以ZG市公共空间盗窃、入室盗窃、寻衅滋事、接触诈骗、抢劫抢夺犯罪为研究对象,采用K均值聚类法识别不同类型的犯罪共生空间;并通过决策树模型分析了不同犯罪共生空间的特征。结果表明,ZG市犯罪共生空间可划分为4种类型：① 无犯罪类型共生区;② 公共空间盗窃和接触诈骗犯罪共生区;③ 所有类型犯罪共生区;④ 入室盗窃、寻衅滋事和抢劫抢夺犯罪共生区。城市中各异的社会环境和建成环境产生了不同类型的犯罪机会,而且各类社会环境和建成环境之间存在着条件交互性作用。研究结果为制定犯罪的联合防控策略和实现有限警力的合理布控并且提高执法效率提供了理论基础。
Research on the spatial distribution of crime most often shows that the spatial distribution of crime is not homogeneous. Moreover, a subset of this literature shows that spatial distributions of different crime types show similarities across urban space. This raises the possibility of symbiotic relationships between different types of crime in urban space. Previous studies focus on spatial concentrations, spatial patterns and hotspot distributions of crime. They ignore associations between different types of crime in space. This paper arms to fill the gap by examining the association between different types of crime, detecting symbiotic clusters of crime, and characterizing these clusters. So theft, burglary, affray, fraud and robbery are extracted from the call for services data of ZG city. Application of the K-means clustering algorithm on these data detects symbiotic clusters of various types of crime. Points of interest from commercial navigation data sets and the sixth census data are used to characterize the socio-economic environments of the symbiotic clusters, with the assistance of the decision tree algorithm of Weka. The results show that ZG city can be divided into 4 symbiotic clusters of crime: 1) low incidence of all crime; 2) high incidence of theft, fraud and low incidence of burglary, affray, and robbery; 3) high incidence of all crime; 4) high incidence of burglary, affray, robbery and low incidence of theft, and fraud. Cluster 1 is characterized by high bus station density, low proportion of floating population, high proportion of elder and low catering facilities density. The social and physical environment of cluster 1 generate only a few convergences of motivated offenders, suitable targets, and incapable guardians. As such, all crime rates becomes low due to the lack of crime opportunities. Cluster 2 is characterized by high bus station density, high proportion of floating population, high proportion of young and low proportion of rental housing. The social and physical environment of cluster 2 host large volume of convergences of motivated offenders, suitable targets of and incapable guardians, generating extensive opportunities for larceny and fraud. Cluster 3 is characterized by high bus station density, high proportion of floating population, low proportion of young, high proportion of rental housing and high catering facilities. Ordinary crime emerges when a likely offender converges with a suitable crime target in the absence of a capable guardian against crime. The social and physical environment of cluster 3 can make such convergences much more likely for all types of crime. Cluster 4 is characterized by low bus station density, high catering facilities density, high supermarkets density, low proportion of young and high residential quarter density. The social and physical environment of cluster 3 bring down the number of potential offenders and targets, and subsequently the opportunities for burglary, affray and robbery. The potential value of the results is to provide useful guidance for the joint prevention of different type of crime.
In light of the problem that the criminal geographic targeting(CGT) model fails to consider the impact of geographical environment factors and has low prediction accuracy in the prediction of the footholds of suspects in a series of cases, this article proposes a method of optimizing the criminal geographic targeting model taking into account of geo-environment. By using the correlation analysis and gray relational analysis, the research depicts the geo-environment relatedness of footholds of suspects; based on the multi-classifier system theory, conducts nonlinear combination optimization of the geo-environmental factors and the CGT model, and carries out accuracy assessment of predicting outcomes in terms of the search distance and the area error. Taking the series of property crime cases in Qingyuan and Shaoguan as sample data, a comparative experiment on model prediction shows that the prediction accuracy of the improved model is significantly higher than that of CGT and GEO-CGT models. The research expands the method of predicting the footholds of suspects in a series of cases and effectively improves the prediction accuracy, demonstrating a great significance for the police to narrow the search scope and increase the probability of successful arresting of suspects.
While fraud has become more prevalent in today's society, there has been few study on gender differences on fraud, and even fewer on the contributing factors of such differences, especially in the context of non-contact fraud (NCF) vs contact fraud (CF). This article aims to narrow this gap by examining fraud data from the police of ZG old city, covering the period from 2015 to 2016, to reveal possible relationships between fraud and individual characteristics of the victims. Results of hierarchical linear models (HLM) on the ratio of NCF/CF suggest that both personal and community factors play an important role for females and males, especially the latter. Specifically, local household registration status, time of fraud in terms of day vs night, and the level of education of the individuals, show similar strength and direction for both females and males. At the community level, risk factors are totally different across different genders. The percent of colleges and the young people show significant positive correlation, while the number of bank branches, percent of migrant population and divorce rate pose a negative impact for female victims. For male victims, percent of rental properties shows a positive correlation while level of education, percent of agricultural population and existence of large retail outlets have negative impacts. Findings of this study adds to the literature on fraud, and may provide insight on developing strategies for fraud prevention and reduction.
