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  • 地理科学
      2014年, 第34卷, 第5期 刊出日期:2014-05-20 上一期    下一期
    选择: 合并摘要 显示图片
    环渤海地区海域承载力测度与时空分异分析
    孙才志,于广华,王泽宇,刘锴,刘桂春
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 513-521.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.513
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (488KB)

    采用韦伯-费希纳定律确定指标评价标准,通过D-S证据合成理论将主客观权重相结合确定综合权重,应用信息扩散技术确定小样本情况下样本指标值在指标评价域上的信息分配,进而确定隶属度,在此基础上利用模糊综合评判方法对环渤海17个沿海城市的海域承载力进行评价,并运用自然断裂法进行空间表达。研究结果表明,2000~2011年,环渤海地区海域承载力虽有波动,但总体上呈上升趋势,各地海域承载力不断提高,但级别特征值都在1.8~4.0之间,整体水平不高;区域空间分异明显,空间峰值效应显著。


    The ocean is an important strategic resource in coastal countries and regions. The coastal area has the largest population, the biggest population density, and is the most developed area in China as in other coastal countries. Bohai Sea Ring Area and the Changjiang River Delta, Zhujiang River Delta are the three economic growth poles in China coastal area. With the great growth of economy and society, the contradiction between supply and demand of land resources has become increasingly prominent, marine resources have been predatory exploited, marine environment has been seriously polluted. Carrying capacity is an important study on coordinating development of resources, environment, and economy. Marine carrying capacity is generally be defined as the capacity or limit of the harmonious development of population, environment, and socio-economic that the ocean can carry in a certain period without damaging the sustainable development of marine resource and environment, and ensuring a certain living standard. Marine carrying capacity assessment is of great significance for the sustainable exploitation of marine resources, the environment protection and the coordinated development of regional economy and society in coastal areas. In this context, evaluation on carrying capacity of Bohai Sea Ring Area is of great significance to the sustainable development of the Bohai Sea economic circle. Since marine resources system has mobility, renewability and other characteristics, marine carrying capacity has openness, dynamics and complexity, it is difficult to accurately quantify the population, environment and socio-economic development or limits that marine carrying capacity can support. But by constructing indicator system, we can measure the dynamic change trend and relative marine carrying capacity then guide the development of marine economic activities. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is based on the fuzzy mathematics principle, to analyze and evaluate the situation of the membership level of things to be judged from multiple factors. Marine carrying capacity assessment is a comprehensive evaluation issue which related to multiple factors, and there are a lot of uncertain, fuzzy factors, so it can be evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. In view of the shortage of previous studies, this article applied Weber-Fischna law to determine classification standards of assessment indexes, and used D-S evidential theory to combine the subjective factor weights and objective weights, in order to make integrated weight more reliable and accurate. Information diffusion technique was used to determine the information distribution of small sample indexes value on the domain, and then determine the degree of membership. Finally used the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to assess marine carrying capacity in the Bohai Sea Ring Area, and used Natural Breaks to express the spatial distribution. The results show that although the marine carrying capacity from 2000 to 2011 of 17 coastal cities in the Bohai Sea Ring Area had fluctuations but it had an upward trend on the whole and continuously improve. But level characteristics values are all between 1.8 and 4, which means marine carrying capacity are not high. There is an obvious regional spatial difference and peak effect in marine carrying capacity.

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    中国区域全要素生产率的空间溢出关联效应研究
    刘建国,张文忠
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 522-530.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.522
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (721KB)

    运用空间计量模型对1990~2011年中国全要素生产率进行研究,发现:此间中国省域全要素生产率在大部分年份呈现了空间自相关性,表明这22 a间中国省域全要素生产率并不是完全的随机状态,受其它区域的影响。进一步运用空间计量经济模型从空间维度探究了区域全要素生产率的影响因素,研究表明:经济的集聚水平越高,全要素生产率会得到显著改善;人力资本对经济增长与效率的提升有着显著地积极作用,并表现一定程度的溢出;政府干预和产业结构对全要素生产率的影响为负,说明政府部门要减少对经济的干预;同时表明了中国的产业结构可能存在不合理的地方;信息化水平、基础设施水平对全要素生产率的影响为正,但基础设施水平在统计学意义上并不显著;民营化所占比重的提升对全要素生产率的改进是显著的,因为私有化致使企业的权力下放有助于提高技术效率;经济开放水平显著提升了中国的区域全要素生产率;中国部分省份土地投入规模过大而出现规模不经济的问题。从全要素生产率在各个地区间溢出的证据出发,各个地方政府在统筹区域经济发展的过程中不仅需要考虑本地区经济发展的实际,需要打破目前行政区经济的界限,实现跨区域的协调与合作,实现共赢,最终实现所有地区全要素生产率的提高。


    The paper, using spatial econometric model to study the provinces TFP in China from 1990 to 2011, found, that from the aspects of global and local spatial autocorrelation, China’s provincial TFP represents spatial autocorrelation in most years, and that the provincial TFP is not completely in a random state but affected by other regions in the last 22 years. Using a spatial econometric model, the article further discusses factors influencing the regional TFP from space dimension. From the research, we draw the following conclusions: the higher the economic agglomeration level is, the more significant improvement TFP will achieve. Human capital not only plays a remarkably positive role in the increase of economy and efficiency, but also exhibits a certain degree of overflow. Moreover, human capital can promote domestic technological innovation, which contributes to productivity growth. Governmental intervention and industrial structure has a negative impact on TFP, indicating the government should reduce intervention in economic activities; It also means that something unreasonable may exist in China’s industrial structure. Therefore, the government needs to continue to transfer economic growth mode, adjust the industrial structure, and develop modern services. The effects posed by the informational level and infrastructure level on TFP are positive. And increasing information level can reduce the cost of enterprise information, promote exchanges and cooperation between enterprises, and thus improve the efficiency of the economy. It should be noted that the effects of infrastructure level on TFP is not statistically significant, which may be related to the selected indicator, for only one indictor can not reflect the condition of the infrastructure completely and accurately. The rise in the proportion of privatization has a number of significant improvements over TFP. Privatization allows decentralization of power in enterprises which helps improve technical efficiency. The level of open economy has largely increased China's regional TFP. Because economic exchanges can introduce some advanced foreign management experience, which will be conductive to improving inter-regional competition and efficiency. The study also found that the investment scale of land in some provinces of China is too large, which causes diseconomy of scale. Altogether, the research finds the evidence that TFP has spillover effect in different regions. Therefore, during the development of regional economy, local governments should not only consider actual conditions of development of local economy, but also break the boundaries of administrative region economy, which will help achieve cross-regional coordination and cooperation, create a win-win situation, and ultimately improve TFP in all regions.

