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  • 地理科学
      2015年, 第35卷, 第5期 刊出日期:2015-05-20 上一期    下一期
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    中国GDP偏离度的空间计量经济分析
    张建伟,苗长虹,姜海宁
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 515-520.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.515
    摘要   HTML   PDF (512KB)

    采用突变级数法、ESDA及空间计量经济模型对1985~2012年中国GDP的偏离度的时空差异进行了研究,结果发现:① 除2009年外,自1998年来中国GDP偏离度一直在不断增加,国家政策及全球经济运行状况对其有重要影响;② 2012年和2009年相比,GDP偏离度空间格局变动不大,长三角、京津冀及中部地区一直是偏离度较大的区域;③ 空间相互作用是中国GDP偏离度拉大的重要原因;④ GDP总量、建筑业及固定资产投资总额对中国GDP偏离度具有重要影响;⑤ 能耗及GDP速度对GDP偏离度产生负向作用,主要是由其发展阶段决定的。


    China′s GDP deviation degree is studied by Catastrophe progression method, ESDA and spatial econometric model from 1985 to 2012. Five conclusions are arrived as follows: 1) Except for 2009, since 1998 China′s GDP deviation degree had been increasing, the national policy and the global economic situation has important influence on the China's GDP deviation degree; 2) Compared to 2009, the spatial pattern of GDP deviation degree has almost no change in 2012, the regions which have been greater deviation degree were the Changjiang River Delta, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and central regions; 3) Spatial interaction is the important reason of China's GDP deviation degree widening; 4) The total GDP, the construction industry and the total investment in fixed assets has a significant impact on China's GDP deviation; 5) Energy consumption and speed of GDP have negative effects on China's GDP deviation degree, mainly by the development stage decision.

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    中国-东盟自贸区城市群空间经济关联研究——基于社会网络分析法的视角
    梁经伟,文淑惠,方俊智
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 521-528.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.521
    摘要   HTML   PDF (668KB)

    从城市群的角度运用社会网络分析法对中国-东盟自贸区空间经济联系进行研究,首先从度、入度、出度3个角度对自贸区内的44个城市建立网络模型分析城市之间的复杂关系。其次对网络图进行中心度分析,判断城市的经济辐射范围,基于核心-边缘理论对自贸区内44个城市划分。最后利用派系过滤算法对城市网络图进行社团结构分析,利用K-plex算法进行凝聚子群分析。分析结果表明自贸区内城市之间存在密切的联系,核心城市群与边缘城市群圈层明显;同时中国在自贸区内扮演着重要角色,带动国家经济关系建设,促进区域经济的繁荣发展。


    As a link among spatial economics, city agglomeration plays an important role in the flowing of regional elements and the growth of economy. This thesis focuses on the study of spatial economic relations on CAFTA by using social network analysis from the perspective of city agglomeration. Firstly, this thesis establishes a network model with CAFTA of 44 cities to analyze the complex relationship among cities from aspects of degree, in-degree and out-degree. The visual network diagram shows interdependencies between China and ASEAN cities, which Shanghai, Singapore, Hong Kong and other cities in the central position of the network and radiating other cities, however, Luang prabang and Battambang cities on the verge of a network, isolation. Secondly, Palla filtering algorithm was used to analyze the community structure of CAFTA, and the K-plex algorithm for cohesive subgroup analysis. According to all of the above analysis, it shows the close relationship between CAFTA among cities. And it is obvious that the core urban agglomeration and the edge of the urban agglomeration have many differences. It also reflects that southeast and southwest cities are very important to contact ASEAN countries, such as Shanghai, Singapore, Kunming, etc. In a word, China also plays a leading role in driving national economic constructions and promoting the prosperity of the regional economic development. With the analysis on space of the urban economic relationship, this thesis provides a new thought on creating upgraded CAFTA.

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    基于A-T-R的旅游小城镇分类、评价与发展模式研究
    陶慧,刘家明,朱鹤,李玏,王磊
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 529-536.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.529
    摘要   HTML   PDF (583KB)

    在科学界定旅游小城镇基础上,梳理旅游小城镇的分类标准,确立一类基于核心吸引物(A)—小镇(T)—乡村环境(R)的新分类方法,将旅游小城镇分为AT一体、AT分离、A+T+R联动与ATR创意再造4种类型。结合旅游小城镇发展中的实际状态,依据A、T、R三类初始条件不同组合情况提炼出六大旅游小城镇的发展模式,为旅游小城镇深层次研究提供参考和依据,进一步推动旅游小城镇的健康发展。


    As the world’s largest sunrise industry based on its comprehensive effects in the industry, employment, ecological, cultural, and other aspects, tourism has become a new growth point of new urbanization development. The upgrade of tourism industry not only increases the demand, but also leads tourism space to expand, and many small towns are gradually being discovered and developed, forming a distinctive tourist destination. It has become the current subject we face how to develop different types of tourism towns scientifically and rationally, build a reasonable resources evaluation system, explore tourism industry development model of small towns, optimize the space environment of tourism towns. However, due to the lack of scientific theoretical guidance, disorderly development and the same model among thousands of towns, many sorts of practical problems appear such as deterioration of the ecological environment, decreasing of traditional rural culture and native landscape, and the loss of community residents’ right to speak. By summarizing the existing literature, we found a large number of domestic research focused on the exploration research and case studies ones, but universal research is relatively weak. There are multiple views in the concept, type, sort, resources combing, and the selection of region development model, which includes a certain bias. Based on the scientific definition of tourism towns, this article has combed a classification criteria of tourism towns, established a new classification method based on the core attraction(A)-Town(T)-Rural(R); through which the tourism towns can be divided into four categories : integration of A and T, separation of A and T, linkages of "A+T+R" and recreation of "A+T+R". This article proposed 8 main categories, 33 sub-categories, 144 subcategories of small towns with two-factor classification of tourism resources evaluation system based on the whole realm of creative resources viewpoint. Based on the actual need of tourism towns development, combined with different combinations of three types of initial conditions, i. e. "attraction, urban infrastructure, environmental background", we can define the six major development model of tourism towns to provide reference and basis for in-depth study of tourism towns, and promote the healthy development of tourism towns".

