The changes of household welfare in terms of income and consumption have an important and far-reaching impact on the general public’s attitudes towards CO2 emissions reduction policy, which will fundamentally determine whether the policy can be implemented within the context of global climate change. Given the situation, based on the method of social accounting matrix (SAM) equilibrium, this article presents a self-developed inter-province multi-regional dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model, then analyzes and simulates the impacts of different carbon abatement policies on household welfare in terms of income and consumption and regional economic development in China. The results show that remarkable differences in regional GDP growth rate affected by emissions mitigation policies exist in China, and regional economic convergence would be obviously damaged under natural growth scenario. More seriously, however, the gap between China’s regional economies is being widened again. In addition, although household income is less affected by the carbon abatement policy of manufacturing process control at the early stage of the simulation, the long-term impact of the policy should not be ignored. Thus, active initiatives are being taken to increase income of the residents, which should be paid more attention to. Furthermore, because the Chinese government has provided some targeted policies such as the Old-Age security policy and the Three-Agriculture policy (namely, agriculture, rural areas and farmers) to increase income of the retired urban residents and rural residents respectively, their welfare in terms of income have suffered less from the impact of CO2 emissions reduction policy. While income growth for urban labor is lack of the related support policy from the government, so next the key thing we are focused on is priority must be given to provide more income for them. Meanwhile according to the simulation results, considering the adverse impact of CO2 emissions reduction policy on absolute number of income growth for the household, though the policy is more conducive to reduce the gap between the rural and urban residents' income and between generations, the extent of the reduction is too early to be overly optimistic.
As an important indicator of the development level of the urbanization, urbanization efficiency has become an inevitable choice for the healthy and sustainable urban development. The key point is how to evaluate the efficiency of urbanization effectively and objectively. In this article, we first establish an evaluation index system of the urbanization comprehensive efficiency, and then we apply the data of the 31 provinces in China in 1999-2012 to measure and decompose, based on the DEA evaluation model with F?re-Primont index. This model can overcome the drawbacks of the traditional DEA model that cannot make trend analysis and distinguish the superiority-inferiority between decision units. Moreover, the driving factors of urbanization comprehensive efficiency are analyzed theoretically in this article, and the main driving factors of urbanization efficiency are analyzed and distinguished by using the Panel Data fixed effects model. The results indicate that the level of national average in 2012 was as much as 1.292 times to that of Beijing in 1999, and most areas were effective growth-oriented areas. High overall level of urbanization comprehensive efficiency in the most regions of China is the result of high growth of the mixing efficiency of and residual scale efficiency. The urbanization efficiency in Eastern, Central, Western and Northeastern regions of China shows a clear differentiation in views of the development trends. The results of the driving factor analysis show that the intrinsic force is the most powerful driving force, followed by market and exterior force, while the administrative force plays the opposite role. Therefore,this article presents that the advancement of urbanization efficiency needs to promote the harmonious development among population urbanization, land urbanization and economy urbanization.
Landscape perception is the result of the interaction between human and landscape. Viewshed analysis and visibility analysis are used for Landscape perception researches as important means. In this article, based on the existing landscape perception concepts and models, we try to establish a model named traffic line landscape perception degree model to solve the research and compute problems of the large-scale landscape perception degree on specific linear spatial units or areas. The model is actually the aggregate of single-point, multi-point and group scale traffic line landscape perception degree which is divided by the size and characteristics of the landscapes. And we build three formulas to validate the method of our model about landscape perception calculation. The approach is tested using a popular traffic line through the Zijingguan section of Great Wall in Hebei Province. Firstly, for quantitative calculation of the Zijingguan landscape perception near the highway and the railway line, the DEM data are used to calculate landscape viewshed analysis with some weighting factors such as resources value and status of remains. Aspect, distance and some others can also be weighting factors of a landscape relative to the observer. Then, according to the distribution of landscape perception along traffic line, the best sensing function sections and the best viewing positions of the single-point landscapes including enemy units, beacon towers, horse face, wall landscapes, various groups landscapes and integrated landscapes are divided accurately. Finally, we know that the continuity of highways perceived position is much stronger while the ones of the railways are relatively discrete, and the highway perception effect is better than that of railway perception. It is mainly attributed to the undulating terrain. The traffic line landscape perception degree model is particularly suitable for the analysis of large-scale landscapes, magnificent buildings and other landscape perception instead of delicate landscape in a close distance, and it can quantitatively calculate the distribution of landscapes along the traffic line and determine their linear distribution pattern. The raster images enable the planners or tourists to identify areas where the peak of emotional responses may occur in order to maximize viewing opportunities of beautiful landscapes and areas, or find potential locations to view landscape along traffic line. In this way, the railways, highways, rural roads, other ground transit routes and waterways can be used as non-specialized traveling space carriers in the fast viewing process of landscapes. This research represents the traffic line landscape perception degree model as a kind of extension of the tourism landscape planning and design methods, which can expand the tourism landscape planning and design from the inside tourism area to the outside. The model is also meaningful in the study of tourism landscape guiding design, and the researches of tourism culture transmission ways and efficiency.
