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ISSN 1000-0690
CN 22-1124/P
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  • 地理科学
      2013年, 第33卷, 第1期 刊出日期:2013-01-20 上一期    下一期
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    基于agent的两区域旅游系统非均衡动态模拟
    薛领,翁瑾,吴春萍
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 1-7.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.1
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (566KB)

    建立中国沿海与内陆两区域旅游系统模型,在空间经济学演绎模型的基础上,通过基于agent建模(agent-based modeling)的计算实验方法,探讨市场需求、区域间和区域内旅游产品的替代弹性、固定成本投入以及区位和交通条件等影响因素对区域旅游系统演化的非均衡动态过程。模拟表明,旅游往往集聚在具有区位优势、规模经济和消费能力的沿海地区,而交通条件的持续改善、沿海与内陆区域间以及区域内部旅游产品和服务的持续差异化将有助于加快中国内陆地区旅游产业的空间集聚过程,并且收入水平越高、外部需求越大对区域旅游系统的动态影响越大。


    In recent years, tourism in China have experienced a period of rapid growth. This article builds a mathematic model based on asymmetric monopolistic competition, scale economy, spatial cost, preference for variety, and product/service differentiations between inland and coastal regions in China. To overcome the weakness of traditional deductive model and equilibrium analysis in tourism research, the article puts forward an approach to integrate economic model with agent-based modeling for better understanding the evolutional process of tourism systems in different scenarios. The TourSwarm, a computational environment we developed, contains multiple economic interactions between tourist and firm agents that are crucial in understanding dynamic process and mechanism because the basic force driving the tourism system is inherently microscopic. This parallel processing agent-based approach has shown various advantages over existing economic approaches such as neoclassical model and equilibrium analysis. By using agent-based modeling and out-of-equilibrium simulation, this article gives a detailed discussion on the impact factors such as continuous decline of transport cost to inland region, continuous decline of substitution elasticity between inland and coast region, continuous decline of substitution elasticity of product and service in inland region. TourSwarm shows that 1) tourism tends to congregate in the coastal region with advantages of location, more demands and scale economy, and 2) the continuous reduction of travel cost and regional differentialization and product/service differentialization could change the systematic state between inland and coastal region significantly and accelerate the dynamic process of tourism agglomeration in some region. In conclusion, the main engine of recent rapid changes in tourism system is the major reduction of transport costs for people through transportation development in China. Due to love-of-varieties, the specialization and diversity of tourist products contribute much to the emergence of tourism in inland region by continuous innovation and difference-making competition strategy. The greater the gap of fixed cost between the inland and coastal region is, the more imbalanced tourism distribution would be, and more easy to form the core-periphery structure. Inland region should pay close attention to improve on its own infrastructure such as facilities and transportations. What's more vital is that the domestic demand of tourism is key to change the spatial structure of tourism system between inland and coastal region in China.

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    基于叙述性偏好法的城市居住环境质量评价方法研究
    赵倩,王德,朱玮
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 8-8.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.8
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (449KB)

    借鉴已有经验,以上海杨浦区为例探索叙述性偏好法在居住环境质量评价中的应用。构建评价指标体系,通过叙述性偏好法调查与离散选择模型的拟合,得到各要素指标的权重值。结果表明,模型的可解释性较好;权重值比较发现,便利性和安全性要素相比舒适性要素对居住环境质量影响更大;舒适性要素中的环境负荷要素和安全性类要素条件降低时,维持居住环境质量不变需要的其他要素补偿更大。对不同人群的评价结果比较发现,低学历、女性、老年人、低收入等人群对影响日常生活的基本要素(如医院距离、噪音水平等)更加敏感,在基本要素水平降低时维持原居住环境水平需要的补偿更高。


    Quality of Residential Environment (QRE) is becoming an important goal of modern society. With the rapid advancement of urbanization in China, many issues are emerging in fields of the society, space, security and so on. Urban residents have been increasingly concerned about the QRE that reflects their actual living conditions. As a result, urban planners have been studying the evaluation of QRE in terms of residential environment since the 1980s. A variety of evaluation methods have been explored, among which economic models have been increasingly used for QRE evaluation in recent years. The purpose of this study is to build a system for evaluating residential environment of Chinese cities, by exploring the mechanisms of the elements influencing the quality of residential environment. Stated preference method (SP), a mature approach in the areas of environmental impact assessment, is used to estimate the influence based on the data of residents’ choices from the virtual urban environments composed of elements that considered important for defining quality of residential environment. Yangpu District of Shanghai was taken as the example. Firstly, a pilot survey was implemented, which asks the residents to choose the elements influencing the quality of residential environment most. A system of residential environment evaluation is proposed, focusing on 3 indexes including convenience, comfort and security. Each index includes 4 sub-indexes. Secondly, residents’ preference data were obtained through SP surveys. Then the evaluation functions taking into account convenience, comfort and security of living environment were estimated based on discrete choice models. At last the results of the SP survey and modeling were validated with a comparative analysis on separate elements’ impact on QRE. The validation results show that the models of the convenience, comfort and the comprehensive elements were well fitted, while the model of the security fitted relatively poorly. The case study in Yangpu District shows that elements of convenience and comfort have more influences on QRE evaluation than elements of security. To maintain certain QRE, more improvements of other elements are needed for compensating the ambient noise and security elements’ decline. It is also found that people who are low-educated, female, old, with low income are more sensitive to the basic elements that affect their daily lives. When the level of basic elements decline, residents need more compensation from other elements to keep up their QRE level.

