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  • 地理科学
      2017年, 第37卷, 第9期 刊出日期:2017-09-20 上一期    下一期
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    劳动力成本上升与中国制造业空间转移
    李伟,贺灿飞
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1289-1299.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.001
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (639KB)

    采用中国规模以上工业企业数据,建立面板数据回归模型,研究了劳动力成本上升对制造业空间转移的影响,主要有以下研究结论: 劳动力成本提升已成为推动中国制造业空间转移的重要影响因素。2004年以前发达地区相对较高的工资水平并未影响到产业集聚,但是2004年以后较高的工资水平开始推动制造业企业向工资水平较低的地区迁移,但出口型企业与满足国内市场需求的制造业企业体现出了不同的转移路线。 2004年以前中国制造业总体上不断向长三角、珠三角以及山东半岛等地区集中,2004年以后制造业开始向沿海相对较为落后的江苏北部、山东中西部以及中国中西部地区迁移,满足国内市场需求的制造业企业是向中西部地区迁移的主体,出口型企业由长三角和珠三角向东部地区的山东半岛和辽东半岛等交通条件较好的地区迁移。 东部地区产业升级缓慢。尽管产业向外转移,但东部沿海地区的产业尤其是满足国内市场需求的制造业企业仍然以劳动力驱动为主,资本驱动的特征并不明显。但出口型企业的发展率先表现出了资本驱动的特征。


    The spatial evolution of manufacturing is one of the focuses of economic geographers. Using Chinese industrial enterprises data and panel data regression model, this article investigates the effect of labor market transition on the spatial transfer of Chinese manufacturing. The main conclusions are as follows: firstly, the rising labor cost has becoming a key factor that has an influence on the spatial transfer of Chinese manufacturing. The industrial agglomeration in developed area was not affected by the relatively high labor costs before 2004, but after 2004, the rising labor cost in developed area drove enterprises, no matter export-oriented enterprises or enterprises that served domestic marked, to migrate to relatively less developed areas with relatively low labor costs. Secondly, the flying geese pattern has occurred in China. Before 2004, China's manufacturing continuously agglomerated to the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Shandong Peninsula and other areas. However, after 2004, the manufacturing enterprises began to migrate to less developed area, such as the northern Jiangsu, the middle and western Shandong and the middle and western regions in China. Enterprises that met the domestic market mainly migrated to the central and western China, while export-oriented enterprises mainly migrated from the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta to Shandong Peninsula, Liaodong Peninsula and other areas with convenient transportation. Lastly, the eastern area showed little tendency of industrial upgrading. The development of enterprises, especially enterprises that met domestic market was still labor cost-driven. However, the development of exported-oriented enterprises showed a tendency of capital-driven.

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    世界跨国投资网络结构演化及复杂性研究
    杨文龙,杜德斌,游小珺,史文天,颜子明
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1300-1309.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.002
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (659KB)

    基于复杂网络方法,运用GIS、Pajek、Matlab和数据库等技术手段,构建世界跨国投资网络,考察2001~2012年世界跨国投资网络结构及其复杂性的时序演化过程。根据研究可以得出以下主要结论:世界跨国投资网络整体遵循“核心-边缘”的圈层结构,结构内部不断变化和重组,呈现由双核主导向多核互联演变,形成资本从西欧、北美、东亚向北欧、南美、西亚、东南亚流动的格局;世界投资网络具有显著小世界性质和无标度特征,无标度特征伴随时间的推移趋于弱化;投资活动活跃的国家,对跨国投资网络拥有更强的控制力,但对强化投资的可达性作用不显著,其主要受市场等潜在因素的影响;跨国投资结构的复杂性由高到低依次为中枢型投资地、区域型投资地、一般型投资地、孤立型投资地,不同功能类型的空间分布具有显著的集聚性。


    Using complex network analysis, this study applied GIS, Pajek, Matlab and database, etc., to build the global transnational investment relationship network, and analyzed the temporal evolution of the spatial structure and network complexity of the global transnational investment network from 2001 to 2012. The results shows: 1) The global transnational investment network is showing a “core-edge” ring structure, whose inner structure is changing and reorganizing. The investment network transformed from dual-core (North America and Western Europe) structure into overlapped and related multi-core (North America, Western Europe, the Caribbean, Eastern Asia and Australia) topological structure, with capital gradually flowing from Western Europe, North America, and Eastern Asia to Northern Europe, South America, West Asia and Southeastern Asia in the macroscopic view. 2) The small-world characteristic of the investment network is prominent. The network is scale-free and shows a decrease overtime. 3) The countries that are active in the investment have higher control of the transnational investment network. The confounding factors influence the spatial reachability of the transnational investment. 4) Ranked by the complexity (dissimilarity) of the transnational investment structure, the result from high to low is terminal invest countries, regional invest countries, normal invest countries and isolated investment countries. Countries with different functional types have a clear trend of clustering.

