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  • 地理科学
      2016年, 第36卷, 第10期 刊出日期:2016-10-20 上一期    下一期
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    东北现象再解析和东北振兴预判研究——对影响国土空间开发保护格局变化稳定因素的初探
    樊杰,刘汉初,王亚飞,赵艳楠,陈东
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1445-1456.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.001
    摘要   HTML   PDF (804KB)

    从“东北现象”的新近表现,提出影响国土空间开发保护格局变化的3个稳定因素:资源环境承载能力、地缘关系、文化和体制机制。分别对3个稳定因素在东北地区的特征状况进行了解析,结果表明东北资源环境承载能力本底强,但开发利用效益不佳,突出表现在优化开发区和重点开发区面积过小、限制性开发区收益较低、资源环境承载力预警超载低;位于全球三大经济圈之一的东北亚核心区,地缘优势突出,但未能转换为经济优势,突出表现为外向型经济比重过小、对日韩贸易地位不凸显;文化和体制机制成为限制东北地区发展的核心障碍,突出表现在产业结构不合理、国有经济比重过高。以五大发展理念为指引,结合东北振兴的问题导向,着重对东北地区提高科技创新能力解决发展驱动力的转型、创新国有企业改革模式和促进多种所有制经济协调发展、围绕“一带一路”战略实现开放经济的转型以及腾出国内市场促进东北优势产业继续保持活力、以共享发展理念消除城市贫困增进东北地区民生福祉、采取经济社会生态效益相统一的原则实现东北地区按照主体功能定位进行发展等开展预判研究。


    From the recent “The Northeast China Phenomenon”, three stable factors have been put forward that influence the optimization of protection and development of territorial space: resources and environment carrying capacity, geopolitical relations, regional culture and mechanism. The analysis on the three stable factors in the Northeast China respectively shows that the background of resources and environment carrying capacity in Northeast China is strong, but the efficiency of development and utilization is poor. The distinct manifestations are that the area of optimized region and prioritized region is small, the efficiency of restricted zones is poor, and the overload early-warning of resources and environment carrying capacity is low. Northeast China is located in the core of the Northeast Asian region, one of three economic circles. Its geopolitical advantages are prominent, but it fails to convert economic advantages. The distinct manifestations are the proportion of export-oriented economy is too small, and without prominent position in the trades with Japan and Public of Korea. Regional culture and mechanism have become the core obstacles to the development of Northeast China. The distinct manifestations are irrational industrial structure, the high proportion of state-owned economy. Combing with the problems of Northeast China revitalization, this article takes “innovation, coordination, green, open and sharing” development concept as guidelines, and then prejudge some core problems in Northeast China. The suggestions are: 1) Improving technology innovation ability to solve transformation of development driving force; 2) Innovating the mode of the stated-owned enterprises reform and promoting coordinated development of various ownership economy; 3) Centering on strategy of “one belt one road initiative” to implement the open economy transformation and vacating domestic market to promote the advantage industry in Northeast China, and continuing to maintain the vigor; 4) Eliminating urban poverty and increasing people's livelihood in Northeast China based on sharing concept; 5) Adopting the principle of the unity of economic, social and ecological balance to realize the main function in Northeast China.

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    1951~2010年中国年代际累积暴雨时空格局变化的相关因素研究
    史培军,孔锋
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1457-1465.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.002
    摘要   HTML   PDF (1665KB)

    采用多种统计方法,解释1951~2010年中国年代际累积暴雨不断增加的现象。结果表明:快速城镇化因素极有可能是中国大面积暴雨增加的主因。在时间序列上,城镇化因素对中国年际暴雨雨量、雨日和雨强的方差解释分别为61.54%,58.48%,65.54%;自然因子方差解释分别为24.30%,26.23%,21.92%。在空间格局上,中国县级总人口密度和低能见度日数年均值的面板数据与中国年代际累积暴雨雨量、雨日和雨强显著相关,其空间相关系数随年代推移而不断增加,进一步表明快速城镇化因素可能触发了中国年代际大面积暴雨的显著增加。


    Recent studies have noted a worldwide increase in the occurrence of extreme-precipitation events, this increase has been attributed to warming climate. Although other anthropogenic factors are recognized to be important, their relative contributions remain unclear. We use daily rainfall data from 659 meteorological stations in China, large scale climatic and anthropogenic indices to identify major causes of, and quantify their contribution to, a marked increase in heavy rainfall in 1951-2010. The decadal heavy rainfall amount (HRA), heavy rainfall days (HRD) and heavy rainfall intensity (HRI) increased by 58.6-68.7, 46.5-60.2 and 7.1-11.5 percent respectively. Our analysis suggests that although this trend could be explained by both large-scale climate phenomena, and local and regional anthropogenic activities, the latter such as urbanization, industrialization and associated air pollution have the strongest influence. Contributing roughly at the same magnitude, such factors explain 61.5, 58.5 and 65.5 percent of the variance in HRA, HRD and HRI, respectively, where as the large-scale climate phenomena explain only 24.3, 26.2 and 21.9 percent respectively. The expansion of spatial distribution of accumulated HRA and HRD over time shows a statistically significant and increasing correlation with the spatial distribution of population density and annual low-visibility days. Taken together, these results suggest that the substantial increase in heavy rainfall across large parts of China during the past six decades is very likely triggered by large scale and rapid urbanization, industrialization and associated air pollution. Previous studies linking urbanization to rainfall are mostly focusing on the impact on total rainfall and mostly considered only the local or city scale. Previous studies found urbanization as likely cause of increased heavy rainfall in India over five decades. Our results support this finding, but also show that urbanization is only one of the factors- industrialization and air pollution each contributes at equivalent magnitude. Our analysis is the first, to our knowledge, to establish urbanization, industrialization and air pollution as the primary cause of a nation- or sub-continental-scale increase in heavy rainfall over decades, and to quantify relative contributions of anthropogenic and climate factors. Our findings indicate that local anthropogenic processes may shift the regional climate beyond through GHG emissions. Such connections need to be better understood and reflected into the climate models. With cities in China increasingly experiencing extreme rainfall events, compounded by the increasing extreme summer heat in the same region, our findings call for a careful reevaluation of the risks of extreme weather in formulating national policies on urbanization, industrialization and environmental management in China in formulating. Rapidly growing and industrializing cities and nations will need to better control the air pollution, and to anticipate and accommodate these regional climate consequences, if they are to reduce the risk of flooding and waterlogging.

