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ISSN 1000-0690
CN 22-1124/P
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  • 地理科学
      2012年, 第32卷, 第5期 刊出日期:2012-05-20 上一期    下一期
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    中国城市人居环境质量特征与时空差异分析
    李雪铭,晋培育
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 521-529.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.521
    摘要   HTML   PDF (769KB)

    城市人居环境已成为推动城市化发展进程,衡量城市化发展水平的重要因素。以社会经济环境、居住环境、基础设施和公共服务环境、生态环境4个一级指标,28个二级指标构建了城市人居环境质量综合评价指标体系,运用熵值法对中国286个地级以上城市在2000年、2003年、2006年和2009年4个时间断面的人居环境质量特征和时空差异变化进行了分析。结果表明:中国城市人居环境质量整体在逐步提高,城市之间人居环境质量得分差值缩小,各城市排名基本保持在一定范围;城市人居环境质量级别差异明显;城市人居环境质量时空差异显著,呈现出与经济发展水平相似的从东部到中、西部依次递减的地带性空间分布特征以及南高北低的分布状况,且各地区城市级别分布不均衡;人居环境质量水平较高的城市呈“团”状分布,与国家“十二五”规划纲要中城市化战略格局基本吻合;城市人居环境质量与城市规模无对应关系。


    This article establishes an evaluation system of urban human settlement environment with four first-level indexes as standard, including socio-economic environment, living condition, infrastructure and public service environment, and natural ecological environment, and 28 second-level indexes. With the method of entropy, the urban human settlement environment quality of 286 cities at prefecture level and above in 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009 is analyzed. The results show the urban settlement environment quality of Chinese cities is gradually improving in recent 10 years. Between citie, score gap is gradually narrowing, and the city rank changes within a certain range basically, but in the most of cities, urban human settlement environment construction is at a low development level. The spatial difference of urban human settlement environment quality is significant, and the distribution of cities at all city levels in each region is unbalance. With the urban human settlement environment quality decreasing from the eastern coastal regions to central and western regions, and from the south to the north. It shows that the eastern region has the advantages both in the number of cities belonged to the first three levels and in the proportion in different regions. Cities with the level of three, four and five dominate the central region, and those with the level of five and six dominate the western region. The economy is not deciding factor, but is the main factor resluting in the differences of urban human settlement environment, and is the prerequisite of improving urban human settlement environment. Therefore, to promote the economic development and to improve the urban economic strength is still the main development direction for cities. The cities with higher urban human settlement environment quality are distributed in the form of agglomeration, which fits well the urbanization strategy in China. There is correlation between urbanization level and urban human settlement environment quality: the level of urbanization is higher, the urban human settlement environment quality is higher. There is no correlation between urban human settlement environment quality and city size, sometimes, the quality of many small cities is higher than that of big cities. This means that city development should be coordinated with local conditions, and the process should be human-oriented, serve for human production and life, and not pursue the external scale. The process of urbanization is unbalanced, and many aspects need to be improved. Cities with higher grades have not been developing comprehensively, and ecological environment, infrastructure, public service, urban and rural gap do not develop sufficiently. This means many aspects of the process have not got enough attention, needing the elimination of the short boards to achieve the comprehensive improvement of urban human settlement environment quality.

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    基于局部空间统计的产业集群空间分析——以北京市制造业集群为例
    刘霄泉,孙铁山,李国平
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 530-535.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.530
    摘要   HTML   PDF (487KB)

    将集群识别与空间分析相结合,通过全国集群模板识别产业集群,进而利用局部空间统计方法,探测产业集群的空间布局特征。利用2008年北京市和全国经济普查数据,从产业联系的角度识别了北京市制造业集群,在此基础上进一步测度了北京市制造业集群的空间分布现状与布局特征。研究发现,北京市制造业集群主要分布在近郊区并向远郊区延伸,资源条件、政策环境、交通区位、历史因素等多种区位因子均对集群的区位选择产生影响。从总体分布来看,北京市制造业集群的空间布局存在分布比较分散、功能重叠或与区县功能定位不符等问题。未来在政策制定时,应进一步强化北京市制造业集群的空间集聚,发挥区域产业政策的引导作用,并不断依托产业园区优化集群发展环境,引导符合区县功能定位的制造业集群发展。


    Incorporating local spatial autocorrelation analysis into the identification of regional industry clusters, this article presents a useful method for regional industry cluster analysis, which can clearly identify the spatial distribution patterns of regional industry clusters. We use the national benchmark industrial clusters as the template, and apply local spatial autocorrelation analysis based on the local Getis and Ord G statistic to analyze the spatial distributions of manufacturing clusters in Beijing. Our data are drawn from the Beijing Economic Census and the National Economic Census in 2008. We find out that the manufacturing clusters of Beijing are mainly located in the suburban areas, and new investment and development areas are the main locations attracting the manufacturing industries to concentrate and form industry clusters. Through analyzing the spatial patterns of Beijing’s manufacturing clusters, we find out that 1) historical path-dependency, natural resources conditions, transportation accessibility, regional policies and so on are the factors driving the formation of manufacturing clusters in Beijing’s suburbs; 2) manufacturing clusters related with industrial linkages are often located near to each other; 3) manufacturing clusters are scattered throughout the suburbs in Beijing, and different clusters have various location patterns; and 4) the functional divisions of industry sectors within the cluster over space are not distinct, and many clusters are duplicated in industry components at different locations, which leads to the overlap of functional divisions of areas. Therefore we suggest to further improve the agglomeration of manufacturing clusters in Beijing, to clearly indentify the regional functions and to guide manufacturing clusters through proper regional policies, so as to enhance the regional divisions and specializations of manufacturing clusters based on the regional functions and specialty.