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    城镇化质量与城镇化规模的协调性研究——以江苏省为例
    张春梅,张小林,吴启焰,李红波
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 16-22.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.16
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (590KB)

    城镇化质量和规模是城镇化进程的2个方面,二者相互依赖相互制约,认清其间的关系对健康城镇化建设具有重要意义。在界定二者概念的基础上,通过构建测评指标体系对其进行测度,然后基于改进的象限图分类识别方法对江苏省13个地级市两者之间的协调发展关系进行分析,结果表明:① 江苏省城镇化质量和规模之间的协调发展关系逐渐由低水平向高水平、由城镇化质量滞后规模程度较大的滞后型经城镇化质量与规模协调型向城镇化质量超前规模程度较大的超前型转变;② 江苏省城镇化质量和规模之间的协调发展关系存在着明显的苏南、苏中和苏北的空间分异。在此基础上提出当前江苏省城镇化规模滞后于城镇化质量的现象值得关注,同时要因地制宜地分类指导城镇化建设。


    With the rapid progress of urbanization in China, a series of problems such as the traffic congestion, resource depletion, environmental pollution, ecological damage, etc., have become increasingly serious. At this time, the central government of China proposes the goal of "promoting the healthy development of urbanization". In this historical background, the problem of the healthy development of China becomes the research focus of domestic and foreign scholars. In this article, from the perspective of the coordination about the quality and scale of urbanization, the health conditions of the process of urbanization in Jiangsu are analyzed in order to provide the basis for the government to develop the macro-control policies and a reference for the other parts of China. Quality and scale is two aspects of the urbanization process, which are dependent and restraint each other. Recognizing their relationships is important for healthy urbanization. On the basis of defining the concept of quality and scale of urbanization, the quality and scale of urbanization about 13 provincial cities in Jiangsu Province are measured by the evaluation index system, then the coordinated development relations between them are analyzed by the improved quadrant method of classification and recognition. The result shows that: First, the coordinated developing relations between quality and scale of urbanization in Jiangsu are gradually turning to the high level from the low level and changing to the coordination type from the larger delay-type of quality urbanization and to the larger ahead-type of quality urbanization from the coordination type. Second, there are apparent spatial heterogeneities of southern and middle and northern Jiangsu in the coordinated developing relations between quality and scale of urbanization. On the basis of them, the phenomenon of scale lagging behind quality of urbanization in Jiangsu is worthy of attention now, at the same time, the varied development policies of urbanization are necessary to guide the building of the urbanization according to local conditions.

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    南京大学文化地理学研究进展
    张敏,张捷,姚磊
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 23-28.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.23
    摘要   PDF (378KB)

    与中国人文地理学的全面复兴和近年来文化地理学的迅速发展相一致,南京大学文化地理学主要在21世纪之后才开始快速发展起来,研究内容涉及文化景观、地域文化、文化现象的传播与扩散等中国文化地理学各基础领域。最近,有关空间的文化研究,如空间的符号与表征、地方与认同、空间的生产,以及对城市的聚焦、与社会、经济的交叉等成为新的研究趋向,呈现出新文化地理学的特征。南京大学文化地理学的应用研究也在不断拓展,如旅游研究与规划、城市文化保护与文化发展、文化产业研究与规划等。在全球化背景下,对当代中国城市文化的研究和中国特色的文化符号景观研究方面逐步形成特色,是未来具有国际对话潜力的文化地理学研究领域。


    Along with the renaissance of human geography and the rapid development of cultural geography in China in recent years, cultural geography studies at Nanjing University are developing rapidly in the 21st century. Besides the traditional aspects of cultural geography, such as cultural landscape, regional culture, and spread and diffusion of the cultural phenomena, there are many new research fields have been derived, which represents the future direction and characteristics of new cultural geography’s study, such as symbol and representation of space, local and identity, the sense of place, place attachment, the production of space, feminist study, focusing on the urban and crossing study with social and economic study. Based on the interdisciplinary study in urban geography, economic geography and tourism geography, etc., the cultural geography research group at Nanjing University extends the traditional research to varient areas, such as the cultural mechanism of urbanization, urban spatial reconstruction, urban development, the shaping of urban cultural spaces, and many applied areas, especially of tourism research and planning, urban cultural preservation and cultural development, cultural industries’ research and planning. Turning to medium and micro scale, especially the city and sub-city scale, the cultural geography of Nanjing University has done more contribution. Their experience shows that there are more efforts needed to explore the new cultural geography approaches which can be applied to urban development and planning consultation, to push the innovation of theories and methods which should uphold and develop the human geography’s core theory of ‘human and land’ relationship, to avoid the dangerous of being de-geographic and pan-cultural, to pay more attention to the value of Chinese culture, to avoid the dangerous of being de-China. In the context of globalization, the cultural and symbolic landscape of contemporary urban culture with Chinese characteristics has been a markable characteristic of cultural geography study at Nanjing University, which has the potential for international exchange in cultural geography research areas.

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    南京大学社会地理学发展与展望
    沈丽珍,甄峰,黄贤金
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 29-35.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.29
    摘要   PDF (409KB)

    南京大学是中国地理学教育和研究的重要基地,通过对南京大学社会地理学研究成果的梳理,把握中国社会地理学发展的基本脉络,为发展具有中国特色的社会地理学提供有益借鉴。南京大学社会地理学的发展紧跟国际社会地理学的研究热点,具有强烈的学科开拓性与创新性,一直以来其成为引领中国社会地理学,特别是城市社会地理学研究的重要力量。初期研究成果主要体现在对社会地理学性质与内容的研究上,近期的主要研究领域包括人口、城市社会地理学、乡村社会地理学及相关社会问题的研究。研究内容涉及人口分布规律、人口统计与表达方法、流动人口、女性地理学、城市空间、社会空间分异、城市管治、城市贫困、乡村经济、乡村城市化、乡村聚落、乡村土地利用以及信息社会的地理学等多个方面。处于社会转型期的中国迫切需要地理研究者对具有空间地域特征的社会现象进行分析和归纳,吸收国外社会地理学的理论和方法,结合中国的社会实际,逐步建立中国式的社会地理学,这是中国社会地理学发展的宏观背景。