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    渐进制度变迁模式下中国城市转型测度的空间分异
    杨永春,宋美娜,史坤博,金淑婷,王梅梅,张伟芳
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1466-1473.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.003
    摘要   HTML   PDF (2146KB)

    以中国286个地级及以上行政单元为研究对象,基于2003~2013年的劳动力、企业等制度指标,采用空间插值等方法,探讨了中国城市制度转型水平及其效应机制。研究表明: 空间上,制度转型结果及其效应总体上在2003~2013年都表现为从东部沿海向内陆地区的梯度衰减模式。时间上,制度转型及其引发的效应整体上表现为逐步强化,其中,制度转型效应表现为由2003年的“零星分布”向2008年“线状蔓延”进而向2013年“面状拓展”的空间演化特征。 以城市群为核心的相关区域,其制度转型结果与效应大致呈现为圈层结构模式。中西部地区(除成渝城市群外)的制度转型结果及其效应高值中心大都为单个城市。制度转型对城市转型效应影响显著,且随着时间的推移明显增强。


    Since the implementation of China’s reform and opening-up policy, a hybrid institutional model has gradually evolved and been further refined to drive the country’s modernization and rejuvenation. At the same time, with the development of the model of gradual institutional changes, the city, along with contradictions among urban, resources, environment and economic development, has forced us to deepen institutional reform and transformation. And in the process of the rapid change and transformation of cities, the institution plays a quite important role in the development of urban transition, which often includes the indicators of labor, enterprise, foreign investment, etc. Based on these indicators, we build an index system which includes four dimensions, and undertake research on the results and effects of institution transformation. By the means of spatial interpolation, regression analysis and synthesis of spatial data and the date from 2003 to 2013, we conducted a comprehensive measure for the level of Chinese urban transformation under the influence of a gradual institution in the 286 prefectures of China. The results showed that: 1) From 2003 to 2013, the results and effects of institution transformation all decrease from the east coast to the inland areas in the space. In terms of time, the effects vary from scattered in 2003 to linear spread in 2008, and there is a tendency to become planar extension in 2013. 2) With urban agglomeration becoming the new regional unit participating in international competition and the division of labor, the institutional changes of its surrounding areas are typical representative. The institutional results and effects of its surrounding areas are significant and meet the Concentric Zone Theory, which present the law of diminishing circle from the center to the periphery. 3) The high centers are mostly single cities, especially the capital cities in the central and western regions, except Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration. And part of them have a relationship with large-scale development of natural resources. 4) The effects are largely correlated with the result of institution change and the correlation is becoming more and more significant with the passage of time.

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    中国区域信息空间和人口空间的耦合关联分析
    王宁宁,陈锐,赵宇,钟少颖
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1474-1484.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.004
    摘要   HTML   PDF (887KB)

    从流动空间角度出发,建立基于关系测度的空间耦合模型,采用复杂网络分析方法和灰色关联分析方法深入探讨区域信息空间和人口空间的耦合格局。研究发现信息空间和人口空间的耦合网络呈现“核心-边缘”模式,北京、上海、广东、天津、新疆和甘肃等耦合核心省市在整个省市内占据主导地位,是其他省市耦合发展所依附的核心。全国省市信息空间和人口空间耦合分布的总体布局呈现“川”型特征,分为高耦合协调型、中耦合磨合型以及低耦合发展型。信息空间和人口空间的耦合主要分为高耦合协调型、中耦合磨合型以及低耦合发展型3种,其中空间的高耦合程度一方面响应了国家加快推进互联互通建设的发展战略,另一方面也是京津冀一体化以及建设丝绸之路经济带的必然结果。


    In the context of informatization, the information system and the population system interact with each other, and the information elements and the demographic factors affect the regional development more and more deeply. Therefor the study on the coupling of information space and population space could provide the government departments with scientific decision for regional development layout. From the perspective of the flow space, a spatial coupling model based on relations measurement is established in this paper. What’s more, complex network analysis and gray correlation analysis are used to discuss the characteristics of the coupling and coupling pattern. The results show that the coupling network of the population space and information space presents "core - periphery" model. As central provinces, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, Xinjiang and Gansu provinces dominate in all provinces, which are attached cores of the other provinces. On the one hand, a coupling degree responses to the national strategy of interoperability, on the other hand it is the inevitable result of the integration of Beijing, Tianjin, and construction of the Silk Road economic belt. All the provinces are divided high coupling coordination group, running coupling group and low coupling development group.

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    竞争型公共设施区位决策——概念、选址原则及模型构建
    宋正娜
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1485-1494.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.005
    摘要   HTML   PDF (3693KB)

    竞争型公共设施竞争性、公益性并存,其区位决策相对更加复杂。首先提出了“竞争型公共设施”的概念,指出“兼顾效率与公平的空间均衡”是其选址的基本原则,并概括出具体选址要求:遵循供需双方的空间相互作用模式、限制至邻近设施的最大出行成本、追求总出行成本最小化、约束设施规模门槛、与低层级设施在出行成本上相区分等。其次构建了基于概率分配规则的重力P中值模型,通过纳入设施规模因子实现区位和规模同步求解,并对邻近设施最大出行成本和设施最小规模进行约束,以实现空间公平-效率、服务质量公平与规模效率等多重目标。最后经过实证检验,优化后的设施布局更为均衡合理。