以东南沿海城市ZG市为例,分析工作日地铁扒窃案件的时空分布特征,并进一步结合日常活动理论,探讨其形成机理。研究发现：① 时空分布上,地铁扒窃案件存在早晚2 个峰值,但滞后于地铁客流量高峰;白天,地铁扒窃主要集中在中心城区,在早晚时段,除中心城区外,地铁扒窃在城郊地区也有较多分布。② 影响因素上,地铁扒窃主要受到客流量及建成环境的影响,不同时段影响的因素存在差异。客流量及换乘点在地铁运营的任意时段均对地铁扒窃有正向的影响,地铁站周边的休闲场所对地铁扒窃犯罪的影响主要体现在9:00以后的时段。居住地及工作地虽然整体上对地铁扒窃没有显著影响,但是他们对地铁扒窃案件的作用方向在各时段模型中的作用力度均相反。③ 影响强度上,客流量在不同时段对地铁扒窃的影响强度存在差异,而换乘点及休闲场所在显著的时间段对地铁扒窃的影响力度并无明显差别。
Subway is one of the key transport modes in cities due to its fast and convenient system. At the same time, the criminal events that occur in the subway stations and subway trains should not be neglected. Although there has been a certain amount of literature emphasized the impact of environmental design on pickpocketing in subway systems, these studies ignored that residents’ daily activities may also act as important factors on subway crimes. In order to fill this gap, this article chose ZG city as a case, the spatio-temporal pattern of pickpocketing in the subway stations on weekdays and their influencing factors were revealed based on residents’ routine activity, environmental design in the subway system and the activity facilities around subway stations. Pickpocketing data in subway stations of ZG city, points of interest(POI) nearby subway stations, and detail information of subways stations (spatial distribution and structure of subway stations) were used in this study. In order to find out the spatio-temporal pattern of pickpocketing, we separated a set of full weekdays into four periods based on the passenger traffic, and allocated pickpocket cases to every subway station for each time period. Then, negative binomial regression models were used to find out the influencing factors on the spatio-temporal pattern on pickpocketing. Furthermore, Wald tests were used to compare whether there was a significant difference between the same independent variables in each model. The results have shown that: 1) From the perspective of spatio-temporal distribution, rates of pickpocketing were highly correlated to the passenger traffic in subways, but it should be aware of that the peak pickpocketing lagged behind the peak passenger traffic. As time went on in the morning, pickpocketing in the subway transferred from the suburbs to the city center, while the working time finished, the direction of pickpocketing transferred reversely. 2) Passenger traffic in subways had a steady significant positive impact on pickpocketing. In the meantime, subways surrounded by more leisure activity places were more vulnerable to be victimized. 3) Passenger traffic in subways had different degree of influence at different time, while other variables had no significant difference. From the above results we can conclude that there was spatio-temporal agglomeration of pickpocketing cases in subway stations, and this agglomeration changed as time went by during the day. This agglomeration was caused by the residents’ daily activity, subways stations that were with more passenger traffic and more active facilities were more likely to become criminal places. In addition, factors were not equally contributed to crime events at different period of the day. Our results may help understand the relationship between residents’ activity and pickpocketing in subway systems more thoroughly. The conclusions can also be applied in the policing practice.
以Walk Score、CGT模型为测度,用Pearson相关系数、广义线性模型、广义地理加权回归模型分析H市城区步行环境对两抢一盗警情的影响。研究发现：① H市城区可步行性对两抢一盗警情的影响可能以正相关作用为主,可步行性越好,两抢一盗警情案发次数可能越高。② 步行环境对于两抢一盗警情案发次数和嫌疑人居住地概率的影响可能均有空间异质性。在不同区域步行环境对两抢一盗案发次数与嫌疑人居住概率的影响各异。主要交通枢纽站及交通干道沿线区域步行环境较好,模型结果显示两抢一盗案发次数与嫌疑人居住概率也较高。具有较健全的安保系统,且对人员出入进行控制的高级酒店、商厦、旅游景区等区域步行环境较好,模型结果显示两抢一盗案发次数与嫌疑人居住概率较低。
The urban space environment is an important factor for urban crimes. A greater walkability of city can reduce the crime rate in many Criminal Geography theories. However, there is few empirical studies in China. Previous studies on Criminal Geography paid more attention to the role of urban environment in crime prevention, and lack of attention to its auxiliary function of criminal investigation. This study built a multi-source spatial database by combining the theory of CPTED, Defensible Space, Criminal Behavior and Geographic Profiling. The municipal district of H city located in the southeastern coastal region of China was taken as a case study area. The Walk Score and criminal geographic targeting model were applied for the measurement. The Pearson correlation coefficient, generalized linear model, geographically weighted generalized linear regression model were used to analyze the impact of urban walking environment on robbery, snatch and theft crime (RST). The results showed that the walking environment probably has a positive effect on the RST crime in H city, the greater walkability, the more RST. The effects of walking environment probably has spatial heterogeneity features both on RST and the residence probability of suspects. There were different impacts of walking environment on the RST and the residence probability of suspects in different regions. The areas near the major transportation hubs or along the main road have great walking environment. However, they probably have more RST and higher residence probability of suspects than other places based on result of model. Although the high-grade hotels, commercial buildings and tourist attractions have great walking environment, there were low RST and the residence probability of suspects based on result of model due to the sound security and personnel access control system. This research provides a reference for prevention and investigation for robbery, snatch and theft crime.
