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  • 地理科学
      2016年, 第36卷, 第9期 刊出日期:2016-09-20 上一期    下一期
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    东北地区创新发展的突破路径与对策研究
    金凤君,王姣娥,杨宇,马丽,齐元静
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1285-1292.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.001
    摘要   HTML   PDF (430KB)

    在阐述创新发展与全面振兴关系基础上,深入剖析了创新发展的重要性、实施路径和对策措施抓手,提出了重构产业发展的智库体系、实施精准人才行动计划、促进大农业稳基增效计划、创新链支撑产业链行动等新思路、新模式和新机制,以及以功能区为平台构建创新发展环境与区域创新载体的观点。


    During the Fifth Plenum of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the five development ideas of “innovation, coordination, green, open, and sharing” are proposed and will be implemented in the thirteenth Five-Year Plan. In the five ideas, innovation is regarded as the first driver to promote the development of economy, especially the theoretical innovation, institutional innovation, technological innovation and culture innovation. In the traditional industry base in Northeast China, innovation is undoubtedly the key point to solve the structural and institutional obstacles, enhance the development of energy and abilities, and explore new development mode. On the basis of exploring the relationship between innovation development and overall revitalization, this article analyzes the significance, implementation way, and countermeasures of innovation development for comprehensively revitalizing Northeast China. In the third part, the article proposes new ideas, new patterns and new mechanisms for comprehensively revitalizing northeast China. First, the article suggests that it is the most important policy to reconstruct the think-tank systems and build the first driver for industry development. Second, it proposes to implement the precision talent action plan and supply safeguard for comprehensively revitalizing northeast China. Third, it promotes action for stabling the agriculture yields and promoting the product quality, and further pushes the innovation of modern agricultural development. Fourth, it recommends implementing the innovation action for the whole industry chain, improving the productivity and increasing the production efficiency. Fifth, it puts forward to the perspective of taking the function zone to be the flat of innovation development environment and regional innovation carrier. On one hand, to realize the comprehensively revitalization northeast China, the central government should: 1) make breakthroughs in reform and innovation in important areas, including deepen reform of the administrative system, further streamline administration and delegate more power to lower-level governments; 2) usher in a new phase of Northeast China’s opening to the outside world and ensure its high standard performance; 3) advance agricultural modernization and rural reform and development; 4) use the innovation to support and lead economic structural improvement and upgrading. On the other hand, the Northeast China should make the most of the government's innovation and entrepreneurship drive to turn innovation into a major source of development, according to the document.

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    国有企业创新发展与东北三省经济增长:基于VEC模型的分析
    王伟光,侯军利,白雪飞
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1293-1300.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.002
    摘要   HTML   PDF (483KB)

    在构建国有企业创新发展对地区经济增长影响的理论模型基础上,设计国有企业创新发展与经济增长评价指标体系,基于协整和VEC模型,对东北三省国有企业对经济数量增长和经济质量增长的作用进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:东北三省国有企业创新发展与地区经济增长数量和质量之间的关系存在着非同步性,而且这种关系特点也与全国地区的实证结果存在显著的差异性。


    The state-owned enterprise has been playing an irreplaceable role in the regional industrial technological progress, structural transformation and economic growth. In the construction of state-owned enterprise innovation and development of regional economic growth effect theoretical model, through the construction of the innovation and development of state-owned enterprises and economic growth evaluation index system, based on Cointegration and VEC model, this article analyzes on the number of economic growth and the quality of the economy growth of state-owned enterprises in three provinces of the Northeast China. The empirical results indicate that there is a non synchronous relation between quality and quantity of state-owned enterprise innovation and development and regional economic growth in the three provinces of Northeast China and it is significantly different to their relationship in the whole China. From the view of the impact of innovation development on the quantity and quality of economic growth in state-owned enterprises, in the short term, the level of innovation promotes the economic growth quantity and quality of the three provinces in Northeast China, but in the long run, the growth in the quantity of the economy is based on the decline of the quality of the economy. In the three provinces of Northeast China, the impact of the level of innovation shows the difference. Whether in the whole country or in the provinces in Northeast China or not, the quantity and the quality of economic growth mutually promote each other. In the three provinces of Northeast China, the quantity of economic growth has more influence on the quality of economic growth. In terms of the relationship between quantity and quality of economic growth, firstly, the level of innovation development promotes economic growth by capital investment, and the quantity of growth is bound to bring about the improvement of economic quality. To be further, economic quality growth will bring a breakthrough in the quantity of economic growth. Therefore, the future economic growth should practice the social system, natural system and economic system to achieve a harmonious and sustainable economic development model.

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    基于生态位理论的东北三省政府干预强度与市场化水平格局演变研究
    刘洋,王雨飞,刘勇,王光辉
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1301-1309.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.003
    摘要   HTML   PDF (1607KB)

    以“政府干预强度”和“市场化水平”为研究对象,通过对其生态系统的剖析,构建相应的评价指标体系及其生态位模型,并选取东北三省地级市为评价对象,对其“强政府弱市场”格局和演变趋势进行分析。定量分析的主要结论为:东北三省普遍存在“强政府弱市场”现状,其中黑龙江省最为突出,其次为吉林省、辽宁省;东北三省“强政府弱市场”格局出现多次波动,仅2003~2005年降幅较高,说明2003年“东北振兴战略”影响效果的持续性较短;东北各地市“强政府弱市场”格局具有明显的区域溢出效应,格局较明显的区域主要集中在离中心城市或沿海口岸较远的黑龙江省北部以及辽宁省、吉林省的部分内陆城市。