    Competitive public facilities are both public-welfare and competitive, among them the comprehensive hospitals are most representative. Their location decision is relatively more complicated. This study aims to solve the problem that how to seek the optimal locations of such facilities. First of all, this study puts forward the concept of “competitive public facilities” which had been not defined systematically and normatively, pointed out that “the spatial equilibrium to coordinate the efficiency and equity” is the basic principle in location selection of competitive public facilities, and summarized a series of location requirements that they are to abide by the spatial interaction between the supply and demand, to limit the extreme travel cost from the settlement to the nearest facilities, to minimize the weighted total travel cost, to restrain the facility scale threshold, and to distinguish appropriately in spatial distribution between the higher level competitive public facilities and the ones. Secondly, gravity P median model was constructed with the probability distribution to replace the proximity rule by embedding the improved Huff probability model in the classic P median model. In such new model, the facility scale factor was introduced to solve facilities location and scale simultaneously, and then two factors were constrained that they are the biggest travel cost from some settlement to the corresponding nearest facility as well as the minimum facility scale. The objective function and a series of constraints just been mentioned can guarantee to realize the multiple targets including the spatial equity—efficiency, quality of service fairness and scale efficiency. Finally, the model was applied to the empirical test as to the comprehensive hospitals location decisions in Wuxi urban district, the results showed that: 1) The optimal facilities distribution is more balanced, and new hospitals locations form three layers that are the main core, secondary core and outer layers, which can comprise reasonable structure with more appropriate division, meanwhile the scale configuration of hospitals is in conformity with the population distribution on the whole. 2) The spatial equity of the optimal locations calculated with the new model shows bigger advantage, since a class of related indicators are improved that they are the Gini coefficient of available service resources quantity potentially for residents and other such indexes. 3) And at the same time, it is decreased properly that is the weighted average travel time from the settlements to all the hospitals, which can achieve the collaborative layout and spatial mismatch among the hospitals and the community health service organizations. In addition, it is important to note that this study focuses on the discussion of theory and approach, rather than the application with the intact model. Futhermore, when the new model is applied to the actual planning and location selection, concerned parameters and constraints should be adjusted appropriately by planning situation. All in all, the above study can support certain decision basis for future public facilities distribution adjustment or new town construction, meanwhile can enrich the concerned research about public facilities location allocation both here and abroad.

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    河南省基本公共服务质量空间格局与空间效应研究
    赵林,张宇硕,焦新颖,吴迪,吴殿廷
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1495-1504.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.006
    摘要   HTML   PDF (1352KB)

    构建基本公共服务质量评价指标体系,对河南省基本公共服务水平和空间格局特征进行了分析,最后采用空间杜宾模型研究了基本公共服务的空间溢出效应与影响因素。研究发现: 2005~2014年河南省各市基本公共服务水平呈不同程度的上升趋势,但整体水平不高;空间格局上呈自西北向东南衰减的半环带圈层结构。基本公共服务在市际尺度上具有显著的全局与局部自相关特征,随时间呈现集聚-分散-集聚的演变模式;高高集聚与低低集聚的空间俱乐部趋同特征明显。 空间杜宾模型检验表明基本公共服务空间上存在溢出效应;城镇化水平、地方政府财政支出能力、地方经济发展活力对基本公共服务具有正向促进作用。


    Basic public service is the foundation of maintaining social fairness and justice. It is of significance to build a comprehensively well-off society by establishing and perfecting the basic public service system and promoting the equal basic public service. By establishing the evaluation system of basic public service, this article evaluated the level of basic public service in Henan Province, then analyzed the spatial pattern of basic public service quality by using the spatial autocorrelation method, and finally studied the spatial spillover effects and the influence factors of basic public service by using Spatial Durbin Model. The results show that, 1) The level of basic public service quality in cities of Henan Province shows the different rising trend during 2005-2013, but the overall level remains to be improved. The relative difference among cities shows the trend of shrinking. The low level area shows obvious “catch-up effect” to high level area. 2) The spatial pattern of basic public service shows the structure of half band characteristics and the level of basic public service decreases from northwest to southeast. From the global trend, the basic public service level in west area is higher than the east area, the north area is superior to the south area and the latitudinal direction difference is less than the east-west differences. Compared with sub-region in Henan Province, the level of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration is the highest, the level of the western and southwest region and the northern region is the higher, and the level of Huanghuai region is the lowest. 3) The global Moran’s index during 2005-2013 is positive. The spatial pattern of basic public service shows the positive spatial correlation. The various types of basic public service show the spatial evolution mode of agglomeration-dispersion-agglomeration. The local auto-correlation results show that the spatial club convergence characteristics of High-High and Low-Low agglomeration is obvious. The distribution and amount of various agglomeration types remain stable. 4) The spatial Durbin Model test shows that there exists spatial spillover effects of basic public service among cities in Henan Province. The level of regional basic public service is not only influenced by the region itself factors, also affected by the basic public service level of adjacent areas. The regression results show that the urbanization level, local financial expenditure and regional economic vitality have a positive influence on the basic public service.

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    基于聚落演变的岩溶山地聚落体系空间结构整合——以后寨河地区为例
    李阳兵,李潇然,张恒,邱从毫,罗光杰,白晓永
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1505-1513.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.007
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    基于高精度遥感影像和实地调查数据,选择黔中高原的典型岩溶山地普定县后寨河流域,探讨了1963~2010年岩溶山地的聚落和人口变迁,建立了基于聚落规模等级发展变迁和人口密度空间分布的乡村聚落发展适宜性和聚落整治类型评价方法。研究区大聚落和较大聚落主要分布在耕地条件和交通条件较好的中部峰丛洼地区东、西两侧,人口密度高值中心对应的往往是大聚落等级。研究区聚落可划分为重点村镇型、优先发展型、有条件扩展型、限制扩展型和迁弃型5类。


    Investigating the reconstruction and integration method of the karst mountain settlement spatial structure has important practical significance, as it promotes the trend of intensification development of rural residential land and the construction of new socialist countryside. The Houzhaihe area which is a typical karst mountain located in the Puding County of the Guizhou Plateau was selected as study area in this study. Having adopted high resolution remote sensing images and field investigation data, this article probed into the population change in karst mountain settlements in 1963-2010. The rural settlements development suitability evaluation method and settlement control type were developed based on the settlement scale development and the population density spatial distribution of the study area. Large settlement and larger settlement were mainly distributed in both sides of the east and west of the central peak-cluster depression area which with better land conditions and traffic conditions in the study area. The high value center of population density is of the corresponding level tend to be large settlements which are apart from each other. The settlements in the study area can be divided into 5 classes, namely, key villages and towns, prior development, conditional priority to expand, restricted extension type and abandoning type. The results in this study may serve as cases of the karst mountain settlement space reconstruction and integration.