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    中国地级以上城市紧凑度时空演变特征研究
    黄永斌,董锁成,白永平,李俊,毛琦梁
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 531-538.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.531
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (690KB)

    紧凑城市以提高城市效率为目的,体现在空间结构、社会经济和生态环境3方面。以土地利用紧凑、经济紧凑、人口紧凑、基础设施紧凑、公共服务紧凑和生态环境协同6个维度构建紧凑度综合指标体系,测算2001、2005和2009年中国280个地级以上城市的紧凑度,探讨中国城市紧凑度的时空演变特征。研究发现:① 在全国尺度上,中国城市紧凑度整体高降低升,中低紧凑度城市逐渐增多,城市之间的差距不断减小,表现出日益明显的纺锤状特征。② 在区域尺度上,紧凑度空间异质性显著,呈东高西低的特征,其中东部地区高紧凑度城市呈团块状分布于京津冀、长江三角洲和珠江三角洲地区;东北和中西部地区低值连绵分布,高值呈斑块状。但从变化趋势来看,东部地区紧凑度逐渐下降,中西部地区则慢慢提升。③ 城市紧凑度存在明显的规模等级递增效应,超大城市高于大中城市,小城市紧凑度最低。


    As a sustainable development strategy that advocates higher urban efficiency, compact urban is of great importance to China cities when it faces a great deal of problems at the stage of fast growing, such as the sprawl of construction land, the short supply of housing residents in urban and incompatible relationship between urban and rural area. To interpret the spatio-temporal characteristics of China cities, the comprehensive evaluation index system is built up based on six dimensions, which are land-use compactness, economic compactness, population compactness, infrastructure compactness, public service compactness and eco-environment coordination. Entropy method was used to calculate the weights of each evaluation index, which the weights of eco-environment coordination and economic compactness are higher than other index. And then we calculate the urban compactness of 280 cities at the prefecture level and above in 2001, 2005 and 2009 based on those weights. The result show that urban compactness elevates slightly overall, and the disparities between cities decreases gradually, which the high scores of urban compactness grow small and the low score of that promote slightly. As to the spatial pattern of urban compactness, the eastern part ranks highest, and follows by the central part and western part of China, which implies the score of urban compactness is relative higher in east and relative lower in west, and that spatial pattern is similar to the spatial pattern of regional economic development. While, referring to the evolvement of urban compactness, the score of the east decreases gradually, and that of central and western part of China elevates step by step. And it is obvious to notice the spatial heterogeneity of urban compactness, the high and low compact cities cluster in different regions. The low value mainly agglomerates in northeastern, central and western China, while the high value mainly locates in eastern China where are Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, Changjiang River Delta and Zhujiang River Delta to be more exact. Moreover, that proportion of hierarchies grows even larger with the evolvement, which shows an even more eminent spindle-sized pattern. As to the scale-size characteristics of urban compactness, the megacities have the highest value of compactness that is higher than super cities, large cities and middle-sized cities, and the value of small cities ranks last. It seems to be a strong correlation between urban compactness and urban size, then correlation analysis was used to investigate the result which shows the correlation coefficient between urban compactness and municipal population is below 0.5, which implies a weak correlation.

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    流动人口初次流动的空间类型选择及其影响因素——基于福建省的调查研究
    林李月,朱宇
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 539-546.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.539
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (530KB)

    利用福建省近3 000名流动人口的流动史数据,采用多项分类Logistic回归分析方法,从社会性别差异视角对其初次流动的空间分布格局、空间类型选择及其影响因素进行了实证分析。研究发现,流动人口的初次流动存在着明显的空间选择集聚特征,其个体的空间类型选择不仅体现了人力资本的遴选效应和家庭决策的结果,同时社会网络、制度背景和社区环境也对其空间选择具有重要影响。此外,相对于男性流动人口,女性流动人口空间分布格局的集聚特征更为明显,且其空间类型选择更加受到家庭的羁绊和制度的约束。


    Based on the individual-level event-history data from a random sampling questionnaire survey of 2 977 migrants in Fujian Provinces in 2009, this article examines patterns of the floating population′s spatial distribution, their choices of the spatial types of their destinations, and factors determining such choices, in their first-time migration, from a gender perspective, and using the multinomial logistic regression model. The results show that patterns of the floating population′s spatial distribution and their choices of the spatial types of their destinations in their first-time migration exhibit strong tendency of spatial clustering, and are rather close to the average spatial patterns and choices of member of the floating population at different migration stages, which have been revealed by existing studies based on aggregate migration data. In fact, such patterns and choices establish the basis for the spatial distribution and destination choices of the floating population at their later migration stages. However, the results also demonstrate that not all members of the floating population will experience a one-step migration process, and that some of them will move to other destinations, or return to the places of origin, leading to the fact that the floating population′s spatial distribution and choices of the spatial types of their destinations at later migration stages are often at variance with those in their first-time migration. The results further suggest that the floating population′s choices of the spatial types of their destinations in their first-time migration are not only the combined effects of their human capital selection mechanism and their family decisions, but also affected by other factors, including the floating population′s social networks, their community environment, and the general institutional context. It is particularly noteworthy that the characteristics of sending areas and families, and the status of the floating population′s families in the communities, which are often neglected in the existing migration research, stand out in the floating population′s choices of the spatial types of their destinations in their first-time migration. Compared to male members of the floating population, there is a stronger tendency for spatial clustering of female members of the floating population in their first-time migration, who are also more likely to reach the current destinations by a one-step process. While equally affected by human capital selection mechanism, social networks, and community environment, as with their male counterparts, the choices of the spatial types of destinations for female members of the floating population are more constrained by family- and institutional-related factors.