    Through analyzing the ecological system, the corresponding evaluation index system and ecological niche models have been constructed to evaluate the government intervention intense and marketization level of the three provinces in Northeast China and 34 cities at the prefectural level. Then the pattern and trend of "government functions play a leading role while market functions play a supporting role" is further analyzed. A significant conclusion drawn out of the article when having conducted quantitative analyses is that there generally exists the status quo with "the government playing a leading role while the market playing a supporting role" in the three provinces in Northeast China and such a fact is the most prominent in Heilongjiang Province but less and less prominent in Jilin Province and Liaoning Province in turn. There is a fact that the setup with “the government playing a leading role while the market playing a supportive role” has witnessed a number of fluctuations in various areas in Northeast China but the decreasing margin was the largest from 2003 to 2005. It is proved that the influence of the Strategy of Revitalizing Northeast China formulated in 2003 is rather less sustainable, and that the setup with "the government playing a leading role while the market playing a supporting role" has an obvious regional spillover effect in various prefectures and cities in Northeast China. Such a setup is more obviously distributed in those regions that are rather far away from key cities or ports on the coast, including North Heilongjiang and certain inland cities in both Liaoning and Jilin Provinces.

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    东北地区产业发展与工业SO2排放的时空耦合效应
    马丽,张博,杨宇
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1310-1319.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.004
    摘要   HTML   PDF (1002KB)

    以工业SO2为对象,以东北地级市( 本文“地级市”包括东北三省内的哈尔滨、长春、沈阳、大连4个副省级城市。)为研究单元,运用脱钩指数分析了工业产值变化与SO2排放规模变化的动态耦合关系及空间格局,并利用LMDI因素分解法对各地市工业SO2排放变化从规模增长、结构转型和技术升级3方面进行解析。研究发现,在东北地区产业发展过程中,工业产值规模的增长对工业SO2排放增长呈现正向驱动;而工业技术的进步和节能减排措施的使用促进了工业SO2排放的降低,而产业结构的作用因区域而异。在环渤海湾地区以及辽源、松原、鹤岗、伊春、七台河、绥化等以木材加工和煤电为核心产业发展的城市,能源基础原材料产业比重的上升促进了地区工业SO2排放的增加。最后根据不同地市工业SO2减排的主要驱动因素和限制因素,针对性的分类型、分区域提出促进东北地区产业绿色转型的政策建议。


    In order to find the impact of industrial transformation on the industrial pollution discharge and its spatial pattern, this article analyzes the dynamic coupling relationship between industrial growth and SO2 emission with the index of decoupling coefficients with industrial SO2 as the object and prefecture level city of as the unit. It was found that the industrial outputs of cities in Northeast China have really increased while its industrial SO2 emission decreased in 2005-2013. So, the revitalization of old industrial base in Northeast China could be seen as “green revitalization”. Then, the LMDI model was used to divide the decoupling coefficients into scale, industrial structure and technology upgrading effect. This article found that the scale effect expressed as growth of industrial output value has a positive driving impact on the growth of industrial SO2 emissions; industrial technology progress promotes the industrial SO2 emission reduction, and industrial structure's role varies from city to city. Mostly, the higher technology effect is concentrated in special industrial cities in the peripheral of mega city region while scale effect is concentrated in core mega city and coastal cities in Liaoning Province. Industrial transformation of Shenyang metropolitan area is significant and effective, where the development of equipment manufacture sector and decrease of ratio of high SO2-load sectors in total output had led into the reducing of SO2 emission. On the other side, in the cities around Bohai Sea of Liaoning Province and cities with wood processing and basic energy and raw material industries as regional pillar industry in Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces, the rising of ratio of energy and basic material sector to total industrial output has led to the growth of industrial SO2 emission. Finally, according to the main driving factors and limiting factors of SO2 emission reduction in different cities, this article puts forward policy recommendations to promote the green transformation in Northeast China.

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    东北振兴以来地区经济发展水平演化及空间分异模式
    王姣娥,杜德林
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1320-1329.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.005
    摘要   HTML   PDF (868KB)

    从经济基础、经济增长和经济结构等方面构建了地区经济发展水平的综合评价指标体系,并采用因子分析法和ESDA方法,从地级行政区尺度对东北振兴战略实施以来的经济发展水平、空间格局及演化规律进行研究。研究发现:过去十多年来,东北地区整体经济发展水平取得了一定的成就,但内部发展差异呈扩大趋势,黑龙江省北部成为东北经济发展最薄弱的地区;在空间上,东北经济发展呈现出集聚性,并主要表现为核心-边缘、轴带集聚发展以及沿海-沿边等空间分异模式。


    In recent years, the economic development of Northeast China has come to the new normal state, the overall economic development has grown downward, and the phenomenon has become the focus concerned by researchers and the society. However, the development gap between cities is gradually expanding, and it has become a main barrier for Northeast China to achieve all-round well-off society. As such, this article builds a comprehensive evaluation index system for economic development level by three terms of economic base, economic growth and economic structure. Then the paper comprehensively studies the economic development, spatial differentiation and its evolution of Northeast China over its revitalized 10 years through factor analysis method and ESDA. The results are as follows: 1) Over the past 10 years, the economic development of Northeast China has obtained a certain degree of improvement. But the overall economic development level of Northeast China rises first and then decreases. 2) The economic development of Northeast China is spatially clustered, and the trend is strengthened over time. Meanwhile, the differences of cities on Northeast China are expanding. The northern area of Heilongjiang province is the weakest area of economic development level in Northeast China. 3) The economic development level of the cities whichareold industrial bases has been promoted at a certain degree, while that of the resource-based cities has been declined.The differences of economic development of the resource-based cities are more significant. Among the resource-based cities, the economic development level of the recessionary cities decline seriously, such as Yichun, Hegang, Shuangyashan, Qitaihe and Daxing’anling. At the same time, these cities only belong to the resource-based cities. 4) In terms of the economic development of Northeast China, it shows three kinds of patterns: the core-periphery mode with the core of four megacities, the agglomeration development pattern with the growth axis from Harbin to Dalian, and the mode with the economic development differences between the southern coastal cities to the northern border cities. The economic development of cities located in the axis from Harbin to Dalian or around the four major urban agglomerations is well. In order to impel the development of Northeast China, the government should lower the regional economic development well, and prevent further expanding of differences among these cities. When developing the cities belong to old industrial base constantly, the government should make the reasonable industrial transformation and increase policy support for the resource-based cities especially the recessionary cities, then gradually improve the ability of economic development. The northern are of Heilongjiang Province needs to get more support from the Central government, who should promote its economic development and prevent the gap with other cities to expand further.

