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  • 地理科学
      2018年, 第38卷, 第2期 刊出日期:2018-02-12 上一期    下一期
    选择: 合并摘要 显示图片
    转型期城市居住用地更新的空间加密化研究——广州市金花街改造再考
    郭友良,李郇
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 161-167.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.001
    摘要   HTML   PDF (839KB)

    选择具有代表性的广州市金花街改造项目(1988~2003年)为案例研究对象,分析了政府主导下改造方案的调整过程和改造空间特征,探讨居民诉求和政府旧改政策对旧城空间的影响。研究表明:金花街居民的原地安置诉求和城市政府依此设计的以民生为导向的改造安排,乃是影响旧城空间的重要原因;在准市场化融资方式和福利化拆迁安置方式下,城市政府提出的有关提供公共服务设施、解决居民临时安置问题和让居民原地安置的要求,使改造规划多次提高改造容积率,以保持改造经济平衡;改造后的金花街在房屋和人口两个维度呈现空间加密化的态势,即存在原地安置房叠加融资商品房、原地安置居民叠加购房迁入居民的社会空间现象,金花街改造并未出现以外来中产人口大规模替代原住低收入人口为基本特征的绅士化过程。最后,从引入转让开发权和鼓励微改造两方面对当前广州的旧城改造提出政策建议。


    This article studies the effects of residents' demands and municipal government's value preference in policy-making on the space of inner city in urban regeneration. Through the case study of Jinhua Neighbourhood redevelopment project in Guangzhou, this study analyses the process of redevelopment plan adjustment and the resultant spatial characteristics under the dominance of municipal government, and attributes the high redevelopment FAR to local residents' demands for livelihoods and municipal government's people-oriented redevelopment arrangements. Specifically, based on the redevelopment framework of quasi-market financing and welfare-oriented housing demolition and resettlement, requirements being made on developers by the municipal government regarding the provision of public service facilities as well as the offering of interim houses and subsidies and on-site resettlement to relocated residents have in turn forced the municipal government to increasingly raise the redevelopment FAR to keep the redevelopment economics in equilibrium. In the aspects of buildings and populations, the Jinhua Neighbourhood redevelopment represents a densification of space, namely, an urban social spatial phenomenon about infilling on-site resettlement buildings with financing buildings, and infilling on-site resettlement populations with house buyers, which indicates that the Jinhua Neighbourhood redevelopment is by no means a process of gentrification featured by the local indigenous people being edged out of their community by the middle-class group. In the end, this article puts forward some suggestions on current urban policy of Guangzhou.

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    中国地市工业集聚与污染排放的空间特征及计量检验
    胡志强,苗健铭,苗长虹
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 168-176.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.002
    摘要   HTML   PDF (719KB)

    采用空间分析和计量模型等方法,研究中国285个地级及以上城市工业集聚和污染排放的空间特征及内在关系,结果表明:工业集聚与污染排放的重心分布、轨迹、距离、速度差异较大。东部的工业集聚水平高于中西部,工业污染中西部更突出。工业集聚与污染排放总体呈负相关关系,局域上分为低高、高低、低低3种关联类型。工业集聚在全国及东中西部均有利于降低工业污染,但是对不同区域减排作用的大小有所不同,作用由大到小依次是西部、中部和东部。 对于工业污染的防治,应继续走集聚化道路。东部要优化产业结构,控制合理的集聚规模;中西部应加强产业集聚,提高技术溢出的污染减排效应。


    Since the reform and opening, industrialization has promoted the rapid growth of China’s economy. However, the industrial pollution made by industrial development has caused a great pressure on the environment and a series of environmental problems. The relationship between industrial scale and industrial pollutant emissions will be different due to the difference of regional development stage, industrial structure, technological level and pollution control. The total amount of industrial pollutant emissions in China is very different, and there exists an obvious mismatch between industrial pollutant emissions and industrial agglomeration level. This research focuses on the following questions: What is the spatial distribution of industrial agglomeration and industrial pollutant emissionsin China? What is their spatial correlation? By using the methods of gravity analysis of geographic concentration, spatial correlation, econometric model, and the data of 285 cities in China from 2003 to 2013, this article studied the spatial distribution characteristics and spatial correlation of industrial agglomeration and emissions of industrial wastewater and industrial SO2, and examined the role of industrial agglomeration level on industrial pollutant emissions. The main conclusions are as following: 1) The gravity center of industrial agglomeration and pollutant emissions is different in distribution, trajectory, distance and speed. The gravity center of industrial agglomeration level first shifted north and then southward. The gravity center of industrial waste water is moving southward. The industrial SO2 pollution shows the “S” movement trajectory. The gravity center of industrial agglomeration level moves longer and faster. 2) The industrial concentration level in the eastern region is higher than that in the middle and western region, and the intensity of industrial pollutant emissions is more prominent in the western and middle region. 3) There is a negative correlation between industrial agglomeration level and industrial pollutant emission intensity, there exists three types of spatial match between the level of industrial pollutant emission intensity and industrial agglomeration, which are high-low, low-high and low-low. 4) Industrial agglomeration is beneficial to reduce industrial pollutant emissions in the whole country and different regions. Industrial agglomeration has a greater effect on industrial pollutant emission reduction in the western and middle than in the east region. 5) To control industrial pollutant emission, China should continue to promote the industrial agglomeration and take different measures according to local conditions. In eastern China, efforts should be made to the control of the scale of industrial agglomeration, the optimizing of the industrial structure and the using of the positive externalities. The middle and western regions should further increase the concentration of industry, and promote the effect on emission reduction of technological spillover and technological advancements.

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    海洋产业影响省域经济增长估计及其分异动因判识
    马仁锋,候勃,张文忠,袁海红,窦思敏
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 177-185.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.003
    摘要   HTML   PDF (510KB)

    采用静态和动态计量方法分析2006~2015年海洋经济对沿海省(市、区)经济发展的影响程度并通过空间计量方法识别差异动因。研究发现:海洋经济对中国省域经济发展具有显著地影响,其中天津、上海、福建、山东、广东、海南海洋经济总量贡献率高于全国平均水平;省域海洋产业对区域经济影响度分异呈现省际绝对差异不断扩大、相对差异不断缩小,且具有显著的空间相关性;引起省域经济增长差异的海洋经济相关因素中,海洋第二产业、海洋进出口贸易额等起到正向促进作用(即拉大差异),且海洋第二产业结构具有显著的溢出效应。相关发现有助于中国沿海省(市、区)经济的协调发展和科学决策。


