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  • 地理科学
      2016年, 第36卷, 第2期 刊出日期:2016-02-20 上一期    下一期
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    研究论文
    中国大城市拆迁安置居民补偿方式与受益率测度 ——以南京为例
    孙东琪,张京祥,陈浩,胡毅
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 161-169.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.001
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1408KB)

    拆迁安置补偿是城市内城改造与扩张过程中涉及拆迁居民利益的核心问题,拆迁安置家庭多个特征因影响补偿方式和受益率。针对补偿方式不同与受益率不同,分别采用二项逻辑回归与多元线性回归模型,对南京市4个安置区的349户拆迁安置居民家庭进行了实证分析,结果表明:① 对于实物补偿和货币补偿,城中村拆迁安置居民家庭和夫妻双方职业均为“无业”的家庭更容易获得实物补偿。② 单从经济角度来讲,城中村拆迁安置家庭成为拆迁安置家庭中的最大受益者,7人及以上的大家庭、高学历家庭也是货币补偿中的受益者。但其受益并非是由市场化的结果造成,而是市场作用与计划经济旧有制度的共同使然。因此,建立公平合理的补偿机制是解决问题的关键。


    Displaced compensation is the main point of displaced households’ benefits in inner-city restructuring and urban expansion. Its compensation approaches and benefits rate are influenced by many factors. This article uses 349 displaced residential surveys conducted in 4 resettlement areas in Nanjing to examine the compensation. 1) Examining compensation approaches by using binary logistic regression. In China, there are two approaches: in-kind compensation and monetary compensation. The result shows that displaced households from urban village and households with the couple are both unemployed are more likely to get in-kind compensation. Because of the large size of their displaced housing area in urban village, the monetary expenses are too high to the local government. And the resettlement housing is founded by the central government and municipal government subsidies, not by the local government alone, therefore, the local government are more likely to offer in-kind compensation for displaced households from urban village. 2) Examining the benefits rate of displaced households who get monetary compensation. The results show that: households from urban village have the highest benefits rate, because before displacement they could get more income from renting their housing, the local government have to give more to persuade them to leave. And “more than 7 members’ large household size” and “high education level” have significant positive contribution to benefits rate. For the large size households, the local government could consider their actual situation to give more benefits. And for the high education households, they know more law and policies to negotiate with the local government to get more. But the household with stated-work unit family member get less benefit rate. The results of this analysis could have several explanations. One is that residents who held a position in a work unit are usually better off than farmers. They are able to accept a lower discount than farmers, and may even purchase market housing. Another explanation is that since work units are supported by corresponding ministries of the central government, or have to maintain good relationships with the local government, in some demolition projects the local government coordinates with work units to make sure that employees are forced to move or to accept and sign the compensation contracts as soon as possible which make them loss the negotiation chance. We conclude that the benefit is not the result of market-oriented, but the product of the market and the old system of planned economy. Because in the process of compensation, the local government still use some the planned economy period approaches, such as incomplete monetization, set the standard ceiling; consider the households actual situation (whether they are low-income), etc.. Market led by the demolition and land transfer, in the resettlement compensation is still the implementation of non-market approach. Therefore, the establishment of fair and reasonable compensation mechanism is the key solution.

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    中国村庄空间分布特征及空间优化重组解析
    杨忍,刘彦随,龙花楼,王洋,张怡筠
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 170-179.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.002
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1345KB)

    以中国电子地图数据和分县经济社会数据为基础,利用最邻近距离R指数模型分析中国村庄分布模式格局,结合地理探测器的研究方法对影响因素进行探测识别,同时解析乡村空间优化重组背景和模式。研究得出以下主要结论:① 中国村庄空间分布呈现出聚集、随机、离散均匀分布的并存空间分布模式,村庄空间分布模式区域差异特征显著。东南半壁的村庄分布密度远大于西北半壁,不同地域类型区的村庄空间分布模式表现出各异的特征。平原地区的村庄空间分布密集,空间分布模式以随机、分散为主,村庄之间邻近距离较近。高寒山区、沙漠边缘地带,村庄空间分布密度极低,村庄之间邻近距离偏大,村庄空间分布相对聚集。丘陵、山地交汇过渡地带,村庄空间分布密度较大,空间分布模式偏向随机分布。② 村庄分布受到传统因素和经济发展双重因子的影响,传统影响因素依然在发挥作用,但经济发展的影响愈加明显。不同区域地形、水资源条件对村庄分布影响显著。交通条件、产业非农化、经济发展、农业现代化发展对乡村生活、生产空间的空间形态和分布模式产生剧烈影响。③ 伴随乡村各种生产要素非农化流失,村庄空间亟待优化重组,优化以镇区为依托的中心村-基层村体系空间组织结构应为乡村物质空间优化重组有效选择。④ 在不同地域类型区域,村镇格局的空间优化重组形态可以采用放射均衡、放射非均衡、多核心均衡、走廊式布局模式及混合模式。


    This study focuses on the distribution characteristics, effect factors and optimized reconstructing analysis of rural settlement in China. Based on electronic map data in 2012 and socioeconomic data of counties in China, the spatial distribution pattern of rural settlement and effect factors have been examined using model of the average nearest neighbor distance and geographical detector method, while the background and mode for rural space optimization reconstruction were analyzed. Main results for this study are as follows: 1) the rural settlement spatial distribution mode consists of cluster, random and uniform discrete distributions in China, while the regional differences were significant. The density of rural settlements is greater in the southeastern region than in the northwest region with Hu Huanyong's population distribution line for the boundary in China. There were a variety of characteristics for the rural settlement distribution in different type of regions. The spatial distribution of rural settlement was intensive, and those spatial distribution modes were mainly random and disperse with a short average nearest neighbor distance in plain areas. On the other side, the density of rural settlement was low, and those spatial distribution modes were mainly cluster relatively with a long average nearest neighbor distance in highland and cold areas and fringes of the desert. In addition, the density of rural settlement was high, and those spatial distribution modes were mainly random in the intersected transition zone between hill and mountain. 2) The dual factors affect the rural settlement distribution from traditional and economy. Although the traditional factors still play a significance role, the influence of the economic developed more and more obviously. There were a large amount of factors attributing to impacting rural settlement distribution, the spatial form of production and life space, including natural topography and water resources natural conditions, etc. That also included traffic condition, industry, economic development level and agricultural modernization. 3) With factors of production non-agriculture in rural region, the rural space need be a reconstructing optimization. The priority selection is to rebuild village-town system for optimizing rural physical space. Theoretically, village-town system is a sort of hierarchical structure, consisting of central regional town, general agricultural town, central village and basic village. 4) The multiple modes will been made use of restructuring rural space in different geographical areas, including balance forms of radiation, radiation disequilibrium forms, multicore equilibrium forms and corridor layout pattern or mixed modes. From the system and the hierarchical logic level to deconstruct the rural space theory for optimization, a reasonable village-town system is rebuilt orderly, which will provide a scientific basis for urban and rural urbanization.