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    基于空间联系的城市腹地范围划分——以江苏省为例
    钟业喜,陆玉麒
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 536-543.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.536
    摘要   HTML   PDF (653KB)

    以ArcGIS为平台,在1:25万基础地理数据、江苏省交通路网数据、江苏省各县(市)统计数据的支持下,应用“自下而上”的划分方法对江苏省1990年、1996年、2002年和2008年不同等级的城市及其腹地的吸引范围进行了划分。划分过程包括:运用因子分析得到65个城市的综合实力,利用可达性分析技术得到城市间两两时间距离,运用最大联系强度以及逐级归并方法确定不同等级城市及其腹地范围。结果表明:采用城市间两两可达性来代替直线距离,对划分结果的准确性有所提升;划分方法充分考虑了城市间的隶属关系,划分过程中充分体现了城市质量与城市间的时间距离,划分结果较好地体现了区域均衡。“自下而上”划分方法体现了与传统的“自上而下”划分方法完全不同的研究路径,作为城市腹地划分方法的一种补充,可供研究人员进一步理论和实证探讨。


    With the development of computer technology and geographic information system (GIS), three significant transformation appears in measuring method of urban hinterland. Firstly, the method develops from the qualitative to the quantitative. Secondly, GIS is increasingly integrated with traditional methods. Thirdly, time-distance gradually replaces physical distance, while they have the commom thinking to classify the cities by their qualities. The urban hinterlands can be deviede to different categories, which is called "top-down" method in this article. Since the method focuses on the quality without considering distance as a factor, the results are not good enough in the area where the internal differentiation is significant. Therefore, the method named "bottom-up" is put forward here. And selecting Jiangsu Province as a case, the cities in it are divided to different levels and their hinterlands are measured in the years of 1990, 1996, 2002 and 2008 based on the 1:250 000 basic geographic data, the transportation network data and the statistic data of counties (cities). The division process involves: to obtain the scales of 65 cities by factor analysis, to get the time-distance between cities by the accessibility analysis, and to determine the levels of the urban and their hinterlands after merging them by grade through maximum spatial linkage. The result shows that: it is more accurate to use accessibility capacity than using the straight-line distance, since not only the comprehensive strength but also the location are taken into consideration in the former; the dividing result may fully reflect the regional balance since fully considering the relationship of subordination among those cities. On one hand, "bottom-up "method could reflect the regional balance well while "top-down" method would neglect it instead; on another hand, "bottom-up" method could not ensure central cities with high comprehensively capable are all divided as high level ones in the case that those central cities are of about the same strength and being close while "top-down" method can make it. But as a completely different method from traditional ones, "bottom-up" method reflects a new study thinking which deserves researchers to make theoretical and empirical exploration further.

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    长株潭城市群核心区城镇景观空间扩张过程定量分析
    曾永年,何丽丽,靳文凭,吴孔江,徐艳艳,于菲菲
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 544-549.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.544
    摘要   HTML   PDF (758KB)

    城镇扩张是城镇化过程最直接的表现,定量研究与揭示城镇空间扩张模式,对理解区域城镇化过程及城镇空间规划具有重要的意义。利用景观扩张指数定量研究了长株潭城市群核心区1993~2006年城镇景观空间演化过程,揭示其城镇景观空间扩张规律。结果表明:① 研究时段内,城镇用地发展经过了凌乱分散的初级发展阶段后正趋向局部紧凑和区域布局合理;② 1993~2006年间,长株潭城市群核心区城镇景观扩张主要是以边缘式增长为主,但是不同的时期,景观扩张表现出相异的空间扩张模式:1993~1996年间,景观扩张方式主要是以边缘式和飞地式为主,这一阶段长株潭城市群核心区处于快速城镇化过程的初级阶段;1996~1998年城镇化过程加快,这一阶段的城镇发展显得凌乱而分散,飞地式扩张明显;1998~2001年处于快速城镇化发展的扩散阶段,以边缘式扩张为主;2001~2006年间,处于快速城镇化的聚合阶段,城镇发展主要以边缘式和填充式为主;③ 长株潭城市群核心区在1993~2006年间,其平均斑块扩张指数和面积加权平均斑块扩张指数都呈上升趋势,表明城镇景观扩张更趋于紧凑。


    The urban expansion pattern is important to understand the urbanization processes. It is important to reveal and study quantitativly on urban spatial expansion models for understanding the regional urbanization process and the urban spatial planning. In this article, the changes of urban landscape from 1993 to 2006 in the core area of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan metroplan areas are quantified using landscape expasion index (LEI). The results indicate: 1) the proportions of urban expansion area in outlying model is 22.38%, 30.26%, 13.74%, 18.68% respectively, those of in edge-expansion model are 60.60%, 52.42%, 66.83%, 63.69% and in infilling model are 17.02%, 17.32%, 19.43%, 17.63% respectively from 1993 to 2006. This shows that after a messy dispersed primary development phase, urban development is more compact and reasonable layout. 2) the urban expasion appears mainly edge-expansion model from 1993 to 2006 in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan metroplan areas. However, there are different unban expansion models in four different periods: ① the urban expasion appears edge-expansion and outlying model from 1993 to 1996, which indcates that urbanization is in the early stage of rapid urbanization; ② the urban expasion appears mainly outlying model from 1996 to 1998, which indcates that urban development is messy and dispersion; ③ the urban expasion appears mainly edge-expansion model from 1998 to 2001. This period is the proliferation phase in the rapid development of urbanization; ④ the urban expasion appears edge-expansion and infilling model from 2001 to 2006. This period is the polymeric phase in rapid urbanization. 3) The MEI and AWMEI of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan metroplan areas show an ascendant trend, which rises to 34.72 and 30.59 respectively. This means that urban landscape expansion tends to be more compac. 4) The urbanization level of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan metroplan areas was 49.69% in 2006. The annual growth rate is 2.57%. A rapid development of urbanization leads to land used for construction increasing and the investment of urban construction expanding ceaselessly. Rapid development of urbanization is an important reason for urban landscape expansion. Another important reason is industrialization development,especially a quick development when Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan metroplan areas go into “Two Type” society. The proportion of secondary industry is 47%, which is 3.5% higher than the provincial average.