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    大庆市城市脆弱性综合评价与动态演变研究
    王岩,方创琳
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 547-555.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.547
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (480KB)

    城市脆弱性是指城市在发展过程中抵抗资源、生态环境、经济、社会发展等内外部自然要素和人为要素干扰的能力。当这种抗干扰能力低于某一临界阈值时,城市即进入脆弱状态。城市脆弱性一般包括资源脆弱性、生态环境脆弱性、经济脆弱性和社会脆弱性四大类型,是上述四种脆弱性的综合体现。大庆市是一座典型的资源型城市,具有明显的脆弱性特征。采用系统分析方法和综合指数评价法,分别对城市各子系统脆弱性和城市综合脆弱性动态演变特征进行研究,分析表明:① 1990~2012年,大庆市资源脆弱性呈现增加趋势,生态环境脆弱性、经济脆弱性、社会脆弱性均呈现降低趋势;② 1990~2012年大庆市城市综合脆弱性经历了“快速下降-波动下降-加速下降”3个变化阶段,目前大庆市处于由中脆弱度向较低脆弱度的过度阶段;③ 伴随石油开采和城市发展,大庆市已经从经济主导型脆弱性转变为资源主导型脆弱性,大庆市已处于城市发展的重要历史时期,亟需加快经济转型和城市转型步伐,转则兴,不转则衰。未来,应持续关注资源型城市,加强资源型城市脆弱性的研究,进一步总结城市脆弱性的发生机理与变化规律,为城市转型和实现可持续发展提供科学依据。


    Urban vulnerability refers to the ability of resisting internal and external interference from natural and human factors including resource, ecological environment, economy, social development etc. in the city evolution process. When the resistance to the adverse disturbances is lower than a certain threshold value, city will enter vulnerable state. Urban vulnerability generally includes resource vulnerability, eco-environment vulnerability, economic vulnerability and social vulnerability, and it is the comprehensive embodiment of the four kinds of vulnerability. Daqing is a typical resource-based city with obvious vulnerability characters. The articleused the method of system analysis and composite-index assessment to study the dynamic evolution characteristics of each subsystem’s vulnerability and the urban comprehensive vulnerability. The result showed that: 1) in 1990-2012, the resource vulnerability of Daqing presented an increasing tendency, while the vulnerability of other three subsystems contain eco-environment, economic vulnerability, social vulnerability showed a declining trend. This mainly because Daqing is a resource-based city whose leading industry is oil development and machining; 2) in 1990-2012, the urban comprehensive vulnerability of Daqing experienced three different stage, in sequence of ‘rapid decrease-wavelike decrease-accelerated decrease’. At present, Daqing is in the transition station from mid-vulnerability to lower-vulnerability; 3) The urban vulnerability of Daqing has already changed from economy-leading vulnerability to resource-dominated vulnerability and Daqing is in the important stage of city development. In future, we should pay more attention to the vulnerability of resource-based cities, summarize the mechanism and law of urban vulnerability, and provide scientific basis for the transition and sustainable development of the city.

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    基于Logistic回归的沿海经济区建设用地演变驱动因素研究——以大连市新市区为例
    梁辰,王诺
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 556-562.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.556
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (505KB)

    沿海经济区空间演变与其产业经济的可持续发展紧密相关,探索用地演变的驱动机制,对区域未来发展具有重要意义。以临港产业高度集聚发展的典型沿海经济区——大连市新市区为例,基于TM遥感影像和DEM空间数据,通过随机选取2 000个采样点,构建了描述用地空间演变过程的Logistic回归模型,分析了沿海经济区土地利用变化过程的空间变量,重点研究驱动因素构成,各因素参与程度、影响效果和作用,各时段因素间的关联性及传导性等内容。研究发现,在1990~2010年的20 a间,大连市新市区建设用地面积增加了近30倍,其空间驱动变量除了包含与城市CBD、邻近区县、乡镇中心的距离外,还与到主要港区、沿海岸线、邻近临港工业区距离等因素密切相关,这一系列城镇空间分布与港口相关变量构成了用地空间演变的驱动因素体系,共同塑造了沿海经济区的空间格局。文章所建空间模型通过Logistic回归检验,能够较好地揭示沿海经济区空间演变的主要驱动因素及其作用机理,为相关研究提供了新的思路和方法。


    The spatial land use changes of coastal economic zone are closely associated with the future sustainable development of the regional industries. The research chose Dalian new urban as study area due to its typical characters of coastal economic zone with highly accumulated port industries. Using TM remote sensing images and DEM spatial data over a two-decade period, the logistic regression models on the construction land changes were built with 2 000 random samples. The models were aimed to analyze the spatial variables embodied in the evolution process with focus on the composition of driving factors and involvement levels, effects and impacts of each remarkable factor. In order to reflect the spatial change mechanism comprehensively, not only natural but also social-economic, especially industrial factors were all imported into the independent variable index in the models. By extracting urban spatial changes, it was found that the construction land in Dalian new urban has expanded by nearly 30 times in 20 years. To explain such huge land changes, the regression results show that the significant variables in coastal economic zone not only contain the distance to CBD, to nearest district, villages and towns, as the finding in similar urban sprawl regressions, but also include the distance to nearest main ports, coastal lines and port industry zones with strong specific coastal attributes. The variables both on urban spatial distribution and on coastal related conditions are thus confirmed as driving factors of land use spatial changes in this coastal economic zone. The driving factors are all playing critical roles in shaping urban patterns jointly. Through the comparison between the regression models in the period of 1990-2000 and 2000-2010, it can as well known the categories and impacts of the proposed explanatory variables in different stages varied. In the first period, as a newly developing stage, the urban spatial growth was mainly promoted by inward space filling with the distance to district, villages and towns and the ports as the most important significant factors, representing obvious spatial attraction. While in the second period, the spatial pattern was formed by outward sprawl with an addition of the coastal elements (distance to ports, port industry zones and coastal lines, etc.) as determining factors. Along with the rapid development of port industries, the spatial effects of port and port industries were increasing. These findings suggest a future trend of construction land expansion in the area adjacent to port, port industry accumulation zones in the circumstances of coastal economic flourishing, and therefore in need of paying more attention on how coastal related natural, social and industrial factors change during urban planning. The regression models in the study passed through the Logistic tests and the received verification findings confirmed the effectiveness of the designed research methods. It is considered the driving factor analysis based on Logistic regression can deepen the understanding in land use changes of coastal economic zone and provide decision-making support for coastal urban planning and spatial forecasting as well. The methodology can be applied to researches of a similar nature.