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    东北三省对外直接投资空间格局及影响因素
    郑蕾,刘毅,刘卫东
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1329-1337.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.006
    摘要   HTML   PDF (7918KB)

    对外直接投资不仅是东北三省建立全方位开放型经济体制的必经阶段,也是实现全面经济振兴的重要契机。在中国进入对外投资加速发展阶段的背景下,“一带一路”战略、东北亚经济圈建设等为东北三省对外直接投资发展提供了机遇。利用2003~2014年的省际对外直接投资规模、境外投资机构等数据,全面分析了东北三省对外直接投资的发展路径、空间特征及其在国内地位,并采用地理加权回归(GWR)模型深入地分析了东北三省对外直接投资的关键影响因素及其时空差异,最后提出相应的空间发展战略及政策建议。研究表明:东北三省对外直接投资主要集中在农、林、矿等资源型行业,具有显著的贸易服务、市场服务特征,并且对政府和国有经济的依赖较大;技术水平和金融环境对东北三省对外直接投资的推动力仍有较大的提升空间;未来东北三省应推进企业联合投资和空间差异化投资战略,发挥国有企业的投资带动作用,加强对科技型企业和技术追寻型对外直接投资的鼓励和支持。


    China has entered the era of rapid outward direct investment (ODI) expansion. Recently, “the Belt and Road” strategy and the Northeast Asia Economic Integration have provided boarder opportunities for outward direct investment of Northeast China. Promoting ODI is not only a necessary stage for Northeast China to build all-round opening up economy, but also a developing chance for revitalization of Northeast China. With the provincial ODI data by captical and insititutions from 2003 to 2014, this article firstly analyzes the spatio-temporal pattern of Northeast Chinese ODI. Then we used the geographically weighted regression model to detect the crucial factors that influence the development of Northeast Chinese ODI as well as its changing trend. Based on previous analysis, several suggestions were proposed to facilitate Northeast Chinese ODI. The results are as follows: 1) Northeast Chinese embraced a rapid growth after the financial crisis in 2008, but faced with downward pressure recently. The divergence of provincial ODI enlarged quickly, especially after 2008 when ODI of Liaoning province promptly surpassed ODI of Heilongjiang province. 2) Firms in Northeast China tend to invest directly near their home, thus the largest host country of Northeast Chinese ODI is Russia. Korea Peninsula and Japan are also on the list of the most attractive destinations the most attractive destinations of Northeast Chinese ODI. 3) Resource-seeking ODI is typical in Northeast China. More than 40% Northeast Chinese firms invested abroad in forestry, farming and mining industries. And most Northeast Chinese ODI aims at market and trade service. 4) GDP, export and the level of economy nationalization had positive influence with Northeast Chinese ODI from 2003 to 2013. GDP and export had relatively less impact on ODI in Northeast China than in other regions, while the level of economy nationalization played more and more important role in the expansion of Northeast Chinese ODI. In contrast, the impact of technology on ODI was not so significant in Northeast China. The gap of supply and demand of resource turned to be the most critical factor of the development of Northeast Chinese ODI from 2003 to 2013. Financial environment was supportive for firms in Northeast China to invest directly abroad in 2003, but became backward or even adverse in 2013. In the end, based on the results, we proposed that firms in Northeast provinces should enhance cooperation when investing abroad, and take a spatially differentiated investing strategy to avoid vicious competition. Heilongjiang province may aim at the market in Russia and Mongolia, while Jilin province may focus on investing in Korea and Japan. Liaoning province should strengthen ODI in North America and Europe, as well as critical coutries along the Maritime Silk Road such as Singapore, India and Indonesia. Northest China should exploit the advantages of SOEs to promote private ODI. Local governments of Northest China should further implement effective financial policies to encourage technology-seeking ODI and promote reverse technology spillover.

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    东北地区创新资源与产业协同发展研究
    焦敬娟,王姣娥,刘志高
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1338-1348.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.007
    摘要   HTML   PDF (4300KB)

    采用探索性空间数据分析和象限图法,以县区为基本研究单元,从空间和行业2个视角,探讨东北地区创新资源和产业发展的集聚性和协同性。通过研究发现:东北地区创新资源和产业发展均表现出明显的空间集聚性,主要集中在沈阳、大连、长春和哈尔滨等城市市辖区,但在市辖区内部集聚区存在较大差异,导致创新资源和产业发展协调性在四大城市市辖区及其周边县区呈严重偏离特征,尤其是汽车制造业和通用设备制造业,而医药制造业和专用设备制造业空间协同性较好;从行业分析,通用设备制造业、化学原料和化学制品制造业、医药制造业和专用设备制造业集聚了东北地区55%的发明专利,而43.3%的工业总产值集中在农副食品加工业、汽车制造业,黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业,非金属矿物制品业,石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业等5大行业,导致各行业创新资源和产业发展的协同性相对较低,且仅非金属制造业的协同性高于所有行业平均水平。