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    环渤海“C型”经济区经济格局的空间演变研究
    尹鹏,李诚固
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 537-543.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.537
    摘要   HTML   PDF (726KB)

    利用空间自相关指数、经济平均增长指数和空间变差函数,分析1990年以来环渤海“C型”经济区经济格局的空间演变特征。结果表明:经济发展呈现显著空间自相关,高-高、低-低集聚度不断提高,京津唐都市圈、沈大经济带和山东半岛城市群成为经济发展的热点集中区,其他内陆县市和省际邻接地区是冷点集中区;经济增长空间集聚,高增长率转化快,热点区跃迁特征明显,1990~2000年呈不规则的团块状零散分布,2000~2010年呈带状集中分布于辽西北,省内经济差异不断缩小,而省际经济差异逐渐增大;经济发展的结构化分异显著,空间自组织性增强,大城市的辐射作用减弱,以东部沿海为中心,向周边多峰值递减,西南与西北内陆始终处于低谷。最后,从区域战略政策、经济产业基础、区位与交通条件探讨经济格局演化的驱动机制。


    Taking the “C-typed” economic region along the Bohai Rim as a study case, GDP per capita as the measuring indicator, this article used the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), semivariogram function, Kriging spatial interpolation and the software of ArcGIS10.0 and GeoDA to study the spatial evolution of economic pattern at the level of county in1990, 2000 and 2010. Then, driving factors of the spatial evolution of economic pattern were deeply discussed. Conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) At the overall spatial economic framework, the economic development of “C-typed” economic region along the Bohai Rim shows a strong trend of spatial autocorrelation, and the patterns of high-high and low-low agglomeration are inclined to get strengthened continuously. The hotspots of economic development are centralized in the regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Area, Shenyang-Dalian economic belt and Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomerations, and the coldspots clusters in the inland and provincial boundary regions. The hotspot counties have been decreased remarkably, and coldspot counties are decreased first and increased afterward. 2) The economic growth also shows a strong trend of spatial autocorrelation, and the hotspot areas switch quickly, from scatter to concentration. The high values migrate to northwest of Liaoning Province, and low values center are on Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Area, middle and south of Hebei Province in 2000-2010. The economic disparities of inside province are decreasing, and the inter-provincial economic disparities are gradually increasing. 3) According to the space-time mechanism, the spatial economic framework of “C-typed” economic region along the Bohai Rim tends to be more continuous and self-organized, and the random of the spatial differential pattern keeps decreasing, taking east coast as center. The homogeneousness of economic development in the east-west direction is typical for its relatively small spatial difference. As to the south-north, northeast-southwest and southeast-northwest direction, the spatial economic differences are great; and the radiation function of big cities obviously is weakening. Finally, 3 driving forces of economic framework evolvement in “C-typed” economic region along the Bohai Rim have been drawn: regional policies, economic and industrial foundation, location and traffic conditions. Generally speaking, the spatial evolution of economic pattern is complicate system engineering, and promoting the regional integration is also very long at the same time, therefore, some efforts should be made in the choices of index, methods and scale in the future.

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    文化转型对地方意义流变的影响——以深圳华侨城空间文化生产为例
    梁增贤,保继刚
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 544-550.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.544
    摘要   HTML   PDF (520KB)

    以深圳华侨城为例,以地方命名和广告文本为分析对象,通过改革开放以来地方意义的建构及其流变过程和特征的分析,讨论文化转型对地方意义流变的影响。研究指出,文化转型期产生多股文化时尚。地方政府和开发商借助空间想象化,透过建筑名称、形式、结构、景观、生活方式和社会网络等符号和关系的文化生产,并配合空间物质性建设,赋予地方新的文化意义,构筑符合主流社会阶层和时代菁英的想象的社区。在此过程中,空间的文化生产是在某一时期以某种文化时尚为主流,其他文化共同参与,而地方意义可能呈现多元性。空间文化生产与再生产方式具有多样性,在某一时期某种文化生产方式占主导,其他方式共同发挥作用,导致地方意义形式的多样性。同一时期地方意义所呈现的复合性和多种形式可能满足了不同时代菁英多元的文化认同。


    Place can serve as a template for examining the contemporary cultural dynamics of socioeconomic transformation and restructuring, and the culture has important influences on place construction and becoming. However, in the earlier studies, the culture impacts in the process of place becoming received inadequate treatment. Modern China is now undergoing a rapid and dramatic socioeconomic transformation which can be understood as cultural transformation essentially. Meanwhile, place is continue becoming due to the rapid urbanization and urban renewal in the past decade. The relationship between place becoming and cultural transformation embodies a concentrated reflection of the impact mechanism of changing cultural fashions on cultural production of place. This article aims to explore the impacts of cultural transformations on place becoming, especially focus on how cultural transformation can construct and change the cultural implications of place. This article, using Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town (OCT) as a case study, examines the changing names and advertising texts to deconstruct the transformation process and characteristic of cultural implications of place. It is oun that the changing culture fashions are the characteristic of the cultural transformation in modern China since the asynchronization and occasionality in the values and lifestyle changing, materiality redevelopment and subject consciousness representation. The local government and the developers employ the notion of spatial imagineering, and select the meanings fit to the culture fashions to construct a place, with the help of physical space (re)construction. The name, structure and form of the architecture, the landscape, the lifestyle and the social network show the new changing meanings of place. In this process: 1) Each place has one dominant culture in the cultural production of space at one time, while the non-mainstream cultures can also play roles in place becoming. The implications of place are from multiple cultures. 2) There are also many ways in culture production of place. When one way is the mainstream, the others will be non-mainstream. 3) The cultural and meanings diversity of a place make it more difference and attractive, and cater to the changing needs of mainstream social classes in different culture fashions. When an urban community can show multiple meanings from different cultures and multiple ways of culture production, it can be a mixed community where people preferring different culture fashions and from different classes can live together and harmoniously.

