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CN 22-1124/P
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  • 地理科学
      2016年, 第36卷, 第3期 刊出日期:2016-03-20 上一期    下一期
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    中国地级以上城市工业创新效率空间格局研究
    杜志威,吕拉昌,黄茹
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 321-327.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.001
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (707KB)

    以中国288个地级以上城市为研究对象,运用2008年第二次全国经济普查工业创新活动数据,综合考察城市工业创新效率的空间格局及其影响因素。首先,从投入和产出两方面构建了中国城市工业创新效率评价体系,运用DEA包络分析方法,从规模效率和纯技术效率两个维度对城市工业创新技术效率进行分析。然后,以聚类分析划分了3类工业创新效率城市,总结工业创新效率模式的空间特征,并分析了影响空间格局的原因。研究发现:中国城市工业创新效率呈现东强西弱,阶梯状减弱的总体空间格局,工业创新规模效率和纯技术效率的空间特征并不重合;全国尺度上,工业创新效率城市的空间分布与人口密度“黑河-腾冲”线的分布基本一致,区域尺度上,城市间呈现“核心-边缘”空间结构;城市工业创新效率空间格局受到工业发展基础与工业创新能力影响,提高城市工业创新效率关键在于提升工业创新中人力资本要素和优化工业创新投入规模。


    With the development of knowledge economy, Chinese industrialization is transferring from traditional factor-driving stage to innovation-driving stage. Innovation becomes a significant force for promoting urban industrial efficiency. Exploring the spatial pattern of Chinese urban industrial innovation efficiency can make contribution to improving total innovation efficiency and industrial upgrading for China. 288 cities at prefecture level and above in China are chosen as the objects of study, in order to investigate on the spatial pattern of urban industrial innovation efficiency as well as seek its influential factor. To begin with, we use industrial innovation data from national economic census, and establish an index system of urban industrial innovation efficiency, which is constructed from innovation inputs aspect and innovation outputs aspect. By using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), urban industrial innovation technical efficiency (TE) is explained separately from Pure Technical Efficiency (PTE) and Scale Efficiency (SE). Moreover, we divide 3 categories of urban industrial innovation efficiency cities through clustering analysis, exploring spatial pattern characteristic of them. Our findings are 1) Overall spatial pattern of Chinese urban industrial innovation efficiency shows gradient weakened from the east to the west, while the spatial characteristic for PTE and SE is mismatched. 2) Spatial distribution of industrial innovation efficiency cities is approximately coincided with Chinese population distribution, which relates to the “Heihe-Tengchong Line”, and displays obviously “core-periphery” spatial structure in regional scale, such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Changjiang River Delta region, the Zhujiang River Delta region, the Bohai Rim region and the Chengdu-Chongqing region. 3) Industrial innovation capability and Industrial developing basement are developing combined impact on the spatial pattern of Chinese urban industrial innovation efficiency, while improving human capital elements and optimizing the scale of industrial innovation input is the key of urban industrial innovation efficiency.

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    城市规模分布的经济绩效——基于中国市域数据的实证研究
    孙斌栋,李琬
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 328-334.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.002
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (434KB)

    基于2010年市域数据,定量分析市域范围的城市规模分布对经济绩效的影响,并探索最优城市规模分布的影响因素。结果表明,在控制了其它重要的生产要素后,单中心规模分布具有更高的劳动生产率;随着规模由小变大,具有最优经济绩效的城市规模分布形式存在单中心-多中心-单中心的转变;没有发现经济发展水平影响最优城市规模分布的明确证据;西部地区城市规模单中心分布更有助于提高经济绩效。


    In 2011, the proportion of China's urban population exceeded 50%. The focus of China's urbanization is shifting from improving the urbanization rate to optimizing spatial efficiency, and it is of significant importance to explore the optimal city size distribution in terms of economic performance. City size distribution is a kind of spatial structure that reflects individuals' location choice after weighing their own advantages and disadvantages, and this is bound to affect the performance of economy. However, there is no logical consistency answer on which one is more efficient, pursuing mono-centric spatial structure for higher agglomeration economy or hunting polycentric spatial structure for lower agglomeration diseconomy. Besides, research on the economic performance of city size distributions has long been neglected. Existing studies of urban size distribution are mainly concentrated in discovering the stylized facts and rules of city size distribution, validating whether the theory of city size distribution conforming to the facts, and explaining the mechanism on the formation of city size distribution and so on. Based on city-regions cross-sectional data in 2010, this article studies how different city size distribution influences economic performance, what kinds of city size distribution has a higher economic efficiency in the mono-centric or polycentric dimension, and whether the optimal economic performance of urban size distribution is affected by other factors. This conclusions show that: 1) the mono-centric city size distribution tends to be associated with higher labor productivity, but with further samples subdivision, the optimal city size distribution turns up a mono-poly-mono shift along with the rise of scale. 2) No evidence has been found to support that the level of economic development affects the optimal city size distribution. And 3) it is of great significance to shape the cities in China's western region into mono-centric form.

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    21世纪以来中国航空货运空间变化研究
    褚艳玲,宫之光,杨忠振
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 335-341.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.003
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (461KB)

    基于标准差椭圆和空间基尼系数,利用2001~2012年机场和航段的数据对中国航空货运空间变化特征进行分析,为制定航空货运产业发展战略和优化航空货运网络布局提供决策参考。结果表明:① 航空货运的空间格局和经济格局分布一致,航空货运中心由东南沿海地区向西北内陆方向移动;② 航空货运网络由混合式网络向轴辐式枢纽网络转化,由单一机场枢纽发展形成了京津、沪杭、广深和成渝4个组合枢纽;③ 航空货运在机场和航段上分布趋于分散;④ 航空货运主通道集中了30%以上的运输量。