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    中国高等教育经费投入空间格局及形成机理研究
    游小珺,赵光龙,杜德斌,范斐
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 180-187.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.003
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (873KB)

    利用Cartogram专题地图分析1995~2011年中国省际高等教育经费支出空间分布差异的基础上,采用Wolfson极化指数与循环累积因果原理分析高等教育经费投入空间差异化的形成机理,得出结论:① 中国高等教育经费投入总体呈“东、中、西”阶梯状递减的非均衡空间格局,空间极化日益显著;生均教育经费虽然比较均衡,但仍呈“东西两大地带隆起而中部塌陷”的特征;部属院校教育经费非均衡性与地方院校相比更为突出。②中国高等教育经费投入区域差异是受国家政策主导,在人口分布、地理环境、经济发展水平及资金收益率等多因素的影响下形成的复杂循环累积效应所致。


    Higher education Investment is not only the basic protection of daily operation of higher education, but also promotes regional economic development and enhances the strength of national science and technology. On the basis of analyzing spatial distribution differences of expenditure on higher education in all provinces of China during 1995~2011 by Cartogram map, this paper used Wolfson Polarization Index and Circular Cumulative Causation model to study on the mechanism of spatial differentiation higher education investment. We came to the following conclusions:1) There are distributive laws of zonality that higher education investment reduces from east to west, with spatial non-equilibrium and spatial polarization being increasingly significant; funding per student is relatively equal, although it’s still higher in both East China and West China than in Middle China; the non-equilibrium in higher education funding of central subordinate university is more prominent than that of local subordinate university.2) Complex circular cumulative causation which was leaded by national policy and influenced by population density and level of economic development, investing differently in accordance with the return rate of capital, has formed the investment differentiation on higher education.

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    新型城镇化背景下中国城乡统筹的理论与实践问题
    陈肖飞,姚士谋,张落成
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 188-195.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.004
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (491KB)

    城乡统筹问题是当代中国社会经济发展的综合性课题,随着新型城镇化的提出,许多省市的城乡关系都面临复杂的困境,而新型城镇化与城乡统筹发展关系实践不仅是解决农业、农村、农民问题的重要途径,还是推动区域协调发展的强劲动力和扩大内需及促进产业升级的重要抓手。新型城镇化与城乡统筹具有内在的共同点,因此在新型城镇化背景下,分析两者在实践过程中共同存在的生态环境、人口流动、产业布局、城市空间利用以及土地制度等存在的问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。提出了 树立资源节约型的城乡统筹理念、确立健康城市化的城乡统筹方向、从区域空间角度认识城乡统筹问题、 着力解决城乡统筹的土地问题等观点,并指出了新型城镇化背景下城乡统筹主要优化方向:优化重点区域发展、优化空间布局形态、优化集群产业结构、优化发展美好环境、优化市场导向机制。


    Issue of urban-rural integration is a comprehensive subject, with the new urbanization proposed, urban-rural relations are facing a complex dilemma in many cities, so it is important to discuss the theory and practice of urban-rural integration in China under the new urbanization background. The practice of new urbanization and urban-rural integration development is not only an important way to solve the problems concerning agriculture, rural areas and farmers, or to promote a strong driving force for regional coordinated development and industrial upgrading. The article analyzes the ecological resources, migration, industrial layout and urban space, land system in the process of urban-rural integration and pointed out that we should confirm a resource-saving concept of urban-rural integration, establish a healthy urbanization direction of urban-rural integration, understand urban-rural integration from the perspective of regional space and solve the land system problems of urban-rural integration. At the same time, the article pointed out the optimization direction under the context of new urbanization:1) We should optimize the key areas development and exploit suburban land rationally; 2) We should optimize space layout and build diverse complementary pattern;3) We should optimize industrial structure of clusters and make better chain link between rural and urban industrial; 4) We should optimize a better environment and promote the urban transformation to eco-city; 5) We should optimize the market-oriented mechanism and guarantee the government regulation in line with the law.

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    中国工业废气排放的空间特征及其影响因素研究
    韩楠,于维洋
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 196-203.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.005
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (591KB)

    基于2000~2012年中国31个省(市、自治区)面板数据,运用探索性空间数据分析方法对中国工业废气排放的空间分布特征进行研究,结果显示中国各省域(不含港澳台)工业废气排放存在显著的空间自相关和空间集聚效应;总体呈现东部、西部地区集聚的空间分布特征,其中东部多为高-高集聚区、西部则多为低-低集聚区,并且高值集聚现象的显著性逐渐增强,显著区域呈持续扩张趋势。在此基础上,以STIRPAT模型为基础构建空间计量模型,分析经济发展、人口规模、产业结构、技术水平和国家政策等因素对工业废气排放量的影响。研究结果表明,中国各省域工业废气排放存在空间依赖作用和正的空间溢出效应;经济发展、产业结构与工业废气排放之间呈现显著的正相关关系;技术进步和国家政策对工业废气排放具有抑制作用,而人口增长对工业废气排放的影响并不显著。