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    中国城市空间反增长联盟的新特征——基于昆明市“94号院”的实证分析
    曾文,吴启焰,张小林,向梨丽
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 551-557.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.551
    摘要   HTML   PDF (533KB)

    以昆明市“94号院”为案例解构其中城市政体上层建筑,并对各方利益集团的相互关系进行详细分析。结果表明:中国城市政体具有连续性的特点,即增长联盟与反增长联盟之间并不是泾渭分明的关系,而是一个渐变的连续统,增长联盟内部也是连续变化的。同时,中国城市政体亦具有尺度性特征,即地理尺度越大,增长联盟与反增长联盟之间的分歧就越大,二者态度越鲜明,二元论愈显化,反增长联盟更能得到第三方的支持,在双方博弈中的话语权越大;尺度越小,二者态度越模糊,增长联盟具有更多的规则制定优势,更具有主导和优先权;同时,为了在博弈中获得更大话语权,尺度变迁成为双方关注的焦点,反增长联盟力求上推尺度,而增长联盟则尽力下压尺度。


    This article takes the “No. 94 yard” in Kunming as an example and deconstructs the superstructure of the urban regime in it, then analyzes the mutual relations of each political economic group in the area of urban development. The anti-growth coalition in this case has successfully held back the growth strategy of the local growth coalition via the organized and multifaceted resistance, which indicates that the anti-growth coalition in China has developed and even matured in some way. The results show that the urban regime in this case presented two new features: 1) it has the feature of continuity, which demonstrates that the relation between the growth coalition and anti-growth coalition is not completely opposite, but forms a kind of cooperate-collide continuum, and it is continuously changing inside the growth coalition; 2) The urban regime also has the feature of scale. As the geographic scale becomes larger, the divergence between the growth coalition and anti-growth coalition gets greater, their attitudes are more entirely opposite, it is more inclined to dualism, and the anti-growth coalition would try to get more support from the third party so as to expand the discourse power in the competition; As the geographic scale becomes smaller, the attitudes of the two parties are vaguer, and the growth coalition gets more predominant and has more advantage of rule-making. And scale jumping becomes the focus of both sides, the anti-growth coalition strives to push up the scale, in contrast, the growth coalition tries hard to push down the scale.

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    首都圈人口空间分布优化策略——基于土地资源承载力估测
    彭文英,刘念北
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 558-564.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.558
    摘要   HTML   PDF (412KB)

    采用单项指标估测,分析了首都圈土地资源人口承载及其限制性,提出了人口空间分布优化策略。首都圈水资源及建设用地生态适宜量限制了人口承载能力,京津土地资源人口承载力已基本达到饱和,环京津的冀东、冀中地区承载潜力还较大,冀北地区应紧缩开发空间而拓展生态空间。首都圈土地资源开发利用及人口发展战略分区为:首都圈北部生态屏障建设区,人口限制发展;中部都市功能优化区,人口控制增长;东部人口产业沿海集聚区,人口鼓励增长;南部绿色空间优化区,人口适度增长。首都圈的健康发展,应实施差异化的土地利用及人口发展政策,整体提升人口承载力,并加大区域统筹力度,科学、合理地引导人口的空间分流和聚集。


    Relieving the pressure of megacities’central urban area is a hot issue on regional development and urban economy studies in our country, and it is an important national population development strategy to actively promote the economically developed urbanized area where the resources and environmental carrying capacity is strong to absorb and cluster population. Capital metropolitan region of China in this study, including Beijing and Tianjin municipalities and 7 cities in Hebei Province around Beijing, such as Baoding, Qinhuangdao, Langfang, Cangzhou, Chengde, Zhangjiakou and Tangshan. The resources and environment, population distribution, urban economy development level have obvious differences among cities. Therefore, it is of important theoretical and practical significance to study the population space distribution optimization on the basis of resources and environment carrying capacity of the metropolitan region. On the basis of land resources utilization and its population carrying capacity situation, by estimating the population carrying capacity of construction land and water resources and evaluating the population development restriction according to ecological suitability of construction lands, this article analyzes population carrying capacity of the land resources and its restriction in the capital metropolitan region, and proposes the strategy of population space distribution optimization. Research results indicate that: 1) the population density cascade in the capital metropolitan region is significantly different, core areas in Beijing and Tianjin have high population density; 2) The region with the largest population carrying capacity of land resources in the capital metropolitan region is in the east of Hebei Province around Beijing and Tianjin based on the estimation of constructional land index; 3) By evaluating the water resources condition, the population carrying capacity of water resources is limited. Although the utilization efficient of water resources is improved and water transfer project, population in Beijing and Tianjin basically reached saturation, and there are some potential in Hebei′s cities around Beijing and Tianjin. Based on the analysis of the limitations of the ecological suitability of construction land, population development in Beijing is limited, Tianjin has less potential, the eastern and central regions of Hebei province around Beijing and Tianjin have carrying capacity potential and the northern region should tighten exploit space and expand ecological space. Exploitation and utilization of land resources and population development strategy should be divided into the different areas. The development of population in the north of the capital circle, where is the ecological barrier, should be limited, Population growth in the central urban area should be controlled, population industry is gathering in the eastern coastal area where the growth in population be encouraged, and green space area in the south moderate population growth should be optimized. The promotion of population carrying capacity is limited to water resources and the ecological suitability of construction land in the capital metropolitan region. In order to scientifically promote the population carrying capacity development, effectively ease population pressure in core regions, we should focus on the whole capital metropolitan region, carry out different policies of land use and population development, establish the capital metropolitan region development coordination mechanism, strengthen the metropolitan development plan, enhance infrastructure planning, pay attention to the population growth development areas, carry out inclined development strategy, scientifically and reasonably guide population distribution and gather in the capital metropolitan region to enhance the overall population carrying capacity.

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    2000年以来东北地区城市化空间分异的时空演变分析
    甘静,郭付友,陈才,刘继生,李正
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 565-574.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.565
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    以东北地区34个地级市为研究对象,以四维一体为研究视角,综合构建了东北地区城市化测度指标体系,基于时序分析、面板分析以及空间分析等方法,分4个时期对2000年以来东北地区城市化空间分异的时空演变特征进行研究,结果表明:① 投资与消费是影响东北地区城市化发展的主要因素,其城市化兼有“自上而下”与“自下而上”双重性质;② 东北地区城市化尚处于低水平阶段,属于粗放式、低效益型的城市化发展模式;③ 东北地区城市化整体分异与子系统分异特征明显,2000~2008年阶段综合城市化水平由北向南递增,2008~2012年阶段则向南递减,与人口城市化具有一致性的变化特征。而经济城市化、社会城市化、空间城市化则逐年向南递增;④ 东北地区城市化水平东中西分异与沿海内陆分异特征显著,均具有时序性特点。基于研究成果,提出自然条件的基础作用、产业结构优化升级的内部驱动、交通条件的空间导向以及政策和体制的调控约束是东北地区城市化空间分异的整体机制,而东北地区南北城市化分异程度不断缩小主要由于区域发展阶段演进周期理论。


