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  • 地理科学
      2016年, 第36卷, 第12期 刊出日期:2016-12-20 上一期    下一期
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    论文
    中国高校创新产出的空间溢出效应与区域经济增长——基于省域数据的空间计量经济分析
    胡曙虹,黄丽,范蓓蕾,肖刚
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1767-1776.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.001
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (629KB)

    采用空间计量经济学方法,基于2003~2012年中国省域高校创新产出及经济增长的统计数据,对中国省域高校创新产出的空间溢出效应及其对区域经济增长的影响进行测算与分析。结果表明:中国省域高校创新产出存在一定的空间依赖性,空间分布的不平衡性逐步加剧,从2003年的“沿海-沿江”分布进一步演变至2012年明显集聚在长江三角洲及山东、湖北、重庆等少数省域;空间计量模型结果表明,研究期内高校创新产出对区域经济增长的拉动作用不断提升;计量结果显示,高校通过基础研究及产学研合作获得的创新产出对促进区域经济增长的贡献显著。


    Under the ground of globalization and knowledge economy, as the first executive main body of knowledge innovation system, the main way of university participate in economic development is transfer knowledge and research results to the driving force. With the method of spatial econometrics, and using the data of university innovation and regional economic growth from 2003 to 2012, this article measured spatial aggregating features of innovative outputs of universities in province area in China and calculated its impact on regional economic growth. The results showed that: 1) Innovative outputs of universities of China exist certain space dependence. The imbalance of spatial agglomeration gradually intensified, and the agglomeration area is along east-coast and the Yangtze River in 2003, further evolution apparent agglomeration in Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, Hubei and Chongqing in 2012. 2) Spatial econometric model has good estimation results when used to research the correlative mechanism of innovative outputs of universities and regional economic growth. The pull effects from innovative outputs of universities on economic growth were upgrading during the study period. 3) According to the results, innovative outputs of universities that gained from basic research and industry-university-institutes cooperation have significantly contribution on promoting regional economic growth. Then put forward corresponding policy recommendations based on the empirical analysis. The results of empirical analysis have provided new perspectives to analyze the function of university in China and have also offered certain theory references to construct and improve the regional knowledge innovation system. The main corresponding policy recommendation is the role and function especially in basic research and original innovation of university should be further strengthened in order to generate new research results of knowledge innovation for the development of regional innovation system.

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    中国城市群人口流动问题探析——以沿海三大城市群为例
    孙阳,姚士谋,陆大道,张落成
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1777-1783.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.002
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (381KB)

    新型城镇化下着重以人为本的城市现代化建设,以沿海城市群为代表的三大核心城市群正在成为形成具有中国特色的区域发展模式与空间组合新模式。对沿海三大城市群城镇化过程中人口吸纳与流动过程的研究表明:城市群经济聚集的核心区域,人口聚集程度紧密且人口空间结构的集中化特征明显;城市群对流动人口吸纳能力不断增强,吸纳能力与城市群级别成正比;在城市群区内人口流动结构的固定化方面,东部沿海城市是流动人口的首选区域,由西部向东部人口流入的趋势日益明显,人口流动将相对固定化,成为城镇人口的主要来源。这就需加强对城市群区内各大城市发展功能的深刻认识,并加强建设综合性城市管理数据库,分析城市群之间的内部联系及其城镇人口的合理安排,劳动力的地域分工与城市之间产业链的协作关系,以期达到更深刻的探索中国城市群的总体发育趋势的远大目标。


    New urbanization focuses on people-oriented urban modernization. Three core urban agglomerations represented by coastal urban agglomeration in China are becoming a new model of regional development and space combination with Chinese characteristics. This study on population absorption and flow process in the advancement of the three coastal urban agglomerations proves that: 1) In core areas of economic agglomeration, the degree of population aggregation is high, and the centralization characteristics of population spatial structure are obvious. 2) The ability of urban agglomeration to absorb floating population increased, and the absorption capacity is proportional to the level of urban agglomeration. 3) In the aspect of immobilization of population flow structure in the urban agglomeration area, eastern coastal cities are the preferred area for the floating population. Furthermore, the trend of population inflow from the west to the east is becoming increasingly obvious, and population flow is relatively immobilized, which becoming the main source of urban population. Strengthening the profound understanding of development functions of the major cities in urban agglomeration areas and enhancing the construction of a comprehensive city management database are necessary. In addition, analyzing the internal relations between urban agglomerations and the reasonable arrangement of the urban population, as well as the regional division of labor and the cooperation between cities in the industrial chain, are important to achieve a more profound exploration of the overall development trend of China’s urban agglomeration.

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    基于经济基础理论的中国城市基本-非基本经济活动关系的实证检验
    关皓明,张平宇
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1784-1792.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.003
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (517KB)

    经济基础理论是分析城市经济活动的经典理论之一,但此理论既没有获得全面认可也没有被完全否定。基于改进的区位商方法、线性回归模型和VAR模型,选取吉林省中小城市、三亚市、海口市、深圳市、广州市作为研究对象,对其基本-非基本经济活动关系进行实证检验。研究发现:1991~2013年,规模相对较小的海口市发展动力主要来源于基本经济活动,与经济基础理论相符合;规模大的广州市经济活动的表现形式与经济基础理论不相符。研究结果表明:“基本-非基本经济活动比例关系随着城市规模的扩大而逐渐减小”这一城市发展必然现象假说对于具备相当规模和一定水平的城市成立,存在城市规模门槛。运用边际乘数法估计“乘数效应”更加有效,平均乘数法估计“乘数效应”存在明显不足。规模大的城市其基本经济活动产生的“乘数效应”弱化,城市经济活动已不符合基本经济模式,表现为基本-非基本经济活动相互依存的模式。结合实证结果,提出了2个有待进一步验证的假设。