利用DEA模型测算了2001~2012年长三角、京津冀及珠三角三大城市群土地利用效率,通过研究得出以下结论：① 长三角、京津冀和珠三角三大城市群的城市土地利用效率总体上均呈现下降的趋势,下降比例分别为6.06%、2.86%、24.34%,特别是珠三角城市群下降幅度最大,为长三角和京津冀的4倍和8.5倍,证实珠三角城市群城市土地利用效率下降的迅速性。② 京津冀城市群城市土地利用效率整体偏高,冗余量相对较少,降速明显低于长三角和珠三角两大城市群的城市土地利用效率。长三角、珠三角城市群的土地利用效率处于持续降低的状态。③ 三大城市群城市土地利用效率的规模报酬有效性的城市比例下降幅度分别为10.53%、10%、33.34%,珠三角下降幅度最大,为长三角和京津冀的3.17倍和3.33倍;④ 长三角城市群土地利用效率差异较大,京津冀城市群、珠三角城市群“中心-外围”现象明显。
This article uses DEA model to calculate the land use efficiency of urban agglomerations in the Changjiang River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Zhujiang River Delta. The results show: 1) The land use efficiency of urban agglomerations showed a downward trend in 2001-2012, decline rates being 6.06%, 2.86%, 24.34% in the Changjiang River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Zhujiang River Delta, respectively, and that of the Zhujiang River Delta urban agglomeration was the largest; 2) The overall efficiency of urban land use of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei was high and had a relatively small amount of redundancy, deceleration of that was significantly lower than those of the two deltas. The latter two continued to be in the reduce state; 3) The validity of returns to scale of land use efficiency showed a downward trend, decline rates being 10.53%, 10% and 33.34% in the urban agglomerations of the Changjiang River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Zhujiang River Delta. 4) The "Center-Periphery" phenomenon was evident in the three urban agglomerations.
Taking the Jilin Province as a study case, this article used the methods of coupling coordination degree model, exploratory spatial analysis and obstacle degree model to study the spatio-temporal pattern and obstacle indicators of four modernizations coordination development at the level of county in 2003 and 2012. Conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) The level of four modernizations is volatile and non-equilibrium, and the level of agricultural modernization shows an increasing trend. The spatial difference of industrialization and urbanization keeps reducing, and the spatial difference of informatization and agricultural modernization increases gradually. 2) The coupling degree of four modernizations development in Jilin Province is at low level on the whole, and the coupling degree in urban agglomeration of central Jilin and eastern border area is high relatively, the coupling degree in western inland is low. The coordinating degree mainly shows the serious disorder, moderate disorder and mild discord, and the sync phenomenon is obvious. 3) The similar region of four modernizations coordination changes from discrete distributions to weak agglomeration state. The hotspots of four modernization coordination are centralized in the regions of Changchun-Jilin, Yanbian and Tonghua. The hotspot counties have been decreased remarkably, and coldspot counties are increased gradually. 4) The output value proportion of tertiary industry, per capita GDP, the proportion of non-agricultural population, number of medical beds per ten thousand people and total turnover of postal and telecommunication services per capita were verified to be the first five obstacle indicators for further improvement of four modernizations coordination in 2003, and the output value proportion of secondary industry, the employment proportion of secondary industry, per capita gross industrial output value, average agricultural production per counties and average agricultural production per employee were verified to be the first five obstacle indicators for further improvement of four modernizations coordination in 2012. The order of sub-system obstacle degree is urbanization> agricultural modernization> industrialization> informatization. Finally, 3 driving forces of four modernizations coordination in Jilin Province have been drawn: regional policies, economic and industrial foundation, physical geography condition, and we put forward the main pathway to improve the level of four modernizations coordination. Generally speaking, the four modernizations coordination is complicate system engineering, and promoting the new urbanization development is also very long at the same time, therefore, some efforts should be made in the choices of index, methods and scale in the future.