    By taking the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2012 as the samples, this article explores the spatial distribution characteristics of industrial waste gas emission by applying the method of exploratory spatial data analysis including the global Moran’s I, Moran scatter plot and local indicators of spatial association. The results of Moran’s I statistics and Moran scatter plot show that, industrial waste gas emission of China’s provinces and cities (excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) exist significantly spatial autocorrelation and spatial agglomeration effect from 2000 to 2012. Meanwhile, in the light of LISA cluster map of China’s provincial industrial waste gas emission, as a whole the eastern and western regions of China mainly display the spatial agglomeration characteristics. The provinces and cities with HH(high-high) agglomeration pattern are basically concentrated in the eastern district, but the provinces and cities with LL(low-low) agglomeration effect are largely located in the west of China. Besides, from 2000 to 2012 the significance of high-high cluster is gradually strengthened and the significant regions are appearing an enhanced tendency with the time. By means of the analysis on spatial characteristics of Chinese provincial industrial waste gas emission, the spatial autocorrelation effect of industrial waste gas emission is confirmed and the spatial econometric model can be established to study the influencing factors of industrial waste gas emission in China. Based on the STIRPAT model, this article constructs a spatial econometric model to analyze the effect of economic development, population, industrial structure, scientific and technological progress and national policy to industrial waste gas emission in China. Through the study on principal influencing factors of China’s industrial waste gas emission, the experience support to reducing industrial waste gas emission and developing coordinately with economy and environment can be provided. The spatial econometric results demonstrate that industrial waste gas emission of 31 provinces and cities in China present the evident spatial dependence and positive spillover effects. The economic development and industrial structure are positively and significantly correlated with industrial waste gas emission of China. Technical progress and national policy have preventing abilities to industrial waste gas emission in China. However, population factor does not have a significant effect on China’s industrial waste gas emission. In the future, it is still necessary to continuously improve the level of industrial science and technology, adjust industry structure, enhance and promote the regional cooperation mechanism, and so on.

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    区域创新系统与产业转型耦合协调度分析——以铜陵市为例
    王伟,孙雷
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 204-212.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.006
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (668KB)

    从人地系统的视角考察区域创新系统与资源型城市转型之间的内涵关系,揭示二者之间相互耦合协调的作用机制。通过构建评价指标体系,采用熵值赋权法并运用耦合协调度模型对2008~2013年铜陵市区域创新系统与资源型城市转型发展指数、耦合协调度进行测度、评价和分析。研究表明,在产业转型政策实施和区域创新系统建设条件下,铜陵市区域创新系统与资源型城市转型指数均呈增长趋势;二者的耦合协调度由低度水平跨越式上升至高度水平,呈现非线性的演变特征。并根据研究结论,提出了相关建议。


    This article from the perspective of the human-land system investigate the internal relation and reveal the interaction mechanism of coordination and coupling between regional innovation system and resource city industrial transformation. By building the evaluation index system, adopting the entropy method and using the coupling-coordination degree model, the development index and the coupling-coordination degree of regional innovation system and the resource city industrial transformation in 2008-2013 about Tongling are measured, evaluated and compared. The research shows that in the conditions of industrial transformation policy implementation and regional innovation system construction;the index of regional innovation system and industrial transformation are rising and the coupling-coordination degrees have risen from low level to high level over the medium stage directly, which show the characteristics of evolution to be nonlinear;In recent years the coupling-coordination level showed a downward trend. At last, according to the conclusion, the relevant suggestions are discussed to local government from updating innovation policy,increasing investment,optimizing environment,etc.And the perfect direction of research theory and method were given.

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    城市修建主题公园适宜性评价指标体系研究
    闫闪闪,梁留科,余汝艺,王伟
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 213-221.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.007
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (568KB)

    以国内外城市修建主题公园适宜性研究的已有成果和产业实践为基础,预选出城市修建主题公园适宜性的55个影响因素,运用德尔菲法、自相关分析法、变差系数法对55个因素进行3轮筛选,构建了包含16个因素的评价指标体系,运用AHP和熵权法对指标确权,并对全国33个主要大中城市建设主题公园的适宜性开展实证研究。结果表明:本研究所构建的指标体系仅用28%的指标反映了96%的原始信息,指标体系更简明科学、便于操作;二级指标中的人口因素影响作用显著,三级指标中的城市常住人口、GDP、旅游总人数、地价水平以及周边城市常住人口是影响主题公园在城市选址的关键因素。四大直辖市叠加四大一线城市修建主题公园适宜性最高,海口、银川、西宁等16个城市修建主题公园适宜性指数最低,城市修建主题公园适宜性指数与已有研究成果中的国内城市群发育指数基本一致;实证研究结论与中国主题公园的实际分布情况相吻合,表明指标体系的科学性及可行性,可用以指导主题公园的在全国城市的选址。


    The layout of theme park is the most significant factor which determines the success of theme park project. In this study, we draw on the theoretical and practical experience in the suitability evaluation of building theme parks in urban areas from the previous projects existed in the national and international countries. Based on the previous studies, 55 influencing factors are preliminarily selected on whether it is suitable to build theme parks in urban areas. The 55 influencing factors have been screened for three analytical rounds, by using Delphi method, autocorrelation analysis and coefficient of variation, respectively, to build an evaluation indicator system, in which containing 16 potential indexes. And then, based on the selected theme parks existed in urban cities over the entire country, the AHP and entropy methods are used to evaluate all the potential indexes and calculate the weight of each index. Moreover, empirical research methodology is made to evaluate the suitability of developing theme parks in 33 major large and medium cities in China. From the comprehensive analyses by multiple statistical methods, the results suggested that: 1) The final index system reflects 96% of original information by no more than 30% of initial indexes. Our index system exhibited its efficient and suitability to build theme parks .2) Among the second-round selected indexes, the urban area population factor showed a significant influence on the suitability to build theme park; among the third-round selected indexes, permanent resident population, the GDP, the total number of tourists and land price of an urban area, permanent resident population of surrounding city are the key influence factors affecting the feasibility of developing a theme park in those area. 3) The cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tianjin are ranked among the highest in the suitability index ranking of building a theme park, while Hohhot, Zhuhai, Haikou and other urban areas are ranked among the lowest. On the whole, most of the urban areas in eastern and central China are relatively suitable for building theme parks. 4) The results obtained coincide with the actual development of theme parks in China, which means that the model is scientific and feasible and can be used to guide the site selection for theme parks around the country in future. In conclusion, our study suggested that the city population size may be the major influence factor for building theme park in urban area, and then followed by permanent resident, GDP, population size of tourism, and the price of land use.