    The geography of Nanjing University is one of the important basis for geography education and research in China. The study on the achievements of the social geography in Nanjing University can outline the basic context of the development of Chinese social geography, and then provide some useful references to the social geography of the development Chinese characteristics. The development of the social geography of Nanjing University follows the research focus of the international social geography, with a strong sense of discipline pioneering and innovative, and it has become a leading part of social geography, in particular its important research efforts to the study of urban social geography. The initial research results is in the fields of the concept and content of the social geography. Recently research interests include population, urban geography, rural geography and the study of related social problems. The study fields include population distribution, demographics and expression, women, geography, urban space, differentiation of social space, urban governance, urban poverty, rural economy, rural urbanization, rural settlements, rural land use and the geography of information society. The social geography of China is gradually maturing, and the social factors are more important than beforein the impact on the economic development, so there is an urgent need to analyze these social phenomena with the features of space of places. In the social transformation, China urgently needs geographical researchers to analyze and summarize the social phenomenon with the features of spatial geography, absorb theories and methods from foreign social geography, combine with Chinese social reality and establish gradually the Chinese social geography, which is the macro background of the development of Chinese social geography.

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    近30年来兰州市人口密度空间演变及其形成机制
    张志斌,潘晶,李小虎
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 36-44.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.36
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (512KB)

    以街区层面的人口统计数据为基础,综合应用ArcGIS和GS+Version7软件对近30 a来兰州市人口密度空间演变进行分析。结果表明:1982~2009年,随着空间距离的增加,人口密度的正相关性逐渐削弱,负相关性逐渐增强。人口密度总体上呈不断增大的趋势,人口分布不均衡性和聚集性逐年增强,整体呈现出东高西低格局,以城关区和西固区为增长顶点形成“双核心”空间结构。高密度人口分布偏东,主要集中在城关区和七里河区。人口重心级别不同,所在街区面积不同,高人口密度街区面积小,低人口密度街区面积大。其形成机制主要缘于自然因素、历史因素、政策因素和经济因素等方面。


    Base on the demographic data at a district level, the article analyzed the spatial evolution of population density in Lanzhou in recent 30 years, by a comprehensive application of software ArcGIS and GS+Version7. The result shows that: 1) in the evolution of spatial pattern in population density of Lanzhou, with the growth of spatial distance, the positive correlation of population density was gradually weakening and the negative correlation was gradually strengthening in 1982-2009. The spatial autocorrelation range has been continuously increased. The influence coverage of the high density area on the low density area has been increasing year by year. The random elements that arouse the spatial difference in population density are increasing continuously, and structure differentiation that space correlation causes is more and more outstanding. The regional difference in population density distribution was enlarging as a whole. It can be predicted that, in the near future, the difference remains and in a short term there will no any great changes. This illustrates that population distribution in Lanzhou is always in an imbalanced state. 2) From the changes of population density gravity in different years, it can be seen that, the population distribution is partially on the east. The tendency of space pattern in population distribution shows its regularity, which is high on the east and low on the west as a whole. In two-center space pattern formed by increase peak in Chengguan District and Xigu District, the population density is gradually reducing from center to the surrounding. The general tendency of population density in different years changes little. The high and low population gravities focus on Chengguan District and Qilihe District, which shows the gradual and stable eastward tendency and low population density center is moving at a relatively speed. The moving directions of the gravity of high and medium population density and low population density are opposite, which shows that the difference of population density in districts is enlarging. Meanwhile, as for high population gravity and medium density center, the area of research units of population gravity at the different levels is different. The district area which is high in population density is commonly small, and the district area that is low in population density is generally large. 3) The differences in population density of the districts in main urban areas existed in 30 years ago. And the revolution is under combined influences by nature element, history element, policy element and economy element. Among them, nature element is the direct factor that influences population density; history element is the key factor that influences the difference in population density; policy element plays a controlling and leading role in the revolution of space structure in a city; the difference in social and economic development directly influences mechanical growth of population, and makes population gravity transfer. Therefore, economy element is the decisive factor that influences population density distribution.

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    陇中黄土丘陵区乡村聚落空间分布特征及其基本类型分析——以甘肃省秦安县为例
    郭晓东,马利邦,张启媛
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 45-51.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.45
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (740KB)

    以甘肃省秦安县为例,基于GIS与统计分析方法,分析了县域乡村聚落空间分布的基本特征与乡村聚落的基本类型。研究结果表明:① 秦安县乡村聚落密度较高且聚落空间分布极为分散;② 乡村聚落的空间分布与海拔、坡度、河流等自然地理条件密切相关,聚落斑块随高程和坡度变化呈明显的正态分布,空间分布差异显著;③ 秦安县复杂多样的乡村聚落类型,与聚落的空间分布特征密切相关且存在明显的对应关系,大中型、集聚型、商品经济型和半商品经济型乡村聚落主要分布在河谷川道地区,而小型、分散型、传统农业型和劳务输出型乡村聚落主要分布在黄土丘陵山区。


    The rural population distribution depends on the rural settlement that is an important site for the working and living of rural people. It has very important significance to analyze on the spatial distribution characteristics and the law of spatial evolution of the rural settlement for optimizing the rural settlement spatial layout and promoting the construction of a new socialist countryside and the integration of urban and rural development. Taking Qin'an County of Gansu Province as a case, this article analyses the essential characteristic of spatial distribution of rural settlement based on GIS and statistical analysis technique. The results of the research show that: 1) the inside rural settlement of Qin'an County is dense and its spatial distribution is extremely scattered, which is formed after a long spatial diffusion process of the original settlement. With the increasing growth of population, the limited arable land fail to gradually meet the need for the life of settlement population in its effective farming radius, so people have been forced to spread gradually to possible living space; 2) the spatial distribution of rural settlement is closely related to its altitude, slopes, rivers and other natural geographical conditions, and the settlement patches present the normal distribution obviously along with the variations of elevation and slope, and the differences between the space distributions are significant; and 3) the complicated rural settlement types of Qin’an County are not only closely related and correspondence obviously to the spatial distribution characteristics. The rural settlements that large and medium-sized, agglomeration-typed, commodity economy and half-commodity economy are mainly distributed in the valley and flat areas, and while the small, diffuse, traditional agriculture and services output type are mainly distributed in loess hilly areas.