以洞庭湖生态经济区水资源环境与社会经济系统为研究对象,引入灰色关联度算法测度耦合状况,结合GM(1,1) 模型预测演化趋势,并进行仿真模拟。研究表明：2004~2013年生态经济区水资源环境优于社会经济发展状况,但水资源条件对快速增长的社会经济发展产生的约束作用较为明显,水资源与生态环境危机正在进入潜伏期;10 a间系统耦合度较高,处于较为协调发展的磨合耦合阶段,耦合度呈现大幅攀升后回落趋势,进一步对2014~2023年状况预测证实经济发展对水资源环境呈现越来越显著的胁迫效应。研究表明,应着力提高水资源利用效益,缓解水资源经济系统矛盾,实现社会经济和水资源环境的协调发展。
Water resource is the vital foundation of the national economy and social development, lake ecological economic system is an essential water resource & environment and socio-economic coupling system based on water-related activities. Reducing the disorders and ensuring the coordination and common development of system can be solved effectively by the analysis of the coupling relationship between water resource & environment and socio-economy. The coupling degree and the evolutionary trend of water resource & environment and socio-economic system of the Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone are calculated and simulated by the gray correlation algorithm together with the GM(1,1) model. The results demonstrate that 1) water resource & environment was superior to socio-economic development of the ecological economic zone in 2004-2013; 2) The role of water resource constraints on the rapid growth of socio-economic development is obvious, the coordinated development of the entire system is about to enter the threshold stage, water resource and ecological crisis are entering the latency period; 3) The further simulating results in 2014-2023 show that the socio-economic development in the ecological economic zone is beyond what the water resource can sustain. The sustainable development is in the presence of bottleneck of water resource; while the coupling degree is in the range of 0.578 to 0.641, the system is in the period of running-in, and the coordinated development of system can be achieved. The forecasting coupling degree in 2014-2023 is in the range of 0.500 to 0.800 that means it is a long running-in stage. The simulating coupling degree trend curve of the entire ecological economic zone, Changde District and Yueyang District appear to fall down after rapid rise in the period of 2004 to 2013, which shows that the rich water resource & environment can support the rapid economic development and social progress. The downward trend started from 2010 shows the stress effects on the water resource & environment by the rapid economic development in the previous stage. The further simulating coupling degree data of 2014 to 2023 show that most of the ecological economic zones continue the trend of decline in the coupling degree curve until the period of 2017 to 2018, which shows the stress and constraints affects on the socio-economic development by the water resource. The following slight rebound in curve is to do with the better water resource caused by the more investment and policy emphasized on water resource since the more developed economies. The above research demonstrates that ecology and environment issues should be drawn attention from the different perspectives, such as policy & regulations, economic development, aquatic ecosystem recovery. A variety of measures should be taken accordingly to increase the investment in environmental protection, accelerate the optimization of industry structure and technology innovation, and reconcile the conflicts between water resource & environment and socio-economic system. Meanwhile, the research suggests that it should focus on composite resource efficiency of allocating economic, community, energy and environment resources rather than pure economic waste. And it is significant to collaboratively push forward the development of ecology-friendly economic integration and economic ecology integration, reduce the water consumption, enhance the water use efficiency, and alleviate the conflicts between aquatic ecosystem and economy. As a result, these measures provide feasible solutions to promote coordinated development of aquatic resources environment and socio-economy in the Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone.
The coordinated development degree is based on the mutual dependence of the system and realizes the development of positive and harmonious development, reflecting the level of the system's coordination on the basis of the coordination of the situation. Tourism economic system and traffic system are two subsystems and there is a significant coupling between the two. Urban tourism economy and transportation system influence each other and promote each other. Based on the mechanism of mutual coordination development between tourism economy and transportation, by establishing the evaluation system of the coordinated development about tourism economy and transportation and employing coordinated development degree model, this article, taking Chizhou as an example, quantitatively measures its coordinated development degree about tourism economy and transportation. The outcome shows that the efficiency index of Chizhou’s tourism economy and transportation tends to rise and the tourism economy-transportation system of Chizhou City from 2002 to 2012 is in the process of continuous development of coupling and coordination; the coordinated development degree of tourism economy and transportation system has increased from 0 in 2002 to 0.678 in 2012, remaining in the primary coordinated development class. The trend of coordinated development about tourism economy- transportation system of Chizhou City is better. Promoting to the excellent coordinated development, it needs transportation system to play a better role in following: 1) promoting tourism economy, 2) gradually enhancing the development level of air and rail in Chizhou, to improve the level of tourism reception service, 3) strengthening the regional cooperation to promote international marketing strategy actively, 4) accelerating the transformation and upgrading of tourism for promoting the sustainable development of tourism, and 5) strengthening cooperation between the two major departments of tourism and transportation. Under the double opportunities that the construction of the industrial transfer demonstration zone of the cities along the river in Anhui Province and international cultural tourism demonstration area in the south of Anhui Province, which are the national strategy, the development of tourism economy in Chizhou should speed up the upgrading of tourism industry with the rapid development of tourism, and the traffic system should strengthen the cooperation of tourism development, and provide a more efficient and comfortable traffic environment for the tourism economy.