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    跨市轨道交通溢价回收策略与多层级管治:以珠三角为例
    林雄斌,杨家文,李贵才,刘龙胜,栾晓帆,陈文
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 222-230.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.008
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (3605KB)

    随着城市化和机动化的发展,跨市轨道交通建设成为应对交通拥堵,引导土地开发与通勤结构,促进区域一体化的策略。面对轨道交通巨额建设运营成本,多层级政府管治(Multi-level Governance)下的投融资模式和溢价回收(Value Capture)策略成为推动跨市轨道交通建设的基础。目前,对跨市交通设施的溢价回收和多层级管治还缺乏系统讨论。以珠三角为例,实证分析跨市轨道交通多层级政府的合作博弈、投融资模式与溢价回收策略,重点论述由“省部合作”向“省市合作”联合开发的溢价回收策略转变。研究发现,珠三角跨市轨道交通联合开发面临土地、规划和财税等制度约束以及政府间利益博弈,省政府主导的“省市合作”交通土地综合开发模式超越单个城市政府,实现区域层面的交通溢价回收,能为中国城际轨道交通融资和多层级管治提供参考。


    Under the context of rapid urbanization and motorization in urban China, the demand for multi-jurisdictional passenger transport is becoming increasingly significant for regional integrated development. Following this trend, inter-city passenger rail transit has been viewed by the local governments as an important alternative to driving, particularly when issues of road congestion, land development and regional integration are considered. However, how to obtain the capital to cover huge constructive and operational costs is challenging inter-city passenger rail transit. Current literature has focused on funding for municipal passenger rail transit and the issue of value capture policies and distribution arrangement. The value capture setup for inter-city rail transit has rarely been discussed. In this research, we first review some perceived difficulties and strategies for value capture in China, and then we present a case study of Inter-city Passenger Rail Transit in the Zhujiang River Delta. The case study describes the relevant planning and development processes. In particular, it explains how the funding for this project has evolved from a collaborative effort between Guangdong Provincial Government and The Ministry of Railways to that between the Provincial Government and the relevant municipal governments. The ending arrangement is a new value-capture mechanism for funding the inter-city passenger rail. The innovation of this funding mechanism and the concurrent implementation difficulties are valuable experience for other mega-regions where similar inter-city transport projects have been considered.

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    广州购物中心时空演变及对城市商业空间结构的影响研究
    张小英,巫细波
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 231-238.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.009
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (2633KB)

    以购物中心为研究对象,选择广州为案例地,采用ArcGIS和SPSS软件进行空间属性表达和统计分析,探讨购物中心时空演变特征及与城市商业空间结构的关系,得出以下结论:广州购物中心数量及规模增长呈现出周期性和跳跃性的特征,购物中心的分布主要集聚于中心城区,其空间分布格局正逐步由集聚中心城区向集聚与扩散并存的方向发展。从购物中心时空演变的影响因素分析,人口规模与购物中心数量及规模存在显著的正相关性,购物中心空间布局的交通指向性明显,购物中心时空演变还受城市空间发展战略、城市用地结构调整影响较大,而消费者一站式购物、体验消费趋势也对购物中心空间布局以及经营产生重要影响。最后,探讨了购物中心发展对城市商业空间结构的影响。购物中心发展促进城市商业中心等级体系呈现扁平化,有利于城市多中心商业空间结构体系的形成,与此同时,购物中心也影响了城市商业业态结构,提升了商业中心现代化水平。


    Commercial space is typical of concentration of various activities, and thus always has great impacts on urban development and the evolution of spatial structure. The research on commercial space is a very important domain in Urban Geography, among which the impacts of shopping malls on the structure of urban commercial space has gradually been focused on by some scholars recently. Employing the software of ArcGIS and SPSS to conduct spatial and statistic analysis, respectively, this article explores the spatial -temporal patterns of the development of shopping malls in Guangzhou City and their relationship with the change of urban commercial spatial structure. The following conclusions have been drawn from the research: Firstly, the increase in the number and scale of shopping malls takes on a cyclical and jumping pattern, which is closely related to urban development. As to the spatial pattern, they originally concentrated in the urban center and gradually diffuse outward to the urban outskirts over time. Analysis of the elements underlying the spatial-temporal evolution of shopping malls reveals that population size is positively correlated with the number and scale of shopping malls, while correlation between population density and distribution of shopping malls is not obvious. Their locations almost coincide with the places with good transportation accessibility. The location of metro stations greatly influence the spatial distribution of shopping malls. Secondly, the spatial-temporal pattern of shopping malls is also greatly determined by the government’s strategy over urban spatial structure and the change in land uses. Thirdly, the rising of the commercial style of one-stop and experiential consumption also imposes large impact on the pattern. Finally, the paper examines the impacts of the development of shopping malls on urban commercial spatial structure. A flat ranking system of urban commercial centers has been brought about by the development of shopping malls, promoting the formation of polycentric urban commercial system and the upgrading of commercial levels. Based on the above analysis, the paper has some implications for the location choice of shopping malls in Guangzhou. Constrained by limited land, traffic congestion, etc., the number of shopping malls in Guangzhou will not increase too much. The growth of population size and improvement in traffic infrastructures will be conducive to the development of shopping malls in the inner side of suburb area. In the outer side of suburbs, the strong radiation of shopping malls can be taken advantages to advance the commercial environment. The city government can guide the orderly development of shopping centers based on different regional characteristics.

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    人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调性测度及优化——以南昌市为例
    吕添贵,吴次芳,李洪义,游和远,蔡潇
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 239-246.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.010
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (659KB)

    人口与土地是城镇化的重要组成部分,分析二者之间状态演化对促进城市健康发展具有重要意义。在界定人口城镇化与土地城镇化二者概念基础上,基于人口构成、人口素质、人口生活、城镇规模、城镇投入、城镇产出等构建评价指标体系,并通过耦合协调模型对省会型城市南昌市2002~2011年两者之间的协调关系进行测度和分析,结果表明:人口城镇化指数与土地城镇化指数呈波动变化并持续上涨,城镇发展由土地滞后型向人口滞后型转变;人口城镇化与土地城镇化的协调状态由失调衰退区向过渡协调区演进,发展类型则由高度不协调状态向勉强协调状态过渡。在此基础上分析了南昌市人口城镇化速度滞后于土地城镇化速度的原因,指出两者关系主要受到城市发展外在制度与内在基础的共同作用,并认为构建人口与土地城镇化双重优化路径是协调人口城镇化与土地城镇化同步发展的有效途径。


    Land and population are two key and interactive factors in urbanization, and it’s extremely important to coordinate them for healthy urbanization. To measure and analyze their coupling relationship, this study established an index system including population structure, life quality, urban size, input and output on the basis of defining population urbanization and land urbanization. Then this system was applied empirically in Nanchang, the capital city of Jiangxi province located in the middle of China. The results showed that: 1) Both the index of population urbanization and that of land urbanization were rising continuously with fluctuations, and there was a shift from land lagging urbanization to population lagging urbanization in Nanchang between 2002 and 2011. 2) The coordination relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization changed from deterioration to optimization, resulting in the transfer of urban development status from high inconsistence to week coordination. The study also discussed the reasons behind the results, indicating the discordance of urban development was induced by both external institutional systems and internal basic conditions. It suggested that it’s necessary to take measures to coordinate the relationship between land and population to promote healthy urbanization.