    Economic Base Theory is one of the classical theories of urban economic activity. Up to now, there have been a lot of empirical research on Economic Base Theory, but the theory has not been fully recognized and has not been completely denied. Among them, research consensus emphasis that Economic Base Theory should be used to analyze the city with small size and simple economic activities, but there is no definite conclusion about the upper limit of the city scale. Therefore, it is necessary to do more empirical researches. On the basis of existing research, aiming at the lack of empirical test research on the Economic Base Theory, based on the improved location quotient method, linear regression model and VAR model, the small and medium-sized cities of Jilin Province, Sanya City, Haikou City, Shenzhen City and Guangzhou City are selected as the empirical test objects. The test hypothesis include: 1) The proportion of basic economic activities is gradually reduced with the expansion of city scale. 2) With the expansion of urban scale, the basic economic activities of the ‘multiplier effects’ are weakened. 3) Basic economic activities are the main driving force for urban development. The empirical contents are divided into three parts: 1) Based on the improved location quotient method, the urban economic activities are divided into the basic- nonbasic economic activities. 2) The ‘multiplier effects’ of the basic economic activity is estimated by the average multiplier method and the marginal multiplier method. 3) VAR model and impulse response function are used to analyze the dynamic relationship between the basic and non basic economic activities. Main research results are as follows: From 1991 to 2013, the development process of small scale of Haikou City followed the Economic Base Theory, the driving forces were mainly from the basic economic activities. The economic activities of Guangzhou City were not in conformity with the economic base theory. The main conclusions are the following: first, for a city with considerable scale and certain development level, the proportion of basic-nonbasic economic activities gradually decreases with the expansion of the scale of the city. Second, using the marginal multiplier method to estimate the ‘multiplier effects’ is effective, the average multiplier method to estimate the ‘multiplier effects’ is obviously insufficient. Third, the ‘multiplier effects’ caused by the basic economic activities of the larger cities is weakened, and the urban economic activities are not in line with the Economic Base Model, which is shown as the interdependent model of basic-nonbasic economic activities. Based on the empirical results, two hypotheses are put forward. First, for a small size city, the basic economic activities could have a ‘multiplier effects’ which is related to the size of the basic economic activities and the growth rate of the basic economic activities. Second, for a small city and small cities in a region as a whole, the driving force of development could be evaluated by comparing the value of ‘multiplier effects’ with 1.

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    基于DEA-Malmquist模型的唐山市工业经济与能源全要素生产率分析
    韩瑞玲,张秋娈,朱绍华,陈艳梅
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1793-1801.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.004
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (537KB)

    以唐山市34个工业行业的面板数据为基础,选择DEA和Malmquist指数模型,对1992~2012年全要素经济生产率、2000~2012年全要素能源生产率及其分解结果进行了分析,并对全要素经济生产率、全要素能源生产率分别进行了影响因素分析。结果发现:研究期内,全要素经济生产率、全要素能源生产率均有所提高,其中技术进步发挥了最主要作用。总体上,经济、能源的TFP指数均在2010年表现最优。分行业看,唐山市的传统优势产业的经济、能源TFP指数增长较快,这对唐山未来产业转型和重组产生了较大阻力,但是也显示出能源集约化程度有所提高。从根本上看,产业结构的不合理不仅束缚了经济、能源效率的提高,且连带影响了对外开放水平的进步及能源结构的优化。通过对唐山市工业行业经济、能源的静态与动态效率分析,并进行影响因素分析,可判定唐山工业发展的质量及各行业的发展差异,为区域进一步转型发展提供理论依据。


    Based on the panel data of 34 industries in Tangshan City, this article analyzed the total factor productivity analysis (TFP) of economy and TFP of energy in 1992-2012, with the help of DEA-Malmquist Index Approach, DEAP2.1 software. It was found that, the technological advances had played a major role for the increases of the economy and energy productivity of TFP during the study period. Totally, the economy and energy index of TFP were the best in 2010, and the TFP index in traditional advantage industry of Tangshan City grew rapidly among different industries. In terms of economic efficiency, 5 industries like ferrous metal mining industry, non-ferrous metal mining industry, agricultural and sideline food processing industry, furniture manufacturing, and metal products showed high industry development efficiency. And in energy efficiency, the non-ferrous metal mining industry, coal mining and washing industry, ferrous metal mining industry, general equipment manufacturing industry showed the same trend. This phenomenon would be a larger resistance in the future’s industrial transformation and restructuring. However, it also showed that the increasing energy intensification. Scientific investment, information technology, and energy self-sufficiency have a positive impact on the improvement of energy efficiency, while industrial structure and energy structure have suppressed energy efficiency. The conventional economic construction, urbanization process can promote economic efficiency, and the lack of investment in science and technology could reduce the speed of efficiency. Basically, irrational industrial structure not only hindered the enhancement of economy and energy efficiency but also affected the progress of opening-up and improvement of energy structure.

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    深圳市城中村“非正规住房”空间特征与演化研究
    赵静,闫小培,朱莹
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1802-1810.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.005
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (780KB)

    基于住房普查和建筑普查资料,对深圳市城中村“非正规住房”的空间特征与演化进行研究。得出以下结论:城中村“非正规住房”的空间集聚特征明显并形成若干集聚区,且表现出明显的圈层分化,非正规住房规模比重从城市中心到边缘呈先增长后降低的发展态势。影响城中村“非正规住房”空间结构的主因子包括规模因子、住房构成因子、增长因子、建筑特征因子和使用状态因子,城中村“非正规住房”可以划分为边缘增长型、空间集聚型、相对稳定型和中心转化型等4种类型。 深圳市城中村“非正规住房”的发展演化过程包括形成阶段、快速发展阶段、高潮阶段和缓慢增长阶段,不同阶段的非正规住房具有差异化的演化背景与空间结构特征。


    China has been experiencing a rapid urbanization, together with a huge wave of immigrant population to cities. The housing problem of rural-urban migrants in China has become a focus of both academic and government concerns. Most of the rural-urban migrants cannot find suitable shelters through formal channels because of low-income and their Hukou registration. Due to the contradiction between housing supply and demand, the informal housing in urban village plays an important part in housing supply. Informal housing is widespread in urban village of rapid urbanization area. Scholars in western countries have established sound theoretical frameworks for studying informal housing, but the research fruits are rather limited in China. Therefore, the study on informal housing is of special importance to China's urban housing market and the healthy development of urbanization. Based on the census data, the article analyzes the spatial characteristics and evolution of informal housing in urban villages. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) Informal housing in urban villagesis appeared as spatial agglomeration and formed several concentrated area. The proportions of informal housing in different circles appear as significantly difference. 2) Taking use of the housing census data, this article divide the types of informal housing based on the method of factor analysis. The principal factors affected informal housing including the scale factors, housing constitution factors, growth factors, building characteristics and the using factors. The informal housing in urban villages is divided into four types: the fast growing informal housing, the spatial concentration informal housing, the relatively stable informal housing and the transforming informal housing. The fast growing informal housing tends to be distributed in the periphery of the city. The distribution of spatial concentration informal housing is likely along the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. The main types within the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone are relatively stable and transforming informal housing. 3) The spatial types of informal housing represent the different stage of urbanization. There are different building characteristics and development patterns of informal housing at different stage of urbanization. The formation and development of informal housing reflects the interaction of structure and agency. The results reflect the interaction between strength of top-down and bottom-up in the process of the housing supply.