    By analyzing the economic impact of marine industry on coastal provinces, the arcitle examines the spatial correlation of per capita GDP, establishes a spatial econometric model, and then analyzes the spatial and temporal differentiation of the marine industry and the causes of the regional economic growth (2006-2015). Choosing the coastal provinces (cities) as the research unit. This study found that: 1) Comprehensive portrayal of the contribution rate of the marine economy to the provincial economy and the static and dynamic measurement results of marine economy promoting regional economic growth. We found that the marine economy in coastal provinces (cities) has a significant impact on provincial economic growth, and the degree of promotion is different. In addition, the contribution rate of marine economy to provincial economy in Tianjin, Shanghai, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Hainan is higher than the national average rate. Further, the differences in the influence degree of the marine industry on the regional economy shows that the absolute difference between the provinces is expanding and the relative difference is shrinking, and there is significant spatial correlation. 2) The related factors of the Marine economy may give rise to the difference of provincial economic growth, we have found that the second marine industry, marine import and export trade volume both play a positive role in promoting regional economy. While the first and tertiary industries of marine economy have a hindrance to the differences in provincial economic growth. And the secondary industry of marine economy has obvious positive spillover effect on the surrounding areas, while the estimated parameters of the employment situation, the fiscal revenue and the education basic situation in the coastal areas are not significant in the spatial measurement model. 3) The results of the four spatial econometric models show that most of the explanatory variables pass the significance testing and they are in line with the actual situation. Durbin space error model estimation results overall is superior to the other models, the error of spatial Durbin model identify the Marine economy factors influencing the regional economic growth differences includes not only the neighboring regions of the economy themselves, but also the surrounding provinces of the relevant explanatory variables. Basing on the analysis of the economic growth difference and the contribution rate of the marine economy in the coastal provinces, the article draws the focus of narrowing the development gap of marine industry in the coastal provinces and cities to promote the coordinated development of China's coastal zone. That is, to cultivate the marine economic potential of provincial economic growth. Related findings are helpful for understanding the balanced development and making scientific decision-making of Marine economy in coastal cities and provinces in China.

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    中国省域消费水平及影响因素的时空异质性分析
    刘帅宾,李在军,周年兴,杨山
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 186-194.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.004
    摘要   HTML   PDF (1405KB)

    针对1978~2015年间中国省域消费水平及影响因素的时空异质性分析表明:消费水平格局呈明显的东西与南北集聚态势,并以东西格局为主;时序上,消费水平格局不断发生分化或翻转。消费水平的影响因素不仅相互之间存在差异,而且相同影响因素也存在时空异质性,表现对不同时段和不同等级消费地区的作用程度并不一致。不同等级消费地区应实施相宜的产业、就业政策,不断完善低消费地区物流网络、提升高消费地区商品国内外流通程度,促进中等消费地区农村转移人口的消费潜力持续释放。


    Consumption is an important part of market economy. It is not only an important driving force for economic growth, but also can reflect the rationality of activities of economic production distribution and contribute to evaluating the effect of policy of regional balance development. With China's foreign trade faces increasing challenge, domestic demand has become an important driving force for economic growth. This paper analyzes the evolution of consumption level space at the provincial scale from 1978 to 2015 in China by using empirical orthogonal model (EOF). In order to effectively diagnose the impact degree of influencing factors on regional consumption level under the condition of spatial heterogeneity, this article also constructs the panel quantile regression model to explain the difference of provincial consumption level. The results showed that: 1) Consumption level space presents significantly clustered trend in east-west and south-north, especially in east-west. However, this phenomenon is not permanent; it will vary or be conversed with time. During this process, the policy of consumption and regional development play an important role. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, the policy that government encouraging eastern coastal areas in China take the lead in development, make the pattern of China’s consumption level changed around 1994. After world financial crisis in 2008, the government’s policy of expanding domestic demand has promoted the further differentiation of the consumption level pattern. 2) The result of panel quintile regression reveals the complexity mechanisms of consumption, not only the effects of different influencing factors are different, but also the effect of same influencing factor is different in different regions and period. The effects of influencing factor are different in different regions of consumption level and different period. The developments of second and third industries are the main influencing factors of regional consumption level, especially for the low consumption areas after 1994. The effect of traffic convenience on consumption is improving. The total volume of import and export has significantly positive effect on consumption in two periods, its effect is better in high level of consumption in recently. Although the ratio of employees to total population has only significantly positive effect on the high level of consumption, the influence degree is improving. Urbanization has significantly positive effect on consumption, but the trend of influence degree vary as “U” type with the level of regional consumption levels. 3) For the high level of consumption area, the measures should be aimed to improve the quality of industrial development, the quality of employment and international circulation of commodities. For low level of consumption area, the measures should be aimed to expand the industrial scale, transportation network, employment scale. At last, governments should strength integration of urban and rural, release the consumption potential of rural migrants, especially for the middle level consumption areas.

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    长江中游城市群城市人居环境演变及驱动力研究
    杨晴青,陈佳,李伯华,朱媛媛
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 195-205.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.005
    摘要   HTML   PDF (1063KB)

    从生态、居住、公共服务、休闲环境等人居环境核心系统出发,综合运用AHP、地理探测器方法,对长江中游城市群城市人居环境时空演变过程、核心驱动力、驱动机理进行了系统研究。研究表明:① 城市人居环境综合质量格局呈现出西北部相对下降,东南部逐渐提升的过程,优质的人居环境逐步向环鄱阳湖地区及京广线沿线集中分布;生态环境质量格局逐渐呈现以襄阳-吉安连线为界,东侧质量显著优于西侧的格局。京广线沿线城市的居住、公共服务质量始终优于江西片区浙赣线沿线城市,但休闲环境质量则逐渐劣于江西片区浙赣沿线;城市人居环境演变驱动力作用对象、程度、方向各异。其中经济发展、政府投入为城市人居环境演变的主导动力,社会群体收支为其内部关键动力,而土地供给与建设投资为现阶段次要动力,此外,城市规模通过集聚、催化作用推动城市人居环境的演变。


    This article follows the main line of "setting up evaluation framework→describing the evolution process→detection of core dynamics→analytical driving mechanism". In the view of the core areas about urban human settlement, such as ecological, residential, public services, leisure, this article has made a systematic study on the evolution of urban human settlements at the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, such as the spatial and temporal evolution process, the key factors and the driving mechanism, by using the methods about AHP, comprehensive fuzzy evaluation, Pearson correlation analysis. Research shows that: 1) urban human settlement comprehensive quality pattern shows a process that the quality of the northwest area has been relatively reduced and the quality of the southeast region has been gradually improved. High quality of urban human settlement gradually are concentrated in the Poyang Lake urban circle and the areas along the Beijing-Guangzhou line. 2) The pattern of ecological environment quality gradually is divided by Xiangyang-Ji’an line, and the quality of the eastern side of the dividing line is significantly better than that of the west side. The spatial and temporal patterns of living and public service environment are similar, and the leisure environment is opposite to that of the two. The main feature is residential quality and public service quality of the cities along the Beijing-Guangzhou railway line is always better than that of along the Zhejiang-Jiangxi railway line in Jiangxi, but the quality of leisure environment gradually has been inferior to the cities along the Zhejiang-Jiangxi in Jiangxi. 3) The evolution of urban human settlement is the result of multiple factors, and the object, degree and direction of each driving force are different. Among them, economic development, government investment is the dominant power of the urban human settlement evolution, the social group's revenue and expenditure is the key motive force, and the land supply and construction investment are the subordination driving forces of the present stage. In addition, the scale of the city promotes the evolution of the urban human settlement through the agglomeration and the catalysis.