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    基于发生学视角的淮南城市空间生长过程、特征及影响因素研究
    杨显明,焦华富,许吉黎
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 563-570.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.563
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (775KB)

    以淮南市为案例,结合历次城市规划用地现状资料和产业发展数据,利用GIS技术平台,对不同考察时点淮南城市空间形态进行叠加对比研究、测算不同时期城市空间扩展形态紧凑度、扩展速度和扩展强度指数,从时间维度和空间维度2个方面考察了淮南城市空间形态的演变过程及特征。结果表明:作为无依托型煤炭城市,淮南城市空间发展经历了散点发展、节点集聚扩展、飞地拓展、轴向延伸、内向填充、整合优化、区位再造7个阶段,表现出显著的空间取向和圈层结构特征;在空间扩展过程中,深受资源分布的控制和煤炭产业的影响,城市空间围绕煤炭企业为中心生长扩展,导致城市空间从紧凑形态向分散发展,经多次嵌套填充、优化调整,再次向紧凑形态演化。分析认为,淮南在不同演化阶段,影响城市空间生长的主导因素有所差异:资源状况和通勤条件主导发生期城市空间形态、成长期受国家能源战略和交通运输的引导、中兴期则以产业结构演替为主导因素、转型期深受空间经济相互作用引导和规划调控的影响。


    Taking the Huainan City as a case, the article, combined all previous status information of the urban planning land and industrial development data, using the GIS technology platform, has researched the urban spatial form of Huainan City with the method of comparative study of superposition in different inspection points, measures the compact degree index, expansion speed and expansion intensity index of the urban spatial expansion form in different periods, and inspects the evolution process and features of the urban spatial form in Huainan City from the aspects of time and space. The result indicates that the urban spatial extension of Huainan City, as a coal city, demonstrates significant spatial orientation and structure characteristics of layers, with 7 stages including scatter development, node cluster expansion, enclaves expanding, axial extension, interior filling, integration and optimization, and location reengineering. In the process of spatial expansion, under the control of the coal resource, the drive of the coal industry and the expansion of the coal enterprise, the development of urban space experiences a changing process from compact to decentralized form and then back again under the influence of gradual filling and optimization adjustment. In different periods, West, North, East, South of the city became the main directions of urban spatial expansion in turn. From the macro level, the urban spatial structure, which has free space, presents binary spatial structure—"urban-industrial areas". Instead, it is the dissimilated band structure. Along the main traffic arteries, there are residential areas, commercial areas, office area on both sides and the factory sector outward side. From the micro level, residential areas are around the coal enterprise center layout. The urban spatial structure presents ternary structure, including management area, office-residential area and coal mining area. In addition, the expanded speed and strength of urban spatial is greater different in different historical periods. Before the mid 1980s, it expanded slowly. From the mid 1980s to the mid 1990s, it kept medium speed. Since the mid 1990s, it expanded rapidly. And the urban spatial expansion of three main directions (North, West, and South) is faster than the East. The analysis concludes that, the dominant factors of urban spatial expansion are different at different stages of evolution of Huainan City. At the formative period, resource and the occurrence of the city commuting are the dominant factors led the urban spatial form change. At the growing period, the long-term national energy strategies and transportation drives the growth of the city. At the mature period, the industrial structure succession is the dominant factor. At the transition period, it is led by the interaction of the space economy and planning regulation.

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    近10年来海南航空网络空间格局及演化研究
    焦敬娟,王姣娥
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 571-579.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.571
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (638KB)

    以海航航空为研究对象,从企业尺度探讨其近10 a来的重组、收购和扩张对其航空网络空间结构及航空枢纽变迁的影响。研究发现:海南航空网络整体明显向北扩张,平均航距呈下降趋势;航班集中在少数通航城市和航线,但集聚趋势有所下降;并在中国全国和部分区域已基本形成了“轴-辐”模式为主、“点-点”模式为辅的空间结构,航空枢纽由海口、北京和西安转变为西安、北京和海口;首位联系度下降明显,进一步表明网络由集聚向均衡化发展。


    To face the aviation market liberalization all over the world, Chinese government and airlines have prompted a series of strategies from the 1990s. Hainan Airline as one of the four biggest airlines in China, has reconstructed some small airlines from 1993, which largely reflects the interactions of national strategies and market patterns. Till to 2004, Hainan Airline has recombined Chang'an Airline, Xinhua Airline, Shaanxi Airline, and all these four airlines adopted “HU” as their flight signal and were called “four recombined airlines of Hainan”, which stands for the completing of the first stage of airlines recombined. In 2004-2012, Hainan Airline has restructured Tianjin Airline, Western Airline, Changjiang River Express Airlines and so on. Until 2012, Hainan Airline has owned 111 domestic nodes and 415 domestic airlines, compared to these in 2004, the nodes increased 33 and the airlines increased 97. The restructure of airlines leads to the expansion of Hainan airlines, while how these influence the structure of Hainan airline network is not clear. Therefore, this article will analyze the impacts of its reconstruction, acquisition and expansion on the aviation network structure and aviation hub of Hainan Airline for nearly 10 years. To have a clear understanding of the reconstruction pattern, the article studies the changes of the distribution of aircraft network and the flights they own. Through this study, we get several conclusions: Hainan Airline expends its network to north significantly, and the average flight distance has a downward trend; flights are concentrated in a few navigable cities and routes, but the gathering trend decline; the network presents two special patterns, which are “hub-spoke” and “point to point” patterns, while the aviation hubs changes from Beijing, Xi'an, Haikou to Beijing, Xi'an; the first contact of the network decreased significantly, which reflects the network tends to be balance.