    The domestic express market in China expands quickly since 2000. Air cargo transportation industry becomes a new growth point in China civil aviation transportation industry. In 2012, China civil aviation cargo turnover volume is 57.44×108 tn-km, second behind US in the world. China air transportation varies from both time and space with the international air freight transportation market change and domestic air freight transportation rise. Air freight transportation is a very important part of air transportation and flight network is its spatial carrier to provide air transport service. Illustration of China air transportation feature and its spatial pattern to both air freight transportation industry and aviation industry will contribute to formulate aviation industry development strategy, which has a very important theoretical significance and practical value to China air freight transportation industry development and airline network layout optimization. The air transportation and its spatial pattern are the important topics in air transport field in China. Currently concerning studies are mainly focusing on the passenger traffic. Thus, this paper analyzes the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of air cargo transportation in China based on SDE and Spatial Gini index. SDE is used to describe temporal process of the element spatial distribution. Spatial Gini index is used to measure element concentration in network. With domestic airport and flight segment data from 2001 to 2012, this paper calculates SDE and Spatial Gini index to describe China air cargo transportation and its spatial pattern. The result shows: 1) The spatial pattern of the air cargo transportation is consistent with the economic pattern, mainly concentrating in Shanghai and Hangzhou—the core of Changjiang River Delta, Guangzhou and Shenzhen—the core of Zhujiang River Delta, Beijing and Tianjin—the core of Beijing and Tianjin District, as well as developed areas in western China, (e.g.) Chengdu and Chongqing). China flight transport center is moving to the northwest inland region from the southeast coastal areas; 2) Four combination airports (e.g. Beijing/Tianjin, Shanghai/Hangzhou, Guangzhou/Shenzhen and Chengdu/Chongqing) replace Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou and become four highly concentrated regional air freight transport combination hubs. Air freight network is changing from coexistence hybrid network (point-to-point structure, hub-and-spoke hub structure) to hub-and-spoke network. 3) The air cargo at the airports and flight segments tends to disperse, and its volume on hub airports and main routes reduces slowly year on year. Regional airports and branch flight segments undertake more and more air cargo. 4) The air cargo transportation main corridors are established between four combination hubs. On those corridors, the total air cargo volume reduces from 47.04% in 2001 to 30.91% in 2012.

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    城乡文化信息流时空整合的理论体系构建
    朱媛媛,曾菊新,韩勇,罗翔
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 342-351.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.004
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (746KB)

    为了探寻城乡文化信息流的基本规律,将综合运用大数据思维和Petri网理论,通过“3S”集成技术以及State flow分析工具,旨在解决如何测度城乡文化信息的流态关系和构建时空整合模型两个科学问题。从“动态”的城乡文化“场域”视野出发,以城乡文化信息流的时空整合为研究对象,探索文化信息流对新城乡文化空间形成的影响,并研制出驱动机理和时空整合模式,初步构建现代城乡文化信息流的时空整合理论,力图为促进新文化地理学和信息社会学等多学科的交融发展创建新的理论菜单,为加快城乡文化一体化发展奠定理论基础,为中国城乡文化信息资源共享工程的可持续建设提供科学理论支撑。


    In order to explore the basic rules of cultural information flowing between rural and urban areas, the scientific questions which are how to simulate quantitatively the flowing state and how to construct the spatio-temporal integration model are to be answered based on the big-data thinking, Petri network theory, RS-GIS-GPS integration technology and the analysis tool of State flow. From the perspective of dynamic “field” of rural and urban cultures, the spatio-temporal integration of cultural information flow between urban and rural areas is our research object. While, the research is to explore the influences of culture information flow on the forming of rural-urban cultures in space, uncover its mechanism, construct spatio-temporal integration model, initially establish spatio-temporal integration theory of rural-urban cultural information flow, and strive to promote the integrative development of multidiscipline such as culture geography and information sociology and create new theory list, which is to establish the theoretical foundation for accelerating the development of urban-rural cultural integration, and to provide the scientific and theoretical basis for sustainable construction of CIRSP between rural and urban areas in China.

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    在华跨国公司功能区位的时空演化研究
    王俊松,颜燕
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 352-358.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.005
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (801KB)

    基于1979~2012年财富500强外资跨国公司在华投资数据探讨跨国公司功能区位在中国的时空演化趋势及原因。研究表明,跨国公司在中国进行多次连续跟进投资,其功能布局及演化与城市等级及区域经济环境变化高度相关。总部和研发集聚在一线城市,生产和销售分布在省会和周边城市。跨国公司在华区位重心出现显著的变化,早期的功能区位在空间上呈现较明显的错位,研发和总部重心集聚在北京,而生产和销售重心集聚在华南地区,随着区域环境的变化,研发功能重心向南偏移,生产和销售重心向北方转移,各功能重心倾向于从空间上集聚在一起。研究表明,区域格局的变化是影响跨国公司功能区位重心演化的重要原因。


    With the development of Chinese transition, multinational corporations (MNCs) of fortune 500 gradually expand in China functionally and spatially. The article intended to explore how MNCs functional locations evolves in China and the mechanism of their expansion using fortune 500 investment statistics during 1979-2012. The results show that, 1) MNCs have invested in China sequentially. Production institutions and office were set up in China first. Then headquarters, R&D and sales institutions were set up in China in subsequence. After the government published the provisions of foreign-funded joint-stock company on several issues in 1995 and China’s entry into WTO, foreign institutions entering in China have been grown quickly. 2) Spatially, different functions have different location preference. Headquarters and R&D institutions emphasize talent and information resources, and inclined to distribute in top cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. Production institutes tended to locate in low cost areas and distribute across different level cities. Sales and business service functions tended to locate in great market potential areas. 3) The article highlighted the trend of subsequent entering, function upgrading and gravity transformation of MNCs based on expanding pattern of Siemens in China. 4) The function distribution and evolution has much to do with urban hierarchy and regional economic environment. Headquarters and R&D functions agglomerate in first tier hierarchy cities, production and sales distribute broadly in regional center such as province capital and other cities. 5) The location gravity center of MNCs has experienced apparent transformation. In early period, headquarters and R&D facilities agglomerated in Beijing, while production and sales gravity center agglomerated in the southern China. With the change of regional development environment, the gravity of R&D institutes moved to south and the gravity of production and sales moved to north. All gravity centers of MNC function intended to agglomerate together. 6) The results showed that the transformation of regional economic pattern is the main cause of MNCs functional gravity evolution. At the beginning of opening reforms, the strategy of regional economic development gave priority to coastal areas. The main function of MNCs entered in China is production and sales, which were mainly located in the southern China. With the marketization and globalization gravity shifting to the northern China, the gravity of sales and production of MNCs were also shifting to north of China. The campaign of western development since 1999 induced production, business service, office and headquarters of MNCs shifting to west. The balancing of regional spatial pattern propelled MNCs function gravity agglomerate together. The vertical linkages of functions further have propelled the co-agglomeration of functions of MNCs.