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    援藏与西藏自治区经济发展耦合协调分析
    周春山,余波,史晨怡,王宇渠
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 206-213.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.006
    摘要   HTML   PDF (638KB)

    以西藏自治区74个县(市、区)为研究对象,运用灰色关联分析,建立援藏与西藏自治区经济发展耦合关联指标体系,分析了2000~2014年援藏与西藏自治区经济发展各要素之间的关联性;在此基础上,构建耦合度模型与协调指数模型,分析援藏与西藏自治区经济发展的时空耦合协调特征。结果表明:援藏与各县(市、区)的经济发展关联度在0.687~0.750之间,具有较强的正向关联。其中,财政转移支付对自治区经济发展的影响尤为显著,并且援藏在经济实力与乡村经济方面的绩效更为明显;2000年以来,援藏与西藏自治区经济发展耦合度始终处于中度以上水平,协调指数也持续上升,援藏与西藏自治区经济发展逐渐达到高级协调状态;2014年,各县区援藏与经济发展耦合度处于中度以上水平,但协调指数处在中级以下。西藏自治区划分为良好协调、初级协调、勉强协调以及濒临失调4种协调发展区,勉强协调区为主;高海拔及边境地区耦合作用略强于其他地区,但协调指数较低;自然条件好的河谷地区表现出较大的内部差异,高协调指数呈现趋中心性。


    Aiding Tibet has a strong relationship with the economic development in Tibet Autonomous Region, so it is both theoretically and practically necessary to study the coupling and coordinating process over time and space between them when it comes to the relationship between policy and local development and the implementation and perfection of aiding Tibet work. This paper takes 74 counties (cities, districts) of Tibet Autonomous Region as investigated subjects. With the support of gray correlation analysis method, this paper analyzes the correlation and interaction between aiding Tibet and Tibetan economic development during 2000-2014 by establishing an index system for aiding Tibet in terms of five aspects, including fiscal transfer payment, infrastructure, public facilities, favor of loan, construction and installation investment along with Tibetan economic development in terms of four aspects, including economic strength, economic vitality, economic structure and rural economy. Based on the gray correlation analysis, the paper further explores the relationship between aiding Tibet and economic development by establishing the coupling degree model and coordinating index model, focusing on the coupling and coordination process and trends as well as the spatial distribution of coupling index and coordinating index. The results show that: 1) there is strong positive correlation between aiding Tibet and economic development with the correlation degree averaging from 0.687 to 0.750. The impact of financial transfer payment on the economic development is particularly significant, following by the impact of favor of loan, public facilities and infrastructure. Meanwhile, aiding Tibet has more obvious effects on economic strength and rural economy. 2) Since the 21th century, the coordinating index between aiding Tibet and economic development has been showing a rising trend, indicating the gradually coordinating trend with each other. 3) In 2014, the coupling degree of every county (city, district) is above the medium level but the coordinating index is below the medium level. Specifically, higher altitude area and border area have higher coupling degree but lower coordinating index. There exist obvious spatial differences in coupling and coordination indexes inside the Brahmaputra River and its four branches area, with higher coordinating indexes generally tending to the political and economic centers. Based on the coupling degree and coordinating index, the paper also divides Tibet Autonomous Region into four regions: better coordinating region, primary coordinating region, barely coordinating region and little coordinating region. Almost 68.919% of the counties (cities, districts) distribute in the barely coordinating region and only Chengguan district in Lhasa is the better coordinating area. Finally, some suggestion is proposed on aiding Tibet.

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    中国科技创新与可持续发展耦合协调及时空分异研究
    赵传松,任建兰,陈延斌,刘凯
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 214-222.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.007
    摘要   HTML   PDF (795KB)

    在探讨科技创新与可持续发展相互作用机理的基础上,以中国1995~2014年科技创新与可持续发展的相关数据为依据,运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型和探索性空间数据分析方法,分析科技创新与可持续发展的耦合协调度和时空分异特征。结果表明:科技创新和可持续发展的综合发展指数表现出明显正相关关系,在整体发展和分段演化中均表现出较高一致性,耦合协调度呈稳步上升态势,且已进入高度耦合协调阶段。科技创新与可持续发展耦合协调度在空间上呈现弱正相关关系,空间集聚程度不显著,且随时间推移空间集聚现象并没有得到增强。从时空演变格局来看,局部空间自相关规律性明显,虽然不同集聚区在时空演变中都表现出一定的扩张和收缩,但在总体空间格局上呈现“东高西低”的发展态势,且东西部的差距在逐渐缩小。


    'There would be no sustainable development without science', which has been proposed by UNESCO at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. The relationship between scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development has become an important part of sustainable development theory. Both of them have natural interaction and mutual relations, restricting and promoting each other. Sustainable development goals can be achieved through scientific and technological innovations, and scientific and technological innovations maintain positive interaction with society for recognition and support by the concept of sustainable development. Based on Chinese relevant data about scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development from 1995 to 2014, this paper analyzes the interaction mechanism of scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development. Using entropy method, coupling coordination degree model and exploratory data analysis method, this paper analyzes the coupling degree and spatio-temporal differentiation of scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development, and comes to the following conclusion. At first, scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development shows a positive correlation and a high consistency in both sectional evolution and overall development, and the coupling coordination degree tends to rise to a stage of highly coupling and coordinating steadily. Secondly, the coupling degree of scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development shows a weak positive correlation in space, the degree of spatial agglomeration is not significant, and the spatial clustering distribution has not enhanced with time. Finally, from the perspective of spatial and temporal evolution, the local spatial autocorrelation regularity is obvious. The regional scale of HH gradually spreads, and mainly concentrates in the eastern coastal areas; LH area, which concentrates in the central and western regions, is the most extensive, and shows the situation from the scattered to the contiguous; LL regional range changes significantly with the overall shrinking trend, and the spatial distribution transits from midwest to northwest region; HL area is relatively less stable, and the scope tends to focus on the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Although the different agglomeration areas show expansion and contraction in the evolution of time and space, the general spatial pattern is high in east and low in west, and the gap between east and west is gradually narrowing. Accordingly, HH area should continue to maintain good momentum of development, and play a leading role in technology diffusion and radiation. Meanwhile, LL area should be further developed due to the policy support of the country to increase R&D investment and to focus on the introduction of technology digestion and absorption, and this area should learn advanced experience actively and dock industry shift from eastern coastal areas. With scientific and technological innovation, this area will change the development way to achieve the corner overtaking. HL and LH areas should strengthen cross-regional cooperation and enhance hard and soft power to promote coordinated development of scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development.