    Taking the 34 cities of the Northeast China as the research object, from the 4 dimensions, this article comprehensive built a new measurement index system of urbanization in the Northeast China. Based on temporal analysis, panel data analysis and spatial analysis methods, the article analyzed the evolution characteristics of urbanization spatial differentiation in the Northeast China since 2000. The results showed that: 1) Investment and consumption are the dominant forces for the urbanization in the Northeast China, but its urbanization had the dual natures which were the “top-down” and “bottom-up”; 2) The urbanization was still in the stage of low level, and its development pattern belonged to the vulgar, low efficiency; 3) The differentiation characteristics of urbanization were significant no matter what was the whole or the subsystem of urbanization, such as the whole urbanization was increasing from north to south from 2000 to 2008, descending from 2008 to 2012, which had the consistent change characteristics with the population urbanization and the distinct changeable characteristics with the economy urbanization, society urbanization, space urbanization; 4) The differentiation characteristics in both of the east-middle-west and between coastal and inland in Northeast China were obvious, and both of them had the scheduling characteristics. Finally, the article studied the mechanism of spatial differentiation of the urbanization in Northeast China, which included natural condition, the upgrading of the industrial structure, traffic conditions and the function of the government regulation and system constraints, and found that the differential degree of urbanization between the north region and the south region in the Northeast China is narrowing mainly due to the evolution cycle theory of regional development.

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    1990~2008年吉林省产业集群部门结构与空间组织特征
    周瀛,袁家冬
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 575-582.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.575
    摘要   HTML   PDF (443KB)

    吉林省作为东北老工业基地的重要组成部分,曾以雄厚的工业基础创造了稳固的经济地位,然而近年来,吉林省经济增长呈现出减缓态势,由此以来,如何利用产业集群增强对地区经济增长的促进作用,加速吉林省经济的快速发展引起广泛关注。以产业集聚为切入点,以吉林省产业统计数据为基础,采用部门结构偏离份额分析法和产业集聚度测算法,分析1990~2008年吉林省产业结构和集聚度变化特征。研究表明:①吉林省产业集群处于培育成长阶段;②省内各产业发展具备基础条件和竞争优势;③经济发展总体形成以长吉地区为核心的“十”字形空间格局。


    As an important part of the Northeast Old Industrial Base, Jilin Province once created a stable economic position based on a strong industrial foundation. However, in recent years, economic growth in Jilin Province showed a slowing trend, since thus, extensive attention has been put on in making use of industrial cluster on regional economic growth so as to accelerate the rapid development of economy of Jilin Province. This research made industrial cluster as a entry point, based on the statistical data of Jilin Province industry, used Shift-Share method and industrial cluster degree measurement to analyze the change characteristics of industrial structure and agglomeration degree of Jilin Province during the past 20 years. We found that: 1) Industrial cluster of Jilin Province was in a growth stage; 2) Each industry in Jilin Province has the basic conditions and competitive advantage, and there is biggish development space. Relying on the industrial park model increased more competitiveness to industrial development of Jilin Province; 3) The economic development overall form a “十” shape spatial patterns with the core of Changchun-Jilin Region. This article intended to put forward industrial cluster spatial organization structure of Jilin Province, so as to grasp the regional economic development rule and provide some references for the development of preponderant industrial cluster in Jilin Province.

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    城市绿色开放空间系统功能认知研究——以连云港市区为例
    王发曾,邱磊
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 583-592.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.583
    摘要   HTML   PDF (845KB)

    城市绿色开放空间系统具有生态调控、经济社会与文化景观等3项功能,可通过评价功能强度、测度满意程度与优化系统功能等分别实现学者、市民与政府对绿色开放空间系统功能的认知。三类认知构成了研究绿色开放空间系统功能的独特知识体系,为该系统的功能优化提供了执行线索,进而对加强生态城市建设、推动城市的可持续发展等产生积极而重要的影响。以连云港市区绿色开放空间系统为例,在评价功能强度、测度满意程度并对比分析二者异同的基础上,充分吸取学者与市民的意见,提出优化系统功能的方案。


    Urban green open space system has three functions, the ecological regulation function, economic-social function and cultural-landscape function. It is possible to achieve scholars′ cognitive through evaluating functional strength to achieve public cognitive through measuring functional satisfaction, and to achieve government′s cognitive through optimizing system functions. The three types of cognitive constitute a unique knowledge of green open space system functions, provide perform clues for the optimization of the system functions, and thus result in a positive and important impact for strengthening ecological city construction, and promoting urban sustainable development. Taking the urban green open space system of Lianyungang City as a case, this article evaluates functional strength of the system, measures functional satisfaction level to the system. On the basis of comparative analysis of both the similarities and differences, and the views of the scholars and the public, the article absorbs the proposed program to optimize system functionality.

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    传统村落景观基因在地方认同建构中的作用效应——以侗族村寨为例
    杨立国,刘沛林,林琳
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 593-598.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.593
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    将侗族传统村落景观基因识别为鼓楼、萨坛、围鼓楼布局、杉山溪田等的基础上,建构结构方程模型,通过对通道芋头、黎平肇兴、三江高定3个侗寨的272份调查数据分析发现:① 侗寨景观的4个基因均对地方认同建构产生积极作用,且呈现“萨坛>围鼓楼布局>杉山溪田>鼓楼”强弱顺序;② 景观基因在地方认同建构中的作用效应是意向认同>情感认同>认知认同;③ 在地方认同测量模型中,居住时间、出生地、职业、收入、村落发展、教育程度、居民类型、鼓楼、萨坛、围鼓楼布局、杉山溪田等因素对地方认同的影响明显;④ 在个人特征、社会经济、景观基因3个测量模型中,居住时间对个人特征影响最明显,村落发展对社会经济影响最强,萨坛对景观基因感知贡献最大;⑤ 个人特征、社会经济因素共变后通过景观基因感知对地方认同产生间接效应。


    The interpretation of inheritance and development of traditional village culture is inseparable from the interpretation of village landscape. It is important to explore the role of the Dong Mininortiy Village Landscape gene in construction of place identity to the national cultural heritage protection. Based on recognition of Dong Mininortiy traditional village landscape gene as Drum Tower, Sa Altar, surrounded Drum tower layout, and China fir paddy field, this article studies the effect of landscape gene in construction place identity relyling on construction structural equation model with 272 questionnaires in Tongdao Taro, Zhaoxing in Liping, Gaoding in Sanjiang. 1) Village landscape gene has an active effect on construction place identity, and the order is Sa altar > surrounded Drum tower layout > China fir paddy > Drum Tower; 2) Effect of landscape gene in construction place identity is the intention identity > emotional identity > recognition identity; 3) In the measurement model of place identity, the following factors have obvious influence on place identity, as residence time, birthplace, occupation, income, level of education, the development of villages, residents type, Drum Tower, Sa Altar, surrounded Drum tower layout, China fir paddy, ect.; 4) In the three measurement models of the personal characteristics, social economy and landscape gene, individual living time has the most influence on personal characteristics, village development has the strongest influence on the social economy, and Sa Altar has the greatest contribution to landscape gene perception; 5) Personal characteristics and social economy have indirect effects on the place identity through the landscape gene sense.