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    长江中游港口腹地演变及港口-腹地经济协调发展研究
    何丹,高鹏
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1811-1821.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.006
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (849KB)

    运用场强模型计算2001年以来长江中游主要港口的场强值,分析长江中游港口腹地演变特征及趋势,参照钱纳里多国模型划分腹地经济的发展阶段,运用协调发展度和相对发展度模型对处于不同经济发展阶段的腹地与其所属港口的协调关系进行评价,从而把长江中游港口-腹地隶属关系和协调关系纳入统一的研究框架。研究表明:2001年以来长江中游主要港口的场强在递增的同时区域异质性不断扩大。各港口腹地范围差异显著,但总体空间格局变化不显著,且港口腹地演变呈现扩大、缩小和趋于稳定3种态势。港口与腹地的综合协调关系整体处于港口发展滞后于腹地经济发展的磨合阶段,且表现出显著的空间分异特征;经济发展阶段、产业结构、自然条件、交通运输等因素对各港口与腹地经济的协调关系产生不同程度的影响。


    The study on the port-hinterland relation at a regional level has become a hotspot in the field of economic geographies. This article calculates the field-strength of ports in Midstream of the Yangtze River(MYR) value on the method of field-strength model in recent years, and characteristics and trends of hinterland evolution in MYR are analyzed. Next, phases of economic development are divided by referring to Chenery’s multi-national model. Based on above researches, it evaluates the coordination development of ports and hinterland economics which are in different development phases by using coordinated development degree and relative development degree model. Consequently, this article puts the affiliation and coordination relation into a unified research framework. The results show that the field-strength value of ports in MYR increases progressively, while the regional heterogeneity has been expanding since 2001. Secondly, significant difference is found in the scope of hinterland, but the overall spatial pattern of hinterlands shows no great change. Besides, there are three kinds of trends of hinterland evolution: enlarging trend (Wuhan port hinterland, Jiujiang port hinterland and Yueyang port hinterland); shrinking trend (Jingzhou port hinterland, Nanchang port hinterland and Changsha port hinterland) and stable trend (Huangshi port hinterland and Yichang port hinterland). Thirdly, in general, the comprehensive coordination relation of ports and hinterland economics is in break-in phase, which port development lags behind hinterland economic development, and it is characterized by its significant spatial differentiation. Phases of economic development, industrial structure, natural condition and transportation have different influences on coordination relation.

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    长江岸线的空间功能、开发问题及管理对策
    段学军,邹辉
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1822-1833.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.007
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (676KB)

    基于长江岸线空间功能的理念,从历史演变的角度梳理了长江岸线开发功能分异的过程,总结了岸线开发功能定位的科学依据,并剖析了长江岸线开发的区域功能。归纳了长江岸线开发条件评估的技术体系,并综合分析了长江干流(宜宾以下)岸线的开发条件状况及利用现状,提出了长江岸线资源利用中存在的缺少科学的开发时序安排、资源潜力没有得到充分发挥、功能布局不合理、不当开发易造成生态破坏、缺少有效的管理机制等问题。最后,从推进法制建设,破除行政壁垒,建立有偿使用机制,促进功能协调等方面提出加强岸线资源管理的对策,以期为长江岸线科学有效管理与保护提供借鉴。


    The waterfront resources along the Changjiang River (WRCR) are precious resources of the Changjiang River Economic Belt development. Scientific and orderly development and utilization of waterfront resources play an important roles in regional economic development. Based on the concept of WRCR’s space function, from perspective of historical evolution, this article analyzes function differentiation of WRCR which vary from agriculture, port, city and town life, manufacture functions to comprehensive functions. It summarizes the scientific basis of WRCR development function orientation which mainly includes water depth in front of bank, width of waterway waters in front of bank, stability of river bank and conditions or width in back of river bank. It also analyzes WRCR development’s function and impact for cities and regions. The methods and technology systems of development condition evaluation of waterfront resources along rivers are summarized, and the comprehensively development conditions and utilization status of waterfront resources along the stem stream of Changjiang River are analyzed. The waterfront resources along the stem stream of Changjiang River (downstream Yibin City) is about 4 600 km, the longest watershed (i.e. about 1 660 km) along the Changjiang River is in Hubei Province. In downstream Changjiang River, channel depth and conditions or width in back of river bank are relatively good. In middle reaches of the Changjiang River, development conditions of WRCR are poor relatively on account of channel depth limitation, river bank stability is poor. In the upstream Changjiang River, development conditions of WRCR are also poor because width in back of river bank is limited seriously. Then, major problems facing the WRCR development were analyzed, which include lack of scientific development scheduling (e.g. available waterfront resources decreasing dramatically, lack of excellent waterfront resources reserved in the future), resources potential being not fully play (e.g. deep-water WRCR being used as shallow-water WRCR), functional layout being unreasonable (e.g. dysfunction of port, city and town life, manufacture functions), ecological damage of improper development and lack of effective management mechanisms. Finally, this article puts forward some countermeasures to promote WRCR development and management from aspects of strengthening efficient legal construction and scientific planning making, breaking administrative barriers and integrating WRCR, fostering market of WRCR deal and establishing paid use system of WRCR, facilitating intensive utilization and promoting functions coordination of WRCR.