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    基于BP模型和Ward法的北京市平谷区乡村地域功能评价与分区
    唐林楠,刘玉,潘瑜春,任艳敏
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1514-1521.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.008
    摘要   HTML   PDF (5026KB)

    构建乡村地域功能评价指标体系,借助BP神经网络模型揭示平谷区“生产-生活-生态”功能分异特征;运用Ward法划分功能区,服务于平谷区乡村转型发展和功能区布局。结果表明: 在多项功能综合作用下,平谷区基本形成了“平原地区生产功能较强、镇中心及周边村域生活功能明显、山地区以生态功能为主”的功能分布格局。 基于评价结果和空间属性,平谷区划分为西部平原生产区、东部山地生态生产区、中部平原城市生活区、中部近郊平原生活区、东部丘陵生态生活区和北部山地生态区。其中,西部平原生产区、中部平原城市生活区、北部山地生态区是平谷三生空间功能发展的优势区域,分布相对集中。按照“强功能重优化、中等功能重提升、弱功能重改善”的原则提升乡村地域功能,促进地区均衡发展。


    This research considering the 297 villages of Pinggu as the basic unit, comprehensively evaluates the rural regional functions such as agricultural production function, industrial production function, living function and ecological regulation function by BP model, and then sorts these villages into 6 different function zoning areas based on the BP evaluation results and regional spatial properties by Ward method. The results show that: 1) The villages whose agricultural production function develop better also develop well in ecological regulation function. Influenced by location, the villages with higher index of industrial production function mainly distribute in the central area of the town and its surrounding region, so do those with higher index of living function. Under effects of various functions, the rural regional multifunction develops such a pattern that agricultural production function is stronger in plain area, life function domains in the center or surrounding villages, and ecological function develop fast in the mountain region. And it indicates BP model is suitable to assess rural regional functions. 2) All the villages of Pinggu district can be divided into six regions, which are eastern plain production area, eastern hilly ecological production area, the central urban plain living area, suburban central plain living area, and eastern ecological and living area, north mountain ecological area by Ward method. And the western plain production area, the central urban plain living area, northern mountainous ecological regions develop better in Pinggu and distribute relatively concentrated. In the future, we advise Pinggu should promote its rural multifunction according to such a guide-strong function optimization, and the weak function improvement, medium function ascension work to make all villages develop in order.

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    基于环境因素约束的农户土地利用效率及影响因素分析 ——以河南省粮食生产核心区为例
    梁流涛,翟彬,樊鹏飞
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1522-1530.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.009
    摘要   HTML   PDF (504KB)

    在农户土地利用引起的环境问题日益严重的背景下,如果农户土地利用效率的测度只考虑“好”产出,而忽略“非意欲”的环境产出,可能造成测度结果不准确。因此,将“非意欲”产出引入农户土地利用效率评价模型,利用河南省粮食生产核心区农户抽样调查数据测度环境因素约束下的农户土地利用效率,并探讨其效率状况及影响因素。主要的结论如下:调查区域环境因素约束下的农户土地利用效率平均值仅为0.612,效率值总体不高,有较大的提升空间。不同规模农户的土地利用效率差异较大,二者呈现“U型”变化趋势。环境因素约束下的农户土地利用效率的影响因素来自多个方面。其中,农户生计方式兼业化在一定程度上降低了环境约束下的农户土地利用效率;种植结构调整虽然能够增加农户农业收入,但不利于环境因素约束下的农户土地利用效率的提升;农地经营规模扩大对环境约束下的农户土地利用效率产生正面影响,但现实中普遍存在的小规模化经营和土地细碎化消减了正面影响。土地产权的稳定性能够提升环境约束下的农户土地利用效率,但无论是集体土地产权还是承包经营权以及农户间非正式的土地流转产权关系稳定性较差,不利于环境约束下的农户土地利用效率的提高。


    The problem of agricultural environment is closely related to the land use of the household, and it is derived from the household’s land use behavior. Under the background of the increasingly serious environmental problems caused by the household’s land use, the measure of household land use efficiency which only considering the ‘good’ output, but ignoring the ‘non-intended’ environmental output, may result in inaccurate measurement. Therefore, this article will introduce the ‘non-intended’ environmental output into the evaluation model of household land use efficiency, based on household survey data of the core area of ??food production in Henan Province, make use of directional distance function model to measure household land use efficiency which considering environmental factors, and lastly explored household land use efficiency condition and its influencing factors. The main findings are: 1)the average household land use efficiency which base on environmental factors of Henan Province was 0.612, indicating that in considering environmental factors, the actual output of household land use accounted for optimal output, compared with only 61.2%. More than half of households efficiency values are under 0.6. It can be seen that the efficiency of the value is not high, there is enormous room for growth. Household land use efficiency of different scale household are with great differences, they presenting ‘U-type’ trend. The number of households in the middle land scale is the largest, and the proportion is 44.15%, but the average value of the land use efficiency is the smallest, which shows the potential threat to the current land use and so on. 2) The empirical results show that affecting factors of household land use efficiency considering environmental factors are multifaceted, such as the farm household characteristics (age of household head, education and labor force), household livelihoods, planting structure, household production scale, the degree of fragmentation of agricultural commercialization. Among them, the household livelihoods of concurrent business can reduce the household land use efficiency in a certain extent. Although the adjustment of planting structure can increase the household’s agricultural income, but it is not conducive to the improvement of household land use efficiency which under the constraints of environmental factors. Expanding household agricultural land scale has a positive impact on household land use efficiency, but in reality small-scale land and fragmentation land are widespread exist,which reduced the positive impact. The stability of land property rights can improve household land use efficiency which under the environment factors, but whether the collective land property rights or the right of contract management, and the informal land transfer among the farmers,the property right relationship is poor, and this is not conducive to improve household land use efficiency which under the constraints of environmental factors.