    Influenced by the development of knowledge economy and scientific technology, innovation-driven development is becoming an important strategy of economic development. The spatial patterns of innovation resources and its’ relation with economic development largely influence the economic development. Therefore, it is significant to explore the relationship between innovation resources and industry development. This article examines the relationship between innovation resources and industry development from both the spatial and industrial perspectives, using the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis and quadrant map approach. The results indicate that: both the innovation resources and industry development are under the state of agglomeration in space, while the degree of spatial agglomeration of different industrial sectors are quite different. The industrial sectors of automobile industry, general equipment manufacturing industry, special equipment manufacturing industry and medicine industry have relatively higher degree of spatial agglomeration than the others. Spatially, the counties and districts of Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun and Harbin belong to the over-innovation or under-innovation, especially the industrial sectors of automobile industry and general equipment manufacturing industry, while the spatial patterns of the relationship between innovation resources and industry development share the different characters.

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    中国东北三省对外贸易空间格局研究
    刘志高,张薇,刘卫东
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1349-1358.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.008
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    分析了东北三省整体的对外贸易规模及贸易伙伴,在此基础上,分别从省级和地市级尺度比较研究了东北三省内部对外贸易空间格局,以及东北三省在不同贸易空间方向上的商品结构。研究结果表明:东北三省与东南亚、中东等地区贸易规模有所增长,但日韩、德国、美国和俄罗斯等依然是其主要的贸易伙伴;东北三省对外贸易的商品多为原材料、初级加工品和劳动密集型产品等,且商品结构趋同明显,不利于发挥地区的比较优势;大城市和沿海港口城市是东北三省对外贸易重要的空间载体。根据东北三省及各自的对外贸易现状和面临的挑战,提出了差异化的进出口贸易空间格局优化策略。


    Economic growth rate in northeast China has dropped suddenly in the latest two years, beyond a reasonable range. “New Northeast Phenomenon” has attracted widespread attention from academic community and policy-makers, the rejuvenation of northeast China has been one hot-debated national development issue. Expanding opening up and developing foreign trades, is not only an important part of the whole strategy of rejuvenation of northeast China, but the significant method to achieve the revitalization of northeast. To identify the trading partner, the key industrial fields and space carriers of foreign trade in Northeast China, is much importance to upgrading the foreign trade volume and level. Firstly, this article analyzes the overall trading volume and partners of Northeast China. Secondly, it studies the internal spatial pattern of foreign trade at provincial and prefecture levels, as well as commodity structures of foreign trade in Northeast China. Data sources include 2003-2014 Statistical Yearbook and Statistical Bulletin of three provinces in Northeast China, Chinese customs statistics in 2014. The results show that: 1) While trade volume with Southeast Asia and Middle East has grown, Japan, South Korea, Germany, the United States and Russia has remained the important trading partners for Northeast China. 2) The trading commodity are mostly raw materials, primary processed products and labor-intensive products, implying the commodity exported from northeast China as whole is low- value added . 3) Major cities and coastal port cities are the main spatial carriers of foreign trading in Northeast China. Additionally, the article put forwards the different development strategy for foreign trade according to the current situation and challenges.

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    东北地区资源型产业发展特征及对策建议
    杨宇,董雯,刘毅,李小云
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1359-1370.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.009
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    通过资源型产业竞争力和空间集聚扩散等分析,得出以下结论:东北地区资源型产业基础地位明显,具有良好的结构效应,但相比全国资源型产业的发展,行业竞争力相对较弱。资源型产业空间分布不均衡,不同城市对资源型产业依赖程度各异。不同资源型产业的空间集聚与扩散态势及演化路径不同。针对这些特征,提出东北地区应针对不同资源型产业实施差异化的产业调整方案、加快技术创新体系建设提高资源型产业附加值、以产业区为空间支点推动资源型产业政策精准化、以大型企业集团为抓手推动资源型产业空间优化配置和利用境内境外两种资源保障东北地区资源型产业持续发展等方面提出了对策建议。


    Resources based industry (RBI) is not only a main industry that drives secondary industry development but it is also the basis of manufactures such as products of the petrochemical industry. It plays an important role in the regional development of Northeast China for hundred years. Nowadays, RBI is the most significant foundation to promote China’s government’s strategy of revitalizing old Northeastern industrial bases. It is of great academic and practical value to analyze to RBI development and its spatial evolution. We employ the Shift-Share analysis and exploratory spatial data analysis to examine the characteristics of RBI. Conclusions are as follows: 1) Shift-Share analysis shows that structure effect of RBI is higher than competitive effect. Both structure effect and competitive effect of Jinlin province are high, which represent a good growth trend. RBI of Heilongjiang province shows an opposite condition. Both of the two effects are negative value, indicating a depressed RBI development status. The main growth of RBI in Liaoning province comes from structure effect rather than competitive effect; 2) Spatial distribution of RBI shows an unbalanced status. Different cities have different dependence on RBI. Based on the ratio of RBI, cities are divided into 5 classifications. 3) Viewing from Moran’s I,RBI shows a trend from random to aggregation. Hot spots of RBI are moving towards coastal regions of Liaoning province. Different industries present different spatial evolution characteristics.According to these characteristics, some suggestions are pointed out, e.g. different industry policy, RBI technological innovation, industry zone and precision management,spatial optimal allocation and resources-oriented international strategy.