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    北京农村居民点的空间分形特征及复杂性
    宋志军,关小克,朱战强
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 52-60.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.52
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (643KB)

    在多种发展功能相融合的背景下,以形状属性的空间演变为基础分析了北京城郊区域总体、平原区、近郊平原区农村居民点的空间特征。波谱分析显示,在近中郊、远郊、山区3个基本圈层的基础上,以前门为中心3种区域农村居民点斑块的空间周期交错分布。分形和Hurst指数的分析进一步显示,虽然城郊区域总体农村居民点斑块受多种因素影响,其空间结构复杂但却不具有分形特征;而地形单一、主要从事农业生产的平原区(7~76 km)、乃至深受城镇化、产业化、农区非农化影响的近郊平原区(7~49 km)的农村居民点斑块的空间结构虽然简单但却具备分形特征。后2种农村居民点斑块的空间演变与其所在区域的农业发展进程存在着差异。总体上,北京农村居民点处于承接大都市空间扩展与农业、农村、农民协同发展的关键环节,对不同区域农村居民点空间规划的策略也应不同。


    Under the background of multifunctional integration, this article analyzes the spatial characteristics of the residential areas in the overall suburb zone, plain zone, the outskirts plain zone of Beijing based on the spatial evolution of residential shape properties. The spectrum analysis shows that, the rural residential areas of the three zones are in crisscross distribution with Qianmen as the center, on the basis of three basic circles of mid-outskirts, outer suburbs, mountainous zone in Beijing. Based on this analysis, the article calculates the spatial dimension and Hurst index of three zones’ rural residential patches, and argues that the spatial structure of rural residential patches in overall suburb zone (20-122 km) is complex but not have fractal characteristics; but those in the plain zone (7-76 km) and the outskirt plain zone (7-49 km) are relatively simple but have fractal characteristics. The spatial evolutions of the latter two zones’ rural residential patches are different from their agricultural development processes. On the whole, the spatial evolution of the three zones’ rural residential areas is driven by urbanization, industrialization and non-agriculturalization of rural areas, and it is current at a critical stage of spatial expansion of the metroposis and coordinated development of agriculture, rural areas and farmers.

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    徐州城市建设用地扩展过程与格局研究
    渠爱雪,仇方道
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 61-68.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.61
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (838KB)

    基于1979年、1994年、2003年、2008年徐州城市土地利用现状图,提取城市居住、工业和商服用地信息,运用网格分析技术,研究1979~2008年徐州城市建设用地扩展的时空格局特征。研究表明:① 居住用地扩展面积和扩展强度最高,工业用地次之,商服用地最小;居住用地持续快速扩展,工业用地稳定扩展,商服用地发展相对滞后。② 工业和居住用地逆向扩展显著,逆向扩展分别由城市中心区向城市外围和城市中间地带推进。③ 工业用地在城市经济开发区片状集聚;居住用地沿交通轴带快速扩展;商服用地自1994年以来有较快发展,但以离散扩展为主。④ 经济转型和产业结构优化升级是工矿城市用地扩展的核心驱动力,交通是重要引导力,城市规划是重要调控力量。


    The expansion of urban construction land, which reflects the urbanization, the spatial process and the characteristics of city development directly, is the most remarkable characteristics of a city in space. Based on maps of urban land use status in 1979, 1994, 2003, 2008 of Xuzhou, the urban construction land information including residential land, industrial land, and commercial and public service land is extracted. Using the method of grid analysis, the spatial and temporal pattern of the urban construction land expansion is analyzed in Xuzhou during the period of transformational development in 1979-2008. The results are showed as follows: 1) The structure of the urban construction land is constantly optimized. During each period of the sustainable expansion of urban construction land, the residential land achieves the sustainable and rapid development, whose growth area and intensity are the highest, in contrast, the industrial land growth is stead, for being controlled, its growth area and intensity is lower. The commercial and public service land growth is inferior, whose growth area and intensity is the lowest. 2) The inverse expansion of industrial and residential land is distinctive. As to the structure of expansion types, the inverse expansion of industrial land is the most outstanding, whose inverse expansion is promoted from center to edge of the urban. With the rapid extension of the residential land, its inverse expansion is developed gradually from urban center to middle zone of the urban. All of these also induce that the spatial distribution of urban construction land is optimized. 3) Expansion processes of the three types of urban construction land are very quickly and their expansion forms are different. The industrial land constantly expands in form of sheet shape in city’s periphery region, then of radial shape alone traffic axis zone and of progressive sheet shape in city periphery region, which shows that the characteristic of aggregating in economic development zone of city periphery region is especially distinctive. The residential land expands rapidly along traffic axis zone, filling in the empty blocks, expanding along axis zone progressively, whose spatial expansion is relative dispersed. The commercial and public service land has been developed more rapidly since 1994, and discrete expansion has been dominating and service industry cluster district has not been formed. And 4) the transition industrial and mining cities are in the period of industrial structure quick adjustment and service function of regional central city rapid enhancement, economy transition and adjustment of industrial structure are the leading forces of the urban construction land expansion, and the transportation is a strong traction force, and city planning is an important regulation force.