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    浙江省旅游生态安全的时空格局及障碍因子
    周彬,钟林生,陈田,张爱平
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 599-607.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.599
    摘要   HTML   PDF (588KB)

    以浙江省为案例地,构建了基于PSR-EES模型的旅游生态安全评价指标体系,运用改进的TOPSIS法对其2000~2012年旅游生态安全进行了动态评估,并使用生态安全等级动态度模型、马尔可夫链模型、灰色关联度模型对其时空格局和障碍因子进行了分析。结果表明:① 2000~2012年,浙江省旅游生态安全指数由0.399增加至0.628,安全等级从敏感等级上升至一般安全等级;② 浙江省旅游生态安全风险等级和敏感等级的城市数量减少,而临界安全和一般安全等级的城市数量增加,且旅游生态安全等级存在跳跃式转移;③ 浙江省旅游生态安全主要障碍因子为游客数量增长率、旅游收入增长率、环保投入占GDP比重和森林覆盖率。


    Scientifical assessment on the ecological security of tourist destinations is important for achieving the sustainable development of tourism. Based on the principles of systematicness, hierarchy, maneuverability and the procurability of research data, and the actual situation of tourism economy and ecological environment in Zhejiang Province, this article combines the Pressure-State-Response (P-S-R) model and the Economic-Environment-Social (EES) model to construct a tourism destination ecological security evaluation index system. The mean-square-error decision method was used to calculate the weight of the evaluation index. We used improved TOPSIS to conduct a dynamic evaluation index of the tourism destination ecological security in Zhejiang Province form 2000 to 2012. The spatio-temporal pattern and its obstacle factors were studied using ArcGIS software, dynamic model of ecological security level, the Markov chain model, and the gray relative level model. The results showed the following: 1) from 2000 to 2012, the tourism destination ecological security comprehensive index increased from 0.399 to 0.626, the security level raised from the sensitive grade to the general safety grade. In this period, there were a risk grade in 2000-2002 and 2004-2005; a sensitive grade in 2006; a critical safety grade in 2003, 2007 and 2010; and a general safety grade in the other years. The tourism destination ecological security in Zhejiang Province still has a big space to promote. 2) In Zhejiang Province, the number of cities with risk grade and sensitive grade for ecological security decreased while that with a critical safety grade and general safety grade increased. Furthermore, the increase speed of the number of cities with the relatively high security grade is faster than the decrease speed of the number of cities with the relatively low security grade. There exists a leaping development among the transfer process of different ecological security grades. 3) The main factors affecting ecological security are the growth rate of domestic tourism, the growth of international tourism income, the growth rate of inbound tourists, the domestic income growth rate, and the proportion of environment preservation in GDP and forest coverage. The gray relative levels are 0.803, 0.764, 0.715, 0.667, 0.647 and 0.605, respectively.

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    南沙群岛历史事件时空演化的可视化表达
    王加胜,李满春,刘永学,张荷霞,汪业成,成王玉
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 608-614.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.608
    摘要   HTML   PDF (1049KB)

    南沙争端的起源与发展错综复杂,以文字材料表现不直观,难以快速、全面地理解争端的历史进程。研究引入可视化表达技术,通过从文字材料中收集争端事件,利用统计图表、社会网络和GIS技术对南沙群岛历史事件演化的时空特征进行可视化表达。结果表明,3种可视化表达方法有效地表达了历史事件时空演化过程,反映南沙争端演化的4个阶段(殖民期、和平期、侵占期和稳定期),突出各国重点关注的岛礁类型,发现越南历史事件覆盖的岛礁面广,菲律宾引发的争端事件多。


    The Nansha Islands and its neighboring region is Chinese traditional territory. The region has very important strategic value for the abundant oil and gas resources, the significant position of shipping lane. Neighboring countries in the South China Sea have been occupied Chinese Nansha reefs and robbing the oil and gas resources since the 20th century. A complex situation has been formed. Current research about the Nansha dispute give priority to with text. It is counter-intuitive, slow and one-sided to describe the evolvement rules of the Nansha dispute by using text description. In this study, three visualization methods were introduced to reveal the spatial-temporal variation rules of historical events in the Nansha Islands. First, the dispute incidents were collected and preprocessed from a large number of related texts. Then the spatial-temporal characteristics of historical events in the Nansha Islands were analyzed through statistical charts, social network and geographic information system. The results showed that: 1) the evolution of the Nansha islands dispute since the 20th century could be divided into four stages: the colonial period (from 1900 to 1950), peaceful period (from 1950 to 1970), occupation period (from 1970 to 2000) and stability period (from 2000 to 2012). 2) Critical focus reefs by neighboring countries could be divided into reefs with rich oil and gas resources (such as Zengmu Ansha, Wan’an Tan, Liyue Tan etc.) and reefs with superior natural condition (such as Taiping Dao, Zhongye Dao, Nanwei Dao, Nanzi Dao, Hongxiu Dao etc.); 3) The change of Vietnamese events was mainly in the period from 1970 to 2000. The spatial expansion of the events started at Nanwei Dao in the middle part of the Nansha Islands, then enlarged towards the east, the north and the south, and formed four cores of events distribution which included Nanwei Dao, Anbo Shazhou, Northern reefs and Wan’an Tan. Until 2010, the events of Vietnam had covered all of the Nansha reefs. 4) Unlike Vietnam, the events number of Philippine increases progressively with years. These events were mainly located at the north of the Nansha Islands. There were many inflammatory incidents related to Philippine in the Nansha Islands. Philippine had formed four cores of events included Taiping Dao, Zhongye Dao, Liyue Tan and Meiji Jiao with time according to the spatial distribution of events.