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    基于大数据的城市服务业空间关联分析
    廖伟华,聂鑫
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1310-1317.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.003
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (512KB)

    信息技术与电商平台的发展,产生了各种各样的大数据。在城市服务业中,商家在电商平台上注册自己带有坐标的信息,构成了空间服务业的空间大数据源。首先建立限定距离阈值的空间关联规则数据模型,介绍该模型产生频繁项集和关联规则的方法与步骤。最后利用Python爬取糯米网南宁站的商家信息,用Apriori算法做出了10~1 000 m 6种距离阈值的空间关联规则和服务业空间频繁项集。


    With the development of information technology, big data has become a research focus of all sectors. There is an increasing demand for big data in the urban planning management process. Big data acquisition and calculation is a key technology in the process of the smart city construction. This article covers the following major aspects: 1) Distance table linking to urban service physical store table is used to establish spatial association frequent rules model based on the concept of spatial neighbouring point and the property of spatial point entity; the article also introduces the method and procedure of how spatial frequent items and spatial association rules appear in urban service spatial association model; 2) “For xml path” technology is used in SQL Server to build spatial transaction database because transaction database is needed in association rules computing; 3) Python+sqlite3+lxml+BeautifulSoup technology is used to crawl the online data of the companies in Nanning which have all of their public information registered on “Baidu Nuomi” (https://nn.nuomi.com/); 4) Apriori algorithm is applied to analyze spatial frequent items and spatial association rules in urban service industry of 6 distance thresholds between 10 to 1 000 meters with the obtained data. In case study, the top six registered businesses in “Baidu Nuomi” are snacks and fast food, beauty, hotels, bakeries, sweets and drinks, budget hotels. The spatial association rule of {budget hotels, hotels} has a high degree of confidence and a high upgrading degree in the distance threshold of 10 m and 50 m, being a set of strong spatial association rules. This illustrates the Nanning hotel industry has the characteristics of a compact layout, with all kinds of hotels being together. The spatial association rule of {sweet drinks, snacks and fast food} is a set of strong spatial association rules in the distance threshold of 50 m, 500 m and 1 000 m. Snacks and fast food frequency is very high, especially in the succeeding rules with high support degree. In different distance thresholds, as a kind of mass consumer entity service, snacks and fast food restaurants are distributed around various industries. Because the lift degree of these rules is about 1, the snacks and fast food industry has the characteristics of no connection with other industries. This study is an attempt to use ubiquitous web data around us to analyze city management. Researchers can get a steady flow of big data so as to better carry out the studies on city big data in real time with this methods and thoughts.

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    城市建成环境对居住安全感的影响——基于全国278个城市社区的实证分析
    张延吉,秦波,唐杰
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1318-1325.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.004
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (367KB)

    利用CGSS、POI、道路网等数据,通过多层线性模型分析中国城市建成环境对居住安全感的影响。总体来看,混合型、密路网、紧凑型的建成环境对个体的居住安全感具有显著的负向影响。而“街道眼”的保护机制并非是自动产生的,唯有在社区凝聚力较高、人口构成较为同质的社会环境下,传统城市空间形态才能起到增进居住安全感的作用。因此,不应把当前“窄马路、密路网、开放型”的规划转型仅仅视为一项空间设计工作,而须与社区发展相结合,以使“街道眼”的功效得以充分发挥。


    In the discipline of criminal geography, there always exists opposite theoretical views of the impact of urban built-up environment on sense of residential security. James Jocabs proposed the concept of ‘street eyes’ and appreciated its surveillance role in enhancing the sense of security, while the defensible space theory proposed by Newman regarded large flow of human traffic as public safety risk. This conflicting theoretical explanation incurred hesitation and confusion between aggregated design approach and segregated design approach. The different empirical findings and planning ideas stemmed from significant divergent built environment and social environment in various regions throughout the world. Owing to the existing research only carried out in European and American cities, it needs to be reexamined which theory has more explanatory power in Chinese context. Via Chinese General Social Survey data in the year of 2010, point of interest and road network data, this article analyzed the influence of urban built environment and its interaction role with social environment on sense of residential security in 278 Chinese urban communities through hierarchical linear modeling for the first time. This research demonstrated that mixed-used land measured by entropy index of POI functional types, compact road network measured by road density or proportion of secondary and slip road area, and high utilizing density measured by population density or POI density had a significant negative effect on sense of residential security overall. On the contrary, when built environment was relatively sparse, and had single land use and large block size, people would have a higher sense of security. It should be noted that the impact of urban built environment on sense of security is not invariable, and the ‘street eyes’ would not spontaneously play their defending roles until the community had strong cohesion, abundant social capital or homogenously composed. With the increase of community cohesion and population homogeneity, the positive role of "narrow road, dense network and open block" would gradually play on minimizing the resident’s sense of fear. However, according to the critical value in model, compact, permeable and diverse space still had negative effect on sense of security in most case communities in 2010. In other words, the theory of defense space is more applicable to most of sample communities in our country, and the function of street eyes is only played in a small number of sample communities with strong social cohesion and demographic homogeneity. To sum up, we should gradually and conditionally promote the planning work of "narrow road, dense network and open block", understand residents’ concerns about the sense of security, and avoid adopting a one-size-fits-all approach. Simultaneously, planners should combine the guiding ideology of urban design and the process of community development together in order to reach street eyes’ full potential and construct safe communities.

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    城市化进程中家屋空间重构的过程、内容与逻辑——以广州珠村为例
    丁传标,赵永琪,陶伟
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1326-1336.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.005
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (514KB)

    基于家的地理学视角,运用空间句法的基本理论与方法,把传统村落及家空间的重构现象放置在快速城市化进程中进行思考, 既重视文化的空间分析又强调空间的文化研究。在微观空间中,揭示了快速城市化进程中家空间物质形态变迁的文化观念表征和空间形态重构过程中的社会文化逻辑。主要结论如下:快速城市化进程中,个体家庭的响应遵循着不同的空间生产逻辑。家屋空间产生了家庭现代化、从家到户、家与房子的分离3种不同的重构模式。 在家屋物质空间重构过程中,家中人与自然的关系、祭祀空间、内外关系、家庭关系、代际关系、性别关系等均发生着重构。区位和大量外来人口是珠村家屋空间重构的外在动力;村民家庭的现代化诉求和家空间的经济需求是家屋空间重构的内在因素。城市化带来的新的社会经济关系是珠村家空间重构的内在逻辑。