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    影响海岸带盐沼土壤有机质、TN和TP含量时空变化的关键因子:潮水和植被
    王进欣,张威,郭楠,李超,王今殊
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 247-255.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.011
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (580KB)

    为了更好地理解在潮水和植被交互作用梯度上有机质、全氮和全磷分布的特殊性,分别于生长季和非生长季在苏北盐沼沿近潮沟带和远潮沟带2条样线布设9个固定采样区,采集土壤样品,测定土壤有机质、全氮和全磷的含量。结果表明:植被和潮水的交互作用是决定土壤有机质、全氮和全磷时空变化的关键因素。相对于潮水,植被的影响更为稳定和持久;盐沼土壤有机质和全氮含量具有显著的空间和月份变化,空间变化主要包括植被带(潮水)梯度上和样带间(潮流)的差异,在植被带(潮水)梯度上植被带高于光滩,而植被带间呈现由海向陆的递减趋势,即互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)>盐地碱蓬(Suaeda salsa)>獐茅(Aeluropus littoralis)>芦苇( Phragmites australis);有机质样带间差异表现为在低位盐沼远潮沟带大于近潮沟带,而中位盐沼却是近潮沟带大于远潮沟带,全磷含量时间和空间变化上均不具显著性;pH、土壤含水量和盐分含量等与潮水作用直接相关的因子与距海距离呈负相关关系,土壤有机质、全氮和全磷与距海距离也表现为负相关关系,而土壤有机质、全氮和全磷含量与pH、土壤含水量及盐分含量等因子为正相关关系,一定程度上诠释了潮水对土壤有机质、全氮和全磷含量变化的影响。


    Coastal salt marshes are important terrestrial ecosystems, soil is one of the main accumulation pools of the organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus, which plays an important role in the global carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. In order to better define particularity of SOM, TN, and TP distribution along the spatial gradient about interactions between the tide and of vegetation, the contents of SOM, TN, and TP were seasonally measured along two elevational gradients of a coastal salt marsh of eastern China. Main results are as follows, the tide and vegetation interaction is factor of impact on temporal and spatial variation of SOM, TN, and TP in coastal salt marsh, with respect to the effects of tidal influence vegetation is more stable and persistent; Spatial and month variation of SOM and TN content of salt marsh are significant, spatial variation includes change along gradient of vegetation (tide) and differences between the (tidal currents) of transects, the content of vegetation zone is higher than that of tidal flat along gradient of vegetation (tide), the content of SOM, TN, and TP show decreasing from sea to land on vegetation zones, that is Spartina alterniflora>Suaeda salsa>Aeluropus littoralis>Phragmites australis; Difference between two transects of SOM shows that content of SOM, TN, and TP far tidal creeks greater than that of near tidal creek at low salt marsh, and content of SOM, TN, and TP near tidal creek greater than that of far tidal creeks at median salt marsh, spatial and temporal variation of TP is not significant; pH, soil moisture, salt content and other directly related to the tidal effect factor are negative correlation to distance away from the sea, contents of SOM, TN, and TP are also negative correlation to distance away from the sea, and the contents of SOM, TN, and TP are positively correlated to pH, soil moisture and salt content and other factors, to a certain extent, it explained that tidal influence on contents and variation of SOM, TN, and TP.

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    沿海滩涂围垦区土壤质量演变研究——以江苏省如东县为例
    王琪琪,濮励杰,朱明,李建国,张濛
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 256-264.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.012
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (559KB)

    对江苏省如东县不同年限的滩涂围垦区和光滩土壤样品进行分析,运用SPSS软件对垦区间土壤指标进行单因素方差分析和差异显著性检验,采用土壤质量综合指数法进行土壤质量评价,引入土壤质量障碍因子诊断模型分析关键改良因子。结果表明:滩涂围垦60 a来,研究区土壤质量随围垦时间变化轨迹为“急剧提高—相对稳定—持续提高”。围垦前10 a土壤质量急剧提高,土壤质量指数(SQI)由0.19增至0.37,年均增长11.84%,垦区差异显著;围垦10~30 aSQI由0.37增至0.42,年均增长0.54%,围垦30~40 aSQI由0.42增至0.45,年均增长0.71%,垦区差异不明显,因此围垦30 a左右土壤质量处于相对稳定状态;围垦40~60 a土壤质量持续提升,SQI由0.45增至0.56,年均增长1.22%,垦区差异显著。土壤质量的障碍因子分析显示较低的TOC、TN和粒含量是土壤质量的主要限制因子,且与pH、盐分显著负相关,因此盐碱度降低是研究区土壤质量提升的根本原因,肥力提高以及土壤质地的改善是土壤质量进一步提升的关键。


    Reclaiming coastal wetlands for cultivate lands transformed the wetland soil to agricultural soil, soil properties changed a lot. To explore the effects of soil ecological environment due to the reclamation activities in coastal zone and determine the key modified factors, it can provide guidance for soil improvement. In this article, soil samples collected from reclamation area under different years and tidal flats in Rudong Country of Jiangsu Province were analyzed. ANOVA was used to test the difference among soil indicators in different reclamation area(LSD test). The method of soil quality index (SQI) is used to evaluate the soil quality. The model of limiting factors diagnosis is used to analyze the key improvement factors of soil quality. The result shows that since 60 years from reclamation, the trajectory of soil quality change in study area is “improve sharply-relative stability-improve sustainability”. SQI increased sharply from 0.19 to 0.37 at the first 10 years after reclamation, average annual rate of growth is 11.84%,the difference is significant; SQI increased from 0.37 to 0.42 between 10 years to 30 years after reclamation and average annual rate of growth is 0.54%; SQI increased from 0.42 to 0.45 between 30 years to 40 years after reclamation and average annual rate of growth is 0.71%, there has no obvious difference. Therefore soil quality is in a relatively stable state after reclamation at 30 years. While SQI increased sustainability from 0.45 to 0.56 between 40 years to 60 years after reclamation and average annual rate of growth is 1.22%, the difference is significant. The limiting factors diagnosis showed that the lower TOC, TN and clay content are the major limiting factors of soil quality and have significant negative correlation with pH and salt, therefore decreased salinization is the basic reason for improving soil quality after reclamation. The improvement of fertility as well as soil texture are the key to further improve soil quality.

