候事件使得农业生产能力和资源状况恶化,部落间战争频发,战争可能对父权制度的形成和冶炼技术的进步产生了一定的促进作用,在一定程度上导致甘青史前社会向复杂化发展。


    In Gansu-Qinghai Region, compared with the previous Majiayao culture, the distribution of Qijia culture’s northern boundary trended south and the overall elevation lowered, which is the response to 4 200 a B.P. extreme events of arid climate and temperature drop. Distribution of Qijia culture sites are sparser than Majiayao, the shortest distance between sites become larger and the dependence on the river reduced, which shows that animal husbandry came into being during the period of Qijia culture. Density analysis showed that Majiayao single-core condensed settlement model evolved into Qijia′s multi-core model around 4 ka B.P.,and it implies that Qijia community splited into several tribal groups .Extreme weather events caused the agricultural productivity decrease , resource deterioration and frequent inter-tribal war, which stimulated the formation of patriarchy and progress of smelting technology. So extreme weather events around 4 200 a B.P. promoted the production of animal husbandry, the establishment of patriarchy and the generation of smelting technology, eventually make the Gansu-Qinghai prehistoric society complicated and organized.

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    云南降水中稳定同位素变化的模拟和比较
    章新平,关华德,孙治安,孙广禄,张新主,吴华武
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (1): 121-128.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.01.121
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    利用MUGCM的模拟,云南地区日、月、年时间尺度下降水中稳定同位素的变化、降水量效应以及δD/δ18O之间的关系被分析。无论是在日时间尺度下还是在月、年时间尺度下,降水同位素均存在显著的降水量效应。与实测结果相比,模拟的降水中δ18O与降水量之间具有更强的相关性。对于单站而言,蒙自站和腾冲站的大气水线被较好地模拟。但在思茅站和昆明站,模拟结果未能准确再现实际降水中δD与δ18O的关系,模拟的大气水线斜率比实测结果偏高。这意味着,在云南这个特殊的地区,模式可能高估了HDO的贫化。


    Using the MUGCM simulations, the variation features of stable isotopes in precipitation, amount effect and relationship between δD and δ18O, on the diurnal, monthly and yearly time scales in Yunnan Province, China, are analyzed. There is significant amount effect for the isotopes in precipitation, whether on the diurnal time scale or on the monthly or the yearly time scales. Compared with the measured values, the simulated δ18O in precipitation shows the stronger correlation with precipitation. For the single station, the local meteoric water line (LMWL) is simulated well at Mengzi and Tengchong, however at Simao and Kunming, the simulated results do not reproduce truly the measured relationship between δD and δ18O in precipitation with the higher LMWL slopes, which implies that the model may overestimate the depletion of the HDO over such a particular areas like Yunnan.

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