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    京津冀都市区经济分布演化及作用机制模拟研究
    郭腾云,董冠鹏
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 550-556.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.550
    摘要   HTML   PDF (534KB)

    利用kernel密度估计方法考察了京津冀都市区1995~2007年经济分布演化过程,在此基础上,引入经济增长分布模拟模型进一步模拟研究了其经济增长驱动力的作用效应。研究发现:① 京津冀都市区经济增长分布形态经历了“双峰状”→“单峰状”→“双峰状”的演化过程。② 资本深化、技术效率、技术进步和空间依赖效应对京津冀都市区经济增长起显著作用。③ 资本深化和技术效率对京津冀都市区经济增长分布演化起重要作用,而技术进步、空间外溢效应和误差分布效应则没有显著的作用。④ 资本深化分布的变化和技术效率综合作用效应的变化是影响京津冀都市区经济分布演化的驱动力,并通过资本深化的分布效应和技术效率的综合作用效应这两个渠道对其经济分布演化产生影响。⑤ 对京津冀都市区经济增长起作用的因素不一定能够影响到其经济分布的演化,基于分解技术的经济增长分布模拟模型,并利用理论分布和实际分布差异性的统计检验可以识别真正影响其经济分布演化的因素及其作用渠道。


    The evolution of economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region (short for BTHMR) are simulated using Kernel density estimation based on the data of the population, capital investment, and GDP of 140 county-level sub-regions of BTHMR in 1995-2007. And further its driving forces are simulated using spatial lag models based on the variables, such as capital deepening, technological efficiency and technological progress, which derived from the DEA and Malmquist index models, in different periods. Several conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) The shape of economic spatial distribution have changed significantly, from two peaks in 1995 to one peak in 2001, then, two peaks again, with a bigger and bigger gap between poor sub-region groups and rich ones, which indicates that the BTHMR had undergone a change from convergence to club convergence. 2) Capital deepening, technological efficiency, technological progress and spatial dependence play important roles in the economic growth of BTHMR. 3) Capital deepening and technological efficiency have statistically significant impacts on the economic spatial distribution evolution while the spatial dependence and technological progress have not although they both were important driving forces in economic growth. The distribution change of capital deepening and the increasing importance of technological efficiency have contributed to the economic distribution evolution rather than the increasing importance of capital deepening and the distribution change of technological efficiency. The results indicate that the distribution effects of capital deepening and coefficient effects of technological efficiency had become the channel, through which capital deepening and technological efficiency changed the economic distribution evolution.

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    江苏省能源与经济系统协调发展评价
    赵媛,沈璐
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 557-561.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.557
    摘要   HTML   PDF (390KB)

    建立能源系统、经济系统发展评价指标体系,构建能源与经济系统协调度模型,利用1995~2009年江苏省能源与经济相关统计数据,定量分析江苏省能源系统与经济系统协调发展水平。研究结果表明两者的协调发展大体经历了如下变化:1995~1997年协调度虽呈现缓慢上升趋势,但两系统各自的发展均处在较低水平;1998年江苏经济系统发展快于能源系统,出现短暂地协调度下降现象;1999~2004年两系统发展速度同步加快,呈现出短暂的“和谐”状态;2005年协调度略微回落,能源资源过度消耗等问题日益突出;为此,政府采取转变经济发展方式、调整产业结构等积极措施,2006~2009年两系统协调度出现回升态势。 “十二五”期间,江苏应进一步从产业结构、能源结构、能源利用效率、全民节能降耗意识等四方面实现优化升级,并将解决环境问题放在更为突出的位置,努力把江苏建设成为经济健康型、资源节约型、环境友好型社会。


    Demand for energy is growing with each passing day by the rapid development of economy in Jiangsu Province. Energy shortage is one of the restricting factors on the further development of economy. Meanwhile, environment pressure with energy consumption is increasing day by day. So, how to realize the coordinative development among energy and economy has been an important problem which should be solved as soon as possible. Based on the energy and economy data from 1995 to 2009, this article is to set up the development evaluation index system and the energy-economy coordinative degree model, which aims to analyze the coordinative development level quantitatively among energy and economy. The results show that the coordinative development level among energy and economy has experienced the following changes: 1) from 1995 to 1997, the coordinative degree presented slow rising trend as a result of the low development level both in energy and economy; 2) the development speed of economy was faster than that of energy, which caused the coordinative degree declining briefly in 1998; 3) the development level from 1999 to 2004 improved at the same speed. Due to most high-energy-consumption enterprises being closed successively and new technology and new equipments being adopted, energy utilization efficiency increased greatly which presented short "harmonious" state between energy and economy; and 4) the coordinative degree was declining slightly for the excessive consumption of energy resources in 2005. The government intensified efforts to transform the mode of economic development and to adjust the industrial structure. In this case, the coordinative degree rised again from 2006 to 2009, which meant the optimization period had been coming. However, problems such as energy consumption per unit of GDP being on the high side still exist. The contradiction between energy and economy is still outstanding. During the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, Jiangsu will keep the coordinative development level in primary state and achieve the sustainable development among energy and economy by adjusting industrial structure, optimizing energy structure, improving energy utilization efficiency and strengthening national energy saving consciousness further. At the same time, Jiangsu will put solving the environmental problem on the more prominent place. By the joint efforts, Jiangsu will become an economy-healthy, resources-saving, and environment-friendly society.