将287个地级以上城市（不包括港澳台地区）作为研究对象,以中国知网发布的168个学科领域期刊论文数量为数据来源,对中国地级以上城市知识专业化水平、影响因素及其与经济发展的关系进行了研究。研究发现：① 中国地级以上城市的专业化水平总体偏低,多样化水平较为明显;知识专业化水平西部地区>中部地区>东部地区;地区相对专业化指数随城市行政等级依次升高,即直辖市<副省级城市<省会城市<普通地级市。具有资源优势的城市,其知识专业化领域高度集中在以资源为基础的领域;中小城市的知识专业化领域相对较少,专业化程度高;大中城市知识专业化领域多,多样化趋势明显,但各领域的知识专业化程度相对较低。从城市等级上来看,知识专业化程度表现为五线城市>四线城市>三线城市>二线城市>一线城市。② 知识专业化水平主要受科教经济因素、人才潜力和服务业因素、工业基础因素、人口规模因素四大因素影响。③ 知识专业化与经济发展关系密切,整体呈现倒U形关系;但各区域随发展阶段不同,表现出不同的形式可以分为U形、倒U形、M形和W形4种大类型。
In the era of knowledge economy, knowledge becomes the most important dynamics for development of the city, urban development depends on the richness of urban knowledge including storage of knowledge, knowledge contents and knowledge of the division of labor. Amount of literature have examined the knowledge specialization, however, few could touch the relationship between cities and knowledge specialization in China. We still could not answer the questions, such as, what does knowledge specialization of Chinese cities? How does it distribute in Chinese cities? What the influential factors are determined urban knowledge specialization? What is the relationship between knowledge specialization and economic development? In order to answer these questions, taking more than 287 above prefecture cities as the research object, using the amount of articles of CNKI including 168 field of discipline as data source, we examines the knowledge specialization level of above prefectural cities in China, influence factors determining the knowledge specialization, and its relationship with economic development . The study shows that: 1) the level of knowledge specialization of Chinese cities is generally low and the diversity level is obvious. From the area, the level of knowledge specialization in the eastern China are higher than that of central China, that central China are high than that the western China. The relative specialization index of the area shows in order from low to high, municipality directly under the central government, vice provincial cities, the provincial capital and prefecture cities. Knowledge specialization area in the cities with resource advantage, is highly concentrated in resources-based field; Small and medium-sized cities have relatively less areas of knowledge specialization and high degree of knowledge of specialization, while, large and medium-sized cities have many fields of knowledge specialization, but low knowledge specialization with obvious knowledge diversified of characteristic. From the city level, the knowledge specialization degree manifested in the order from high to low, the fifth tier cities, the fourth tier cities, the third tier cities, the second tier cities and the first tier cities. 2) Knowledge specialization is mainly influenced by 4 factors: the economy and factor of science and education, the talent potential and the service industry, the industrial base factor, and the factor of population size. 3) The relationship between knowledge specialization and economic development is closely related, and the overall relationship is inverted “U”. However, different regions show different forms of shaped, inverted U, M and W types; this may result by the varied economic development stages and some regional background.
The research of centrality of urban network is an important entry point to analyze the hierarchical structure and explore the evolution process of urban network. First the two-stage ownership linkages model to identify urban network through the lens of corporate networks is developed and the urban network in China is defined based on the top listed 100 enterprises in 2016. Then the spatial patterns of urban network centrality in China are studied from three perspectives of outdegree, betweeness and indgree. Finally the key factors affecting city network centrality are identified using two econometric methods of robust regression and the mechanisms of the key factors are analyzed. Three main findings are concluded. First, the spatial distribution of centrality in the urban network in China is unbalanced and heterogeneous. The spatial structure of outdegree and betweenness centrality both exhibit core-periphery patterns with primate city with great power. The spatial concentration of indegree centrality is relatively low, with multiple core cities. There is a significant spatial correlation between the three centrality measures of outdegree, betweeness and indegree. The three regions of Bohai Rim, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta have high level of centrality values, becoming the core areas of urban network power system in China, while most cities in Central and Western China become periphery regions, which suggests that cities with more power have more prestige attracting others to relate. Second, the network function of cities in China exhibits differentiation. Based on the combination of different centerality measures, the urban system in China can be divided into five functional levels: the national dominant center with the highest level of outdegree and betweeness centrality (including Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen), regional command centers with high level of outdegree centrality but low level of betweeness centrality (i.e. Wuhan, Guangzhou, etc.), regional gateway cities with high level of betweeness centrality but low level of outdegree centrality (i.e. Dalian, Nanjing, etc.), investing centers with relatively high level of indegree centrality but low level of both outdegree and betweeness centrality (i.e. Ningbo and Lanzhou), and the periphery cities with low level of all the three centrality measures. The spatial pattern of the power in urban network is different from the urban hierarchy predicted by central place theory, which reveals that the foundation for the development of China's urban system is undergoing profound changes. Third, economic scale, knowledge capital, aviation facilities and political resources are key factors influencing the spatial pattern of urban network centrality. The results reveal that preferential attachment is an important mechanism in the development of China’s urban system: the cities with large market size, good aviation infrastructure, abundant knowledge capital and political resources will have the advantages in attracting more corporate headquarters or branch layouts. This paper will enrich and deepen the understanding of the characteristics of urban network structure in China, and provide references for the construction of urban network theory.
As a new type of innovation and entrepreneurship hatching platform, the Mass Makerspace has become an important way to implement China’s the innovation-driven development strategy. Among all the regions, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is one of the main agglomeration areas of national Mass Makerspace, which has a profound impact on China’s innovation promotion. This paper applies Nearest Neighbor Analysis and Kernel Density Estimation methods to illustrate the historical development and geographical patterns of national Mass Makerspace in the YRD, based on the list of national Mass Makerspaces identified by the Torch Center of Ministry of Science and Technology of China, and other related official statistics as supplementary data sources; meanwhile, we also use Geographical Detector Method to explore the locational factors which influence the spatial patterns of the national Mass Makerspace. Based on the above-mentioned work, we reach four conclusions. Firstly, the geographical distribution of the national Mass Makerspace in the YRD has undergone rapid changes including three development stages: the first stage (before December 2nd 2015) has the agglomeration rate of 0.54; the second stage (from December 2nd 2015 to February 2016) has the agglomeration rate of 0.53; and the third stage (from February 2016 till now) has the agglomeration rate of 0.54. It shows an increasing agglomeration development trend. Secondly, the three development stages show different spatial patterns. In the first stage, three agglomerations of national Mass Makerspace are spotted, namely large Hangzhong core, and two small cores including Hefei and Suzhou. In the second stage, Shanghai replaced Hangzhou as the biggest agglomeration region. “Z” spatial pattern of Hefei-Nanjing-Suzhou-Shanghai-Hangzhou-Ningbo has formed, with Shanghai and Hangzhou as two main cores, and Nanjing and Suzhou as two small cores centers. The third stage witnesses the growing the former small cores. Former small cores develop into larger cores, with Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing as three main cores, and Hefei, Suzhou-Wuxi and Ningbo as three small cores centers. Thirdly, we prove the diffusion effects of Shanghai into two directions: To west wing, including Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Yangzhou, and to south wing, from Jiaxing to Hangzhou. Fourthly, we find out that urban economic strength, social environment and innovation milieu have important influences on the spatial distribution of the national Mass Makerspace in the YRD. The most important factors are the stock of financial capital,openness ,urban economic scale,the degree of informatization and innovation vitality followed by three factors such as the city’s R&D investment,the accessibility of transportation,governmental support,the industrial structure,scientific research strength,diversity and the amount of entrepreneurial actors. In addition, the development of National High-tech Park has certain influence on the spatial development of the National Mass Makerspace in the YRD too, but much lower than other factors.
以Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像为主要数据源,提取哈长城市群1990、2000、2010、2015 年4 个年份的建设用地信息,采用年均扩展指数、景观扩展指数、多距离空间聚类函数、空间分维度等对城镇用地扩展进程进行分析。结果表明,1990~2015年间,哈长城市群城镇用地增加57 321.47 hm2,增长率为21.05%,整体扩展强度呈上升趋势;空间扩展表现出以中心城市为核心的扩展模式,边缘式增长在各个时期均为主导增长方式;空间扩展聚集性总体表现出“先增强、后减弱”趋势,整体空间结构相对稳定。国家宏观政策、非农业GDP增量和第三产业GDP增量是影响哈长城市群城镇用地扩展的重要因素。GDP增量、非农业人口增量、第二产业GDP增量对城镇用地的扩展起阶段性作用;人均GDP增量与城市用地扩展相关性不显著。
Harbin-Changchun city cluster plays a very important role in the implementation of the New Urbanization Plan of China (2014-2020). Development of Harbin-Changchun city cluster is an important step to implement the strategy of revitalizing Northeast China and promote the integration of regional economy. Based on Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI remote sensing imagery, information of urban land in Harbin-Changchun city cluster were extracted in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015 by object-oriented classification method. A variety of spatial analysis methods, including Expansion Intensity Index, Landscape Expansion Index, Multi-distance Spatial Clustering function, and Fractal Dimension were used to analyze the expansions of urban land in study area. Furthermore, combing with statistical data, we analyzed the driving factors influenced the expansion of Harbin-Changchun city cluster. 1) Total area of urban land increased by 57 321.47 hm2 with growth rate of 21.05% from 1990 to 2015. Expansion intensity of urban land showed an upward trend in the last 25 years. Because the marginal growth was the dominant growth model, expansions intensity index of central cities were larger than that of secondary central cities, which led to an expansion pattern with the central city as the core. 2) The characteristics of urban land agglomeration showed the process of “increasing first then decreasing” according to analysis of Ripley’s function. Structure of Harbin-Changchun city cluster was stable relatively since 1990 according to the result of Fractal Dimension. 3) The analysis of driving factors showed that national macro policies played very import role in the expansion process of Harbin-Changchun city cluster during last 25 years. Effect bought by socio economic factors were also analyzed by Pearson Correlation Method, results indicating that non-agricultural GDP increments and third industry increments were important factors that affected the urban land expansion of Harbin-Changchun city cluster. Function on urban land expansion played by GDP increments, non-agricultural population increment, second industry increments has the stage characteristic. There is no significant correlation between per capita GDP increment and urban land expansion. For Harbin-Changchun city cluster, to optimize the overall structure of the city group, enhance the functions of key cities in the region, exert the role of the northern open door of Urban Agglomeration, and follow a more “smart” growth route were highlighted in the future development planning. In addition, the contradiction between the smaller population scale and faster economic development, the coordination between urban development and cultivated land protection, the optimization of the second industry and the third industry structure are all the problems that should be resolved to guarantee a stable and healthy development of Harbin- Changchun city cluster in the future.
选取浙江省189个特色小镇为研究样本,运用最邻近点指数、地理集中指数、地理联系率、核密度指数等方法研究特色小镇的分布规律及影响因素。结果表明：① 浙江省特色小镇类型丰富,可以划分为信息经济、环保、健康、旅游、时尚、金融、高端装备制造以及历史经典8个类型;② 浙江省特色小镇整体空间分布趋于集聚,空间结构属于凝聚型;③ 八大类型中信息经济和金融类特色小镇集聚程度高,高端设备制造和旅游类特色小镇数量多、布局分散;④ 经济基础、人口密度、产业集群创新和城镇化水平是影响特色小镇分布的主要因素。
Zhejiang province is a leading area of characteristic towns. It has a strong research and reference significance for the planning and construction of Characteristic Towns in China. The article constructs the classification system of characteristic towns, and selects 189 representative characteristic towns in Zhejiang Province as the research sample. The article explores the distribution pattern of characteristic towns and studies the factors affecting the distribution of characteristic towns by the methods of the nearest point index, geographic concentration index, geographical connection rate, nuclear density and so on. The conclusions are as follows: 1) There are 8 primary types of characteristic towns in Zhejiang Province, respectively as follows: information economy, environmental protection, healthy, tourism, fashion, finance, high-end equipment manufacturing, historical classics; 2) The distribution type of characteristic towns in Zhejiang Province is agglomeration on the geographic space; 3) The species about high-end equipment manufacturing and tourism have a large number, and their layout is scattered, however, the characteristic towns in information economy and finance types have a high concentration. 4) The distribution of characteristic towns are influenced by economic foundation, population density, innovation of industrial cluster, and urbanization. Some notable features could be found when we observe the industrial structures of the characteristic towns in Zhejiang, which seems to be a kind of echo to the economic structure of the areas, and also a window of new growth in economy and industry upgrading in Zhejiang.