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    基于时空窗口改进的时空加权回归分析——以湖北省黄石市住房价格为例
    王新刚,孔云峰
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 615-621.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.615
    摘要   HTML   PDF (644KB)

    针对地理加权回归(GWR)模型不能有效处理样本数据空间自相关性这一问题,构造局部时空窗口统计量,尝试改进时空加权回归(GTWR)模型。定义多时空窗口的概念,给出其选取、计算和验证方法;计算时空窗口包含的各样本点的被解释变量平均值,与样本拟合点的被解释变量值的比值,作为新的解释变量,构建改进的时空加权回归(IGTWR)模型。以土地稀缺、多中心、资源型城市——湖北省黄石市为例,收集2007~2012年商品住宅成交价格1.93万个数据和398个楼栋样本点,选取小区等级、绿化率、楼栋总层数、容积率、距区域中心距离和销售年份6个解释变量,分别利用常规线性回归(OLS)、GWR、GTWR和IGTWR方法进行回归分析。模型结果表明:计算Moran’s I指数和分析时间序列的自相关性,能确定时空窗口的大小和数量的选取;IGTWR模型和各变量的回归统计均通过0.05的显著性水平检验,有关解释变量的系数估计值在空间分布上能合理解释;GWR拟合结果优于OLS,GTWR优于GWR,而IGTWR拟合精度最好。与GTWR模型分析相比, IGTWR模型R2从0.877提升到0.919,而AICc、残差方(RSS)和均方差(MSE)分别从6 226、49 996 201和354.427下降到6 206、32 327 472和284.969。案例研究表明:IGTWR能够表达一定时空范围的时空自相关特征,减小了估计误差,提高了回归拟合精度。


    Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is a useful technique for exploring spatial nonstationarity by calibrating a regression model which allows different relationships to exist at different points in space. However, spatial autocorrelation can invalidate the model assumption and sometimes may result in residual dependency. This article aims to improve the spatiotemporal weighted regression (GTWR) by introducing additional variables based on spatiotemporal windows. The size parameters for defining spatiotemporal windows are estimated by spatial and temporal statistics of all the sample data. The new window variables are calculated by averaging the explained variables which are located in its spatio-temporal window. The new variables are added in GTWR as an improved regression (IGTWR) model. Huangshi City, a resource-dependent, land-scarce and multi-center city in Hubei Province, is selected as the study area. 19 300 commercial housing units and 398 buildings in 2007-2012 are collected as sample data. Based on general and spatial statistics, the number of building floors, the plot ratio, the greening ratio, the level of property management, the distance to region center, and the year of sale are selected as explanatory variables. The sample data are analyzed by four regression models respectively: ordinary linear regression (OLS), GWR, GTWR and IGTWR. The optimum size and number of spatiotemporal window are estimated by the Moran's I index and the correlation coefficients between temporal sequences. Modeling results indicate that both the IGTWR model and its variables pass the statistical test at the significant level 0.05. The spatial distribution of the variable coefficients can be explained reasonably. The comparison of all modeling results shows that GWR is better than OLS, GTWR is better than GWR, and IGTWR is better than GTWR, in terms of the measure of goodness of fit (R2), the Akaike information criterion (AICc) , the residual sum of squares (RSS) and the mean squared error(MSE). In the case study, compared with GTWR, the R2, AICc, RSS and MSE from IGTWR are improved from 0.877 to 0.919, 6 226 to 6 206, 49 996 201 to 32 327 472 and 354.427 to 284.969 respectively. The case study indicates that the IGTWR model is effective for temporal and spatial analysis of urban housing price. By introducing window based indicators in GTWR model as new variables, the IGTWR model may estimate the impact of spatial and temporal autocorrelation between geographic data, and thus is able to reduce the model error and increase the model accuracy.

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    中国草原区植被变化及其对气候变化的响应
    神祥金,周道玮,李飞,张海艳
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 622-629.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.622
    摘要   HTML   PDF (878KB)

    利用1982~2006年GIMMS NDVI和气象数据,探究中国草原区植被变化及对气候的响应。结果表明,近25 a中国草原区植被覆盖总体呈上升趋势,但季节变化空间差异明显。春季温度对温带典型草原、高寒草甸草原和高寒典型草原植被生长有重要影响,而夏季和秋季温度同样对高寒草甸草原影响显著;夏季降水增多能明显促进夏季温带荒漠草原植被生长。除8月份以外,温带草原5~9月NDVI均与前一个月降水显著正相关;在生长季内,高寒草原NDVI与同期温度显著正相关,但8月份除外。此外高寒草原植被在生长最旺盛时期对降水变化存在1~3个月滞后期。


    This study analyzed the variation trend of vegetation NDVI and its response to climate change in grassland region of China by employing MODIS NDVI and meteorological data from1982 to 2006. Trend analysis, correlation analysis and spatial statistical analysis were carried out to investigate variation characteristics and spatial distribution pattern of vegetation NDVI, and analyze the relations between vegetation NDVI and meteorological factors. For temperate grassland region of China, growing season NDVI decreased gradually from northeast to southwest, and the grassland types from northeast to southwest are temperate meadow, temperate typical grassland and temperate desert grassland. For alpine grassland region of China, growing season NDVI was smaller overall than that of temperate grassland region, and it decreased on the whole from east to west, with the largest values concentrating in the east alpine meadow grassland. The results indicated that growing season NDVI increased on the whole in recent 25 years, but the spatial differences of seasonal changes were obvious. The largest increase of monthly NDVI occurred in August for temperate grassland region and in July for alpine grassland region. In the aspect of climate change, temperature showed obvious increase trend in the whole grassland region of China, while precipitation changes were not significant. For temperate grassland, spring temperature played an important impact on the vegetation growth of temperate typical grassland. The increase of summer precipitation could obviously promote the vegetation growth of temperate desert grassland. Monthly correlation analyses results showed that temperate grassland vegetation NDVI was significantly positively correlated with temperature in April, and May NDVI was significantly positively correlated with temperature in March and April. By contrast, the increase of June temperature could inhibit the growth of temperate grassland plants during the same period. In terms of precipitation, temperate grassland vegetation NDVI was significantly positively correlated with the previous month's precipitation (except August). April NDVI was significantly negatively correlated with precipitation in February, indicating that the low temperature in February could limit the growth of temperate grassland at the beginning of the growing season. Precipitation in June and July was significant for temperate grassland vegetation growth during the same time period, and the effect of August precipitation on vegetation growth was remarkable in September and October. For alpine grassland, spring temperature played an important impact on the vegetation growth of alpine meadow grassland and alpine typical grassland; summer and autumn temperatures had significant effect on alpine meadow grassland vegetation growth. Monthly correlation analyses results showed that monthly (April to October ) alpine grassland vegetation NDVI was significantly positively related to the air temperature during the same time period (except August), and temperature in August could affect alpine grassland vegetation growth in September. In addition, during the most vigorous growth period, alpine grassland vegetation had a time lag of 1-3 months for precipitation.