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    基于蜂群算法的城市土地利用变化建模
    章欣欣,栾海军,花利忠
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 359-366.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.006
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (655KB)

    通过引入人工蜂群算法用于构建土地利用变化的驱动力模型,分析土地利用变化的驱动力机制。算法原理通过模仿蜜蜂采蜜行为,自动搜索和提取土地利用变化样本中不同土地变化类型所对应的驱动力分类规则。分类规则的构建采用“IF…THEN”形式,并选取3种不同的适应度函数分别进行模拟验证。研究案例基于UCI实验数据集和美国纽卡斯尔市真实土地利用变化数据集。由实验结果可知,采用蜂群算法模型的总体精度和Kappa系数评价优于其它算法,表明蜂群算法应用于土地利用变化建模具有可行性。


    This article applied artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm to modelling the urban land use change. The principle of ABC algorithm is to discover the optimum nectar source by imitating bees’ behavior of gathering honey. Hence, ABC is a new kind of optimization algorithm same as genetic algorithm, neural network, which have been wildly implemented in the modelling of land use cover/change (LUCC). This study focus on the implementation at three aspects: 1) Land use transition rules: In order to analyzes the effects between land use dynamic and its driving forces, we defined the format of land use transition rules, which are composed of land use type, the fitness function, the cover percentage and the corresponding upper and lower values of each factor. Therefore these transition rules, which are obtained via automatic searching from samples, are able to demonstrate the relationship between land use dynamic and driving forces in the form of “IF…THEN”. 2) Fitness functions: In order to eliminate the distractions caused by imbalanced samples, we chose three different fitness functions to evaluate the classification results. These functions, including the G-mean function, the F-measure function and the Percentage of Correct Predicted (PCP), are well suit to various requirements such as sensitivity preferred rather than the overall accuracy. 3) Performance testing: two experimentations, which are based on UCI datasets and reality land use change of New Castle County between 1984 and 2002, were provided. The classification results were also compared with logistic regression, neural network, SVM and Ada-boost algorithms. According to the UCI datasets, the ABC which adopt the PCP as fitness function has acquired the best overall accuracy. They were 98.00% for Iris and 97.51% for Breast-Cancer-W. On contrary, from the results of New Castle County datasets, the ABC using G-mean instead of PCP as fitness function has obtain better results, which were 78.53% of overall accuracy and 0.569 3 of Kappa coefficient. These differences indicates that the G-mean function are more suitable for imbalanced samples. In addition, we also provided a discussion about the optimal parameter selection problem of ABC. In this article, when the number of bee was 100, the maximum of integration time was 500 and the limitation of unimproved-times was 50, the ABCs had achieved the best performance. In conclusion, the comparison of two cases shows that the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient of ABC algorithms are comparable to the other algorithms. Hence, the ABC algorithm is appropriate for the modeling of urban land use change.

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    土地集约利用评价中适度指标标准化方法改进研究——以人口密度指标为例
    郭欢欢,张孝成,李仕川
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 367-374.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.007
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (696KB)

    基于极值标准化等传统方法开展的土地集约利用多因素综合评价中,评价因子与评价结果为线性相关关系难以妥善处理适度指标,以边际效用递减规律为理论基础,在分析适度指标标准化建模需求基础上,构建了基于二次函数的标准化处理方法,并以重庆市人口密度指标为例开展了实证研究。研究表明:适度指标对评价值的贡献符合边际效用递减规律;基于二次函数的标准化方法解决了适度指标在不同区间作用方向不同的需求;实证研究表明,改进方法较传统方法评价结论更符合实际,政策启示更符合重庆市五大功能区战略中的人口调控策略。


    Multi-factor comprehensive evaluation is widely used to assess intensive land use, and positive and/or negative indicators are usually employed in the evaluations. In practice, moderate indicators are exiting, which have positive effects on intensive land use within a certain value range, and negative effects when exceed the range, such as urban comprehensive volume rate, building density and population density. Moderate indicators pose a challenge to traditional multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method because the traditional method to standardize the indicators is based on a linear relationship between the original indicator values and standardization results. In this article, we propose an improved indicator standardization method based on the law of diminishing returns. This method supposes the land user as a consumer, the indicator standardization value Fi as utility and the indicator value xi as consumption unit. Consequently, the contribution of moderate indicator to the assessment results of intensive land use follows the law of diminishing returns. The model to simulate the standardized values of moderate indicators should meet three criterion: when xx0,f(x)’≥0;when xx0, f(x)’≤0;f(x) is a second-order continuous and f(0)=0. Based on quadratic equation, we proposed a standardization formula: Fi=axi2+bxi. This formula meets the three criterion, and the parameters a and b can be calculated by indicator ideal value x0 and coordinate origin [0, 0]. Thereafter, a new multi-factor comprehensive model to evaluate intensive land use was built. This model combines the standardized moderate indicators derived from the improved method and the linear indicators calculated by the traditional method. Then, the population density of Chongqing was used to test and compare the improved and the traditional methods. The results show: 1) the population density of the metropolitan economic circle is greater than the ideal value 0.74×104/km2, and the weight of this indicator is 0.147 6. Moreover, the contribution score of population density in the intensive land use of this areas is 14.76. 2) The formula of the improved model is Fi=-1.826xi2+2.703xi. The improved method generated decreased value of the contribution of population density in the intensive land use of the metropolitan economic circle, compared to the traditional method. While, increased values were derived from the improved method in different degrees in other areas. 3) The evaluation results from the improved method are more objective and rational compared to the traditional method. Furthermore, the results from the improved method suggest policies more consistent with the population control strategy of the five functional districts of the Chongqing city. Although the quadratic multi-factor comprehensive evaluation model shows strength in standardizing population density of Chongqing, it needs further improvement and applications in other area.

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    机会公平视角下绍兴城市公园绿地可达性评价
    陈秋晓,侯焱,吴霜
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 375-383.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.008
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (990KB)

    以绍兴古城及周边地区为研究区域,利用居住建筑的空间分布来测算评价区域内常住人口空间分布;继而利用GIS工具来测量公园绿地服务范围,并统计出市民可享用公园绿地的选择机会的空间分布情况,从而在精细尺度上基于空间公平视角实现对公园绿地的可达性测量。研究表明,公园绿地服务范围内部存在着不公平现象,进而提出了相应的公园绿地布局优化策略。