以脆弱性理论为基础,提出传统村落景观脆弱性的概念,从“内损性-暴露性”2个维度构建传统村落景观脆弱性定量评价指标体系,通过实地踏勘、文献查阅、问卷调查和访谈等方法获取数据,对湖南省新田县的3个典型传统村落进行定量评价。结果表明：① 3个案例村落的景观脆弱度均为中等脆弱等级：谭文溪村脆弱性最大,河山岩村次之,黑砠岭村脆弱性最小。② 从脆弱度得分贡献来看,系统内部结构是影响传统村落脆弱性的主要驱动因素,暴露性是次要因素。内部结构因素中,民俗文化和传统建筑是主因;外部扰动因素中,旅游开发是主因。③ 从各要素的相对脆弱率看,民俗文化、旅游开发和城镇化分列前3位,是当前传统村落脆弱性最明显、脆弱程度最深的影响因素。④ 评价结果与实际情况比较吻合,说明评价指标体系和评价方法具有一定的可信度。
Assessment of vulnerability is a new perspective and method of traditional village comprehensive research. Based on vulnerability theories, this article puts forward the concept of the fragility of traditional village landscape. The quantitative evaluation index system of landscape vulnerability in traditional villages was constructed from the two dimensions of internal damage and exposure. And the datum are obtained by spot-surveying, literature searching, questionnaires and interviews, etc. Through the quantitative method, evaluating three typical traditional villages in Xintian County, Hunan Province. The results show that the landscape vulnerability of the three case villages is medium vulnerability level, and disparities are not large. Among them, Tan Wenxi village is the most vulnerable, the Heshan rock village is the second, and the Heijuling village the least. In the course of vulnerability score contribution, the internal structure of the system is the main driving factor affecting the vulnerability of traditional villages, and the exposure is the secondary factor. In the internal structural factors, folk culture and traditional architecture are the main factors. Among the external disturbance factors tourism development is the main factor. From the relative vulnerability rate of each element, folklore culture, tourism development and urbanization are the top three factors, which show these three elements are the most obvious vulnerability of traditional villages. The evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation, and all of this indicates the evaluation index system and evaluation method have certain credibility and can provide important management basis for the protection and sustainable discovery of traditional villages.
在界定上海高新技术产业和行业分类的基础上,基于上海市科委高技术企业年报系统数据,运用结构方程模型分析方法,比较分析了生物医药产业、电子信息产业、新材料产业和高新技术改造传统产业4类高新技术产业创新网络形成过程中的影响因子、影响路径及影响机制。结果表明：① 高新技术企业创新网络形成过程中主要受到企业规模、企业发展阶段和企业影响力等因子的核心影响,且为正向促进作用;② 高新技术产业不同行业创新网络的影响因子存有较大差异,如政府干预因子对新材料产业创新结网影响较大,且通过投入创新活动资金的形式干预创新网络构建,但对其他产业创新结网影响相对较小;③ 所有制、空间区位和中介服务等影响因子对高新技术企业创新结网的影响均较小,甚至不产生作用。通过4个高新技术产业创新网络影响因子的实证分析,总结归纳了高新技术企业创新结网的形成机制。
Innovation cooperation has been the common innovation model of innovative firms. Innovation model of firms has experienced technology promotion mode, demand-driven mode, interactive mode, and comprehensive mode, now has entered the fifth generation of innovation network centered mode, which is the leading direction of innovation research in the future. Influence factors, influencing path and influencing mechanism of biomedical industry, electronic information industry, new material industry and equipment manufacturing of Shanghai high-tech industry were analyzed based on the concept definition of Shanghai high-tech industry, the industry classification, and the data of high-tech firm annual report of Shanghai Science and Technology Commission. The results show that, firstly, in firm development stage, firm scale and firm influence are the main factors of innovation network, and play positive roles; Secondly, the role of government intervention in new material industry is the largest, the role in other industries is relatively small and mainly works through the investment of innovation activities, to intervene innovation network construction; Thirdly, the role of firm ownership, space location and intermediary service in the innovation network of four industries is relatively small. Through the comparative analysis of influencing factors of four industry innovation networks, this paper summarizes the impact mechanism of the innovation network of high-tech firms in Shanghai.
Functional transformation of traditional villages is an emergent property resulting from internal and external factors of villages. Internal factors refers to villager’ s self-organization transformation from down to up, while external factors are mostly guiding and regulating of other-organization which is centering on government from up to down. Self-organization embodied that villagers are main body, and they are advancing functional transformation and spatial restructuring of traditional villages by bottom-up autonomous actions. Other-organization is mainly contains government, enterprise, nongovernmental organizations, etc. They carried out functional transformation of traditional villages from top to down by policy guidance, spatial planning, and industrial distribution. In short, several factors such as the harmony between self-organization and other-organization, co-traction of internal and external factors, interactions of settlement spatial elements all promote the functional transformation and spatial restructuring of traditional villages. Traditional villages encounter the double pressures of functional transformation and spatial restructuring in the process of rapid urbanization. Taking Zhangguying village as example, this paper explores the general situation of traditional village’s functional transformation and implementation path of traditional villages’ spatial restructuring. The results show that from the point of functional transformation, Zhangguying village is undergoing the changes of life style from tradition to modernization. Also, it is experiencing function conversion from agriculture to tourism and traditional spatial function to multi-function. In the view of spatial development, the spatial structure of Zhangguying village has undergone three evolution stages, i.e. slowly growth, rapid expansion and orderly jump. Zhangguying village is facing with a series of problems, such as village culture conflicts, hollow settlement, decaying road system and extensive land use. Finally, this paper constructed the regulation mechanism of rural settlement functional transformation which integrates four levels such as visual level, functional level, planning level and objective level. We should be aware of the facts that sustainable development of traditional villages in China is booming. Traditional villages in different regions are found largely different in the development background, core dynamics and reconfiguration ways. Consequently, it requires the academic staff to conduct constant and thorough investigations and research, then summarize general rules and special paths to promote sustainable development of traditional villages in China.