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    全球价值链下区域分工地位与产业升级对策研究——以东北三省为例
    余振,顾浩
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1371-1377.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.010
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    利用投入产出分析法,在测算出国家层面的各产业GVC分工地位指数的基础上,引入东北三省内的地区和产业差异因素,估算出东北三省工业产业的全球价值链分工地位。研究发现,整体上东北三省采矿业等基础工业贸易增值量较大,但存在严重的产能过剩和低端锁定威胁;而其制造工业在全球价值链中的分工地位较低,对外贸易中表现出较为明显的比较劣势,并且这一劣势还存在恶化倾向。就各省来看,基础工业方面,辽宁省在采矿业上的比较劣势相对较小,黑龙江省在采矿业上存在更为严重的产能过剩和低端锁定风险,而在制造业上吉林省的比较劣势较大。因此,东北三省要实现全球价值链分工地位提升和产业结构升级,就需要转变传统的产业发展和外贸理念,加强创新能力建设,将高新信息技术与传统工业生产相结合,发展新型工业化模式,在借鉴国外有益经验的基础上,走创新驱动的集约化发展道路。


    This article applies input-output analysis method to measuring the global value chain position of Northeast China’s industries. We find that in the northeast of China, the mining and other basic industries have a large amount of value-added in trade, but are faced with the threats of excess capacity and low-end locking. While the status of manufacturing industries is relatively low in trade, these industries show an obvious comparative disadvantage that tends to deteriorate. In terms of specific province in Northeast China, the overall level of industrial technology and status in Liaoning Province is higher, whose disadvantage in the mining is relatively small, the disadvantages of Jilin Province in the manufacturing industry is larger, and Heilongjiang Province has an average level of industrial value chain position, but has a more serious excess capacity and low-end locking risk in the mining. Therefore, in order to upgrade the global value chain position of Northeast China, we need to transform the traditional principle of industry development and foreign trade, strengthen the construction of innovation ability and combine information technology with traditional industry to realize a new industrial pattern and innovation-driven intensive development.

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    东北地区工业基地演化路径研究
    陈琳琳,金凤君,洪辉
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1378-1387.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.011
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    东北地区的工业基地在中国现代化进程中做出过突出贡献,但由于种种原因其工业明显衰退并逐步成为问题区域,产业转型是破解发展困境的关键。论文构建了工业基地识别指标体系,从全国尺度对1985、2001和2010年东北地区工业基地进行识别和筛选,分析其演化特征,探讨不同类型工业基地的产业演化路径。研究结论:整体工业地位显著下降,多数基地产业结构单一,以传统产业为主的产业结构未发生实质性改变,装备制造业发展尤其缓慢;资源型工业基地一直维持单一产业主导的发展方式,产业转型应当在资源开发的同时向资源深加工方向转变,从而发展成为新型原材料基地,或延伸产业链,建设能源、基础原材料和装备制造的综合工业体;成熟型工业基地的产业组合方式由多种行业组合向双行业主导的轨迹演变,未来发展应继续依托产业园区,推动先进制造业发展;衰退型工业基地产业组合由多种产业组合发展向单一产业主导的方向演变,未来应依托所在区域的一体化分工,逐步推进自身的工业发展。


    Industrial bases in Northeast China have made outstanding contributions to China’s modernization. However, the industries in this area declined sharply due to variety of reasons, which gradually became a regional problem. Industrial transition must be the key to solve the plight of its economic development. This article constructs an index system of industrial bases identification. From the national scale, it identifies and selects different industrial bases in Northeast China at the year 1985, 2001 and 2010. It then analyses the evolution characteristics of those industrial bases and explores different industrial evolution paths according to their types. Conclusions are as follows: 1) The overall industry status significantly decreased in Northeast China from 1985 to 2010. Most of its industrial bases have single industrial structures, which are dominated by traditional industries. This kind of structure has not undergone substantial changes, especially the equipment manufacturing industry. 2) Industrial bases in Northeast China can be extracted as three types: resource-based, mature and declining. Their industrial structure evolution paths are different, so are the corresponding transition modes. Resource-based industrial bases have maintained a single dominant industry. Their transformation should turn to resources deep processing while exploiting. The main focus of transformation should be on how to strengthen the supporting capability of alternative industries. As a result, this kind of bases would become new raw material bases or extend their industry chains to build comprehensive industrial bodies including energy, basic raw materials and equipment manufacturing. 3) The industry combination of mature industrial bases changed from multi-industry portfolio to double-industry portfolio. Mature industrial bases should continue to rely on industrial parks, developing advanced manufacturing and promoting industrialization by new urbanization. It means to develop modern service industry, improve urban environment and strengthen infrastructure construction. It aims to promote the products-manufacturing industries transforming to service-oriented ones as well as coordinate the development of manufacturing and service industries. 4) The industry combination of declining industrial bases evolved from multi-industry mixed mode to signal industry dominated mode. In the future, the development of declining industrial bases should depend on the division of regional integration, so as to promote their own industry development gradually.

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    东北地区的创新能力演化及其经济带动作用分析
    宋周莺,车姝韵,王姣娥
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1388-1396.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.012
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    通过建立创新能力指标体系和计算模型,并采用相关分析、回归分析、变异系数等方法,从不同空间层级剖析了东北三省的创新能力发展格局及其对经济发展的带动作用,并根据研究结果提出了相关政策建议。研究发现:从创新能力分析,吉林、辽宁的创新能力增长较快而黑龙江相对较慢,省际差异呈扩大态势;地级市之间的创新能力相差悬殊,呈现明显的省会城市及门户城市集聚效应,但市级差异呈缩小态势。 从创新贡献率分析,辽宁的科技创新转化能力及其对经济发展的带动相对较强,而吉林、黑龙江相对较弱;地级市差异较大,沈阳、大连、长春、大庆的创新贡献率比较突出,而锦州、吉林、盘锦、铁岭上升较快。大部分地级市的创新发展对经济带动模式为“低创新能力-弱经济带动”和“高创新能力-强经济带动”,说明各地级市的创新发展及其对经济带动的两极分化较严重。