    Traditional village as the material carrier of human culture heritage, facing space reconstruction and transformation of society in the process of rapid urbanization. Village traditional culture facing the realistic problem that lost its space carrier and space. As the basic unit of the village, home is the micro scale for geography to research the man-land relationship. Based on the geography of home, this article, which uses the basic theory and method of space syntax, locates the reconstruction of traditional villages and the home space in the context of repaid urbanization. It not only focuses on the spatial analysis of culture but also emphasizes the cultural studies of space. Following the insight into the micro space, this article reveals the cultural representation of material changes of the home space and the socio-cultural logic that hidden in the reconstruction process of space form. The findings of this article include: 1) In the process of rapid urbanization, the responses of individual families follow different logics of spatial production. Three different reconstruction patterns could be discovered in the process of the reconstruction of the home space, namely “family modernization”, “from home to household”, and “home is separated from the house”. 2) Accompanied with the reconstruction of home space, the relationship between human and nature, the sacrifice space, the internal and external relations, the kinship between family members, the intergenerational relationship, and the gender relationship have been reconstructed as well. 3) The location and the large number of immigrants are the main external driving forces while the modernization of the villagers' families and the economic needs of the home space are the internal driving forces. Both of them contribute to the reconstruction of home space in Zhucun Village. The new socio-culture relations brought by urbanization are the intrinsic logic of the reconstruction of the home space in Zhucun village. This research provide references and enlightenment for the new urbanization and the development of urban villages.

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    基于城市流空间的城市群变形结构识别——以长江三角洲城市群为例
    王钊,杨山,龚富华,刘帅宾
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1337-1344.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.006
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (466KB)

    全球化、信息化时代,城市群空间结构在城市流的作用下发生剧烈的变形。基于长三角城市流的测度和关系矩阵构建,通过流要素分析、多维尺度分析,从“节点-联系-格局”3个方面识别流空间下城市群变形结构。研究表明:流空间下城市中心性层级特征变化明显,中间层级的城市数量大幅增加;局域范围内城市流网络仍受地理空间距离的制约,但高等级城市流具有跨地理空间流动特征;中心城市和边缘城市呈“异化”发展趋势,表现为中心城市的集聚组团以及边缘城市的分散偏离。


    The expansion of informatization, networking and globalization makes internal communication of urban agglomeration increased sharply. Due to the powerful shaping strength of urban flows, spatial structure of urban agglomeration has suffered dramatic structure deformation. It is meaningful to identify and optimize the structure of urban agglomeration from the prospect of the urban flow. Based on economic-social data and road traffic data of the Yangtze River Delta in 2014, this article carries on a comprehensive measurement of urban flow in the Yangtze River Delta. From the prospects of “Node-contact-pattern”, we try to identify the deformation structure of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration with Multidimensional Scaling Analysis. The results indicate that: 1) At the node level, there is a significant hierarchy change of urban centricity in flow space. 67 cities are divided into four levels, the number of middle level city (including level I and level II) in flow space increased dramatically in contrast to traditional rank-size distribution. 2) The connections between nodes in local districtsare restricted to the law of geographic space distance, but high level flows exist between Nanjing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and some other cities, which characterized by the trans-regional intercourse feature and “7” glyph structure in space. 3) In terms of node spatial pattern identification, Multi-dimensional Scaling Analysis can make multidimensional connection matrixreduce to two-dimensional space matrix, the result is more objective and intuitive. Flow space structure pattern shows a dramatic deformation due to the core node “concentration” and the edgenode “discrete”. On one hand, cities such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Suzhou present a group concentration, which formed a “core area” characterized by large-scale, continuous urban space, and closely connection; On the other hand, cities in the north of the Yangtze River and south of Hangzhou bay show a scattered deviating trend from the “core area”. In order to improve the efficiency and integration level of the Yangtze River Delta, urban agglomeration, economic development and transport network construction of those structural deviation cities should be noticed by both state and local governments.

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    广东省残疾人生计资本的空间差异及影响因素研究
    吴清,吴黎,李细归,周雯
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1345-1353.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.007
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (532KB)

    运用改进的TOPSIS模型和GIS空间分析方法,对2015年广东省21个地市残疾人生计资本的空间分布特征及影响因素进行分析。结果表明:残疾人生计资本综合水平呈明显的“级差化”分异特征,高生计资本地市以广州、肇庆和清远3市为主,而低生计资本地市分布相对分散,总体表现出“大分散、小集中”的分布格局。残疾人不同类型生计资本水平空间差异显著,各类型资本大多处于较低等级,多种资本匹配性较低;社会和金融资本较高区主要分布在粤北地区,人力、康复和物质资本较高区均以广州最高;各类型资本以东部沿海城市及粤西云浮、茂名、阳江等地相对偏低。 残疾人生计资本总量具有显著的空间自相关性,热点区和冷点区分布差异明显,总体上表现出集聚分布特征。经分析,政策环境、经济水平、教育培训及康复服务等方面是影响广东省残疾人生计资本空间分布格局的重要因素。


