回顾渤海海峡跨海通道建设研究的历史进程基础上,诠释了地缘政治理论与地缘政治战略,梳理了主要的中外地缘政治理论与地缘政治战略,明确指出地缘政治战略决定着大国竞争方向。中国是世界上地缘政治环境最复杂的国家,在中国周边长期存在着一个“V”字型地缘政治热点线,“V”字型地缘政治热点线贯穿中国周边的东南亚、东北亚、南亚、北亚、中亚五大地缘政治战略区,构成了中国的地缘政治“大棋局”。东南亚中国南海之争直接威胁到中国领土安全;目前东北亚已成为中国地缘政治关系热点中的热点;南亚存在着中印陆海长期之争;北亚俄罗斯将会成为战略合作伙伴;中亚复杂的地缘政治因素将长期影响着中国西北边疆的安全。研究表明,渤海海峡跨海通道建设对于中国实施地缘政治战略的重要意义在于：① 对下好中国的地缘政治“大棋局”起着重要的支撑作用;② 是“一带一路”战略破解美国亚太再平衡战略的重要构成要素;③ 对遏制东北亚局部战争、确保国家安全将发挥重要作用。渤海海峡跨海通道建设是一项世界级的大工程,投资建设的成本大,效益也大,同时风险也大。基于此,要汲取国内外世界级大工程建设的经验和教训,认真研究相关问题,不可急功近利草率上马。
Firstly, this article reviewed the research of the construction of Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway. The interpretation of the theory of geopolitics and geopolitical strategy, the main foreign geopolitics and geopolitical strategy were summarized. Then it clearly pointed out that the geopolitical strategy determines the direction of competitive power. China has the most complex geopolitical environment in the world, because the "V" shape geopolitical hot line exists around China for long time. China's geopolitical "great game" is made up of the "V" shape geopolitical hot line which passes through five geo-political strategy of district, surrounding China, such as Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, South Asia, North Asia, and Central Asia. The dispute over the South China Sea is a direct threat to the safety of China's territory. Northeast Asia has become a hot spot in China's geopolitical relations. There is a long-time battle between China and India in South Asia. Russia will become an important Strategic partner of China in North Asia. The complex geopolitical factors of Central Asia will affect China's northwest frontier safety for a long time. The great geopolitical game of China must be well played to ensure the safety of China's geopolitical strategic problem. The study shows that there is of great significance for the construction of trans-Bohai strait passageway and its geopolitical strategies of China. Firstly, the construction of trans-Bohai strait passageway is an important support for playing the great game of China's geopolitical. Then it is an important component of the “one belt one road” strategy which is to break the U.S. Asia Pacific rebalancing strategy. Third, it will play an important role in curbing the local war to ensure national security in Northeast Asia. Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway is a world-class project which has high cost, high income as well as high risk. So we must learn from the experience and lessons of domestic and foreign world-class engineering construction, as well as do research in all relevant issues and we should never be eager for quick back.
基于2003~2013年城市专利数据采用基尼系数、趋势面分析、空间动态面板数据模型等方法探讨了中国城市技术创新能力的空间分布和影响因素。研究发现：① 中国创新能力高的城市高度集聚在沿海三大区域及内地的区域中心城市,随着时间推移,创新能力在空间上呈现扩散的趋势。城市技术创新能力的空间相关性逐渐增强,推动了创新的区域扩散和空间溢出。② 发明专利、外观专利和实用新型专利的创新水平依次降低,空间集聚程度依次提高,空间相关性依次提高。③ 固定效应面板数据的空间滞后模型和空间Durbin模型的计量结果发现,城市技术创新能力存在显著的空间溢出效应,邻近城市技术创新能力的提升有助于提升该市的创新能力。政府支持、工业基础、高等教育资源、创新投入、经济外向度显著影响城市技术创新能力水平的提升,且政府支持和城市高等教育资源对城市技术创新能力的影响出现增强趋势。
The article explored the spatial pattern and determinants of Chinese urban innovative capabilities based on Gini index, trend surface analysis, spatial panel data model methods using urban patents data during 2003 to 2013. The results show that: 1) Spatial pattern of Chinese urban capabilities is highly agglomerated in center cities in three coastal metropolitan areas and regional center cities inland. The hot spots of innovation are highly agglomerated in regions around Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. Innovation abilities are spreading to inland cities with the time goes, although high innovative cities still agglomerated in coastal region. The Gini index of three patent output have decreased since 2011. 2) The technology level decreases with the invention patent, design patent, utility-patent, while the agglomeration level proxy by the Gini index, rises in sequence. 3) Spatial correlation of three kinds of patents is all significantly positive, and the correlation has been strengthened especially for appearance patent and utility patent. The correlation of appearance patent, utility patent and invention patent decrease in turn which indicates that lower technology can be spread and spillover more easily. The spatial trend surface analysis shows that there are high east and low west trend of innovative abilities, the north-south trend is not obvious, except for the utility patent show the inverse U shape of “high middle and low end” trend. 4) The results of spatial panel econometric models show that there are significant spillovers among urban innovative capabilities. The main influential factors include government support, industrial foundation, higher education sources, innovation input and economic openness, in which the influences of government support and higher education resources have been reinforced. The results show that dependent and independent variables have significant spatial dependence, indicates that urban abilities are heavily affected by the surrounding areas, the higher innovative surrounding areas can promote local innovative abilities. The spatial lag effect denotes that the high education resources and industrial foundation of neighboring cities have positive effects on cities innovation output, while the government support of neighboring cities have negative effect on urban innovation output. 5) Therefore, to promote urban innovation capabilities, government should still put forward the concept of innovation-driven concept, try to attract and nurture innovative enterprises; second, to promote urban higher education qualities and manufacture foundations, encourage enterprises to promote R&D input, and encourage the cooperation between industry, school and research; third, government should induce the innovation cooperation among cities, regions, and universities, drive the free flow of talents and innovative elements and promote the innovative spillovers among cites.