    In the globalization and information era, with the development of knowledge economy, regional innovation capacity is increasingly becoming the determinant of competitive advantage. Especially for Northeastern Old Industrial Base, the innovation of science and technology has become the key support for improving comprehensive regional strength, and the strong lead for changing the mode of regional industrial structure and production. It is against such a background that this article takes a close examination on the spatio-temporal evolution of innovation capacity and its economic contribution in Northeast China. Based on literature review, principal components analysis and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, we establish innovation capacityindex(ICI), in order to provide a more comprehensive explanation of innovation development trends. We also try to gauge and justify the economic impacts of innovation development, by regression analysis and modeling economic contribution of innovation(ECI). The findings of this article are salutary. In general, in 2003-2014, Northeast China has achieved a great development in regional innovation capacity, and has improved the economic contribution of innovation. But its rank in China has declined, as the development of ICI in Western China and Central China are much faster. Firstly, the development of ICI in Jilin and Liaoning Province are much faster than Heilongjiang, while provincial gap is becoming bigger. At local scale, there are significant regional differences in ICI, while regional digital gap is becoming smaller. Secondly, the spatial distribution of ICI has obviously positive correlation with local GDP development. At provincial scale, innovation in Liaoning Province has strongly promoted economic development, while Jilin and Heilongjiang Province are much weakly. At local scale, the difference of ECI among cities is also very remarkable, while Shenyang, Dalian, Changchun and Daqing share much higher ECI. Thirdly, the development model of most cities are ‘low ICI-low ECI’ and ‘high ICI-high ECI’, which illustrate that there are critical spatial difference between cities’innovation capacity and its economic contribution.

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    东北西部粮食生产时空格局变化及优化布局研究
    陈玉洁,张平宇,刘世薇,谭俊涛
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1397-1407.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.013
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    利用2003~2013年东北西部各县市粮食生产统计数据,运用聚类分析、粮食贡献度和PSR模型方法,分析东北西部粮食生产格局变化及其影响因素,根据国家“镰刀弯”地区规划提出的玉米种植面积调减目标,对各县市具体调减值进行核算,得出以下主要结论。从2003年以来,粮食播种面积和产量明显向玉米、水稻两种作物集中,而相对低产的大豆所占比例明显下降;粮食生产格局发生明显变化,多数地区被以玉米为主的类型区取代。2003~2013年东北西部粮食增产主要归因于种植面积扩大,其次是粮食单产提高,受粮食作物结构影响较小。东北西部耕地生态安全评价值均小于0.6,处于不安全级至临界安全级阈值范围内,其中不安全级和较不安全级所占比重为97.01%,集中呈片状分布,亟待调整区域种植结构以提高耕地生态安全。东北西部玉米播种面积调减总目标为145.20万hm2,其中农牧交错带调减113.23万hm2,冷凉区调减31.97万hm2,调减地区主要集中在赤峰市、通辽市、兴安盟、吉林西部和辽宁西部地区的部分县市等玉米为主的类型区。东北西部各县市在调减玉米种植面积的过程中,应充分考虑耕地生态安全、农民的生计替代和利益补偿等问题,做到科学、合理、有序地调减玉米种植面积。


    Using grain production statistical data at county level from 2003 to 2013, this article analyzes the spatio-temporal pattern and its main driving factor of grain production in the west of Northeast China. Based on K-means cluster analysis, grain production contribution rate and PSR conceptual framework model is established. According to the given target of reducing maize sown area in the planned "sickle-shape" area of China, theoretic target of specific reducing maize sown area is calculated at county level in the west of Northeast China. This can provide a scientific reference for the optimum layout of grain production and change of grain structure. The results indicate that grain sown area and grain production has presented a rising trend in the west of Northeast China since 2003. More specifically, maize and rice have an advantage in grain sown area and production quantities, while the proportion of soybean decreases. Spatial pattern of grain production in the west of Northeast China had changed apparently. Most of this region has been replaced by the maize-based type due to an expansion of maize planting. The grain sown area, rather than the grain yield per hectare and inner-grain structure, is the main influential factor from the result of grain production contribution rate during 2003 to 2013. Evaluation composite index score of cultivated land ecological security in the west of Northeast China were all under 0.6 and all these composite index scores were in the range of the threshold interval between insecurity type and critical-insecurity type. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the insecurity type and relative-insecurity type were dominant, of which the percentage was 97.01%, and these two type region were concentrated-distribution. Therefore, measures must be taken urgently to adjust the grain structure for improving land ecological security in the west of Northeast China. Given the target of reducing maize sown area in the "sickle-shape" area and the theoretic result of PSR framework model, the theoretically calculated planning target of reducing maize sown area in the west of Northeast China is totally 1.45×106 hm2 (21.78×106 mu). In more detail, the theoretic reducing maize sown area is 1.13×106 hm2 (16.98×106 mu) in the agro-pasture transitional zone and the theoretic reducing maize sown area is 0.32×106 hm2 (4.80×106 mu) in the north cold region. On the basis of theoretic calculation, the regions of reducing maize sown area are mainly distributed in some counties of Chifeng City, Tongliao City, Xingan League, in the west of Jilin Province, in the west of Liaoning Province and some maize-based type region. According to previous analysis and results, reducing land should be conducted based on local ecology, economy and society conditions in the process of reducing maize sown area at county level. Simultaneously, land ecological security, the peasant livelihood substitute and benefit compensation should be taken fully into account to reduce maize sown area scientifically, rationally and sequentially.