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    基于RBF神经网络的土壤铬含量空间预测
    陈飞香,程家昌,胡月明,周永章,赵元,蚁佳纯
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 69-74.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.69
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (523KB)

    以广东省增城市为实验基地,采用随机采样的方法采集土壤铬含量样点,并将其分为训练数据集和检验数据集。设计4种样点布局方案,对前三组数据用RBF神经网络方法进行土壤铬含量插值,分析预测误差。研究发现,当样点较少时,RBF神经网络方法的插值结果较精确。而当样点数据为50时,误差较大,不能满足插值要求。通过插值结果的对比发现,较传统的统计学插值方法,RBF神经网络方法克服了平滑效应,特别是在数据较少的情况下,进行空间预测效果较好,是一种适用范围更广的插值方法。


    The key problem in precision agriculture research is how to use fewer samples to reflect the distribution regular pattern of farmland information and to use scientific interpolation method to interpolate and estimate farmland. Based on the soil chromium (Cr) content areas with large differences in Zengcheng City as an experimental base, 200 soil samples were collected by random sampling method. According to GB/T17137-1997 in China, the flame atomic absorption spectrometric method was used for the determination of a variety of chromium in soil. By Create subsets function in ArcGIS 9.3, four kinds of layout program were set,which were 200 sample points, 150 samples points , 100 samples points and 50 samples points . In accordance with the ratio of 4:1, the four of sample sets were divided into training dataset and test dataset, which were used to train the neural network, testing the accuracy of the interpolation results. Then RBF neural network method were used in soil Cr content interpolatin in the previous three date sets, and their error were analyzed and forecasted using the variance of the RMS (root mean square) error. In order to highlight the contrast, the previous corresponding Kriging interpolation maps and Kriging interpolation results of RMS error were gotten when Kriging interpolation method for data of the corresponding treatment was used. The results show that, in the case of fewer sample points, the interpolation result of RBF neural network was smaller than the root mean square error of traditional Kriging interpolation method, which are 0.003, 0.009 and 0.008, respectively. It was found that RBF neural network method was more accurate. However, when it was applied to the date set which were only 50 samples, whether the RBF neural network or Kriging interpolation method, numerical root mean square error of the prediction results was great, which were 0.179 and 0.128, respectively. Hence, it is hard to obtain the right result. Compared to the traditional method of statistical interpolation, RBF neural network method could overcome the smoothing effect with good self-learning features and strong non-linear computing power. Especially in the case of fewer sample points, the effect of spatial prediction was relatively good. Then, it can be concluded that RBF neural network method is applied more broadly and it is enough when it is used for the interpolation of the data sampling points.

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    基于高程约束的区域LUCC及其生态效应研究——以福州市为例
    李名勇,晏路明,王丽丽,林志垒
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 75-82.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.75
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (603KB)

    以福州市5区7县(不包括平潭县)为研究区,以1994~2006年间3期遥感影像解译分类获得的土地利用/覆被数据为基础,并构建个性化的生态系统服务价值与生态效应测算模型,对研究区高程约束下的土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)及其生态效应进行分析。研究结果表明:① 耕地、建设用地和未利用地的变化集中于第1级,园地的变化集中于第4、5级,水域和草地的变化集中于第3、2级,林地的变化集中于第1、3、4级。② 各高程等级的生态系统服务价值量均增加。各高程等级LUCC的生态效应指数与模数大致随高程等级增加而减小。


    Land use and land cover change (LUCC) has become a critical field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on the remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 30 m × 30 m in the five sub-regions and seven counties of Fuzhou City in the years of 1994, 2001 and 2006, a improved models for evaluating ecosystem services value and ecological effect of LUCC was designed by introducing the value coefficient of food yield for regional farmland per unit area and the payment coefficient of regional ecosystem services in order to analyze the characteristics of LUCC and its ecological effect under the constraint of elevations during 1994-2006, which were divided into five levels (-0.4-50 m, 50-100 m, 100-200 m, 200-500 m and 500-+∞ m) ascending respectively. The results show that: 1) The distribution of different land use and cover types was quite distinct along elevation. Forest and garden land mainly distributed on the fourth and fifth level; cultivated, built-up and unused land on the first level; grassland on the third, fourth and fifth level; and water body on the first and second level. 2) The areas of all land use and cover types showed rapid variation which appeared different characteristics under the altitude constraint in the period 1994-2006. Arable, unused and built-up area had changed sharply on the first level. The first two types decreased whereas the last one increased. The area of garden land increased significantly on the fourth and fifth level. Water body and grassland variation mainly distributed on the third and second level. The woodland change concentrated on the first, third and fourth level. 3) The ecosystem services value had increased at all elevations in 1994-2006, which appeared some inconsistency in different periods. The increasing amount of ecosystem services value from large to small along elevation levels were the fifth, fourth, first ,third and second levels respectively in the period 1994-2001 while those were the fifth, fourth, third, first and second levels in 2001-2006. The indexes of ecological effects had decreased with the rise of elevation levels in 1994-2006, Compared with 1994-2001, the indexes of ecological effects had significantly reduced in the period of 2001-2006. The modulus of ecological effects had also reduced with the go-up of elevation levels, which had increased at the first, second and third levels but decreased at the fourth, fifth levels in the latter phase compared with the previous period.