Compared with other regional urban areas, high-speed rail station has become a key strategic node of national space policy, not only because it is undergoing high intensity of investment, but also because it is witnessing greater pressure of development. It is necessary to shift the focus from the traffic node as it is to “node-city” planning, which includes space evolution and space optimization of industry in regions of High-speed railway (HSR) stations. Based on the progress of industry development in regions of typical HSR stations in foreign countries, and related theoretical frameworks including the growth pole theory and circle theory, this article aims to deduce the evolution characteristics, evolution mechanisms and different phases of industry space in regions of Nanjing Station, which is the key station of Shanghai-Nanjing Intercity high-speed railway. The questionnaires are surveyed including the passengers’ travel destination, traffic mode choice and the travel distance. Based on the enterprise database, we measure the change characteristics and investigate the dynamic mechanism of industry space in regions of HSR station before and after the opening in Nanjing. The research shows that, firstly, industry space has an obvious circle structure in regions of HSR station. In the initial stage of the opening, the concentric agglomeration as the center of HSR station is not obvious. On the contrary, the development intensity does not decrease from the site to the edge, that is to say, the core area is less than the affected area. Secondly, in addition to circle differentiation, layer agglomeration of industry space turned to be clear. Agglomeration level of business service industry, which is corresponding to the business affairs of passengers, is significantly higher than that of several other types of industry such as science and technology industry. Transportation and accommodation catering industry, as basic service industry in regions of HSR station, are between the above two categories. The spatial distribution patterns are generally identified in three modes of concentration. Business service industry and transportation industry have a "small scatter, large cluster" mode, that is, the spatial distribution of companies show relative concentration and form a single hotspot. Lastly, this article analyzes the dynamic mechanism of spatial structure evolution from both internal and external aspects. Besides traditional location factors such as traffic factor and agglomeration economy, industry property and land value have a great influence on the change of industry space in regions of HSR station before and after the opening in Nanjing. The results above confirm the kernel density estimation. In the end, we put forward some prospects for accessing the spatial effect in regions of HSR stations. Taking into consideration the time cost, the distance cost and other comprehensive transportation costs, the researchers synthetically reflect on the rationality of existing industry location, and put forward the direction of optimization and corresponding policy recommendations.
基于“生态优先”理念,提出一种利用生境质量评估策略的城市增长边界划定方法。结合ArcGIS和InVEST模型,通过综合评估生境自身及其在威胁情境下的质量,模拟各市独立规划、建设用地指标再分配及区域一体化发展的三类建设用地扩张情景,分别划定2024和2034年的长三角地区城市增长边界。结果表明：研究区生境质量总体呈南高北低格局,平均生态系统服务价值密度为10 770.604元/（hm2·a）,高质生境位于西南地区;根据指标再分配及一体化发展情景模拟的2024年研究区建设用地总量分别为10 583.273 km2和10 489.090 km2,2034年达到13 603.535 km2和13 252.370 km2;模拟的建设用地集中在东部沿海地区,并向北部及环杭州湾区域拓展;建设用地指标再分配能从整体上减少建设用地对优质生境的占用,区域一体化发展则能进一步降低城市发展造成的生态压力。
The world’s natural ecosystem provides products of 15 trillion pounds annually, but with the universal urban expansion caused by economic development, ecological balance is gradually disrupted. Therefore, it’s critical to maintain ecosystem stability in the identification of urban growth boundary, which is regarded as an effective tool to control urban sprawl. However, very few methods, currently, have taken ecosystem into their account. With the concept that “ecology goes first”, this article put forward a method to identify the urban growth boundary based on the evaluation of habitat quality. Using the platform of ArcGIS and InVEST model, two aspects of habitat quality were considered in the assessment: the quality of habitat itself and the quality under threats. As a representative of the former quality, ecosystem service value of each cell was calculated. As to the latter one, InVEST model was used to assess cells’ threatened degree. In the prediction of the amount of future construction land, three scenarios were developed. The first scenario was based on the assumption that cities had separate development and urban planning. The second scenario assumed that in spite of the separate planning, it’s possible to conduct the redistribution of construction land index. The third scenario ignored the boundaries of administrative jurisdiction and regarded the study area as a single. By selecting districts with lower habitat quality as construction land, the simulated urban growth boundary of the Yangtze River Delta in 2024 and 2034 were determined. The conclusions showed that habitat quality in the south of the Yangtze River Delta was overall higher than that in the north and the average density of ecosystem service values was 10 770.6 yuan/(hm2?yr). Habitat with higher quality was located in the southwest area, while the lower one was in the eastern district and Round Hangzhou Bay. By 2024, the predicted quantity of construction land have been to 10 583.27 km2 (scenario 1 and 2) and 10 489.09 km2 (scenario 3), and then have been to 13 603.53 km2 (scenario 1 and 2) and 13 252.37 km2 (scenario 3) by 2034. East coastal area would be the center of construction land, and the northern districts and Round Hangzhou Bay were considered to be the main expansion area. In order to avoid the occupation of construction land on habitats with higher quality as a whole, 9 cities were classified as emigration region of construction land index, and 5 cities were categorized as immigration area, and the left 2 cities were transition regions. Moreover, regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta could also helpfully mollify the contradictions between urban development and ecological protection. Policy recommendations on the identification of urban growth boundary were proposed at the end, while possible innovations and inadequacies of this article were also concluded.