    The improved TOPSIS Model and GIS Spatial Analysis Method are used to study the spatial difference characteristics and influencing factors of livelihood capital in 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong in 2015. Results show that: 1) The comprehensive level of livelihood capital of people with disabilities is obviously characterized with “level difference”. High-livelihood capital prefecture-level cities are represented by Guangzhou, Zhaoqing and Qingyuan while middle- and low-livelihood capital prefecture-level cities are distributed dispersedly, mainly in Shaoguan in the northern Guangdong, Yunfu and Yangjiang in the western Guangdong, Chaozhou, Jieyang and Shanwei in the eastern Guangdong. The overall distribution pattern is characterized by “large disperse and small cluster”. 2) Obvious differences are shown in different types of livelihood capital levels of people with disabilities. Regions with higher financial and social capital level are mainly distributed in the northern Guangdong. Labor, rehabilitation and material capital level are highest in Guangzhou while other areas are relatively low and scattered. Five types of capital in coastal city in the eastern China and Yunfu, Maoming, Yangjiang of the western Guangdong is relatively low. 3) The total amount of livelihood capital of people with disabilities demonstrates significant spatial autocorrelation and regions with similar size tend to cluster geographically; distinctive differences are shown between hot regions and unpopular regions, with cluster distribution characteristics on the whole. Thereof, hot regions are mainly distributed in Guangzhou and Qingyuan while unpopular regions are mainly in Jieyang and Shanwei in the eastern Guangdong. Both have small coverage. The analysis finds that policy environment, economy level, education and training and rehabilitation service are all important factors that affect the spatial distribution pattern of livelihood capital of people with disabilities in Guangdong Province.

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    长江经济带“4E”协调发展时空格局研究
    王维
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1354-1362.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.008
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (673KB)

    利用综合评价法和耦合协调模型对长江经济带经济发展、生态保护、能源建设和教育质量及其协调发展的时空格局进行分析。研究表明:2003~2014年间长江经济带经济发展指数、生态保护指数、能源建设指数与教育质量指数持续上升,其中经济发展指数增长最为明显;4E综合发展水平、耦合度和协调度均呈现上升趋势,4E协调发展模式由中心聚集向均衡化发展转变。根据研究结论提出加快传统经济向绿色经济发展转型、提高资源环境的生态承载力、降低单位GDP的能源消耗量和提升科技成果的经济转化率的发展建议。


    Economy, ecology, energy and education (‘Four-E’) are essential elements for promoting regional coordinated development. Construct the comprehensive evaluation index system of 4E in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, comprehensively evaluates the spatial pattern of economic development, ecological protection, energy construction and educational quality of the Yangtze River Economic Zone from 2003 to 2014, and establish the coupling coordination evaluation model, analysis the temporal and spatial evolution trend of 4E coordinated development. Results show that: In 2003, the spatial pattern of ecological protection index of the Yangtze River Economic Zone was that the midstream area higher than the downstream area higher than the upstream area. From 2003 to 2014, the ecological protection index of the downstream areas increased rapidly, upstream area of energy construction and education quality index surpassed than the midstream area. In 2014, the spatial pattern of ecological protection index was that the downstream area higher than the area midstream area higher than the upstream area, the spatial pattern of energy construction and education quality index changed into the downstream area higher than the upstream area higher than the midstream area. In 2003, the spatial pattern of 4E in Yangtze River Economic Zone was the ecological protection index higher than the economic development index higher than the energy construction index higher than the education quality index. From 2003 to 2014, the economic development index, ecological protection index, energy construction index and education quality index of the Yangtze River Economic Zone continued to rise, which the economic development index growth is most obvious, ecological protection and energy construction, education quality growth rate was basically flat. In 2014, the spatial pattern of 4E turned to economic development index higher than the ecological protection index higher than the education quality index higher than the energy construction index. From 2003 to 2014, the 4E coordination index of the Yangtze River Economic Zone showed an upward trend, the coordinated development model of 4E changed from the center gather towards equalization. At the end of this article, some suggestions are put forward, such as accelerate the transformation of traditional economy to green economy, improving the ecological carrying capacity of resources and environment, reducing the energy consumption per unit of GDP and increasing the economic transformation rate of scientific and technological achievements.

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    广交会对星级酒店房价影响的时空分异研究——以第117和118届广交会为例
    周李,张清源,朱其静,陆林
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1363-1373.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.009
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1231KB)

    基于艺龙网酒店房价数据和问卷调查数据,运用数理统计方法以及反距离权重插值法,研究第117和118届广交会举办前后广州市主城区699家星级酒店客房价格变动的时空分异特征。研究表明:广交会举办一、二、三期形成3个谷峰,休会期形成谷底,总体呈现“三升三降”态势,展会期间酒店星级越高,房价的涨幅越大。广交会举办期间不同星级酒店房价热点区不同;酒店房价空间分布呈圈层式结构,以琶洲馆为中心呈现明显的距离衰减规律。酒店房价影响因素主要包括与会者需求、酒店类型、城市交通与展馆距离、商圈及生态环境、区域发展战略与方针政策等。酒店房价可以作为测度大型展会对城市影响的重要指标。


    Based on the e-long hotel rates and survey data, using mathematical and spatial analysis in inverse distance weighting interpolation methods, the spatio-temporal differentiation features of Guangzhou main city 699 star hotels before and after the 117th and the 118th Canton Fair are studied. Results shows that: 1) During the fair forms three peaks, the recess forms the bottom. Overall presents “three-liter three-down” situation. In addition, the higher the star, the greater the increase. Star hotel prices did not dramatically rise on the May Day and National Day. Hotel prices on National Day rose much lower than the show. 2) Different star hotels have different hot-spots of price during the Canton fair. Hotel prices’ spatial distribution shows circle structure. It takes Pazhou as the center and shows distance attenuation law significantly. The downtown area has higher hotel prices and it increases greatly than the edge. It is higher along the metro station, shopping district, railway stations and sports center. And extend towards the south trend obviously. 3) Different factors affect different directions on hotel prices. Hotel type have an impact on hotel prices increase. The degree of convenient transportation and distance from exhibition hall affect the hotel prices directly. In addition, distance from the business district and its surrounding natural environment affect the price fluctuation. Regional development strategies and policies are the key factors that affect the hotel prices. Each of the elements intertwined with each other affects the hotel prices trend. 4) Hotel prices can be used as an important indicator to measure the impact of large exhibition on the city.