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    长江经济带经济-环境协调发展格局及演变
    邹辉,段学军
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1408-1417.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.014
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    通过经济与环境系统的协调发展度评估,分析了长江经济带经济环境协调发展的时空演变格局,并对经济带经济发展、环境污染与环境质量的格局与态势展开探讨。研究表明:经济带协调发展度空间差异显著,东部地区明显大于中西部地区,沿江地区高于非沿江地区。高度协调型主要分布在长三角地区及少数中西部省会城市;高度失调型主要分布在重庆、皖北、滇西南、鄂中等地区;江西与四川是协调型转为失调型的集中地区。长三角核心城市经济地位依然凸显,但长三角边缘地区城市经济位序呈下降趋势,中西部地区部分城市经济位序上升明显。工业废水排放以重庆、苏州、杭州为最多,工业SO2排放呈现3大集中地带。城市空气质量较差的是长三角边缘地区以及中西部沿江地区,城市空气质量总体上与工业SO2排放、工业烟尘排放在空间格局上较为吻合。长江干流断面水质上游(川滇渝)与下游(苏沪)较差,一定程度上反映了沿江地区工业废水排放对长江水质的影响。最后,从树立发展与保护双重使命,创新经济带开发体制机制;推进下游城市经济转型升级,培育中上游新的经济增长极;落实最严格的管理制度,共建生态文明示范带等方面提出发展建议。


    Resources and environment are material conditions of economic development and foundation of human survival, which can promote economy development, both hinder economy development sometimes. In the long-term practice and study, people gradually realize the importance of coordinated development relationship between economy and environment. In recent years, the Changjiang River Economic Belt (CREB) becomes national development strategy, which ought to take task of driving economic development and shoulder responsibility of ecological environment protection. In this article, we firstly evaluate space and time patterns of economic-environmental coordinated development in CREB, and then analyze industrial pollution emissions and environmental quality situation of CREB. Results show below. Economic-environmental coordinated development degree reveals spatial differences that degree of the eastern CREB is bigger than central and eastern regions, and regions along the Changjiang River is higher than other regions. Regions with high coordinated development degree are mainly located in the Changjiang River Delta and parts in the capital cities of central and eastern CREB. Otherwise, regions with low coordinated development degree mainly are located in Chongqing, central Hubei Province, the northern Anhui Province and the southwestern Yunnan Province. Industrial wastewater discharges mostly in Chongqing, Suzhou and Hangzhou. Cities with coordinated development degree declined mainly are located in Jiangxi Province and Sichuan Province. Economic status of cities in the core of Changjiang River Delta is still prominent, but that of peripheral cities in the Changjiang River Delta is in a downward trend; and economy level rank of some cities in the central and western CREB rises significantly. Chongqing, Suzhou and Hangzhou are the regions which discharge industrial wastewater emissions mostly. Regions with most industrial SO2 emissions reveal three concentrated areas where are “Z” glyph area in the Changjiang River Delta, southwest area and central area. Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Nantong, Xuzhou discharge industrial fumes emissions mostly. Cities with poor air quality are located in peripheral Changjiang River Delta and central and eastern CREB along the Changjiang River. Section water quality of Changjiang River upstream and downstream is poorer; nevertheless that in middle is better. Three suggestions put forward for CREB development: 1) To shoulder the dual responsibility of economic development and environmental protection and innovate system and mechanism of CREB development (e.g. green GDP). 2) To promote downstream urban economic transformation and upgrading and foster new economic growth poles in the upstream and midstream of the Changjiang River. At the same time, cities in the upstream and midstream should transfer concept of economic development from “race to bottom” to “race to up” and avoid serious pollution transfer in the industry transfer process. 3) To implement the most strict management and legal system and build demonstration belt of ecological civilization.

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    多层级治理视角下跨界地区合作模式探究——以广佛为例
    魏宗财,陈婷婷,李郇,谢石营
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1418-1425.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.015
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    基于多层级治理的视角,以广州、佛山两市为研究地区,通过深入访谈、文献资料分析等方法,从宏观政策尺度和微观项目尺度分别对广佛两市及其所辖的区、街镇不同层级政府在实施《珠江三角洲地区改革发展规划纲要(2008~2020年)》过程中,跨界地区合作模式制度建构及实践进行了深入研究。出于行政压力和经济利益的驱动,地级市政府的角色出现了新的变化,水平联系显著增强,促成了跨界地区合作在制度建构方面的新进展,形成了“以项目库为载体的地级市单一合作模式”。研究发现,这种新的合作模式有助于将不同城市的诉求表达程序化,可以协调合作过程中存在的问题及督办项目的进展,具有较强的可操作性和可监督性;但也存在一些不足。受限于行政管理体制,目前的跨界合作集中在地级市单一层级,区及镇街政府缺乏直接合作的平台;合作平台不能全天候运作;缺乏相应的激励机制,地方政府的积极性难以持续等。