Export is an essential factor of the transition and upgrading of the regional industrial structure in an open economic environment. As some spare parts in exports are from abroad and their value cannot be calculated in Chinese GDP, export structure is not a reasonable reflection of China’s international division of labor. Compared with exports value, domestic value-added in China’s exports is a better index to reflect the impact of export to domestic economy. On the other hand, there are huge differences in regional exports and its impact to local economic growth in China. So it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study on the regional distribution of value-added in China’s exports and their effects on advancement of regional industrial structure from the perspective of inter-regional horizontal comparison. In this article, regional distribution pattern of value-added in China’s exports was revealed by using a non-competitive multi-regional input-output table of China in 2010 and measuring the value-added in exports in 30 industries in 30 provinces and municipalities (not including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). Based on analyzing industrial structure evolution and optimization trends, Industrial Structure Advancement Index (AI) was proposed and used to calculate and compared the index value of value-added in exports and Gross Regional Product, in order to reveal the general rules of the value-added in China’s exports driving the regional industrial structure development. The results showed that, there were significant scale and structural differences between regional value-added in exports and Gross Regional Product in the study period. There was a clear east-central-west regions gradient difference (expect for Chongqing City) existing in regional manufacturing industrial structure advancement, but the differences of inter-regional service industrial structure advancement were negligible. Furthermore, the value-added in exports had a positive role in promoting manufacturing industrial structure advancement of 13 regions in China, including Guangdong, Beijing, Chongqing, etc. However, in service industry, expect for Guangdong and Chongqing, there was no positive impact on industrial structure advancement from value-added in exports. Moreover, general rules of the impact of value-added in exports on regional industrial structure advancement existed from the perspective of inter-regional horizontal comparison. The higher of industrial structure advancement of value-added in exports was, the more likely they promoted the advancement of regional industrial structure. Namely, the deeper and more advanced degree of the regions took part in the international division of labor, the stronger leading role in promoting industrial structure advancement exports played. On the contrary, the lower of industrial structure advancement was, the less significant role and even negative impediment in promoting regional industrial structure advancement it played. Therefore, structural difference of value-added in exports was one of the important factors that leads to "Matthew effect" of regional industrial structure. In conclusion, we propose that each region should optimize its industrial structure and value-added structure by adopting strategies such as innovation, spillover effects and extending industry chain, in order to further promote and achieve economic restructuring and upgrading.
China is experiencing the rapid transformation of urbanization, with mass population migration floating from rural provincial areas to large cities, which brings huge challenge for the authority to foster sustainable urban development. While right spatial policies always play important roles in urban development, powerful tools are needed to validate the empirical policies by modelling the urban spatial evolution process. Land-use/Transport Interaction Model (LUTI) has been used frequently in urban policy-making and scenario testing in developed countries. LUTI model are often used to answer questions like “what impacts on urban space could a certain amount of floorspace development in a certain zone bring? How would urban activity spatial pattern change if a highway be developed?” i.e. “what-if” questions. It has been proved especially useful in modelling urban spatial development process and developing sustainable policies. Notwithstanding the usefulness, the LUTI model deals with cities only thrills in developed countries, with rare application to rapidly growing cities of developing countries, especially China and related applications are also lacking. This article introduces the concept and origin of LUTI, reviews various LUTI models, model components and simulation techniques, and discusses the model strengths, weaknesses, challenges and development trends. According to LUTI theory, urban space is composed of two main parts, i.e. land use and transport. Urban development process is the interaction between urban land use and transport. The activity distribution (land use) along with land use policies and transport determine the accessibility of each zone and then the location of activities. A change in activity distribution causes the change of activity density or rent, and then accessibilities of zones are rebalanced. The process is repeated until the stopping criterion is met—the activity distribution difference between two successive iterations is below a predefined value.Based on the review and discussion, the article explores what contribution the model can make and how the model can be adjusted in China toward an urban policy modelling tool for decision makers. The challenges faced to develop the model theoretically are also discussed. The study is intended to extend the usage of LUTI models and promote the development in the discipline of Human Geography in China.