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    广州市医疗设施可达性模型中端点吸引的影响因素检验
    齐兰兰,周素红,闫小培
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 580-586.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.580
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (739KB)

    引入出租车GPS数据对医疗设施端点特征指标、服务端特征指标、环境要素指标等进行检验,衡量这些指标对医疗设施端点吸引量和主要服务范围的影响作用。结果显示医疗服务利用符合距离衰减规律,1.5 km内人数最多,超过1.5 km,随距离增加出行人数逐渐减少;医疗设施吸引量受医院规模、所在地区人口数量的正向影响,主要服务范围受到所在地区人口数量的负向影响,其他指标影响不显著。


    Health care is an important part of the public service. Scholars from human geography, medicine, public health, sociology and other fields pay wide attention to its accessibility studies. A variety of methods have been emplyed to measure health care accessibility, including the distance or time to the nearest medical facility, the ratio of supply to demand in a certain radius, the gravity model, the kernel density method, and two-step floating catchment method to measure the relationship between supply and demand in a region. Among the different methods mentioned above, the attractiveness of the facilities is one of its core elements, which is mainly related to the amount and scope of services. The impact factors are mainly related to hospital size, rank, service population, traffic accessibility and so on. The reasonableness of these assumptions mentioned above directly affects the reliability of the results, and it is important to test these hypotheses. Current testing methods and data acquisition are limited, which make such kind of researches exile. GPS data of floating car provide a solution to the problem. This article test the indicators commonly used in medical facilities’ accessibility by introducing GPS floating car data. The indicators include endpoint characteristics such as hospital rank, size, whether or not covered by medicare, characteristics of service endpoint such as population in service areas, and environmental factors such as the number of other medical facilities, population and road accessibility, etc. Results showed that hospital size and population within 1.5 km have positive effects on the amount of attraction of the hospital. Other indicators commonly used in the accessibility models, such as hospital rank, whether or not covered by medicare, population and high-need population in the main service radius, road accessibility and population in the surrounding area, and the number of competitors are not significant in this article. Population within 1.5km has negative effects on the main service radius. Other indicators have no significant effect in the test of this paper. Data in this paper is mainly from the GPS data of floating car. Other transportations like walking and public transit and so on are not studied in this paper. The test of the indicator is mainly the reflection of the floating car mode. Despite the limitations, the method and main conclusion of this paper which depend on mass data of GPS have positive significance on deepening the research on accessibility.

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    亚运会开幕式对广州居民文化认同的影响研究——基于仪式理论的分析
    罗秋菊,林潼
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 587-593.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.587
    摘要   PDF (397KB)

    广州亚运会开幕式既是体育事件的仪式部分,也是一个独立的文化事件。基于事件与仪式理论视角,阐述亚运会开幕式的文化呈现及文化象征符号意义,透过举办地本地居民对具有本地文化表征事件的态度,分析亚运会开幕式事件与举办地文化的关系,探讨在事件背景下文化认同的呈现及可能的变化趋势。透过对作为阈限的事件、事件的文化表演、事件的文化时代连结、事件对地方意识的激发等关系的阐释,呈现亚运会开幕式的文化认同。研究发现:① 广州亚运会开幕式事件唤起的情绪是文化本体认同的体现,事件亦提供认识文化体系中文化符号及其意义的一个途径,同时广州亚运会开幕式事件推进了文化的整合;② 广州亚运会开幕式事件影响文化认同的过程需要相关群体的积极参与,只有将暂时的情绪转化成人们对于文化的主动性思考、认知与认同,事件的刺激作用才能得以延续并最终作用于文化认同。此外,事件对文化认同的影响需要在时间延伸上进行讨论和完善,事件后文化的发展状态也需要被关注。


    While the issue of cultural identity is highlighted under the circumstance of globalization and modernization, there is still lacking particular research on sports events'impacts on cultural identity. Thus more attention should be paid to the socio-cultural impacts in order to utilize more fully of the positive impacts of sports events. 2010 Asia Games opening ceremony in Guangzhou is not only part of the sports event, but also an independent cultural event. The article, through participant observation and interview, described the Lingnan Culture in Guangzhou Asian Games opening ceremony and interpreted the cultural symbols in it. The relationship between the ceremony and the culture of the host city was discussed by analyzing the attitude of local residents to the event with local cultural characteristics. Possible changing tendency of cultural identity in the context of the opening ceremony was also discussed. By expounding event as a liminal phase, event as cultural performance, event as a connection of traditional and modernity, event as a booster of local awareness, how the cultural identity would be was revealed in the context of events that represented by the Asian Games opening ceremony in this article. It indicates that: 1) the relationship between events and cultural identity is reflected on the different levels of cultural identity. Ontological identity is showed in the emotions that aroused by events. Events also offer a way to learn about the cultural symbols and different cultures integrate with the stimulation of events; 2) the participation of local people plays an important role in the proceeding of culture identity affected by the event. The stimulations generated by the event can be lasting and finally affects cultural identity only when the people turn the provisory emotion into a more positively thought and cognition. Meanwhile, we also need to identify how events influent cultural identity on a long time scale and attention also should be paid to the post-event development of the culture.

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    基于误差反馈控制的变系数城市扩张模型构建及应用
    冯徽徽,刘慧平
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 594-600.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.594
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1009KB)

    通过模拟结果与实际情况的误差分析,将研究区划分为4种像元类型,包括漏算误差像元(Omission Error, OE)、超算误差像元(Commission Error, CE)、正确模拟的城市像元(Urban Correct, UC)及正确模拟的非城市像元(Non-urban Correct, NUC)。利用线性规划方法,将误差反馈到城市扩张模型中,动态修正模型系数,构建基于误差反馈控制的变系数城市扩张空间布局模型反映城市扩张的内在特征,最后以北京市为例,模拟了其1997~2009年的城市扩张过程,通过与传统Logistic-CA模型的模拟结果对比,验证变系数模型的有效性与实用性。研究结果表明:传统Logistic-CA模型在2001年、2005年和2009年的模拟精度分别为73.842%、64.704 %和63.953%,而基于误差反馈控制的变系数城市扩张模型的模拟精度分别为75.624%、66.537%和69.142%,较Logistic-CA回归模型提高了1.782、1.833和5.189个百分点,取得了更好的模拟效果。