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    中国省域信息流、资金流强度的空间差异——以2015年京东手机交易为例
    金彪,颜丽玲,沙晋明,姚志强
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 223-232.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.008
    摘要   HTML   PDF (930KB)

    以京东七大物流中心及其覆盖范围划分省市群。将抓取得到的京东商城2015年手机交易记录与中国统计年鉴相关数据相结合,研究影响信息流和资金流(简称“双流”)强度的可能因素,重点分析省域层面“双流”强度的空间差异,研究结果表明:信息基础设施、经济发展水平等已取代地理距离,成为影响“双流”强度的主要因素;广东、北京、上海、江苏、浙江等省市为“双流”核心区;网络资金流量分层现象明显,呈“金字塔”形分布;各省市群之间的空间联系存在差异,北京、上海、广东所在省市群的空间联系明显高于其它省市群;各省市群内部成员发展不平衡,中心省市对“双流”贡献力最大。


    227 562 transaction records about mobile phones in 2015 has been fetched from Jingdong Mall website by using the web crawler in this article. Then, these records were used together with some relevant data in the China Statistical Yearbook 2015, while ArcGIS software was used to reflect some relevant information in the geographical space. Then the following content are analyzed: 1) The possible factors which may have an impact on the intensity of information flow and capital flow (for the convenience of description, the follow-up referred to as the “Two Flows”) and the space likage degree were analyzed by using SPSS and other tools; 2) The spatial difference of the “Two Flows” was studied, while the Gini coefficient was introduced to evaluate its spatial concentration; 3) The province groups have been divided according to the seven logistics centers of Jingdong Mall and their business coverage, and then the network space differences between each province/city group was analyzed; 4) The Theil index was introduced to analyze the internal differences of each province/city group. The results show that: 1) The intensity of the “Two Flows” could be affected by some factors such as the level of information infrastructure, economic development and residents’ consumption; 2) There is obvious spatial differences in the intensity of the “Two Flows”, however, from a national point of view, it has a high degree of spatial concentration, where the core active area are mainly concentrated in Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Zhejiang and other provinces; 3) There is also a time difference in the intensity of the “Two Flows”, appearing as that the intensity in the second half of the year is much stronger than that in the first half; 4) The capital flow in the network space appears obvious stratification phenomenon and assumes the “pyramid” shape distribution: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shandong, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Hebei, Zhejiang, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Henan, Anhui, Shaanxi and other provinces are in the middle or upper layer of the “pyramid”, while western provinces and some central provinces are at the bottom; 5) From the top of the “pyramid” to the bottom, their members’ contribution to the whole capital flow reduce gradually. 6) Taken the seven province groups as a whole, there is difference in the degree of spatial linkage: the members of those groups where Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong Province included are more closely related to each other than others; 7) Thinking each province group singly, the development level of its members is unbalanced, appearing that the central provinces have the greatest contribution to the “Two Flows”; 8) The geographical distance has been replaced by the level of information infrastructure and economic development, and is no longer the main factor that affects the intensity of the “Two Flows”. In view of above analysis, this article thinks the “area responsible scheme” should be adopt to strengthen communication between the relevant provinces who are at different layers in the “pyramid”, and enhance the promotion and draw function of those provinces who at a higher layer to the lowers, thereby reducing the space differences of “Two Flows” between different provinces in intensity.

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    高铁对县域经济增长溢出效应的影响研究——以福建省为例
    李新光,黄安民
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 233-241.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.009
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    搜集福建省58个县级市的面板数据,采用两机制空间面板杜宾模型,同时考虑空间邻接和区域通达时间距离两种权重来检验高铁开通对地区经济增长溢出效应的影响。结果发现,福建县域经济增长存在明显的空间集聚性和正向空间溢出效应,通过高铁缩短城市间的通达时间比简单的相邻地区间经济增长的空间溢出效应更大;资本和劳动力的产出弹性系数均为正,并且前者小于后者,福建经济增长主要以劳动力带动为主;高铁开通前后地区经济增长溢出效应有显著差异,开通后的溢出效应小于开通前,这有利于地区经济向均衡方向发展。


    Based on theoretical and empirical perspectives, this article demonstrates the impact of high-speed rail construction on the economy growth spillovers of Fujian County. At first, it theoretically proves that high-speed rail construction will bring the direct and indirect effects of economic growth. Then, we collect 2001-2014 microscopic panel data of 58 county-level cities in Fujian Province. Firstly, using two mechanisms of spatial panel Durbin Model, taking into account two kinds of spatial weights matrix, the space adjacent weight matrix and area reaching time -distance weight matrix, to test the high-speed railway spillover effect on regional economic growth. It shows that: First, the economic growth of Fujian County has significant positive spatial correlation between 2001 and 2014. The economic growth of a county is not spatially random distributed. There is significant spatial dependence and the combined effect of Fujian County economy. That is to say, economic growth of one area will generate positive spillover effects on that of adjacent area. Economic growth spillovers which result from shorten time accessibility between different cities because of high-speed rail than that of spatial correlation results from simple adjacent areas. Second, compared with the results of the traditional panel model, the direct impact of the high-speed rail on the regional economic growth is also very significant before and after the opening of the high-speed rail, which is resulted from the significant change in the contribution of labor and capital to economic growth. That is to say, the output elasticity of labor has become smaller, the output elasticity of capital becomes larger. It indicates that the opening of high-speed rail brings convenience to flow of the labor and the capital, and contribution of capital on economic growth will be more and more important. Third, the output elasticity of capital and labor is positive, and the former is smaller than the latter. It means that economic growth in Fujian is mainly driven by labor-based, and contribution of the capital is not yet fully realized. Forth, the spillover effect of the economic growth spillover effect based on the accessibility distance is larger than that under the simple spatial adjacency weight. Regional economic growth spillover effects are significant different before and after opening of high-speed rail, and the spillover effect after the opening of high-speed rail is smaller than that of before. This is conducive to balance the regional economic development. Finally, the article summarizes the relevant conclusions and inspiration, and puts forward policy recommendations.