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    梯度城镇化的村庄解析:以福建上杭为例
    龙茂乾,项冉,张践祚
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1531-1538.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.010
    摘要   HTML   PDF (498KB)

    引导农村人口有序地向城镇转移,实现大中小城市和小城镇协调发展,是当前中国经济社会面临的重大问题。归纳总结了农村人口迁徙目的地的4个层次,提出了梯度城镇化的概念,并以福建省上杭县村庄问卷为基础,进行梯度城镇化的村庄解析,辨识不同梯度人口迁徙的影响因素。研究发现:村庄人口规模对村庄人口流出具有阻止作用;县城和乡镇吸引农村人口迁入存在明显距离衰减。老年人比重高降低了年轻人迁徙到县城的成本,有利于农村人口的县城集聚。较高的少儿抚养比可能会抑制农村人口进入县城居住和拥有住房。教育驱动是县城城镇化的重要动力。高人力资本有流向地级市的趋势。


    In 2011, the proportion of China′s urban population exceeded 50%. In the past 30 years, urbanization has contributed enormously to economic growth and modernization in China. For China,the primary strategic task of economic and social development is to continue to increase the level of urbanization,and manage the orderly transfer of the rural population to the cities. The government announced that China′s future development roadmap is a ‘new type of urbanization’, which requires the coordinated development of cities and towns. This article generalizes four gradients of migration destination of rural population, and proposes the concept of ‘gradient urbanization’. Based on the 311 village questionnaires of Shanghang County in Fujian province, we identify the factors for different gradient migration. The result shows: 1) The size of village and population outflow are negatively correlated. A 1% increase in the population size of the village would cause a 0.4% decrease in the outflow proportion of the population. There is a significant distance attenuation in the migration from villages to the county. 2) Villages with high elderly dependency ratios are more likely to lose their villagers, as the aged lower the migration cost to the county for the young people. In contrast, the villages with high child-age dependency ratios are less likely to lose their villagers. 3) Education is an important driving force for urbanization. As educational resources gradually become concentrated in the county, an increasing number of young parents choose to move to the county, where their children can receive a better primary education. Furthermore, significant evidence has been found to show that the villagers with high human capital are more inclined to migrate to the prefecture-level city.

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    基于水环境约束分区的产业优化调整——以江苏省太湖流域为例
    杨清可,段学军,王磊
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1539-1545.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.011
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    基于水环境保护与区域开发的相互关系,考虑水陆空间联系及水环境承载能力对区域产业布局的限制,构建由水环境容量和压力两方面要素为基础的水环境约束分区指标体系。以产业集聚发达、水网密集但水环境敏感性强的江苏省太湖流域为例,探索小流域评价单元划分、约束指标选择与空间叠置分析等技术。对区域水环境容量和压力的进行约束分区,划分为高压低容、低压低容、高压高容和低压高容等4种类型区。研究结果为发挥区域水环境质量和经济可持续发展的协同效应,制定差别化的产业准入政策提供科学依据。


    Based on the interactions between water environment protection and regional development, the connection of water and the restriction of water environmental carrying capacity are comprehensively considered on the regional industrial layout. The constraint regionalization system of water environment is constructed, which is composed of water environment capacity and pressure. Due to industrial cluster and condensed water but strong sensitivity of water environment, Taihu Lake Basin in Jiangsu Province is taken as an example in order to explore the small watershed evaluation unit division, constraint index selection and spatial overlay analysis. The results show that: regional differences of water environmental carrying capacity in Taihu River Basin are enormous. The indexes decrease gradually from the northeast to the southwest along the Yangtze River. Due to good water accessibility and strong exchange capacity in the plain area, make water environmental carrying capacity higher. In the meantime, the influence of drinking water sources, water channel and important lake wetland protection zone causes water environment sensitivity stronger in Taihu Lake, Gehu Lake and southwest hilly region. As the corresponding, it is lower for water environmental carrying capacityin the regions. As to the water environment pressure, region with the higher index is mainly distributed in the central city. The developed economy, dense population and high land development intensity make industrial COD emission intensity higher and water environment pressure stronger. Affected by the designated drinking water source protection areas, Taihu primary protection zone, hilly and mountainous areas of water conservation, regional economic development is limited and the index of water environment pressure is relatively lower. These areas are mainly distributed in the upstream of Changdang Lake, the surrounding of Gehu Lake, Yixing and Wuzhong. Through the comprehensive coordination of regional water environmental capacity and pressure, Taihu Lake Basin is divided into four types, namely, high-pressure and low-capacity area, low-pressure and low-capacity area, high-pressure and high-capacity area, and low-pressure and high-capacity area in the township (street) space scale. And then, the guidance scheme of industrial optimization adjustment is put forward, which can control the output of water pollutants from the source. The findings can provide scientific basis for synergistic effect between water environment quality and regional sustainable development and the policy formulation of differentiated industrial access policy. As a result, it will promote the harmonious development of industry development and water environment quality and realize the maximization of regional social economy and water environment.

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    商洛市水源涵养服务功能空间格局与影响因素
    陈姗姗,刘康,包玉斌,陈海
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1546-1554.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.012
    摘要   HTML   PDF (7033KB)

    以商洛市为例,利用InVEST产水量模型和多年平均涵养水量模型,以参数本地化、实地率定和结果验证,对该区水源涵养功能的空间格局分异规律及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明: 商洛市水源涵养总量为27.48×108m3/a,水源涵养能力为324.85 mm。五大流域水源涵养功能依次为旬河>乾佑河>金钱河>丹江>洛河。 气候因素对产水能力空间格局影响最大,10 a土地利用变化和下垫面植被、土壤因素则对水源涵养空间异质性影响显著。 子流域单元产水能力相关性强的因子为多年平均降水、实际蒸散发和植物可利用水,水源涵养功能关键驱动因子是潜在蒸散量、土壤饱和导水率与森林覆盖率。


    As a major water source region of the of South to North Water Diversion Project, Shangluo City was selected as a case study. Water yield sub-model of the InVEST Model and Water Retention Model were used to reveal the spatial heterogeneity and influencing factor of the service of water retention. Through the process of in-situ acquisition, the field calibration and model verification, several conclusions were drawn as the following: 1) The gross amount of water conservation was 2.748×109m3/a, and the capacity of water conservation was 324.85 mm in Shangluo City. The order of the capacity of water conservation of five watersheds was the Xunhe River, the Qianyou River, the Jinqian River, theDanhe River and the Luohe River. 2) Climate factors had the greatest effect on the spatialpattern of water yield capacity, and the land use change in recent 10 years and vegetationand soil properties in different underlying surface impacted significantly on the spatial heterogeneity of water conservation. 3) There was probably a stronger correlation among the space of water yield capacity and mean annual precipitation, actural vaporation, and the effect of plant available. The key driving factors of water conservation function was potentialevaporation, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and forest cover rate.