针对农户开发利用消落带耕地对三峡库区的环境影响,从意愿角度对重庆市涪陵区、丰都区247户农户进行实地调研,采用多项Logistic回归模型分析法,定量分析农户对生态休耕经济补偿需求的影响因素,为构建三峡库区环境保护经济补偿机制提供建议。研究结果表明：① 农户的经济补偿需求意愿存在较大差异;② 生态休耕比较效益、家庭人口数、家庭年人均纯收入、生态休耕意愿指数、经济补偿期望值对农户生态休耕经济补偿需求影响显著。研究结论：三峡库区消落带的受访农户对生态休耕经济补偿的需求意愿较强,构建适当的经济补偿机制满足该地区农户的补偿诉求势在必行。
There is mainly slope land in the Three Gorges Reservoir, accounting for 68.8% of the total cultivated area, in which it has exceeded 25% that the slope is more than 25°. So the fundamental contradiction is intense after the reservoir storage, that is too many people and less land. When the rural resettlement have to make a choice between environmental protection and economic income, most people will choose the latter. Since unreasonable land use easily causes soil erosion and non-point source pollution, it will affect the water the reservoir environment security. According to the environmental impact of cultivation in the water-level fluctuation zone of Three Gorges Reservoir area, we established MNL regression to quantitative analyze the impact factors on the demand for an economic compensation of eco-fallow in order to provide recommendations, which is based on spot investigation of 247 households’ willingness in Fuling district and Fengdu district, Chongqing city. The results indicate: 1) There exists comparatively large differences amongst the household willingness on economic compensation demands which is influenced by household aging, the low comparative profit and the nonfarm income; 2) The obvious influences factors on the economic compensation mechanism of eco-fallow include comparative benefit of eco-fallow, household population, annual household net income per capita, eco-fallow willingness index, expected value of economic compensation. It is conclude: most of surveyed households are relatively strong demand for economic compensation. From the origin, the main reason is that the immigration policy did not consider the future development needs and make compensation according to the market principle in the background of that time. Now many contradictions gradually exposed in practice, the land resource rapidly decrease after reservoir storage and the immigrants lose the original income channels which result in some of immigrants become the new poverty-stricken family. So it is necessary to establish appropriate economic compensation mechanism to meet the appeal. We give some policy enlightenment for government: 1) Economic compensation must carry out against priority crowd who major engaged in farming rather than one-size-fits-all kind of compensation mode; 2) The low comparative profit is one of the main factors affecting household, for this reason the government should explore the water-level fluctuation zone by in eco-friendly manner based on environment protection; 3) The increase of households’ income will reduce dependency on land in water-level fluctuation zone, so the government must make practical efforts to transform the resources and locational advantages into actual productivity, gradually set up industrial development system.
As a party of “Convention on Biological Diversity”, the Japanese government made national strategy on biodiversity and published the “Basic Law on Biodiversity” in order to strengthen biodiversity protection. In 2008, the DPSIR conceptual model was used by “Japanese Biodiversity Assessment Research Committee” to build up the comprehensive evaluation index system. The system is composed of 14 reason evaluation index and 16 state evaluation indexes, a total of 30 indicators. The committee used 104 data sets such as administrative statistics, land resources surveys, environment monitoring and scientific research data to appraise 50 years of the 20th century in Japan since the latter half of the national status of biodiversity loss and causes. The management and integrated features of Japanese comprehensive biodiversity assessment are very prominent. The evaluation method is to use the existing surveys and monitoring data (quantitative data), analyze the cause and effect relationship, get the trend conclusions, and put forward the corresponding countermeasures. It is a combination of qualitative and quantitative trend analysis method. The evaluation area is divided into forest, farmland, urban, inland waters, coastal and ocean, islands (off-islands), six large ecosystem types in total. We analyzed the loss of biodiversity caused by four major crises. We discussed the reference value for biodiversity assessment in China.
This article explores the environmental effect from the evolution of pig breeding industrial agglomeration. In Zhejiang Province, China, pig breeding industry has rapidly been running in a highly mass breeding mode for years instead of the traditional scattered farming mode. Along with the economic and social development to a certain stage, pig breeding pollution has thus become a type of new source of pollution, which is influenced mainly by the development of pig breeding industry and the constraint of cultivated land resource enslaved to the regional urbanization level. Some studies have shown that industrial agglomeration can produce corresponding environmental effect. But most of these studies laid more emphasis on confirming the causal relationship between industrial agglomeration and environmental pollution, without the theoretical analysis and induction so as to form a certain regularity and system. Especially on agricultural non-point source pollution, few of studies could hardly make a powerful explanation out of some profound understanding in the environment externality effect from livestock and poultry farming production. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to explore the environmental effect from the evolution of pig breeding industrial agglomeration, for indicating the direction of pig breeding pollution control policy in order to ensure the healthy and stable development of this industry in the long run. This article introduces “location entropy” to measure pig breeding pollution concentration, pig breeding industrial agglomeration, cultivated land resource gathering, and urbanization rate, using the relevant time series data from 1997 to 2012 in Jiaxing municipal district (Zhejiang Province, China) and Jiaxing region where the former is located. Then with a sample of Jiaxing municipal district, a model about the environmental effect from the evolution of pig breeding industrial agglomeration is built to reveal in theory the particularity and intrinsic regularity of the pollution from pig farming. There are three main findings. First, the inverted U-shaped curve between pig breeding pollution concentration and pig breeding industrial agglomeration, is essentially an evolutionary trajectory of environmental negative externality effect in process of production with its correction. Second, there exists a linear relationship of negative correlation between pig breeding pollution concentration and cultivated land resource gathering; for the later is influenced by urbanization rate, there is a linear relationship of negative correlation between cultivated land resource gathering and urbanization rate. Third, under pollution control policy, the curve with the improvement of pig breeding industrial agglomeration first tilts to the upper right and then bends down gradually; in cultivated land resource constraint, the curve moves up; when the reduction due to the bend-down is offset in turn covered by the increase due to the move-up for the pig breeding pollution concentration, pollution control policy is probably out of work. Therefore, pollution control policy should take the change of cultivated land resources caused by urbanization into account.