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    领域化视角下的珠三角乡村城市化再思考——以广州市旧水坑村为例
    刘云刚,仵明霞
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1834-1842.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.008
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (752KB)

    从领域视角看,改革开放以来出现的自下而上的乡村城市化过程即是乡村地域的重新领域化与再/去领域化过程。以广州市旧水坑村为案例,运用实地调查、访谈的方法,对乡村城市化过程中社会、市场和行政力量等领域化主体的作用机制进行了剖析。研究发现,村民代表的社会力量是乡村领域化的设计者,而行政力量、市场力量试图通过在其中构建独立领域以增强话语权。叠置的领域和差异悬殊的空间资源支配能力致使资源争夺加剧及非均衡的空间-权力结构形成,并导致村庄发展管治的混乱。因此,需要尽快构建多元主体有机组合的领域单元及均衡的领域政治体系,以实现乡村地域的可持续发展。


    From a territorial perspective, since the Chinese reform and opening policy, the process of bottom-up urbanization (which appeared in Chinese rural areas, raising funds through grass-root organizations and individuals, introducing internal and foreign investment actively, in order to promote rural non-agriculturalization and industrialization) is in fact of the re-territorialization in rural areas. Focusing on Guangzhou’s Jiu-shui-keng village as an example, this study investigates the territorial mechanism among government, the capital and social forces in the process of bottom-up urbanization, employing the methods of field investigation and interview. The Jiu-shui-keng village is situated in the middle of Panyu District in Guangzhou with an area of 1.86 km2 and 2 630 permanent residents, 93.4% of whom have no household registration. The fieldwork was conducted from the end of 2013 to the middle of 2014. It is found that, villagers, representing the social force, are the designer of territorialization in the rural areas. The administrative forces and market forces try to construct an independent territory to enhance their voice. Super imposed territory and the great disparity in space resources disposal capability result in the intensification of resource competition and unbalanced space-power structure, which cause chaos in the management of the village’s development. Therefore, it is suggested that the territorial unit with multiple actors from different backgrounds and a balanced territorial politics system should be constructed as soon as possible, which means participants would have the opportunity to modify existing structure via (re)territorialization, so as to achieve the sustainable development in rural areas. The administrative power should be planned to permeaterural areas, who will play a key role in the macroeconomic regulation, encouraging the construction of capital territory with the aim of deepening the cooperation and coordination among interests, and limiting the excessive expansion of villagers’ power.

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    基于Ripley’s K函数的南京市ATM网点空间分布模式研究
    王结臣,卢敏,苑振宇,芮一康,钱天陆
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1843-1849.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.009
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (722KB)

    运用Ripley’s K函数的相关理论,以南京市ATM网点为研究对象,分别从平面与网络空间两种视角,在中心城区范围与主城区范围两种空间尺度上,通过单变量K函数法分析ATM网点的分布模式,通过双变量K函数法分析ATM网点与地铁站点的空间关联情况,最后对计算结果进行评价与分析。研究表明,ATM网点在南京主城区与中心城区均呈现出较强的集聚状态;在一定的距离范围内,ATM网点与地铁站点之间也有较强的依赖关系。同时,对于沿着路网分布的地理空间点状对象而言,利用网络K函数法进行空间点模式分析比用平面K函数法更加符合实际情况。


    Since distributions of many types of urban objects are not random but in some particular patterns, analyzing and revealing the spatial distribution pattern of these points in urban space are essential to understand social, economic and geographical factors behind the distributions, and analysis results are conductive to wide applications such as facility layout and aided decision support. In point pattern analysis, the results may be biased by merely calculating the nearest neighbor distance. The Ripley’s K-function was therefore proposed with advantages of considering the distance between any pair of points. Because many urban points associated with human activities are constrained by road networks, a network K-function, as an extension of traditional planar K-function, is then presented by applying a network distance, i.e., the shortest path distance between any pair of two points. In this article, the Ripley’s K-function was applied to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of ATMs in Nanjing City. First of all, we used both planar univariate K-function and network univariate K-function to analyze the distribution pattern of ATMs at spatial scales of downtown areas and main urban districts. Then we used planar bivariate K-function and network bivariate K-function to investigate the spatial correlation between ATMs and metro stations in main urban districts. Local bivariate (cross) K-functionwas finally applied to explore the impact of metro stations on the ATMs in local areas. The results show that ATMs are highly clustered in both planar and network space and the cluster characteristic is more significant in downtown areas than in main urban areas. Besides, ATMs and metro stations are highly correlated in the study area. With the increase of the measuring distance, the relationship between ATM and metro station distributions shows more obvious characteristic of spatial aggregation within a certain distance. In the analysis of local cross K-function method, ATMs are clustered with metro stations in downtown areas while there is no significant clustering characteristic between ATMs and metro stations on the outskirts. It implies that the distribution of ATMs is mainly determined by the regional commercial development. In addition, for spatial pattern analysis on point objects distributed along road networks, network K-function method is more practical than planar K-function in terms of revealing appropriate distribution pattern and relationship between two types of point objects.

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    江苏文化产业时空格局及其影响因素研究
    孟召宜,渠爱雪,仇方道,马晓冬
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1850-1859.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.010
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (512KB)

    在明晰相关概念基础上,构建文化产业发展水平评价体系,运用定量方法分析江苏文化产业发展水平及其时空格局,研究表明:江苏文化产业发展过程呈现倒“U”型,发展态势显露转型性,发展水平具有非均衡性,发展格局呈现点轴趋向性,发展机制具有明显的外力驱动性。基于此,提出以下建议:强化政府调控,注重政策创新,促进江苏文化产业稳健发展;强化科技人才,注重市场激活,促进江苏文化产业转型发展;实施多元战略,注重因地制宜,实现区域文化产业特色发展;强化区域整合,注重优化布局,实现区域文化产业共同发展。