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    安徽省县际经济联系网络结构演变及影响因素
    郑文升,姜玉培,卓蓉蓉,闰记影,王晓芳
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 265-273.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.013
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (2243KB)

    选取安徽省全部78个县级经济区域作为网络节点,采用修正后的1996年、2004年及2013年的经济联系强度反映节点之间的联系,运用GIS工具和社会网络、空间马尔科夫等方法分析县际经济联系网络结构的动态变化及其影响因素。结果表明:安徽省县际经济联系网络密度不断增强,县际经济联系逐渐多向化、稠密化、纵深化;合肥中心城区一直处于网络中心,经济扩散能力不断增强;无为、怀远、肥东等县逐渐成为衔接地区经济联系的“门户节点”;县际经济联系网络结构具有分层集聚特征,基本上形成“四大八小”的空间格局;影响县际经济联系网络结构演变的因素主要包括要素集聚与扩散、空间近邻作用、交通可达性改善、政策激励与引导。


    Study in regional economic linkages is one of the most important aspects of economic geography and regional research. The approach of social network analysis (SNA) has emerged as a key technique in study of regional economic linkages. Taking the 78 county areas in Anhui Province as network nodes to constructed the economic linkage network, the connections between nodes were evaluated by the revised economic relation intensity in 1996, 2004 and 2013 in this article. Firstly, we used GIS tools to map the structure of economic linkage network at county level in Anhui Province in 1996, 2004 and 2013. Then, under the support of social network analysis software UCINET, our study analyzed the centrality from three aspects: degree centrality, closeness centrality and betweenness centrality. Furthermore, we marked out four cohesive subgroups of economic linkage network at county level in Anhui Province. For the influencing factors, this article constructed a spatial markov matrix for county-level GDP per capita in Anhui Province to examine spatial adjacency effect, and the evolution of traffic accessibility at county level was calculated by average traffic time from a node to all other nodes. The results show that: 1) The density of economic linkage network in Anhui Province has been continuously boosting in 2013, from 0.307 in 1996 to 0.712. Besides, the economic linkages between counties have been developing toward multi-direction, densification and deepened way, which was good to the formation of economic linkage network; 2) The central city of Hefei, the capital city of Anhui Province, was the center of economic linkage networkwith its capacity of economic spread has been increasingly enlarging. Simultaneously, Wuwei, Huaiyuan and Feidong have gradually became the portal nodes that play an important role in promoting regional economic connection; 3) Cohesive subgroup is an effective way to the construction of inter-county economic linkage network. The small group analysis can more availably reveal the source of development and competitiveness improvement of the less important nodes. 4) Hierarchical agglomeration was a characteristic of the structure of economic linkage network and mainly embodied in the spatial pattern called “four main regions and eight sub regions”. 5) The factors influenced the evolution of the structure of economic linkage network mainly included the agglomeration and diffusion of elements, spatial adjacency effect, the improvement of traffic accessibility and the policy motivation and guidance. Based on all of the above, the policy recommendations for promoting regional coordinate and integrated development were also discussed.

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    基于服务空间视角的长春市城市功能空间扩展研究
    申庆喜,李诚固,马佐澎,周国磊,胡述聚
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 274-282.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.014
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (2774KB)

    中国快速城镇化背景下城市功能空间迅速扩展引起了广泛关注。以长春市用地现状图和统计资料为数据源,借助ArcGIS和SPSS软件平台,引用多种模型基于服务空间视角研究了1995年以来长春市城市功能空间扩展的特征、效应与驱动机制。研究发现:1995~2013年长春市城市空间扩展迅速,扩展模式整体上以圈层式近域扩张为主,城市与服务空间整体的偏离问题始终存在,城市开发建设过程中服务空间明显滞后于城市空间的扩张。城市空间快速扩展产生了城市蔓延、功能空间失衡和城市功能空间的优化升级等效应。行政因素和社会经济因素是城市空间扩展的主要驱动因素,回归模型结果表明人口城市化和人居环境水平的提高是城市功能空间本质内涵扩展的社会经济核心因素。


    In the background of rapid urbanization, the expansion of urban functional space is causing widespread concern. The rapid expansion of urban area brings about a series of social and ecological problems. The focus of study is mismatch between expansion of urban area and service facilities. Our study makes use of land status maps and statistical information regarding Changchun City. It is also discussed that the features, effects and driving mechanisms of the functional space expansion of Changchun by citing a variety of models and spatial perspectives based on the availability of service space since 1995. ArcGIS and SPSS were used to reach and support our findings. The study’s findings are as follows: 1) The urban space of Changchun City expanded rapidly between 1995 and 2013. The pattern of urban expansion is still displaying the close field extension known as “circle mode”. Overall deviation problems between the city and service space have always existed. In the process of urban development and construction, the imbalance between functional space and urban space becomes more prominent. 2) The rapid expansion of Changchun’s urban space sparked a series of negative effects, including urban sprawl and an imbalance in urban functional space. However, expansion also promotes the evolution of functional space. The polycentric intra-urban structure has emerged in the metropolitan area. 3) This study also probes the dynamic mechanism of the evolution of the functional space of Changchun City, including administrative and socio-economic factors. We conclude macro urban development strategy results in mismatch between urban and service space, that policy reform promotes expansion of urban area, that socio-economic development is the source for the evolution of urban space. Through the establishment of regression model, the study shows that urbanization in terms of people and the improvement of urban living environments are social and economic core factors of the expansion of the essential connotation of urban functional space.