Culture is not only a specific product of the behavior, but also the constraint of the behavior. The object about the impact of culture on travel spatial behavior received sustained attention from tourism geographers. Based on the classification of Hofstede cultural dimensions, this article takes the sojourners as the research object to do the empirical research which used ArcGIS spatial analysis, independent samples T-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlation analysis and Centralize Index and other methods. The results show that the influence of the four cultural dimensions including PDI, UAI, IDV, MAS on tourist spatial behavior has a significant difference, such as “travel companions”, “type of transport to the city centre”, “mode of transport within the city centre”, “length of movement around the city”, “type of movement (planned vs. unplanned)”, “direction of movement (clockwise vs. anti-clockwise)”, “patterns of movement (single vs. multiple destination)”, “length of movement within the city attractions”. In particular, the influence on mid-gradational spatial behavior is greater than that on micro level, most notably on the aspects of “type of transport to the city centre”, “length of movement around the city” and “patterns of movement (single vs. multiple destination)”. The IDV cultural dimension has the biggest influence on travel spatial behavior of the sojourners, which has been proved to influence significantly on 6 aspects of the 8 spatial behavior characteristics. Secondly, the PDI cultural dimension includes the 4 mid-gradational spatial behavior characteristics and the only one micro spatial behavior characteristic; the UAI cultural dimension is also closely related to the 4 mid-gradational spatial behavior characteristics. However, the MAS cultural dimension has the minimal impact on spatial behavior characteristics, only remarkably on 3 aspects. In terms of spatial agglomeration and time concentration, the concentration index of high PDI, high UAI, low IDV and low MAS is higher, as well as the visiting time. This study depicts the map of sojourners space motion effectively, investigates the cultural factors which influence the sojourners tourist spatial behavior, preliminarily provides research of sojourners' travel behavior with an exploratory analysis besides sociodemographic variables. Research results can provide customized products and services to sojourners and tourists from different cultural backgrounds, at the same time, they can also be used in the tourist facilities spatial structure planning, such as the city internal traffic, shopping, entertainment, accommodation.
以当代历史和经济史著作为资料,建立与历朝财政盈亏状态相关词汇的语义分级标准,重建了中国自秦朝至清末（220 BC~1910 AD）10 a分辨率的财政等级序列,并分析其与气候变化的关系。结果表明,秦朝至清末的财政平衡大体经历了4个相对充裕阶段（220 BC~31 BC,441~760 AD,961~1210 AD,1381~1910 AD）和3个相对匮乏阶段（30 BC~440 AD,761~960 AD,1211~1380 AD）。财政危机在寒冷-干旱的气候背景下爆发的可能性最大。财政平衡与温度和降水变化均成正相关,财政平衡的趋势性变化受长期的温度和降水变化影响较为明显。但受多因素的复杂反馈环节影响,两者在某些时段呈现反相位关系。
Based on the 1 101 records of fiscal balance (surplus or deficiency) in ancient China extracted from 24 books dealing with the fiscal/economic history of China, this study first established the standards of fiscal level differentiation according to wording semantics. Then, a 2130-year-long (220 BC-1910 AD) fiscal sequence with decadal resolution is reconstructed to express the phase transition of fiscal balance in China. The relationship between fiscal fluctuation and climate change is further analyzed. It is found that fiscal fluctuations during 220 BC-1910 AD in China were featured cyclical changes. Four stages of relative fiscal surplus mainly distributed temporally during 220 BC-31 BC, 441-760 AD, 961-1210 AD, and 1381-1910 AD, respectively. Three stages of relative fiscal deficiency mainly were 30 BC-440 AD, 761-960 AD, and 1211-1380 AD, respectively. Fiscal balances during warmer/wetter periods were slightly better than that during colder/drier periods. Particularly, the probability for fiscal crisis increased significantly in a cold and dry climate. Correlation analysis shows that fiscal balance was positively and significantly correlated with both changes of temperature and precipitation. The long-run trends of fiscal fluctuation were strongly influenced by long-run changes of temperature as well as precipitation. Cold climate would affect agricultural production and incidence of wars and social unrests, which directly or indirectly influenced the imperial fiscal revenues and expenditures. However, there remained many other factors that would complicate the relationship between climate change and fiscal fluctuation. The results of moving correlation analysis indicated that climate-finance association obviously displayed an anti-phase pattern for certain periods. It is worth further explorations for the complex feedback mechanism among climate, finance and other multiple factors in different temporal and spatial scales.