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    以遥感为基础的干旱监测方法研究进展
    周磊,武建军,张洁
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 630-636.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.630
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    总结了目前广泛应用的气象监测模型和基于遥感数据的干旱监测模型,将目前的遥感监测方法分为植被状态监测方法、微波土壤水分监测方法、热红外遥感监测方法和基于能量平衡的遥感监测方法进行综述,深入分析了基于遥感数据的监测方法的特点、适用条件和存在的问题。通过综述基于多源数据的干旱综合监测模型,对未来干旱监测方法的发展方向进行研究和探讨,指出集成多源数据的干旱综合监测模型是解决复杂的干旱监测问题的新方法。


    Drought is a serious natural disaster. It is doing increasingly damage to the human environment as the drought events occur more frequently. Real-time and effective drought monitoring is an effective means to reduce the losses caused by drought. Since the beginning of 20th century, a lot of drought indices have been developed for monitoring the occurrence and variation of drought. Drought is a complex natural disaster. However, each drought index has its own advantages and weaknesses in drought monitoring. Almost all the drought indices are based on specific geographical and temporal scales; it is difficult to spread its applicability all over the world. Because of the meteorological drought indices using discrete, point-based meteorological measurements collected at weather station locations, the results have restricted level of spatial precision for monitoring drought patterns. Remote sensing technology provides alternative data for operational drought monitoring, with advanced temporal and spatial characteristics. However, additional information still needs to be incorporated so as to thoroughly explain the anomaly in vegetation caused by drought. Besides, to achieve a more accurate description of drought characteristics, drought intensity differences caused by vegetation type, temperature, elevation, manmade irrigation, and other factors under the same water condition must be considered. Therefore, effective drought monitoring indicator should both reflect soil moisture, vegetation condition and take into account vegetation type, temperature, and man-made factors leading to regional drought differences. Aiming at the problem mentioned above, the satellite based drought indices, and integrated meteorological and remote sensed drought indices was reviewed in our research. Firstly, this paper summarized the widely used drought monitoring models which were based on remote sensing data. The remote sensing drought monitoring approach was summarized by dividing it into four classes i.e. vegetation condition monitoring methods, microwave soil moisture monitoring methods, thermal infrared remote sensing monitoring methods and indices based on energy balance theory. The characteristics, application conditions and problems of the monitoring method which were based on remote sensing data and multi-source data (meteorological data, remote sensing data and biophysical data) were deeply analyzed. Then, the future development direction of drought monitoring model was studied and discussed by concluding comprehensive drought monitoring model which was based on multi-source data. Integrated multi-source data to construct comprehensive drought monitoring model was pointed out as a new approach to solve complex problems of drought monitoring. It can solve the inconsistency problems of space and temporal resolution from different data types. But the present study concluded that research on this area is still in the experimental and exploratory stage and need further improvement and development.

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    基于局部聚类的网络Voronoi图生成方法研究
    佘冰,叶信岳,房会会,吴玲,朱欣焰,程叶青
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 637-643.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.637
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    提出一种将网络约束下的Voronoi和空间聚类相结合的方法,通过构造局部的聚类分析方法对网络边进行加权,根据实际的点过程性质可以把权重定义为加权或者乘权,进行标准化后与道路段本身长度融合进行计算,依此生成网络Voronoi图,以期理解城市街道的空间特性。以武汉市江汉区为例,对城市网格管理系统产生的城市事件进行算法验证,结果表明,该方法提供了一种灵活的网络约束下的服务区域划分工具,可用于基于网络空间点过程影响下的服务区划分,也可用于系统性地定量刻画城市管理的动态特性。


    The planar space assumption of spatial cluster detection is invalid in the real world. The network space has opened a new gate to finer-scale spatial analysis, and provides a perspective for human dynamics. The urban street network is shaped by social and economic forces over time and also reflects the influences of governmental policies and cultural values. In the real world, any phenomenon whose location is represented through a street address system is inherently constrained by the street network. Hence, both events and their movements are constrained by the street network in the urban area. For example, the street-side business will cause more traffic, which lead to both management and commuting costs. Since the spatial point process is inherently probabilistic, it’s hard to set a fixed set of criteria, which would otherwise be dealt with as a spatial optimization problem. The weight of a given street segment will vary across space and over time when the activities of street-side business on this focal segment and nearby ones are considered. It is crucial to incorporate this information into urban management and urban studies, because equally-weighted street segments do not exist in the real world. The extension of Voronoi diagrams to the network space provides a useful tool in estimating service area in cities. Weighted Voronoi diagrams have been widely adopted to describe the capacity constraints. This proposed method develops a network Voronoi diagram with weighted links based on spatial cluster analysis. It borrows the strength from two large and growing literatures: Voronoi diagram and spatial cluster analysis. The weight is a central component in the construction of weighted Voronoi in urban street network. The weights are generated using local Moran’s I statistic. The weights, either additive or multiplicative, are normalized and transformed into the link length for constructing network Voronoi diagrams. The Monte Carlo simulation process is adopted to illustrate the statistical significance of detected clusters, and only links with significant p values are chosen to be weighted. The normalization interval determines how the clustering level influences the weights. The additive weight reflects the added constraint of the link attribute, while the multiplicative weight demonstrates the degree of influences imposed on the links. The conceptual foundations and technical details of this approach are elaborated in the case study of Wuhan City, China. The results show that the method is effective in incorporating the clustering criteria into the Voronoi construction, and provides an alternative tool for service area division. The constructed network Voronoi diagrams explicitly take into account the characteristics of underlying event distribution instead of a fixed set of criteria. This method sheds new light on micro-level spatial analysis, providing a perspective for observing how socio-economic urban activities, represented as network-constrained point distribution, shape the spatial structure and patterns in the metropolitan area. These constraints are often modelled on the generator points according to a set of predefined criteria. However, human activities are highly dynamic and constantly evolving. The outcomes of these activities are often represented as spatial point processes, which are also constrained by the network space. By means of clustering, the influences of the event points can be modelled as weights posed on the network links. Such weights can represent the congestions caused or times consumed in handling the events. Accounting these weighted links in the network Voronoi diagram will effectively capture the probabilistic nature of underlying point processes, and therefore more faithfully approximate the partition of street space. In a follow-up study, sensitivity analysis needs to be carried to test how the results might vary based on the street segment size to select.