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    苏中平原南部土壤有机质空间变异特征研究
    赵明松,张甘霖,李德成,赵玉国,王德彩
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 83-89.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.83
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (675KB)

    在江苏省中部平原南部选取一个30 km×45 km方形区域为研究区,按照套合采样方法,采集178个耕作层土样,分析土壤有机质含量和机械组成,运用地统计学和GIS技术研究苏中平原区表层土壤有机质含量空间变异特征,利用相关分析和方差分析探讨区域内土壤有机质含量空间变异的影响因素。统计结果表明,研究区土壤有机质含量为28.51±7.80 g/kg,变异系数为27.31%,属中等变异强度;地统计分析表明,研究区土壤有机质含量存在强烈的空间自相关性,结构变异占主导作用,各向异性显著,在39°和219°方向上变异程度最剧烈,土壤有机质含量自东北向西南呈递减趋势。研究区土壤有机质含量空间变异主要受土壤质地、成土母质、地形等因素影响,其中土壤质地是空间变异的主要影响因素。


    In this research, a square area (32°20′17″-32°44′50″ N,119°53′37″-120°14′4″E), about 1 350 km2, was chosen as a case in the south of the middle Jiangsu plain. A total of 178 soil samples were collected according to nested scenario’s, for the analysis of SOM content and soil mechanical composition. And furthermore, spatial variability of SOM in the surface layer was analyzed using the Geostatistical and GIS method, and its dominating factors, too, by means of correlation analysis and analysis of variance. The result suggested that the SOM content varied in the range of 28.51±7.80 g/kg with a coefficient of variation being 27.31%, a moderate level. Geostatistical analysis suggests that the study area was very strong in spatial autocorrelation and the semi-variogram was best fitted by spherical model, which was significant in anisotropy and the anisotropy ratio was 1.30. The variation at 39° and 219° in direction was the most severe,and the spatial heterogeneity range at the direction was 33.26 km. The variation at 129° and 309° in direction was the slightest,and the spatial heterogeneity range at the direction was 43.08 km. The structural factors played a dominating role in spatial variability of SOM. SOM in the area was distributed in a band, of which high content was in the northeast ,in which the area of more than 30 g/kg accounting for 42% of the total area. But low content was in the southwest part. Correlation coefficients between SOM and soil mechanical composition were -0.548 for sand, 0.534 for silt and 0.259 for clay, respectively, indicating the degree of correlation between SOM and sand was the strongest, followed by silt and clay. Analysis of variance showed that parent material and soil type effected spatial variability of SOM significantly. Soil generated in the lake sediment had higher SOM content than that in the alluvial deposit. Soil type with high in clay and silt content had higher SOM content than that with sand content. Soil mechanical composition played a key role in spatial variability of the study area.

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    季风期前后西藏纳木错湖水及入湖河流水化学特征变化
    王君波,鞠建廷,朱立平
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 90-96.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.90
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (520KB)

    2011年季风期前和季风期后,分别对纳木错湖中两个站点的湖水和周边16条入湖河流进行水样采集,水化学分析结果表明:湖水中各离子含量在季风期后都比季风期前有明显的增加,其中Mg2+在两个站点分别增加46.84% 和46.95%, Ca2+分别增加67.02%和75.11%,HCO3-分别增加27.61%和25.02%。河水中大部分离子含量也都表现为季风期后的增加,而 F-、Cl- 和NO3-则表现为降低趋势。离子含量的动态变化主要受流域内风化作用影响,即风化产物是造成大部分离子含量升高的主要来源,而蒸发作用对湖水离子含量的升高也起一定作用。


    In mid-May (pre-monsoon season) and late October (post-monsoon season), water samples were taken from 2 sites in Nam Co Lake and 16 rivers around the lake for dynamic changes study of water chemical composition in different seasons. Water chemistry analysis and comparative studies have been conducted to illustrate the dynamic changes of ions concentrations between the two seasons. The results indicated that all ions showed higher concentrations in post-monsoon than that in pre-monsoon season for lake water.Among them, Mg2+ increased by 46.84% and 46.95% on average in two sites, while Ca2+ increased by 67.02% and 75.11% on average, respectively.Na+ and K+ showed relatively less increase in concentration. As for anions, HCO3- showed the largest increase of 27.61% and 25.02% in two sites, respectively. Meanwhile, most ions in river water also showed the similar trends, Mg2+ and Ca2+ increased by 40.55% and 33.20% on average in all rivers. HCO3- and SO42- increased 36.81% and 28.48%. However, F-, Cl- and NO3- showed opposite patterns, i.e., the concentrations were lower in post-monsoon season. Cl- was the most remarkable decreasing ion, averagely decreased 28.43% in all rivers. It is indicated that the ion concentrations dynamic changes of Nam Co Lake and river water were mainly influenced by weathering in the drainage area. Weathering production such as Mg2+, Ca2+ and HCO3- were the main source of increased ions, resulting from the weathering of carbonate in the catchment. On the other hand, lake evaporation has also slightly contributed to ion concentrations increase of lake water. The river Cl- decrease in post-monsoon season was mainly influenced by individual river flux, more changes in river flux between two seasons led more decrease of Cl- concentration and the ultimate controlling factors should be water supply from precipitation and glacier melting water within the catchment.

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    疏勒河上游高寒草甸蒸散对比研究
    吴锦奎,陈军武,吴灏,张世强,高明杰,秦彧
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 97-103.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.97
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (521KB)

    利用疏勒河上游草地综合观测点2011年草甸主要生长季节的观测资料,应用小型蒸渗仪法(ML)、涡动相关法(EC)、波文比能量平衡法(BREB)对高寒草甸的蒸散量进行估算和比较分析。结果发现:在观测期间涡度相关法与能量平衡法所测定结果存在能量不闭合现象,能量平衡闭合度0.84;波文比法估算的蒸散量为270.6 mm,比蒸渗仪法测定结果(238.9 mm)高13%,比涡度相关法结果(236.1 mm)高出15%。3种方法估算结果均有较好相关性。涡度相关法可能低估蒸散量,波文比能量平衡法对蒸散量有所高估。考虑到蒸散估算精度和连续性观测等方面,涡度相关法更具优势。