以天山中段为研究区,以降水与高程（DEM）、植被指数（NDVI）、坡向（Aspect）、经纬度与之间存在的相关关系为基础,构建了TRMM卫星3B43降水数据与NDVI、DEM和坡向等相关因子的回归模型,对TsHARP统计降尺度算法引入DEM和局部Moran指数进行改进,得到2001~2006年研究区的250 m高分辨率降水空间分布数据。最后利用研究区气象站点降水数据对降尺度结果进行验证,得出降尺度的结果和实测值的误差明显小于原始降水数据和实测值的误差,年均降水最大改善程度是70 mm,因此构建的降尺度方法是合理可行的,可用于山区降水数据的降尺度研究。
Precipitation is an essential input parameter for model research of hydrology, ecology and climate, and accurate precipitation data with high resolution are very important for the understanding of regional climate change. At present, TRMM satellite with resolution of 0.25 degree can provide global precipitation data, but the application of the lower resolution of TRMM 3B43 precipitation data are restricted in hydrological or climatic model of watershed scale. In mountain, precipitation data cannot be obtained by simple interpolation or extrapolation, so it is necessary to apply downscaling methodology to improve the resolution of TRMM precipitation data. In this article, the middle part of Tianshan Mountains is study area, based on the correlation of annual precipitation with the regression model between the TRMM 3B43 annual accumulated precipitation data and such factors as DEM, NDVI, aspect, longitude and latitude is built. TsHARP is a statistical downscaling algorithm, which is improved by introducing DEM and local Moran’s I index of NDVI, and the precipitation data with 250 m resolution in the studied area during 2001-2006 are obtained. From the results, it can be known that the internal precipitation in study area affected by the altitude is serious. The amount of precipitation in the western Tianshan Mountains is more than the eastern and the amount of precipitation in the northern slope is more than the southern slope. This conclusion and the previous research on the precipitation are consistent. The downscaled results are validated with observed precipitation data from meteorological stations in the studied area. It is obtained that 1) the errors of downscaled results are substantially less than those of original TRMM precipitation data, and the maximal improved value of annual average precipitation is 70mm; 2) the spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation in the middle section of Tianshan Mountain can be depicted in detail by downscaled results; 3) the correlation coefficient (R2) for TRMM 3B43 accumulated precipitation data and observed precipitation data is 0.618, while the one for downscaled results and observed precipitation data is 0.713. So the downscaling methodology built in this article is feasible, in a certain extent, which can provide technical support for the research of rigion with high altitude where human beings cannot monitor the precipitation area, and can provide spatial distribution of precipitation with detailed description of the results in mountains.
In the loess gullies, a series of key features points set play important roles such as central control and calibration for its Morphology and development. For the gully feature points set, systematically studying the scientific meaning, building the structural integrated data model, and studying the loess gully landform’s spatial differentiation of evolutionary tracks and development by using the data model have important scientific significance and practical application value. So, the concept meaning of loess gully feature points cluster is presented and analyzed. Loess gully feature points cluster is a points’ organic whole which plays a decisive role (such as gully head point, break point, et al.) or Calibration role of the terrain (such as gully node point, runoff source point, et al.) in a loess watershed. Based on DEM data, the gully feature points of a typical completed watershed in the loess landform are extracted. Using object-oriented modeling ideas, an unstructured file storage mode of the loess gully points cluster is researched and created. The data model can effectively describe a performance points cluster topology and spatial information. The loess gully points cluster model of test area is achieved through programming. A case study as the feature points retrospective sought, the processing efficiency is higher by comparing .shp data mode. The research results show that: the loess gully feature points cluster retains the key character of loess gully, and especially has obvious advantage on expressing the morphological structure characters. The points cluster space model uses the tree and non storage structure, so its structure is clear and its description information storage is simple. At the same time, the points cluster model application has higher efficiency in the valley spatial structure analysis.
以位于陕北黄土丘陵区的羊圈沟流域为重点研究区,针对不同坡面类型（坡长、坡形、坡度）和植被组合进行野外土壤采样,利用137Cs元素示踪方法评估坡面的土壤侵蚀效应。研究发现：① 坡面形态对土壤侵蚀具有重要影响。自坡顶至坡脚,“直-凹”组合的坡型一般具有相对较低的土壤侵蚀模数,整体上起到“汇”的作用;但“凹-直/凸”组合的坡型具有相对较高的土壤侵蚀模数,在土壤侵蚀方面起到“源”的作用;其他坡型,如直坡、凸坡、“直-凸”和复杂性坡型的土壤侵蚀模数介于两者之间。② 坡面不同植被空间配置对土壤侵蚀的影响具有明显差异。研究发现,坡面植被组合（自坡顶至坡脚）为荒草地-果园、有林地-其他植被类型组合和荒草地-其他植被类型的坡面具有相对较低的土壤侵蚀模数,起到了一定“汇”的功能,但人为干扰较为强烈的景观坡面（无水土保持措施）具有相对较高的土壤侵蚀模数,整体上表现为土壤侵蚀的“源”区。
Land use/land cover and slope configuration are important factors affecting soil erosion in the gully and hilly area of the Loess Plateau. However, most work conducted in China against soil erosion in the loess plateau mainly focused on vegetation restoration, and few of them is concerned with the influences of slope configuration and vegetation combination along the slope transacts. The combination of the slope forms and vegetation patterns in the hill-slopes may give rise to different results to the soil erosion process, to be a source or a sink. It is, to great extent, determined by the slope configuration, the position of vegetation on the hill slope, as well as their combination. In this study, the effects of slope configuration and vegetation pattern on soil erosion in the loess hill-slope were explored by using 137Cs isotope method and extensively field sampling in Yangquangou catchment of the Northern Shaanxi Province. In total, 118 sampling sites in 25 slope profiles are selected, and these slopes are classified into 6 types according to the configuration and 8 groups based on the vegetation patterns. The results show that: 1) Slope configuration will have significant impacts on soil erosion. In general, the slope configuration with straight form in the upper hill-slope and concave form in the lower hill-slope may have the lowest soil erosion modus, which will become a sink in term of soil erosion as a whole. However, the slope configuration with concave form in the upper hill-slope and straight/convex form in the lower hill-slope has the highest soil erosion modus. This slope may function as a source in term of soil erosion. The soil erosion effects of the other slope configurations fall in between the above two slope configurations. 