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    江苏沿海经济发展的区域差异及空间格局演变
    陈洪全,张云峰
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 283-288.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.015
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (2046KB)

    以县域为基本单元,以GDP和人口为指标,运用绝对差异指标和相对差异指标等经典统计方法,以及可分解的泰尔指数和区域分离指数,分析了2002~2012年江苏省沿海经济发展差异的演变趋势和空间变化特征。研究结果表明:江苏沿海经济发展的绝对差异一直在不断扩大,相对差异基本呈缓慢缩小趋势。总体差异在波动中逐渐下降,其主要来源于区内差异,其中盐城区内差异贡献率最大。区域分离系数以2006年为拐点,呈倒“U”型变化特征,区域差异逐渐趋同。导致区域差异的原因主要是历史基础、区位条件和政策措施。空间结构的变化反映了政府发展战略的连续变化过程,体现了区域发展的非均衡性。


    The article, taking counties as basic regiona1 study units, explores the spatial pattern of economic development in Jiangsu coastal region. The classical statistical methods and spatial statistical methods were used to analyze and measure time and space disparity of Jiangsu coastal economy in 2002-2012. The results showed: 1) The economic development of Jiangsu coastal area has been more and more open and concentration since Jiangsu coastal development became national strategy in 2009. The relative difference is slowly narrowing due to the difference rate of economic growth among three coastal cities, namely Nantong City, Yancheng City and Lianyungang City. The absolute difference of regional economy in Jiangsu coastal has been expanding due to the difference of development foundation and location conditions among three coastal cities. 2) From the Thail index change, the overall economic difference decreased gradually in Jiangsu coastal area. The mainly reason is rapid development of the economy in three coastal cities. It is groups difference rather than internal economic differences to result in Jiangsu coastal regional economic differences. The internal economic difference of Yancheng is the biggest in three coastal cities. 3) The interrelation between economic growth and spatial change of regional difference are analyzed based on regional separation index. The separation index presented an inverted “U” characteristics and the turning appeared in 2006. The main reason is regional conditions, historic foundation, development speed and policy measures.

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    基于面板数据的旅游经济效应空间分异及优化研究——以山东省为例
    周霓,熊爱华
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 289-295.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.016
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (854KB)

    依据2000~2012年山东省17个地市的GDP和旅游总收入数据,构建面板数据模型,用定量的方法测度山东省17个地市的旅游业发展和经济增长之间是否存在长期协整关系,并对存在协整关系的地市进一步进行Granger因果检验和面板数据模型回归分析。结果表明: 山东省东中西三大地域板块旅游经济效应空间分异现象明显,东部地区的旅游总收入已经成为了经济增长的Granger因,旅游业发展已经对经济增长起到了良好的推动作用,青岛和烟台的旅游总收入和经济增长已经存在双向Granger因果关系;中部地区的经济增长是旅游总收入增长的Granger因,经济增长对旅游业发展起到了保障和助推的双重作用,特别是东营和枣庄已经成为山东省旅游业发展的新亮点;西部地区的经济增长和旅游总收入之间尚未形成协整关系。根据研究结果,给出山东省旅游业均衡、健康发展的建议和对策。


    In this article, the panel data of GDP and tourism income of 17 cities in Shandong Province in 2000-2012 are employed to establish the mathematics model to measure the long-run cointegration relationship between tourism development and economic growth in the 17 cities of Shandong Province. Furthermore, the Granger cause test and panel data regression analyses have been done in the cities in which the long-run cointegration relationship exists. The results from the analyses show that there are significant regional differences concerning the tourism economic effect in Shandong Province. 1) In the eastern regional cities, tourism income is the Granger cause of the economic growth, and the tourism development has played an important role in promoting the economic growth, with the cities of Qingdao and Yantai having developed a mutual Granger cause relationship between the tourism income and economic growth. 2) In the central regional cities, economic growth is the Granger cause of tourism income growth, and the economic growth has promoted and protected the tourism development, featuring the cities of Dongying and Zaozhuang as new star cities in tourism development. 3) In the western regional cities, the long-run cointegration relationship between the tourism income and economic growth hasn’t been established. To conclude it, the study puts forward some suggestions in policy formulation to promote the equilibrium and sustainable development of regional tourism economy of Shandong Province.

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    北疆地区1961~2010年极端气温事件变化特征
    张延伟,葛全胜,姜逢清,郑景云
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 296-302.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.017
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (2348KB)

    根据1961~2010年北疆地区34个气象台站逐日平均气温、最高气温和最低气温资料,定义高温和低温的阈值、频率及其强度,并采用线性趋势、EOF等方法对其研究分析。研究表明:北疆地区的高温阈值研究发现空间分布变化特征基本呈现从东南向西北规律变化趋势。时间变化趋势分析发现该地区高温阈值呈现上升趋势。其中,夏季上升幅度最小,冬季上升幅度最大。频数分析发现天山山区极端高温频数变化要高于其他地区变化频数。北疆地区的低温阈值研究发现空间分布变化特征基本也呈现从东南向西北规律变化趋势。频数分析发现夏季频数总体呈现下降趋势。通过线性趋势和EOF分析表明北疆地区高温和低温事件强度、频数呈现增加的趋势。由于北疆属于干旱与半干旱地区,生态环境较为脆弱。极端气温趋势的增加会影响到该地区的水文、工业和农业管理。


    The high and low temperature events were analyzed based on the daily temperature observation data from 34 meteorological stations in North Xinjiang during 1961-2010 by using the methods of linear regression analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The results show that: 1) The spatial distribution of the extreme highest temperature in North Xinjiang presents low value in the southeast part, and high value in the northwest part. And threshold value of the extreme highest temperature are a consistent upward trend, amount increases obviously in winter. The number of the extreme highest temperature processes increase linearly, while in Mid-Tianshan Mountains, there is an opposite trend. 2) The spatial distribution of the extreme low temperature in North Xinjiang presents low value in the east part, and high value in the west part. And threshold value of the extreme low temperature are a consistent downward trend in east and a consistent upward in west.The number of the extreme low temperature processes increase linearly, while in summer, there is a decrease trend. 3) As North of Xinjiang is an arid, semiarid-region, it means that the increase of extreme climate events should not be helpful for hydrologists, agriculturalists, emergency managers, industrialists.