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    黄柏山树轮生长对气候因子的响应及模拟
    彭剑峰,王婷
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 644-651.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.644
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    利用大别山西部的3个黄山松(Pinus taiwanensis Hayata)树木年轮采样点的样本,建立3个标准年表,其特征值都表明黄山松树木年轮宽度中含有较高的环境信息;年表间相关密切,区域主要受气候因子影响、南北差异显著;年表与气候因素的相关也显示不同环境生长的黄山松差异性要大于共性;同样多元线性回归也确定该研究区影响树木生长的主导因子为前一年10月的均温,而前一年8月的降水同样起着非常重要的作用。不同要素的模拟结果有较好的一致性,但极端气候条件下树木的生长差异显著。


    We developed three tree-ring width standard chronology from three Huangshan pine (Pinus taiwanensis) tree-ring sampling sites at Huangbaish Mountain in the western Dabieshan Mountain, Xinyang City of Henan Province. 1) 3 standard chronologies were developed by using the international general method of tree rings, the results of their chronology eigenvalues and statistical characteristics from common times indicated that higher environmental information was contained in Huangshan Pine tree-rings, nevertheless the first-order autocorrelation coefficient showed that there was the larger influence from the prior period of the tree-ring growth; 2) The results of correlation analysis (CA) and principal component analysis (PCA) showed that they closely related among 3 standard chronologies, but the result of PCA indicated that PC1 standing for the dominant factor was the climate environment factor and significant difference found from north to south, and PC2 and PC3 showed high altitude and sunny slope were conducive to the growth of Huangshan Pine; 3) Based on dendroclimatological analyses the relationships between tree-ring width indexes of whole research region and 3 sampling sites and climatic factors were detected there were some common impact factors to Huangshan Pine from different growth environment, but much more difference than that of in common; 4) By using multiple linear regression method, the regional tree-ring growth patterns were established about different influence factors, the stepwise linear regression results also identified that the dominant factor of affect trees growth in the whole study area was prior October temperature, and precipitation of previous August also plays a very important role in tree growth process. The results verify these of dendroclimatological research. The models of different elements have good consistency; tree growth difference is remarkable under extreme weather conditions.

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    横向沙丘表面气流湍流特征野外观测
    张正偲,董治宝
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 652-657.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.652
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    沙丘形态动力学特征是风沙地貌的重要研究内容之一,受观测技术等的限制,现有的关于沙丘形态动力学特征的研究成果还不能满足沙丘形成与演化过程研究的需要。利用三维超声风速仪对腾格里沙漠的横向沙丘表面气流特征进行野外观测,结果表明,沙丘脊线和迎风坡中部的气流均为未偏向流,而沙丘背风坡不同高度的气流包括反向流,偏向流和未偏向流。湍流强度、雷诺应力和气流丰富度随气流方向变化而变化,其在沙丘脊线和中部的变化趋势比较简单且有大致相似的规律,而其在沙丘背风坡不同高度比较复杂。


    Dune morphology dynamic is one of the main issues in aeolian geomorphology research. Because of the restriction of measurement technology, the research result on the aeolian geomorphology dynamic is unable to meet the need for dune formation and development at present. Sonic anemometer could measure the high frequency three direction wind velocity simultaneously, and could provide detailed flow information over dune surface. The results indicated that the flow structure at dune ridges and middle part is deflected; however, the flow structure at dune toe is reversal, deflected and undeflected. The flow direction at the ridge is asymmetric for the formation of reversal and deflected flow at the toe. Turbulence intensity, Reynolds stress and flow exuberance changed with flow direction, and has the similar rule at the dune ridge and middle part over dune surface, but it’s complicated at dune toe.

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    基于作物生长期的江苏省沿海地区气候生产潜力估算
    许艳,濮励杰,朱明
    地理科学. 2015, 35 (5): 658-664.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.05.658
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    江苏沿海地区是中国重要的耕地后备资源基地之一,气候生产潜力能够反映该地区粮食安全保障能力大小。考虑作物不同生长期光温水协调程度,对现有气候生产潜力模型基于作物生长期进一步改进,估算江苏沿海地区14个县市三大粮食作物气候生产潜力。结果表明:基于作物生长期的气候生产潜力模型具有可行性。江苏省沿海地区水稻和小麦作物气候生产潜力受太阳有效辐射、温度和降水因素共同影响;玉米气候生产潜力主要受太阳有效辐射和温度影响,不受降水因素限制。从地域分布特征看,江苏沿海地区水稻和玉米气候生产潜力南北方向呈现梯度递增规律;小麦气候生产潜力南北方向差异不大。


    Climate potential productivity reflects regional capacity of food supplies. Light, temperature and precipitation are three key climate factors influencing crop productivity. In past researches, three climate factors have been calculated during the whole crop period in the crop productivity models. However, couple relationships of light, temperature, and precipitation in different growth periods influences crop productivity differently. Considering that crops need different climate resources at different growing periods, thisarticle improved the existing model to calculate the climate potential productivity of rice, wheat and corn. Jiangsu Coastal zone is one of the significant bases of cropland complementary resource, and it is of great significance to understand capacity of food supplies of this area. Therefore, we took fourteen counties at coastal zone of Jiangsu province as a case study to calculate light potential productivity, light and temperature potential productivity and climate potential productivity of rice, wheat and corn and analyze spatial variation of crop productivity of different counties in Jiangsu coastal zone. The results show that the method of mechanism based on crop growing period to calculate the climate potential productivity for fourteen counties at coastal zone of Jiangsu province is feasible. The light potential productivity of rice, wheat and corn in Jiangsu province are 21 215.1 kg/ha, 15 083.6 kg/ha, and 26 424.9 kg/ha, respectively. The light and temperature potential productivity of rice, wheat and corn in Jiangsu province are 19 942.8 kg/ha, 11 728.2 kg/ha, and 24 094.8 kg/ha, respectively. The climate potential productivity of rice, wheat and corn in Jiangsu province are 19 828.4 kg/ha, 11 158.6 kg/ha, and 24 094.8 kg/ha, respectively. The climate potential productivity of rice and wheat are affected by light, temperature and precipitation, while the climate potential of corn is influenced by light and temperature. The light potential productivity, light and temperature potential productivity and climate potential productivity of different crops in Jiangsu coastal zone have different geographical distributions. The light potential productivity,light and temperature potential productivity and climate potential productivity of rice and corn increase from south to north. The light potential productivity, light and temperature potential productivity of wheat increases from south to north. The climate potential productivity of wheat has no large differences from south to north.

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