2) Much difference exists on soil erosion regarding to different vegetation patterns on the loess hill-slope. It was found that the loess hill-slope with wild grassland or woodland in the upper hill-slope and orchard or other vegetation types in the lower hill-slope may have the lowest erosion modus, which plays as a sink in terms of soil erosion from the whole slope. However, the slope with strong human disturbance, for example the sloping farmland, will have the highest soil erosion modus, which plays as the source of soil erosion as a whole. 3) For controlling soil erosion, planting mature forests and grasses in the upper and middle position of loess hill-slope may remarkably reduce the overall soil erosion and sediment yields in the entire watershed. The results are valuable for land-use pattern optimization in the loess hill-slope by identifying the potential risky area of soil erosion in both slope configurations and vegetation patterns. And also, it is helpful for sustainable land use planning and ecosystem management at catchment in the loess plateau.
分析长江南京-镇江河段3个现代河漫滩沉积孔上部100 cm的粒度特征,探讨宁镇河段现代河漫滩的沉积环境。结果表明：GB孔、ZR孔和ZH孔沉积水动力较小,沉积物颗粒较细,均以粉砂为主; ZR孔的砂含量最多、沉积粒径最大、粒径和砂含量由底层向表层增加;ZH孔分选系数呈明显的阶段性特征。研究认为：河流比降、河势、分汊河床演变以及滩面植被是影响宁镇河段河漫滩粒度特征的重要因素。
River floodplains are constructional features of the fluvial landscape, and the overbank deposition on floodplain represent the geomorphological and hydrological conditions of a certain river. This article analyzed grain-size characteristics of three 100 centimeters long overbank cores sampled at Nanjing-Zhenjiang Reach in the downstream of the Changjiang River and its environment implication. The results indicate that the grain size results of overbank cores are not only controlled by the floods but also genesisly related to sedimentary environment. Both the floods intensity and the depositional environment of the overbank should be considered during the research of the overbank sediments feature and its influence factors. Along the Nanjing-Zhenjiang Reach, the grain size analysis of the three cores indicated the hydrodynamics on the overbank during the floods was weak and the whole cores were mainly composed of the fine sediments. The relatively stable part of the sediments was clay, varying between 11.43%-17.65%. Among the three cores, the ZR Core was located at the highest depositional hydrodynamics condition, the coarser grain size was obvious and the highest sand content was 66.73%. The vertical distributions of the grain size parameters of the GB Core were varied in the same way, and it was also the same in the ZR Core, furthermore, the sand contents increased upward in the ZR Core. The sorting of the ZH core had two obvious stages, the upper part with the much better sorting than the lower part of the core, which was different from the vertical distributions of the other parameters. Along the Nanjing-Zhenjiang Reach, the outcrop of the overbank sediments was composed of the thin layers of fine and coarser silts, corresponding with the alternation of weak and strong hydrodynamics during the flooding on the overbank. The obvious fine sand layers of the outcrop indicated the strongest period of flooding. The other factors influenced the grain size features included the following factors: the river channel gradient, river channel regimes, the evolution of the braided river and the vegetation conditions on the overbanks. As Nanjing-Zhenjiang Reach is located in the downstream of the Changjiang River with a small channel gradient, the water velocity on the overbank is slow resulting in the fine overbank sediments mostly composed of silts. The ZR Core is located at the junction of two channels where it is scoured. During the flooding time the hydrodynamics was strong on the sampling site and the deposition were composed of coarser sand, or sandy silts. The ZH Core is located in the downstream of the approach channel of the Zhenjiang Port. As the approach channel diverting the water, the runoff of the ZH Core is decreased, thus the depositional hydrodynamic is weak corresponding with the fine deposits. The sand contents increase upward in the ZR Core with the evolution of the braided river, while the grain size composition of ZH Core is little influenced for it is located in the downstream right bank 4 km from the braided river. In addition, as located at a stable straight reach, the grain size composition of the GB Core is stable. The ZH Core site is surrounded by the reed plant expanding rapidly in the past decade. In front of the reed, the deposition is quick trapped the coarser and fine sediments and in the central part of the reed covered overbank the deposition is mainly composed of fine sediments. So the variation of the sorting parameter of the ZH Core indicated the changes of the reed cover evolution in the past decade. Further more, thin-bedded strata is developed in the overbank located in the estuary of Changjiang River. During flood deposit research, the sampling interval should be designed in accordance with the deposit thickness of the thin bed.