    Based on theories of scale economy and industrial agglomeration, considering the importance of scale development, garden construction and GDP contributions for the cultural industry at the beginning of its development in China, an evaluation index system for the level of cultural industry is established from the four aspects of scale, vector, efficiency and contribution in this article. At the same time, a factor system is also offered including 3 layers and 15 indices for regional cultural industry, from aspects of cultural resources, infrastructure, cultural demands, innovation and pioneering, policy environment and economy driving, based on “3T” (Technology, Talent and Tolerance) theory, regional innovation environment theory and new industrial region theory. Then, the level and the spatial-temporal pattern of cultural industry in Jiangsu Province are analyzed by using quantitative methods including entropy method, principal component analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis, etc. The results show that the level of cultural industry in Jiangsu Province is gradually improved and its development situation follows an inverted U-shaped, its growth is returning to a new normal of a medium and low speed with a trend of transformational development. At the same time, the level of regional cultural industry is generally not high in Jiangsu Province, also, the level is spatial unbalanced with characteristics of high in the south and low in the north, a spatial pattern of pole-axis structure has been forming and the development situation is taking on a space convergence tread. As for the dynamic mechanism, the external driving force is the main factor to impact the development of cultural industry of Jiangsu Province and the external driving force is the assistant factor. The external driving force significantly affects the development scale of cultural industry, and the internal force could mainly affects the development quality. At the same time, the dynamic mechanism is distinct different in different regions. The analysis show that the external driving force plays a dominant role in the high level region of the southern Jiangsu Province and the internal force does in the low level region of northern Jiangsu Province. Based on this, in the future, external driving forces such as government regulation and policy innovation should be strengthened to promote the steady development of cultural industry, internal forces such as technology talents and market activation should be paid attention to produce the transformational development, pluralistic strategy and principle of adaptation to local conditions should be implemented to gain the regional characteristic development, regional integration and distribution optimization should be enhanced to obtain the common development of regional cultural industry.

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    东北地区城镇化与生态环境的脱钩分析
    刘贺贺,杨青山,张郁
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1860-1869.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.011
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (849KB)

    以2003~2012年东北地区34个地级市数据为基础( 本文提及的地级市包括哈尔滨、长春、沈阳和大连4个副省级城市。),通过构建城镇化指数、生态环境压力指数,分析东北地区的城镇化发展及生态环境压力发展的时空演变特征,测度东北地区城镇化与生态环境的脱钩指数,判断其城镇化与生态环境的脱钩关系并探讨其发生变化的影响因素。结果表明:生态环境压力是城镇化累积作用的结果,呈现出一定的时空滞后效应;近10 a来,东北地区的城市发展经历了城镇化与生态环境由脱钩状态为主体向脱钩状态与负脱钩状态并举的演变过程,城市个体城镇化对生态环境效应的稳定性差;投资驱动、资源型经济、生态环境倒逼和创新转型驱动等是东北地区城镇化对生态环境产生脱钩差异的根本原因。资源型经济和投资驱动是城镇化对生态环境产生压力的主要动因;生态环境倒逼和创新转型发展是摆脱城镇化对生态环境压力的关键动力。


    Based on data from 34 prefecture-level cities in the Northeastern China from 2003 to 2012, this article analyzes the spatiotemporal change characteristics of the urbanization and eco-environmental pressure development in the Northeastern China by building Urbanization Index and Eco-environmental Pressure Index. It also measures urbanization and environmental decoupling indicators, and judges the decoupling state of the urbanization and eco-environmental, then discusses influence factors which lead the state changed. The major findings can be summarized as follows: 1) The ecological stress is the consequence of urbanization accumulation effect, it presents somewhat spatiotemporal hysteresis role. 2) For nearly 10 years, the cities in the northeastern China experienced the evolution of urbanization and eco-environment from dominated decoupling state to both decoupling state and re-coupling state, the stability of the effect of individual urbanization on eco-environment is bad. 3) The reasons for the different effects of urbanization in the Northeastern China on eco-environmental are the diversified driving factors, such as investment-driven approach, resource-based economy, forced eco-environment as well as connotative and innovative development. Resource-based economy and investment-driven approach are main causes of pressure of urbanization on eco-environment. Moreover, there are two reasons influencing the coordinated development of the urbanization and eco-environment, the one is the forced eco-environment, and the other is connotative development.

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    延龙图地区城市生态用地生态重要性空间识别与保护
    李明玉,田丰昊,董玉芝
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1870-1876.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.012
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (524KB)

    采用加权指数求和法,从生态服务功能、景观生态空间格局以及生态敏感性3方面建立生态重要性空间识别指标体系,通过专家咨询和层次分析法确定各评价指标分级赋值标准和权重,结合GIS空间分析功能对“延龙图”(延吉-龙井-图们)地区生态用地的生态重要性进行空间识别,将其划分为3个级别:极重要、重要和一般重要,以反映不同生态用地保护级别和建设管制要求。结果表明,延龙图地区极重要生态用地占生态用地面积的25.720%,主要为耕地、林地和水域;重要生态用地占生态用地面积的39.500%,主要为林地和耕地;一般重要生态用地占生态用地面积的34.780%,以林地为主。


    By using the weighted index summation method, the study applied ecological service function, landscape ecological spatial pattern and ecological sensitivity as indicators to determine the ecologically important space of urban ecological lands. Applying the research method of expert consultation and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to determine both the evaluation criteria and the weight of the evaluation index, and combining spatial analysis of GIS, this article identified the ecologically important space of urban ecological lands in Yanji-Longing-Tumen area. They are categorized into three degrees, i.e. very important, important, generally important, which reflect the protection levels of different ecological lands and the requirements of construction control. The results showed that the very important ecological lands in Yanji-Longing-Tumen account for 25.720%, most of which are cultivated lands, forest lands and water area. The important ecological lands account for 39.500%, most of which are forest lands and cultivated lands. The generally important ecological lands account for 34.780%, which are mainly forest lands. Each of the three types of ecological land had its unique characteristics that required protection by adopting corresponding measures.This study is helpful to trace out the relationships between landscape pattern and ecological process,and provides insights for ecological planning and designing of land consolidation in this area.