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    供给侧改革背景下的黑龙江省旅游需求和旅游供给耦合协调发展
    于洪雁,刘继生
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1374-1381.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.010
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (419KB)

    在供给侧结构性改革背景下,依据耦合协调原理与模型,构建旅游供需评价指标体系,对黑龙江省旅游供需发展水平和耦合协调关系进行分析。研究表明:旅游需求和供给系统综合发展指数波动上升,发展态势良好; 旅游供需耦合协调度平稳增长,耦合协调等级经历轻度失调-濒临失调-勉强协调-初步协调;旅游供给滞后为历史特征,旅游需求滞后渐显扩大; 旅游需求和旅游供给各子系统耦合协调等级介于勉强协调与初级协调阶段;旅游供给子系统相对滞后,且交通供给滞后更为凸显。


    As the two elements of tourism economic system, it is of great significance to seek the balance and coordinate the relationship between tourism demand and supply. At the background of supply-side structural reform and according to the coupling coordination principal,the comprehensive evaluation index system of tourism demand and supply should be built and coupling coordination model is used to measure and evaluate the development level and relationship of tourism demand and supply of Heilongjiang Province. The research shows that: 1) From the point of view of the overall development of the tourism supply and demand system, from 2004 to 2014 the two systems of Heilongjiang Province rise in wave and the comprehensive development situation is good. The tourism demand system has low stability, high elasticity and strong restoring ability. The tourism supply system has significantly improved and the stability has highlighted. 2) From the point of view of the coupling coordination development of tourism supply and demand, from 2004 to 2014 the coupling coordination degree is steadily rising and coupling coordination level has experienced four stages: mild disorder-on the verge of disorder-barely coordination-preliminary coordination; the two systems has been from disorder to order, from the disorder to coordinate. In the tourism supply and demand type, the tourism supply lag is the historical characteristic and demand lag fade in expanding trend. 3) From the point of view of the structure of the coupling coordination development, the tourism demand and supply subsystem steadily increase and it is between barely coordination and preliminary coordination development stage. Compared with the tourism demand system, the tourism core reception subsystem give priority to develop, the tourism environment subsystem synchronously develop, the tourism service subsystem is relatively backward and the tourism transportation subsystem is badly lagged behind. Hereto, it is necessary to focus on boosting the structural reform of tourism supply side, optimize the structure of supply and improve supply efficiency for Heilongjiang Province. On the one hand, to increase the quantity of effective supply, we should not only pay attention to develop new tourism products, but also focus on making up for the lack of tourism core supply. On the other hand, to adjust the structure of tourism supply, the tourism supply focus on building the core tourism supply and environmental supply for a long time, and the supply of tourism services and transportation is seriously inadequate and become short. On the basis of supply and demand docking, according to the sequence of tourism transportation - travel services - tourism environment - tourism core reception, we need step-by-step and rhythmically to adjust the structure of tourism supply and to realize efficient development of tourism supply from the node to the whole domain, which is the stimulus "strong impetus" of tourism demand.

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    圣彼得堡土地利用格局现状特征及形成机制
    李晓玲,修春亮,ШендрикАлександрВладимирович,ЛачининскийСтаниславСергеевич,贺红士
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1382-1391.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.011
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (589KB)

    以圣彼得堡市为例,依据1948、1987和2016年土地利用数据计算居住、工业和商业用地的区位熵值并分析其变化,基于统计小区、圈层式及扇形分布3个视角,运用GIS分析计划与市场经济影响下的城市用地空间分布特征。研究结果表明,居住、工业和商业用地的空间分布规律不同: 3类用地在城市整体空间分布中均表现出一定的分散特征,其中,居住用地空间分布表现最为分散,工业用地呈现出分区域性布局特征,相比而言商业用地空间聚集程度最高; 商业用地在核心圈层处于主导地位,工业用地在老城区圈层为主导地位,居住用地在近郊区圈层为主导地位,远郊区圈层仍处于初步发展阶段,城市景观发展尚未成熟;对比圈层式和象限式结构各类用地区位熵值分布结果,提出圣彼得堡市3类用地空间分布扇形结构特征明显,说明沿主要交通线路是现代城市用地空间扩展主要方式,其中工业用地在城市空间分布中占据更为有利的交通区位优势,居住用地次之,商业用地在城市中心区域中分布不足。圣彼得堡城市用地空间分布形成主要机制总结为以下5个方面:前苏联时期城市用地空间结构主要框架的保持;行政区划调整为城市用地结构改善提供了路径;市场经济下住房体制改革推进了城市居住郊区化;土地市场对土地功能置换进程作用较弱;产业转型缓慢导致老城区仍主要为生产中心。