以广州市为例,从公交覆盖度、线网密度和覆盖效益3个方面考察广州市常规公交的空间演变特征,结合趋势外推法,预测广州市未来公交发展态势,总结常规公交空间演变规律。研究发现：① 建国以来,广州市内的常规公交经历了由“低效公平”的低级均衡向出行效率变高、公平性变低的转变,随后又出现了非均衡状况缓解、公平性上升的状态;② 结合对未来发展的预测,发现它有由低级均衡向高级均衡状态演变的趋势。比较广州在城市发展中所处的阶段,可以推论中国类似于广州这样发达的超大城市,市内公交状况大多处于上述演变过程的后半期,而大多数城市则处在这一演变过程的前半期。
The city bus provide convenient and fair transfer for citizens, how will the efficiency and fairness of city bus change with the expannding of the city? Developing public transport is essential for relieving urban traffic congestion and improving residential life quality. Bus (include transit bus and BRT) and urban rail Transit are two main models of public transportation in modern cities. Transit bus is widely used in Chinese cities with the characters of less investment, short building period and high accessibility. But current literatures have focused less on the spatial dynamic of transit bus, especially in the context of China’s rapid urban growth. Taking Guangzhou as a case study, this paper using three indicators (namely bus routes’ coverage degree, network density and coverage benefit) to describe the spatial evolution feature of transit bus. The paper, firstly collecting the history map of Guangzhou that includes 1954, 1967, 1975, 1987, 1995, 2000 and 2011, then using ArcGIS 9.3 to calculate the number, length and coverage area of Guangzhou transit bus, and then discussing the change trajectory of coverage degree, network density, area coverage benefit, population coverage benefit, lastly using projective forecasting to predict the development trends of given points in the future and to summarize the evolution law of transit bus. Research shows that 1) the transit efficiency of Guangzhou transit bus has experienced from a low degree to high degree, while the transit equity changes more complicated, firstly it falls from a low-level equilibrium and then begins rising in the late 1990s. 2) Using the linear prediction results, we find that Guangzhou transit bus will continue developing to a “high-efficient fair” stage. 3) By the evolutionary process of Guangzhou transit bus, it can be inferred that the transit bus obeys the law of changing from a “low-level balanced” stage to a “high-level balanced” stage, and it includes a transitional period in the middle of the process. It also indicates that mega-cities (eg. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen) are experiencing the second stage which changing from “low-efficient fair” to “high-efficient fair”, while other medium and small cities may be in the first stage or the first half of the transitional phase.
Implementing polycentric development strategy is seen, by substantial urban and regional planning, as the major policy instrument to achieve the objective of spatial balanced development in China. However, the question whether the polycentric spatial structure is economically efficient or not is not answered, especially the economic performance comparison between mono-centric and polycentric spatial structure. Based on classifying the relative theoretical and empirical studies on polycentric economic performance, this article concludes the following findings. Firstly, in theory, polycentric spatial structure can obtain agglomeration economy enjoyed by one single city under the same size through ‘borrowed size’, specialization and cooperation among cities, and relatively avoiding agglomeration diseconomy owing to the small size. Secondly, in practice, the consensus that polycentric spatial structure is economically efficient has not yet achieved owing to the heterogeneity of urban size, economic development level, geographical scale, functional connections and industrial type. In the end, we put forward some directions for domestic research and policy implications. The first priority is to build the academic framework for study on polycentric spatial structure, including spatial layout measurement, performance identification and mechanism analysis. What's more, deepening the characteristics identification and evolution analysis of polycentric spatial structure is necessary. For instance, we can make use of new techniques and methods, such as big data, to measure the spatial structure of different scales, and lay more emphasis on the functional linkage. Finally, we should pay more attention to the comparative study between China and foreign countries, for instance, analyzing the different roles of governments in the formation of polycentric spatial structure.
基于2000~2009年中国大中型企业数据库数据,利用产业转移承接指数、地区专业化和多样化指数、改进的偏离份额分析等方法,从时间、空间以及行业-区位等维度对河南承接制造业产业转移的时空格局进行研究。结果表明：① 时间趋势上,河南承接国内外制造业转移规模持续增大,承接行业类型显著增多;轻工业比重高于重工业,资本密集型行业明显增加。② 空间格局上,基本呈现出以中原城市群为中心的核心-外围模式,豫北地区承接制造业转移规模逐渐降低,而黄淮地区显著增强。各地市在制造业总体、轻工业、重工业以及劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型行业的承接上,呈现出增强型、减弱型、补缺型、抵消型等不同的特征;专业化和多样化承接的组合类型城市之间也明显不同,地市间承接制造业转移的行业存在雷同,但多数转移行业受地理临近性的影响不显著。③ 行业-区位组合上,劳动密集的轻工业和资本密集的重工业的集聚效应非常明显,而技术密集型行业对区位优势的指向性很强。
Based on the large and medium-sized enterprises database of China from 2000 to 2009, and by selecting the methods of industrial transfer undertaking index, regional specialization and diversity index, improved shift-share analysis, this article analyzed the temporal and spatial pattern of undertaking manufacturing industry transfer in Henan Province. The results showed that: 1) Since 2005, the scale of undertaking domestic and international manufacturing industry transfer has been increasing obviously; The undertaking proportion of light industry has been higher than the heavy industry; The amount of capital-intensive industry and the number of undertaking industry type have increased significantly. 2) The spatial pattern of undertaking manufacturing transfer presents core-periphery structure which is centered on Zhongyuan urban agglomeration; The undertaking trend in the northern Henan tends to be weak obviously, while the trend in Huanghuai economic zone increases significantly; The undertaking trends with reference to different industry types like manufacturing, light-heavy industry and factor-intensive industry in 18 municipalities could be classified four types: enhanced, weakened, fill vacancy and neutralized; The undertaking combination types of specialization and diversification in 18 municipalities are also different; The industries with the same sub-industry undertaking are often similar among cities, but the transfer of many manufacture industries is not obvious affected by geographical proximity. 3) The agglomeration effects in light and resource-intensive industry are very obvious, while the undertaking in technology-intensive industries preferred to those cities with location advantages.