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    城市规模与旅游成长空间关系、演变及驱动因子——长江三角洲城市级别体系新认识
    张毓,孙根年
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1877-1884.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.013
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (669KB)

    以“揭示规律、验证规律”为研究逻辑起点,提出“城市规模-旅游成长-城市级别”数理空间分布模型及其时空演变模型,以长江三角洲地区城市体系为例,系统搜集1995~2014年系列基础数据,探讨城市规模与旅游成长的空间关系及其演变机理。结果表明:20 a来长三角地区城市规模、旅游成长、城市级别的数理空间分布呈三段“金字塔”式结构,城市级别越高,分布数量越少; 三元空间关系在演变中,1995~2009时期内的三阶段符合演变模型的A线关系趋向,2010~2014阶段呈“核”式分布,旅游对城市规模存在倒逼效应; 依据城市4个基本象限类分布,级别高的城市分布在类区,类区与类区间存在单向转换与演变关系;对驱动因子剖析,政府政策的倾斜、城市规模效应以及旅游的快速发展共同促成三元关系的演变格局。


    On the basis of the geostatistical method and the Origin technology, the article sets up a mathematical model of spatial distribution of and a space-time process model of “city size-tourism growth-city level” on the basis of “revelation and verification of regularity”. A range of basic data of the year 1995-2014 about the urban system in Yangtze River Delta were collected to explore the spatial relations between city size and tourism growth, and the evolution mechanism. The research results showed that: 1) Since 20 years ago, the mathematical and spatial distributions of city size, tourism growth and city level have been demonstrated as three parts in the shape of pyramid, meaning that the higher city level, the less number of city distribution. And this feature is especially applicable to some big cities with flourishing economy and prosperous tourism. 2) In the ternary spatial relations, three stages during 1995-2009 behaved as the line “A” relations of the evolution model, and this feature is very typical like “A” line in the model. In 2010-2014, the relations graph was in the shape of an oval, indicating that tourism growth forced the expansion of city size. In order to achieve tourism economic benefits, cities has realized by way of increased infrastructure. This is also the embodiment of the economic development cycle feedback model. 3) Based on the distribution of cities in 4 basic quadrants, Quarter I is for cities have highest level. With the expansion of city size and the growing tourism, Quarter IV is related to Quarters II and III. 4) The pattern and evolution about the relationship between city size and tourism growth, is a system within three factors. The higher city level, the government has greater efforts with policy system, power allocation, financial support and resources allocation to accelerate the expansion of cities, and then city size effect has been obvious. The analysis of driving factors shows that support policies adopted by governments, city size and rapid tourism growth have jointly contributed to the evolution of the ternary relations.

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    基于粗糙集和层次分析法的农村居民旅游目的地选择研究
    程静静,胡善风,张圆刚,齐新征,金声琅
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1885-1893.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.014
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (535KB)

    充分考虑主客观因素,运用粗糙集和层次分析法研究农村居民旅游目的地选择影响因子,确定农村居民旅游目的地选择指标体系,并通过评价方法将指标合理化。研究结果表明: 判断矩阵计算的各因素权重结果较为接近,比较理想。农村居民旅游目的地影响因子中的消费水平、旅游景观、旅游氛围均超过0.1,排在前3位,较以往学者研究结果有所变化。农村居民出游对旅游资源偏好较以往有很大改观。旅游目的地的旅游氛围营造等影响因子已经超过了之前农村居民优先考虑的距离因素。对交通条件,住宿水平的影响因子考虑的较少。相对传统的农村居民旅游目的地出游影响因素的研究方法,该方法可以最大限度的避免层次分析法所依赖的专家经验,避免出游因素评价指标设计中出现的重复性。


    With both subjective and objective factors taken into full account, rough set and analytic hierarchy process is applied to the study of influential factors in tourism destination choice of rural residents, so as to determine its index system and rationalize the system through evaluation. The results show that 1) The weights for judging the results of the matrix calculation are similar and reasonable. 2) Among all the aspects which influence the tourism destination of rural residents,the consuming level,land scape, tourism atmosphere account for more than 0.1, being listed within the top three, which is rather different from the former research of other scholars. 3) Compared to the past, the preference of the rural residents’ choice for tourism destination has changed a lot. 4) The tourism atmosphere of the tourism destination effects greatly on the rural residents’ choice of tourism destination,instead of the original consideration of traveling distance. The influence from transportation,accommodation on the choice of tourism destination is comparatively weak. Unlike the traditional research method adopted by other scholars, this research method can maximally avoid the influence of experts experience appearing in Analytic Hierarchy Process Method.

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    张家界旅游产业生成空间时空格局演化与机制研究
    麻学锋,何颖怡
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1894-1902.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.015
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (627KB)

    运用旅游地生命周期理论及哈格特空间结构模式理论,尝试性提出旅游产业生成空间的概念和内涵,剖析其周期性特征。并以张家界为实证研究对象,采用最邻近点距离、重心模型、时间同步性等分析方法,从结构、时间和空间3个维度定量解析了张家界旅游产业生成空间的演变过程,推演出张家界旅游产业生成空间时空格局演化的模式与规律,揭示其格局演化的动力机制。结果显示: 张家界旅游产业生成空间结构总体呈凝聚型分布,内部为“两均两凝”型,重心位置具有明显的周期性移动表征,且空间内部同步性较好,但差异性特征较强; 张家界旅游产业生成空间时空格局演化经历了出现期点状→生成期核心-边缘→发展期双核两翼东西联动的周期性模式。旅游地地理尺度上 “集聚力”、“路径依赖”和“旅游价值链”是推动张家界旅游产业生成空间演化的综合作用结果。


    This article firstly specifies the space content of tourism industry generation, analyzes its cyclical characteristics, and then reveals spatial evolution process and pattern of tourism industry generation from its structure and spatio-temporal characteristics in Zhangjiajie City, using methods of adjacent point distance, gravity model and time synchronization. Based on indigenous and exogenous environment impact factors, the article also analyzes evolution mechanism of tourism pattern change. Spatial structure of tourism industry generation in this city presents condense distribution, with internal pattern of "two are average, two are condense". Gravity of tourism space is in northeast part, and gradually moves towards southwest with quicker moving to south. Gravity is in Wulingyuan district within the appearing and generating period and moving to Yongding district when developing. Tourism industry generation has a good synchronization, but the difference is also stronger. Spatio-temporal evolution patterns of tourism generation space change from point to core-periphery and to "two cores and two wings" and interaction between eastern part and western part. This evolution pattern results from interaction between internal and external influencing factors.