    Urban land use in Russia experienced the transition process from the planned economy of former Soviet Union to the market economy of post-Soviet Union. This article used St. Petersburg as an example and analyzed spatial pattern of urban land use of 1948, 1987 and 2016 and its chanages. We calculated the location quotients of residential, industrial and commercial land using GIS analysis and characterized the spatial structure of urban land use based on spheres of perspective of statistical area and land use data. The results showed that residential, industrial and commercial land distribution patterns are different. 1) Three land uses in the overall spatial distribution showed a certain degree of dispersion. Among them, residential land was the most dispersed, industrial land showed subregional distribution characteristics, in contrast, commercial land showed the highest level of aggregation; 2) Commercial land was dominant in the core circle, industrial land was dominant in the old town ring, and all three land use types showed highest intermix in this area spheres, and the outer suburbs circle was still in the initial stage of development, indicating that urban landscape development in this area was not yet mature; 3) Comparing location entropy of land use of quadrant and circle type, we found three land use types in St. Petersburg showing obvious characteristics of sector structure, indicating that the main form of urban space expansion was along major transport routes, where industrial land occupied a more favorable traffic sites in urban spatial distribution, followed by residential land, with inadequate distribution of commercial land in the city center area. Urban land use distribution in St. Petersburg was affected mainly by the planned economy and the present urban land development is still in the process of suburbanization. This study explored the impact of spatial development of metropolitan land use under different systems. It may provide a reference for other metropolitans experienced similar social transformation. Formations of land use pattern of St Petersburg may have the following five mechanisms: maintaining the mainframe of the former Soviet Union land use structure ; the administrative adjustments for improving the city land use structure; housing system reform under the market economy that promoted the city residential suburbanization; relatively weak land market function in land replacement process and the role of industrial transformation; old city still being the main production center, which slowed the land use transformation.

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    耕地生产力与粮食安全耦合关系与趋势分析——以河南省为例
    张鹏岩,庞博,何坚坚,郭依,朱连奇
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1392-1402.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.012
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (635KB)

    粮食是社会经济发展的重要保障。运用耕地、粮食安全测度模型对2005~2014年河南省粮食安全状况进行评估。结果表明:2005~2014年,农民种粮积极性上升10%,耕地压力指数下降71%,农民经济收益上升 13%,耕地重心向西南移动。 不同指标对耕地生产力的贡献率具有差异性。2005~2009年粮种比对耕地生产力的贡献率最大,2010~2014年贡献率发生转移,粮食播种面积单位产量对耕地生产力的贡献率最大;10 a间,粮种比的贡献(69.77%)相对粮食单产的贡献(39.28%)更能促进河南省耕地生产力的提高。 耕地压力受到自然、社会等多方面因素影响。各指标间相关关系较强,种粮积极性与农民耕地保护能力的二者呈现负相关关系。


    Food is the important guarantee of the social and economic development. By taking the Henan Province agricultural data (2014-2015) as the indicator layer, this article assessed the food security in Henan Province by using standard cultivated land coefficient model, food resources carrying capacity, cultivated land pressure index model and food safety driving force model. The results showed that: 1) From 2005 to 2014, the overall cultivated land productivity increased steadily, the farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain increased by 10% in study area, the pressure index of cultivated land decreased by 71%, the farmers’ income increased by 13%, and the gravity center of the cultivated land showed a southwest movement trend. It’s that cultivated land resource in 10 years appeared in the southwest area of cultivated land resource is higher than the northeast, the southwestern cities of cultivated land resources protection weak in northwestern region of Henan Province; 2) Between 2005 and 2009, the contribution rate of planting ratio of grain to the arable land productivity in Henan Province was 80.61%; In 2010-2014, contribution rate extreme value transferred to grain yield per unit, and its contribution rate was 100.37%; Compared with grain yield per unit area, planting ratio of grain had a leading role in improving the productivity of cultivated land in Henan Province. In addition, overall situation of cultivated land productivity will increase steadily, and cultivated land pressure coefficient and standard has obvious negative correlation between cultivated land coefficient, cultivated land pressure index space distribution in northern and eastern pressure is low, cultivated land pressure decrease gradually from west to east; 3) Fertilizer input, the farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and protection ability of cultivated land had a strong coupling relationship with food security; However, the farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain and protection ability of cultivated land presented a negative correlation. High cultivated land pressure index of Zhengzhou and Sanmenxia is the result of social and economic elements and natural geographical environment. In terms of Zhengzhou, the limited urban area within the scope of regional economic development, get more economic benefit, is the important foothold of its development. In terms of unit efficiency, the unit of second and third industry output value is much higher than the first industry, cultivated land become one of main way to obtain higher economic benefits. The behavior of lead to Zhengzhou City since 2005 cultivated land pressure index is high, and the food security situation showed a trend of deterioration.

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    大凌河流域土地利用/覆被变化及其对气候变化的响应研究
    裴亮,刘阳,陈晨
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1403-1410.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.013
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (670KB)

    基于Landsat遥感影像提取大凌河流域1986~2014年7期土地利用/覆被变化信息,并结合1986~2014年流域气候变化情况,发现大凌河流域土地利用变化对流域气候变化具有负面影响。研究表明: 近30 a大凌河流域土地利用/覆被变化情况表现为:建设用地和农林用地的大幅度扩张,面积分别增加了322.30 km2和1 504.94 km2,并伴随着水域和旱地及其他未利用地面积的显著减少,面积分别减少了102.42 km2和1 724.61 km2; 大凌河流域近30 a来土地利用变化导致流域平均年降水量、平均相对湿度及平均风速小幅度下降,分别减少了14.94 mm、0.2%和0.04 m/s,平均气温缓慢上升,增长了0.1℃; 退耕还林还草及成立凌河保护区等工作能提高流域植被覆盖面积、使流域水域面积得以回升,从而可以缓解城市热岛效应带来的温度升高,提高流域生态环境质量。


    This article achieved the extraction of land use and land cover change information of the Daling River Basin from 1986 to 2014 (7 periods) based on Landsat remote sensing image. It was found that land use change has a negative effect on climate by analyzing climate change (13 periods). The results showed that: 1) Construction land and farming-forest land expanded obviously, the area increased respectively by 322.30 km2 and 1 504.94 km2 accompanying by waters and beach and other unused land shrunk significantly, the area decreased respectively by 102.42 km2 and 1 724.61 km2; 2) Land use of Daling River Basin lead to average annual rainfall, average relative humidity and average wind speed minor decreasing, decreased respectively by 14.94 mm, 0.2% and 0.04 m/s; average temperature rising slowly, increased by 0.1℃; 3) Policies of returning farmland to forest and grassland and establishing basin reserve management can increase vegetation and water coverage area, thus relieve temperature rise brought by urban heat island effect and improve the quality of ecological environment in the Daling River Basin.