阐述主要粮食作物的时空格局变化特征,对中国粮食安全决策意义重大。基于河北省县市近15 a (2001~2015年）的农业数据资料,采用分段线性趋势以及生产指标-产量波动系数来分析河北省主要粮食作物的时空变化特征,并对河北省粮食作物进行安全评价。结果表明：从产量与播种面积来看,近15 a河北省主要粮食作物变化趋势经历了由波动减少到稳步增长2个阶段,且变化趋势显著;从空间格局变化来看,大致呈由南向北逐渐递减的规律分布,其中不同农作物分布规律各有差异;从粮食安全方面来看,河北省70%以上年份粮食波动系数均超过中国粮食安全平均水平,粮食波动系数较高,粮食安全风险较大;但从人均粮食产量来看,安全程度相对比较乐观,粮食安全状况渐趋于平稳。研究可为河北省粮食生产时空布局的优化、结构调整与社会经济协调发展提供依据。
It is of great significance to clarify the characteristics of temporal and spatial patterns of grain crops in china.Based on the agricultural data of Hebei province in the past 15 years (2001-2015), this paper uses the segment linear trend and the production index-output fluctuation coefficient to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of the main grain crops in Hebei Province, and food security in hebei province is evaluated.The results show that the trend of the main grain crop in Hebei Province has experienced two periods from fluctuation to steady growth in the past 15 years, and the trend of change is significant. From the point of view of the change of spatial pattern, the law of the gradual decline from south to north shows that the distribution of different crops is different; From the point of view of food security, the grain fluctuation coefficient of more than 70% in Hebei Province exceeded the national average level, the grain fluctuation coefficient was bigger and the food security risk was higher. However, from the perspective of per capital grain production, the safety level is relatively optimistic, food security situation is becoming stable. This study can provide the basis for the optimization of grain and material production in Hebei Province, the structural adjustment and the coordinated development of social economy.
将中国省级行政区作为分析单元,以旅游资源开发、旅游产业质量、社会系统支持、公共服务投入、生态环境质量五大子系统构建旅游经济系统失配度评价指标体系,对旅游经济失配度进行系统评价和空间格局测度,并用多元回归模型分析影响因素。研究发现：① 中国省级行政区旅游经济失配呈现极差化与相对差异较大的特点,广东省为失配度最低区、宁夏回族自治区为失配度最高区;② 2015年中国旅游经济失配以低度失配为主,主要影响因素有旅游资源丰富度、旅游劳动生产率、等级公路网密度、互联网普及率、森林覆盖率等;③ 旅游经济系统失配空间分异的主要机制：旅游资源禀赋与开发质量是基础动力,旅游市场经济环境是直接动力,旅游目的地公共服务质量是外在动力。
The optimal allocation of tourism economic system is the ideal state of regional tourism economic development. This article takes China’s provincial-level administrative regions as the analysis unit. Constructing index system of mismatch evaluation of tourism economic system based on five major subsystems of tourism resources development, tourism industry quality, social system support, investment in public services and ecological environment quality in order to systematically evaluate the mismatch degree of tourism economy and measure the spatial pattern. In addition, use multiple regression model to analyze influential factors. The study found that: in the first place, on spatial pattern of China's provincial administrative region, mismatch of tourism economy is poor and the relative difference in characteristics. Guangdong province, located on the southeast coast, is the lowest degree of mismatch, whereas the inland Ningxia Hui autonomous region is the highest degree of mismatch in all provinces. Secondly, in terms of mismatch types, China's tourism economic mismatch in 2015 was dominated by low mismatch. Furthermore, the main factors that cause the mismatch include tourism resource richness, tourism labor productivity, grade highway network density, Internet penetration rate, forest coverage rate, etc. At last, the main mechanism of spatial disparity in the formation of tourism economic system includes three aspects, that is to say, the basic motivation of tourism resources endowment and development quality, the direct motivation tourism market economy environment, and the external motivation tourism destination public service quality.
A research on tourists’ intention to exhibit environmental behavior based on subjective psychological perspective has great theoretic value and practical significance. Based on the theory of public environmental behavior ‘Value-Belief- Norm Theory’ (VBN) and the ‘Theory of Planned Behavior’ (TPB), this article constructs the influencing factors model of tourists’ environmental behavior intention combined the characteristics of tourism activities. Xixi National Wetland Park in Hangzhou is taken as a case, and the structural equation model (SEM) is employing for data analysis and model validation. The results show that: 1) the intention of tourists' environmental behavior is influenced by the specific environmental attitude, perceived behavior control and the tourism destination image. Among them, the effect of specific environmental attitude is the most prominent, the perceived behavior control is the second, and the tourism destination image is the weakest; 2) Subjective norm acts as a mediator of tourists’ specific environmental attitudes and perceived behavioral control affected by environmental value; 3) The factor of tourism image affect the specific environmental attitude and the tourists’ environmental behavior intention directly. Whether the tourists have the intention to exhibit environmental protective behavior will directly depend on their cognition of the environmental attributes of the tourist sites, the difficulty of implementing environmental behavior and the inherent image of the tourist sites in their minds. And the research result of Xixi Wetland show that stimulating tourists’ specific environmental attitudes can effectively promote tourists’ environmental behavior intention. At the same time, reducing the perceived behavior control is also an effective way. Tourist sites can set up some activities guide tourists’ environmental behavior intention. This study also provides an effective explanation for the implementation of public environmental education. However, the study of tourists’ environmental behavior intention still needs further analysis.