    Urban growth model was the simplification of the urban area, which was expected to present and simulate the dynamic processes of urbanization through the mathematical methods, and provide a very useful analysis tool to understand and capture the characteristics of urban growth. The Logistic-CA model was widely used in the existing researches of the urban growth simulation, while it was difficulty to reflect the nonlinear and dynamic characteristics of the urban growth for its static coefficients. To deal with this deficiency, a variable-coefficient urban growth model was developed through the error feedback control in this artcle. Firstly, four pixel types were generated according to the comparison between the simulation result and real situation, which includes the Omission Error (OE) pixels, Commission Error (CE) pixels, Urban Correct (UC) pixels and Non-urban Correct (NUC) pixels, then the simulation error was mapped into the urban growth model to modify the coefficients through the linear programming method. Finally, the variable-coefficient urban growth model was built based on the error feedback control. To validate the effect of the variable-coefficient model, both the Logistic-CA and variable-coefficient model were used to simulate the urban growth process of Beijing City from the year of 1997 to 2009. The results showed that the accuracies of Logistic-CA model in 2001, 2005 and 2009 were 73.842%, 64.704% and 63.953%, respectively, while these values of the variable-coefficient urban growth model were 75.624%, 66.537% and 69.142%, which were 1.782%, 1.833% and 5.189% greater than the former. It can be demonstrated that the variable-coefficient model could present the real situation of urban growth and obtain a better simulate results. The results of this article had a high theoretical and practical significance, for it could provide a new method and view to guide the research of urban growth simulation, but also provide an ancillary evidence for the urban planning and decision.

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    基于空间相互作用模型的县域城镇体系结构定量化研究——以科尔沁左翼中旗为例
    范强,张何欣,李永化,王竞雪
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 601-607.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.601
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (487KB)

    以空间相互作用模型为基础,GIS为主要平台,通过改进断裂点模型,实现了对科左中旗城镇体系结构的分级以及经济区的划分。首先,提出了以城镇中心性强度代替城镇人口规模并结合加权Voronoi图的模型改进方法。然后,通过引入加权平均距离摩擦指数、成本加权距离等概念,建立并完善了中心性强度计算的指标体系。利用所得的中心性强度值并结合当地实际,将研究区的城镇体系结构划分为中心镇、二级中心镇以及一般镇3个级别。最后,通过比较常规Voronoi图与改进Voronoi图两种空间划分方案,最终确定以各城镇中心性强度的平方根为权重的改进Voronoi图的空间划分方案作为研究区城镇辐射范围的划分依据,再通过逐步合并与搜索,得到科左中旗的经济区划分方案,即以中心镇为主的东、中、西三大经济区。


    This article realizes the classification of urban system structure and the division of economic zone in Horqin by improving the breaking point model based on spatial interaction model and GIS platform. First of all, it introduces a model improving method which replaces the urban population with the centrality strength and combines the weighted Voronoi Diagram. Then it builds and completes the centrality strength computing index system by introducing the concepts of weighted average distance friction index of towns and cost weighted distance, etc. The urban system structure has been classified into central towns, secondary central towns and common towns. Finally, by comparing two space division solutions of regular Voronoi diagram and weighted Voronoi Diagram, it can be found that the latter has been determined to be the final solution of urban influenced regions. By merging and searching the sub-regions step by step, this article divides the study area into three economic zones—east economic zone, middle economic zone and west economic zone. The results reflect the current situation and the tendency of development of urban system and provide theoretical basis for the sustainable development of urban system in Horqin Left Middle Banner.

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    国内外农民工务工区位研究进展
    高更和,樊新生,罗庆,李小建
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 608-613.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.608
    摘要   PDF (367KB)

    通过对国内外相关文献的分析,发现其直接研究成果较少,相应的理论构建较为薄弱,间接的相关研究成果较多,但大多来自其他学科。国内直接相关研究主要集中于务工地选择机制、务工距离分布规律、务工地城镇类型选择、务工地选择影响因素等领域。国外的间接相关研究主要集中于移民区位、移民空间结构等永久性迁移领域,而对非永久性迁移的研究较少。今后应加强对务工区位的研究,通过对不同区域典型案例的研究进行理论概括,在方法上应加强模型分析和量化分析,这需要有关部门加强对农民工的统计工作。


    Migration flow caused by migrant workers′ employment outside their hometown has an increasingly important impact on the overall socio-economic development. Analyzing the law of migrant workers′migrant location choice from a geographic perspective is the base of understanding the principles of this migration flow. By the analysis on relevant literature home and abroad, we find that there are less direct researches on employment location of migrant workers and the theoretical construct is weak. There is more indirectly related literature, but most of them come from sociology, economics and management science, etc. At present, the researches in China focus on the choice mechanism of employment location, the law of work distance distribution, the selection of location type on city and town and the influencing factors of employment place choice, etc. On the employment location selection mechanism, the migrant workers′ cluster, the infection model, the four-process decision-making mechanism of spatial behavior and the social capital theory offer a reasonable explanation. On the distribution of work distance, the “U” type distribution effect, the proximity effect, the job opportunity effect and the income maximization effect provide a better explanation. The principle of selecting high-grade urban areas and income effect sheds light on the selection of employment location type. The rural community factors, personal factors, family factors, distance factors, destination factors, etc., constitute the major factors influencing the employment location selection. The foreign indirect researches are concentrate on the field of permanent migration, such as immigration location, immigrant spatial structure, etc. However, researches on choice location of non-permanent migration are rather few. The theory of permanent migration is subject to certain restrictions when it is used to temporary migration due to the fact that they differ in migration time, migration purposes, migration motivation, etc. The important position of China′s migrant workers makes the issue a key research field of scholars today and for a long time. In future, geography researchers should strengthen the research in the field of migrant workers′ employment location, summarizing its general laws on the basis of case studies in different regions. As for research methods, the model analysis and quantitative analysis should be strengthened to reveal the characteristics and laws of the employment location of migrant workers more precisely. This also requires relevant government departments strengthening the statistical work on migrant workers.