    As a kind of urban public facilities, parks are the main places for citizens’ amusement and relaxation. Only when citizens can conveniently access to parks, they can function well. Park accessibility is considered as the main factor that will influence citizens’ use of them. That is the reason why scholars have paid attention to studies on the accessibility to parks for recent decades. In the previous studies on the evaluation of accessibility to parks, the relevant measures mainly focused on the ratio of parks’ service area to the total area, while spatial distribution variation in citizens selection opportunities for parks use was somehow overlooked, which, to some extent, embodied relevant studies’ limitations in representation of spatial equity on parks’ spatial distribution. From the perspective of opportunities equity, reasonable park spatial distribution lies in: citizens possess the same selection chance for parks use when they pay the same cost to visit them. On the other hand, the relevant studies always ignored population distribution, or simply assumed that population was evenly distributed, which will finally influenced the evaluation results of accessibility to greens. Taking the ancient city and its neighbor region in Shaoxing City as the study area, residential building information were utilized to estimate the distribution of permanent resident population, then GIS network analysis tools were used to measure the service area of parks, the distribution of selection opportunities residents possessed for parks use was revealed, and park accessibility was obtained in the fine spatial scale from the perspective of spatial equity. The analysis results revealed that opportunities inequity exists in the service area of parks, which can be more accurately measured by incorporating the attraction index. Some relevant optimization strategies for park distribution were proposed such as improvement on spatial quality of parks, increase of community parks inside the ancient city, parks construction synchronized with urban development, reduction of spatial inequity by utilizing the price mechanism in parks’ densely distributed area. However in this study, attraction index was quite objective, and the capacity of park was neglected as well. Unique demands of specifically group such as the elder, kids or the disabled for parks were unfortunately not considered, which will somehow deviate the origin that public resources should be leant to the disadvantaged group. The further study should be conducted in the near future.

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    基于产业结构视角的云南省县域经济差异研究
    陈利,朱喜钢,李小虎
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 384-392.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.009
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (590KB)

    基于云南省1992~2012年统计年鉴数据,采用偏离份额分析、基尼系数产业分解方法,分析产业结构演变对云南省县域经济差异的影响。结果表明:云南省县域经济差异受到产业结构偏离和竞争偏离影响较大,滇中县域在产业结构上优势显著,但相对竞争力较弱。滇西和滇南县域竞争优势明显,但不具结构优势;最近10 a来,滇东县域在产业结构、竞争力方面占优,与滇西和滇南县域的差异拉大;从基尼系数产业分解结果看,第二产业是导致云南省县域经济差异扩大的首要因素。此外,第三产业对县域经济差异贡献不断加大,对县域发展不平衡影响日益凸显;产业基尼系数变化分解结果揭示,产业集中效应扩大了县域经济差异,而结构效应则可以缩小县域经济差距,据此提出以产业结构调整来协调县域经济发展的政策建议。


    The purpose of this article is to study the influence of industrial structure on the economic inequalities among counties at the less developed Yunnan Province in China. In the process of modernization, the country economy is the basic element of national economy and the ties of city with rural economic. Nowadays, Chinese economic operation of the prominent contradictions such as the regional inequality mostly is reflected in regional scale at countries. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss the county economic difference in order to coordinate regional development. Yunnan as a frontier, ethnic, mountainous and poor district, it is located in the western inland and one of the most imbalanced areas with regional development in China. After studied the literatures, we found the academia has not discussed the country economy from the perspective of industrial structure in Yunnan Province. So this article takes the shift share analysis and Industry decomposition of the Gini coefficient methods, based on the data of statistical yearbook, to analyze the evolution of industrial structure effecting county economic difference in Yunnan Province. The results show that: the economic disparities of counties affected by the deviation of industrial structure and competition greatly, the eastern counties of the industrial structure have a significant advantage, but the relative competitive advantage is weak, the western and southern counties have more competitive advantage, but less structural disadvantages than the eastern counties. In recent years, the eastern counties are dominant in the industrial structure, competitiveness, and the difference between the western and southern county are widened; the results from the decomposition of the Gini coefficient of industry indicate that the secondary industry is the leading factor causing the county economy difference. In addition, the tertiary industry contributes to increase county economic difference and its impacts on county economic difference has become increasingly prominent; also the change of industrial Gini coefficient decomposition reveals that the industry concentration effects to expand the county economy divergence but the structure effect can reduce the economic disparity. Finally, some well-directed policy recommendations and measures are provided to coordinate the county economic development.

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    长江三角洲城市群空间效率测度研究
    崔大树,张晓亚
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 393-400.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.010
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (609KB)

    以长江三角洲城市群为例,构建空间效率的指标体系,运用DEA模型测度了1994~2013年长江三角洲城市群的空间效率及2005年、2009年和2013年长三角城市群各地级市的空间效率。基于ESDA空间分析平台,运用局部自相关模型对长三角城市群空间效率空间关联格局进行分析。对长三角城市群空间效率的评价分析发现,阶段性演变过程呈“W”型波动并在波动中上升的特征。空间效率有效的城市数量在逐渐增加的同时空间分异明显,但城市群内个体城市的空间效率差距在不断缩小。聚类特征表现出空间效率与城市规模、行政等级及区位优势等存在一定相关性,空间效率分布与要素集聚程度高度相关。长三角城市群的空间效率表现为明显的非均衡趋势,空间分异的集聚程度加剧。


    This article took the Changjiang River as an example to build up an index system of spatial efficiency and measured the spatial efficiency in the Changjiang River Delta in 1994-2013 and those of cities in Changjiang River Delta in 2005, 2009 and 2013 by using the DEA model. Based on the analysis of ESDA spatial platform and Local Moran's I, the article analyzed the spatial correlation pattern of spatial efficiency in the Changjiang River Delta. The efficiency of the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomeration and its spatial evolution process was in the "W" type characteristics and rose in volatility. Space efficiency of cities increased gradually while urban space differentiation was obvious, but the individual cities of urban agglomeration spatial efficiency gap was narrowing. Clustering characteristics showed the space efficiency and city scale, and the administrative level and location advantages have a certain correlation. Space efficiency is highly associated with the degree of distribution and factors of agglomeration. Too high or too low element agglomeration size will lower efficiency of urban agglomeration, and factors of agglomeration scale moderation will significantly promote the efficiency of agglomeration.