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    1960~2013年华北平原气候变化时空特征及其对太阳活动和大气环境变化的响应
    阿多,熊凯,赵文吉,宫兆宁,井然,张磊
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1555-1564.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.013
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    根据华北平原67个气象站点和14个辅助气象站点1960~2013年的日均温和日降水量数据,采用气候倾向率法、Mann-Kendall突变检测法和累积距平法等,对华北地区近54 a不同研究尺度下的气候变化趋势、突变情况以及其与太阳活动和大气环境变化的关系进行研究。结果表明:1960~2013年,华北平原年均温在11.86~14.33℃之间波动,整体呈现显著上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.23℃/10a。其中大气环境中浑浊度的升高,春季气温的抬升、是区域平均气温升高的诱因。气温的升高推动了>15℃等温线控制范围的扩张和年均温0℃等值线在华北平原的消失。华北平原年降水在617.96~1 060.30 mm之间波动,整体呈现显著减少趋势,气候倾向率为-1.75 mm/10,其中秋季降水量减少过快,400~600 mm降水等值线控制范围的扩大、600~800 mm和800~1 000 mm降水等值线的范围的缩小,共同造成区域降水量的减少。四季气候倾向率的特征变化敏感区域主要位于北纬35°~39°之间。1991~1994年为华北平原气候的突变时期,且这一突变受太阳活动的影响更多。太阳活动对最高气温的影响较大,浑浊度对最低气温的影响较大。大气环境因子中的日照百分比率、相对湿度、风速和浑浊度与气温整体变化平均相关系数为0.74。气候条件越好,气溶胶含量越低,太阳辐射与年均温的相关系数越高。气溶胶含量越高,浑浊度因子与年均温的相关系数也越高。人类活动导致的气溶胶含量的增加,是该区域气温升高的主要外因。


    North China plain is a geographically significant part of China. The climate change, which created the unique climate pattern and characteristics, has a non-negligible impact on the eco-system of the countryin this area. Based on historical data (1960-2013) on daily temperature and precipitation obtained from 82 meteorological stations, together with solar activity and atmosphere environment data scattered in North China plain, this paper makes a comprehensive investigation of the patterns and features of the climate using climate tendency method, Mann-Kendall test method and cumulative anomaly method. The results reveal that the annual mean temperature varied between 11.86℃ and 14.33℃, and the temperature increased slightly with the rate of 0.23°C/10a, (P< 0.01). This ascend may be due to the rise of turbidity in the atmosphere environment, the disappearance of the 0°C isotherm, the rise of spring temperatures , and the increase of the isotherm (>15°C) area. At the same time, precipitation varied between 617.96-1060.30 mm, decreased significantly with the rate of -1.75 mm/10a,(P>0.05). The expanding of the 400-600 mm precipitation contour area, the narrowing of ranges of 600-800 mm and 800-1000 mm, and excessive reduction of autumn precipitation indicates less precipitation. And all precipitation contours showed a northward movement. The sensitive areas of characteristic climatic change were mainly located between the latitudes 35°-39°. The climate mutation, occurred during 1991-1994, has been proved have more relationship with the solar activity. The influence of solar activity on maximum temperature was bigger, and the influence of turbidity on minimum temperature was more significant. Atmosphere environmental factors of the sunshine percentage, relative humidity, and wind speed had the high correlation with the temperature change,which the average correlation coefficient was 0.74. The better climatic condition, the lower content of aerosol, and the correlation coefficient of solar radiation and annual average temperature was higher. The correlation coefficient of turbidity and annual average temperature was higher when the content of aerosol is higher. The increase of the content of aerosol caused by human activity is the main external cause to the rise of the area temperature.

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    土壤水盐运移模型研究进展及展望
    解雪峰,濮励杰,朱明,许艳,王小涵,徐彩瑶
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1565-1572.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.014
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    回顾了国内外土壤水盐运移模型的发展历程,根据土壤水盐运移模型构成的原理和发展趋势,将土壤水盐运移模型分为水盐平衡模型、物理模型和系统模型。借助国内外文献对已有模型的原理和应用进行了介绍,并对存在的问题进行了分析;展望了新形势下土壤水盐运移模型的未来发展趋势和研究重点,旨在为今后土壤水盐运移模型研究提供新的思路。


    The mechanism of soil water and salt movement research is one of the core issues in soil salinization research. The study of modeling in soil water-salt transport is of great significance for find out the soil water and salt movement law. This article reviews the achievements of soil water-salt transport model, divided the soil water-salt transport model into water-salt balance models, physical models and system models in accordance with the principles and trends of water-salt transport in different soils. Introduced the theories and applications of existing models by means of literature at domestic and foreign, then analyzed the problems of existing models and prospected the future trends of soil water-salt transport model in the new situation and priorities for future research. Integrated modelling of soil water-salt transport, field and regional scalemodel for simulating soil water-salt transport, and water-salt transport model coupled with crop growth model are considered to be the key point of the research on water-salt transport model in the future. This article aims to provide new ideas for the study of soil water-salt transport model in the future.