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    基于多种高分辨率卫星数据的TRMM降水数据降尺度研究——以内蒙古地区为例
    范科科,段利民,张强,史培军,刘剑宇,顾西辉,孔冬冬
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1411-1421.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.014
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (861KB)

    利用内蒙古地区2001~2010年42个站点实测降水数据作为“真值”,采用LOO(Leave-One-Out)交叉验证、多元逐步回归等方法,构建TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)降水数据与地形及气候等要素之间的多元回归关系,在此基础上,利用回归值+残差值的方法,获得空间分辨率为1 km×1 km的TRMM年降水数据,并对降尺度TRMM数据进行精度检验。研究表明: TRMM数据可用于区域年降水量估计,且与实测年降水量呈显著线性关系;通过建立不同年份、不同空间分辨率TRMM数据与其它遥感数据的多元统计模型,研究发现在中尺度下TRMM与观测年降水数据拟合效果较好,且在空间分辨率为0.50°×0.50°时的拟合效果最好;降尺度分析提高了TRMM数据对研究区降水时空特征的描述能力,确定性系数、标准误差和偏差均有明显改善,表明降尺度算法在将TRMM降水数据空间分辨率提高到1 km×1 km的同时,并能提高降水数据的精度。


    Precipitation is a significant part of the hydrological cycle and so the investigation of changes in precipitation characteristics is normally the first step in investigating the impact of climate change on water availability. However, high-resolution precipitation datasets are seldom available, which, to some extend, limits our understanding of spatio-temporal patterns in precipitation regies and basin scale hydrology. Since regions around the globe with sufficient precipitation gauge networks that are up to the challenge of this type of research are few and far between, precipitation estimations from space borne sensors are often applied to supplement the information collected from existing low-resolution precipitation gauge networks in near real-time applications. Based on observed daily precipitation data as “real data” from 42 stations covering a period of 2001-2010 in the Inner Mongolia, China, TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) precipitation data with spatial resolution of 0.25°×0.25° was downscaled based on statistical relations between NDVI, meteorological variables, and DEM using LOO (Leave-One-Out) cross evaluation method, spatial autocorrelation analysis methods. The lag time between NDVI and precipitation changes was also considered in this study. The results indicated that: 1) On annual scale, TRMM data can be used for estimation of annual precipitation amount in the Inner Mongolia Region and linear relations can be identified between annual TRMM and observed precipitation data; 2) The analysis of the effect of lagging on the vegetation response to precipitation indicates that a period of 10 days accurately is the lag time, showing the relatively rapid vegetation response to precipitation. Moran’s I indicates that the vegetation index is spatially correlated and identified spatial heterogeneity in the transitional zones between different types of land use and land cover and the unused land area; 3) Significant relations between TRMM and observed precipitation can be detected at moderate spatial scale with spatial resolution of 0.50°×0.50°; 4) Temperature is found to be an important factor influencing downscaling of TRMM precipitation data due to high sensitivity of NDVI changes to temperature variations in the Inner Mongolia Region. Inner Mongolia is topographically levelling and hence DEM is not the significant factor having impacts on downscaled TRMM data; 5) Downscaled TRMM can well reflect spatial patterns of annual precipitation changes. Less precipitation can be found in west Inner Mongolia and more precipitation in south and southeast Inner Mongolia. This study provides another possibility in evaluation of spatial patterns of precipitation changes, and hence provides and right precipitation dataset for conservation of grassland and also irrigation management in the highly eco-environmentally fragile region.

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    辽宁省潜在蒸散发量及其敏感性规律分析
    曹永强,高璐,袁立婷,李维佳
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1422-1429.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.015
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (848KB)

    采用Penman-Monteith法和敏感系数法对辽宁省1965~2014年潜在蒸散发量及影响潜在蒸散发的气象因子敏感性进行分析,探讨气候变化下影响辽宁省潜在蒸散发量变化的主导因子及潜在蒸散发对气候变化的定量响应。结果表明:近50 a辽宁省潜在蒸散发呈现显著减少趋势,在空间上由西向东递减; 潜在蒸散发对气象因子的敏感性在年尺度上表现为,水汽压最为敏感,其次为太阳辐射、风速、平均气温;在季节尺度上,春季和秋季对平均气温最不敏感,夏季对风速最不敏感,冬季对太阳辐射最不敏感; 空间分布上,气象因素的敏感系数与气象因子空间变化规律相吻合,潜在蒸散发对气温的敏感性由北部向南部递增,对水汽压、太阳辐射的敏感性由东部向西部递减,而风速与之变化趋势相反。 风速的显著降低是辽宁省潜在蒸散发量下降的主要原因,太阳辐射的下降及水汽压的升高也促使了潜在蒸散发量的下降。