在分析城镇化对旅游业成长响应与机理基础上,从人口、产业和就业3个要素入手,重构“旅游城镇化响应系数”,构建响应测度模型,将旅游城镇化响应划分为4个阶段,利用张家界1989~2015年统计数据,剖析旅游城镇化的总体特征、阶段性特征以及空间特征,并从静态和动态分析其影响机制。结果显示： 自张家界建市以来,旅游城镇化响应系数呈现稳步上升趋势,并呈现出阶段性变化特征。 张家界两个市辖区的旅游城镇化响应强度有所差异,总的来说两者的响应强度都处于增长态势,但武陵源的响应强度大于永定区,而永定区的增长速度快于武陵源区。 从静态看,旅游城镇化响应强度的影响因素主要有区域经济发展水平、旅游产业集聚程度、交通通达度、城镇居民可支配收入、第三产业增加值以及区域投资强度;其中,城镇居民可支配收入、旅游产业集聚程度、人均固定资产投资以及交通通达度与城镇化响应系数呈现正相关;人均GDP和第三产业增加值与旅游城镇化响应系数呈现负相关。 从动态看,各因素对旅游城镇化的影响程度不同,排序为：旅游产业集聚>城镇居民可支配收入>人均GDP>人均年末通车里程>第三产业增加值>人均固定资产投资额。
The tourism industry and the urbanization are important for the development of regional economic. Based on the analysis of the urbanization response to tourism and mechanism, the article introduced the concept of “Response Intensity of Tourism Urbanization”. Employing the 3 elements: population, industry and employment, the article established effect coefficient of tourism urbanization, constructed the model of response measurement and divided the development of tourism urbanization into 4 stages. Using the statistical data of Zhangjiajie from 1989 to 2015, the overall characteristics, staged characteristics and spatial characteristics of tourism urbanization were analyzed, involving static and dynamic analysis of its impact mechanism. The results show that, since the city was founded, the response coefficient of tourism urbanization has shown a steady upward trend and the characteristics of periodic changes. In terms of the tourism urbanization in two municipal districts of Zhangjiajie, the response intensity varies. Generally speaking, the response intensity of both cities is growing, but the response intensity of Wulingyuan is greater than that of Yongding district, and the growth rate of Yongding district is faster than that of Wulingyuan district. From the static point of view, the factors that impact the response intensity of tourism urbanization can be elaborated as follows: regional economic development level, the degree of tourist industry agglomeration, the degree of traffic accessibility, the disposable income of urban residents, the added value of the tertiary industry and the intensity of regional investment. Among them, the urban residents' disposable income, the degree of tourism industry agglomeration, per capita fixed asset investment, and the degree of transportation accessibility are positively correlated with the urbanization response coefficient; Per capita GDP and the added value of tertiary industry are negatively correlated with the response coefficient of tourism urbanization. From the dynamic perspective, the impact of various factors on tourism urbanization is different, ranking as follows: tourism industry agglomeration, urban residents’ disposable income, per capita GDP, per capita year-end open to traffic mileage, tertiary industry added value, per capita fixed assets investment.
Isolated wetland is an important part of the wetlands. Isolated wetland is a kind of main types of wetland with distinctive hydrological, habitat and geochemical cycle functions in itself, which is prominent gradually in the development of human society. Because of climate change and human activity, the area and amount of isolated wetlands increasingly decreases resulting in that its functions are impacted seriously. There has been some research on the definition, type and characteristics of isolated wetlands, but the study to isolated wetland functions is relatively weak, and it is premise to isolated wetland protection and restoration. The research of the definition“isolated wetland”was conducted abroad earlier, but now according to extensive practice and summary, its definition is that the formed wetland is short of relative connection to other water bodies and is isolated in landscape under the joint action of geological factor, climate factor and human interference factor. The types of isolated wetlands in China are called “Annular Wetlands”, “Dish-Like Depression”, “Fragmented Wetlands” and so forth. Therefore, there are a lot of unkown problems in the definitions, types and characteristics of isolated wetlands researches. There are theoretical and practical defects in legislative protection, effective restoration and urban isolated wetlands research at home and abroad. In wetland conservation, most countries have strict legislation to protect the wetland landscape, but they do not regard the isolated wetlands as the objects of protection. In the restoration process, most scholars are lack of the knowledge about restoration techniques leading to that isolated wetlands cannot be effectively protected and restored. The research focus of urban isolated wetlands is different in different countries and regions, and its research methods and system are not perfect lacking of innovation and application. Based on extensive literature research, this paper summarizes the prospect of study on isolated wetland functions from functions of hydrology, habitat and geochemical cycle and so on as well as the relationship among each function, analyzes the problem in study about isolated wetland functions and puts forward that the research on the trend of isolated wetland functions should from focuing on the research and evaluation of the unique functions of isolated wetlands, Strengthening isolated wetland protection and its system construction, improving the recovery theory, technology and construction methods of isolated wetlands and promoting innovation and practical application of research methods on urban isolated wetlands. Especially the constructed or urban wetlands have been the key parts of wetland science researches, from the extensive study, the already known ideas about isolated wetlands functions tend to be applied to more and more important wetland engineering for wetland sustianable development. It can offer scientific reference to wetland restoration, protection and management.
In this study, to reveal the sub-cloud evaporation and influence factors on it, precipitation events were collected from January 2010 to December 2012, with the corresponding meteorological parameters, that is, amount of precipitation, air temperature and humidity measured in the Dongting Lake Basin, which located in the subtropical monsoon region. It is found that the theoretical slope of the meteoric water lines in different seasons are higher than the observed slope of the meteoric water lines, respectively, and it can be concluded that the raindrops formed in the basin have experienced evaporation during falling. Further calculations show that the evaporation rate of raindrops is between 0.21% to 19.29%, falling by 1.0%, and deuterium excess decreases by 1.38‰. As temperature, humidity and raindrop diameter are the main factors that affect evaporation of the falling raindrops, we found that the evaporation of the raindrops have significant positive correlation with the temperature, and significant negative correlation with the relative humidity and raindrop diameter. In addition, the evaporation of raindrops decreases exponentially with the increase of precipitation amount in the basin, that doesn’t illustrate precipitation amount’s affect, but the result of humidity and raindrop diameter.