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    基于SoftGIS的土地利用地域性认同测度研究——以荷兰为例
    彭建超,钱畅,吴群,Dirk Strijker,Frans Sijtsma
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 401-409.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.011
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (593KB)

    在剖析地域性认同双重内涵及其与土地利用关系的基础上,结合SoftGIS技术,研究构建土地利用地域性认同测度方法,并以荷兰为例进行实证分析。数据分析显示,传统GIS数据可与土地利用认知数据相融合,基于核密度修正法构建的土地利用地域性认同指数可测度地域性认同的空间差异,应用于土地利用评价或规划决策。结论表明,测度平台在问卷设计和调查空间尺度上具有灵活性,数据收集快捷,通过平台的高清卫星地图定位,调查对象可反馈空间准确、情景真实的土地利用地域性认同信息。


    Place cognition developed in the human and environment interactions during land use change processes is increasingly valued by land use studies. Traditional place identity researches focus on qualitative methodology, results of which are seldom applied in land use management practices. This study is to build a framework to measure place identity in land use based on real land use environment background, in order to provide reference for land use social impact evaluation. Methods used include SoftGIS and case study. The dual meaning of place identity and its connection with land use are argued. Through integrating place identity theory with SoftGIS technique which is used to obtain the information of land users’ experience, knowledge, perception and valuation about environment, a framework for the platform to measure place identity in land use is designed. With confining the evaluation object as non-construction land, the platform is established by focusing on the core issue ‘which places are you most concerned about or are most attractive to you, and why?’ The platform includes four parts, namely user participation, project introduction, place marking and place evaluation. Online investigation is carried out through the Netherlands with the proposed SoftGIS platform. Data of 3 637 participants from six regions are obtained within two weeks. Participants are shown various maps on which they can mark their selected place with a pin. They are asked what makes that place special afterwards. With the online satellite map, regions of three different scales are shown. One is participant’s neighborhood, with a 2 kilometer radius centered on his or her home. Another indicates participant’s work activity region, with a 20 kilometer circle drawn around home. The third shows the Netherlands. 12 204 places are marked in the end. Based on the survey data, the study analyzes land use place identity difference among various social groups and explores the spatial difference with metrics. By modifying the Kernel Density Estimation method, a so-called Land Use Identity Index (LUI) is built to measure the intensity of land use place identity at a specific destination. With LUI, it is able to compare place identity between different land uses. An example of applying LUI in a land use planning project in Almere in the Netherlands is provided. Conclusions show that, compared with traditional methods, questionnaire design and investigation spatial scale with the platform are flexible. A fast data collection process can be witnessed. The platform encodes maps of high resolution satellite images, so that the field survey can make participants effectively recognize and locate the real land-use environment, and feedback real and accurate place identity information on land use. Case study indicates that it is feasible to integrate traditional quantitative GIS data and qualitative land use cognition data. The designed LUI can quantify spatial variance of place identity in land use. The result shows meaningful implication and may be applied to land use assessment or to decision-making in land-use planning projects.

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    基于BDI决策的MAS-CA模型黄海海滨城镇格局模拟研究——以大连金石滩为例
    杨俊,裴颖,席建超,葛全胜,李雪铭
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 410-416.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.012
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (539KB)

    基于BDI决策MAS-CA模型,利用1998年、2003年、2008年和2013年土地利用数据,对大连金石滩2020年和2030年城镇区域面积进行模拟,Kappa系数达到0.635。研究结果表明: BDI决策补充了MAS-CA模型决策的不足,使得模型整体框架进一步完善,模拟结果具体准确,精度达到89.1%。金石滩城镇用地呈现出依附海岸线和交通线的格局,向海岸线靠拢,城镇用地在中部区域比较集中且城镇用地有向周围区域扩张的趋势,葡萄沟村、河咀子村、庙上村、什字街村转变最大。从金石滩城镇格局的模拟结果发现,海岸线因素引导着城镇格局的转变方向。滨海地区的生态环境容易被破坏,政府应该采取措施寻找土地利用与生态环境保护的完美平衡点。


    Based on MAS-CA model improved by BDI decision model, using the land use data of 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2013, this article simulated the urban landscape pattern in 2020 an d 2030 of Jinshitan, Dalian ,which is the typical urban area of coast of the Yellow Sea. The Kappa coefficient is 0.635. The results show that:1) The BDI model supplement the deficiency of the MAS-CA model. After joining BDI decision, the MAS-CA model framework is further improved. Thus makes the results more accurate and specific. The precision reaches 89.1%. 2)The model simulation results show that the urban landscape adjoins to the coastline and the traffic line in Jinshitan area. The urban land moves closer to the coast line. Urban land concentrated in the central region of the area, and obviously expanded into the surrounding area. Land use transformations were most heavily happened in the village of Putaogou, Hejuzi, Miaoshang, Shizijie.3) There are many factors affecting land use conversion. The distance to the coastline is the leading factor of the trend of urban landscape pattern transformation in Jinshitan area. Because of the ecological environment of the coastal area is easily destroyed in the coastal area, the government should take measures to find the perfect balance point between environment protection and economic development.

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    区域旅游生态效率实证分析——以海南省为例
    姚治国,陈田,尹寿兵,李新刚
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 417-423.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.013
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (469KB)

    基于旅游碳足迹、生态效率、旅游经济效应等理论,构建了旅游生态效率模型,在定量计算海南省2012年旅游生态效率值的基础上,对旅游生态效率区域差异进行了成因机制分析。主要结论有:海南省2012年旅游交通生态效率为0.898元/kg,旅游住宿生态效率为7.13元/kg,旅游活动生态效率为16.32元/kg,旅游综合生态效率为1.787元/kg,旅游活动和旅游住宿的生态效率值大于旅游交通生态效率值。在出行距离既定的情况下,优化旅游生态效率的措施在于:提高人均消费水平、延长平均停留时间、增加平均参与活动频次,即“短距离、长停留、高消费”的市场模式有利于优化旅游生态效率,反之,“长距离、短停留、低消费”的市场模式则拉低了旅游生态效率值。海南省旅游者外部交通平均距离较大、乘坐飞机旅游者比例较高、旅游收入统计值低于实际值等原因叠加起来使其旅游生态效率水平略次于部分旅游地。


    Based on the theory of the Tourism Carbon Footprint, Tourism Eco-efficiency and Tourism Economic Effects, this article proposed the concept and model of Tourism Eco-efficiency. This study took Hainan Province as a research object, calculated the tourism eco-efficiency value of Hainan Province in 2012 quantitatively, and made a mechanism analysis on regional differences of tourism eco-efficiency. According to the empirical research, this article drew some conclusions as follows: 1) In term of the tourism eco-efficiency of Hainan Province in 2012, the tourism eco-efficiency of tourism transport was 0.898 yuan/kg, the tourism eco-efficiency of tourism accommodation is 7.13 yuan/kg, the tourism eco-efficiency of tourism activity or amusement was 16.32 yuan/kg, the total tourism eco-efficiency was 1.787 yuan/kg, the tourism eco-efficiency value of tourism activity and tourism accommodation is greater than tourism transport. 2) In case of the same travel distance, there were some measures to enhance the tourism eco-efficiency as follows: to improve the level of per capita consumption, to extend the average residence time, to increase the average frequency of participation of tourism activities, it is also known as an theory that tourism market structure with "short-distance, long stay, high consumption" is conducive for optimizing tourism eco-efficiency, vice versa, tourism market structure with "long-distance, short stay, lower consumption" will drives down the value of tourism eco-efficiency. 3) The reasons that the tourism eco-efficiency of Hainan Province is lower than some compared destination could be summarized as: longer tourists average outside transport distance, higher proportion of tourists choosing aircraft as transport model, tourism revenues by statistics relatively lower to the actual consumption figure.