基于上海气象站历史风速观测资料,采用极值I型和皮尔逊III型分布估算了上海市不同重现期最大风速的时间变化以及各区（县）不同重现期最大和极大风速的空间分布。结果表明,1901~2011年,上海市10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速分别为21.0、24.9、26.7和29.2 m/s。1974~2011年期间,上海各区（县）10 m高度10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速都是以南部沿海地区南汇或金山最大,分别为19.0、21.4、22.6和24.1 m/s;各重现期极大风速也是以南汇或金山最大,分别为32.3、36.4、38.4和41.0 m/s。中心城区各重现期的最大和极大风速都最小。
Strong wind is defined as the instantaneous wind speed (also called maximum wind speed) at or above 17.0 m/s in meteorology. Strong wind is a disastrous weather phenomenon, it often causes agricultural disaster, house and wall destroyed and casualties and property losses. Therefore, it is quite useful and necessary to understand the characteristics of strong wind, and their impacts for the purpose of development of social economy and resource environment protection. Based on the historical wind speed observation data from 11 stations in Shanghai, the temporal changes of maximum wind speed for different recurrence intervals in urban areas of Shanghai during 1901-2011 and the spatial distributions of maximum wind speed for different recurrence intervals in suburbs and exurbs of Shanghai during 1974-2011 were estimated in this paper with extreme value type I distribution (EV-I) and Pearson type III distribution (P-III). Furthermore, the extreme wind speeds with different recurrence intervals were also estimated in each county of Shanghai during 1974-2011 based on the maximum wind speeds with different recurrence intervals estimated by P-III distribution and a gustiness factor of 1.7. The results indicate that the maximum wind speeds with a recurrence interval of 10, 30, 50 and 100 years are 21.0, 24.9, 26.7 and 29.2 m/s respectively with the estimation of extreme value type I distribution, and they are 20.9, 24.4, 26.0 and 28.0 m/s respectively with the estimation of P-III distribution in Shanghai during 1901-2011. In comparison, the fitting precision of extreme value type I distribution is better than that of P-III distribution in urban areas of Shanghai during 1901-2011. Under the impacts of regional rapid urbanization and the reduced intensity of cold waves and the decreased number (and decreased intensity) of land-falling typhoons caused by global climate change, the maximum wind speed has decreased by approximately 0.8 m/s per decade in Shanghai during 1901-2011. During 1974-2011, the maximum wind speed with a recurrence interval of 10 years is the greatest in Jinshan, and the maximum wind speeds with a recurrence interval of 30, 50 and 100 years are the greatest in Nanhui or Pudong. For each county, the fitting precision of P-III distribution is better than that of extreme value type I distribution during 1974-2011. The maximum wind speeds with a recurrence interval of 10, 30, 50 and 100 years are 19.0, 21.4, 22.6 and 24.1 m/s respectively at a height of 10 m with the estimation of P-III distribution. The extreme wind speed with a recurrence intervals of 10 is the greatest in Jinshan, and the extreme wind speeds with a recurrence interval of 30, 50 and 100 years are the greatest in Nanhui. The extreme wind speeds with a recurrence interval of 10, 30, 50 and 100 years are 32.3, 36.4, 38.4 and 41.0 m/s respectively at a height of 10 m. Overall, the maximum wind speed and extreme wind speeds for different recurrence intervals are the least in urban areas, and they are the greatest in the southern coastal areas of Shanghai.
In order to investigate the sources, distribution characters, hazardous risks and the chemical fractions of heavy metals in the soil of farmland of Ebinur Basin which is under the rapid economy development, this article collected soils samples, and tested the total contents and chemical forms of 8 heavy metals including As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn. Then we used multiple analysis methods, combined with the background values of China and Xinjiang, to analyze the values. The results show that: 1) The ranges of heavy metals As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn in all the samples were lower than those of the National Soil Quality Standards (2nd)(GB15618-1995), but the mean values were all higher than the background values of Xinjiang. 2) Multivariate statistical analysis shows that 8 heavy metals can be classified into two principal components, among which PC1 (Cd, Pb, Hg, and Zn) was mainly influenced by the anthropogenic pollution, and PC2 (Cu, Ni, Cr, and As) was mainly influenced by the natural geological background. 3) Geo-statistical analysis shows that the high assessment risk regions of Cd, Hg, Pb, and Zn mainly distributed in the central and northern parts of the research area close to the townships and traffic routes. They all showed distribution characters with dot and facial shape, and they were mainly influenced by the strong human activities in these regions. While the high assessment risk regions of As, Cr, Cu, and Ni mainly distributed in the southern and the surrounding of the research area close to the desert and mountain, and they were mainly influenced by the relatively high natural geological background of this area. 4) Chemical fraction analysis shows that the main fractions of heavy metals As, Cr, and Ni were in residue states, but there were also low proportions of other states. The biological validity analysis shows that in the farmland of Ebinur Lake Basin, the biotoxicity of heavy metal Cb was the maximum, followed by Pb and Hg, and the biotoxicity of As was the minimum.