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    南沙红树林湿地公园水环境质量时空差异分析——基于改进后倍斜率聚类分析的视角
    宋焱,徐颂军,刘贤赵,张勇,邱鹏华,牛安逸,许观嫦
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 303-311.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.018
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (878KB)

    于2007年和2014年的丰水期和枯水期分别测量了南沙红树林湿地公园一期、二期及其附近河涌8个采样点的水体温度、pH、DO、COD、BOD5、TP和TN等物化指标。通过对比监测结果和倍斜率聚类评价结果发现:研究区水质总体上处于-Ⅲ级或-Ⅳ级的“尚清洁”状态;红树林湿地公园一期2008年对外开放后至2014年,水环境指标中pH变化范围不大,DO、COD含量有所下降,BOD5、TP和TN含量均呈增加趋势;2007年南沙红树林湿地公园一期采样点W1、W2、W3水质优于河涌采样点W7和W8,河涌采样点W7和W8水质优于红树林湿地公园二期采样点W4、W5、W6;2014年南沙红树林湿地公园二期采样点W4、W5、W6水质优于红树林湿地公园一期采样点W1、W2、W3和河涌采样点W7、W8;8个采样点中水质改善最明显的是二期采样点W6,水质下降最明显的是一期采样点W3;丰水期河涌水质2014年较2007年有所好转,但红树林湿地公园水质无论枯水期亦或丰水期,多数情况下优于河涌水质;研究区域水环境质量的时空差异总规律为2007~2014年南沙红树林湿地公园二期水质好转,一期水质有所下降。


    This study constructs the wider twice-slope clustering membership functions of the clustering index — dissolved oxygen (DO), based on the nondimensionalization of the monitoring results of water environment and the pollution classification standard. The physical chemistry indexes (e.g., temperature, pH, DO, COD, BOD5, TP and TN) of eight sampling sites were measured in the Nansha Mangrove Wetland Park, and the brook nearby at the abundant, medium and dry seasons in 2007 and 2014. The comparison of the monitoring and evaluation results of the eight sampling points in 2007 and 2014 shows the following findings: on the whole, the water quality in the study area is in the health or sub-health state (level Ⅱ-Ⅲ or level Ⅱ-Ⅳ). Since its opening to outside as a tourist scenic spot, the Mangrove Wetland Park has shown some changes in the indexes of water environment in 2008-2014. The monitoring results demonstrate that the change in pH is very small. At the same time, the DO has decreased, while the BOD5 has increased. A decrease is also observed in the COD content, by contrast, the TP and TN contents have shown a trend of increase. In 2007, the water quality of the sampling points W1, W2 and W3 in the Nansha Mangrove Wetland Park was better than that of the sampling points W7 and W8 in the brook. The water quality of the sampling points W7 and W8 in the brook was better than that of the sampling points W4, W5 and W6 in the Nansha Mangrove Wetland Park . In 2014, the water quality of the sampling points W4, W5 and W6 showed a dramatic improvement and was better than that of the sampling points W1, W2 and W3 in the Nansha Mangrove Wetland Park and the sampling points W7 and W8 in the brook. Among the eight sampling sites, W6 in the Nansha Mangrove Wetland Park showed the greatest improvement, while the sampling point W3 in the Nansha Mangrove Wetland Park observed the greatest declining in water quality. Although the water quality of the brook was improved at abundant season in 2014, the water quality of the Mangrove Wetland Park, at either abundant or dry seasons, is at least not less than and in most cases superior to the water quality of the brook. The general rule of the time and space differences of the water environmental quality in the study area is that the water quality of the Mangrove Wetland Park has been improved, while that of the Mangrove Wetland Park shows declining a trend in 2007-2014.

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    基于参与式调查与主成分分析的金塔绿洲变化驱动力分析
    谢余初,张影,钱大文,巩杰,颉耀文,常根应
    地理科学. 2016, 36 (2): 312-320.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.019
    摘要   RICH HTML PDF (809KB)

    内陆河流域绿洲变化驱动机制是旱区绿洲学研究的核心内容之一。利用1963~2010年的Keyhole存档相片、KATE-200卫星航片、Landsat遥感影像等多源数据,获取了金塔绿洲空间分布及面积变化信息。在此基础上,结合参与式调查和主成分分析方法定量分析绿洲变化的驱动机制。研究表明:近47 a来金塔绿洲总体呈现增长的趋势,绿洲规模不断扩大,至2010年绿洲面积高达539.47 km2。其主要原因是气候变化、人口增加、水资源的开发利用与科技进步、社会经济发展及政策等因子的相互交织作用。气候变化是背景因子,人文因子是绿洲变化的主成分因素,且在不同历史社会背景下,其主导人文因素也不同。


    As a unique geographical landscape of arid area, oasis was the main space of human activity in arid area, and its change was the most direct reflection of environmental change. Recently, spatiotemporal change of oasis and its driving forces was one of the hot issues of oasis study. Jinta oasis, a typical artificial and agricultural oasis in the lower reaches of Beida River Basin in arid China, had experienced drastic change in the past 50 years, was selected as a case to study the spatiotemporal change and its driving forces. Based on Keyhole satellite photograph, KATE-200, Landsat MSS, TM and ETM images in 1963-2010, as well as field interviews and governmental socioeconomic statistics data, this study investigated and discussed the driving forces of Jinta oasis change during 1963-2010 by combining with participatory rural appraisal and principal component analysis. The results showed that oasis area and scale expanded gradually, and the area achieved its maximum with 539.47 km2 in 2010. Oasis changes had been resulted from the interaction of natural environmental changes and human activities. Human driving factors include population, policy, economic development, the progress of agricultural science and technology, environmental awareness, while the natural environment change was been represented by climatic factors (such as rainfall, air temperature) and runoff. In our study, the first and second main components of driving forces were population growth, water resources development and utilization, technical renovation, economic development and policy, the thirds was annual temperature, suggesting that human driving force played a dominant role. In addition, the main human driving forces behind oasis changes were varied in different historical periods. In 1963-1980, the dominant driving force was population growth and policy, whereas the dominant driving forces in 1980-1990 were the changes in agricultural production ways (such as household contract responsibility system) and population growth. In the period of 1990-2000, all sorts of driving forces interacted and associated mutually. Since 2002, economic benefit and water utilization were the dominant factors.

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