    Research the change of potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity, it is of great significance for agricultural sustainable development and protection of the ecological environment. This article use Penman-Monteith method and sensitivity coefficient method to analyze spatial and temporal variation of potential evapotranspiration and sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to average temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and vapor pressure from 1965 to 2014 in Liaoning Province. It aimed to investigate the dominant factors affecting the potential evapotranspiration and the quantitative response of potential evapotranspiration to climate change. The results showed that: Nearly 50 years potential evapotranspiration showed a significant decrease trend. In space, it presented by the west to east decreasing trend. The reference evapotranspiration was most sensitive to vapor pressure, which is followed by solar radiation and wind speed, average temperature on an annual scale. In terms of season, average temperature was the least sensitive variable in spring and autumn, wind speed was the least sensitive variable in summer and solar radiation was the least sensitive variable in winter. Spatially speaking, spatial variation of meteorological factors and its sensitivity coefficient are consistent during the year. Sensitivity to the temperature of the potential evaporation is increasing north to the south, sensitivity to the vapor pressure and solar radiation of the potential evaporation is decreasing east to west, but the change of wind speed is opposite. The main reasons for the decrease of potential evapotranspiration in Liaoning Province are the significant decrease of wind speed, and the decrease of solar radiation and the increase of vapor pressure also contribution to the decrease of potential evapotranspiration.

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    1950~2011年渤海地区海表风场的季节特征与多尺度变化分析
    任惠茹,李国胜,郭腾蛟,张悦,欧阳宁雷
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1430-1438.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.016
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (850KB)

    基于1950~2011年的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对渤海10 m风场的风速与风向变化进行多尺度分析。利用小波分析、交叉谱分析等方法对渤海海域的海表风速、风向的变化趋势以及周期进行研究。分析发现:渤海地区海表风的风向与风速除了存在显著的季节性变化特征外,在年际、年代际的变化尺度上也有明显的周期性。风向存在1 a、8.7 a、15.8 a的显著周期,风速存在1 a、6.3 a、15 a的显著周期。风向与风速在时间尺度分别为20 a、5.71 a、2.67 a时存在显著共振周期;共振周期受东亚季风、西太平副热带高压的年际、年代际变化的影响呈现出多尺度变化周期。


    Multi-scale variability characteristics of ocean surface wind direction and speed from 1950 to 2011 are studied based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Sea surface wind field shows the seasonal characteristics. Results show that: in past 62 years, large area of wind direction in the Bohai Sea tend to be from northwest to northwest northand wind speed is the most in winter;wind direction tend to be from southeast to easterly winds and wind speed is the lest in summer; wind speed has started to decreased since 1970s and reduced significantly in winter. Wavelet analysis and cross-spectral analyzing are used to observe wind direction and speed on the Bohai Sea over the last 62 years. The characteristics of ocean surface wind direction and speed in the Bohai Sea show periodic oscillation at inter-annual and decadal scale. The main periods of wind direction are 1-year, 8.7-year, 15.8-year; whereas the main periods of wind speed are 1-year, 6.3-year, 15-year. The significant resonance periods between wind direction and speed are observed at the following temporal scales: 2.67-year, 5.71-year, 20-year. The resonance periods have relationship with variability of East-Asian Monsoon and Western Pacific Subtropical High.

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    不确定性条件下的下辽河平原地下水脆弱性评价及空间分布软区划
    奚旭,张新长,孙才志,鲍建腾
    地理科学. 2017, 37 (9): 1439-1448.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.09.017
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (640KB)

    建立地下水脆弱性评价的DRASTICH模型,辨析各个参数的不确定性特征,采用随机模拟方法同时对随机性参数和模糊性参数模拟赋值。分别对模糊性参数和脆弱性指数统计值设立具有概率分布意义的置信水平和百分位,得到多重地下水脆弱性的指数区间,在此基础上,分别绘制地下水脆弱性的保守分布图和冒险分布图,并对研究区地下水脆弱性分布状况进行分析。结果表明:以模糊区间形式表示的地下水脆弱性评价结果,能反映多种不确定因素综合影响下的地下水脆弱性客观实际情况,可提供更多可靠性方面的信息;以软区划方式制作地下水脆弱性分布图,保留了不确定性客观存在的事实,可给予决策者更多参考信息和调整余地;地下水脆弱性软区划分布图显示:保守分布的脆弱性程度总体要高于冒险分布,置信水平选择越高,冒险分布与保守分布的空间分布差异越接近,且与最大可能性分布情况越接近;研究区地下水脆弱性分布具有明显的空间集聚现象,地下水高脆弱性区域主要集聚在下辽河平原中部和南部地区,低脆弱性区域一般分布在下辽河平原东、西两侧地区。


    Based on the DRASTICH model of groundwater vulnerability assessment, the uncertainty characteristics of each parameter were analyzed, and the stochastic simulation method was used to simulate both random parameters and fuzzy parameters. By setting the confidence level of the fuzzy parameters and the percentile of the vulnerability index, we obtain the confidence interval of the multiple groundwater vulnerability. On this basis, the soft zoning distribution of the groundwater vulnerability was plotted according to the expectation vulnerability index of upper limit fuzzy interval and the lower limit fuzzy interval. The results showed that: 1) The evaluation results of groundwater vulnerability in the form of the confidence interval can reflect the objective reality of the groundwater vulnerability under the influence of various uncertain factors, and provide more reliability than the conventional method; 2) The soft zoning distribution of groundwater vulnerability map, which preserves the fact that uncertainty is objective, can give decision maker more reference information; 3) The soft zoning distribution of groundwater vulnerability showed: the degree of vulnerability of the conservative distribution of the overall higher than the risk distribution, the higher the confidence level selection, adventure distribution and conservative distribution of the spatial distribution of the difference, and with the maximum possible; 4) The distribution of groundwater vulnerability in the study area was spatial agglomeration, high groundwater vulnerability areas were generally concentrated in the middle and the southern region of the lower Liaohe River Plain, low groundwater vulnerability areas were generally distributed in both east and west sides of the lower Liaohe River Plain.

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