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    云南省出口东盟的特征及其经济和就业贡献率分析
    唐志鹏,邹嘉龄,孙威
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 242-248.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.010
    摘要   HTML   PDF (508KB)

    利用海关信息数据、统计年鉴数据、相关贸易指标以及投入产出方法分析云南省与东盟之间的出口贸易特征,出口带来的经济和就业贡献。结果表明:云南省与东盟之间的贸易依赖关系显著增强,但是与东盟联系强度的空间分布不均匀,同时云南对东盟的出口产品出现升级特征,由矿产品、化工产品为主的出口转向了以农产品、电子制造产品为主的出口。云南省出口东盟农林牧渔产品对本省经济和就业贡献率最大,对农林牧渔产品深加工,有助于云南省的经济增长和保障就业,同时也有助于促进产业发展向技术密集型产业转型。


    Yunnan Province is located in the frontier of Southwest China, which borders on Vietnam, Myanmar and Laos. Since the agreement of Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation Between the People’s Republic of China and the Association of South East Asian Nations, the trade relationship between Yunnan Province and the ASEAN plays an important role in the development of Yunnan Province. With “the Belt and Road” moves on, the trade relationship between Yunnan Province and the ASEAN would further intimate, while its export characteristics have also undergone tremendous changes. By using data from Customs and statistical yearbook, and with the help of related trade index and input-output method, this article analyzes export characteristics between Yunnan Province and the ASEAN. The result shows: the trade dependence between Yunnan and the ASEAN has been significantly enhanced, while Yunnan’s export trade to countries of the ASEAN is geographically unbalanced. Yunnan's export trade to the ASEAN has upgraded, from minerals-, chemical products-oriented to agricultural products-, electronic manufacturing products-oriented. As Yunnan Province’s export to ASEAN, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery products had the strongest economic and employment effects, it can be argued that Yunnan’s export products upgrading can alleviate the employment problem, while promoting industrial transformation to technology-intensive industries. Under the research result, we take some advises that: firstly, ASEAN countries has a high economy growth rate, and Yunnan Province should be closer to ASEAN in the trade, especially to Vietnam etc.; Secondly, Yunnan Province should continue to promote the upgrading of export products for ASEAN steadily, especially for light industrial products to ensure the economic growth and employment growth incurred by the export; Thirdly, Yunnan Province should take “the Belt and Road” opportunities to increase its trade with ASEAN fully, and help to develop its economy. However, “the Burmese conflict” and other incidents would hinder the trade between Yunan and ASEAN, and China should offer some help for solving regional conflicts, which would help to build stronger trade relationship between Yunnan and ASEAN.

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    中国游艇俱乐部区位特征研究
    姚云浩,栾维新
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 249-257.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.011
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    通过对中国游艇俱乐部相关数据的收集与分析,探讨游艇俱乐部的区域宏观区位特征和城市微观区位特征,并揭示出区位特征的核心影响因素。主要结论为:中国的游艇俱乐部主要集中在三大经济区,其中广东、海南、山东、上海和浙江等地的游艇俱乐部综合能力较强。中心城区和近郊区是游艇俱乐部的主要聚集地,纯游艇俱乐部和地产型游艇俱乐部为主要载体,有泊位的与无泊位的俱乐部在区位上高度重合。影响游艇俱乐部区位的因素既包括区域自然资源环境、经济水平、旅游业发展、上游游艇制造业,也包括游艇产业相关政策及区域海洋文化等因素。


    As a result of economic development, yachting is gradually known and accepted by ordinary people in China. Through analyzing related data of Chinese yacht clubs, the article reveals the macro and micro location characteristics of these clubs, and explains the location factors system. The result shows that: 1) Yacht clubs mainly concentrated in 3 major coastal economic zones, including the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, the Pearl River Delta, particularly in coastal cities of Guangdong, Hainan, Shandong, Shanghai and Zhejiang provinces. 2) Downtown and suburban areas accommodate a large number of yacht clubs. Pure and tourism yacht clubs are domain, while real estate yacht clubs rank behind. Yacht clubs with berth or not on the location have a high coincidence. 3) The location factors of yacht clubs include natural and geographical environment, regional economic development, tourism development, yacht manufacturing enterprises, yacht industry policy and regional marine culture, etc. Besides, regional ultra high net wealth population would be beneficial to developing yacht clubs. 4) Different regions differ greatly of Chinese yacht clubs, and the development of yacht economics needs to adapt to the regional ecological environment and socio-economic conditions. The yacht economy of the Yangtze River Delta started earlier, which can make full use of its urban agglomeration economy, the advantages of wealthy people to create international yacht tourist destinations. The coastal regions of the Bohai Sea, like Qingdao, Dalian, Tianjin and other cities could rely on their geographical and yacht manufacturing advantages, further to improving industry characteristics, breaking the system constraints, playing the leading role of yacht tourism in northern coastal areas. Yacht clubs of the Pearl River Delta are leading the country in making innovations in systems and mechanisms, which can utilize its suitable marine climate conditions and abundant tourism resources to develop the coastal tourism resort and pull the yacht economy growth. In the future, we can study on the internal dynamic mechanism of location selection of yacht clubs, yacht industry and its agglomeration effects, consumer psychology and behavior features of participating in the activities of the yacht club, etc., so as to enrich the tourism geography theories, promote healthy development of the emerging yacht economy in China.

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    区域经济增长俱乐部趋同:假说检验及解释
    张伟丽
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 258-263.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.012
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    研究俱乐部趋同可以更加准确地观察区域经济增长的空间格局,针对性地分析不同类型区域经济增长的影响因素,这对于缩小区域经济差异具有重要意义。从俱乐部趋同假说的检验、解释及中国的相关研究等方面对现有国内外文献进行综述,并指出有待进一步拓展的研究方向,以期为国内该领域的深入研究提供借鉴。


    Since the reform and open trade policy was enacted in 1978, China’s economy has achieved sustained and rapid growth for more than 30 years, becoming the world’s second largest economy. But in recent years, China’s economic growth continued to decline from 14.2% in 2007 fell to 6.9% in 2015. Nowadays, China’s economy has entered a “new normal” period. Economic growth in developed regions is slowing down and some underdeveloped regions’ economic growth has been accelerating. There are indications that China seems to be ushering in the golden age of developing regions catching up to developed areas. Shall the developing regions overtake the developed regions? And how shall the developing regions catch up with the developed areas? Furthermore, which areas will become the dominant forces of China’s economic growth in the future? These are the real problems that need to be solved at present. And these issues are precisely classified in the main areas of club convergence research. In the real world, the phenomenon of coexistence of poor and affluent regions is very common. As a result, it has triggered to a prominent theme of club convergence in the existing literature. The related research can be more accurate when observing the spatial pattern of regional economic growth and analyzing the impact factors of different types of regional economic growth. This will undoubtedly provide important theoretical enlightenment and decision-making reference value for the promotion of the whole of economic growth. However, the current research on convergence club is still in the stage of testing whether there is the phenomenon of the club convergence, and the empirical research work is limited. This article reviews the existing literature from the aspects of testing the club convergence hypothesis, explaining the formation of convergence clubs, and relevant research about China. Then this article puts forwards some expanding directions as follows: 1) The research on the development of club convergence requires the combination of time dimension and space dimension, which can be extended to time and space coupling club convergence. 2) The study of club convergence needs to integrate into the heterogeneity of technology. 3) The test of the club convergence hypothesis needs to combine regional grouping and convergence test to improve the robustness of results. 4) The research on the formation mechanism of club convergence needs to consider the interaction of factors. 5) It is necessary to analyze the evolution mechanism of club convergence. 6) It is important to study club convergence among prefectures and counties in China.