以沿海生态地区黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例,运用组合类型方法测度空间均衡状态,得出以下结论：① 黄河三角洲高效生态区开发强度呈现中部和东翼高、西翼低的空间格局,资源环境承载能力呈现由东翼向西翼递减的空间格局;② 开发不足型、均衡型、过度开发型区域并存,东翼多为均衡型区域,中部和西翼多为过度开发区域,西翼偏北地区多为开发不足区域;③ 区域本底条件、区域发展阶段、产业集聚状态、空间集约程度、管控制度设计、区际关系结构等是影响空间均衡的重要因素。
Resources and environment is the carrier and foundation of human social and economic development. The rapid economic growth of the world and China caused severe problems of resources and environment after World War Ⅱ. After decades of rapid growth in the world, especially since 1950s, due to the one-sided pursuit of economic growth, paying a huge price of environmental pollution and destruction, many global problems such as global climate change, land degradation, severe desertification, serious water shortages, natural disasters, environmental pollution, migration of chemical substances, biodiversity loss and other issues presented to the public, and the impact of human activities on the geographical environment gradually. The research of man-land relationships is the eternal theme and the core of geography research, and promoting the sustainable development of man-land system is a long-term task to participate in social practice of the geography. Because of the heterogeneity of the geographical conditions, it is difficult to realize regional club convergence. The difference between the development pattern of regional economy is an objective fact, with no expansion of space or even out of control, it often leads to low economic efficiency, so we need redefine and reflection space equalization connotation. When the regional development activities of society and economy corporate with the spatial resources and environmental supply abilities, it can be understood that the region is in the balancing statement. In case of the coastal ecosystems, the Yellow River delta efficient ecological economic zone, the results of combination and coordination model measuring the statement of space balance approach show that the space development intensity of the zone is high in the middle, low on the wings, and the carrying ability of resources and environment decreases from east to west. And the spatial patterns present the less-development type, most in the north of the west area, the balanced-development type, most in the east area, and the over-development-type, most in the central and west area. The results also show that regional background conditions, regional development stage, industrial agglomeration state and intensive degree, the designing of management system, interregional relationship structure are the important factors influencing the spatial balance. The study provide not only a typical case of space balance, but also a reference and guidance for the coordinate development of the relationship between people and land area of coastal ecosystems.
Industrialization is the main driving force of China's urbanization. With the development of China's economy, its role needs to be reexamined. In this article, we investigate the dynamic relationship between industrialization and urbanization at provincial level in China with DEA framework. Using data on Chinese provincial industrialization, urbanization and pollution in 2001-2012, based on the index models of Malmquist and Malquist-Luenberger, we calculate conventional and environmental efficiency valuesof industrialization and relevant efficiency change indexes. Further, we analysis the effects of major influencing factorson these indexes, including economic growth, industrial development, economic openness and environmental protection. We find that: firstly, from the whole point of view, conventional and environmental urbanization efficiency is decreasing with the development of economy and the deepening of industrialization. So, under the current situation, it is not advisable to promote urbanization by encouraging industrialization on a national level. Secondly, the urbanization policy depends on regional circumstances. Eastern region has limited capacity to promote urbanization by industrialization. It should seek driving forces for urbanization other than manufacturing industry, such as service industry. Central region should adjust their developing strategy. It should alter the extensive mode of development to the intensive, and reduce resource consumption in industrial production. Western region still has space to accommodate urbanization growth with the help of industrialization. It is still feasible to elevate urbanization level through the development of industrialization. Thirdly, the analysis of tobit panel data model indicates that there exist two mechanisms in the urbanization process. The first one may be called “negative effect mechanism” and the second one may be called “positive feedback mechanism”. In the earlier stage of industrialization, the negative effect mechanism plays the leading role and makes the urbanization efficiency decrease. In the later stage of industrialization, the positive feedback mechanism takes part in and makes the urbanization efficiency increase through stimulating the development of service industry. Since the function of negative effect mechanism is inevitable, it needs to play role of externalities produced by industrialization to maximize the urbanization outputlevel. Fourthly, to realize the low-carbon developmentof urbanization, provincial governmentshould shift the development way of industrialization and economy, change the composition of foreign trade, and improve the performance of investment on pollution regulation.
分析世界遗产地西湖各小景点的景观功能性差异和西湖申遗成功后主要收费景区客流的时空分布特征,梳理出4类观测点,分别测算出其物理拥挤度和心理拥挤度,探讨两者的关系以甄别中国国情下的旅游心理拥挤的关键性物理影响因子。得出结论：① 世界遗产地西湖的物理拥挤和心理拥挤的表征关系为一个近似的坐标轴的关系;② 遗产地西湖在拥挤管理上应实行分象限管理。③ 中国情境下,世界遗产地西湖的游客心理拥挤的主要物理影响因素为景区面积和景区引导标识系统。
West Lake, the world heritage, is regarded as one of the most crowded tourist destinations in China. There are four kinds of samples in this article as the research objects. By analyzing the differences of the landscape function and the time and spatial distribution features of the tourist flow of the main charging scenic spot during 2012-2015 in the world heritage, West Lake, the author calculates the physical and psychological crowding degree of the four samples to discuss the relationships between the physical and psychological crowding. And the psychological crowding degree is calculated as following: The first is to get the crowding perception by Likert scale, and then establish regression equation with the tourist number. The next is to obtain the most appropriate psychological capacity (if y=3). Finally, to calculate the psychological crowding according to the actual amount of tourists number. Furthermore, the author attempts to find the key physical factors that have caused the psychological crowding. The result showed that: 1) The characterization relationship between the two crowding appears as an axis. 2) To West Lake, the governors should take measures of the hierarchical management. The ecological threshold is the maximum value of the physical capacity of the scenic spots located in the first quadrant where both of the physical and psychological crowding degrees are high. And the early-warning mechanism should be constructed for the scenic spots that are in the second quadrant, in which the physical crowding degree is high while the psychological is relatively low. To the spots in the third quadrant that both of the two types of crowding are low, popularity is the necessity to attract more tourists to participate in tourism activities, and for the fourth quadrant which the psychological crowding degree is much higher than the physical one, managers should pay special attention to the tourism atmosphere. 3) Under the situation of the China, the main influencing factors of the physical ones which affect the psychological crowding are the area and the guide signs of world heritage, and the functional relationship is =1.025×area-0.032×tourists number+0.634×guiding signs-0.005×attraction+0.027×cost.