    The evapotranspiration (ET) of alpine meadow ecosystem in the upper reach of the Shulehe River Basin, Northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the main growing season in 2011 was measured using the micro-lysimeter(ML) method, the eddy covariance (EC) technique, and the Bowen Ratio Energy Balance (BREB) method. Results showed that the turbulent fluxes measured by EC and available fluxes measured by BREB system were imbalanced. The energy balance ratio (EBR) was 0.84. The reasons were as follows: non-synchronization of fluxes, low closure degree in nighttime and the effect of precipitation. The evapotranspiration values that estimated by BREB, ML and EC were 270.6 mm, 238.9 mm and 236.1 mm, respectively. Significant correlation existed between the evapotranspiration measured by the three methods. The determination of evapotranspiration by EC system was lower than the BREB system as many similar findings indicated. The presence of vertical diffusion and convection resulted in the underestimation of latent heat flux in EC systems was the main reason. Though the evapotranspiration results estimated by EC method and ML method were very close, the diurnal variations were not entirely consistent. According to the local natural conditions of soil and hydrology, water for evapotranspiration originated from the precipitation in the observation station. During the observation period, there was nearly no soil water storage and surface runoff. In addition, the vegetation growth was in good condition. Deduced by those facts, the value of evapotranspiration should be equal to that of precipitation, i.e. about 250 mm. From this point, the evapotranspiration values estimated by the three methods were within a reliable range. The results suggested that the evapotranspiration may be underestimated by EC while overestimated by BREB. Although EC method might underestimate evapotranspiration due to the underestimation of latent heat flux, the evapotranspiration could be obtained directly and the continuous long-term site observation could be realized either. Also, the obtained results of evapotranspiration could represent the average moisture exchange rate between the land surface and the atmosphere in a certain area. Furthermore, the EC system could also be used for the determination of CO2 flux in the prairie region. Considering the estimation precision and data continuity, the eddy covariance method had advantages over the other two methods and had more application perspective in an alpine meadow area as the upper reach of the Shulehe River Basin.

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    中国东部夏季云量与日气温统计关系
    郭元喜,龚道溢,汪文珊,毛睿,胡淼
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 104-109.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.104
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (784KB)

    利用中国东部1980~2009年130个测站夏季逐日气象资料,定量分析无雨日条件下云量与气温统计关系,从辐射角度解释成因。结果表明:日最高气温、日平均气温大多随着云量增多而显著下降,这主要是由于云量增加会导致到达地面的太阳总辐射和地表净辐射显著减少。日最低气温在北方随着云量增多而显著上升;在南方则随着总云量、低中云量增多而显著下降,但与高云量的关系不明确。出现这种现象的原因无法完全从云量影响辐射的角度进行解释。气温日较差随着云量增多而显著减小,并且北方减小的幅度大于南方。


    Based on the data of daily temperature from 130 meteorological stations of Eastern China in 1980-2009, statistical relationship between cloud cover and temperature on no rain conditions were quantitatively analyzed, and the reason was explained from the perspective of radiation. It was showed that daily maximum temperature and daily mean temperature in Eastern China decreased significantly with the increasing of cloud cover, which is mainly because solar radiation and surface net radiation decreased significantly due to increase of cloud cover. This is in consistent with the relationship between daily maximum temperature, daily mean temperature and cloud cover in the whole China, in the Northern Hemisphere and even in the Globe. Specifically, the daily maximum temperature and daily mean temperature would decrease by 0.219℃ and 0.109℃ respectively as the total cloud cover increased by each 10 percent. And also, when low and middle cloud increased, the daily maximum temperature and daily mean temperature would decreased by 0.367℃ and 0.247℃ respectively, and when high cloud increased, the daily maximum temperature and daily mean temperature would decreased by 0.087℃ and 0.006℃ respectively. This significant negative correlation between daily maximum temperature, daily mean temperature and cloud cover may be mainly caused by the reduction of surface solar radiation and surface net radiation. In the northern part of the study region, daily minimum temperature increased significantly with the increase of total cloud, low and middle cloud, or high cloud, and in the south, it decreased significantly with the increase of total cloud or low and middle cloud. But it shows no obvious relationship with the amount of high cloud. This phenomenon can hardly be explained simply from the aspect of radiation effect, because there is a significant negative correlation between cloud cover and surface effective radiation. It was found that diurnal temperature range in Eastern China was significantly decreased with the increase of cloud cover, and the rate of reduction in the north is faster than that in the south.

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    基于情景的上海台风风暴潮淹没模拟研究
    殷杰,尹占娥,于大鹏,许世远
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 110-115.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.110
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (680KB)

    台风风暴潮是上海地区面临的主要自然灾害类型,历史上对该区域造成了极为严重的灾害损失。通过上海沿海多站点水文频率分析结果发现,由于高标准海塘的防护,上海发生风暴潮漫堤淹没的几率较小。在此基础上,构建了两处溃堤点6种重现期台风风暴潮溃堤情景,采用高精度洪水数值模型(FloodMap)开展台风风暴潮淹没情景模拟。结果显示,溃堤情景下,风暴潮淹没仅发生在局部小范围区域内。因此,可以认为在目前高标准海塘的保护下,上海受台风风暴潮灾害影响有限。但是,未来需重点关注全球气候变化可能导致的极端台风风暴潮事件。


    Storm surges from tropical cyclones, as one of the most devastating natural hazards in Shanghai, have caused considerable personal injury and property damage in the history. A scenario-based study that investigated the storm induced flood potentials in Shanghai coastal area was conducted. Based on the probability analysis for several gauge stations, the findings show that due to the high standard seawall, it is less likely to occur overtopping inundation in the short term. Therefore, two vulnerable sections of seawall and six kinds of storm surge barrier bursts scenarios were built. Comparing the local land elevation with the flood levels of different return periods, flood scenarios with return periods of 20, 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000 years were designed to cover the probable situations. The shape of the flow hydrographs at the boundary gauging stations for various return periods was derived based on 9711 typhoon induced flood event where hourly flow boundary conditions were available. To reduce the computational costs of the simulation, the design flood scenarios were represented with 20 hours tidal hydrographs, which include two rising phases and two falling limbs. The topographic contours (0.5 m intervals) of Shanghai were interpolated to generate a DEM with a grid cell resolution of 50 m. These provided the flow and topographic boundary conditions for the model simulations. A well-established 2D flood numerical model (FloodMap) was used to predict the flood dynamics and inundation process. Subsequent analysis using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) was employed to illustrate the spatial and temporal distribution of flood-prone areas under different scenarios. The results indicated that, 1) maximum inundation depths were reached in all simulations at approximately the second to third hour, decreasing afterwards as the stage recedes. 2) Inundation area for each scenario increased throughout the simulation, even during the receding limb of the hydrograph. 3) The maximum inundation extents and depths increased with the increasing return periods. 4) Flooding from levee breach only caused local inundation. It can be concluded that the impact of storm flooding was not particularly high in Shanghai at present situation with the protection of high standard dike systems. However, extreme events caused by global climate change should be considered in future studies.