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    重大事件网络演绎中浏览者感知态度、评价及其影响——以上海网络世博会为例
    王朝辉,陆林,夏巧云,刘玲玉
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 562-569.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.562
    摘要   HTML   PDF (442KB)

    以2010上海网络世博会为例,采用SPSS18.0和AMOS17.0数据分析软件,通过对网络浏览者调研数据的分析与处理,建立重大事件网络虚拟旅游消费者感知态度的测量模型,并进行测度研究,通过建构SEM模型探索网络虚拟游客消费感知态度及评价对行为意图的影响关系。研究结果表明:① 上海网络世博会虚拟旅游消费感知态度包括实用维度和享乐维度2个测量维度。②上海网络世博会游客旅游消费感知态度总体均值较高,10个测量指标均值均达到满意水平,网络游客对于实用维度的感知均值高于享乐维度;女性群体感知态度的均值在两个维度上均高于男性;未婚群体在实用维度上感知均值高于已婚群体;参观过世博会的旅游者的享乐维度感知均值高于未参观过世博会的群体。③ 感知评价满意度是网络游客感知态度影响行为意图的中介变量,网络游客感知态度通过对感知满意评价的显著影响而影响网络虚拟旅游者的网络行为和其世博旅游行为意图。④ 网络游客消费感知态度中的享乐维度对网络游客世博游览行为意向产生直接而显著影响,而实用维度的影响不显著。该研究有益拓展了游客消费行为理论和方法的研究领域与实证应用,对世博会等类同国际性重大事件的营销推广与可持续发展具有一定的理论和现实意义。


    The study on mega-event and its impact are the focuses of geography of tourism and tourism science while the study on consumer behavior is the important aspect of behavioral geography. As a new deduction form, Shanghai Network World Expo offers a new research object and field for the academic study on mega-event impact. Based on the SPSS18. 0 and AMOS17.0, the article makes an analysis on browsers’ survey data in 2010 Shanghai Network World Expo and constructs the measurement model of mega-event network tourists’ perceived attitude. The SEM is constructed to explore the relationship between network browsers’ perceived attitude and evaluate the impact on their behaviors. The result shows that: 1) The utilitarian and hedonic dimensions are the two measurement dimensions to construct the network tourists’ perceived attitude. 2) In general, network tourists’ consuming perceived attitude is strong, with the ten measurement indicators reaching the satisfying level; network tourists’ perception of utilitarian dimension is stronger than that of hedonic dimension; the perceived attitude of the female is higher than that of male in both dimensions; the perception of utilitarian dimension of the unmarried group is higher than that of married group; tourists who have visited the expo have much higher perception of utilitarian dimension than those who have not yet. 3) The perceived evaluation is the intermediate variable between the network tourists’ perceived attitude and their behaviors. The network tourists’ perceived attitude indirectly influences the tourists’ network behaviors and behavioral intentions to the Expo through their perceived evaluation. 4) The hedonic dimension in the network tourists’ consuming perception attitude has a direct and significant impact on their behaviors and intentions to the Expo while the impact of utilitarian dimension is not obvious. The study greatly expands the research filed and empirical applications in tourists’ consumption behavior theory and method, and will have a certain theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development and marketing of international mega-event tourism in China.

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    都市圈旅游空间结构演变研究——以长三角都市圈为例
    朱付彪,陆林,於冉,鲍捷
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 570-576.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.570
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    旅游空间结构演变研究,对优化都市圈旅游空间结构、促进都市圈整体旅游地形成和发挥都市圈旅游空间效应与功能有重要意义。以旅游人数和旅游收入为指标,利用赫芬达尔指数和位序—规模模型进行分析,并结合长三角都市圈旅游发展实际考察其旅游空间结构演变态势。结果表明,长三角都市圈旅游者和旅游收入空间分布趋向分散,各城市旅游发展相对差异不断缩小,其旅游发展趋向均衡化。长三角都市圈旅游发展实际也显示,其旅游空间结构呈现多中心、网络化和一体化特点。从长期来看,长三角都市圈旅游空间结构演变趋向高水平均衡。借鉴空间相互作用理论,认为以可达性、互补性和替代性为必要条件,以集聚和扩散作用为主要形式,以资金、技术、人员、信息和经验等的流动为主要内容,各城市旅游空间相互作用推动了都市圈旅游空间结构不断由低水平均衡向高水平均衡演变。旅游企业扩张和旅游客流流动带动了旅游资金、技术、人员、信息和经验等的集聚和扩散,推动了都市圈旅游空间结构演变。


    It is significant to optimize spatial structure and promote tourism destination building of metropolitan tourism by studying tourism spatial structure evolution of metropolitan area, which have an important meaning in playing the function and spatial effects of metropolis tourism. The article, based on the data of tourist number and tourism revenue, using Herfindal index and model of regression analysis of rank-size, studys the evolution of tourism spatial structure evolution of Changjiang River delta metropolitan area. The result demonstrates that the q value of Changjiang River delta metropolitan area decreases from 1999 to 2008. The q value of inbound tourism decreases from 1.861 to 1.438 in 1999-2008. The q value of domestic tourism decreases from 1.155 to 0.779, smaller than 1 after 2003. Also its Herfindal index value of inbound tourism decreases from 0.371 to 0.237 and domestic tourism decreases from 0.219 to 0.105. Only the value of domestic tourism Herfindal index in 2000 is greater than year of 1999. It shows that the density of tourist number and tourism income of domestic tourism is smaller than inbound tourism. So the relative disparity of tourism development among cities is shrinking and tourism development tends to equilibrium in Changjiang River delta metropolitan area. In fact, the tourism development is multi-centered, networked, integrated and balanced, and tends to high-level equalization in the Changjiang River delta metropolitan area. Then we discuss its evolution mechanism of tourism spatial structure using the theory of tourism space interaction. It considers that the evolution of tourism spatial structure of metropolitan area may experience such processes as low-level equalization, concentration, diffusion and high-level equalization from the earlier to late period. In this periods, the tourism space interaction play an important role, and the accessibility, complementary and alternative provide necessary conditions for the tourism space interaction among cities of metropolitan area. As main forms of the tourism space interaction, the accumulation and diffusion of tourism finance, technology, personnel, information and experience and other factors promote the evolution tourism spatial structure of metropolitan area from low-level equalization to the high-level equalization. Finally, this article explores the mechanism of tourism spatial structure evolution of metropolitan area from the view of the expansion of tourism enterprises and spatial behavior of tourists which play an important role in evolution of tourism spatial structure of metropolitan area wholly.