Based on theoretical research on collective memory and field investigation in Chengkan Village in Huizhou District of Huangshan City, this article intends to discuss how cultural landscape works in constructing collective memory, comprehensively using ArcGIS spatial analysis, independent sample t test and other methods. It shows that both residents and tourists have formed collective memory of clan culture and Chinese geomantic culture in Chengkan ancient village. And local cultural landscapes like Luo Dongshu shrine and Water Gap Garden play significant positive effects in constructing local collective memory. However, since the residents and visitors contact with the local landscapes in different ways, residents care more about the authenticity of landscapes than tourists, relatively reject the rebuilt and newly-built cultural landscapes and take little care of tour guide presentation. On the contrary, both cultural landscapes and tour guide presentation can affect the construction of tourists’ local memory. Therefore, to optimize the construction of local collective memory of historic villages, not only the traditional local cultural landscapes should be protected, the suggestion of the residents should also be attached importance in the process of rebuilding cultural landscapes or building new ones, which may be important for achieving the balance between the residents’ traditional idea and tourists’ imagination.
This article researched into the pig’s circulation in China by using data visualization and combined analysis of the current status of pig’s circulation and the Chinese urban agglomeration. At the end of the study, the results showed the spatial distribution pattern of pigs in China based on the status quo of the development of urban agglomeration, and provided the basis for policy formulation for the relevant agricultural sector. In this article, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi and municipalities were chosen as the research object. Firstly, statistical data on pigs was integrated with GIS data, remote sensing data and network data to result in an integrated multi-source data. When big data technology and GIS was used to visualize this integrated multi-source data we can get the status quo of pig’s circulation in 19 provinces and municipalities. The visualization process was based on the New national urbanization plan (2014-2020) and the results of previous studies for dividing China into urban agglomeration. The results of the study was due to the combined analysis of the status quo of the pig’s circulation and the visualization results of the urban agglomeration in china. The study summed up the current situation of the pigs circulation of the city group to get the spatial distribution pattern of pigs based on the development of urban agglomeration in China. Finally, the problems of the distribution pattern of pigs in China was analyzed to give the corresponding solutions. According to the analysis of the spatial distribution of pigs, the research object was divided into 4 categories: The first category showed that the region needs to be supplied with a large number of pigs, including Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong; The second category showed that, the region have both pigs inflow and outflow, including the three northeastern provinces, Henan, Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan; The third category showed that, live pigs move out of the region including Hebei, Anhui, Yunnan, Guangxi; The fourth category is Chongqing, there is not a lot of pigs inflow and outflow. Beijing, Tianjin city group, the Yellow River Delta city group and the Zhujiang River Delta city group is the most important pork consumption areas, 69.6% of the pigs flow is related to the three groups. The main pigs production areas are concentrated in the middle, the east, the southwest and the northeast of China, and the east and southeast coastal areas are the main pigs consumption—it can be summarized as ‘pigs of the west supply in the east, pigs of the north supply in the south’. The eastern coastal areas are the most important part of the pig’s circulation system in China, the production and consumption of the pigs in the eastern coastal areas is the key factor for the change of the pig’s circulation pattern in China.
This essay explores the spatial distribution, clustering features and influence factors of bulk commodity delivery warehouses in China. In this study, we selected 579 bulk commodity delivery warehouses in China in 2015 as the research object.Then we mainly used the softwares ArcGIS and OpenGeoDA to figure out the spatial distribution characteristics. We input the datebase into the ArcGIS software, and using join method to count the amount of the bulk commodity delivery warehouses in 31 provincial areas of China. Firstly we find that the amount of bulk commodity delivery warehouses is uneven distributed. Delivery warehouses are mainly located in southeast coastal area. Then we successively using research methods as Kernel density estimation, exploratory spatial analysis and geographical detector and so on. We find that there exist outstanding differences in the Kernel density estimation results. South Jiangsu Province, Shanghai, North Zhejiang, Guangdong Province, North Hebei, Tianjin and part of Shandong Province show high value in Kernel density, while the value in the provinces as Guangxi, Hubei, Liaoning, Henan is low and that the provinces of northwest area is extremely low. Thirdly, we adopt the spatial clustering method to estimate the distribution of bulk commodity delivery warehouses. Then the figures confirmed that it does have the characteristic of spatial agglomeration. Delivery warehouses are remarkably agglomerated in Anhui province, Zhejiang Province and Guangdong Province; Delivery warehouses distributed dispersedly in Hebei province, Shandong Province, Hubei Province, Jiangxi Province, Gansu Province and Sichuan Province. To find the most important factors which influence the distribution of the bulk commodity delivery warehouses, we choose geography detective model. We finally find that the Primary factors having impacts on spatial distribution of bulk commodity delivery warehouses are the level of regional economy and total volume of foreign trade; Agricultural output and GDP have less impact on the bulk commodity delivery warehouses distribution; especially, the distribution of resource has no influence on the distribution of the delivery warehouses. Based on the conclusions above, we recommended that our government should advance the planning skills and make the delivery warehouse development planning more reasonable. So that we can avoid extra construction and avoid the wasting of resources, then we may avoid a vicious competition. In addition, we should innovative customs clearance mode, accelerate the commodity of wharf and yard construction, strengthen the international logistics enterprises in the introduction and emphases Chinese logistics support. Then through the use of tax relief, land concessions, simplify approval and registration procedures. Anyhow, to find other ways to build a good investment environment and further optimize the layout of China's commodity futures delivery warehouse space.