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    重庆市降雨侵蚀力空间格局及其变化
    汪言在,苟诗薇
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 116-122.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.116
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (771KB)

    使用经验正交函数和非参数统计检验方法,对重庆市1960~2010年全年、季节降雨侵蚀力时空格局进行分析。结论如下:① 年、季降雨侵蚀力均呈东北、东南偏大,西部偏小的空间格局。② 受大尺度气候因素影响,年、季降雨侵蚀力表现为一致性异常分布特征,2000年后年、季降雨侵蚀力增大的年份偏多。③ 受山地地形影响,全年、秋季和冬季降雨侵蚀力存在反相变化模态,重庆市东北(集中在城口、开县区域)降雨侵蚀力变化趋势与其他区域存在差异。


    Soil erosion has become a global ecological and environmental problem. Soil erosion has not only led to the destruction of land resources and reduced crop yields, but at the same time can cause water pollution and reservoir sedimentation, and increase flood risks. Therefore, the evaluation of regional soil erosion risk by analyzing the spatial and temporal variation of rainfall erosivity is of both scientific and practical significances. In the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, the quality of the ecological environment has been directly impacted by water soil erosion, it is necessary to make a study on the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in Three Gorges Reservoir Area and its surrounding regions. This study chose Chongqing as the study area, and used EOF technique and non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical test to investigate spatial-temporal changes of rainfall erosivity of the study area from 1960 to 2010. Major findings are as follows: 1) There are a spatial distribution pattern of annual rainfall erosivity that it is greater in the eastern area and less in the western area in the study area, while the largest is in Chengkou, Kaixian, Wanzhou, Yunyang and Zhongxian , indicating a higher level of potential hazards in these areas. Seasonal rainfall erosivity has a similar spatial distribution pattern, the rainfall erosivty of spring and winter in the southeast of Chongqing are the largest, followed by the northeastern and the western region, where it is the least; but the rainfall erosivity of summer and autumn in the northeast region are the largest, followed by the southeastern and western region. There is great gradient of annual, summer and autumn rainfall erosivity changes in the area of Fengdu, Zhongxian and Shizhu area, and small gradient of annual, all seasonal rainfall erosivity changes in the western area of the study area. 2) Consistent anomaly distribution is the main spatial pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity in the study area, which means the trend of changes of annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity at all stations are consistent in the study area, and the pattern was caused by large-scale climate impact factors. The annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity generally tended to increase after the year 2000. 3) Reverse changes in the spatial distribution pattern of annual, autumn and winter rainfall erositivy existe between northeastern region and other regions in the study area due to the mountainous terrain. Whenever the annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity in the northeastern of the study area increases or decreases, correspondently, the annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity in other regions of the study area would show opposite changes trend. The reverse changes pattern of autumn rainfall erosivity was typical in the 1960-1980s, and the pattern of winter rainfall erosivity was typical after the year 2004. The results above will be helpful to the research on the soil and water conservation in Chongqing.

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    湘江中下游肾综合征出血热传播风险预测和环境危险因素分析
    肖洪,林晓玲,高立冬,代翔宇,贺新光,陈碧云,张锡兴,赵暕,田怀玉
    地理科学. 2013, 33 (1): 123-128.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.01.123
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (722KB)

    利用2005~2010年湘江中下游地区HFRS病例数据和相关环境数据,结合地理信息系统、遥感技术和最大熵值法生态位模型探索湘江中下游地区HFRS传播风险和主要危险因素。研究结果表明,望城县和长沙县北部,衡东县、株洲县和湘潭县交界处以及衡东县南部等区域为潜在风险区。5和7月的NDVI值在 0.3~0.4之间的区域HFRS传播风险高,城镇和建筑用地是主要风险用地类型。生态位模型结合地理景观、气象条件及人类活动数据对湘江中下游地区HFRS传播进行分析,较其他模型获得的结果准确率更高。


    HFRS (human hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome) occurs at very high frequency in the midstream and downstream of the Xiangjiang River. It is of great significance for understanding the regulation of the transmission of HFRS in this area due to its major impact on local economy development and public health. The risk factors and potential risk of HFRS in the midstream and downstream of theXiangjiang River were explored by combining the ecologic niche modeling, geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing technique in this article. The average area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was 0.785. The 64 cases in 2010 were predicted correctly except for one case in a low risk area. These showed that the model possess good prediction performance. The modeling results indicated that the north of Wangcheng County and Changsha County, the border of Hengdong County , Zhuzhou County and Xiangtan Countiy, and the south of Hengdong County were predicted as the potential risk area. The following factors were found to be closely relative to the highest risk of HFRS transmission: mean annual temperature of 18℃, annual precipitation of about 1 500 mm, at urban and constructive land, and normalized difference vegetation index between 0.3 and 0.4 in May and July and with low elevation. The transmission of HFRS in the midstream and downstream of the Xiangjiang River was analyzed by using the ecologic niche model combining the geographical environment, climatic condition and human activity data. Our results are more accurate than those from other models and these findings in the study. Therefore, they are applicable for targeting control and prevention efforts.

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