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    吉林省旅游业发展时空差异性及空间布局
    朱麟奇,李秋雨,刘继生
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 424-430.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.014
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (450KB)

    以吉林省9个地市州为研究单元,运用计量经济学的方法,对吉林省2002~2013年旅游业、地区间旅游业发展水平差异变化的时空演变特征进行实证分析。结果表明:地区间旅游业发展水平相对差异有所缩小,但绝对差异持续扩大;旅游业发展空间差异较大,旅游收入高的地区集中分布在长春和吉林两地,2010年后延边表现出强劲的发展势头,其他地区旅游业相对落后。结合计量分析结果,对吉林省旅游业空间布局,提出“双核、一群、四组”的空间结构,并提出了通过强化核心区的辐射作用、明确区域旅游空间定位、加快落后地区旅游业发展等实现吉林省旅游业空间结构优化的路径。


    Based on the method of econometrics, taking 9 prefectures and cities in Jilin Province as regional study unit, we analyze the tourism overall level, the spatial and temporal characteristics of tourism development in Jilin Province in 2002`2013. The results show that the status of tourism industry and its contribution to the economic development are increasing in Jilin Province. Although the relative difference of tourism development among the regions has narrowed down, the absolute difference is keeping expanding. The reason is that Jilin Province attaches great importance to the development of tourism and takes tourism as a strategic emerging industries and an important way to develop economy, transform development mode, optimize the industrial structureand improve the livelihood of the people. Therefore, tourism is rapidly developing for each region. However,because of the difference of tourism resources, traffic location, economic base and tourism economy, the absolute difference of tourism development in cities and counties is still widening, and spatial difference of tourism development is outstanding. The spatial agglomeration degree is high, but there is a tendency to develop in dispersed direction, the decline of space agglomeration degree can be attributed to the development of tourism industry in Yanbian, Baishan, Tonghua which is gradually weakening the layout of Changchun and Jilin as a single core circle. To realize the coordinated development of tourism, each region should suit one's measures to local conditions, and strive for the division of labor, the characteristics, the advantages, more benefits in whole tourism space layout. Based on the results of measurement and analysis, this article puts forward the spatial structure of "dual core, a group, four groups". Dual core refers to the "Changchun and Jilin" as the core; a group refers to the Central Industrial Tourism Group, consisting of Changchun, Jilin, Siping, Songyuan, Meihekou; four groups refer to the periphery of four major tourism groups: 1) western tourism group containing Baicheng-Song Yuan, 2) southwest tourism group containing Siping-Liaoyuan, 3) central and southern tourism group containing Tonghua-Baishan and 4) Yanji, Hunchun, Tumen River downstream tourism group. Finally, some suggestions are put forward: strengthening the radiation effect of the core area, making a clear regional tourism spatial location,highlighting the ethnic customs and the balanced development of regional tourism industry.

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    安徽省旅游政策变迁及其空间 n.响应研究
    韩卢敏,陆林,杨兴柱
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 431-438.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.015
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (549KB)

    借助于经济学供给需求分析视角,构建旅游政策变迁及其空间响应的理论框架,根据新制度经济学路径依赖理论和利益集团理论,探寻旅游政策变迁的路径和动因,揭示旅游政策变迁和旅游空间结构发展演化的内在联系。并以安徽省为例,根据改革开放之后安徽省旅游业发展的不同阶段,将旅游政策变迁划分为形成期、密集期和协调融合期3个时期,其空间响应状态分别为点状格局、单一板块格局和多板块空间格局。分析得出,在中国经济体制转轨的背景下,旅游发展由政府主导型向市场主导型转变,旅游政策在不同时期通过其作用机制引导、激励利益主体投资建设旅游节点、交通设施等行为,推动旅游空间格局由点状格局向板块格局发展演化,旅游政策的空间响应强度取决于政府对信息的掌握程度和政策对利益主体的激励程度。


    The evolution of tourism spatial structure was impacted profoundly by institutional elements in addition to resource endowments, levels of economic development, transportation and other factors. Based on the perspective of supply demand analysis, this article constructed the theoretical framework of tourism policy change and its spatial response, according to the path dependence theory and the interest groups theory of new institutional economics. We explored the path and motivation of tourism policy change to reveal the inner link between the tourism policy change and the development of the tourism spatial structure. And meanwhile, we took Anhui Province as an example, according to the different stages of the development of tourism industry, the change of tourism policy was divided into three periods: the formation period, the intensive period and the coordination and integration period, whose spatial response of the tourism industry was point pattern, single plate pattern and multi plate spatial pattern, respectively. We found that in the background of China's economic system transition, the tourism development was converted from the government-led to the market-led, tourism policies motivated the interest groups to invest tourism nodes, transportation facilities and so on, through its effect mechanism in different periods, and promoted the evolution of tourism spatial pattern from the point pattern to the plate pattern, the spatial response intensity of the tourism policy depended on the degree of government information and the degree of incentive of the policy to the interest groups.

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    1961~2010年中国农业洪旱灾害时空特征、成因及影响
    顾西辉,张强,张生
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 439-447.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.016
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1403KB)

    搜集并分析了全国29个省份(不包括港、澳、台地区)1961~2010年农业洪旱灾害数据,深入探讨了中国洪旱灾害时空变异规律及其对粮食产量的影响。研究结果表明:中国大部分省份农业洪涝、干旱灾害具有明显的突变和趋势特征。中国中部、中西部及西北部洪涝灾害呈显著上升趋势;西北、东北地区及云南等地区干旱灾害呈显著上升趋势。除华北和东北地区外,洪涝灾害对农业的威胁日益严峻,而干旱灾害则无显著变化。这对中国粮食安全形成了重大挑战,尤其是西部以及北部地区粮食灾损率和灾损量显著上升。降水时空分布发生变化以及人类活动共同影响了中国农业洪涝、干旱时空变化特征。