以西塘古镇为案例地,利用问卷调查所获取的数据,通过层次回归分析的方法,探讨了重游意愿的形成机制以及不同求新动机水平下旅游者重游意愿的差异。结果表明： ① 满意度和地方依恋对短期、中期和长期重游意愿均有显著影响,求新动机仅对长期重游意愿有显著影响,而目的地形象对重游意愿的影响未达显著水平。② 求新动机对目的地形象与短期、中期和长期重游意愿的关系存在正向调节作用,不同求新动机水平下,目的地形象对重游意愿的影响程度不同。即随着求新动机增强,目的地形象对重游意愿的作用得到加强。③ 求新动机对满意度与短期、中期和长期重游意愿的关系存在负向调节作用,不同求新动机水平下,满意度对重游意愿的影响程度不同。即随着求新动机增强,满意度对重游意愿的作用削弱。④ 求新动机对地方依恋与重游意愿的关系不存在显著调节作用。
Revisit ratio has been accepted as one of the most important representation of the life cycle of resorts. It is economical and efficient for travel destinations to enhance tourists’ revisit intention, and then to boost revisit ratio. Because of the significance, revisit intention has been a popular topic in academia both at home and abroad. To understand the mechanism of the revisit intention, we establish a theoretical model to study the revisit intentions in different time, and frames and the moderating effect of novelty-seeking on the formation of revisit intention. In this article, we segregate revisit intention into short-term (travelers with revisit intention within 1 year), mid-term (revisit intention in 3 years) and long-term (beyond 3 years); take destination image, satisfaction and place attachment as independent variables; and novelty-seeking as moderating variable. With SPSS 19.0 and data collected in Xitang Ancient Town, the theoretical model is tested by the method of hierarchical regression analysis. Results indicate that, firstly, both satisfaction and place attachment are significant antecedents of short-, mid- and long-term revisit intention; destination image is not a significant direct influence factor of revisit intention; and novelty-seeking significantly affects long-term revisit intention. Secondly, novelty-seeking can significantly moderate the relationship between destination image and revisit intention in different period. The novelty-seeking is positively correlated with the positive effect of destination image on revisit intention. Because of this strong moderating effect, when low novelty seekers have a relatively higher proportion among the sample, the main effect of destination image on revisit intention will be weakened significantly, and this might explain the insignificant relationship between destination image and revisit intention. Thirdly, novelty-seeking has a negative moderating effect on the relationship between satisfaction and revisit intention in different periods. As the level of novelty-seeking increases, the main effect of satisfaction on revisit intention is diminished. Since high novelty seekers constantly pursue variety, they do not require total satisfaction during the travel. In contrast, low novelty seekers are highly sensitive to satisfaction; whether they are satisfied with the destination or not is a pivotal factor to make a revisit decision. Finally, the moderating effect of novelty-seeking on the relationship between place attachment and revisit intention in different periods is not significant, which means the main effect of place attachment on revisit intention has little relation with novelty-seeking. Above all, to Xitang ancient town, or any other similar destinations, tourism marketers should pay attention to tourists’ emotional identity and dependence to the destination and enhance tourist satisfaction, in order to improve revisit rate and develop customer loyalty. Since novelty-seeking can moderate the formation of revisit intention, tourism destination is expected to group travelers by the level of novelty-seeking, and develop personalized services for different groups to generate unique tourist experiences and to stimulate the will to return. This study contributes to tourism theory on the formation mechanism of revisit intention. Meanwhile, the findings will help travel destinations to make efficient marketing strategies.