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    基于系统动力学的资源枯竭型矿业城市产业转型仿真分析——以吉林省辽源市为例
    卢万合,刘继生,那伟
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 577-583.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.577
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    伴随着矿产资源的逐步枯竭,资源枯竭型矿业城市的经济发展面临着诸多困境,产业转型已经迫在眉睫。吉林省辽源市的产业转型取得了良好的效果,被誉为“辽源样本”。基于系统动力学研究方法,通过对系统结构的深入分析,构建辽源市经济系统的SD模型,将CD生产函数嵌入到模型当中,根据辽源市2005~2010年数据进行趋势外推仿真,得到2005~2030年经济系统的若干仿真曲线。结果表明:在2027年辽源市煤炭资源完全枯竭,煤炭产业产值降低为0,但这对其整体经济的扰动很小,辽源市GDP、第二产业产值、接续产业产值、第一产业产值、第三产业产值、其它工业产业产值均呈现快速上升的态势,并且包括人均GDP在内的人均指标亦都将呈现上升的趋势,辽源经济将呈现整体繁荣的局面。


    With the gradual depletion of mineral resources, the economy of resources-exhausted mining city is facing many difficulties, and industrial transformation has been imminent. The industrial transformation of Liaoyuan City has achieved remarkable progress, known as the “Liaoyuan sample”. This article establishes the SD model of economic system of Liaoyuan City through analyzing the system structure of the in-depth analysis based on the system dynamics method, and the CD production function is embedded into the model. We conductes the model based on the data of Liaoyuan from 2005 to 2010, a plurality of simulation curves of economic system of Liaoyuan City in 2005-2030 are derived, and the results show that: coal industry production value of Liaoyuan City is reduced to 0 because coal resource would completely dry up in 2027, which however exerts limited perturbation over the economy. Many economic indicators are showing rapid upward trend, including GDP, the output value of the second industry, the output value of the third industry, the output value of continuous industry, the output value of other’s industry. Further, other’s indexes such as the per capita GDP will also show an increasing tendency, the economy of Liaoyuan will present an overall prosperity.

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    “基因图谱”视角下闽台石器时代文化空间结构分析
    王彬,刘莎
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 584-590.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.584
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    聚落是识别区域文化景观同一性的重要指标。中国闽台石器时代文化因受区域环境的影响,呈现出与全国其他地区不同的文化特征。借用“文化基因”的概念,运用GIS技术对闽台石器时代文化遗址空间特征、文化特质和历史渊源进行分析。研究结果表明:闽台石器时代文化遗址在产生时间上具有继承性;在空间扩散、迁移及居住地空间选择上,闽台石器文化遗址都呈现了山岗、沿河流阶地和滨海分布模式,并经历了由点经线到面的扩散和迁移过程;在器具、技术工艺和作物类型等方面亦存在着广泛的相似性和共同性。石器遗址文化表明闽台具有相同的文化根基。


    The settlement is an important indicator to distinguish the identity of regional cultural landscape. There are wide range of similarities on physical geography between Taiwan and Fujian provinces, such as landform, climate, vegetation, etc. In addition, the Chinese government strengthened the rule of Taiwan areas gradually since the Song Dynasty. At the same time, the Chinese from the Guangdong and Fujian provinces began settling in Taiwan since the 7th century, and they started to develop rapidly in Taiwan on a larger scale, so there are also wide consistencies in land uses, economic activities, culture, etc. between Taiwan and Fujian provinces. Finally, the cultural region between Taiwan and Fujian was formed. However, the cultural characteristics of the ancient cultural sites in Taiwan and Fujian provinces show the differences from the rest of other regions in China because of the most ancient settlements and impacts of the regional environment among Taiwan and Fujian provinces. This article analyzes the characteristics of spatial distribution and cultural and historical origins of ancient sites among Taiwan and Fujian provinces based on the cultural gene by GIS. The results suggest that the ancient cultural sites between Taiwan and Fujian provinces owned the inherited characteristics in the production time and the same ways in spatial diffusion, migration and choice of living space. To be specific, the ancient cultural sites between Taiwan and Fujian provinces were mainly located in hills, along the river terraces or near the coast. What′s more, they both changed from point to line and to surface in the end, from the view of the patterns of diffusion and migration. So it is not difficult to find that there were also wide range of similarities and commonalities in tools, technologies to make tools and in crop types they planted, through drawing gene atlas and comparing by cultural characteristics of those ancient cultural sites between Taiwan and Fujian provinces. Finally, it is also clear that there is the same cultural basis of ancient cultural sites between Taiwan and Fujian provinces.

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    吉林省工业化、城镇化与农业现代化关系实证分析
    姜会明,王振华
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 591-595.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.591
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    工业化、城镇化和农业现代化相互影响,三者相互促进、相辅相成,有着内在的逻辑关系。通过建立吉林省工业化、城镇化和农业现代化评价指标体系,基于1991~2009年时间序列数据利用因子分析法计算了吉林省工业化、城镇化和农业现代化的发展指数,三条发展指数曲线相互交错,趋势基本相同,尤其是工业化和城镇化水平都在不断进步。但从三者对比来看,三化之间不同步现象明显,出现脱节现象。进而对其进行多变量协整检验,结果表明:“三化” 在时间上并非同步而生,工业化的进步会滞后一期引起城镇化水平和农业现代化水平提高,工业化对“三化”的拉动作用在短期内立即体现,长期内需要工业化水平的不断提高才能为“三化”的进步提供源源不断的动力。农业现代化水平的提高也会促进城镇化水平提高,但是需要滞后三期才会体现。据此提出“三化”统筹的基本思路是“用农业化范式发展工业化”,“用工业化范式发展农业现代化”,“用工农业融合集聚发展城镇化”。


    Industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization have the inner logical relationship and influence each other. The orchestrating of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization is not only the regional coordination of urban and rural areas, but also the industrial coordination of agriculture and industry. This article sets up the index system to evaluate the industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Jilin Province. Based on the time series data of Jilin Province in 1991-2009, the factor analysis method is empoyed to calculate the evaluation indexes. The result shows that the three lines of evaluation indexes interlace with each other but the trends are nearly the same, and especially the unceasing progress trends of industrialization and urbanization are obvious. From the point of view of contrast, the phenomenon of asynchrony is obvious. This article further makes the multivariate cointegration test for the evaluation indexes. The results examine that the industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization do not start synchronously, and industrialization could promote urbanization and agricultural modernization with one year lagged. It means that the industrialization could pull the urbanization and agricultural modernization in the short term. In another word, it is necessary to get the steady promotion of industrialization in the long term, and only the continuous improvement can provide an uninterrupted power to pull the urbanization and agricultural modernization. The improvement of agricultural modernization could also pull the urbanization, but the influence would be revealed three years later, which means that the agricultural modernization could pull the urbanization in the long term and it is different to the cycle of action of industrialization to urbanization. This article gives the explanation that the promotion of industrialization level could drive the development of industrial zone immediately and then cause the gathering of human capital, capital and material resources, and promote the level of urbanization. The promotion of agricultural modernization level could drive the transfer of surplus labor, and gradually expand the demand scale of agricultural production materials, promot the level of urbanization in the long term. Finally, this article puts forward the development thought of orchestrating of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Jilin Province. We should use the agricultural paradigm to improve the level of industrialization, use the integration industrial paradigm to improve the level of agricultural modernization, and use the paradigm of agglomeration and integration between industry and agriculture to improve the level of urbanization.

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    萨拉乌苏河流域MGS2层段粒度与CaCO3记录的千年尺度气候变化
    王丰年,李保生,王江龙,牛东风,温小浩,李志文,司月君,杜恕环
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 596-602.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.596
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    测定、分析毛乌素沙漠东南缘萨拉乌苏河流域米浪沟湾剖面MGS2层段的粒度与CaCO3,发现该层段不同沉积相粒度Mzσ呈现峰谷变化,CaCO3含量在沙丘砂及其上覆的河流相和湖沼相中依次变化于0~2.94%(平均值0.39%)、0.14%~2.68%(1.43%)和0.39%~15.57%(8.82%),并与Mz呈显著相关,构成与沉积旋回波动韵律相同的5.5个峰谷交替的粒度与CaCO3旋回。研究表明,毛乌素沙漠冬季风盛行时期沙丘砂强烈堆积,CaCO3发生迁移;夏季风盛行时期河流相和湖沼相发育,粉砂和粘土含量增加,CaCO3相对聚集。这些旋回代表东亚冬夏季风千年尺度交替变化的气候旋回。


    The MGS2 segment of the Milangguowan stratigraphical section in the Salawusu River Valley, southeast of China’s Mu Us Desert, records 5.5 sedimentary cycles consisting of dune sands alternating with fluvial or lacustrine facieses. Based on the grain-size and CaCO3 analysis, it was found that Mz and σ appear peaks and valleys in different sedimentary facieses. CaCO3 contents range from 0 to 2.94% (average 0.39%) in the dune sands, 0.14% to 2.68% (average 1.43%) in the fluvial facieses and 0.39% to 15.57% (average 8.82%) in the lacustrine, and appear 5.5 grain-size and CaCO3 cycles similar to the sedimentary facieses changes. And the CaCO3 contents have a significant correlation with Mz. The result show that the dune sands accumulate and CaCO3 moved greatly during the periods with a strong cold-dry winter monsoon. Whereas, the fluvial or lacustrine facieses developed, silt and clay increased and CaCO3 gathered largely when the warm-humid summer monsoon strengthened. The observed climate fluctuations on millennium-scale during the Pleniglacial to the alternations attributed the strength of the East Asian winter and summer monsoons.

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    伊犁山地不同海拔土壤有机碳的分布
    孙慧兰,李卫红,杨余辉,杨玉海
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 603-608.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.603
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    以乌孙山北坡、科古琴山南坡为例,分析伊犁山地南北坡土壤有机碳的分布特征和影响因素。结果表明:① 0~50 cm范围内,高寒草甸、草甸草原土壤有机碳含量较高,荒漠草原土壤有机碳含量最低。土壤有机碳含量均随土壤深度的增加而降低,高寒草甸随土壤深度的增加土壤有机碳下降幅度最大;② 伊犁山地土壤腐殖化程度高,氮矿化能力强。大部分海拔的土壤碳氮比随土壤深度的增加而减少。河谷南坡碳氮比降低速率要大于河谷北坡。③ 土壤有机碳与全氮、全磷以及土壤含水率表现出良好的正相关性;与pH值表现出较好的负相关性,特别是20~50 cm处。植被类型分布和人类活动影响对土壤有机碳垂直变化影响显著。


    Based on data from field investigations and laboratory analysis in 2008 and 2009, soil organic carbon distribution and its influencing factors were studied, taking the northern slope of Wusun Mountain and the southern slope of Keguqin Mountain on the Ili mountainous region, Xinjiang as the study area. The results showed that: 1) Soil organic carbon content in 0-50cm soil layer of alpine meadow and meadow steppe was higher and that was lower in desert steppe. Soil organic carbon content decreased with the increasing of soil depth, both changing range and rate of soil organic carbon content was constant in 0-10cm and 10-20cm soil layer of the Ili mountainous region, however the soil organic carbon content was showed decreasing trend with high changing range in alpine meadow which is on over 2700m above the sea level, and that was slower in Temperate meadow steppe. The desert steppe had the slowest changing range. The difference in decreasing range of soil organic carbon has proved that its vertical distribution pattern was also different; 2) the soil carbon/nitrogen ratio of southern and northern slope of Ili mountainous region was between7-15 and the soil had higher humification degree and nitrogen mineralization potential. Soil carbon/nitrogen ratio in most sites in different elevation decreased with the increasing of soil depth, and the southern slope of Ili mountainous region had the higher soil carbon/nitrogen decreasing ratio than that of the northern slope; 3) soil organic carbon had a positive significant correlation with soil total nitrogen, total phosphorus and soil moisture (P<0.01), and had a negative significant correlation with pH value, especially in 20-50cm soil layer. The distribution of vegetation types and human activities significantly affected the vertical distribution of soil organic carbon. Although the intensively grazing of alpine meadow had caused serious lost of soil organic carbon in this area, but due to the rich organic carbon content in 0-10cm soil layer, its vertical distribution pattern was still obvious. Therefore, the protection of the surface soil layer would play a significant role in maintaining the stability of soil carbon sink in this area.