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    国内外旅游地生命周期理论研究进展
    祁洪玲,刘继生,梅林
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 264-271.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.013
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    在系统梳理国内外旅游地生命周期相关研究文献的基础上,首先针对中外学者在旅游地生命周期理论上争议最大的两个问题进行了分析,剖析了在基本概念上存在的争议及其原因,归纳了旅游地演化的阶段组成和阶段间拐点问题上的各种意见及意义。其次,总结出旅游地生命周期理论的相关研究主要集中在两方面:一是结合具体案例,研究不同旅游地的生命周期特征,补充和丰富旅游地生命周期内容体系;二是研究推动旅游地演化的因素和机制,以及延长旅游地生命周期阶段的对策。最后根据当前旅游研究的新趋势和未来旅游发展环境的变化,提出未来旅游地生命周期领域研究主要的重点是:不同旅游地在各阶段的发展质量,旅游地的衰退机制与转型对策,旅游业发展的重新定位。


    Tourism area life cycle (TALC) is the theory to describe tourism destination evolution path, which is the most important part of tourism theory system and the most primary tool in regional tourism sustainable development planning. To further develop our existing knowledge on tourism areas evolution, some divergence and confusion on the TALC theory and its basis need to be clarified. Reviewing the domestic and international main literatures, the controversy and achievement about the basic theory are summarized elaborately. First, according to the study of the origination and development of the TALC theory of Butler and the analyzing the key concept, the article concludes that the TALC theory emphasizes the evolution of tourism region system rather than tourism product, though the theory can also be an appropriate tool for analyzing the development of tourism product. Summarizing the discussion about stages division in TALC theory, researching advantages and disadvantages of different way of stages demarcation and considering the practical value of the TALC theory, the article suggests that the evolution path of tourism region should be divided to eight stages. Which are exploration, involvement, development, consolidation, stagnation, reorientation, decline or rejuvenation, and exit stage. Beside the classical six stages in Butler TALC theory, the reorientation stage and exit stage are absolutely necessary in guiding the development of tourism area. Management decision and new investment will determine the tourism area’s evolutionary routine in reorientation stage, if the reorientation effort comes to nothing, the tourism system continues to decline, then the tourism area is doomed to enter exit stage, which means industry transformation. Experience tells us that the industry transformation is very hard for developed tourism area, very few companies want to set new branches in the decline tourism area for lacking of human resource, while a large number of people cannot find a new job after unemployed in tourism industry, there is a great possibility of big recession of whole region in exit stage. Therefore, the eight-stage TALC theory will be a more powerful tool for region development management and planning. Second, summarizing the two hot issues about TALC from 1980 to 2016, the majority literatures focus on the different characters of stages which based on specific area development data, another is the mechanism of the tourism area's evolution and four kinds of influence factors, which are macro-environment, demand, competitors and tourism area’s conditional combination. Which offers a more powerful thrust to regional tourism development planning. At last, proposing the future research prospects on TALC theory in new environment. More studies will focus on the development quality of the human-earth system in different stages instead of the shape of evolution routine of tourism area, reveal the mechanism of tourism industry decline and alternative counterplan of industry transformation in different stages, and rethink about the tourism industrial status in region economic system.

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    中国植被类型区大气增温趋势及其不对称性研究
    张慧,靳英华,神祥金,李光棣,周道玮
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 272-283.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.014
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    利用1962~2011年中国各植被类型区的452个站点的气温资料,分析了各植被类型区的年平均温度和极端温度随时间的变化趋势。结果表明:过去50 a间,中国各植被类型区年平均气温、年平均最高温、年平均最低温都显著升高,并且最低温增温速度快于最高温增温速度,呈温差减小的不对称增温趋势;同时,寒冷地区增温速度高于温暖地区的增温速度,其中寒温带森林的增温幅度超过亚热带森林的2倍。近30 a间,寒温带森林区和温带森林区增温速度减缓,其他各植被类型区增温速度加快,呈现出热带、亚热带地区增温速度高于温带、寒温带地区的空间特点;最高温增温速度在变快,最低温增加速度在变慢,多个植被类型区的最高温增温速度高于最低温增温速度,呈现出一种新的不对称增温趋势,即最高温与最低温间的温差在加大;过去50 a和近30 a间,生长季和非生长季的温度变化多样,并分别对年平均温度产生了不同的影响,而生长季和非生长季温度的不同变化分别决定于其最高温和最低温的多样变化。


    The long-term trends of annual mean temperature (Tmean), mean maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) were analyzed across 453 weather stations from 1962-2011 across 8 vegetation regions according to China vegetation regionalization. During the past 50 years, Tmean, Tmax and Tmin increased significantly in all vegetation regions. In addition, the slope of temperature increase of Tmin was greater than that of Tmax. There was significant difference in slopes between Tmax and Tmin for all vegetation regions except for cold temperate forest, subtropical and tropical forests, showing asymmetric warming in temperature over time, i.e. the difference between Tmax and Tmin was gradually reduced. Over the recent 30 years, Tmean, Tmax and Tmin increased significantly for all vegetation regions except for Tmax in temperate forest and Tmin in temperate cold forest. The rate of temperature increase gradually increased for Tmax, but decreased for Tmin over the recent 30 years. The rate of temperature increase of Tmax tended to be slower than that of Tmin on alpine steppe, cold temperate forest and subtropical forest regions, but faster on the rest of vegetation regions. However, no significant difference was detected for the rate of temperature increase between Tmax and Tmin in any other vegetation regions. The temperature in growing season and non-growing season varied greatly and had different effects on Tmean during the past 50 years and recent 30 years. The changes of temperature in growing season and non-growing season were depended on changes of Tmax and Tmin. For growing season, Tmean, Tmax and Tmin increase significantly during the last 50 years for all vegetation regions except for warm forest region. In addition, the slope of temperature increase for Tmin was greater than that of Tmax, showing asymmetric warming with reduced difference between Tmax and Tmin. There was significant difference in rate of temperature increase between Tmax and Tmin on temperate forest, temperate steppe, temperate desert and warm forest regions, but no difference on alpine steppe, cold forest, subtropical and tropical forest regions. Over the recent 30 years, Tmean, Tmax and Tmin in growing season increased significantly for all vegetation regions. In general, the rate temperature increase accelerated for Tmax but reduced for Tmin. For non-growing season, Tmean, Tmax and Tmin increase greatly during the last 50 years for all vegetation regions, showing an asymmetric warming in temperature with reduced difference between Tmax and Tmin. There was significant difference in slope of temperature increase between Tmax and Tmin for most of vegetation regions except for cold temperate forest, subtropical and tropical forest regions. However, there were not significant differences in the rates of temperature increases for Tmean, Tmax and Tmin on some regions, such as cold temperate forest, temperate forest and temperate steppe region, in non-growing season during over the recent 30 years. For the rest of vegetation regions, Tmean, Tmax and Tmin increased significantly at a faster rate for Tmax and a slower rate for Tmin.