The Bailongjiang watershed, located in the transitional ecotone among the Loess Plateau, Qinba Mountains and Tibet Plateau, a vital water conservation areas and ecological environment fragile areas in the upper Yangtze River with frequency geohazards, conflict between human and nature, was chosen as the study area to analyze the spatiotemporal change and driving factors of the landscape fragmentation. Based on landscape pattern index, principal component analysis, GeoDetector and platforms of GIS and RS, the spatio-temporal change and driving factors of the landscape fragmentation were quantitatively analyzed in Bailongjiang watershed of Gansu Province from 1990 to 2014. The results showed that: 1) The change regularity of landscape pattern indices showed that the degree of landscape fragmentation increased firstly and then decreased from 1990 to 2014. To be specific, Edge Density(ED) and Shannon’s Diversity Index(SHDI) of the watershed showed the trend of increase firstly and then decrease, which indicated that the landscape of the watershed developed from irregularity to regularity in edge shape and the diversity of landscape types enhanced firstly and then weakened. Contagion Index(CONTAG) of the watershed showed the situation of decreased firstly and then increased, which suggested that reunion degree of different patch types changed from weak to strong, the higher the CONTAG, the better connectivity, otherwise, there were more small patches, representing higher fragmentation. Landscape Division Index (DIVISION) showed a slight downward trend. 2) In general, landscape fragmentation is affected by human activities, and counties or districts scale can better reflect human activities. The scale analysis of counties or districts showed that the degree of landscape fragmentation increased dramatically in Wenxian and Wudu during 1990-2002 and decreased significantly in Wenxian during 2002-2014. 3) Landscape fragmentation degree of the southeastern watershed (mainly in Wenxian and Wudu) enhanced firstly and then weakened and the variation tendency was most intense and complicated. 4) Taking 2014 as an example, this article explored the driving factors of landscape fragmentation based on GeoDetector. The outcome of ecological detector deemed that there were striking differences between land use types and elevation, slope, and aspect, and so did human activities intensity, nevertheless, land use types and human activities intensity had no difference, which illustrated that human disturbance (i.e. land use types and human activities intensity) and topographic factors (i.e. elevation, slope and aspect ) had different effects on the spatial differentiation of landscape fragmentation. Moreover, the result of factor detector showed that human disturbance had the highest ability to explain the spatial differentiation of landscape fragmentation which meant human interference was the momentous driving factor. Finally, the result of interaction detector showed that the interaction between human activities intensity and elevation had the strongest influence on landscape fragmentation, followed by the interaction with land use types. The study aims to provide theoretical support for sustainable development in Bailongjiang watershed of Gansu Province.
基于中国天山地区35个气象站点1960~2015年逐日最高、最低气温实测资料,应用Mann-Kendall趋势检验分析法, 空间分析法等研究了极端气温的时空变化特征,并探讨了气温指数的环流背景因素。结果表明：① 近56 a来,年平均最高、最低气温均呈上升趋势,而日较差呈下降趋势; 暖指数和日最低(高)气温极小值均呈上升趋势,而其他冷指数呈减小趋势;从季节变化看,除暖昼、暖夜之外,大部分气温指数的冬季变暖幅度均明显高于夏季。② 空间分布上,天山山区年平均最低气温和日较差以及大部分冷指数的变暖幅度大于南北坡,而暖指数则表现为南坡大于北坡和山区。③ 高温和低温指数变化幅度表现出明显不对称性变化,年平均最低温的变暖幅度明显大于年平均最高温,冷指数变暖幅度大于暖指数,夜指数变暖幅度显著大于昼指数。④ 天山地区年平均最高(低)气温和极端气温冷指数受环流指数北极涛动(AO)、北大西洋涛动(NAO)和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的影响较大,而北太平洋涛动(NPO)、东亚夏季风(EASMI)、南亚夏季风(SASMI)和南海夏季风(SCSMI)是暖指数变化的重要因素。
Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature data from the 35 stations (1960-2015) in over Tianshan Mountains area (TMA), using the methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall trend analysis as well as correlation analysis to analyze the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of extreme temperature and the influence of 8 atmospheric circulation index. The results show that: 1) Nearly 56 years, the annual mean maximum(minimum) temperatures have significantly increased and monthly minimum value of daily minimum (maximum) temperature shows obviously increased, while the occurrence of diurnal temperature range and cold spell duration days, frost days, ice days, cold nights and cold days has decreased. From the seasonal dynamics, excepting warm day and warm night, the warming magnitudes of most temperature indices in winter are obviously higher than those in summer. 2) For the spatial distribution, the warming magnitude of annual mean minimum temperature diurnal temperature range and most indices of cold extremes in Tianshan Mountains are greater than those in northern and southern Tianshan Mountains, while the indices of warm extremes in the southern Tianshan Mountains have a greater magnitude than other areas. 3) The changes of warm and cold temperature indices are asymmetrical, the magnitude of changes in the annual mean minimum temperatures is obviously greater than the annual mean maximum temperatures, the magnitude of changes in cold extremes are obviously greater than that of warm indices. The rangeability of night indices are larger than those of daily indices. 4) AO, NAO and ENSO are the main factors causing the extreme temperature of the annual mean maximum (minimum) temperatures and cold indices in the TMA, while NPO, EASMI, SASMI and SCSMI are the main factors affecting most of the warm indices.
The red weathering crust of Shicao profile and Chengshantou profile in the southern of Liaoning Province is studied by studying variation characteristics of elements, geochemical index, in order to reveal its geochemical characteristics. Based on analyzed the Neogene red weathering crusts in the southern Liaoning, the climatic and sea level changes were discussed. All the samples of the red weathering crust were analyzed for major geochemical elements by X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometry. The concentrations of major geochemical elements of the red weathering crust profile shows irregular change from the bottom to the top. By geochemical analyses, the profile has the characteristics of sedimentation type. SiO2、Al2O3 and Fe2O3 are the three main parts in the red weathering crusts. The content of SiO2 ranged from 49.41%-60.02%, mean average is 54.44%. The content of Al2O3 profile ranged from 18.61%-26.48%, mean average is 22.57%. The content of Fe2O3 in profile ranged from 5.92%-10.79%, mean average is 8.30%. The ratios of SiO2/Al2O3 ranged from 3.19%-4.99%, mean average is 4.15%. The ratios of SiO2/R2O3 ranged from 2.53%-4.21%, mean average is 3.37%. Based on analyzed SiO2/Al2O3, SiO2/R2O3 and the concentrations of major geochemical elements, the red weathering crusts were developed under high temperature and high humidity condition. Calculation the thickness of weathering crust and compare with the weathering crust of Shandong MiaoDao, it is believed that the formation time of this weathering crust should be Pliocene or earlier. According to the remaining height of the weathered crust of Chengshantou profile in the coastal area, the sea level today is close to the highest sea level of the southern of Liaoning province since late neogene. The remaining height of the weathered crust of Chengshantou profile in the coastal area can be used as the symbol of the highest sea level of the southern of Liaoning Province since the formation of the red weathering crust.