    Data collection was done on flood/drought-induced loss of agricultural products and also crop fields from 29 provinces(municipality) in period of 1961-2010. Change properties were analyzed using trend test method such as Mann-Kendall trend test in this study to investigate spatio-temporal distribution of flood/ drought hazards and related impacts on agricultural productivity over China. The results indicated that: 1) Flood hazards are significant increasing trends in middle, mid-west and northwest parts of China. Evident increase of drought hazards, however, is observed in northwest, northeast parts of China and also in the Yunnan Province. In China except north China and northeast China, flood hazards have enhancing impacts and no evident negative impacts from drought hazards can be identified; 2) Abrupt changes of flood-affected and flood-damaged crop areas in the northeast, north and middle China are found mainly during 1980s and during 1990s in the south and southwest China. The abrupt changes of drought-affected crop areas however are detected mainly in 1984 and those of drought-damaged crop areas in south and north China are mainly in 1977 and 1984 in the middle and east China; 3) Spatio-temporal alterations of flood/drought hazards result in evident increase of hazard-induced loss and loss rate. Conspicuous impacts of flood/drought hazard on agricultural productivity can be detected in west and north China; 4) Increased seasonal precipitation amount and also the intensifying precipitation extremes give rise to increasing intensity and frequency of flood/drought hazards in northwest, southwest and middle China. Decrease of seasonal precipitation amount results in higher frequency of droughts in northeast and north China. This study is of great significance in planning and management of agricultural activities under the influences of climate change across China.

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    毛乌素沙漠东南缘滴哨沟湾剖面DGS1层段粒度特征及其指示的全新世气候变化
    舒培仙,李保生,牛东风,王丰年,温小浩,司月君,陈琼
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 448-457.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.017
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (679KB)

    分析滴哨沟湾剖面全新统DGS1段的粒度数据,认为流动沙丘砂、泥炭、砂质古土壤、古固定-半固定沙丘砂到湖沼相和次生黄土的颗粒总体上变细,分选变差。结合腹足类动物化石和湖沼相地层中石英砂粒表面电镜扫描,认为DGS1粒度结果实际上是全新世以来多次冬夏季风的交互演替过程的气候-地质记录。据此,将DGS1粒度信号记录的全新世气候分为4个阶段——全新世早期好转期、全新世鼎盛期、大暖期向寒冷期转变波动期和降温不稳定的沙漠化频繁变化时期。


    The DGS1 segment in the Dishaogouwan section from the Salawusu River valley is a typical stratum to study the climate variations in the Holocene. Based on the dating ages and analysis of the grain-size features within the DGS1,we find that the particle gradually becomes finer but the sorting rate becomes poorer from mobile dune sands, peat, paleosols, semi-fixed sand dunes to the lacustrine facies and secondary loess; the grain-size parameter values of Mz(?), σ1(?), SK1 in the dune sands are lower than those in the lacustrine facies or secondary loess, and the KG value shows opposite trends; the Mz ranges from 2.26 to 3.36 (average 2.55) in the dune sands, 2.33 to 6.33 (average 4.28) in the lacustrine facies and 4.25 to 5.27 (average 4.58) in the secondary loess; the σ1(?) ranges from 0.51 to 2.51 (average 0.97) in the dune sands, 0.81 to 3.25 (average 2.13) in the lacustrine facies and 1.10 to 2.46 (average 1.46) in the secondary loess; the SK1 ranges from 0.01 to 0.45 (average 0.29) in the dune sands, 0.09 to 0.53 (average 0.32) in the lacustrine facies and 0.22 to 0.38 (average 0.36) in the secondary loess; the KG ranges from 0.92 to 1.70 (average 1.42) in the dune sands, 0.65 to 1.80 (average 1.13) in the lacustrine facies and 1.22 to 1.51 (average 1.44) in the secondary loess. They display distinct variations that correspond to the sedimentary changes. The surface microstructure of the quartz grains in the lacustrine facies under the electron microscope scanning shows typical aeolian characteristics with good roundness, without precipitated silica, but with pits on the surface. Together with the freshwater gastropod fossils discovered in the stratigrapgical layers, we suggest that the grain-size cycles in the DGS1 segment actually reflect the climate variations in the alternation of East Asian winter and summer monsoons in the Holocene, and the climate of the Holocene can be divided into four stages: the warming period of the Early Holocene; Holocene heyday; the fluctuation period from the Megathermal to cold; and the cooling period of instability and desertification. The climate changes in the DGS1 during the Holocene correspond well to those found in the North Atlantic and some places in China, which probably results from the global climate changes in the Holocene.

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    1980~2013年新疆高空大气温度变化特征
    柏玲,陈忠升,王祖静,赵本福
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 458-465.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.018
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (513KB)

    基于1980~2013年新疆地区8个探空站逐日观测资料,利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法,分析新疆30多年来高空大气温度时间序列的变化趋势、突变时间及二者的显著性,探讨其与地面温度变化关系。结果表明:近30多年来,新疆对流层上层至平流层中下层表现为降温趋势,对流层中下层呈升温趋势,对流层上层和平流层中下层降温幅度大于对流层中下层的增温幅度;新疆高空温度的变化存在明显的季节差异;新疆高空各层温度在20世纪90年代初发生显著性突变,晚于北半球地面温度突变年份,早于相对应的地面温度突变时间;新疆对流层中下层温度在不同时段和不同季节与地面温度的变化不同,1980~2013年二者均呈显著的增温趋势,而1998~2013年二者的变暖趋势均减缓,甚至还表现为微弱的下降趋势。