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    河流对0.8 Ma B.P.环境突变事件的地貌响应研究
    胡春生,周迎秋
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 614-620.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.614
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (459KB)

    以兰州盆地0.8 Ma B.P.阶地为例证,运用古地磁测年方法,通过收集相关文献,分析讨论了0.8 Ma B.P.阶地与0.8 Ma B.P.环境突变事件的联系。结果表明:① 0.8 Ma B.P.环境突变事件主要表现在气候转型、构造运动等方面,具有群发性和全球性特点;② 兰州盆地以及其他区域0.8 Ma B.P.阶地存在的证据,表明河流在0.8 Ma B.P. 前后普遍发生过一次下切事件;③ 0.8 Ma B.P.阶地是河流对0.8 Ma B.P.环境突变事件的地貌响应,构造运动为提供了下切驱动力,而气候变化则控制了下切时间。


    Based on a large number of research data on the environmental change events at 0.8 Ma B.P. and the 0.8 Ma B.P. terraces, this paper, which takes the Lanzhou Basin as an example, discusses the internal relationship between the 0.8 Ma B.P. terraces and the events of environmental change at 0.8 Ma B.P.. In the Lanzhou Basin, there are two river terraces, namely the Zaoshugou terrace and the Wuyishan terrace, which are selected respectively as the study terraces. For the Zaoshugou terrace, the altitude of gravel stratum is 80 m higher than the river level. The top of the gravel stratum is covered by at least 64 m eolian loess, and the paleosol S8 is at the bottom of the eolian loess. While for the Wuyishan terrace, the altitude of gravel stratum is 140 m higher than the river level. The top of the gravel stratum is overlain by about 100 m eolian loess, and the paleosol S8 is also at the bottom of the eolian loess. Through the paleomagnetic dating and loess-paleosol sequence matching, it is discovered that these two terraces have the same age, and both were developed at about 0.865 Ma B.P.. According to the analysis of sedimentary characteristics and the correlative literature of tectonic movement, these two terraces show significant attribute of the tectonic movement genesis. At the same time, they also have similar lithology that there is a paleosol developed on the top of fluvial silt. It shows that the Yellow River downcut during the transition from glacial to interglacial. Therefore, the 0.8 Ma B.P. terraces in the Lanzhou Basin were formed under the combination of tectonic movement and climate change. The main results show that: 1) With group-occurring and global characteristics, the environment change events at 0.8 Ma B.P. are mainly manifested in the climate transition, tectonic movement, loess expansion, biological evolution, astronomy meteorite and so on; 2) the Zaoshugou terrace and the Wuyishan terrace were formed at about 0.865 Ma B.P., which were developed under the combination of tectonic movement and climate change; 3) The universal existence of the 0.8 Ma B.P.P terraces in the Lanzhou Basin and other regions verifies that there was a large-scale river down cutting event which resulted in the formation of 0.8 Ma B.P. terraces; 4) The environment change events at 0.8 Ma B.P. are the direct cause of development of the 0.8 Ma B.P. terraces. The intensive tectonic movement provides the driving force for the development of river terraces, and the dramatic climate transition controls the time of river incision. Therefore, the 0.8 Ma B.P. terraces are the geomorphic response to the 0.8 Ma B.P. events of environment change.

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    黄浦江流域洪灾动态风险演化趋势研究
    苏飞,殷杰,尹占娥,于大鹏,许世远
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 621-626.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.621
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (969KB)

    改革开放以来,黄浦江流域经历了快速的城市化过程,人类活动极大改变了流域的自然环境和洪灾风险特征。利用洪水数值模型开展1979、1990、2000和2009年黄浦江流域5、50和500年一遇洪水情景模拟。在此基础上,参考相关标准,构建基于土地利用的脆弱性分级方法和风险判别矩阵,进而分析了黄浦江流域洪灾动态风险的演化特征。研究结果显示:转型期黄浦江流域洪灾动态风险呈现先缓慢增加后显著降低的演化趋势,在空间上洪灾风险表现为从几乎全流域分布到中上游地区集中分布的趋势,防汛墙的扩建加固以及快速城镇化进程是导致洪灾风险演化的主要因素。


    Huangpu River Basin has experienced rapid urbanization since “reform and opening up”. Increasing human activities greatly changed the natural environment and flood risk characteristics in this area. This article presented a scenario-based study that investigated the flood dynamic risk in Huangpu River floodplain during the transitional period (1979-2009). A 1D/2D coupled flood inundation model (Flood Map) was firstly used to simulate the designed flood scenarios with 5 a, 50 a and 500 a return periods in 1979, 1990, 2000 and 2009. The flow hydrographs at the boundary gauging stations (i.e. upstream Mishidu and downstream Wusong) were derived using a simplified algebraic subtraction of the water levels with different return period which have been calculated in our previous studies and the maximum water level during the 9711 flood event where hourly stage hydrograph was available. The flood processes are only represented with 24 h stage hydrographs, including two rising and falling phases. 175 rectangular cross-sections were used as the 1D river channel model. The DEMs of 1979, 1990, 2000 and 2009 were generated based upon the 2005 DEM and land subsidence data of 1980-2009 for the study area. Roughness parameters of river channel and floodplain were represented by varying manning's. These provided the boundary conditions and the calibrated parameters for the model simulations. Furthermore, land use maps of the study area in various time points were used for vulnerability analysis and then they were categorized into four classes. On the basis of some relevant national standards and expert judgments, a flood risk matrix, which comprehensively considerate the relationship between flood inundation and vulnerability, was constructed for the analysis of flood dynamic risk variation in Huangpu River Basin during the transitional period. The results shown that over the past 30 years, the flood dynamic risk of Huangpu River Basin slightly increased between 1979 and 1990 due to rapid urbanization and land subsidence in floodplain but significantly reduced afterwards particularly in city center because the floodwall system along Huangpu River has been largely extended and reinforced. As expected, the flood risk obviously increased with the increasing return periods. Spatially, the flood risk appeared in most of riparian regions in 1979 and then it was gradually restricted to mid- and upstream. Finally, uncertainties and limitations were analyzed and some suggestions were presented for future researches.