To coordinate the relationships between resource and environmental capacities of coastal zone and sustainable social economic development is the hotspots concerned by the government agencies and societies. Tidal flat is one of the most important resources in the coastal zone. How to identify tidal flat resources development mode and spatial function arrangement is an important scientific problem which needed to be solved in the integrated coastal zone management, it plays an important role in promoting sustainable development in the coastal area. Based on literature review of the integrated coastal zone management, the relationship between resources and social-economic conditions and evolution laws of the tidal flat development mode in coastal area is explored. Integrated with resources conditions, tidal flat developing history and regional development background analysis in Nantong coastal zone, this article proposes that comprehensive tidal flat developing mode which includes ecological protection and tourism, agricultural production and industrial-town development should be carried out in the future. Later, the logical route and the method of spatial arrangement of different economic and social activities are discussed integrated with the management of key ecological area, coordination and cooperation among multi-sectors and suitability assessment support. Empirical analysis of coastal zone in Nantong City shows that except for allocating space for tidal flat tourism, agriculture, harbor-industrial and town, we should also reserve large tidal flat area for the next generation. After coordinated with different planning covering the coastal zone area, the area proportion of different economic activities were identified, they were 23.5%, 32.7% and 43.8%.The spatial configuration results is obtained as follows, tidal flat for ecological protection and tourism are mainly distributed in eastern part of the Mafeng River and the eastern part of the Yaowanggang River, tidal flat for agriculture are concentrated in eastern part of Rutai river and the southern part of the Yaowanggang River, tidal flat for harbor-industrial and town are mainly distributed in northern part of Juekan river and southern part of radial sand ridges of Yao. Finally, this article explores spatial management rules to enhance the dominant function of different areas, and optimize the configuration of production factors, including economic activities agglomeration scale control, the use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers restrict, and waste disposal central control, which can provide an scientific guidance for tidal flat resources sustainable development. This study also indicates that the coordination regimes among different sectors should be explored deeply in the further.
选择柴达木盆地马海盐湖作为研究对象,在研究区布置给水度采样点11处,采样深度1.61~148.5 m,采集给水度样品75件。结合研究区以往37处采样点的72个测试数据,共计取得48处采样点145个测试数据。根据给水度实测数据,采用数理统计方法分析了柴达木盆地马海盐湖卤水层给水度分布变化。其主要特征表现为：① 给水度在水平方向上表现出较大的差异性,卤水层WⅠ至WⅤ的给水度分别介于0~0.263 5、0.009 4~0.209 9、0~0.277 8、0.006 2~0.135 9、0~0.107 7。在采样点MHK-022~MHK-026处,各卤水层给水度值较小,均小于0.06。在盐湖东北部,各卤水层给水度值较大,均大于0.08。② 给水度在垂直方向上受地层静压力的影响随着深度的增加而减小,上部卤水层WⅠ的给水度均值为0.105,下部卤水层WⅤ的给水度均值已降至0.038 7,不足卤水层WⅠ给水度均值的40%。③ 给水度在垂直方向上还表现出旋回性的变化特征,这种沉积旋回的出现可能是对成盐期间气候波动的反映。
Select the Mahai Saline Lake in Qaidam Basin as an object of study. A total of 75 specific yield samples were collected from 11 sampling points in the research area, and the depth range is 1.61-148.5 m. The previous testing data of 72 specific yield samples were collected from 37 sampling points in the research area were obtained. We totally got 145 specific yield samples from 48 sampling points. According to the measured specific yield data, adopting mathematical statistics methods to analyze the qaidam basin mohair salt lake brine formations, distribution of water level changes. The specific yield in brine aquifer characteristics of distribution and variation of the saline lake in Qaidam Basin is studied by statistical analysis. It is found that: 1) There are larger difference of specific yield in the horizontal direction. The data of WⅠ to WⅤ brine aquifer are between 0-0.263 5, 0.009 4-0.209 9, 0.006 2-0.135 9, 0.006 2-0.135 9, 0-0.107 7. The specific yield of different brine aquifers have smaller values in the sample point MHK-022 to MHK-026, and the average is less than 0.06. While in the northeast of the salt lake, the specific yield of different brine aquifers have bigger values and the average is greater than 0.08. 2) Specific yield in the vertical direction affected by the hydrostatic pressure of strata. With the increase of the depth the specific yield were decreases. 3) Specific yield in the vertical direction also shows cyclicity change characteristics. The emergence of the depositional cycle may be right to reflect climate fluctuations during the period of the salt deposits.
根据国家气候中心最新颁布的华南前汛期业务监测标准,采用小波分析、合成分析、相关分析等统计方法研究了1961~2014年华南前汛期入汛日期、出汛日期、持续时间及前汛期累计降水量异常的变异特征。结果表明：华南前汛期入汛日期的年际变化特征主要表现为7~8 a及准2 a周期,年代际变化特征主要表现为20世纪60至70年代入汛偏晚,80年代入汛偏早;华南前汛期出汛日期的年际变化特征主要表现为6~7 a周期,年代际变化特征表现为20世纪60年代中期前出汛偏早,70年代中期以来出汛偏早。华南前汛期入汛早晚对其持续时间及累计降水量有很好的指示意义,表现为入汛越早,华南前汛期持续时间偏长的可能性越大,对应前汛期累计降水量偏多。
Using the latest monitoring standard of the first rainy season in South China issued by National Climate Center, the characteristics of the onset date (ODFRS), the ending date(EDFRS), the duration and the precipitation of the first rainy season in South China were analyzed by utilizing the wavelet transform method and the composite as well ascorrelative analysisstatistical methods. The results showed that there were 7-8 years and quasi-2 years oscillation cycles of the ODFRS. The decadal variation indicates the ODFRS were later than normal from the 1960s to 1970s while they were earlier in the 1980s. The EDFRS has 6-7 years oscillation cycles, and they were in the earlier during the middle of 1960s, but gradually advanced after the middle of 1970s. The ODFRS in South China has indicative function to the duration time and the precipitation of the first rainy season in South China. The earlier the ODFRS comes, the more likely that the first rainy season will be longer. Correspondingly, the precipitation will be above normal.