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    湖南四水入洞庭湖水沙演变及成因分析
    覃红燕,谢永宏,邹冬生
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 609-615.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.609
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    以湖南四水入洞庭湖的代表性控制站1951~2009年长系列水文数据为基础,运用Mann- Kendall趋势突变检验等方法探讨水沙演变过程并分析了其成因。结果表明:四水年径流量变化比较复杂,存在多个上升-下降过程,但总体上无明显上升或下降趋势;年输沙量总体上呈明显下降趋势,且突变时间存在差异,湘水是1996年,资水是1973~1974年,沅水是1997~1998年,澧水是1998年。年径流量的减少、植被覆盖增加以及大中型水库的建设等综合作用是2001年后年输沙量较大幅度减少的主要原因。


    On the basis of hydrological data from 1951 to 2009 of four representative gauging stations (Xiangtan, Taojiang, Taoyuan, Shimen), the changes of runoff and sediment discharge into Dongting Lake from the Four Rivers (Xiang River, Zi River, Yuan River and Li River) in Hunan Province were investigated using Mann-Kendall trend test, moving average value and double mass analysis. The results showed that annual runoff was highest in Xiang River (657×108m3), intermediate in Yuan River (640×108m3) and Zi River (229×108m3), and lowest in Li River (147×108m3). However, the changes of annual runoff of the Four Rivers were insignificant (P > 0.05), with several up-down processes. Annual sediment discharge was highest in Yuan River (1 051×104t), intermediate in Xiang River (959×104t) and Li River (382×104t), and lowest in Zi River (199×104 t).The annual sediment discharge from the Four Rivers showed a significantly decreasing trend generally (P < 0.001). Changes of annual runoff and annual sediment discharge were consistent in Xiang River before 1980s, in Zi River after 1960s, in Yuan River before 1980s and in Li River before 1990s. Moreover, the time of abrupt change in annual sediment discharge was different among the Four Rivers, with Xiang River in 1996, Zi River in 1973-1974, Yuan River in 1997-1998 and Li River in 1998, and the time of abrupt beyond 95% confidence interval was 1999, 1963, 1988, 2001 in Xiang River, Zi River, Yuan River and Li River, respectively. Double mass analysis between annual runoff and annual sediment discharge showed that Xiang River had one turning point in 1991, Zi River three points in 1961, 1981 and 1997, Yuan River two points in 1979 and 1997, Li River one point in 1996. Turning points of annual sediment discharge in Four Rivers were closely related to the construction of large-scale reservoirs. The reduction of annual runoff, increase of vegetation cover and construction of medium- and large-scale reservoirs were the main reasons accounting for the great reduction of annual sediment discharges of Four Rivers after 2001.

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    新疆石河子草滩湖湿地沉积物地球化学特征及其古环境分析
    张芸,杨振京,孔昭宸,阎顺
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 616-620.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.616
    摘要   HTML   PDF (453KB)

    以新疆石河子草滩湖湿地作为研究地点,采用化学分析手段,获取该地区4 000 a B.P.以来有机质和总氮TN等数据,并结合孢粉数据,综合探讨古气候变化特征。在500~1 080 a B.P.和2 190~3 800 a B.P.期间,有机质和TN含量较高,此时气候较为湿润,泥炭累积;而在1 080~2 190 a B.P.期间,有机质和TN含量均处于剖面最低值,可能出现一次干旱事件,不利于泥炭堆积。湿地开垦为农田,其有机质和TN含量变化迅速减少,养分大量损失,可见开垦活动是引起湿地退化的原因之一。


    Soil organic matter, total organic carbon (TOC) and total nitrogen (TN) are the important indexes to research the change of dry-moist palaeoclimate change and analyze the reason of the wetland degeneration. The Caotanhu wetland in Shihezi, which is located at the transitional zone between the middle section of Tianshan Mountains and the Junggar Basin in Xinjiang, is selected as the research area. Using the chemical analysis methods, the high resolution record of soil organic matter, TOC and TN data since 4 000 a B.P. was obtained. Combined with pollen data, the information of paleoclimate change was extracted. The results revealed during 500-1080 a B.P. and 2190-3800 a B.P., soil organic matter and TN were at their higher values, suggesting that the climate became humid and the wetland developed with abundant freshwater aquatic plants, which contributed to the peat accumulation. But during 1080-2190 a B.P., the lowest values of soil organic matter and TN indicated that a dry climatic condition was not favorable for the accumulation of peat. Once the wetland has been converted into farmland, the great loss in soil organic matter and TN happened, which indicates that human reclamation is one of reasons of the degradation of wetlands.

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    青海省草地资源净初级生产力遥感监测
    卫亚星,王莉雯,石迎春,李路子
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 621-627.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.621
    摘要   HTML   PDF (535KB)

    在研究特定区域的草地光能利用率和环境影响因素典型特点的基础上,建立基于光能利用率的草地NPP遥感估算模型,模拟并分析2006年青海省草地FPAR、光能利用率、NPP的空间分布和季相变化特征。研究结果表明,2006年青海省草地净初级生产力平均值为173.28 gC/(m2·a)。青海省东南部、南部和青海湖周围三个地区,是青海省草地NPP较高的区域。不同草地类型的NPP存在差异,高覆盖度草地的单位面积平均NPP为193.82 gC/(m2·a),中覆盖度草地NPP为157.14 gC/(m2·a),低覆盖度草地NPP为121.08 gC/(m2·a)。


    With research on grassland light use efficiency and environment impacting factors in special regions, the NPP model of grassland based on light use efficiency is built in the paper. The spatio-temporal variations of FPAR(Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation), light use efficiency and NPP for grassland in 2006 in Qinghai Province are simulated and analyzed. The result shows that the mean value of grassland NPP in 2006 in Qinghai Province is 173.28 g/(m2·a). The area with higher grassland NPP values appear in the south-east, the south and areas around the Qinghai Lake of Qinghai Province. NPP for various grassland types is different. The mean NPP in the unit area of dense grassland is 193.82 g/(m2·a),in the middle density grassland is 157.14 g/(m2·a)and in sparse grassland is 121.08 g/(m2·a).