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    ENSO对韶关市1951~2013年降雨侵蚀力影响研究
    陈世发
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1573-1580.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.015
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    选取1951~2013年韶关市分月降雨量数据,采用月降雨侵蚀力模型计算降雨侵蚀力,分析ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)对韶关市降雨侵蚀力的影响。研究表明: 韶关市降雨侵蚀力年际变化和年内变化较大,总体呈现波动上升趋势;降雨侵蚀力与赤道太平洋SST距平值呈现极显著相关,降雨侵蚀力随SST距平值增加呈现先增加后递减的趋势。ENSO冷暖事件发生时降雨侵蚀力较小,在其它土壤侵蚀因素不变的条件下,此时期的土壤侵蚀相对较轻;降雨侵蚀力与SOI存在显著相关,降雨侵蚀力随着SOI增加而减小; 降雨侵蚀力与MEI呈现极显著的正相关关系。


    Soil erosion is one of the world’s three major environmental problems and is the primary cause of land degradation. Its origin is related to a series of natural factors including rainfall, topography, soil and vegetation properties, and inharmonious human activities that aggravate soil erosion. The rainfall is one of the main powers that lead to soil erosion. Rainfall erosivity is the tendency of rainfall to erode the soil, long time sequence rainfall erosivity is influenced by large scale circulation situation. Rainfall erosivity is highly dependent on rainfall, which is closely related to the ENSO (El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation) indices. Pearson’s correlation coefficient can be used to evaluate the validity of the relationship between the ENSO indices and annual rainfall erosivity. This article investigated the influence on rainfall erosivity in Shaoguan City of the El Ni?o SST (Sea Surface Temperatures) anomaly, the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) and the MEI (Multivariate El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation Index) as representations of ENSO phenomena. These index were selected because of three teleconnection patterns that are known to be important for rainfall erosivity. Through selects month rainfall as calculate rainfall erosivity during 1951-2013 and analyze that ENSO events influence rainfall erosivity in Shaoguan City. The results are indicated as follows: 1) The rainfall erosivity show upward trend and evident seasonal variation and great variation between years. At the same time, the 5 a moving average curve of rainfall erosivity indicates that the general trend is an increase accompanied by fluctuations; 2) Correlation analyses were applied to rainfall erosivity and SST anomalies. The effects of the SST anomalies on rainfall erosivity are highly evident. The rainfall erosivity showed that increased at first and decreases afterwards with the increase of the SST anomalies, and low rainfall erosivity during cold events and slightly high rainfall erosivity during warm events. When other factors that affect soil erosion were fixed, soil erosion was slightly serious during El Ni?o, whereas it was light during La Ni?a; 3) The influence of the SOI on rainfall erosivity was shown by a significant correlation, the rainfall erosivity showed decreases with the increase of the SOI; 4) The MEI explains the effects of the ENSO on Shaoguan rainfall erosivity better than did the other indices assessed in this study. Empirical evidence has shown positive correlation between rainfall erosivity and MEI. Obviously, the MEI includes six variables rather than one variable (SOI and SST), providing a better indicator for representing the state of the ENSO. Through analysis of the effects of the ENSO events on rainfall erosivity in Shaoguan city, these findings can provide a theoretical basis for the comprehensive treatment and prevention of soil erosion, and it has significant importance for the monitoring, evaluation, prediction and treatment of soil erosion.

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    静止气象卫星资料在白天海雾动态监测中的应用
    邓玉娇,田永杰,王捷纯
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1581-1587.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.016
    摘要   HTML   PDF (1074KB)

    利用国产静止气象卫星FY2E数据建立白天海雾监测算法,利用VIS通道反射率实现海面与云雾区分离,利用IR1通道估算云高实现中高云与低层云雾的分离,利用VIS、IR1、IR4波段构建雾判识指数初步实现海雾与低云的分离,利用平滑稳定度指数进一步实现海雾与低云的分离,最终得到的海雾监测小时产品。根据2014年1~5月份广东沿海13个海雾监站点的实测数据,对本算法所得海雾产品进行精度检验,计算得到检测率POD为92.7%,检率FAR为29.4%,总体精度为64.7%。个例分析可知,静止卫星资料因其具备较高的时间分辨率,可较好实现对海雾过程的连续、动态监测。


    Using Channel VIS, IR1 and IR4 of the domestic geostationary meteorological satellite FY2E/VISSR data, the multichannel method was proposed to detect the daytime sea fog. Firstly, the existing dynamic threshold method was revised in the paper in order to improve the accuracy of distinguishing sea surface from cloud and fog. The thresholds were based on the histogram statistics of the reflectance of Channel VIS, and adjusted dynamically in different regions or different seasons. Secondly, cloud height estimated from the bright temperature of Channel IR1 was used to separate middle- and high-level cloud from low-level cloud and fog. When the height was greater than 2 000 m, the object was middle- and high-level cloud. Thirdly, fog index computed from Channel IR1,IR4 and VIS was used to divide low-level cloud from fog preliminarily. If the fog index was greater than 20, the object was possibly fog. Finally, smoothness and stability index were used to tell fog from low-level cloud further, and it was greater than 0.9 for fog. Ground-based fog observation data from thirteen sites on the coast of Guangdong were used to do the verification of the FY-2E fog detection products, which were Zhanjiang, Wuchuan, Leizhou, Yangjiang, Shangchuandao, Zhuhai, Doumen, Shanwei, Lufeng, Shantou, Nan’ao, Chaoyang and Chenghai. The statistical calculation showed that the probabilities of detection(POD) was 92.7%, the false alarm ratios(FAR)was 29.4%, and the critical success index(CSI) was 64.7%. The FAR was a little high mainly because of two reasons: on one hand, the FY2E data didn’t have the penetrability for clouds, so fog covered by clouds would be misjudged to clouds; on the other hand, the recognition capability of FY-2E data with a spatial resolution of 5 km was limited so that some fog pixels couldn’t be distinguished correctly. Both of them were decided by the remote sensor of FY-2E, not decided by the fog detection algorithm. Nonetheless, the fog detection method was generally efficient and feasible. In the case study of the fog occurred on February 26, 2014, the remote sensing products showed the dynamic change of fog every hour from 9:00 AM to 16:00 PM. The sea fog almost kept unchanged between 9:00 AM and 13:00 PM, and the fog edge dissolved slowly on the junction of Bohai Gulf and the Yellow Sea between 14:00 PM and 16:00 PM. It was seen that the high time resolution data of geostationary satellite data were more effective in continuous and dynamic detection of sea fog than other satellite data.