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    珠江口湾区海岸线及沿岸土地利用变化遥感监测与分析
    王琎,吴志峰,李少英,王帅帅,张晓诗,高群
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1903-1911.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.016
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    利用遥感、GIS技术对珠江口湾区1960~2012年海岸线以及海岸带土地利用进行监测,通过定量化、空间化方法监测海岸线和土地利用的时空变化,并分析二者的关系,进而探究珠江口湾区海岸线变迁的原因。研究结果表明,1960~2012年,珠江口湾区海岸线长度由1 134.95 km增至1 508.02 km,在此期间,湾区新增的陆地面积为878.11 km2;从空间上看,广州、珠海及深圳市在珠江口五市中不仅海岸线增长幅度较显著,新增陆地面积也较大; 1960~2012年,珠江口湾区建设用地扩张幅度非常大,增长了33.05倍,城镇建设和农业发展等人类活动是52 a来珠江口湾区海岸线发生显著变化的重要原因。


    Coastline is the sea-land demarcation line in coastal regions. The position and shape of coastline depends on various natural and anthropogenic factors. The change of coastline exerts obvious influence on environment and economy in coastal regions. Therefore, it is important to detect and analysis the change of coastline and landuse for coastal environment and sustainable development. The Pearl River Estuary Gulf (PREG), the core region of Greater Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, is one of the most prosperous and fastest growing regions in China. The coastline and land use in PREG have changed remarkably and continuously during the past decades. In this research, the change of coastline and land use in 1960-2012 was detected with RS and GIS. Furthermore, coastline characteristics of temporal and spatial variation were analyzed with quantitative and spatial approach. And the relationship between the changes of coastline and land use was explored. Finally, the impact that urban expansion brought to landscape in coastal zone was quantitatively analyzed. 1) In 1960-2012, the length of coastline in PREG increased from 1 134.95 km to 1 508.02 km with annul increasing speed of 7.17 km/a. Relatively, the coastline changed more obvious in three period (2004-2006, 2006-2008 and 2008-2010). The annual average change rate of coastline in the three period were -3.45%, 2.85% and 2.98%, respectively. After 2010, the speed of coastline change in PREG became lower. 2) In 1960-2012, the coastline had a greater increasing amount in the cities of Zhuhai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, where the length of coastline increased by 60.81%, 22.00% and 19.71%, respectively. 3) In 1960-2012, Nansha in Guangzhou, south Zhuhai and Qianhai in Shenzhen gained more newly-added land than any other area in PREG. Their land area increased from 172.34 km2 to 303.22 km2, 344.70 km2 to 603.29 km2 and 89.62 km2 to 145.49 km2, respectively. 4) In PREG, construction land expanded 33 times in 1960-2012. In the meanwhile, the area of forest and farm land decreased by 47.53% and 56.70%, respectively. 5) In 1960-1979, the total area of newly-added land in PREG was 231.53 km2, where farm land accounted for 61.07%. In 1979-1990, the total area of newly-added land was 224.82 km2, where aquafarm land accounted for 51.44%. From 1990 to 2000, the total area of newly-added land was 321.42 km2, where farm/aquafarm land accounted 61.07%. It can be known that the land demand for agricultural development was the key factor that changed coastline in PREG before 2000. From 2000 to 2012, the total area of newly-added land was 100.34 km2, where construction land accounted for 51.30%. Since 2000, land demand for urban construction has been the key factor that changed coastline in PREG. In conclusion, human activities, including agricultural development and urban construction, largely resulted in the significant change of coastline in PREG.

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    土地规划的自然过程基础与大数据时代的方法探索
    单卫东,胡月明,贺灿飞,曹小曙,黄贤金,童昕,吴常艳
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1912-1919.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.017
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (542KB)

    随着城市化与工业化程度不断加深,产业空间结构不断重组,导致土地供需矛盾日益突出,国土资源无序开发日益严重,因而优化国土资源空间格局,成为生态文明建设的首要任务。同时,科学合理配置土地资源对土地规划提出了更高要求,传统土地规划方法有待改革。在基于尊重自然、顺应自然的开发理念下,总结土地自然过程基础对土地规划的影响,实现“山水路林田生命共同体”的协调规划发展。其次,“大数据”时代的来临,云计算、空间数据整合、云分析等技术对土地规划方法提供新的技术支撑;最后,针对土地规划数据特殊性、移动用户终端的广泛性,提出应创建土地规划云服务平台,使土地规划实现数据集成管理和更新,从而提高土地规划质量。


    With the further process of urbanization and industrialization, the structure of industrial space has been restructuring, which leads to a sharp contradictions between demand and supply of land resources. Because of this serious disorder development of land resources, it is a primary task of ecological civilization to optimize the spatial pattern of land resources.Meanwhile, a higher requirement of land use planning is needed to allocate scientifically and reasonably land resources. Therefore, the traditional methods of land use planning need to be reformed. In this paper, in order to achieve the purpose of coordination development based on the strategy of ‘Community life of mountain-water-forest-cropland-lake’, we follow the concept of respecting and conforming to nature, and summarize the impact of land-based physical process on land use planning. Moreover, with the advent of the era of ‘big data’, we find that many technical methods, such as cloud computing, spatial data integration, cloud analysis, provide a new technical support to land use planning.Finally, considering the special characteristic of land use planning data and mobile user terminal is needed, we suggest that cloud services platform should be created, which enables integrated management and updating data of land planning, thereby, it will improve the quality of land use planning.