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    东北地区生长季长度变化及其对总初级生产力的影响分析
    王苗苗,周蕾,王绍强,汪小钦
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 284-292.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.015284-292王苗苗s/img_1.jpg1961.01.0
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    基于生态过程机理模型BEPS(Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator)和卫星遥感资料模拟了2001~2010年中国东北地区陆地生态系统总初级生产力(GPP)的时空分布特征,分析了生长季长度变化及其对东北地区陆地生态系统GPP的影响。研究表明: 2001~2010年东北地区生长季开始时间、结束时间及生长季长度均没有显著的变化趋势,生长季长度的变化主要受到春季温度的影响。 东北地区陆地生态系统年均GPP总值为1 057.8±44.6 TgC,其中生长季内GPP值约占总GPP值的97.57%,即东北地区GPP主要是在生长季内固定的碳量。 东北地区GPP主要受降水量的调节,而生长季长度变化对GPP的影响并不显著。


    The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature show a warming of 0.85℃ over the period 1880 to 2012. This phenomenon is mainly due to the burning of oil, gas, coal and wood for energy since the industrial age. Climate change has already affected the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. An obviously observable effect of such ongoing changes is the timing of phenology events, such as bud-burst, flowering, leaf unfolding, and leaf coloration. Phenology studies based on ground and remote sensing observation indicate that the length of vegetation growing season has significantly increased over the past decades, principally through an earlier beginning and a later termination. So it is necessary to study the effects of changes in growing season length on gross primary productivity (GPP) of terrestrial ecosystem under the global warming in the middle and high latitude. Northeast China is located at middle latitudes in the northern Hemisphere and is an area that exhibits prominent climate changes. Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) is an ecological process based model, which originally stemmed from the FOREST Bio-Geochemical Cycles (FOREST-BGC) model. This model includes photosynthesis, energy balance, hydrological, and soil biogeochemical modules. Stratifying canopies into sunlit and shaded leaves, it incorporates a new temporal and spatial scaling scheme into Farquhar’s instantaneous leaf biochemical model to calculate daily carbon ?xation. In this article, firstly, we run BEPS model, combined with meteorological data (including maximum and minimum air temperatures, precipitation, relative humidity and solar radiation), remote sensing data and soil data to simulate the spatial and temporal distribution of GPP in Northeast China during 2001-2010. Then, we analyzed the change of growing season length and its effect on GPP in Northeast China from 2001 to 2010. The results show that: There are no significant trends in the start, end and length of growing season in 2001-2010 (R2≤0.22,P≥0.17) in Northeast China. The length of growing season is more affected by the start of growing season, and the start of growing season have a significant correlation with spring temperature (R2=0.74,P=0.001), so we can conclude that the length of growing season is mainly affected by spring temperature. The terrestrial ecosystem’s annual mean GPP is about 1 057.8±44.6 TgC in Northeast China. There is about 1 032.2±45.8 TgC GPP in growing season, accounting for 97.5% in total. It means that Northeast China’s GPP is mainly sequestered in growing season. The interannual variation of GPP is not significantly affected by the change of growing season length, it is mainly regulated by precipitation in Northeast China. And the response of the main vegetation type to phenology is consistent with that of the whole Northeast China. However, there are also some uncertainties in GPP simulation and in growing season length definition, so we should take more models to simulate GPP and use more methods to define the length of growing season in the future research.

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    基于多重分割关联子的高分辨率遥感场景分类
    徐培罡,张海青,王超,齐岗,李杰,吴静阳
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 293-299.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.016
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    高分辨率遥感影像提供了丰富的外观信息和空间结构信息,广泛应用于土地利用分类当中,源于文章领域的视觉词袋(Bag-of-Visual-Words,BoVW)模型现已成功应用于图像分类领域。传统的BoVW模型忽略了特征之间的空间布局信息和像素一致性信息,提出多重分割关联子特征,融合图像的外观信息、空间布局信息和像素一致性信息,实验表明该方法能够获取优于许多经典的遥感图像特征的性能。


    High resolution remote sensing images are increasingly applied in land use classification problems. However, it is a difficult task to recognize the semantic category for the complex background and multiple land-cover classes. The bag-of-visual-words model has been successful in scene classification, but ignores pixel homogeneity in land use remote sensing images. In this article, we present a multiple segmentation-based correlation feature to jointly integrate appearance, spatial correlation, and pixel homogeneity. We use a dense feature representation to detect spurious features resulting from clutter, which has been demonstrated that dense features work better for scene classification. These dense features are Scale-Invariant Feature Transform descriptors using a dense regular grid instead of interest points to extract features. The visual vocabulary is formed by K-means clustering of a random subset of patches from the training set. A multiple segmentation-based correlogram, which is a matrix express spatial co-occurrences of features, encoding both the local and global shape of visual words and robust with respect to basic geometric transformations and occlusions, were extracted. The corresponding correlogram elements for each pair of visual word labels in training images are collected and clustered using K-means. The set of cluster centers are multiple segmentation-based correlatons, which are a set of representative multiple segmentation-based correlogram elements. Therefore, multiple segmentation-based correlatons compress the co-occurrences information contained in a multiple segmentation-based correlogram without loss of discrimination accuracy. Finally, the concatenated histograms of images, which describe the underlying spatial correlation of visual words considering pixel homogeneity in the image region, are used as input feature vectors for the SVM classifier. The effectiveness of the multiple segmentation-based correlaton models was tested on a ground truth image dataset of 21 land use classes manually extracted from high-resolution remote-sensing images. The experimental results demonstrate that our improved correlaton model can promote classification and outperforms existing methods for the jointly integration of appearance, spatial correlation, and pixel homogeneity information.