    Since 2008, China has adopted a new round of regional planning and regions have formulated diverse regional plans to enhance their competitiveness. One of the most notable features is that the decentralization of central government facilitating the efforts of local governments on institutional innovation. However, previous studies examined cross-border region cooperation is conceptual, but the empirical studies are limited and little has known about the roles of local governments involved in for planning implementation. Pearl River Delta Reform and Development Plan (2008-2020) is the first regional planning proposed by provincial government and issued by central government in 2008. Its implementation and the role of local governments involved is a less researched area. There are a large number of research works regarding multi-level governance theory in the western academic world. However, whether it works well under Chinese context need a further exploration. Guangzhou-Foshan Metropolitan region is selected as a case. By means of in-depth interview and document analysis, this article aims to examine the roles of different levels of local governments in Guangzhou-Foshan regions in the process of implementing the Pearl River Delta Reform and Development Plan (2008-2020) by the combination of the macro perspective, policy initiatives, with micro perspective, project analysis. Driven by administrative pressures and economic development, the roles of provincial government and municipal governments have changed, and cross-border region cooperation has made good progress on institutional building. Moreover, it is found that the existing mode of Guangzhou-Foshan cooperation is regarded as a type of “project-based municipal city-level single cooperation mode”, which is rather vulnerable and instable; and this mode is quite different from western practices of multi-level governance. Despite the fact that the vertical communication and interaction between different local authorizes have increased, the governments at the district level and town level do not have an effective communication platform and a directly cooperative mechanism, due to the restriction of current administrative system in China. The citizens are excluded from this cross-border region cooperation, and have no channels to express their demands. The findings provide some policy implications on regional planning implementation and cross-border region cooperation for other regions in China.

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    徐州都市圈工业结构转型及其影响效应分析
    仇方道,刘继斌,唐晓丹,朱传耿,张纯敏
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1426-1436.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.016
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    在GIS空间分析技术支持下,采用工业结构转型相关指数方法,深入分析了2000~2012年徐州都市圈工业结构转型的时空演化特征及其对区域发展的影响效应。发现:近10 a来徐州都市圈工业转型速度、高级化呈较快提升趋势,且与工业经济增长明显相关,但合理化程度下降;竞争优势行业和主导产业均呈向资本技术密集型行业演化趋势,但主导产业的支撑作用有待增强;空间上呈现先集聚后扩散趋势,不同行业空间集聚程度各异,形成了沿东陇海工业集聚发展轴;工业专业化分工呈现以徐州为核心向外技术水平下降的圈层式垂直分工格局;工业高级化和区域工业占有率对经济增长促进作用显著,而对能源消耗和工业SO2排放抑制作用明显,但不同尺度区域影响存在差异。


    Using the Correlation index of industrial structure transformation, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of industrial structure as well as the effects changing on regional development are explored with the spatial analysis of GIS from year 2000 to 2012 in Xuzhou Metropolitan Area. The results show as follows: in the recent 10 years, the speed and optimization of industrial transformation showed an increasing trend which had a positive impact on economic growth, while the degree of industrial structure rationalization decreased. The capital and technology intensive industry gradually played a dominant role in the superiority industries and leading industries, and the supporting role of leading industries need to be enhanced. The spatial distribution of industry evolved from agglomeration to diffusion, forming the development center along the East Longhai. The degree of spatial agglomeration performed different among industrial departments. Industrial specialization showed an obvious difference. The technical level of Xuzhou was higher than the peripheral region which presented a circle layer pattern. The positive impact of industrial optimization and share on economic growth was significant. Furthermore, it considered that industrial optimization and share both contributed to the reduction of energy consumption and sulfur dioxide emissions. The impact on region of different scale was different.

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    贝叶斯框架的Copula季节水文干旱预报模型构建及应用
    张玉虎,向柳,孙庆,陈秋华
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (9): 1437-1444.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.09.017
    摘要   HTML   PDF (777KB)

    根据季节径流量相关特性,利用标准径流指数(SRI),通过优选Copula函数和径流量分布函数,构建贝叶斯框架的Copula季节水文干旱预报模型,并对阿克苏河西大桥水文站进行实证分析。结果表明: Gamma、Lognormal、Normal、Gumbel、Exponential 5种分布函数中,Gamma、Gumbel能较好拟合夏、秋季径流量; Gumbel-Hougaard、Clayton、Frank 3种Copula函数中,Clayton能较好联结夏、秋季径流量分布函数;构建模型预报表明,2001~2009年秋季发生干旱概率较低(24%~38%),以轻微、中度干旱为主,而2010年发生干旱的概率极高(95%),发生异常干旱的概率偏高(81%),与实际发生的干旱情况基本一致; 贝叶斯框架下构建的Copula模型能准确预报季节水文干旱发生,减少预报的不确定性,为特定区域干旱预报提供了一条新的途径。


    Forecasting of hydrological drought plays an important role in the decision-making process of water resources management. Bayesian networks provide an elegant tool to reflect the autocorrelation in the runoff record and develop the conditional probabilities, furnishing a framework for various types of probabilistic drought forecasting. This study presents a Bayesian probabilistic forecasting model based on best-fitted first-order copula functions. Standardized runoff index (SRI) is used to characterize the historical hydrological droughts and forecast probabilistic drought by season runoff correlations of a target season with the previous seasons in future. We used the Xidaqiao hydrological station in the Aksu River, sub-basin of the Trim River Basin of Xinjiang as a case, and apply the Bayesian probabilistic forecasting model to forecast the probability of autumn drought during the period 2000-2010 based on data from the previous summer, and testing the accuracy of the model. The results show that the probability of an autumn drought in the Aksu River Basin during 2001-2009 was low (24%-38%), with mainly abnormal and moderate droughts, whereas drought was very likely to occur in 2010 (95%), with the probability of occurrence of an exceptional drought being as high as 81%. The model is reliable and can forecast hydrological drought in the next season when current hydrological conditions are known. And the model can quantitatively express the uncertainty of hydrological drought and then improve its prediction accuracy. It does not require the linear assumption of normality and has a wide range of applications. The model provides an useful tool for uncertainty modeling through a probabilistic representation of model parameter uncertainty, developing conditional probabilities for given forecast variables, and returning the highest probable forecast along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. However, this study only selects the highest seasonal correlation as a condition, and further studies of hydrological drought forecasting are needed using high-dimensional copula functions. Furthermore, it’s a very urgent task to use more hydrological sites to forecast regional hydrological drought.

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