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    全新世巢湖沉积物炭屑记录的火环境变化
    吴立,张梦翠,计超,张诗陶
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1920-1928.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.018
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (866KB)

    通过对巢湖湖泊沉积岩芯不同粒级炭屑浓度和磁化率等指标变化的研究,揭示了全新世以来的区域火环境变化及人类活动影响。结果表明: 全新世早期,气候由寒冷干旱向温暖湿润过渡,但仍较为干旱,炭屑浓度也相对略高,火活动比较频繁,地方性和区域性火时有发生; 全新世中期是最温暖湿润的适宜期,炭屑浓度出现全新世以来的低值,火活动微弱,但在文化兴盛时期炭屑浓度出现峰值,则归因于人类活动的影响;全新世晚期,在气候趋于凉干的环境背景下,人类活动的增强更加剧了火活动的频率和强度,炭屑浓度大幅增加; 近200 a炭屑浓度的降低可能与湖区附近已没有足够生物量引起火灾有关。


    By analyzing the concentration of different-sized charcoals and magnetic susceptibility of the CH-1 core from the Chaohu Lake during the Holocene, the laws of charcoal content and the features of fire environmental changes were studied. In the early Holocene (9 870-6 040 cal. a BP), the climate was still dry although it was becoming warmer and wetter. The dry climate apparently creating the favorable conditions for natural fires to occur, which suggested the charcoal concentration was high. The middle Holocene (6 040-2 170 cal. aBP) was the warmest and wettest period during the Holocene, and very little charcoal was found in the core with the exception of cultural phases because the high precipitation during this period apparently suppressed natural fires. But human activities increased the fire frequency during the cultural phase. Archaeological investigations indicate that a large number of settlement sites distribute around the Chaohu Lake. Moreover, the remains of the Lingjiatan Culture (5 500-5 300 cal. a BP) are also identified with the presence of many types of exquisite jade objects. So value peaks in the charcoal concentration were showed. During the late Holocene (2 170 cal. a BP~), the climate became drier and cooler and conditions were once again favorable for fires to occur naturally. The water level of the Chaohu Lake reached the lowest as the lakebed possibly exposed. The concentration of charcoal in the core greatly increased during this period that showed the greatest levels of fire activity. Therefore, the great amount of charcoal concentration was related to both the drier climate and the increased human activities. These correlate well with the results from the archaeological evidence of ancient Juchao City. During the recent two hundred years, the amount of charcoal concentration sharply decreased and fire occurrence disappeared gradually because there was not enough biomass in the Chaohu Lake Region.

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    基于增量段式的地形数据存储模型设计及算法实现
    李朝奎,方军,殷智慧,张新长,李慧婷
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1929-1936.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.019
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (744KB)

    在研究地形多分辨率细节层次模型构建理论的基础上,提出了结合地形特征的模型细节层次的细分过程,改进了基于外存的数据存储设计方法。设计了基于增量段式存储的数据组织方式,研究了地形数据绘制过程中的裂缝现象,引入模型高度损失误差计算方法,通过采用增删高程点的办法,消除了绘制图形中的裂缝。以某地区的DEM数据为实验数据,采用C++和OpenGL编程实现了地形的绘制。结果表明:本存储策略优于传统存储策略,通过增量段式的形式存储不同分辨率的高程点,重叠的高程值不再重复存储,以节约外存空间,减少了数据冗余度,I/O操作时间提高率为25%。且随着数据量增加,I/O操作时间提高效率更为显著。该存储设计将物理分块、逻辑分层、索引检索方法结合在一起使用,在减少外存占用率、降低数据量加载的同时,也提高了数据扩展的灵活性。当增加地形分块时,不会影响原有分块和存储结构。实验效果与原始地形非常相似,保证了生成的细节层次模型的真实性。此外,针对DEM实验数据,在加载非相邻分辨率等级层次的数据时,地形绘制过程出现裂缝的问题,通过删除高程点的办法来消除裂缝,取得了很好的实验效果。


    This article improved data storage design based on external storage when building the details of multi-resolution hierarchy model. However, it also designed a special organization model based on incremental Segments. Meanwhile, by studying the crack phenomenon in the process of terrain rendering, the model error of height loss calculation to solve this problem of cracks has been introduced in this article. Finally, the effectiveness of the model and storage strategy has been verified in this paper with the data of DEM in a region as the experimental data. And it also achieved the terrain rendering through the programming language of C++ and OpenGL. In this article, the storage strategy, which is superior to the traditional storage manner, can save the storage space peripheral (SSP). That is a manner for incremental sections storage to elevation point of different resolution and non-overlapping storage to elevation values. By this strategy, it can reduce the amount of data redundancy and improve the I/O operation time (improving rate is 25%), and more the operating time efficiency can be significantly improved with increase of data. The storage design not only reduces the SSP occupancy rate and the amount of data loading, but also improves the flexibility of data extension. Moreover, there is no affect to the original block and storage structure when increasing the terrain block. Finally experimental effect is very similar to the original terrain, which guarantees the authenticity of the level of detail model. In addition, the terrain rendering process, considering the DEM data, will make crack when loading the non-contiguous resolution data hierarchy. Concerning this issue, the wonderful experiment results can be obtained by eliminating the cracking in the manner of removing the elevation point.

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    念青唐古拉山脉西段雪线高度变化遥感观测
    张其兵,康世昌,张国帅
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (12): 1937-1944.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.020
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (859KB)

    利用Landsat TM/ETM+/8 OLI和HJ1A遥感影像资料作为数据源,通过目视解译方法,提取念青唐古拉山脉西段雪线高度变化值,同时对研究区周边气温与降水变化趋势进行分析,研究其与冰川变化的关系。结果表明:2004~2013年北坡13条冰川和南坡15条冰川的雪线高度都呈升高的趋势;从整体上来考察,北坡雪线高度升高值为14 m/a,南坡升高值为4.9 m/a,北坡升高速度比南坡快;自1964年以来,研究区气温升高趋势显著,降水增加不明显,气候变暖是冰川退缩的主要原因;北坡冰川比南坡冰川经历更大的物质负平衡,主要是由于气温的升高率北坡比南坡快所致。


    Glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau have experienced change in recent decades with the climate change, and the change trend were not homogeneous. The variation of snow line altitude (SLA) can indicate the glacier change. The changes of SLA for glaciers in the western Nyainqentanglha Range can be detected by remote sensing images obtained at the end of ablation season, such as Landsat TM/ETM+/8 OLI and HJ1A images, when eye interpretation technologywere used to extract snow line. Meanwhile, the variation trend of temperature and precipitation recorded by 4 meteorological stations adjacent to the research area were analyzed, so as to find its influence on glacier change. The results showed that SLA of total studied 28 glaciers rose obviously in 2004-2013. SLA on north slope as a whole raised 14 m/a, while 4.9 m/a on south slope. The air temperature in the studied area rose obviously, precipitation rose slowly since 1964. Climate warming is the main cause for glacier recession. Glaciers on north slope experienced more negative mass balance than south slope, because the rate of air temperature increase on the north is higher than that on the south.

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