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    泥石流沟道汇流对堆积危险范围影响的数值模拟研究
    叶健,陈锦雄,陈晓清,朱军,徐柱
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1588-1594.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.017
    摘要   HTML   PDF (1954KB)

    利用离散元法和图形处理器(GPU)并行计算手段建立泥石流运动堆积模型,以自然界沟道泥石流汇流后运动堆积特征及危险范围作为模拟参照,利用所构建的泥石流流通槽完成沟道泥石流不同交汇角汇流模拟试验和堆积危险范围预测,实现了泥石流沟道汇流的可视化模拟和数值模拟。试验结果表明,可视化模拟能够模拟出自然界中泥石流自流通区运动汇流后产生堆积的运动特征;数值模拟实现了锐角条件下仅考虑单因素即沟道交汇角对泥石流堆积危险范围影响的模拟试验。此外,利用GPU并行计算的优势可用于模拟大规模泥石流汇流现象,模型的可扩展性为泥石流汇流堆积危险范围分析向更为复杂的地理环境模拟奠定基础。


    Featured with suddenness and rapid expansion, the confluence of gully debris flow in the nature can cause huge economic loss to the residents along the accumulation areas. Therefore, it is necessary and urgent to predict the hazardous range for the confluence of gully debris flow. Through utilizing discrete element method and GPU parallel computing approaches, this paper establishes debris-flow deposit model. By taking the debris-flow deposit characteristics after the confluence of gully debris flow in the nature and simplifying the interaction between debris-flow gully, this article completes numerical simulation of debris-flow confluence with different confluent angles and the prediction of deposit hazardous areas. The experiment results indicate that numerical simulation of debris-flow confluence can not only simulate the characteristics of deposit produced by the confluence from circulation areas of debris flow in the nature, but also simulate the reasonable hazardous range for the debris-flow deposit under the action of pressure component and shear force component of different gully confluence angles. In addition, the advantages of GPU parallel computing can be used to simulate the large-scale debris flow confluence phenomena, and the expandability of this model lays simulation basis for analyzing the hazardous range for the confluence accumulation of debris flow in a more complicated geographical environment.

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    钻孔及现代河流重矿物特征揭示的更新世以来酒东盆地水系演化历史
    张建,胡小飞,耿豪鹏,陈殿宝,潘保田
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (10): 1595-1604.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.018
    摘要   HTML   PDF (2981KB)

    对黑河中游酒东盆地大洼井(DWJ)和新开九队(XKJD)两个钻孔以及现代黑河干流和支流进行重矿物采集与分析。分析结果发现:DWJ钻孔下部(140~69.7 m)沉积物重矿物特征同摆浪河与马营河的相似性较高;DWJ钻孔上部(69.7~0 m)和XKJD钻孔(65.6~0 m)的沉积物重矿物特征与现代黑河干流、梨园河和山丹河两个支流比较吻合。重矿物组合特征的变化指示了沉积物的源区发生明显变化。DWJ钻孔上部与下部的岩性和沉积相均发生明显变化,重矿物组合特征所反映的源区变化指示了黑河中游水系发生重要调整。对比钻孔岩芯和走廊区第四系岩相剖面特征,推测此次黑河中游沉积环境与水系格局发生变化的时间大致为早-中更新世之交。


    The northern Qilian Mountains have been experiencing intense tectonic uplift and denudation since the late Cenozoic, which resulted in an exceptionally thick sediment building up in the Hexi Corridor. The mineral characteristics of these deposits preserved substantial information about the mountain uplift and drainage evolution. Heavy minerals are the stable components in the sedimentary cycle; its characteristics and assemblages are useful tools to acquire the sediment provenance information, by inference, drainage pattern evolution. With the purpose of deciphering the drainage evolution history in Jiudong Basin, we collected heavy mineral samples from two cores (DWJ and XKJD) and modern fluvial samples in Jiudong Basin. We find that: 1) The heavy mineral characteristics in the lower part of DWJ Core (140-69.7 m) are similar to those in the two tributaries, Bailang River and Maying River; 2) The heavy mineral characteristics in the upper part of DWJ Core (69.7-0 m) and the XKJD Core (65.6-0 m) are similar to those in the trunk Heihe River as well as two tributaries, Liyuan River and Shandan River. The concentration of heavy mineral grains in sand-sized terrigenous sediments may fluctuate considerably because of several factors, mainly the sedimentary processes and post-depositional dissolution. To eliminate the effects of these fators on heavy mineral assemblages as much as possible,we analyize the samples with same grain size (63-125 um), which means they represent similiar hydrodynamic condition. The presence of abundant less resistant minerals (e.g. amphiboles, epidotes) in cores indicates that chemical weathering is negligible and most unstable grains are preserved. Given the significant changes of both lithology and sedimentary facies around 70 m in DWJ Core, the change of heavy assemblages in cores could be attributed to the drainage reorganization of midstream of Heihe River. By comparing sedimentary features from DWJ Core with previous studies in the Hexi Corridor, we speculated that this drainage evolution and subsequent sedimentary environment change occurred between early and middle Pleistocene. This drainage reorganization of Heihe River in the Hexi Corridor happened during the Kunlun-Huanghe Movement, which allow us to attribute there organization to the tectonic movement surrounding this areas. As a whole, the paleodrainage evolution of the Jiudong Basin since the Pleistocene may be summarized as follows: during the Middle Pleistocene, Jiudong Basin were mainly sourced from Maying River and Bailang River, while the Heihe River flowed to the Minle Basin. At the end of the middle Pleistocene, the tectonic uplift of the Qilian Mountain caused a progressive reorganization of the drainage pattern of the Jiudong Basin. The provenance of the upper part of DWJ Core (69.7-0 m) and the XKJD Core (65.6-0 m) samples from trunk Heihe River indicates the northwestward shifting of Heihe River to its present-day position in the Jiudong Basin.

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