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    青海湖沙地麦草方格沙障的蚀积效应与规格选取
    张登山,吴汪洋,田丽慧,魏殿生
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 627-634.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.627
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    根据青海湖克土沙地6种不同规格麦草方格沙障的全年插钎蚀积监测和风季后凹曲面形态测量,各规格凹曲面的形成主要受控于冬春季节西风和西北风的控制。东西向1 m间距的小规格堆积沙埋严重,蚀积强度大于15βg/cm2,且全年处于不断堆积状态;2βm间距的大规格中心偏南部位侵蚀严重,蚀积强度小于10βg/ cm2;1.5 m间距的规格蚀积强度适中,容易形成稳定凹曲面,且蚀积年变化较小。综合分析,1.5 m×1.5 m 规格的综合防护指数最大为0.64,为高寒沙区最为适宜的规格,其余规格可视地形和风况环境适当采用。


    Straw-checkerboard barrier is a mainly mechanical method of controlling desert in the Qinghai Lake,according to the yearly monitoring of erosion and deposition, and sharp measure of concaves of six kinds of dimensions,it can be concluded that the dimension of 1.5 m×1.5 m is the most locally feasible one with the best comprehensive benefits both in ecological effects and economical cost. Basically, this norm is easy to form a balanced concave, and will change little in the erosive and cumulate depth afterwards. Whereas small dimensions with one meter space in east-west direction will cause serious sand-bury hazard which their accumulated intensity will surpass 15 grams per one square centimeter, and their accumulations last for the whole year and gradually become placid. Meanwhile, the big dimensions with 2 m space will be corroded severely in their centerand southerly parts, and the erosive intensity will reach to 10 grams per square centimeter and their sand-fixing effect just be confined to 60% . In the aspect of seasonal changes of different norm concaves, the small ones present a medium accumulation from autumn to early winter, then a serious sand deposition in late winter and spring, and a light accumulation in from summer to autumn. Unlikely, these trends may be converted to erosive states with different degrees, especially in the winter and spring. As to the medium norms, the balanced concaves will have formed before the coming of winter, and later on the concave will keep a relatively stable shapealternately in weak erosion and deposition.In detail, the northwest and southwest part of each checkerboard are mainly depositional positions with the most marked extent among the four seasons, the center part is controlled by omnibearing wind directions resulting to be a erosive part for some medium and large norms. Besides, an integrated protection index of each dimensional straw-checkerboard showed that the medium norms have the largest value about 0.65 which means the best comprehensive protective benefit, including the longest duration, superior sand-fixing and wind-preventing effects and moderate economic costs. While the small norms are greatly troubled by the expensive cost so that they are unworthy to select in fact, but the large ones may become the candidate norms relying on their economic cost and long protection terms, even though the ecological benefits are not the most obvious. Compared comprehensively, the 1.5 m×1.5 mnorm should be selected as the most suitable dimension for this areal sand barrier, and the other dimensions should follow the principle of adjusting to local conditions and performing their functions best in practical application.

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    1960~2005年西北地区低云量的时空变化及成因分析
    王亚敏,冯起,李宗省
    地理科学. 2014, 34 (5): 635-640.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.05.635
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (685KB)

    基于西北地区177个站点1960~2005年逐日的低云量观测资料,运用地统计学、交叉小波分析和多元回归分析,分析了近46 a来西北地区低云量的时空变化特征及影响因素。结果表明:近46 a来西北地区低云量呈较显著上升趋势,1997年之后上升显著。低云量空间呈自东南向西北递减的趋势。低云量与降水、相对湿度等呈显著的正相关,与昼夜温差、日照时数等呈显著的负相关。低云量存在2~4 a、准6 a、准11 a的周期变化,与宇宙射线在1982~1993年存在5~8 a的共振周期,与NOI指数存在2~4 a、准5 a、准11 a的共振周期,和太阳黑子的共振周期为9~11 a。


    Clouds are a visible manifestation of thermo-dynamic processes in the atmosphere. Clouds have a strong influence on climate as a component of water cycle and through radiation budget. Surface based observation of cloud amount is a valuable source of information for the interpretation of the surface radiation budget and for the validation of satellite based retrievals of cloud and radiation properties. The correlation between cosmic rays and low cloud amount (LCA) variations, which led to the introduction of a new scientific subject-‘cosmoclimatology’, was found more than 10 years ago. Although much evidence implying correlations between low cloud amount variations and solar activity, the physical phenomenon explaining this is still poorly pronounced. In this article, we try to analysis spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, annual trend, and seasonal change of cloudiness over the northwest of China. In addition, the correlations among low cloud amount and climate factors, cosmic rays, NOI index and sunspot were discussed, respectively. With trend analysis method, the spatial-temporal variation of low cloud amount is analyzed for 177 stations on the Northwest China during 1960-2005. Analysis of these data reveals that the annual low cloud amount is characterised by high year-to-year variability and shows a weak, statistically significant increase in 1960-2005. A more pronounced increase in 1997-2005 is evident. Analysis indicates that the annual low cloud amount decreases from the southeast to the northwest of the Northwest China. A strong positive correlation is found among low cloud amount and rainfall, annual average temperature, relative humidity and annual low temperature, while a strong negative correlation is found among low cloud amount and average wind speed, diurnal temperature range and Sunshine Duration. The low cloud amount of Jaunary is positive with the relative humidity. However, the low cloud amount of July is positive with the average low temperature, and is negative with average wind speed, diurnal temperature range and sunshine duration, respectively. The cross wavelet transform method is adopted to study the time-frequency characteristics and multitime scale correlations among low cloud amount, cosmic rays, NOI index and sunspot was discussed, respectively. Results show that there are significant periods at scales of 2-4 a, 6 a and 11 a in low cloud amount over Northwest China. There are significant syntonic periods of 5-8 a between low cloud amount and the cosmic rays in 1982-1993, while the multi-time scale correlations between the low cloud amount and NOI index are 2-4 a, 5 a and 11 a syntonic period in 1960-2005 within the 95% of the red noise test, respectively. The low cloud amount and the sunspot number has a significant a syntonic periods 9-11 a, also within the 95% of the red noise test. A strong correlation was found between low cloud amount and cosmic rays, NOI index and sunspot, while the strongest correlation was found between low cloud amount and NOI index.

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