    With the growing effect of global warming on the environment and socio-economic development, climate change research has become a hot topic and attracted broad attention from national government departments and the public. In its latest report for 2013, the IPCC has noted that the global mean surface temperature has increased by 0.85℃ (0.65-1.06℃), and the annual average temperature from 2003 to 2012 increased by 0.78℃ relative to 1850-1900, a period of nearly 130 years (in 1880-2012), indicating that rapid global warming is an indisputable fact. However, temperature changes are not limited to the earth surface, but are extending to the troposphere and the stratosphere which are important components of the Earth's climate system. Changes occurring at the surface, in the troposphere, and in the stratosphere are three main components of climate change. As an indispensable foundation for climate-change research, the determination on the change trend of upper-air temperature has quickly become one of the most important directions of climate-change research in recent years. In this study, based on the daily observed data from eight sounding stations in Xinjiang in 1980-2013, the change trends, abrupt change points, and their significance of upper-air temperature were analyzed using Mann-Kendall (MK) nonparametric test, and the relation between upper-air and surface temperature changes were also carried on a preliminary discussion. The results are indicated as follows: in last more than 30 years, patterns of statistically significant upper tropospheric and mid-lower stratospheric cooling and mid-lower tropospheric warming are clearly evident. The cooling rate in the upper troposphere and the mid-lower stratosphere was much more intensive than the warming rate in the mid-lower troposphere; Annual temperature cycle suggests that the peak temperature shifts from July in the troposphere to February in the mid-lower stratosphere, indicating the necessity of seasonal trend analysis. There were apparent seasonal differences in the upper-air temperature change, the cooling in the upper troposphere and mid-lower stratosphere in autumn and winter were larger than that in spring and summer, whereas the warming in the mid-lower troposphere was more pronounced during the spring and summer; Abrupt change points of upper-air temperature at three layers all occurred around the early 1990s, which were later than that of the hemisphere temperature, but earlier than that of the corresponding surface temperature; Surface temperature exhibited a significant correlation with mid-lower troposphere temperature, but a remarkable negative correlation with upper troposphere, the mid-lower stratosphere temperatures. Overall, the correlation between surface and mid-lower troposphere temperatures was the highest, followed by the mid-lower stratosphere and upper troposphere temperatures. Temperature changes of mid-lower troposphere and surface exhibited some differences in different periods and seasons, both of them presented warming trends during 1980-2013, while showed cooling trends during 1998-2013. Furthermore, the downward trend during 1998-2013 was more obvious in winter, which suggested that the winter cooling held a dominant position in the temperature descending of the mid-lower troposphere and surface in the last more than 10 years.

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    松花江流域季节性气象干旱特征及风险区划研究
    冯波,章光新,李峰平
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 466-474.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.019
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (722KB)

    利用松花江流域67个代表性气象站1960~2009年气象观测资料,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)为评价指标,计算松花江流域50 a中各季干旱指数,在此基础上分析了流域季节性气象干旱演变特征及规律,研究发现,松花江流域气象干旱呈现出明显的空间分带性和季节分带性。从地域变化来看,流域干旱区主要分布在东北、西南部;从季度变化来看,春旱和夏旱是流域气象干旱的主要类型,夏季干旱最严重,春季次之。建立评价指标体系实现了基于GIS技术的气象干旱风险区划,针对不同风险区提出相应的抗旱措施,为流域有效应对干旱灾害提供依据。


    In recent years, seasonal droughts occurred frequently in Songhua River Basin. Serious meteorological drought led to many adverse effects on agricultural production and ecological environment. The analysis on the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of meteorological drought can provide theoretical basis for countermeasures to reduce drought disaster. Based on observed meteorological data from 67 significant meteorological stations on the Songhua River Basin for the period from 1960 to 2009, the meteorological drought characteristics were studied using standardized precipitation index (SPI). Seasonal SPI during 50 years were determined in Songhua River Basin, based on which evolution characteristics and occurrence regularity of meteorological drought were analyzed in seasons. The variance of SPI in different seasons showed that the amplitude of drought variation in summer was maximum, which of autumn was the second. From the long-term view, the trend of spring drought decreased in Songhua River Basin, and the trend of summer drought and autumn drought increased, while basically no change in winter. During the period from 1960s to 1970s, spring drought and summer drought occurred frequently. In 1980s, drought situation was normal. However, after 1990s, summer drought and autumn drought increased obviously. Winter drought did not have great changes during the whole period. Influences of meteorological drought on basin irrigation were analyzed combined with GIS technology to provide a reasonable basis for combating drought. The results showed that meteorological drought of Songhua River Basin presented obvious spatial and seasonal zoning. By the view of geographical changing, regions influenced by drought mainly distributed in the northeastern and southwestern Songhua River Basin. By the view of seasonal changing, drought in spring and summer was the common types of drought. Summer drought was the most serious, and spring drought was the second. Spring drought was the most serious in the west of Jilin Province (eg. Baicheng City and Songyuan City). Summer drought was serious in the southeastern (eg. Mudanjiang City and Jilin City). The distribution of autumn drought was uniform in the studying area. Winter drought only occurred in partial region (eg. Baicheng City). When responding to drought, risk management model should be adopted to avoid the drought risk and close attention should be paid on meteorological drought monitoring.

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    1933~2012年无定河径流突变与周期特征诊断
    张健,李同昇,张俊辉,徐象平
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (3): 475-480.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.020
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (513KB)

    选取黄河中游区实施水土保持最早的一级支流无定河流域,利用滑动-T、曼-肯德尔和山本等3种突变检测方法相互验证,确定了在受人类活动显著影响下,径流的突变年份为1972年,自此径流平均减少3.55×108m3;基于径流突变前降水与径流的显著相关性,并借助地统计克里格空间插值法,重建1933~2012年无定河流域出口控制水位站天然径流变化序列。采用小波分析法诊断天然径流序列的周期变化,结果显示:天然年径流存在6个不同时间尺度的“丰-枯”演变特征,其平均周期分别对应着35.5、22.2、16.8、12.2、9.3和3.3 a。


    River is the path of water current on the land surface that collection and transmission, and the hydrological response of a catchment and hydrological processes which represents the global changes of the response of the earth′s surface. It is of great importance to study the runoff evolvement process. Changing rules and the influence factors in the Yellow River and would enhance sustainable development of social economy and effectively protect our environment under the reasonable utilization of river basin water resources. If we want to identify the ways of response of runoff to climate change in semi-arid region in northwest of China, the study should be first based on the grasp of the long period evolvement rules of runoff. Based on the observed annual runoff data of the Wudinghe River during 1945-2012, the characteristic of the abrupt change had been diagnosed by employing the methods of Moving t-test technique and Mann-Kendall and Yamamoto. The analysis showed that the annual runoff of the Wudinghe River changed abruptly in 1972, in the year since, the decrease of the runoff is about 3.55×108m3 on average. Precipitation decrease about 6.28% but runoff decrease about 26.62% on average after the abrupt change of the Wudinghe River runoff during 1933-2012. Although precipitation was the primary factor to affect surface water resource, precipitation was not the main reason for runoff decrease compared with human activities. Then reconstruct the sequence of natural runoff of the Wudinghe River during 1933-2012 according to the significant correlation between precipitation and runoff before 1972. Morlet complex wavelet function was used to transform the sequence of runoff of Baijiachuan hydrologic stationin of the Wudinghe River during 1933-2012. According to wavelet to analyze the periodic characteristics of the natural annual runoff, the results showed that the average period of annual runoff change have multi-scale periods such as 35.5 a, 22.2 a, 16.8 a, 12.2 a, 9.3 a and 3.3 a. It will be able to calculate the influence degree of the natural runoff change because of human activities such as building a reservoir, building a dam that silting land for developing farmland, etc.

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