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    滹沱河上游山区近50年蒸散变化及主要影响因子分析
    张瑞钢,莫兴国,林忠辉
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 628-634.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.628
    摘要   HTML   PDF (624KB)

    准确估计流域蒸散,掌握其变化趋势和主要影响因子,对科学认识流域水文循环规律以及管理流域水资源具有重要意义。利用傅抱璞年蒸散量公式计算滹沱河上游山区及其子流域1958~2007年逐年蒸散量,并利用Mann-Kendall-Sneyers等方法分析了流域蒸散趋势和突变特征,及其主要影响因子。结果表明在滹沱河流域傅抱璞公式能够较好的拟合蒸散。50 a来全流域及各子流域年均蒸散呈下降趋势。降水对蒸散起控制作用,相对湿度在流域部分地区显著影响蒸散(α=0.05)。


    It is important for both understanding the hydrological rules and managing the water resources to estimate the evapotranspiration accurately in a basin as well as master the trends of both itself and the principal influence factors. This paper calculated the annual evapotranspiration in the upstream mountain areas of Hutuo River Basin in North China during 1958-2007 by Fu Baopu formula, and analyzed the trend, the abruption and the principal influence factors of the evapotranspiration. The result shows that the Fu Baopu formula can estimate the evapotranspiration satisfactorily. In the past 50 years, the evapotranspiration in Hutuo River basin had a decreasing trend (α=0.05). Precipitation influenced the evapotranspiration strongly, while the potential evapotranspiration has little effect on it. In some of the researched area, relatively humidity also had significant influence (α=0.05). The averaged trends of the studied factors are: annual potential evapotranspiration, annual-averaged daily wind speed, hours of sunshine, relative humidity, and atmospheric pressure decreased significantly, annual precipitation decreased non-significantly, annual-averaged daily maximal, mean, minimal temperature increased significantly (α=0.05). The factors and the difference between their multi-year averaged values before and after significant abruptions are: annual potential evapotranspiration decreased 70.30mm. Daily wind speed and hours of sunshine decreased 0.53 m/s and 0.52 h/d, respectively. Daily maximal, mean, minimal temperature increased 1.09、0.95、1.14℃, respectively. Evapotranspiration and precipitation had no abruptions. The sub-basin averaged geological locations, elevations, land cover, and NDVI do not influence the evapotranspiration significantly within the whole basin.

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    气候和土地利用变化对径流变化影响研究——以伊洛河流域伊河上游地区为例
    梁国付,丁圣彦
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 635-640.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.635
    摘要   HTML   PDF (593KB)

    在实际调查基础上,利用遥感和地理信息系统技术,分析伊洛河流域伊河上游地区气候和土地利用变化对径流变化的影响。结果显示,在研究区域中,林地面积最大,1987~2008年,林地、库塘和建设用地面积持续增加,草地、河流和未利用地面积持续减少,耕地面积则先增加后减少。20世纪80年代以来,土地利用变化在不同阶段都使得年平均径流量减小;80~90年代,气候变化使得年平均径流量减小,而90年代到2000年以后,气候变化使得年平均径流量增加,这与90年代年平均降水量减少,而2000年以后年平均降水量增加密切相关。


    This paper investigated the climate and landuse changes in the upper reaches of the Yihe River since the 1980s. Based on the field investigation, remote sensing and GIS technology, the distributed hydrological model, SWAT (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, was constructed for the studied basin. The results showed that: in the study area, woodland was the dominant landuse type. In 1987-2008, the area of woodland, pond and construction land increased, while the area of the grassland, river and unused land decreased. The area of arable land increased at first, then reduced. Since the 1980s, landuse changes led to the annual average runoff decreased at different stages. From the 1980s to the 1990s, climate changes caused the annual average runoff to decrease, while increase after 2000. All these had a close relation with the annual average precipitation, which was low in the 1990s and increased after 2000.

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    中亚天山托木尔峰地区青冰滩72号冰川雪坑化学特征及其环境指示意义
    张晓宇,李忠勤,王飞腾,王圣杰
    地理科学. 2012, 32 (5): 641-648.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.05.641
    摘要   HTML   PDF (811KB)

    基于2008年7月天山托木尔峰地区青冰滩72号冰川雪坑实测资料,探讨其冰川雪坑离子化学特征及环境指示意义。研究发现,Ca2+、Mg2+是青冰滩72号冰川雪坑中主要阳离子;雪坑中阳离子浓度顺序为:Ca2+>Mg2+>Na+>K+>NH4+,其中,Mg2+、K+和 Ca2+主要反映长距离沙尘源物质传输情况;Cl-和Na+则一半以上来源于海盐;青冰滩72号冰川NO3-浓度高于天山地区含量平均值。


    Snow chemistry and their environmental significance were studied by sampling a snow pit on July 2008 on Glacier No.72 in the Mt.Tumur region. Calcium (Ca2+) and Magnesium (Mg2+) are the dominant cations. The concentration order of the cations is: Ca2+>Mg2+>Na+>K+>NH4+. Ca2+ and Mg2+ reflected the long-distance natural land sources transmission. The concentration and seasonal distribution of Mg2+、Ca2+ and K+ in snow pit of the Glacier No.72 are affected by the input of dust aerosols from Sary Ishikortau desert, Muyunkum desert and Taklimakan desert. The ratio of C(Cl-)/C(Na+) is 1.02 and the non-marine source percent of Na+ is nearly 50%, it means half of the Cl- and Na+ are from sea salts. NO3- on Glacier No.72 was characterised by significant high concentration when compared with the mean value of glaciers in Tianshan region. Most air masses backward trajectories ending in December 2007 and February 2008 have passed the Taklimakan desert, while some even traveled across the industrial zone of the former Soviet Union, indicating that dust from the vast arid regions of central Asia is the dominant source for NO3- in Glacier No.72, while anthropogenic emissions are also an important source of NO3- from surrounding cities.

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