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    衡阳盆地红土剖面的磁化率、Rb/Sr值及其古气候指示意义
    熊平生,刘沛林,王鹏
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 300-306.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.017
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    通过对衡阳市区高兴红土剖面元素含量分析、磁化率分析和ESR年代测定,探讨该剖面的低频磁化率值(χlf)、Rb/Sr值、化学蚀变指数(CIA)、退碱系数(Bc)和化学淋溶系数(BA)等的分布特征及其古气候意义。研究表明:样品Rb/Sr值与化学风化参数值有显著的相关性,磁化率值与化学风化参数值有很好的相关性,Rb/Sr比值和磁化率值一同可以作为红土沉积古环境变化的替代性指标,极好地记录了衡阳盆地更新世以来古气候的变化,大致可以划分为3个阶段:2.23~1.323 Ma B.P.期间,Rb/Sr值和磁化率值为相对高值区,气候特征为温暖湿润;1.323~0.76 Ma B.P.期间,Rb/Sr值、低频磁化率值和CIA值呈现最高值区,气候为本区最温暖湿润阶段;0.763 Ma B.P. 以来,Rb/Sr值、磁化率值和CIA值为最低值区域,气候特征为温暖干燥。 Rb/Sr值、低频磁化率值、CIA值曲线从剖面底部往上呈现出先波动递增后快速递减的变化趋势,反映了衡阳盆地早更新世以来,气候整体上是由暖湿向温干的方向发展。


    Based on the analysis of elements, magnetic susceptibility and Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) dating of samples from Gaoxing red clay profile in Hengyang City. The result indicates that: the Rb/Sr ratios and chemical weathering parameters values of Gaoxing profile showed a significant positive correlation, and the magnetic susceptibility ratios and chemical weathering parameters values showed a good positive correlation.The results revealed that Rb/Sr ratios and magnetic susceptibility values would be alternative index in red clay sedimentary environmental. recording the climate change in Hengyang Basin since the Pleistocene epoch. The paleoclimatic changes of Hengyang City can be divided into three periods: during 2.23-1.323 Ma B.P., the Rb/Sr value and magnetic susceptibility value were in relatively higher value area,the climate features were mainly warm and wet; during 1.323-0.763 Ma B. P. the Rb/Sr value, CIA value and magnetic susceptibility value reached the highest value area in profile ,the climate was the hottest and wettest phase in this region; 0.763 Ma B.P. later, the Rb/Sr value, magnetic susceptibility value and CIA value showed the lowest value in profile, illustrating that the chemical weathering is relatively weaker with mainly warm and dry climate environment. The change tendency of Rb/Sr ratios curve and magnetic susceptibility values curve in Gaoxing profile,which firstly increases fluctuantly and then decreases rapidly from the bottom to the top, generally suggesting that Hengyang Basin has witnessed climate change, from warm-wet to warm-dry since the early Pleistocene.

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    红色风化壳地球化学特征及对古气候演变的响应——以辽南石槽剖面为例
    魏东岚,沈俊杰,李永化
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 307-313.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.018
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    以辽南地区石槽剖面红色风化壳为研究对象,通过研究剖面的常量元素和地球化学指标,揭示剖面的地球化学特征,探讨剖面化学风化过程以及对古气候环境演变过程的响应。结果表明:石槽剖面红色风化壳中Ca元素重度亏损,其他常量元素均出现了相对富集;石槽剖面风化强度总体上低于南方红色风化壳,属于中等风化阶段;多个地球化学指标的垂向变化表明石槽剖面风化强度表现为风化很强-风化减弱-风化加强-风化较弱4个阶段的变化,指示辽南地区在石槽剖面发育期内古气候环境经历了湿热-暖湿-回暖-相对暖湿的演变过程。


    Based on analyzed the major elements contents and other geochemical parameters of the red weathering crust from the Shicao profile in the southern of Liaoning Province, the geochemical characteristics of the weathering process and paleoclimate evolution were discussed. The results showed that the major elements are mainly composed of SiO2, Al2O3 and Fe2O3. Compared to the bedrock, Ca has been leached out strongly, while other major elements relatively enriched in the red weathering crust of Shicao profile. In general, the intensity of chemical weathering in Shicao profile was lower than the red weathering crust from the southern China, which indicated a moderate chemical weathering intensity under warm and moist climate conditions. There are four stages of weathering process in the Shicao profile that can be assigned as intensely weathering, weakening weathering, intensifying weathering, and relatively weaker weathering. Since the chemical weathering intensity of the red crust is sensitive to climate change, the geochemical parameters can be used to reconstruct the paleoclimate environment. The paleoclimate of the southern of Liaoning Province, which in the weathering period of the Shicao profile, has undergone four stages. That is hot and humid, warm and wet, return warming, relatively warm and wet.

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    地震灾害死亡人口快速评估方法对比研究
    王曦,周洪建,张弛
    地理科学. 2018, 38 (2): 314-320.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.019
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    中国是世界上地震活动最为频繁的国家之一,属于地震多发区。在收集分析国内外关于地震灾害死亡人口评估模型的基础上,选取10种模型以2000年以来中国典型地震灾害为案例验证其适用性。结果表明: 对于5.7级(含)以下地震,10种模型的评估结果基本都在合理范围内,可采用各评估结果的区间值来支撑应急决策;5.7~6.6级(含)地震,10种评估方法得到的结果表现出不同程度的偏差,可采用多数评估结果指向的死亡人口数量级来支撑应急决策;6.6级以上地震,则只能采用有特定适用范围的基于结构易损性的评估结果来支撑应急决策,且也存在较大的不确定性。从地震灾害人员伤亡动态评估方法、地震—地质灾害死亡人口快速评估方法和快速评估软件系统方面进行了相关讨论。此研究可为地震灾害死亡人口快速评估模型的改进与发展提供借鉴。


    China is one of the countries with high frequency of seismic activity in the world, located in the earthquake prone zone. In 1978-2009, about 80 percent of mortality of natural disaster was caused by seismic activities. "Mortality" is the focus of the work of disaster information statistics, emergency relief and risk assessment. On the basis of collecting and analyzing the domestic and international evaluation model of the death toll of earthquake disaster, 10 models are selected to validate their applicability by the typical earthquake disaster cases in China since 2000. The results showed that: 1) For the seismic with magnitude of below Ms 5.7 (inclusive), the evaluation results of the 10 models are basically in a reasonable range and the range of results could support the emergency decision of earthquake disaster relief (EDR); for Ms 5.7-6.6 (inclusive) seismic activities, the results from 10 kinds of assessment methods showed varying degrees of error and the level of most results could support the emergency decision of EDR; for seismic with Ms 6.6 and above, the evaluation by structural vulnerability model can get relatively ideal results in a certain extent based on the specific scope of application. 2) Most models in this article basically belong to the "deterministic formula methodology", including: the relationship between casualties and building damage ratio, and intensity, population density, and the destruction of housing area. The limitations of certain areas or cases will inevitably lead to the large differences between evaluation results and the actual results.The main reasons of large differences include:the number of mortality often was caused by the earthquake disaster chain, not a single shake. The special housing structure and living habits in some areas also lead to great differences between the actual death population and the evaluation results. 3) Three aspects were proposed to improve the earthquake mortality rapid assessment, including the establishment of dynamic assessment method of seismic, and seismic-geologic disaster death method, the establishment of earthquake disaster death population rapid assessment software system. It can be used for reference of the improvement and development of the rapid assessment model of earthquake disaster.

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